If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
The dose of reality needed on a rainy Sunday.
No just Project Fear bullshit that sets the bar so low it will be cleared with ease.
It is hyperbolic nonsense that isn't going to happen.
Absurd - look at the effect even Brexit stockpiling is already contributing at Felixstowe, or what's already predicted by several Kent residents for the lorry toilet on road networks on the other side. So much of this unknowable, and so considering the stakes a cavalier attitude to this kind of logistical risk is absolute madness.
I've said I expect there to be some disruption but for the systems to cope overall (which incidentally is what I've seen the actual experts rather than keyboard warriors say themselves)
How does "it is unknowable" if that is your argument cut against what I've said? And surely it even more so cuts against Cicero's doommongering certainty of catastrophic systemic failure?
Unknowable levels of probability and possibly random consequences with extremely high economic and social stakes ; somewhat like climate change, although less measurable yet.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
Supposing this has happened - I have no idea. But the defence could be this. Boris is WFH. Others who come to the flat do so because they are working. This is legal in principle. Carrie interacts at a social distance because she is part of the same household as Boris.
Or maybe it's all informal baby care.
She is allegedly meeting people when he's not there.
If it's work not socialising then what's the issue?
And all the descriptions so far are work related issues.
Because, as i said earlier, she does not work for the Government. Officially or (as if it matters) unofficially. So she can't claim to be meeting Government officials for work purposes.
Just because she may have opinions over what happens in the Government, that doesn't give her the right to meet people to discuss them. That's not "work".
But you are wrong.
If she's doing what is said then she does work for the government. Officially or unofficially.
Everything discussed so far is work related. So unobjectionable, except you seem to think she isn't working. Is your objection that she is voluntarily working? I don't think that volunteering is illegal.
Sorry, but from their website:http://www.nutnuts-softplay.co.uk they are an "Award Winning, family run company NutNuts Soft Play Hire, based in Havering, Essex" I expect they're delighted at the free publicity.
Well, if the unlamented Cummings did indeed coin the nickname "Princess Nut-Nuts", he is even more wicked than I imagined. How would you feel if you were Johnson´s latest fling, and you were given the nickname in full: "Princess Nut-Nuts Soft Play Hire"?
I suppose Cummings thought he was unsackable, just like Stafford thought he was unbeheadable.
I really couldn’t care less about who has been sending mean emails to whom. Mr Meeks is right: the problem is the leader and his craven MPs.
But this line stood out - “ Public appointments and contracts appear to be doled out based on personal contacts rather than rigorous procurement and the speed thus obtained has not noticeably improved the results.”
It is what I’ve been saying on here - despite the ridicule from some. Today we learn of more instances of people using public office for private gain - their own or those of their clients. On and on it goes. It is disgusting. Those who are on the inside benefit. Those on the outside are left to suffer. The lot of them should be booted out if they continue to have no regard for any basic norms of honesty or integrity.
He expects businesses exporting and importing to be prepared for a post January 1 trading environment that the Government freely admits it won't be prepared for itself. With key personnel and customs systems not built until half way through next year at the earliest.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
Unfortunately your happiness is not the relevant metric.
Oh I don't know. To Aristotle happiness or eudaimomia is the top goal of every person. 'Relevant metric' might be lost on him however. Just wishing happiness on a few million who live on the island of Ireland as well. Happy to help.
You need to be careful about assuming you can put yourself in the shoes of the Irish, and indeed which 'Irish'.
Fifty years ago when I was a young men and had many more Irish friends than I do now, my impression was that despite all the nationalist talk, the Irish in the Republic were smart enough to realise that the six countries were the kind of gift you didn't necessarily want. 'You couldn't make a present of them to anybody' was one of the pithier comments I recall.
Times have changed though. I'm not sure so many would be opposed to unification now, North or South of the current border.
Given infection and new case rates across the whole of the US, Thanksgiving, and the associated travelling, is going to be such a high risk event this year.
No-one want to admit it but pre-vaccine the same applies to Christmas/NY in most of Europe. The current restrictions will help but excessive loosening in December is more than likley going to kill a lot of people.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
AZ Dem 1.05 GA Dem 1.06 MI Dem 1.07 NV Dem 1.04 PA Dem 1.07 WI Dem 1.08 (North Carolina was settled yesterday)
They have settled my PA bet too.
But they aren't settling 306 ECVs yet unlike Spreadex. Really poor.
@Mysticrose can you double check this? Are you sure the settlement hasn`t come from BF Sportsbook rather than the Exchange? BF Exchange hasn`t settled PA - it`s still being traded.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
You’d be more honest, Philip, if you were to preface such comment with “I’m hoping for no deal”.
I have the same preferences I've had all along.
Good deal > No deal > Bad deal
And I'm not afraid of no deal.
But the entire UK haulage, shipping, food and retail industries are. I am spookily unconflicted about who to go with.
That's not true though.
Numerous representatives of those industries have said they can cope even with no deal.
You can cherrypick some people saying they're concerned or other weasel words. It that doesn't mean the entire industry are afraid.
The Bank of England's survey shows that between a third and a half of respondents in key sectors like transport, retail and manufacturing are either completely or partially unprepared for single market exit in six weeks. You can dismiss it if you like, but the BOE take it seriously enough to expect a material economic hit in Q1.
Yes they're expecting some disruption. So am I. I said there would be a bit of disruption that will take some time to work it's way out and get to the other side, which is what all experts I have seen expect too.
