The Johnson conundrum: 1. Politically, he cannot do a trade deal with the EU. 2. Economically, he cannot not do a trade deal with the EU. Because Johnson is not in politics for the good of the British people or business, 1 will trump 2 every single time.
Do not think so. For me the politics steers to a deal. I think he can handle flak from the headbangers much easier than that from a WTO crash out.
The way I see it, the ERG owns a WTO deal as much as Johnson does, so politically they will be much less trouble for him if we go to No Deal - in fact, they will love him. And the ERG basically owns the Conservative party these days. Johnson is not thinking about a wider constituency than that.
Also, there's a parallel with the Trump issue in the header.
Logically, there must be quite a lot of senior Republican figures who can count, know that the game is up for Trump 2020, and have long-term ambitions of their own. Those ambitions won't be helped by being tied to the clowncar crash of Trump continuing to deny his defeat. But it's in nobody's interest to be the first to put their head above the parapet. So they wait for someone else to have their head blown off first. So the car crash continues, because nobody stops it.
Logically, there must be quite a lot of senior Conservative figures who can recognise that the UK really isn't ready to leave transition in six weeks time and have long-term ambitions of their own. Those ambitions won't be helped by being tied to the clowncar crash which is likely to follow from changes in trade rules for which neither business or government are remotely prepared...
The transport bit of this Webinar was the funniest bit. Despite the car parks that are causing so much upset in places like Ashford the plan is still to shut the M20 for truck parking. And need to expedite the removal of trucks from the Brock queues to allow them to actually transition through the port before the livestock on board dies.
That's according to the DfT. I know that Philip insists that none of this is going to happen, but the people who are implementing it insist it is...
What makes you think I believe expediting won't happen? Seems like a good idea to me.
So the fact is they have a plan is what you're saying. Goes by what I was saying, that there'll be disruption but we'd middle through it and it'll be ok in the end.
I see BJ is giving the 'fit as a butcher's dog' shite another run out. It's a mystery why people think the hackneyed cliché monger is some sort of talented wordsmith.
Indeed. A talented wordsmith might be expected to educate themselves as to what words mean. 'Bursting with antibodies' suggests only a profound ignorance.
DiT Webinar: "You will need at least 9 additional procedures" in supply chain processes from 1/1/21. Oh goody! Glad that we are cutting costs and red tape.
9 at the moment - I'm sure they haven't identified them all yet and more will be discovered...
They have an example on screen - Export Dover to Calais. There are 18 Steps numbered 1,2,3,4,5,6a,6b,6c,7,8a,8b,8c,8d,9a,9b,9c,9d,10.
SPOTY - If we are talking personality it's surely Rashford but if sport it absolutely 100% has to be Hamilton surely?
Sporting wise has Rashford achieved anything at all this year?
If it does at it is going to a footballer then sports wise Henderson deserves it much more than Rashford.
Not if it's sports personality.
Hamilton has none. Or, rather, the little he does have is odious.
And driving an engine round and round a track isn't sport.
Just because he offends your white supremacy doesn't make him odious.
He clearly has a lot of personality which is why he rubs you up the wrong way.
Hamilton's a great driver and he probably deserves SPOTY on his achievements alone (SPOTY itself can't seem to make up its own mind whether its about personality or achievement), but I'd argue with the 'lots of personality' thing. The 'interesting' fashion choices and lurching into various public pronouncements seems like a nerd in search of a personalty. Nothing wrong with being a nerd of course, I have tendencies myself.
The transport bit of this Webinar was the funniest bit. Despite the car parks that are causing so much upset in places like Ashford the plan is still to shut the M20 for truck parking. And need to expedite the removal of trucks from the Brock queues to allow them to actually transition through the port before the livestock on board dies.
That's according to the DfT. I know that Philip insists that none of this is going to happen, but the people who are implementing it insist it is...
What makes you think I believe expediting won't happen? Seems like a good idea to me.
So the fact is they have a plan is what you're saying. Goes by what I was saying, that there'll be disruption but we'd middle through it and it'll be ok in the end.
You said that there wouldn't be the absolute shutdown of export. If they need both Ashford /Marston etc AND Brock then that's a sufficient number of trucks parked as to stop goods flowing. Unless you think we have an infinite number of trucks and drivers to draw upon.
