Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Dropping the pilot – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
imageDropping the pilot – politicalbetting.com

To listen to some Conservatives, you would have thought that Carrie Symonds had slain the wicked witch of the west with a click of her shoes. Excitable munchkin MPs are cavorting with joy at the sudden fall of Dominic Cummings. These MPs, who divide equally between cowardly lions, tin men without hearts and scarecrows with no brains, all now expect a return to true Conservative government (though they disagree about what this would mean in practice).

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    edited November 15
    And still Betfair haven't settled on Biden 300-329 ECVs

    I'd love to see a thread from Mike on the positives and negatives of the different betting agencies. Obviously it would have to skate carefully but a betting site such as this packs a punch and we have a right to assess the market operators.

    Spreadex suspended their US election market for most of the night but they have at least now settled.

    Betfair seem incredibly slow to settle up on markets that are by now not in dispute.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak is coming under fire, this time from a prominent SAGE member. There's no doubt that 'Eat Out to Help Out' in fact helped spread the virus.

    Although I think Sunak remains favourite to succeed Johnson I'm glad I cashed out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/sage-expertflip-flopping-on-covid-restrictions-unwise
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,886
    edited November 15
    Maximum danger for Johnson will be when he has to make changes to his education policy. That may involve either closing schools, or cancelling exams.

    I am not sure how long schools can keep going, as I have said. Too many things are against us. But equally, he probably won’t be blamed for that because few people outside schools know how much of a mess reopening has been.

    So the really damaging moment will be when he has to cancel exams again. For that reason, he will probably delay doing so past the moment when realistic alternatives can be implemented (as happened last time) and then fail to be honest about the choices so he screws everything up again.

    That’s a long winded way of saying he’s likely to be out at the end of August, if not before, so Alistair’s tip looks good.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396
    Johnson is the cushion bearing the impression of the last arse to sit on him. We are witnessing the baton being passed from Dominic to Princess Nut Nuts, and I can see her getting quite disliked quite quickly. I would reinvest a small part of the Biden payout in this tip, if it had happened.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    "Take away the lightning rod and the next bolt kills you."

    That's very good.

    But maybe Carrie will be the next lightning rod? Boris Johnson isn't exactly known for his lifelong devotion to partners.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak is coming under fire, this time from a prominent SAGE member. There's no doubt that 'Eat Out to Help Out' in fact helped spread the virus.

    Although I think Sunak remains favourite to succeed Johnson I'm glad I cashed out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/sage-expertflip-flopping-on-covid-restrictions-unwise

    What spread the virus was unis going back. True, there were avoidable mistakes over the summer, but that was the grand daddy. And from unis, it inevitably leaked into the wider community and is now rampaging through schools as well while everything else is shut down.

    It’s even more bizarre because he now wants to move to a post-results admissions service, which can’t be done without moving the start of the university year to January. Here was a golden chance to do it. And he muffed it.

    I think ‘average minds’ is an exceedingly generous assessment of this government’s intellectual capacity.
    An academic was telling me there is a plan to return to face-to-face teaching in January. I found it quite unbelievable. Do these people never learn anything?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,397

    And still Betfair haven't settled on Biden 300-329 ECVs

    I'd love to see a thread from Mike on the positives and negatives of the different betting agencies. Obviously it would have to skate carefully but a betting site such as this packs a punch and we have a right to assess the market operators.

    Spreadex suspended their US election market for most of the night but they have at least now settled.

    Betfair seem incredibly slow to settle up on markets that are by now not in dispute.

    Something like that is in the offing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396
    The nickname is a devastating and possibly fatal legacy, though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,213

  • Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.08
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.1
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.09
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.07
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.08
    (North Carolina was settled yesterday)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074

    Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.08
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.1
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.09
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.07
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.08
    (North Carolina was settled yesterday)

    They have settled my PA bet too.

    But they aren't settling 306 ECVs yet unlike Spreadex. Really poor.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074

    And still Betfair haven't settled on Biden 300-329 ECVs

    I'd love to see a thread from Mike on the positives and negatives of the different betting agencies. Obviously it would have to skate carefully but a betting site such as this packs a punch and we have a right to assess the market operators.

