Its soooo unfair might just work as a line for opinion polling but will look terrible by the next election. The government leaders demanded responsibility for the process and overthrew 2 of their own parties PMs to get it. Deal with it.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
The Express will blame the EU, in banner headlines. What the Mail will do is somewhat harder to predict, ATM!
The Express has a circulation of about 289,000, barely more than The Star.
That is a very good point well made. I find it infuriating as a functionary to be told officially things like no blame culture, we want to hear the truth no matter what, we want to know what you think etc, when actions demonstrate that's crap.
Unfortunately senior functionaries dont want to hear it just as much as politicians.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
OK then. What compromises from its current position and red lines would you be happy with the UK making? Don't worry- this isn't about revealing the UK's negotiating secrets. What would you personally be chilled about?
LPF - Non regression, independent arbitration, mutually agreed principles.
Fish - I personally don't care, though I understand and respect why others do I don't personally.
Its soooo unfair might just work as a line for opinion polling but will look terrible by the next election. The government leaders demanded responsibility for the process and overthrew 2 of their own parties PMs to get it. Deal with it.
You are wasting your time putting the word 'responsibility' in the same sentence as reference to this shower of third raters and charlatans.
I wonder what Mrs Dom thinks of it all.She has after all, stayed married to him for 9 years.
That is part of the political theatre. These are all friends from The Spectator. We have outsourced our politics to an oversexed and well lubricated Tory party fanzine's editorial board.
When I was in the VIth Form, back in the 50's the Head encouraged us to read the Spectator, at a cut rate, so we could 'properly' participate in his weekly Current Affairs' lesson. Tried it for a while, then switched to the New Statesman
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
The Express will blame the EU, in banner headlines. What the Mail will do is somewhat harder to predict, ATM!
The Express has a circulation of about 289,000, barely more than The Star.
I think it has a bit more of an outsize influence than that online, though. I often see it quoted and linked to on facebook, alongside outlets like Breitbart.
A lot of things are looking quite worrying this morning.
The chances of a no-deal accident arising out of miscommunication are really quite high now, because the new no.10 team is clearly desperate to play up Johnson's Brexiter credentials to his core constituency, after the allegations of softness central to the Cummings/Symonds debacle. There's very little time left, and very little time for the EU side to process how much of this is posturing, and recalibrate their own stance accordingly.
"Boris Johnson remains the “hardest in the room” in his unwillingness to budge to secure a Brexit deal, government insiders said this weekend, amid warnings that just days remain to finalise an agreement.
However, sources familiar with the government’s deliberations said that, at repeated meetings, it had been the prime minister himself who had been the most hardline in wanting to hold out for better terms. They said the departure of Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s senior adviser, and Lee Cain, his communications chief, would not change the fact that Johnson himself remained determined and hard to read."
'Hold out for better terms'
Dear oh dear. This whole 'the EU will blink first' attitude needs to go. It isn't likely to happen. Either we accept their terms or get ready for no deal.
The idea the EU never blinks or never shifts position has persisted throughout this issue for years even though it goes against the whole principle of negotiation and they themselves would claim compromise has occuured. So I think the attitude of an utterly immovable EU needs to stop being made as it's just silly, like when we were told and I believed theyd never make more changes to the deal then did.
So it's more is there any incentive for them to blink now, other than the general wish to avoid no deal, in response to the specific situation. And there I dont see how it's in their interests, as it's one think for a deal to fail as both sides are stubborn, the EU might get internal blowback, and another where it's around the other side not dropping a promise to break the last agreement before they sign. It's probably not worth giving anything new last minute when it looks like its extracted from such a threat.
The EU is in a stronger position with No Deal, because No Deal is not an end state, but rather allows negotiations to restart with a new baseline, and the EU is in a stronger position on that baseline.
Meanwhile, there has been a massive new Trade Deal agreed in the Western Pacific.2.2 billion people in the strongest economies in the world, quite a powerf
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
She's what the Americans would call First Lady.
You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).
She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
The suspicion has to be there. Though it would show some personal growth from Cummings as he allowed himself to be humiliated in service to the cause.
No, I think it suited Cummings. He doesn't do anything for other people, just himself, and that won't change at his age.
He wants people to know that he is not part of what happens next. You don't need to be a superforecaster to know why a rat leaves a sinking ship. The bilges are filling up with seawater...
I wonder what Mrs Dom thinks of it all.She has after all, stayed married to him for 9 years.
That is part of the political theatre. These are all friends from The Spectator. We have outsourced our politics to an oversexed and well lubricated Tory party fanzine's editorial board.
I'm a fan of the Spectator but this aspect is a worry. Given the web of relationships it is an unavoidable conclusion that their writers will be revealing infinitely less than they know, and will have a web of motives you can only speculate on. Which isn't how readers understand their contract with journalists.
So, take for example really specifically, James Forsyth's article in the Times/ST dated 13 November and headlined 'No-deal Brexit would be bad for the west'. Is this his personal opinion about something or a warm up on behalf of his wife Allegra Stratton to prepare us for a climb down?