Completely off topic, does anyone know why BT cannot stop call number spoofing?
Just getting another plague of scam/phishing calls on our landline. Bloody irritating!
We get the Amazon Prime scam call on a regular basis.
So do we, and a damn nuisance they are. What's even more infuriating is that there isn't a human at the other end, to whom you can be creatively rude.
It is the best thing with those 'We understand you were in a car accident in the last five years'
I like stringing them along for a few minutes, tell them about an accident for about 5 minutes then at the end say 'Oh I was really drunk at the time, and high on cocaine at the time, will I still be able to get compensation?'
The 'Microsoft Technical Department' calls of a few years ago were good for that. Ten minutes of 'doing' whatever they wanted, and then say something like 'Apple doesn't work like that.'
"Hello, you're through to the Joint Cybersecurity Unit. Please stay on the line for tracing."
I noticed earlier the discussion of what is a game and what is a sport. This falls in the same category of a discussion on religion or politics; we are never going to agree.
Intrinsically we all really know and are arguing at the fringes, but more importantly we argue on how you define it.
I liked the definition of a sport is defined as one in which you can die. I have never heard that one before and generally it fits, but, but, but you still get into the fringes eg being hit in the head by a snooker ball or croquet ball while trying a hard hit, whereas you are not going to die when hit by a table tennis ball (although you might have a heart attack, but then you might while throwing a dart [particularly if you are 22 stone and on your eighth pint]).
So now you have to define what constitutes death by sport.
Just to make it more complicated, horse riding which is a hobby when not racing has a high death toll. How about mountaineering? Again doesn't feel like a sport. Gliding? These fit the deadly criteria. However to be a sport I think you need to be competing.
Yep, been there, done that, when I had a girlfriend with a glider. But it is comparable to horse riding - 90+ percent is not competitive (other than against yourself).
Fair point, but isn't the same true of running.
PS As and aside I think I noted a few years back that there do seem to be a disproportionate number of glider pilots or (as in my case) ex-glider pilots on PB for some reason.
A knowledge of navigating gusts of hot air perhaps has something to do with it ?
SPOTY - If we are talking personality it's surely Rashford but if sport it absolutely 100% has to be Hamilton surely?
Sporting wise has Rashford achieved anything at all this year?
If it does at it is going to a footballer then sports wise Henderson deserves it much more than Rashford.
I am not sure SPOTY has anything to do with persoanlity....see Giggs and 3 time winner Andy Murray.
Yes, it should be called 'British Sporting Champion of the Year' or something. Hamilton and Murray have both won after very impressive achievements but you'd hardly call them great sporting personalities.
My favourite bit of SPOTY trivia is that the first year was 1954, the year Roger Bannister ran the four-minute mile, but Bannister came 2nd to one of his pacemakers (who had won a Commonwealth Games gold that year).
With any luck, now Dom and co. have been eliminated, Boris is now the mere puppet of a powerful cabal of Remainers, who have ordered Frosty to do their sole bidding. Let's hope so, eh?
I think this is a very good point by Mike and a great tip with SMarkets.
I'm on Ossoff at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.
Speaking of Betfair, they are still not settling up on Biden 300-329 ECVs. I think this is really poor and I have complained. What with this and the kind of shenanigans that Mike highlights I am not impressed with them right now.
Saying the same thing every morning won’t make Betfair settle early. Remember they’re a broker not a bookmaker, it’s not their money they’ll be paying out. It’ll be settled when the results are final.
When they do finally pay out, put everything of Lewis Hamilton for the Sports Personality award, he’s 1.85 on Betfair at the moment, but who else has any significant sporting achievements this year?
All this talk of wokery....can anyone in good conscience be happy making money out of an aggressive tax avoider who earns $54 million a year?
Pretty sure he pays more UK tax than you (and probably any of us) do, Roger.
With any luck, now Dom and co. have been eliminated, Boris is now the mere puppet of a powerful cabal of Remainers, who have ordered Frosty to do their sole bidding. Let's hope so, eh?
There are no Remainers. There are just rejoiners, do-a-deal-ers, and the clinically insane.
Completely off topic, does anyone know why BT cannot stop call number spoofing?