That is not the same as suggesting there will be a catastrophic meltdown.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
Unfortunately your happiness is not the relevant metric.
Oh I don't know. To Aristotle happiness or eudaimomia is the top goal of every person. 'Relevant metric' might be lost on him however. Just wishing happiness on a few million who live on the island of Ireland as well. Happy to help.
You need to be careful about assuming you can put yourself in the shoes of the Irish, and indeed which 'Irish'.
Fifty years ago when I was a young men and had many more Irish friends than I do now, my impression was that despite all the nationalist talk, the Irish in the Republic were smart enough to realise that the six countries were the kind of gift you didn't necessarily want. 'You couldn't make a present of them to anybody' was one of the pithier comments I recall.
Times have changed though. I'm not sure so many would be opposed to unification now, North or South of the current border.
'Unification' means of course the repeal of the relevant parts of the Government of Ireland Act.
AZ Dem 1.05 GA Dem 1.06 MI Dem 1.07 NV Dem 1.04 PA Dem 1.07 WI Dem 1.08 (North Carolina was settled yesterday)
They have settled my PA bet too.
But they aren't settling 306 ECVs yet unlike Spreadex. Really poor.
@Mysticrose can you double check this? Are you sure the settlement hasn`t come from BF Sportsbook rather than the Exchange? BF Exchange hasn`t settled PA - it`s still being traded.
Yes, you need to distinguish between the Sportsbook (a traditional bookie model, where the punter is betting against the company) and the Exchange (punter vs punter). For obvious reasons there will always be more caution about settling the latter. Because in the latter the bookie can't settle winners without also settling losers.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
You’d be more honest, Philip, if you were to preface such comment with “I’m hoping for no deal”.
I have the same preferences I've had all along.
Good deal > No deal > Bad deal
And I'm not afraid of no deal.
But the entire UK haulage, shipping, food and retail industries are. I am spookily unconflicted about who to go with.
That's not true though.
Numerous representatives of those industries have said they can cope even with no deal.
You can cherrypick some people saying they're concerned or other weasel words. It that doesn't mean the entire industry are afraid.
The Bank of England's survey shows that between a third and a half of respondents in key sectors like transport, retail and manufacturing are either completely or partially unprepared for single market exit in six weeks. You can dismiss it if you like, but the BOE take it seriously enough to expect a material economic hit in Q1.
Yes they're expecting some disruption. So am I. I said there would be a bit of disruption that will take some time to work it's way out and get to the other side, which is what all experts I have seen expect too.
That is not the same as suggesting there will be a catastrophic meltdown.
It will be catastrophic for some people. I expect that most of us will make it out alive. If that is your success threshold.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
The chance of No Deal - "WTO" Brexit - is close to zero imo. It has always been a Not Happening Event in my view, under May, under Johnson, under any PM other than a John Redwood hardcore, ivory tower, euro-hater type. Never has so much been written by so many for so long about something so unlikely to happen. Happy be proved wrong, since No Deal is the logical conclusion of Leaver sentiment, and Leave won the Referendum, but I'm sure I won't be.
And on topic - an entertaining Header as usual from AM but I disagree with the assessment of the chances of Johnson going in 2021. That is also close to zero imo. I have a large bet at 1.9 on him still being PM on 1st July 2022 and as we speak I'm very happy with that. He won a landslide less than a year ago and we're stuck with him until 2023 at the earliest.
I never understand the point of these articles other than a dig. The man has earnt a lot of money and is spending it. Big deal. I'm far more impressed with someone like him who is investing it in (not luxury homes) for letting and helping those less well off than himself via charities and campaigns than someone who has oodles of money and can't think of anything to do with their lives other than buy gold taps and diamond tipped wheel nuts to their roller and go to lots of parties.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
You’d be more honest, Philip, if you were to preface such comment with “I’m hoping for no deal”.
I have the same preferences I've had all along.
Good deal > No deal > Bad deal
And I'm not afraid of no deal.
But the entire UK haulage, shipping, food and retail industries are. I am spookily unconflicted about who to go with.
That's not true though.
Numerous representatives of those industries have said they can cope even with no deal.
You can cherrypick some people saying they're concerned or other weasel words. It that doesn't mean the entire industry are afraid.
The Bank of England's survey shows that between a third and a half of respondents in key sectors like transport, retail and manufacturing are either completely or partially unprepared for single market exit in six weeks. You can dismiss it if you like, but the BOE take it seriously enough to expect a material economic hit in Q1.
Yes they're expecting some disruption. So am I. I said there would be a bit of disruption that will take some time to work it's way out and get to the other side, which is what all experts I have seen expect too.
That is not the same as suggesting there will be a catastrophic meltdown.
Let's be honest @Philip_Thompson, you will redefine your definition of "disruption" or "crisis" as and when it suits.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
Supposing this has happened - I have no idea. But the defence could be this. Boris is WFH. Others who come to the flat do so because they are working. This is legal in principle. Carrie interacts at a social distance because she is part of the same household as Boris.
Or maybe it's all informal baby care.
She is allegedly meeting people when he's not there.
If it's work not socialising then what's the issue?
And all the descriptions so far are work related issues.
Because, as i said earlier, she does not work for the Government. Officially or (as if it matters) unofficially. So she can't claim to be meeting Government officials for work purposes.
Just because she may have opinions over what happens in the Government, that doesn't give her the right to meet people to discuss them. That's not "work".
But you are wrong.
