I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
If I was in the vaccine task force I'd be buying up as much H1 2021 Moderna vaccine as possible to compliment the Pfizer deliveries we already have. There's nothing to gain by waiting for AZ to report as we can sell the unused capacity of that on to other nations or hold them in reserve in case a booster is needed with a different vector.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Noone has completed phase 3 trials yet, the moderna news is based on an interim peak, the same as Pfizer was. Not sure how many events the moderna (Presumably placebo group) has had.
The primary endpoint of the Phase 3 COVE study is based on the analysis of COVID-19 cases confirmed and adjudicated starting two weeks following the second dose of vaccine. This first interim analysis was based on 95 cases, of which 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 5 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.5% (p <0.0001). A secondary endpoint analyzed severe cases of COVID-19 and included 11 severe cases (as defined in the study protocol) in this first interim analysis. All 11 cases occurred in the placebo group and none in the mRNA-1273 vaccinated group. </i> https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy
If I was in the vaccine task force I'd be buying up as much H1 2021 Moderna vaccine as possible to compliment the Pfizer deliveries we already have. There's nothing to gain by waiting for AZ to report as we can sell the unused capacity of that on to other nations or hold them in reserve in case a booster is needed with a different vector.
I presume Moderna sales hotline might be a bit busy this morning.
Decent effort Kinabalu but not your best work I'm afraid. Thanks anyway.
Seems to be lamenting that Brexit happened whilst also lamenting that Brexit died (he says).
Of course Kinabalu isn`t above winding you up, PT.
Well I wrote it in split voice - half Leaver half Quisling - for publication on the event of that Ref2 that was imo never happening, happening. Suppose if we get a BINO it still works.
I also have the musical version with me singing and thrashing away on guitar.
If people annoy me enough in the coming days and weeks I'll post that.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
While I utterly detest Farage and wouldn't ever vote for him, I can understand why people like him, which isn't the case with Johnson who is so obviously a fake.
Used to really rate him but his foray into the bowels of Trump has soiled him irrevocably in my eyes. There's no coming back from that.
You probably need to work on the difference between:
1. An effective politician; and 2. A politician you don't agree with.
Nige is both of course and the latter doesn't alter the former.
A politician who is loathed by 3/4 of the population even if loved by the other 1/4 can never be really successful. Even Trump managed to fire up enough opponents to see him off. People like Farage need a fascist revival before they 'll become more than a joke.
There has been a fascist revival. Just because they don't wear silly uniforms (well not in public anyway) and talk about liquidating swathes of people they don't like doesn't mean that they are not very real and very dangerous. Brexit is the manifestation of 21st century fascism; divisive and irrational, it has fed off all the same fears and loathing that fascism has always sought to exploit. Johnson is clearly not a fascist, a populist egotist perhaps, but he has been a very useful idiot for the likes of Farage and Putin, both of whom most definitely are.
There is the alternative view that that it was lining up behind Farage that made Leaving look like a racist/fascist enterprise. It's certainly one of the main reasons why 'Leavers' -to this day- are held in so little regard by 'Remainers'.
Two points on this: Voters have never voted in Farage personally and have had lots of chances.
Second, the view of Remainers about Leavers, if true, is misconceived. The fascist vote in this country is small. Over the years leaving has been Labour party policy and a view held within mainstream centrist politics. At the referendum Leavers had no choice but to be voting the same as a few extremists. No doubt a few extremes supported Remain too. So what. Overwhelmingly voters are centre, centre left and centre right. There aren't enough extremists to go round.
How is Trump going to claim credit for this being announced 3 weeks too late..?
Well it was funded by project warp speed. I think in this case he can claim some credit for that (how much personal input he had is a different matter).
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
A strategy of the more efficacious vaccine for the very vulnerable and a less so one for the less vulnerable is perfectly sensible, particularly if the former is in limited supply for whatever the reason.
Which is fine, but I think it's irresponsible to be labelling AZ as less effective until we know what the results are. I'd be surprised if it was anything less than 90%. The fact that we're this far in and haven't had the requisite number of events shows it is probably highly effective.
The Pfizer logistics aren't going to be cheap either.
Who cares? At £100 per dose it works out at £11bn to vaccinate everyone in the UK who is eligible. That's literally nothing to get the economy back to normal.
I think this is a very good point by Mike and a great tip with SMarkets.