Just getting another plague of scam/phishing calls on our landline. Bloody irritating!
We get the Amazon Prime scam call on a regular basis.
So do we, and a damn nuisance they are. What's even more infuriating is that there isn't a human at the other end, to whom you can be creatively rude.
It is the best thing with those 'We understand you were in a car accident in the last five years'
I like stringing them along for a few minutes, tell them about an accident for about 5 minutes then at the end say 'Oh I was really drunk at the time, and high on cocaine at the time, will I still be able to get compensation?'
The 'Microsoft Technical Department' calls of a few years ago were good for that. Ten minutes of 'doing' whatever they wanted, and then say something like 'Apple doesn't work like that.'
"Hello, you're through to the Joint Cybersecurity Unit. Please stay on the line for tracing."
With any luck, now Dom and co. have been eliminated, Boris is now the mere puppet of a powerful cabal of Remainers, who have ordered Frosty to do their sole bidding. Let's hope so, eh?
I'm sure Nigel Farage is uttering those very words to Ricahrd Tice as we speak...
The transport bit of this Webinar was the funniest bit. Despite the car parks that are causing so much upset in places like Ashford the plan is still to shut the M20 for truck parking. And need to expedite the removal of trucks from the Brock queues to allow them to actually transition through the port before the livestock on board dies.
That's according to the DfT. I know that Philip insists that none of this is going to happen, but the people who are implementing it insist it is...
What makes you think I believe expediting won't happen? Seems like a good idea to me.
So the fact is they have a plan is what you're saying. Goes by what I was saying, that there'll be disruption but we'd middle through it and it'll be ok in the end.
You said that there wouldn't be the absolute shutdown of export. If they need both Ashford /Marston etc AND Brock then that's a sufficient number of trucks parked as to stop goods flowing. Unless you think we have an infinite number of trucks and drivers to draw upon.
No it's not a stop it's a delay and delays happen. It's disruption exactly as I've been saying all along, it is not a shutdown.
If goods are getting expedited for export based on need then that is not a shutdown either.
I remember when Button was 2nd behind Ryan Giggs, for no apparent reason.
Yes, I love the shock podium places which reveal a well-organised campaign by fans under the radar.
You know what else is bullshit about it: Serena Williams has never won Overseas Personality of the Year. She's perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, she's certainly the greatest female player of her generation by a country mile. Federer (a similar great on the men's tour) has won it 4 times!
You know what else is bullshit about it: Serena Williams has never won Overseas Personality of the Year. She's perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, she's certainly the greatest female player of her generation by a country mile. Federer (a similar great on the men's tour) has won it 4 times!
F1: the best of the rest markets are back on Ladbrokes.
I had a £1* I stuck on McLaren at 3.75. I reckon Racing Point are likeliest for this, so this was more balancing matters. As Racing Point are 1.5 you could back both to finish very slightly green but if you haven't bet on the market I'd advise not betting (or sticking a little on McLaren if you have a free bet).
The drivers are even closer, with 4 points covering Perez, Leclerc, and Ricciardo. The Mexican is 3 ahead of the Monegasque and 4 ahead of the Aussie.
I've revised my earlier opinion and think Leclerc might be value at 3.1 (3.2 with boost). Not sure. I backed Perez at 3.6 a couple of weeks ago. May back Leclerc. The agony of choice.
I see BJ is giving the 'fit as a butcher's dog' shite another run out. It's a mystery why people think the hackneyed cliché monger is some sort of talented wordsmith.
Indeed. A talented wordsmith might be expected to educate themselves as to what words mean. 'Bursting with antibodies' suggests only a profound ignorance.
I suspect he believes his own myth that he is a great wordmonger, whereas he's a just a second rate word-mangler.
He just seems like a normal bloke, not something you associate with politicans, especially of the Tory creed.
Perfect antidote to criticisms of Boris and much better match up against Starmer. Sunak as PM, Javid as chancellor, that would be a decent top two, and can very much sell the Tory ethos of work hard, be a good citizen, integrate and you can succeed in the UK. Might annoy the racists though.
I remember when Button was 2nd behind Ryan Giggs, for no apparent reason.
Yes, I love the shock podium places which reveal a well-organised campaign by fans under the radar.