    Spreadex suspended their US election market for most of the night but they have at least now settled.

    Betfair seem incredibly slow to settle up on markets that are by now not in dispute.

    Something like that is in the offing.
    Brilliant Mike
  • felixfelix Posts: 11,178
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54947661

    Labour want new law to censor anti-vax fake news. As a libertarian this worries me and I doubt the oracticality frankly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Good morning, everyone.

    Time to start pondering the race. No idea if it'll be wet or not... the forecast from the BBC was worthless for qualifying. If I hadn't checked out a race report for P3 I would've assumed qualifying would be dry.
  • Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.08
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.1
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.09
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.07
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.08
    (North Carolina was settled yesterday)

    They have settled my PA bet too.

    That's odd. PA (Pennsylvania) is still open. Are you sure it is not the PA House or Senate race they settled?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    F1: The race starts at 10.10am. I don't know if they brought this forward but it's two hours earlier than I was expecting.
  • On-topic. Boris exit date. Note that Betfair exchange market rules specify bets will be void if ill health forces his replacement.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    .... ministerial reshuffle “in January, or maybe earlier”.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    felix said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54947661

    Labour want new law to censor anti-vax fake news. As a libertarian this worries me and I doubt the oracticality frankly.

    Look on the bright side. The "vaccine tsar" may end up in court.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,886
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak is coming under fire, this time from a prominent SAGE member. There's no doubt that 'Eat Out to Help Out' in fact helped spread the virus.

    Although I think Sunak remains favourite to succeed Johnson I'm glad I cashed out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/sage-expertflip-flopping-on-covid-restrictions-unwise

    What spread the virus was unis going back. True, there were avoidable mistakes over the summer, but that was the grand daddy. And from unis, it inevitably leaked into the wider community and is now rampaging through schools as well while everything else is shut down.

    It’s even more bizarre because he now wants to move to a post-results admissions service, which can’t be done without moving the start of the university year to January. Here was a golden chance to do it. And he muffed it.

    I think ‘average minds’ is an exceedingly generous assessment of this government’s intellectual capacity.
    An academic was telling me there is a plan to return to face-to-face teaching in January. I found it quite unbelievable. Do these people never learn anything?
    Unfortunately, it would appear not.

    But if anything, I would say it’s a sign of how venal university managers are, rather than how stupid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. B2, has Carrie decided what position her manservant will adopt? :p
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    Personality clashes are always going to happen but one thing I find odd, bordering on extraordinary, is that Allegra Sutton was one the one hand lining up with what appears to be be a very vengeful Carrie Symonds and on the other spending much of the day in tears at someone one's unpleasantness.

    Another question is what mischief will Cummings get up to now?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    Personality clashes are always going to happen but one thing I find odd, bordering on extraordinary, is that Allegra Sutton was one the one hand lining up with what appears to be be a very vengeful Carrie Symonds and on the other spending much of the day in tears at someone one's unpleasantness.

    Another question is what mischief will Cummings get up to now?

    I didn’t think Stratton was a shrinking violet, so the now widely reported story is surprising. As was the talk about her asking for a pay rise, if there is truth in it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    King Cole, crocodile tears? Or fictional briefing?

    Anyway, F1 ramble will be up shortly, with literally two tips.
  • A new video on vote fraud, this time in Michigan, from the Stand-Up Maths guy.


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).

    I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.

    But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/turkey-pre-race-2020.html
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,294
    I think Paddy's have read this or somebody has lumped on. Only 11/8 available now.

    They still havent settled my US election bet but I can wait.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).

    I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.

    But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/turkey-pre-race-2020.html

    Good piece. To add, Gasly is going to start from the pit lane for Parc Fermé infringements, sounds like they’re giving him a setup change. Definitely no penalty for Stroll and yes, the early start is to allow the maximum four-hour window for the race before sunset, with a little contingency thrown in.

    No obvious bets so far stand out, Bottas to win at 17.5 maybe, or Russell for points at 5.5,

    I’ll take another look in a couple of hours, once we’ve seen the weather a little more closely.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,243

    I think Paddy's have read this or somebody has lumped on. Only 11/8 available now.