If she's doing what is said then she does work for the government. Officially or unofficially.
Everything discussed so far is work related. So unobjectionable, except you seem to think she isn't working. Is your objection that she is voluntarily working? I don't think that volunteering is illegal.
If the Prime minister wants officials to meet with her then fine. Just as he can ask them to meet with other friends and family members of his. Not sure it is a good way for government to operate.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
Unfortunately your happiness is not the relevant metric.
Oh I don't know. To Aristotle happiness or eudaimomia is the top goal of every person. 'Relevant metric' might be lost on him however. Just wishing happiness on a few million who live on the island of Ireland as well. Happy to help.
You need to be careful about assuming you can put yourself in the shoes of the Irish, and indeed which 'Irish'.
Fifty years ago when I was a young men and had many more Irish friends than I do now, my impression was that despite all the nationalist talk, the Irish in the Republic were smart enough to realise that the six countries were the kind of gift you didn't necessarily want. 'You couldn't make a present of them to anybody' was one of the pithier comments I recall.
Times have changed though. I'm not sure so many would be opposed to unification now, North or South of the current border.
It's about grown up politics. Same with the USA - who is big enough and charitable enough to see USA as a whole and not factions within it like Trumpians and anti Trumpians? Ireland needs that sort of leadership. Come to think of it so do we. Where are John Hume and David Trimble when you need them?
And it's not the shoes of the Irish, but the shoes of Ireland you need to be in.
Aren't we stretching the definition of luxury home a trifle?
You can't buy one luxury home for £2mn let alone five. Just some good old fashioned Daily Mail resentment stirring.
There are many parts of the country where 500k will but you quite a lot of luxury. The boy is looking after hiself and his family - like all good Tories. Personally I applaud him.
He expects businesses exporting and importing to be prepared for a post January 1 trading environment that the Government freely admits it won't be prepared for itself. With key personnel and customs systems not built until half way through next year at the earliest.
As I have said before, only a batshit-crazed PM would not extend the transition in the current circumstances.
Aren't we stretching the definition of luxury home a trifle?
You can't buy one luxury home for £2mn let alone five. Just some good old fashioned Daily Mail resentment stirring.
There are many parts of the country where 500k will but you quite a lot of luxury. The boy is looking after hiself and his family - like all good Tories. Personally I applaud him.
You don't just have to a Tory to applaud him. I do as well.
No idea if this is right, but probably the real meaning of this current drama is that Boris has to break with the head bangers and take his chance with a coalition of centrist moderates, and has now decided to do so.
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
What ever is it, one thing it absolutely is NOT is "mad and irresponsible". At absolute WORST it would have negative consequences for the Tory Party. But for anyone who believes that the first responsibility of the Government is to the country, not their electoral prospects, it is absolutely nonsensical to suggest those adjectives be applied. Things may not be as bad as some people fear. But there is clearly no economic downside to extending.
No idea if this is right, but probably the real meaning of this current drama is that Boris has to break with the head bangers and take his chance with a coalition of centrist moderates, and has now decided to do so.
Aren't we stretching the definition of luxury home a trifle?
You can't buy one luxury home for £2mn let alone five. Just some good old fashioned Daily Mail resentment stirring.
There are many parts of the country where 500k will but you quite a lot of luxury. The boy is looking after hiself and his family - like all good Tories. Personally I applaud him.
400k, surely?
That would buy you a really nice house in Cannock Chase. 5 bed, massive garden and rural location.
I don’t think the queues will be that bad. Logistics dispatchers are not daft. They simply won't despatch in the first place.
I expect that No Deal Brexit would be a damp squib initially. It will take some weeks and months for the impact to hit.
Perhaps the biggest hit will be to our negotiating power. Having ripped out the "Oven Ready" Deals Irish protocol, specifically written for the No Deal situation, no diplomat in the world will take our word as meaningful. All future deals will be cash up front.
@Foxy you are right about them not dispatching - and that's the point I have been making when I refer to everything just stopping dead. As @Cicero points out even a small delay swamps our capacity to process vehicles but worse than that ties up more vehicles than we actually have. So they get pulled from trying to cross the border which means that nothing much comes in or goes out. Which within literally a week means shortages in the supermarkets on fresh food.
This is the reality that alt-facts proponents like @Philip_Thompson refuse to accept. Any - and I do mean ANY - change to the current no checks open border with the UK shuts this country down. The EU know this even if alt-fact loons in cabinet do not. Which is why the EU are so calm - all they have to do is wait.
If we do this then yes we get a few days of newspapers shouting at Europe. Then reality kicks in - why didn't the government prepare for this? The government will try and blame industry, yet its the government who have failed to provide the IT and physical infrastructure which will quickly be "exclusive" splashed in the same papers.
Quickly enough it will become obvious to everyone, perhaps even to Philip. That with our economy utterly integrated into the EU we cannot just stop being integrated. Cicero modelled a 5 minute transition time at the border shutting us down. That's unrealistic - the average transition time at the EU external border is 45 minutes...
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
What ever is it, one thing it absolutely is NOT is "mad and irresponsible". At absolute WORST it would have negative consequences for the Tory Party. But for anyone who believes that the first responsibility of the Government is to the country, not their electoral prospects, it is absolutely nonsensical to suggest those adjectives be applied. Things may not be as bad as some people fear. But there is clearly no economic downside to extending.
Dragging out the uncertainty of the negotiations interminably would be highly irresponsible.