You know what else is bullshit about it: Serena Williams has never won Overseas Personality of the Year. She's perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, she's certainly the greatest female player of her generation by a country mile. Federer (a similar great on the men's tour) has won it 4 times!
I have little sympathy for women's tennis complaining about not being respected as much as men's tennis when they can't even be bothered to play five sets.
It'd be like women's golf championship being decided on nine hole courses. Part timers, play a proper grand slam!
While I utterly detest Farage and wouldn't ever vote for him, I can understand why people like him, which isn't the case with Johnson who is so obviously a fake.
Used to really rate him but his foray into the bowels of Trump has soiled him irrevocably in my eyes. There's no coming back from that.
You probably need to work on the difference between:
1. An effective politician; and 2. A politician you don't agree with.
Nige is both of course and the latter doesn't alter the former.
A politician who is loathed by 3/4 of the population even if loved by the other 1/4 can never be really successful. Even Trump managed to fire up enough opponents to see him off. People like Farage need a fascist revival before they 'll become more than a joke.
Betfair should pay out on Nevada today, it is their certification deadline. That means the results will be the official, on the record count for the state. Not provisional, not projected but FINAL unallayed 100% historical recorded fact.
While I utterly detest Farage and wouldn't ever vote for him, I can understand why people like him, which isn't the case with Johnson who is so obviously a fake.
Used to really rate him but his foray into the bowels of Trump has soiled him irrevocably in my eyes. There's no coming back from that.
You probably need to work on the difference between:
1. An effective politician; and 2. A politician you don't agree with.
Nige is both of course and the latter doesn't alter the former.
A politician who is loathed by 3/4 of the population even if loved by the other 1/4 can never be really successful. Even Trump managed to fire up enough opponents to see him off. People like Farage need a fascist revival before they 'll become more than a joke.
There has been a fascist revival. Just because they don't wear silly uniforms (well not in public anyway) and talk about liquidating swathes of people they don't like doesn't mean that they are not very real and very dangerous. Brexit is the manifestation of 21st century fascism; divisive and irrational, it has fed off all the same fears and loathing that fascism has always sought to exploit. Johnson is clearly not a fascist, a populist egotist perhaps, but he has been a very useful idiot for the likes of Farage and Putin, both of whom most definitely are.
There is the alternative view that that it was lining up behind Farage that made Leaving look like a racist/fascist enterprise. It's certainly one of the main reasons why 'Leavers' -to this day- are held in so little regard by 'Remainers'.
I remember when Button was 2nd behind Ryan Giggs, for no apparent reason.
Yes, I love the shock podium places which reveal a well-organised campaign by fans under the radar.
You know what else is bullshit about it: Serena Williams has never won Overseas Personality of the Year. She's perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, she's certainly the greatest female player of her generation by a country mile. Federer (a similar great on the men's tour) has won it 4 times!
I have little sympathy for women's tennis complaining about not being respected as much as men's tennis when they can't even be bothered to play five sets.
It'd be like women's golf championship being decided on nine hole courses. Part timers, play a proper grand slam!
I agree they should play 5 sets, but Serena Williams can't single-handedly change that and her achievements within the rules as they are are extremely impressive.
He just seems like a normal bloke, not something you associate with politicans, especially of the Tory creed.
Quite right. A standard issue normal Wykehamist married to daughter of a billionaire, an everyday sight on the streets of Accrington and Oswaldtwistle.
I see BJ is giving the 'fit as a butcher's dog' shite another run out. It's a mystery why people think the hackneyed cliché monger is some sort of talented wordsmith.
Indeed. A talented wordsmith might be expected to educate themselves as to what words mean. 'Bursting with antibodies' suggests only a profound ignorance.
I've always thought that butchers' dogs were more likely to be overweight and lazy than slim and athletic.
I see BJ is giving the 'fit as a butcher's dog' shite another run out. It's a mystery why people think the hackneyed cliché monger is some sort of talented wordsmith.
Indeed. A talented wordsmith might be expected to educate themselves as to what words mean. 'Bursting with antibodies' suggests only a profound ignorance.
I suspect he believes his own myth that he is a great wordmonger, whereas he's a just a second rate word-mangler.