I'm on Ossoff at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.
Speaking of Betfair, they are still not settling up on Biden 300-329 ECVs. I think this is really poor and I have complained. What with this and the kind of shenanigans that Mike highlights I am not impressed with them right now.
Saying the same thing every morning won’t make Betfair settle early. Remember they’re a broker not a bookmaker, it’s not their money they’ll be paying out. It’ll be settled when the results are final.
When they do finally pay out, put everything of Lewis Hamilton for the Sports Personality award, he’s 1.85 on Betfair at the moment, but who else has any significant sporting achievements this year?
All this talk of wokery....can anyone in good conscience be happy making money out of an aggressive tax avoider who earns $54 million a year?
Pretty sure he pays more UK tax than you (and probably any of us) do, Roger.
Living in Monaco?
“A sunny place for shady people” remains the best description of Monaco I have come across
Also applied to the Soggy Dollar bar on Jost van Dyke, as I remember the t-shirt explaining.
The Pfizer logistics aren't going to be cheap either.
The UK aren't even be paying £3, due to funding the research we are getting mates rates. Does feel a bit like AZ / Oxford might be under pricing theirs if other people sell at 10x.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
It's a different way of using the spike protein. Similar to the method used by the Russian vaccine.
The vector is different, but the use of the spike protein is the same.
Yes. Moderna and Pfizer are mRNA vaccines, and AstraZeneca and the Russian one are vector vaccines using different vectors. They are all targeting the spike protein.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
A strategy of the more efficacious vaccine for the very vulnerable and a less so one for the less vulnerable is perfectly sensible, particularly if the former is in limited supply for whatever the reason.
Which is fine, but I think it's irresponsible to be labelling AZ as less effective until we know what the results are. I'd be surprised if it was anything less than 90%. The fact that we're this far in and haven't had the requisite number of events shows it is probably highly effective.
We don't know. I was just hypothesing if they meet their own target for success of gen 1 of about 60%, that leaves UK government with a tricky decision. Obviously we all hope it is also 90% effective.
The Pfizer logistics aren't going to be cheap either.
Who cares? At £100 per dose it works out at £11bn to vaccinate everyone in the UK who is eligible. That's literally nothing to get the economy back to normal.
The real tests for these various vaccines is long term effectiveness, which none of them are in any position to demonstrate at the moment, and how infectious vaccinated people are, because although we want to stop people getting ill we also want to stop the virus spreading.
So it's great news that two vaccines now appear to be good enough to use, but we are some way away from being able to declare any vaccine the best one.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
CycleFree_Junior's restaurant business?
No. She has that covered.
Clearing out a house after the builders have been in it for 15 months. They’re still there of course. Husband - who subscribes to the “It’ll come in useful one day” religion (it doesn’t, he doesn’t know what it is and even if he did couldn’t remember where he put it) is away so I have a golden opportunity - and a skip - to do some very necessary clearing out so that the decorators can do their bit. But - aiee! - the amount of dust is phenomenal: clouds and clouds of it. Probably more dangerous for me than bloody Covid.
The only useful tip I can give on here is never to build a house during lockdown. It will be a year late and billions over budget and I only did the damn thing so that I could create a magnificent garden in the land surrounding it, which currently looks as desolate as the Somme after the battle.
This is an interesting thought, but do we think many GOP voters will still think in January that Trump might hold on? Surely by then the vast majority will either accept he lost or think he was cheated out of a second term, the latter might even raise their turnout likelihood.
With regret I'm leaning towards just backing the GOP in both seats.
I'm backing the GOP for different reasons.
Once the electoral college meets and confirms Biden as the winner the dynamic will change in Georgia.
The dynamic will be stop the Dems from controlling all three of the White House, House, and Senate, that'll get GOPers in Georgia out and voting.
It will be interesting as the Dems actually have a very good ground game in Georgia now. So I think they will keep up momentum and we might see 2 very very tight races, as being in control of all 3 levels as a reason to vote could energise both sides to turn up.
What proportion of Republican voters might be dissuaded from voting in the Senate elections as a result of their party's lurch away from respecting democratic norms, including very explicitly the two candidates concerned who called for the Republican SoS's resignation?
Judging from polling so far I don't think it will get beyond single figure percentages. However, even if one in 20 Republicans just failed to turn up in disgust, that would eliminate the 2% margin in the original ballot.