    They still havent settled my US election bet but I can wait.

    Don't Unibet have 6/4 still?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,886
    edited November 15

    Personality clashes are always going to happen but one thing I find odd, bordering on extraordinary, is that Allegra Sutton was one the one hand lining up with what appears to be be a very vengeful Carrie Symonds and on the other spending much of the day in tears at someone one's unpleasantness.

    Another question is what mischief will Cummings get up to now?

    I think we should consider the distinct possibility that the main media source, who was of course not Cummings, how could anyone even think that, is simply making shit up to be difficult and disruptive.

    As for the rest, he will write tens of thousands of words in blogposts about how brilliant he is and how it’s all the fault of the lizard people the blob that everything he tried was a complete disaster. And everyone will either laugh at him or ignore him.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Pro-democracy protests in Peru.
    Anti-democracy protests in America.
    Hmmm.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,243

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).

    I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.

    But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/turkey-pre-race-2020.html

    Sorry for this question, but do you have a tracker of your bets and outcomes? I know very little about F1 and want to trust you, but was wondering if there's a way to check your record?
  • Sandpit said:

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).

    I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.

    But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/turkey-pre-race-2020.html

    Good piece. To add, Gasly is going to start from the pit lane for Parc Fermé infringements, sounds like they’re giving him a setup change. Definitely no penalty for Stroll and yes, the early start is to allow the maximum four-hour window for the race before sunset, with a little contingency thrown in.

    No obvious bets so far stand out, Bottas to win at 17.5 maybe, or Russell for points at 5.5,

    I’ll take another look in a couple of hours, once we’ve seen the weather a little more closely.
    3/1 Hamilton with Betfred looks big to me.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926
    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,770

    Personality clashes are always going to happen but one thing I find odd, bordering on extraordinary, is that Allegra Sutton was one the one hand lining up with what appears to be be a very vengeful Carrie Symonds and on the other spending much of the day in tears at someone one's unpleasantness.

    Another question is what mischief will Cummings get up to now?

    We know Johnson has tremendous 'cock range' but he definitely has a type: odd looking and posh. AS definitely falls into that category so I wonder how long it'll be before he strays from Princess Nut Nuts again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,886
    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    Tradespeople are allowed in, so she can still meet fixers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Sandpit said:

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).

    I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.

    But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/turkey-pre-race-2020.html

    Good piece. To add, Gasly is going to start from the pit lane for Parc Fermé infringements, sounds like they’re giving him a setup change. Definitely no penalty for Stroll and yes, the early start is to allow the maximum four-hour window for the race before sunset, with a little contingency thrown in.

    No obvious bets so far stand out, Bottas to win at 17.5 maybe, or Russell for points at 5.5,

    I’ll take another look in a couple of hours, once we’ve seen the weather a little more closely.
    3/1 Hamilton with Betfred looks big to me.
    He was something similar on Betfair when I checked. Usually I’d go for a bet like that, but I think we will see a conservative race from Lewis today, as he can lift the title so long as Bottas doesn’t outscore him by 8 points or more.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    Encouraging the public to visit bars and restaurants and then closing down such venues when Covid-19 cases spike is not a “sensible way to run the epidemic”, a government scientific adviser has said.

    Prof John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), urged a long-term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic.

    Current national lockdown measures in England mean venues such as pubs, bars and restaurants have been forced to close but are expected to be allowed to reopen when the restrictions lift.

    Edmunds raised concerns about “flip-flopping” between incentives such as Eat Out To Help Out and closures.
  • alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194
    Scott_xP said:
    Of all the things to apologise for!

    Don’t they have an “Escalate this quickly to a senior UK-based PR person” process for their weekend social media team?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,886
    Scott_xP said:
    Just wait until they announce an emergency...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Sandpit, I also have a £1 free bet on Gasly to win, but that was pre-qualifying.

    Mr. Quincel, I don't have an online live tracker of that.

    This season, aided by some luck, I've offered 20 bets in my blog (not including those of today), of which 9 or 10 have come off (difference because one was a bet-and-hedge where only the hedge came off).

    With £10 stakes per bet, that comes to £152 or £138.