He is a complete a*se, but he is an Etonian a*se and therefore fit to Lord it over us plebs. Apparently ....
This is an interesting thought, but do we think many GOP voters will still think in January that Trump might hold on? Surely by then the vast majority will either accept he lost or think he was cheated out of a second term, the latter might even raise their turnout likelihood.
With regret I'm leaning towards just backing the GOP in both seats.
I'm backing the GOP for different reasons.
Once the electoral college meets and confirms Biden as the winner the dynamic will change in Georgia.
The dynamic will be stop the Dems from controlling all three of the White House, House, and Senate, that'll get GOPers in Georgia out and voting.
It will be interesting as the Dems actually have a very good ground game in Georgia now. So I think they will keep up momentum and we might see 2 very very tight races, as being in control of all 3 levels as a reason to vote could energise both sides to turn up.
What proportion of Republican voters might be dissuaded from voting in the Senate elections as a result of their party's lurch away from respecting democratic norms, including very explicitly the two candidates concerned who called for the Republican SoS's resignation?
Judging from polling so far I don't think it will get beyond single figure percentages. However, even if one in 20 Republicans just failed to turn up in disgust, that would eliminate the 2% margin in the original ballot.
I still think the Republicans must be favourite, but I can see why Mike S finds 3/1 attractive.
He just seems like a normal bloke, not something you associate with politicans, especially of the Tory creed.
Perfect antidote to criticisms of Boris and much better match up against Starmer. Sunak as PM, Javid as chancellor, that would be a decent top two, and can very much sell the Tory ethos of work hard, be a good citizen, integrate and you can succeed in the UK..
If only that were the ethos. That hasn’t been the case for many a year.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
IIRC they need more than 50% - but clearly it would be sub-optimal. And we're still going on pretty small samples so its perfectly possible to get a statistical glitch...
The transport bit of this Webinar was the funniest bit. Despite the car parks that are causing so much upset in places like Ashford the plan is still to shut the M20 for truck parking. And need to expedite the removal of trucks from the Brock queues to allow them to actually transition through the port before the livestock on board dies.
That's according to the DfT. I know that Philip insists that none of this is going to happen, but the people who are implementing it insist it is...
What makes you think I believe expediting won't happen? Seems like a good idea to me.
So the fact is they have a plan is what you're saying. Goes by what I was saying, that there'll be disruption but we'd middle through it and it'll be ok in the end.
You said that there wouldn't be the absolute shutdown of export. If they need both Ashford /Marston etc AND Brock then that's a sufficient number of trucks parked as to stop goods flowing. Unless you think we have an infinite number of trucks and drivers to draw upon.
No it's not a stop it's a delay and delays happen. It's disruption exactly as I've been saying all along, it is not a shutdown.
If goods are getting expedited for export based on need then that is not a shutdown either.
You're talking generalities and platitudes as always. If we stop that many trucks for that length of time, we run out of trucks. The numbers were posted on here yesterday which you dismissed out of hand. Its just adding.
Lets try and do what you want and look past the chaos that the industry and the government are ready for. Eighteen steps to export. Vs a handful now. Even if we find a way to carry out so many of these steps away from the border, what is the cost loading of doing all of these eighteen steps and in what way do you expect this will be more than off-set by reduced costs elsewhere?
The fishing industry - votes to leave the EU not our senses. Freedom away from the CFP but unable to efficiently and viably export means they shut down. Thats according to all the industry leaders who signed that letter. You of course know more about it than they do and think they're wrong.
At which point do you stop howling at the moon Philip? Entertaining as it is it's also quite disturbing. Like watching Baldrick deny everything. Funny. But Blackadder is going to cop it as a result.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Supposedly two more weeks. I.am sure it didn't help they gave the wrong dosage early on.
One factor - apart from the long suspension in the US - is that the AstraZeneca trial gave the placebo to only a third of the participants, rather than half in the Pfizer and Moderna trials. So if the vaccine is similarly effective, the rate of infection in the placebo arm will be lower and it will take longer to get the specified number of cases.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Buy up as much of the Pfizer and Moderna 2021 capacity as possible and get a partner for Imperial ASAP as they are using the mRNA method.
I can't believe with all the money being thrown around at anything Covid related, Imperial have only had £7 million in government funding.