That is major economic downside. We need to rip off the bandage and rebuild post COVID/Brexit. Do both together now.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
She's what the Americans would call First Lady.
You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).
She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
I know some of the people involved in this fracas slightly and I wish them well personally. But all this quarrelling would be tedious if it was happening to our close relatives. None of the arguments seem to be about the day job of running the country. As a central preoccupation at a time with the equivalent of a jumbo jet full of passengers dying every day, it is beyond a joke.
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
So you think leaving in the height of a CV19 outbreak is helpful? Now that's madness.
Yes I think it is a perfect opportunity to do so.
Perfect opportunity to kill lots of people.
Drop the hyperbolic nonsense.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
How is it an "opportunity"? Other than to try to blame COVID for the negative consequences of a no deal Brexit? So a political opportunity. No more, no less.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
Yes, but also the inspiration of the worlds greatest Scottish Epic poem:
The Tay Bridge Disaster by William McGonagal
Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silv’ry Tay! Alas! I am very sorry to say That ninety lives have been taken away On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
’Twas about seven o’clock at night, And the wind it blew with all its might, And the rain came pouring down, And the dark clouds seem’d to frown, And the Demon of the air seem’d to say- “I’ll blow down the Bridge of Tay.”
When the train left Edinburgh The passengers’ hearts were light and felt no sorrow, But Boreas blew a terrific gale, Which made their hearts for to quail, And many of the passengers with fear did say- “I hope God will send us safe across the Bridge of Tay.”
But when the train came near to Wormit Bay, Boreas he did loud and angry bray, And shook the central girders of the Bridge of Tay On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
So the train sped on with all its might, And Bonnie Dundee soon hove in sight, And the passengers’ hearts felt light, Thinking they would enjoy themselves on the New Year, With their friends at home they lov’d most dear, And wish them all a happy New Year.
So the train mov’d slowly along the Bridge of Tay, Until it was about midway, Then the central girders with a crash gave way, And down went the train and passengers into the Tay! The Storm Fiend did loudly bray, Because ninety lives had been taken away, On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
(Continues in much the same style for quite some time...)
Exactly. The whole thing was a double disaster - first the bridge and then McGonagall comes along with the world's worst poem.
Edit: which as has been observed by others makes t a very odd operation designator. Could someone have had McGonagall's equally awful poem on the death of Queen Victoria in mind??
... She has been a model and faithful Queen, Very few like her have been; She has acted virtuously during her long reign, And I’m afraid the world will never see her like again. ...
So, here's something I've not seen picked up by the pol commentators. Bit Shakespearean. By being so weak that he couldn't control his own senior advisor, Johnson allowed the advisor to sack the loyal Chancellor and by accident have him replaced with someone who is now very likely to be Johnson's nemesis.
A cop-out by Mrs Tice? It must already be a done deal
She's a contraindicator.
Expecting to find out what's happening from her is like asking Laura Pidcock her opinion.
Laura Pidcock, as far as I am aware, does not share pillow talk with Richard "Mr Brexit" Tice.
You missed the point.
Tice/Oaleshott have no greater insight into what is going on than other fruitcakes, nuts and loons like Pidcock etc.
Her ramblings are meaningless.
No I didn't!
I look forward to you defending Johnson's inspirational wisdom in calling for a Covid-19 justified transition extension when Boris makes the announcement.
Aren't we stretching the definition of luxury home a trifle?
You can't buy one luxury home for £2mn let alone five. Just some good old fashioned Daily Mail resentment stirring.
There are many parts of the country where 500k will but you quite a lot of luxury. The boy is looking after hiself and his family - like all good Tories. Personally I applaud him.
Nice family home for £400k doesn't mean luxury. I don't imagine there is anyone senior at the DM or its owners who would buy a property for £400k and say it was luxury (Dacre as I recall lives in a stately home). It's just a typical DM hatchet job designed to undermine Rashford's successful campaigning on child poverty.
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
So you think leaving in the height of a CV19 outbreak is helpful? Now that's madness.
Yes I think it is a perfect opportunity to do so.
Perfect opportunity to kill lots of people.
Drop the hyperbolic nonsense.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
How is it an "opportunity"? Other than to try to blame COVID for the negative consequences of a no deal Brexit? So a political opportunity. No more, no less.
Yes I completely dismiss it, as did Hancock etc. Why are vaccines that are going to be flown in, in specially arranged courier arrangements as a matter of national security going to be held up? Don't be insane. If you'd thought it through for five seconds rather than fearmongering and projectioning you'd know it was a ridiculous proposition.
As for the economics, the country is already disrupted and going to have to rebuild. Undergoing disruption once is less damaging than going through this twice.
If Brexit is as bad as you imagine it's going to be then putting it off for 12 months then still doing it would be absolute insanity. We would be saying to companies post COVID don't bother rebuilding or investing yet as we have this other psychodrama still hanging over you like the Sword of Damocles. Why would you want that?
Alternatively we can get it over and done with now, get through some disruption at a time people are already not travelling as much as normal so roads are quieter than normal anyway ... And then next year we could be in a position where both Brexit and COVID19 are in the rear view mirror. Where potentially we are through the disruption of Brexit, have a vaccinated population and can invest and rebuild the economy with confidence.
What possible reason is there to drag out the uncertainty and remove confidence rather than just getting on with it? It is madness and economic vandalism.
No idea if this is right, but probably the real meaning of this current drama is that Boris has to break with the head bangers and take his chance with a coalition of centrist moderates, and has now decided to do so.
