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Dropping the pilot – politicalbetting.com
Dropping the pilot – politicalbetting.com
To listen to some Conservatives, you would have thought that Carrie Symonds had slain the wicked witch of the west with a click of her shoes. Excitable munchkin MPs are cavorting with joy at the sudden fall of Dominic Cummings. These MPs, who divide equally between cowardly lions, tin men without hearts and scarecrows with no brains, all now expect a return to true Conservative government (though they disagree about what this would mean in practice).
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I'd love to see a thread from Mike on the positives and negatives of the different betting agencies. Obviously it would have to skate carefully but a betting site such as this packs a punch and we have a right to assess the market operators.
Spreadex suspended their US election market for most of the night but they have at least now settled.
Betfair seem incredibly slow to settle up on markets that are by now not in dispute.
Although I think Sunak remains favourite to succeed Johnson I'm glad I cashed out.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/15/sage-expertflip-flopping-on-covid-restrictions-unwise
I am not sure how long schools can keep going, as I have said. Too many things are against us. But equally, he probably won’t be blamed for that because few people outside schools know how much of a mess reopening has been.
So the really damaging moment will be when he has to cancel exams again. For that reason, he will probably delay doing so past the moment when realistic alternatives can be implemented (as happened last time) and then fail to be honest about the choices so he screws everything up again.
That’s a long winded way of saying he’s likely to be out at the end of August, if not before, so Alistair’s tip looks good.
It’s even more bizarre because he now wants to move to a post-results admissions service, which can’t be done without moving the start of the university year to January. Here was a golden chance to do it. And he muffed it.
I think ‘average minds’ is an exceedingly generous assessment of this government’s intellectual capacity.
That's very good.
But maybe Carrie will be the next lightning rod? Boris Johnson isn't exactly known for his lifelong devotion to partners.
Biden 1.07
Democrats 1.07
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.08
Trump ECV 210-239 1.1
Biden ECV 300-329 1.09
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01
AZ Dem 1.05
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.07
NV Dem 1.04
PA Dem 1.07
WI Dem 1.08
(North Carolina was settled yesterday)
But they aren't settling 306 ECVs yet unlike Spreadex. Really poor.
Labour want new law to censor anti-vax fake news. As a libertarian this worries me and I doubt the oracticality frankly.
Time to start pondering the race. No idea if it'll be wet or not... the forecast from the BBC was worthless for qualifying. If I hadn't checked out a race report for P3 I would've assumed qualifying would be dry.
But if anything, I would say it’s a sign of how venal university managers are, rather than how stupid.
Another question is what mischief will Cummings get up to now?
Anyway, F1 ramble will be up shortly, with literally two tips.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aokNwKx7gM8
Betting PostF1: backed Leclerc to top group 2 (Ferraris and Alfa Romeos) at 2.45, and Albon, each way, to win at 21 (third the odds top 2).
I generally have doubts about Albon. And those remain. But he's looked good this weekend and, in the dry, his car should be able to get past the Racing Points without difficulty (I hope). Similarly, in the dry, Leclerc should have no problem surpassing his team mate and the Alfas.
But it could clearly be a chaotic race and the slippery surface means pretty much anything could happen. Should be entertaining.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/turkey-pre-race-2020.html
They still havent settled my US election bet but I can wait.
No obvious bets so far stand out, Bottas to win at 17.5 maybe, or Russell for points at 5.5,
I’ll take another look in a couple of hours, once we’ve seen the weather a little more closely.
As for the rest, he will write tens of thousands of words in blogposts about how brilliant he is and how it’s all the fault of
the lizard peoplethe blob that everything he tried was a complete disaster. And everyone will either laugh at him or ignore him.Anti-democracy protests in America.
Hmmm.
https://twitter.com/scoutfinchreads/status/1327707494521606144
https://twitter.com/AmazonHelp/status/1327635102302613505
Prof John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), urged a long-term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic.
Current national lockdown measures in England mean venues such as pubs, bars and restaurants have been forced to close but are expected to be allowed to reopen when the restrictions lift.
Edmunds raised concerns about “flip-flopping” between incentives such as Eat Out To Help Out and closures.
You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
Don’t they have an “Escalate this quickly to a senior UK-based PR person” process for their weekend social media team?
Mr. Quincel, I don't have an online live tracker of that.