What has being woke got to do with climate change? Or has woke been redefined to just mean anything that elderly rural reactionaries get themselves into a lather about?
Woke is becoming like "politically correct", and in losing its specificity. That's very silly for the Right to do.
It's just right wing virtue signalling. Or whatever the equivalent is for people who aren't virtuous.
What has being woke got to do with climate change? Or has woke been redefined to just mean anything that elderly rural reactionaries get themselves into a lather about?
Woke is becoming like "politically correct", and in losing its specificity. That's very silly for the Right to do.
It's just right wing virtue signalling. Or whatever the equivalent is for people who aren't virtuous.
People have different perceptions of virtues, so virtue signalling can apt across the spectrum, it's why I like it as a non partisan term. Same with snowflake.
I prefer snowflake to virtue signalling personally. "Snowflake" is usually used more accurately. "Virtue signalling" tends to be used rhetorically and frequently deflects from the real issues. It is used to close down a debate more often than to advance it.
I do wonder if free speech could be the new political dividing line amongst the next generation - certainly those in universities. It might be the way for the right to make themselves relevant.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
OK then. What compromises from its current position and red lines would you be happy with the UK making? Don't worry- this isn't about revealing the UK's negotiating secrets. What would you personally be chilled about?
LPF - Non regression, independent arbitration, mutually agreed principles.
Fish - I personally don't care, though I understand and respect why others do I don't personally.
You don`t care if foreign fishing boats enter our waters illegally? I thought you were all for policing this with the Navy?
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
She's what the Americans would call First Lady.
You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).
She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
The suspicion has to be there. Though it would show some personal growth from Cummings as he allowed himself to be humiliated in service to the cause.
No, I think it suited Cummings. He doesn't do anything for other people, just himself, and that won't change at his age.
He wants people to know that he is not part of what happens next. You don't need to be a superforecaster to know why a rat leaves a sinking ship. The bilges are filling up with seawater...
As an aside, are we sure Carrie has no official role? Didn't Samantha Cameron have at least one SpAd? There was a bit of a fuss when she picked up a gong in the resignation honours list. Did SamCam set a precedent there?
The picture of Cummings in the doorway might have been set up but aiui there are photographers in Downing Street all the time so just pausing at the open door for a few seconds till the long lenses swung in his direction would have been enough.
And is Cummings departure really political or might it be personal after all? I've not read all the reports but certainly one factor was Boris's anger about the Princess Nut Nut nickname. There is a superficially similar story (in iirc the Purnell biography) of Boris intervening to block the appointment of a poet who had years earlier suggested Boris's children had silly names. Isn't it more likely Boris cut up about insults to the mother of his new son than that a political rift developed just hours after he'd tried to promote Cain?
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
It's a very good piece, albeit with several unneecssary diversions on post imperial nostalgia adjacent issues, which, as with most cases, says more about the author than widely held views in the country.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
A lot of things are looking quite worrying this morning.
The chances of a no-deal accident arising out of miscommunication are really quite high now, because the new no.10 team is clearly desperate to play up Johnson's Brexiter credentials to his core constituency, after the allegations of softness central to the Cummings/Symonds debacle. There's very little time left, and very little time for the EU side to process how much of this is posturing, and recalibrate their own stance accordingly.
"Boris Johnson remains the “hardest in the room” in his unwillingness to budge to secure a Brexit deal, government insiders said this weekend, amid warnings that just days remain to finalise an agreement.
However, sources familiar with the government’s deliberations said that, at repeated meetings, it had been the prime minister himself who had been the most hardline in wanting to hold out for better terms. They said the departure of Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s senior adviser, and Lee Cain, his communications chief, would not change the fact that Johnson himself remained determined and hard to read."
'Hold out for better terms'
Dear oh dear. This whole 'the EU will blink first' attitude needs to go. It isn't likely to happen. Either we accept their terms or get ready for no deal.
The idea the EU never blinks or never shifts position has persisted throughout this issue for years even though it goes against the whole principle of negotiation and they themselves would claim compromise has occuured. So I think the attitude of an utterly immovable EU needs to stop being made as it's just silly, like when we were told and I believed theyd never make more changes to the deal then did.
So it's more is there any incentive for them to blink now, other than the general wish to avoid no deal, in response to the specific situation. And there I dont see how it's in their interests, as it's one think for a deal to fail as both sides are stubborn, the EU might get internal blowback, and another where it's around the other side not dropping a promise to break the last agreement before they sign. It's probably not worth giving anything new last minute when it looks like its extracted from such a threat.
The EU is in a stronger position with No Deal, because No Deal is not an end state, but rather allows negotiations to restart with a new baseline, and the EU is in a stronger position on that baseline.
Meanwhile, there has been a massive new Trade Deal agreed in the Western Pacific.2.2 billion people in the strongest economies in the world, quite a powerf
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
She's what the Americans would call First Lady.