Are there many of them left in the PCP?
No. he would have to be a grown up politician and speak to and for the majority who are centrists among the voters, and take his chance.
And I bet if there was an extension she would be screaming blue murder in 30 seconds flat.
I think it's worth considering that there are two quite different kinds of extension possible here. One would be a "kick the can down the road" extension to enable further negotiations. This could only be justified if there was a feeling that a breakthrough was imminent, but after years of negotiation it's hard to see how "one more heave" is going to get the job done. It would also be an implicit admission that the status quo is a more comfortable place to continue negotiation from than the reality of a hard Brexit, which is not what the UK government says in public (I've no idea what they believe privately).
There is an another kind of extension, though: if an agreement is reached, but that agreement requires substantial new infrastructure (customs checks and so on) in order to work, it would make sense for both sides to give each other the time to put those systems in place before making them mandatory. We're already at the point where if a deal was done tomorrow, we'd have a bare six weeks to implement whatever terms are agreed. So, unless the deal ends up preserving a lot of today's systems and practices, some kind of period will be required to implement the new ones. An "implementation period", if you will.
F1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).
I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.
But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.
Good piece. To add, Gasly is going to start from the pit lane for Parc Fermé infringements, sounds like they’re giving him a setup change. Definitely no penalty for Stroll and yes, the early start is to allow the maximum four-hour window for the race before sunset, with a little contingency thrown in.
No obvious bets so far stand out, Bottas to win at 17.5 maybe, or Russell for points at 5.5,
I’ll take another look in a couple of hours, once we’ve seen the weather a little more closely.
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
So you think leaving in the height of a CV19 outbreak is helpful? Now that's madness.
Yes I think it is a perfect opportunity to do so.
Perfect opportunity to kill lots of people.
Drop the hyperbolic nonsense.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
How is it an "opportunity"? Other than to try to blame COVID for the negative consequences of a no deal Brexit? So a political opportunity. No more, no less.
Yes I completely dismiss it, as did Hancock etc. Why are vaccines that are going to be flown in, in specially arranged courier arrangements as a matter of national security going to be held up? Don't be insane. If you'd thought it through for five seconds rather than fearmongering and projectioning you'd know it was a ridiculous proposition.
As for the economics, the country is already disrupted and going to have to rebuild. Undergoing disruption once is less damaging than going through this twice.
If Brexit is as bad as you imagine it's going to be then putting it off for 12 months then still doing it would be absolute insanity. We would be saying to companies post COVID don't bother rebuilding or investing yet as we have this other psychodrama still hanging over you like the Sword of Damocles. Why would you want that?
Alternatively we can get it over and done with now, get through some disruption at a time people are already not travelling as much as normal so roads are quieter than normal anyway ... And then next year we could be in a position where both Brexit and COVID19 are in the rear view mirror. Where potentially we are through the disruption of Brexit, have a vaccinated population and can invest and rebuild the economy with confidence.
What possible reason is there to drag out the uncertainty and remove confidence rather than just getting on with it? It is madness and economic vandalism.
It’s not just vaccines that people need. There are plenty of other medicines people need to stay alive/healthy. Are they all going to be flown in? And if there is disruption to their supplies, what happens to those people dependent on such medicines? Such as my brother.
A cop-out by Mrs Tice? It must already be a done deal
She's a contraindicator.
Expecting to find out what's happening from her is like asking Laura Pidcock her opinion.
Laura Pidcock, as far as I am aware, does not share pillow talk with Richard "Mr Brexit" Tice.
You missed the point.
Tice/Oaleshott have no greater insight into what is going on than other fruitcakes, nuts and loons like Pidcock etc.
Her ramblings are meaningless.
No I didn't!
I look forward to you defending Johnson's inspirational wisdom in calling for a Covid-19 justified transition extension when Boris makes the announcement.
A transition to a defined endpoint, a genuine transition or implementation period is entirely reasonable. But then the negotiations will have finished.
An extension without defining the end point is insanity and I will not support that.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
So you think leaving in the height of a CV19 outbreak is helpful? Now that's madness.
Yes I think it is a perfect opportunity to do so.
Perfect opportunity to kill lots of people.
Drop the hyperbolic nonsense.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
How is it an "opportunity"? Other than to try to blame COVID for the negative consequences of a no deal Brexit? So a political opportunity. No more, no less.
Yes I completely dismiss it, as did Hancock etc. Why are vaccines that are going to be flown in, in specially arranged courier arrangements as a matter of national security going to be held up? Don't be insane. If you'd thought it through for five seconds rather than fearmongering and projectioning you'd know it was a ridiculous proposition.
As for the economics, the country is already disrupted and going to have to rebuild. Undergoing disruption once is less damaging than going through this twice.
If Brexit is as bad as you imagine it's going to be then putting it off for 12 months then still doing it would be absolute insanity. We would be saying to companies post COVID don't bother rebuilding or investing yet as we have this other psychodrama still hanging over you like the Sword of Damocles. Why would you want that?
Alternatively we can get it over and done with now, get through some disruption at a time people are already not travelling as much as normal so roads are quieter than normal anyway ... And then next year we could be in a position where both Brexit and COVID19 are in the rear view mirror. Where potentially we are through the disruption of Brexit, have a vaccinated population and can invest and rebuild the economy with confidence.
What possible reason is there to drag out the uncertainty and remove confidence rather than just getting on with it? It is madness and economic vandalism.