I still think the Republicans must be favourite, but I can see why Mike S finds 3/1 attractive.
3/1 is attractive but certainly Warnock has some "issues" that may be a problem.
There are also two other questions:
(1) Will the suburbs come out for the Democrats as they did for the GE? Note Ossoff underperformed Biden by several %;
(2) The latest lawsuits are targeting the March agreement between the SoS and the Democrats re voter registration. Even if it doesn't get thrown out, there is likely to be a tightening of the rules re checking, acceptance of ballots etc. That might have an impact as well.
Two questions on Georgia
i) Is turnout. Which side will be more motivated ii) Do Biden/ voters head out again ?
I'm not sure on i) and voters on ii) won't head out again.
I'd have Purdue at perhaps 65% chance, Loeffler at 55%. The Democrats are well in this though.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Noone has completed phase 3 trials yet, the moderna news is based on an interim peak, the same as Pfizer was. Not sure how many events the moderna (Presumably placebo group) has had.
Neither pfizer or Moderna have even written their academic paper for peer review. Apparently, Oxford approach is only to announce in combination with publication of the academic paper.
Scientifically the Oxford approach is the right way of doing research, but it doesn't win the PR battle.
Does it slow when the vaccine is actually rolled out though ?
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
A strategy of the more efficacious vaccine for the very vulnerable and a less so one for the less vulnerable is perfectly sensible, particularly if the former is in limited supply for whatever the reason.
Which is fine, but I think it's irresponsible to be labelling AZ as less effective until we know what the results are. I'd be surprised if it was anything less than 90%. The fact that we're this far in and haven't had the requisite number of events shows it is probably highly effective.
We don't know. I was just hypothesing if they meet their own target for success of gen 1 of about 60%, that leaves UK government with a tricky decision. Obviously we all hope it is also 90% effective.
That wasn't a target though, it was the baseline minimum for being considered "effective" and is the same for basically all vaccines. The target is to to have a 90%+ effective vaccine rather than just meet the baseline minimum level for vaccines in general.
I don't think there's any mileage in repeating the 60% figure as it relates to vaccines in general rather than the specific effectiveness expected from this one.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
CycleFree_Junior's restaurant business?
No. She has that covered.
Clearing out a house after the builders have been in it for 15 months. They’re still there of course. Husband - who subscribes to the “It’ll come in useful one day” religion (it doesn’t, he doesn’t know what it is and even if he did couldn’t remember where he put it) is away so I have a golden opportunity - and a skip - to do some very necessary clearing out so that the decorators can do their bit. But - aiee! - the amount of dust is phenomenal: clouds and clouds of it. Probably more dangerous for me than bloody Covid.
The only useful tip I can give on here is never to build a house during lockdown. It will be a year late and billions over budget and I only did the damn thing so that I could create a magnificent garden in the land surrounding it, which currently looks as desolate as the Somme after the battle.
Head is full of To Do Lists......
I am all too familiar with that process... All I can say is pick some simpler tasks, get them done and reduce the list. That way it looks shorter.
Get the skip, do your thing and say nothing to him indoors.
If I was in the vaccine task force I'd be buying up as much H1 2021 Moderna vaccine as possible to compliment the Pfizer deliveries we already have. There's nothing to gain by waiting for AZ to report as we can sell the unused capacity of that on to other nations or hold them in reserve in case a booster is needed with a different vector.
Hypothecate unusable vaccine stock out of the foreign aid budget.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Even better. Presumably every available manufacturing facility in the country will be pushed onto Covid vaccines ASAP, as well as probably a few more facilities constructed.?
I have just noticed @kinabalu's epic poem which has inspired me to offer this brief haiku
The garden of Kent Grows winter lorry blossom Brexit's precious gift
The garden of England's a wondrous county, Producing and trading our plentiful bounty. Hops: on a ferry with full laden truck After merely five days to get through queues of Brock, Apples: this ain't where consumer goods go They'll be here just fine going through Felixst..oh! Cobnuts: Its Boris on screen one more time Telling us Brexit is going just fine White wine: they told us asylum'd be sorted Yet these are the only goods being transported.
Also, there will be a lot of nonsense about who ordered exactly what amounts. The reality is anybody will a working vaccine will be licensing the hell out of it to via every production facility possible.