    It is worth mentioning that I've done this for a decade or so. I've had a number of seasons in the red, although these have been outweighed by those in the green.

    If you're uncertain I'd suggest backing the Leclerc bet and not the Albon one. The Albon bet is value but still odds against. The Leclerc bet, all else being equal, really should come off.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    Surely the point is that the rules apply only to little people, whatever her status.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    She fucking isn’t. Prince Philip is.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,499
    We seem to have forgotten that Carrie “was asked to leave her post as director of communications after sources claimed party chiefs had said her performance was poor, and questions were raised over significant unjustified expenses claims.”
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Sandpit, Gasly may or may not be starting from the pit lane:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,324

    After all the talk about self driving cars....Uber getting out of that game.

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/13/uber-in-talks-to-sell-atg-self-driving-unit-to-aurora/

    Absolute scenes. Uber boosters always used the self driving research was the knight in shining armour to justify Uber's existence. Sure, they would say, they are a gigantic loss making mini-cab firm with no route to profitability but once they perfected self driving car tech then magic would happen and suddenly they would be profitable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Mr. Sandpit, Gasly may or may not be starting from the pit lane:

    This one is getting awfully confusing.

    First they were changing the engine, then they weren’t, and a car that’s supposed to be in Parc Fermé is instead in dozens of pieces, which funnily enough the scrutineers are rather miffed about.

    https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files/decision-document/2020 Turkish Grand Prix - Parc Fermé issues.pdf
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).

    She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    A new video on vote fraud, this time in Michigan, from the Stand-Up Maths guy.


    Amusing, although he takes a bit of time getting to the point. He shows that the original video purporting to demonstrate fraud was simply a mathematical con trick, doubtless relying on people tending to be more convinced if they see a nice graph in a presentation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Sandpit, quite.

    It does sound like they don't know whether they're coming or going and have, quite predictably, walked into a door.

    Glad that I shifted to writing the pre-race rambles Sunday morning, as I could've easily missed the changed start time.
  • felixfelix Posts: 11,178
    IanB2 said:

    Encouraging the public to visit bars and restaurants and then closing down such venues when Covid-19 cases spike is not a “sensible way to run the epidemic”, a government scientific adviser has said.

    Prof John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), urged a long-term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic.

    Current national lockdown measures in England mean venues such as pubs, bars and restaurants have been forced to close but are expected to be allowed to reopen when the restrictions lift.

    Edmunds raised concerns about “flip-flopping” between incentives such as Eat Out To Help Out and closures.

    Of course he is right from an entirely medical perspective but the government did very much the same as the RoW is this respect - arguably getting the econo/medico balance wrong as did everywhere else. In the real world public opinion also has to be with you. FWIW I'd have allowed the restaurants more leeway than the pubs but none of these measures are risk free.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,311
    Entertaining header Alastair. An execution in 2021 seems optimistic but who knows. Maybe Carrie will take the batten
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926
    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    She fucking isn’t. Prince Philip is.
    Well quite. The First Lady role is the US derives from the President’s position as Head of State, not head of Government.

    Also whilst PMs might take work to the Downing Street flat, it is not actually supposed to be a “workplace”. Not a place to have meetings, “working” dinners/drinks or anything else.

    But regardless of that, whatever Johnson may do, Symonds can’t meet people there under pretence of “working”.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Mr. Sandpit, quite.

    It does sound like they don't know whether they're coming or going and have, quite predictably, walked into a door.

    Glad that I shifted to writing the pre-race rambles Sunday morning, as I could've easily missed the changed start time.

    The start time never changed, it was always 13:10 local.

    A good discussion going on here about Gasly. You might recognise one contributor in particular. https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=228&t=1899512&i=0
  • alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    Zoom
  • IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    She fucking isn’t. Prince Philip is.
    Prince Philip is the figurehead equivalent, not the political equivalent. And he's retired.

    Head of Government is more important than Head of State.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,294
    IanB2 said:

    Encouraging the public to visit bars and restaurants and then closing down such venues when Covid-19 cases spike is not a “sensible way to run the epidemic”, a government scientific adviser has said.