It’s not just vaccines that people need. There are plenty of other medicines people need to stay alive/healthy. Are they all going to be flown in? And if there is disruption to their supplies, what happens to those people dependent on such medicines? Such as my brother.
I don't believe there will be disruptions to medicine.
I also believe such disruptions are less likely if we have our post Brexit disruption now while the roads and international travel are quieter than if we have it when demand has gone back up to normal.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
I'm intrigued. How will it get out of a traffic jam when it's caught in one? Does it grow wings and fly?
What I want to know is how refrigerated mRNA vaccines are transported. And how this squares with the hand-waving going on on this thread.
But a vaccine is useless if all the necessary kit can't be brought in. Face masks, gowns, disposable disinfectant swabs, etc. At a timr when everyone else in the world wants some. Okay, current production of PPE is high cos of the pox. But needles? Syringes? I don't know.
A cop-out by Mrs Tice? It must already be a done deal
She's a contraindicator.
Expecting to find out what's happening from her is like asking Laura Pidcock her opinion.
Laura Pidcock, as far as I am aware, does not share pillow talk with Richard "Mr Brexit" Tice.
You missed the point.
Tice/Oaleshott have no greater insight into what is going on than other fruitcakes, nuts and loons like Pidcock etc.
Her ramblings are meaningless.
No I didn't!
I look forward to you defending Johnson's inspirational wisdom in calling for a Covid-19 justified transition extension when Boris makes the announcement.
A transition to a defined endpoint, a genuine transition or implementation period is entirely reasonable. But then the negotiations will have finished.
An extension without defining the end point is insanity and I will not support that.
We shall see. Should it come to pass, I will look forward to your reverse ferret.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
As I said the other day.
Coming in is under the control of the UK.
It's lorries heading back to France that we have no control over whatsoever, any major delays there means that lorry cannot return to the UK as effectively as would have been without that problem at the French border.
The question is, how confident are these no dealers that the French will not cause delays for lorries going back across the sea?
A cop-out by Mrs Tice? It must already be a done deal
She's a contraindicator.
Expecting to find out what's happening from her is like asking Laura Pidcock her opinion.
Laura Pidcock, as far as I am aware, does not share pillow talk with Richard "Mr Brexit" Tice.
You missed the point.
Tice/Oaleshott have no greater insight into what is going on than other fruitcakes, nuts and loons like Pidcock etc.
Her ramblings are meaningless.
No I didn't!
I look forward to you defending Johnson's inspirational wisdom in calling for a Covid-19 justified transition extension when Boris makes the announcement.
A transition to a defined endpoint, a genuine transition or implementation period is entirely reasonable. But then the negotiations will have finished.
An extension without defining the end point is insanity and I will not support that.
We shall see. Should it come to pass, I will look forward to your reverse ferret.
I'm beginning to have visions of someone claiming that he has the electoral mandate andm oral right to walk across the M1 and sit down in the fast lane and blame the drivers for the consequences.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
If Budgie the Little Helicopter is a nickname for the military I wasn't aware of then yes.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
Just because you claim actual experts are claiming distress doesn't make it true.
I’m not sure what else could possibly make a stronger claim to “actual experts claiming distress”, but apparently every single major haulage group in the UK screaming in public about it isn’t enough.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
If Budgie the Little Helicopter is a nickname for the military I wasn't aware of then yes.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
Ah, now I see. When the military are called in it's because of some ****ing great disaster, or a massive rebellion or terrorist insurgency.
I also believe such disruptions are less likely...
Do you believe in the Great Flying Spaghetti Monster too?
Just because you believe something does not mean that reality will listen and obey.
Its alt-fact lunacy. *Any* delay at all vs the current c. 2mins crossing time creates a huge blockage which gums the whole thing completely. The new computer system to manage customs doesn't exist. The old computer system can't handle the number of transactions. The people needed to process the transactions on the computer system that either doesn't yet exist or can't handle them don't exist.
On 1st January 2021 we either maintain the status quo. Or everything stops. What Philip is saying is literal wishful thinking that is demolished by the facts on the ground and not shared by anyone who is actually involved in the actual business of logistics.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
If Budgie the Little Helicopter is a nickname for the military I wasn't aware of then yes.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
Ah, now I see. When the military are called in it's because of some ****ing great disaster, or a massive rebellion or terrorist insurgency.
Or, you know, we could extend the transition period and not need to rely on this...
I also believe such disruptions are less likely...
Do you believe in the Great Flying Spaghetti Monster too?
Just because you believe something does not mean that reality will listen and obey.
No, I'm an atheist so I'm used to dismissing people's religious certainty of fire, brimstone and damnation.
This isn't Sodom and Gommorah, we aren't about to turn into a pillar of ash and damnation isn't about to be inflicted upon us. People share these scare stories if you don't buy into their religion but I'm happy to dismiss such nonsense and life goes on as it will in January deal or no deal.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
If Budgie the Little Helicopter is a nickname for the military I wasn't aware of then yes.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
Ah, now I see. When the military are called in it's because of some ****ing great disaster, or a massive rebellion or terrorist insurgency.
COVID19 doesn't count as some ****ING great disaster in its own right?
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
As I said the other day.
Coming in is under the control of the UK.
It's lorries heading back to France that we have no control over whatsoever, any major delays there means that lorry cannot return to the UK as effectively as would have been without that problem at the French border.
The question is, how confident are these no dealers that the French will not cause delays for lorries going back across the sea?