Yes, that's definitely been a failure of the taskforce, they should have been backing both horses in the UK and gotten a partner for Imperial as well. We have plenty of UK pharma companies that would do so.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Supposedly two more weeks. I.am sure it didn't help they gave the wrong dosage early on.
One factor - apart from the long suspension in the US - is that the AstraZeneca trial gave the placebo to only a third of the participants, rather than half in the Pfizer and Moderna trials. So if the vaccine is similarly effective, the rate of infection in the placebo arm will be lower and it will take longer to get the specified number of cases.
It does seem like an error to go for a 1/3rd control group without having a much larger trial.
Ironically the US' mishandling of COVID has helped them get results earlier:
In vaccine trials, a certain number of volunteers -- a percentage of whom get a placebo -- have to get infected in order to determine if the vaccine works. That’s easier to accomplish with the pandemic in the U.S. surging. The U.S. has recorded more than 100,000 new infections every day since Nov. 5, according to Johns Hopkins University data compiled by Bloomberg.
The same explosion of Covid-19 cases that helped Pfizer get results for its vaccine trial on Nov. 9 helped speed along Moderna’s trial. Moderna on Nov. 11 said its study had accumulated more than 53 infections, allowing a preliminary analysis to begin.
Infections were accumulating so fast in the trial that Moderna’s analysis ended up being based on 95 cases, the company said.
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
The more working vaccines out there, the wider the supply, the faster everybody gets through this.
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
Based on what? We don't know how effective the Oxford vaccine is, the mechanism is using the same spike protein as Pfizer so it should be similar, the issue is with the way AZ have run the PIII trial with a smaller control group and not chasing the virus in the correct parts of the world.
Betfair should pay out on Nevada today, it is their certification deadline. That means the results will be the official, on the record count for the state. Not provisional, not projected but FINAL unallayed 100% historical recorded fact.
Just checking. How did it go for people who predicted Biden to win by 2% based solely on voter registration figures?
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
Actually, I think the UK has done a pretty good job of ordering a variety of vaccines operating on different principles.
And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
Hopefully. Only reason i mention that figure is because that is roughly what Oxford initially said would be what they hoped would be for it to be deemed a success. The goal posts have now moved significantly.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
It's a different way of using the spike protein. Similar to the method used by the Russian vaccine.
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
Actually, I think the UK has done a pretty good job of ordering a variety of vaccines operating on different principles.
And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
Yes, I think that's right but our mRNA portfolio is lacking and we should have backed both UK horses. Not matching up Imperial with a big partner to run a rapid PIII trial looks to be an error as we'd have a domestic mRNA vaccine in development at this moment.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Noone has completed phase 3 trials yet, the moderna news is based on an interim peak, the same as Pfizer was. Not sure how many events the moderna (Presumably placebo group) has had.
Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?
What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
Actually, I think the UK has done a pretty good job of ordering a variety of vaccines operating on different principles.
And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
UK has ordered a bigger variety of vaccine types than most other countries. If most of them prove effective, there’s enough for everyone purely from the initial orders.
Say it quietly, but the UK is also doing more testing per capita than almost anywhere else too.
Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.
Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
A strategy of the more efficacious vaccine for the very vulnerable and a less so one for the less vulnerable is perfectly sensible, particularly if the former is in limited supply for whatever the reason.
What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
I don't think it's responsible to be talking about 60% effectiveness rates for AZ, we don't know what it will be and the spike protein method is the same as the mRNA vaccines so it should be fairly similar to the 90%+ of Pfizer and Moderna.
It's a different way of using the spike protein. Similar to the method used by the Russian vaccine.
The vector is different, but the use of the spike protein is the same.
“ Moderna expects to have about 20 million doses of the vaccine — known as mRNA-1273 — ready for the US by the end of the year. “The Company remains on track to manufacture 500 million to 1 billion doses globally in 2021,” it added in a statement.
The results are a boost for President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed programme, which gave Moderna $1 billion to develop the vaccine and has agreed to buy an initial 100 million doses with an option for 400 million more in a deal worth up to $1.5 billion.”