This season, aided by some luck, I've offered 20 bets in my blog (not including those of today), of which 9 or 10 have come off (difference because one was a bet-and-hedge where only the hedge came off).
With £10 stakes per bet, that comes to £152 or £138.
It is worth mentioning that I've done this for a decade or so. I've had a number of seasons in the red, although these have been outweighed by those in the green.
If you're uncertain I'd suggest backing the Leclerc bet and not the Albon one. The Albon bet is value but still odds against. The Leclerc bet, all else being equal, really should come off.
https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1327880271732072458
First they were changing the engine, then they weren’t, and a car that’s supposed to be in Parc Fermé is instead in dozens of pieces, which funnily enough the scrutineers are rather miffed about.
https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files/decision-document/2020 Turkish Grand Prix - Parc Fermé issues.pdf
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1327481868200124416?s=19
She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
It does sound like they don't know whether they're coming or going and have, quite predictably, walked into a door.
Glad that I shifted to writing the pre-race rambles Sunday morning, as I could've easily missed the changed start time.
Also whilst PMs might take work to the Downing Street flat, it is not actually supposed to be a “workplace”. Not a place to have meetings, “working” dinners/drinks or anything else.
But regardless of that, whatever Johnson may do, Symonds can’t meet people there under pretence of “working”.
A good discussion going on here about Gasly. You might recognise one contributor in particular. https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=228&t=1899512&i=0
Head of Government is more important than Head of State.
https://twitter.com/JodiDoering/status/1327771329555292162
I didn't know this until yesterday but prison and jail mean different things there and convicts largely go to prisons not jails.
Have taken the Leclerc bet, thanks again.
Hmm. I checked the times on the official F1 website earlier in the week (because this has happened before, having checked a TV schedule only to see on Twitter the start time was different) and the time was 12.10pm then. And I'm pretty sure that was UK time.
Regular poster there?
Didn't read the whole thing, but was amused at the mockery of Sky F1 presenters' views of Mercedes being off the pace.
It is striking that Hamilton, who is excellent in the wet, could only manage 6th.
As Erodogan wanted to highlight differences between Turkey and the EU.
It's demented to just enter a lockdown and stay there forever until there's a vaccine. There's more than one disease in the world, and people need money for luxuries like food and rent. And, sooner or later, all this furlough largesse has to be paid back.
Only the most extremist and rabid libertarian would deny the merit of curbing some speech - shouting "fire!" in a theatre, threatening violence to achieve political goals, etc. Given that as a starting point, the question is where lying about vaccines fits into the list. FWIW, here's my rough schema:
MOST DAMAGING
threatening violence to achieve political outcomes ("if you vote X, I'll shoot you")
calling for violence against individuals or groups of people ("hang the gays")
publishing grossly false claims about the health outcomes of certain actions ("vaccines make your legs fall off")
speech that could cause panic or hysteria (shouting "fire!" in a theatre)
making false claims to damage a individuals reputation ("person X is a kiddy-fiddler")
------------- everything above this line should be subject to legal sanctions -------------
persuading someone to harm themselves ("kill yourself")
making false claims to damage a group's reputation ("libertarians enjoy seeing babies suffer")
making true claims to damage an individuals reputation ("Boris Johnson has a history of infidelity")
insulting someone ("Boris Johnson is an idiot")
political speech ("the Conservatives are unfit for power")
LEAST DAMAGING
It is as if ending the fire break has ended covid in many minds
I do fear that this will not end well
And 'Celebrity' starts tonight and the activity around Abergele and the Castle is amazing.
I have never watched the programme but I may tonight
I guess now they’re hoping that their customer side infrastructure has enough value to keep them in the game. Won’t be the first tech company to fail, if it does.
I do find it almost amusing but the hatred for Cummings from so many now seem to want to move on to Carrie and the ladies, often with schoolboy insults because they removed the object of their anger
Also as bad as 2020 has been it has at least seen the end of Trump, Cummings and Corbyn
What example from his previous disasters as Foreign Secretary made you think that?
Perhaps the Garden Bridge convinced you of his genius?
And if things are relaxed in December then people are going to take advantage, in full expectation that everything will be shut again in the new year.
Remember younger people are not living in fear of this virus.
It's long enough to do much damage to business, but short enough that if people go crazy beforehand and afterwards then I doubt there'll be much net difference in cases.