The answer to that depends on how much confidence you think the French have that the UK will not reciprocate by causing delays for lorries coming into the UK, such as those stuffed with perishable French agricultural exports for example, in the event that the French choose to play silly buggers.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
If Budgie the Little Helicopter is a nickname for the military I wasn't aware of then yes.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
Why not stop making it up as you go along, and research what you are talking about a bit. What have the military got to do with it, unless there is a parallel road and motorway system reserved for their use of which the public knows nothing, and unless there is a Royal Pharmaceutical Distribution Corps with all the relevant training, certification and incredibly expensive specialised vehicles and storage facilities, on standby? It's just classic brexitoid magical thinking to think that talk of "special couriers" gets round the fact that there is just the one road network. The one Hermes trucks use.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
I cannot foresee any plausible circumstance where the delivery of vaccine supplies would be allowed to be compromised.
Please outline one for me.
A traffic jam is a traffic jam. That is how simple it is.
And you think a vaccine is going to sit in traffic? Don't be so naive!
So how else are vaccines plus the huge weight of refrigeration stuff that goes with them transported from where they are made to where they are needed? Budgie the Little Helicopter?
If Budgie the Little Helicopter is a nickname for the military I wasn't aware of then yes.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
Ah, now I see. When the military are called in it's because of some ****ing great disaster, or a massive rebellion or terrorist insurgency.
COVID19 doesn't count as some ****ING great disaster in its own right?
Well, the lkast time the Raff were called in was because the Gmt screwed up PPE. So you can see why most of us have zero confidence.
An extension is the path of least resistance. Johnson just needs to make it look like the EU has backed down.
An extension would be utterly mad and irresponsible and is only backed by those who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Same old game. Same old story.
So you think leaving in the height of a CV19 outbreak is helpful? Now that's madness.
Yes I think it is a perfect opportunity to do so.
Perfect opportunity to kill lots of people.
Drop the hyperbolic nonsense.
Really? You completely dismiss the possibility that the delivery of vaccine supplies could be compromised?
How is it an "opportunity"? Other than to try to blame COVID for the negative consequences of a no deal Brexit? So a political opportunity. No more, no less.
Yes I completely dismiss it, as did Hancock etc. Why are vaccines that are going to be flown in, in specially arranged courier arrangements as a matter of national security going to be held up? Don't be insane. If you'd thought it through for five seconds rather than fearmongering and projectioning you'd know it was a ridiculous proposition.
As for the economics, the country is already disrupted and going to have to rebuild. Undergoing disruption once is less damaging than going through this twice.
If Brexit is as bad as you imagine it's going to be then putting it off for 12 months then still doing it would be absolute insanity. We would be saying to companies post COVID don't bother rebuilding or investing yet as we have this other psychodrama still hanging over you like the Sword of Damocles. Why would you want that?
Alternatively we can get it over and done with now, get through some disruption at a time people are already not travelling as much as normal so roads are quieter than normal anyway ... And then next year we could be in a position where both Brexit and COVID19 are in the rear view mirror. Where potentially we are through the disruption of Brexit, have a vaccinated population and can invest and rebuild the economy with confidence.
What possible reason is there to drag out the uncertainty and remove confidence rather than just getting on with it? It is madness and economic vandalism.
It’s not just vaccines that people need. There are plenty of other medicines people need to stay alive/healthy. Are they all going to be flown in? And if there is disruption to their supplies, what happens to those people dependent on such medicines? Such as my brother.
I don't believe there will be disruptions to medicine.
I also believe such disruptions are less likely if we have our post Brexit disruption now while the roads and international travel are quieter than if we have it when demand has gone back up to normal.
Just because you believe something is irrelevant. Even the Health Secretary would not guarantee that there would be no disruption to the supply of medicines. And if there is any disruption at all, there is a risk that the health - and in some cases, lives - of people here will be compromised. Bluntly people could die because of this.
This is the state failing in its most basic duty- to try and protect its people from harm. Why? Because it refuses to engage with reality and because it prizes belief in a cause over anything else.
Comments
If she's doing what is said then she does work for the government. Officially or unofficially.
Everything discussed so far is work related. So unobjectionable, except you seem to think she isn't working. Is your objection that she is voluntarily working? I don't think that volunteering is illegal.
I suppose Cummings thought he was unsackable, just like Stafford thought he was unbeheadable.
But this line stood out - “ Public appointments and contracts appear to be doled out based on personal contacts rather than rigorous procurement and the speed thus obtained has not noticeably improved the results.”
It is what I’ve been saying on here - despite the ridicule from some. Today we learn of more instances of people using public office for private gain - their own or those of their clients. On and on it goes. It is disgusting. Those who are on the inside benefit. Those on the outside are left to suffer. The lot of them should be booted out if they continue to have no regard for any basic norms of honesty or integrity.
Fifty years ago when I was a young men and had many more Irish friends than I do now, my impression was that despite all the nationalist talk, the Irish in the Republic were smart enough to realise that the six countries were the kind of gift you didn't necessarily want. 'You couldn't make a present of them to anybody' was one of the pithier comments I recall.
Times have changed though. I'm not sure so many would be opposed to unification now, North or South of the current border.
That is not the same as suggesting there will be a catastrophic meltdown.
What would one use Stormont for? An hotel?
And on topic - an entertaining Header as usual from AM but I disagree with the assessment of the chances of Johnson going in 2021. That is also close to zero imo. I have a large bet at 1.9 on him still being PM on 1st July 2022 and as we speak I'm very happy with that. He won a landslide less than a year ago and we're stuck with him until 2023 at the earliest.