That sucks for poor countries, who can't afford £50 a pop, but most Western countries can.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Noone has completed phase 3 trials yet, the moderna news is based on an interim peak, the same as Pfizer was. Not sure how many events the moderna (Presumably placebo group) has had.
Neither pfizer or Moderna have even written their academic paper for peer review. Apparently, Oxford approach is only to announce in combination with publication of the academic paper.
Scientifically the Oxford approach is the right way of doing research, but it doesn't win the PR battle.
Does it slow when the vaccine is actually rolled out though ?
Yes. You have to present everything to the regulatory authorities in each country and so you need all the academic work properly written up and peer reviewed before they will consider it.
If say Oxford announced next week, complete with academic work (as done previously), they might well still be first to approval and to market.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
And see how they got in "and the EU are in talks"....well they only have 100 million guaranteed of Pfizer to come next year, so they better pull their finger out.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
Yes, it's completely ridiculous. Ultimately the more vaccines that have been approved and are being manufactured is a net positive.
A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
Not one to defend Piers Morgan, but when when politicians withhold access to journalists, it has a chilling effect on free speech.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
Don't worry the Guardian will soon revert to type and complain about the UK over-ordering vaccines (340 million doses from 6 vaccines was the figure in August), and about the waste of money on all the vaccines we have backed that either don't work or won't be needed.
The best bit about the two vaccines announced is that it seems that the approach to defeating COVID isn't that complicated. We now know the basics of do it and how to do it effectively.
I remember posting a video right at the start of this crisis from a talk given by a very famous academic in this space, that said if AIDs is a world class genius, COVID is a high school drop out, due to this reliance on the protein spike mechanism.
I think this is a very good point by Mike and a great tip with SMarkets.
I'm on Ossoff at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.
Speaking of Betfair, they are still not settling up on Biden 300-329 ECVs. I think this is really poor and I have complained. What with this and the kind of shenanigans that Mike highlights I am not impressed with them right now.
Saying the same thing every morning won’t make Betfair settle early. Remember they’re a broker not a bookmaker, it’s not their money they’ll be paying out. It’ll be settled when the results are final.
When they do finally pay out, put everything of Lewis Hamilton for the Sports Personality award, he’s 1.85 on Betfair at the moment, but who else has any significant sporting achievements this year?
All this talk of wokery....can anyone in good conscience be happy making money out of an aggressive tax avoider who earns $54 million a year?
Pretty sure he pays more UK tax than you (and probably any of us) do, Roger.
Living in Monaco?
“A sunny place for shady people” remains the best description of Monaco I have come across
Also applied to the Soggy Dollar bar on Jost van Dyke, as I remember the t-shirt explaining.
I like Raymond Chandler's jaundiced description of Los Angeles as a place where "you wake up in the morning and listen to the birds coughing in the trees"
The best bit about the two vaccines announced is that it seems that the approach to defeating COVID isn't that complicated. We now know the basics of do it and how to do it effectively.
I remember posting a video right at the start of this crisis from a talk given by a very famous academic in this space, that said if AIDs is a world class genius, COVID is a high school drop out, due to this reliance on the protein spike mechanism.
The best bit about the two vaccines announced is that it seems that the approach to defeating COVID isn't that complicated. We now know the basics of do it and how to do it effectively.
I remember posting a video right at the start of this crisis from a talk given by a very famous academic in this space, that said if AIDs is a world class genius, COVID is a high school drop out, due to this reliance on the protein spike mechanism.
We are lucky that Ebola and MERS created both an incentive and baseline to work from.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
Just like Scott's posting earlier - they see it all as a political game and look for angles to attack the government. Beneath contempt.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
Yes, it's completely ridiculous. Ultimately the more vaccines that have been approved and are being manufactured is a net positive.
I see the BBC is doing its bit to reassure people about safety:
And so the bullshit from the likes of Prof Peston starts....and of course Scott and Paste will be flooding the thread with them.
Don't worry, the 13% can't help themselves. We saw it last week when 40m of Pfizer doses with delivery guaranteed for Q1 2021 was a disaster but the EU having 300m doses for unspecified delivery was a huge success and no retraction when it transpired that the only EU had 100m confirmed doses for 2021. They want to see this country fail.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
I very rarely drink alcohol.
Other half OTOH seems to have stored enough to survive a zombie apocalypse .......