This is an interesting thought, but do we think many GOP voters will still think in January that Trump might hold on? Surely by then the vast majority will either accept he lost or think he was cheated out of a second term, the latter might even raise their turnout likelihood.
With regret I'm leaning towards just backing the GOP in both seats.
I'm backing the GOP for different reasons.
Once the electoral college meets and confirms Biden as the winner the dynamic will change in Georgia.
The dynamic will be stop the Dems from controlling all three of the White House, House, and Senate, that'll get GOPers in Georgia out and voting.
It will be interesting as the Dems actually have a very good ground game in Georgia now. So I think they will keep up momentum and we might see 2 very very tight races, as being in control of all 3 levels as a reason to vote could energise both sides to turn up.
What proportion of Republican voters might be dissuaded from voting in the Senate elections as a result of their party's lurch away from respecting democratic norms, including very explicitly the two candidates concerned who called for the Republican SoS's resignation?
Judging from polling so far I don't think it will get beyond single figure percentages. However, even if one in 20 Republicans just failed to turn up in disgust, that would eliminate the 2% margin in the original ballot.
I still think the Republicans must be favourite, but I can see why Mike S finds 3/1 attractive.
3/1 is attractive but certainly Warnock has some "issues" that may be a problem.
There are also two other questions:
(1) Will the suburbs come out for the Democrats as they did for the GE? Note Ossoff underperformed Biden by several %;
(2) The latest lawsuits are targeting the March agreement between the SoS and the Democrats re voter registration. Even if it doesn't get thrown out, there is likely to be a tightening of the rules re checking, acceptance of ballots etc. That might have an impact as well.
Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.
Noone has completed phase 3 trials yet, the moderna news is based on an interim peak, the same as Pfizer was. Not sure how many events the moderna (Presumably placebo group) has had.
Neither pfizer or Moderna have even written their academic paper for peer review. Apparently, Oxford approach is only to announce in combination with publication of the academic paper.
Scientifically the Oxford approach is the right way of doing research, but it doesn't win the PR battle.
I think this is a very good point by Mike and a great tip with SMarkets.
I'm on Ossoff at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.
Speaking of Betfair, they are still not settling up on Biden 300-329 ECVs. I think this is really poor and I have complained. What with this and the kind of shenanigans that Mike highlights I am not impressed with them right now.
Saying the same thing every morning won’t make Betfair settle early. Remember they’re a broker not a bookmaker, it’s not their money they’ll be paying out. It’ll be settled when the results are final.
When they do finally pay out, put everything of Lewis Hamilton for the Sports Personality award, he’s 1.85 on Betfair at the moment, but who else has any significant sporting achievements this year?
All this talk of wokery....can anyone in good conscience be happy making money out of an aggressive tax avoider who earns $54 million a year?
Pretty sure he pays more UK tax than you (and probably any of us) do, Roger.
Living in Monaco?
“A sunny place for shady people” remains the best description of Monaco I have come across
I see BJ is giving the 'fit as a butcher's dog' shite another run out. It's a mystery why people think the hackneyed cliché monger is some sort of talented wordsmith.
Indeed. A talented wordsmith might be expected to educate themselves as to what words mean. 'Bursting with antibodies' suggests only a profound ignorance.
I've always thought that butchers' dogs were more likely to be overweight and lazy than slim and athletic.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8952529/Macron-criticizes-media-coverage-Islamic-extremism.html
So the fact is they have a plan is what you're saying. Goes by what I was saying, that there'll be disruption but we'd middle through it and it'll be ok in the end.
A talented wordsmith might be expected to educate themselves as to what words mean. 'Bursting with antibodies' suggests only a profound ignorance.
Then they hang up.
My favourite bit of SPOTY trivia is that the first year was 1954, the year Roger Bannister ran the four-minute mile, but Bannister came 2nd to one of his pacemakers (who had won a Commonwealth Games gold that year).
I remember when Button was 2nd behind Ryan Giggs, for no apparent reason.
I sometimes use 'Sergei; have you got the money?'
They hang up then, too.
If goods are getting expedited for export based on need then that is not a shutdown either.
https://twitter.com/dominiquetaegon/status/1328300223194664960?s=20
Of course Kinabalu isn`t above winding you up, PT.