    Prof John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), urged a long-term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic.

    Current national lockdown measures in England mean venues such as pubs, bars and restaurants have been forced to close but are expected to be allowed to reopen when the restrictions lift.

    Edmunds raised concerns about “flip-flopping” between incentives such as Eat Out To Help Out and closures.

    If he doesn't like flip-flopping what does he suggest? That they stay shut, or stay open?

  • Foxy said:
    Also when it comes to "jails" in Texas it's worth realising that these are mostly people who have NOT been convicted of a crime. Over 80% of the deaths so far were by people who had not been convicted.

    I didn't know this until yesterday but prison and jail mean different things there and convicts largely go to prisons not jails.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,243

    Mr. Sandpit, I also have a £1 free bet on Gasly to win, but that was pre-qualifying.

    Mr. Quincel, I don't have an online live tracker of that.

    This season, aided by some luck, I've offered 20 bets in my blog (not including those of today), of which 9 or 10 have come off (difference because one was a bet-and-hedge where only the hedge came off).

    With £10 stakes per bet, that comes to £152 or £138.

    It is worth mentioning that I've done this for a decade or so. I've had a number of seasons in the red, although these have been outweighed by those in the green.

    If you're uncertain I'd suggest backing the Leclerc bet and not the Albon one. The Albon bet is value but still odds against. The Leclerc bet, all else being equal, really should come off.

    Good enough for me. I don't have a tracker online for my bets, and I've seen you on here for years coming across as someone who wouldn't lie about your offline records.

    Have taken the Leclerc bet, thanks again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566
    edited November 15
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).

    She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
    So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Sandpit, weird.

    Hmm. I checked the times on the official F1 website earlier in the week (because this has happened before, having checked a TV schedule only to see on Twitter the start time was different) and the time was 12.10pm then. And I'm pretty sure that was UK time.

    Regular poster there?

    Didn't read the whole thing, but was amused at the mockery of Sky F1 presenters' views of Mercedes being off the pace.

    It is striking that Hamilton, who is excellent in the wet, could only manage 6th.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,606
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, quite.

    It does sound like they don't know whether they're coming or going and have, quite predictably, walked into a door.

    Glad that I shifted to writing the pre-race rambles Sunday morning, as I could've easily missed the changed start time.

    The start time never changed, it was always 13:10 local.

    A good discussion going on here about Gasly. You might recognise one contributor in particular. https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=228&t=1899512&i=0
    The fact the race is at 10am is because Turkey shifted to Turkish Summer time all year round about 3 years ago.

    As Erodogan wanted to highlight differences between Turkey and the EU.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Quincel, np, though you might want to wait for the result before thanking me :p
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,375

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    She fucking isn’t. Prince Philip is.
    Prince Philip is the figurehead equivalent, not the political equivalent. And he's retired.

    Head of Government is more important than Head of State.
    You said it yourself. Unofficial. Philip's role is (or was) official. The Prime minister is allowed to take advice from who he wants. But asking questions about those not paid as SPADS or civil servants seems okay.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).

    She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
    So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
    I see her more as Morgan le Fay engineering an Arthur/Gawain rift.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    Zoom
    Missing the point there BigG...
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    edited November 15
    felix said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54947661

    Labour want new law to censor anti-vax fake news. As a libertarian this worries me and I doubt the oracticality frankly.

    If a parent is tricked into refusing a vaccine for their children, and then a child dies, that's not a freedom-maximising outcome. State power is necessary to balance the coercive tyranny or parental negligence.

    Only the most extremist and rabid libertarian would deny the merit of curbing some speech - shouting "fire!" in a theatre, threatening violence to achieve political goals, etc. Given that as a starting point, the question is where lying about vaccines fits into the list. FWIW, here's my rough schema:

    MOST DAMAGING
    threatening violence to achieve political outcomes ("if you vote X, I'll shoot you")
    calling for violence against individuals or groups of people ("hang the gays")
    publishing grossly false claims about the health outcomes of certain actions ("vaccines make your legs fall off")
    speech that could cause panic or hysteria (shouting "fire!" in a theatre)
    making false claims to damage a individuals reputation ("person X is a kiddy-fiddler")
    ------------- everything above this line should be subject to legal sanctions -------------
    persuading someone to harm themselves ("kill yourself")
    making false claims to damage a group's reputation ("libertarians enjoy seeing babies suffer")
    making true claims to damage an individuals reputation ("Boris Johnson has a history of infidelity")
    insulting someone ("Boris Johnson is an idiot")
    political speech ("the Conservatives are unfit for power")
    LEAST DAMAGING
  • Since the fire break ended in Wales it has gone crazy with people out and about, traffic queues ( yes and they are rare here) shops packed, as are pubs and restaurants

    It is as if ending the fire break has ended covid in many minds

    I do fear that this will not end well

    And 'Celebrity' starts tonight and the activity around Abergele and the Castle is amazing.

    I have never watched the programme but I may tonight
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    Alistair said:

    After all the talk about self driving cars....Uber getting out of that game.

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/13/uber-in-talks-to-sell-atg-self-driving-unit-to-aurora/

    Absolute scenes. Uber boosters always used the self driving research was the knight in shining armour to justify Uber's existence. Sure, they would say, they are a gigantic loss making mini-cab firm with no route to profitability but once they perfected self driving car tech then magic would happen and suddenly they would be profitable.
    The theory is correct - it’s just highly unlikely that Uber will make the breakthroughs.
    I guess now they’re hoping that their customer side infrastructure has enough value to keep them in the game. Won’t be the first tech company to fail, if it does.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    Foxy said:
    Also when it comes to "jails" in Texas it's worth realising that these are mostly people who have NOT been convicted of a crime. Over 80% of the deaths so far were by people who had not been convicted.

    I didn't know this until yesterday but prison and jail mean different things there and convicts largely go to prisons not jails.
    Is this story actually about prisoners dying? Isn’t it citizens of El Paso dying? Prisoners being used as labour to transfer the bodies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,355
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).

    She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
    So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
    It was staged and does smell a bit dodgy. That said casting Carrie on the Lady Macbeth-Nancy Regan spectrum is not entirely positive for Boris’ image as an empty, weak and easily manipulated man,
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920

    A new video on vote fraud, this time in Michigan, from the Stand-Up Maths guy.


    It's good that people are willing to put in the effort to debunk this kind of thing. But it's surprising that anyone should have put forward these data as evidence of fraud. All they really amount to is that the lead among non-party-loyalists tends to be more uniform geographically than the lead among party loyalists. That's psephologically interesting to some extent, but it's obviously no evidence at all of fraud.
  • alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    Zoom
    Missing the point there BigG...
    Maybe but I am just delighted Carrie, Allegra and other ladies managed to see off Cummings

    I do find it almost amusing but the hatred for Cummings from so many now seem to want to move on to Carrie and the ladies, often with schoolboy insults because they removed the object of their anger

    Also as bad as 2020 has been it has at least seen the end of Trump, Cummings and Corbyn
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    edited November 15
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).

    She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
    So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
    Come to think of it, Cummings could have a great future in pantomime if all else fails. All he's short of is a moustache to twirl.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,950
    I thought Johnson would be a good PM. I was wrong, although maybe it would have been different without Covid-19.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. xP, there's currently no deal to ratify. Unless Coveney knows otherwise.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,355
    Andy_JS said:

    I thought Johnson would be a good PM. I was wrong, although maybe it would have been different without Covid-19.

    No, it would have been worse without CV19. Same incompetence and manipulation, just less transparent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341

    Since the fire break ended in Wales it has gone crazy with people out and about, traffic queues ( yes and they are rare here) shops packed, as are pubs and restaurants

    It is as if ending the fire break has ended covid in many minds

    I do fear that this will not end well

    And 'Celebrity' starts tonight and the activity around Abergele and the Castle is amazing.

    I have never watched the programme but I may tonight

    Agree; doesn't bode well at all. Given the population densities, some parts of England are going to be manic the first week in December.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?

    She's what the Americans would call First Lady.

    You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
    She fucking isn’t. Prince Philip is.
    Prince Philip is the figurehead equivalent, not the political equivalent. And he's retired.