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
For starters, Moderna have never brought a vaccine to market. And in initial stages, they were less than open about what was going on. The initial release of info they wouldn't go into details in regards to results and when they start to give some, it was pointed out they weren't being fully transparent.
If the UK had just pumped all their resources behind AZ, then I think there would be legitimate criticism. There are 100s of vaccine candidates, you can't back every single one. Placing orders for 100ms from a range, with different technologies, was perfectly sensible.
A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
Morgan accused Helen Whately of laughing at old people dying from Covid, when she rolled her eyes as he constantly interrupted and talked over her, so they gave his show six months off.
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
For starters, Moderna have never brought a vaccine to market. And in initial stages, they were less than open about what was going on. The initial release of info they wouldn't go into details in regards to results and when they start to give some, it was pointed out they weren't being fully transparent.
Good answers there. I would be very suspicious at that lack of transparency, and given the other options floating around, I'm inclined to support not buying any at that stage.
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
For starters, Moderna have never brought a vaccine to market. And in initial stages, they were less than open about what was going on. The initial release of info they wouldn't go into details in regards to results and when they start to give some, it was pointed out they weren't being fully transparent.
But what Peston was pointing out was that the reason he'd been given wasn't true.
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
There are hundreds of vaccines in development, we can't back them all but we have backed what look like the "safe bets" in the main categories.
The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
Yes, it's completely ridiculous. Ultimately the more vaccines that have been approved and are being manufactured is a net positive.
I see the BBC is doing its bit to reassure people about safety:
The best bit about the two vaccines announced is that it seems that the approach to defeating COVID isn't that complicated. We now know the basics of do it and how to do it effectively.
I remember posting a video right at the start of this crisis from a talk given by a very famous academic in this space, that said if AIDs is a world class genius, COVID is a high school drop out, due to this reliance on the protein spike mechanism.
That was a very persuasive video conference presentation.
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
Especially since the Government are now negotiating to buy doses.
Why is it great they are doing it now, but also great that they didn't do it then..?
A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
But Johnson skipping Neil when Corbyn had done it was a bit off, wasn't it?
Moderna CMO Tal Zaks told the BBC their data so far suggests the vaccine "does not appear to lose its potency" with age.
This is even better news if true, as so often vaccines that work great for the young, don't when given to oldies, and of course with COVID, it is oldies who we really need to protect.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.
Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses? This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
There are hundreds of vaccines in development, we can't back them all but we have backed what look like the "safe bets" in the main categories.
I think Moderna not being partnered with a major pharma company is probably the main reason. Look at all the other candidates we've got on order - Pfizer, AZ, Johnson Johnson, Novovax, GSK/Sanofi and Valneva. Of those only Valneva and Novovax are pure BioTechs and they have agreed to UK manufacturing and trials as part of their deals so there is full transparency for the government.
Imperial is the one where we fucked up IMO, we should have partnered them with a major pharma company and got them into a rapid PIII trial.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.
A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
Not one to defend Piers Morgan, but when when politicians withhold access to journalists, it has a chilling effect on free speech.
There is, or rather there should be, a difference between the Conservative Party boycotting GMB, R4 Today, Newsnight and the rest of the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, and the government doing so. L'état c'est moi should have no place here.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.
How many balls have you lost by then?
Ha. No this is fantasy life. I'm usually 4 under and leading the tournament.
Moderna CMO Tal Zaks told the BBC their data so far suggests the vaccine "does not appear to lose its potency" with age.
This is even better news if true, as so often vaccines that work great for the young, don't when given to oldies, and of course with COVID, it is oldies who we really need to protect.
Does that quote relate to the age of the vaccinated person or the length of time since the person was vaccinated?
Moderna CMO Tal Zaks told the BBC their data so far suggests the vaccine "does not appear to lose its potency" with age.
This is even better news if true, as so often vaccines that work great for the young, don't when given to oldies, and of course with COVID, it is oldies who we really need to protect.
Does that quote relate to the age of the vaccinated person or the length of time since the person was vaccinated?
Sorry here is the full context...
There is also no data on how well it works in older age groups, who are most at risk of dying from Covid. However, Moderna CMO Tal Zaks told the BBC their data so far suggests the vaccine "does not appear to lose its potency" with age.
This is an interesting thought, but do we think many GOP voters will still think in January that Trump might hold on? Surely by then the vast majority will either accept he lost or think he was cheated out of a second term, the latter might even raise their turnout likelihood.