Will we be only happy if he lives on porridge?
Same old game. Same old story.
And it's not the shoes of the Irish, but the shoes of Ireland you need to be in.
Luckily being on here has given me plenty of practice.
And I bet if there was an extension she would be screaming blue murder in 30 seconds flat.
That would buy you a really nice house in Cannock Chase. 5 bed, massive garden and rural location.
This is the reality that alt-facts proponents like @Philip_Thompson refuse to accept. Any - and I do mean ANY - change to the current no checks open border with the UK shuts this country down. The EU know this even if alt-fact loons in cabinet do not. Which is why the EU are so calm - all they have to do is wait.
If we do this then yes we get a few days of newspapers shouting at Europe. Then reality kicks in - why didn't the government prepare for this? The government will try and blame industry, yet its the government who have failed to provide the IT and physical infrastructure which will quickly be "exclusive" splashed in the same papers.
Quickly enough it will become obvious to everyone, perhaps even to Philip. That with our economy utterly integrated into the EU we cannot just stop being integrated. Cicero modelled a 5 minute transition time at the border shutting us down. That's unrealistic - the average transition time at the EU external border is 45 minutes...
Expecting to find out what's happening from her is like asking Laura Pidcock her opinion.
That is major economic downside. We need to rip off the bandage and rebuild post COVID/Brexit. Do both together now.
Tice/Oaleshott have no greater insight into what is going on than other fruitcakes, nuts and loons like Pidcock etc.
Her ramblings are meaningless.
How is it an "opportunity"? Other than to try to blame COVID for the negative consequences of a no deal Brexit? So a political opportunity. No more, no less.
Edit: which as has been observed by others makes t a very odd operation designator. Could someone have had McGonagall's equally awful poem on the death of Queen Victoria in mind??
...
She has been a model and faithful Queen,
Very few like her have been;
She has acted virtuously during her long reign,
And I’m afraid the world will never see her like again.
...
Please outline one for me.
Surely they were more likely to vote for the genuine loony candidates?
Edit - I have left a reply (as my Twitter account is private I can't repost here):
'So, if people who didn't vote for Labour had voted for Labour, they might have done a bit better?
Wow. What an amazing insight.'
I look forward to you defending Johnson's inspirational wisdom in calling for a Covid-19 justified transition extension when Boris makes the announcement.
https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1327920044035203072
As I said when seeing a photograph of Johnson's victory speech in Uxbridge:
A joke candidate is in shot, as are several people in fancy dress.
As for the economics, the country is already disrupted and going to have to rebuild. Undergoing disruption once is less damaging than going through this twice.
If Brexit is as bad as you imagine it's going to be then putting it off for 12 months then still doing it would be absolute insanity. We would be saying to companies post COVID don't bother rebuilding or investing yet as we have this other psychodrama still hanging over you like the Sword of Damocles. Why would you want that?
Alternatively we can get it over and done with now, get through some disruption at a time people are already not travelling as much as normal so roads are quieter than normal anyway ... And then next year we could be in a position where both Brexit and COVID19 are in the rear view mirror. Where potentially we are through the disruption of Brexit, have a vaccinated population and can invest and rebuild the economy with confidence.
What possible reason is there to drag out the uncertainty and remove confidence rather than just getting on with it? It is madness and economic vandalism.
There is an another kind of extension, though: if an agreement is reached, but that agreement requires substantial new infrastructure (customs checks and so on) in order to work, it would make sense for both sides to give each other the time to put those systems in place before making them mandatory. We're already at the point where if a deal was done tomorrow, we'd have a bare six weeks to implement whatever terms are agreed. So, unless the deal ends up preserving a lot of today's systems and practices, some kind of period will be required to implement the new ones. An "implementation period", if you will.
An extension without defining the end point is insanity and I will not support that.
I also believe such disruptions are less likely if we have our post Brexit disruption now while the roads and international travel are quieter than if we have it when demand has gone back up to normal.
But a vaccine is useless if all the necessary kit can't be brought in. Face masks, gowns, disposable disinfectant swabs, etc. At a timr when everyone else in the world wants some. Okay, current production of PPE is high cos of the pox. But needles? Syringes? I don't know.
Coming in is under the control of the UK.
It's lorries heading back to France that we have no control over whatsoever, any major delays there means that lorry cannot return to the UK as effectively as would have been without that problem at the French border.
The question is, how confident are these no dealers that the French will not cause delays for lorries going back across the sea?
Just because you believe something does not mean that reality will listen and obey.
What did you think they'd do, send them off with a Hermes delivery truck?
I’m not sure what else could possibly make a stronger claim to “actual experts claiming distress”, but apparently every single major haulage group in the UK screaming in public about it isn’t enough.
On 1st January 2021 we either maintain the status quo. Or everything stops. What Philip is saying is literal wishful thinking that is demolished by the facts on the ground and not shared by anyone who is actually involved in the actual business of logistics.
This isn't Sodom and Gommorah, we aren't about to turn into a pillar of ash and damnation isn't about to be inflicted upon us. People share these scare stories if you don't buy into their religion but I'm happy to dismiss such nonsense and life goes on as it will in January deal or no deal.
This is the state failing in its most basic duty- to try and protect its people from harm. Why? Because it refuses to engage with reality and because it prizes belief in a cause over anything else.