You know what else is bullshit about it: Serena Williams has never won Overseas Personality of the Year. She's perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, she's certainly the greatest female player of her generation by a country mile. Federer (a similar great on the men's tour) has won it 4 times!
https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1328301189247721472
https://twitter.com/ToddKolod/status/1328232292897185793?s=20
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1327948260720467970
I had a £1* I stuck on McLaren at 3.75. I reckon Racing Point are likeliest for this, so this was more balancing matters. As Racing Point are 1.5 you could back both to finish very slightly green but if you haven't bet on the market I'd advise not betting (or sticking a little on McLaren if you have a free bet).
The drivers are even closer, with 4 points covering Perez, Leclerc, and Ricciardo. The Mexican is 3 ahead of the Monegasque and 4 ahead of the Aussie.
I've revised my earlier opinion and think Leclerc might be value at 3.1 (3.2 with boost). Not sure. I backed Perez at 3.6 a couple of weeks ago. May back Leclerc. The agony of choice.
Edited extra bit: *free bet.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1328304124190978049?s=20
He certainly comes across a lot better than Boris.
https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1328304798081441794?s=20
It'd be like women's golf championship being decided on nine hole courses. Part timers, play a proper grand slam!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show
Trump is going to melt down.
Perhaps it's not such a bad comparison.
Judging from polling so far I don't think it will get beyond single figure percentages. However, even if one in 20 Republicans just failed to turn up in disgust, that would eliminate the 2% margin in the original ballot.
I still think the Republicans must be favourite, but I can see why Mike S finds 3/1 attractive.
Be very tricky decision for the government.
Lets try and do what you want and look past the chaos that the industry and the government are ready for. Eighteen steps to export. Vs a handful now. Even if we find a way to carry out so many of these steps away from the border, what is the cost loading of doing all of these eighteen steps and in what way do you expect this will be more than off-set by reduced costs elsewhere?
The fishing industry - votes to leave the EU not our senses. Freedom away from the CFP but unable to efficiently and viably export means they shut down. Thats according to all the industry leaders who signed that letter. You of course know more about it than they do and think they're wrong.
At which point do you stop howling at the moon Philip? Entertaining as it is it's also quite disturbing. Like watching Baldrick deny everything. Funny. But Blackadder is going to cop it as a result.
In vaccine trials, a certain number of volunteers -- a percentage of whom get a placebo -- have to get infected in order to determine if the vaccine works. That’s easier to accomplish with the pandemic in the U.S. surging. The U.S. has recorded more than 100,000 new infections every day since Nov. 5, according to Johns Hopkins University data compiled by Bloomberg.
The same explosion of Covid-19 cases that helped Pfizer get results for its vaccine trial on Nov. 9 helped speed along Moderna’s trial. Moderna on Nov. 11 said its study had accumulated more than 53 infections, allowing a preliminary analysis to begin.
Infections were accumulating so fast in the trial that Moderna’s analysis ended up being based on 95 cases, the company said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-16/moderna-vaccine-is-found-highly-effective-at-preventing-covid-19
https://twitter.com/hughlaurie/status/1240576597368942593
The more working vaccines out there, the wider the supply, the faster everybody gets through this.
The garden of Kent
Grows winter lorry blossom
Brexit's precious gift
Tweet hunt underway!!!
And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Say it quietly, but the UK is also doing more testing per capita than almost anywhere else too.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-supply-agreement-us-government-initial-100
“ Moderna expects to have about 20 million doses of the vaccine — known as mRNA-1273 — ready for the US by the end of the year. “The Company remains on track to manufacture 500 million to 1 billion doses globally in 2021,” it added in a statement.
The results are a boost for President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed programme, which gave Moderna $1 billion to develop the vaccine and has agreed to buy an initial 100 million doses with an option for 400 million more in a deal worth up to $1.5 billion.”
There are also two other questions:
(1) Will the suburbs come out for the Democrats as they did for the GE? Note Ossoff underperformed Biden by several %;
(2) The latest lawsuits are targeting the March agreement between the SoS and the Democrats re voter registration. Even if it doesn't get thrown out, there is likely to be a tightening of the rules re checking, acceptance of ballots etc. That might have an impact as well.
Scientifically the Oxford approach is the right way of doing research, but it doesn't win the PR battle.