With regret I'm leaning towards just backing the GOP in both seats.
I'm backing the GOP for different reasons.
Once the electoral college meets and confirms Biden as the winner the dynamic will change in Georgia.
The dynamic will be stop the Dems from controlling all three of the White House, House, and Senate, that'll get GOPers in Georgia out and voting.
It will be interesting as the Dems actually have a very good ground game in Georgia now. So I think they will keep up momentum and we might see 2 very very tight races, as being in control of all 3 levels as a reason to vote could energise both sides to turn up.
What proportion of Republican voters might be dissuaded from voting in the Senate elections as a result of their party's lurch away from respecting democratic norms, including very explicitly the two candidates concerned who called for the Republican SoS's resignation?
Judging from polling so far I don't think it will get beyond single figure percentages. However, even if one in 20 Republicans just failed to turn up in disgust, that would eliminate the 2% margin in the original ballot.
I still think the Republicans must be favourite, but I can see why Mike S finds 3/1 attractive.
3/1 is attractive but certainly Warnock has some "issues" that may be a problem.
There are also two other questions:
(1) Will the suburbs come out for the Democrats as they did for the GE? Note Ossoff underperformed Biden by several %;
(2) The latest lawsuits are targeting the March agreement between the SoS and the Democrats re voter registration. Even if it doesn't get thrown out, there is likely to be a tightening of the rules re checking, acceptance of ballots etc. That might have an impact as well.
It's very hard to see anything other than the GOP winning both seats, sadly. I am betting accordingly
F1: still undecided about whether to back Leclerc to be best of the rest. It did amuse me to realise I tipped Perez for that, he's just won 2nd and is now favourite, and I've changed my mind about whether he'll get it or not...
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
Actually, I think the UK has done a pretty good job of ordering a variety of vaccines operating on different principles.
And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
Yes, I think that's right but our mRNA portfolio is lacking and we should have backed both UK horses. Not matching up Imperial with a big partner to run a rapid PIII trial looks to be an error as we'd have a domestic mRNA vaccine in development at this moment.
The big guys know where imperial is.
They will have all thought about it before they placed their bets
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
Actually, I think the UK has done a pretty good job of ordering a variety of vaccines operating on different principles.
And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
Yes, I think that's right but our mRNA portfolio is lacking and we should have backed both UK horses. Not matching up Imperial with a big partner to run a rapid PIII trial looks to be an error as we'd have a domestic mRNA vaccine in development at this moment.
The big guys know where imperial is.
They will have all thought about it before they placed their bets
No doubt but not giving them the same backing as Oxford got with guaranteed purchases seems like an error.
I think this is a very good point by Mike and a great tip with SMarkets.
I'm on Ossoff at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.
Speaking of Betfair, they are still not settling up on Biden 300-329 ECVs. I think this is really poor and I have complained. What with this and the kind of shenanigans that Mike highlights I am not impressed with them right now.
Saying the same thing every morning won’t make Betfair settle early. Remember they’re a broker not a bookmaker, it’s not their money they’ll be paying out. It’ll be settled when the results are final.
When they do finally pay out, put everything of Lewis Hamilton for the Sports Personality award, he’s 1.85 on Betfair at the moment, but who else has any significant sporting achievements this year?
All this talk of wokery....can anyone in good conscience be happy making money out of an aggressive tax avoider who earns $54 million a year?
Pretty sure he pays more UK tax than you (and probably any of us) do, Roger.
Living in Monaco?
“A sunny place for shady people” remains the best description of Monaco I have come across
Also applied to the Soggy Dollar bar on Jost van Dyke, as I remember the t-shirt explaining.
Comments
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-We-Sleep-Science-Dreams/dp/0141983760/ref=sr_1_3
Whether it helps or not, it's a fascinating book
A secondary endpoint analyzed severe cases of COVID-19 and included 11 severe cases (as defined in the study protocol) in this first interim analysis. All 11 cases occurred in the placebo group and none in the mRNA-1273 vaccinated group. </i>
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy
I also have the musical version with me singing and thrashing away on guitar.
If people annoy me enough in the coming days and weeks I'll post that.