    Head of Government is more important than Head of State.
    FLOTUS is only a ceremonial role, so there is no political equivalent. And you can be a retired figurehead.
  • felixfelix Posts: 11,178
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54947661

    Labour want new law to censor anti-vax fake news. As a libertarian this worries me and I doubt the oracticality frankly.

    If a parent is tricked into refusing a vaccine for their children, and then a child dies, that's not a freedom-maximising outcome. State power is necessary to balance the coercive tyranny or parental negligence.

    Only the most extremist and rabid libertarian would deny the merit of curbing some speech - shouting "fire!" in a theatre, threatening violence to achieve political goals, etc. Given that as a starting point, the question is where lying about vaccines fits into the list. FWIW, here's my rough schema:

    MOST DAMAGING
    threatening violence to achieve political outcomes ("if you vote X, I'll shoot you")
    calling for violence against individuals or groups of people ("hang the gays")
    publishing grossly false claims about the health outcomes of certain actions ("vaccines make your legs fall off")
    speech that could cause panic or hysteria (shouting "fire!" in a theatre)
    making false claims to damage a individuals reputation ("person X is a kiddy-fiddler")
    ------------- everything above this line should be subject to legal sanctions -------------
    persuading someone to harm themselves ("kill yourself")
    making false claims to damage a group's reputation ("libertarians enjoy seeing babies suffer")
    making true claims to damage an individuals reputation ("Boris Johnson has a history of infidelity")
    insulting someone ("Boris Johnson is an idiot")
    political speech ("the Conservatives are unfit for power")
    LEAST DAMAGING
    Well doh - of course. None of which I actually suggested. Maybe making vague calls for new laws with unspecified powers should be on your pretty damaging list.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    Scott_xP said:
    I must say the logic seems irrefutable. What sense does an agreement make, with someone who is declaring that they won't honour their agreements?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,213
    Andy_JS said:

    I thought Johnson would be a good PM.

    Why?

    What example from his previous disasters as Foreign Secretary made you think that?

    Perhaps the Garden Bridge convinced you of his genius?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    Since the fire break ended in Wales it has gone crazy with people out and about, traffic queues ( yes and they are rare here) shops packed, as are pubs and restaurants

    It is as if ending the fire break has ended covid in many minds

    I do fear that this will not end well

    And 'Celebrity' starts tonight and the activity around Abergele and the Castle is amazing.

    I have never watched the programme but I may tonight

    Isn’t this the point about “flip flopping” that the Govt have never grasped. You can’t legislate for people to behave. I fear that in England people were actually being more careful before we went to the current lockdown. There were incentives in the system (because of the moving between tiers). People were actively taking decisions to restrict their social gatherings to the outdoors, despite the inclement weather, and pubs and restaurants were planning to accommodate al fresco winter socialising. Now there are no incentives and people are socialising in ways so they won’t be caught - ie in private houses. It might “work” ultimately if schools were shut but major transmission vectors have been left wide open.

    And if things are relaxed in December then people are going to take advantage, in full expectation that everything will be shut again in the new year.

    Remember younger people are not living in fear of this virus.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I thought Johnson would be a good PM. I was wrong, although maybe it would have been different without Covid-19.

    No, it would have been worse without CV19. Same incompetence and manipulation, just less transparent.
    "Covid-19 saved us from an idiot PM damaging everything else" is quite the implied statement, if that's what you mean. And you'd be right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194
    Scott_xP said:
    Coveny has it the wrong way around. The Internal Markets Bill will be dropped once a trade deal is in place. It’s the UK’s insurance policy against no deal, a backstop if you will.
  • Since the fire break ended in Wales it has gone crazy with people out and about, traffic queues ( yes and they are rare here) shops packed, as are pubs and restaurants

    It is as if ending the fire break has ended covid in many minds

    I do fear that this will not end well

    And 'Celebrity' starts tonight and the activity around Abergele and the Castle is amazing.

    I have never watched the programme but I may tonight

    This is why I was worried abouta 2 week break.

    It's long enough to do much damage to business, but short enough that if people go crazy beforehand and afterwards then I doubt there'll be much net difference in cases.
Sign In or Register to comment.