Second, the view of Remainers about Leavers, if true, is misconceived. The fascist vote in this country is small. Over the years leaving has been Labour party policy and a view held within mainstream centrist politics. At the referendum Leavers had no choice but to be voting the same as a few extremists. No doubt a few extremes supported Remain too. So what. Overwhelmingly voters are centre, centre left and centre right. There aren't enough extremists to go round.
The Pfizer logistics aren't going to be cheap either.
ALASKA UPDATE ON AV VOTE
The vote to adopting AV has tightened Bigly over the last few days.
Currently Yes-50.48% No-49.52%
There are 10,711 Questioned ballots which would be enough to overturn the result.
So it's great news that two vaccines now appear to be good enough to use, but we are some way away from being able to declare any vaccine the best one.
If the US can do their whole population with Moderna, all that Pfizer capacity becomes available for others.
Clearing out a house after the builders have been in it for 15 months. They’re still there of course. Husband - who subscribes to the “It’ll come in useful one day” religion (it doesn’t, he doesn’t know what it is and even if he did couldn’t remember where he put it) is away so I have a golden opportunity - and a skip - to do some very necessary clearing out so that the decorators can do their bit. But - aiee! - the amount of dust is phenomenal: clouds and clouds of it. Probably more dangerous for me than bloody Covid.
The only useful tip I can give on here is never to build a house during lockdown. It will be a year late and billions over budget and I only did the damn thing so that I could create a magnificent garden in the land surrounding it, which currently looks as desolate as the Somme after the battle.
Head is full of To Do Lists......
i) Is turnout. Which side will be more motivated
ii) Do Biden/ voters head out again ?
I'm not sure on i) and voters on ii) won't head out again.
I'd have Purdue at perhaps 65% chance, Loeffler at 55%. The Democrats are well in this though.
I don't think there's any mileage in repeating the 60% figure as it relates to vaccines in general rather than the specific effectiveness expected from this one.
Get the skip, do your thing and say nothing to him indoors.
Producing and trading our plentiful bounty.
Hops: on a ferry with full laden truck
After merely five days to get through queues of Brock,
Apples: this ain't where consumer goods go
They'll be here just fine going through Felixst..oh!
Cobnuts: Its Boris on screen one more time
Telling us Brexit is going just fine
White wine: they told us asylum'd be sorted
Yet these are the only goods being transported.
That sucks for poor countries, who can't afford £50 a pop, but most Western countries can.
If say Oxford announced next week, complete with academic work (as done previously), they might well still be first to approval and to market.
Summon the lawyers?
I remember posting a video right at the start of this crisis from a talk given by a very famous academic in this space, that said if AIDs is a world class genius, COVID is a high school drop out, due to this reliance on the protein spike mechanism.
Is it safe?
No significant safety concerns have been reported, but nothing, including paracetamol, is 100% safe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902908
Is Kate Bingham writing for them now?
Other half OTOH seems to have stored enough to survive a zombie apocalypse .......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUuLDLY1wMU
This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
If the UK had just pumped all their resources behind AZ, then I think there would be legitimate criticism. There are 100s of vaccine candidates, you can't back every single one. Placing orders for 100ms from a range, with different technologies, was perfectly sensible.
! This claim about the coronavirus vaccine is disputed.
Why is it great they are doing it now, but also great that they didn't do it then..?
Where are we getting that from?
Data from 1st August to the 10th November. Blackline the 7-day moving average
This is even better news if true, as so often vaccines that work great for the young, don't when given to oldies, and of course with COVID, it is oldies who we really need to protect.
macOS Big Sur update is bricking some older MacBook Pros
https://www.engadget.com/macos-big-sur-bricks-old-macbook-pro-215433723.html
Imperial is the one where we fucked up IMO, we should have partnered them with a major pharma company and got them into a rapid PIII trial.
https://buffalochronicle.com/2020/11/14/exclusive-how-a-philly-mob-boss-stole-the-election-and-why-he-may-flip-on-joe-biden/
But what a Netflix series.
"I don't watch TV"
"I don't use cash"
"I don't have a land line"
I suspect a big cluster in the centre of the Venn Diagram.
You go with whatever you have for now (60% better than nowt) but focus on PFE not AZN for future orders
There is also no data on how well it works in older age groups, who are most at risk of dying from Covid. However, Moderna CMO Tal Zaks told the BBC their data so far suggests the vaccine "does not appear to lose its potency" with age.
They will have all thought about it before they placed their bets