You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).
She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
The suspicion has to be there. Though it would show some personal growth from Cummings as he allowed himself to be humiliated in service to the cause.
No, I think it suited Cummings. He doesn't do anything for other people, just himself, and that won't change at his age.
He wants people to know that he is not part of what happens next. You don't need to be a superforecaster to know why a rat leaves a sinking ship. The bilges are filling up with seawater...
I wonder what Mrs Dom thinks of it all.She has after all, stayed married to him for 9 years.
That is part of the political theatre. These are all friends from The Spectator. We have outsourced our politics to an oversexed and well lubricated Tory party fanzine's editorial board.
If we get through no deal to the other side then in new negotiations the EU will be in a much weaker position and we will be in the much stronger position. It's part of why I'm not worried and think it could be a good idea as such a reset will be to our long term advantage.
There are three relevant factors here and all play to the UK's advantage if we no deal.
Disruption: Currently people are worried about disruption and want to avoid it. If there's no deal it will be too late and the EU will have lost that carrot. We will have already had to face the consequences of no deal and by the time negotiations are done they will be behind us.
Fish: Currently the EU fishermen take our fish and don't want to lose that. If there's no deal they will and the fishermen will have to adapt. Again actualised loss results in a new situation.
LPF: Currently we are tied in to EU rules. No deal and those ties are broken.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
Unfortunately your happiness is not the relevant metric.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
She's what the Americans would call First Lady.
You don't think that's an unofficial role at least?
No. And she wouldn’t even be First Lady in the US (which IS an official role).
She is not paid by the Government. She does not get given a budget. She does no work for the Government. She is accountable to nobody. Her “role” such as it is, is limited entirely to whispering in Johnson’s ear. Which she doesn’t need “friends round” to achieve.
So far as I can see the fracas in the offices at Downing st has little to do with either the politics of Brexit or anything else. It seems to be not just BoZo's violin that got smashed in this symbolic emasculation. The fairytale princess rescuing the Sultan from his evil Grand Vizier is pure theatre. The photographs of Cummings leaving with his box via the front door in a photoshoot were well trailed and clearly with his approval.
The suspicion has to be there. Though it would show some personal growth from Cummings as he allowed himself to be humiliated in service to the cause.
No, I think it suited Cummings. He doesn't do anything for other people, just himself, and that won't change at his age.
He wants people to know that he is not part of what happens next. You don't need to be a superforecaster to know why a rat leaves a sinking ship. The bilges are filling up with seawater...
As an aside, are we sure Carrie has no official role? Didn't Samantha Cameron have at least one SpAd? There was a bit of a fuss when she picked up a gong in the resignation honours list. Did SamCam set a precedent there?
The picture of Cummings in the doorway might have been set up but aiui there are photographers in Downing Street all the time so just pausing at the open door for a few seconds till the long lenses swung in his direction would have been enough.
And is Cummings departure really political or might it be personal after all? I've not read all the reports but certainly one factor was Boris's anger about the Princess Nut Nut nickname. There is a superficially similar story (in iirc the Purnell biography) of Boris intervening to block the appointment of a poet who had years earlier suggested Boris's children had silly names. Isn't it more likely Boris cut up about insults to the mother of his new son than that a political rift developed just hours after he'd tried to promote Cain?
There was no pausing on the doorstep. More of a slinking off into the dark.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
"Marmite sales halted by innovative (traffic) jam"
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
If you're wrong and there is a major crisis, will you give some pause to the thought that you were a bit casual in your attitude to the whole thing?
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
OK then. What compromises from its current position and red lines would you be happy with the UK making? Don't worry- this isn't about revealing the UK's negotiating secrets. What would you personally be chilled about?
LPF - Non regression, independent arbitration, mutually agreed principles.
Fish - I personally don't care, though I understand and respect why others do I don't personally.
You don`t care if foreign fishing boats enter our waters illegally? I thought you were all for policing this with the Navy?
I am. The question was regarding compromises not illegal fishing.
If a compromise is reached over fish then I'm not going to be bothered one way or another. Though I respect others have other opinions and if one isn't reached due to fish I will understand it.
If a compromise isn't reached then of course anyone breaking the law and attempting to steal from us should face the consequences of doing so.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
Given infection and new case rates across the whole of the US, Thanksgiving, and the associated travelling, is going to be such a high risk event this year.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
The fact it is not a natural border and therefore incredibly difficult to police adds to the problem.
My impression is that the younger generation on the island of Ireland have little emotional attachment to the two-State situation and would be perfectly happy with a merger if the circumstances were right. Brexit has encouraged those circumstances, one of its few tangible benefits imo.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
Supposing this has happened - I have no idea. But the defence could be this. Boris is WFH. Others who come to the flat do so because they are working. This is legal in principle. Carrie interacts at a social distance because she is part of the same household as Boris.
Or maybe it's all informal baby care.
She is allegedly meeting people when he's not there.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
I can see some minor issues with the latter option.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
I don’t think the queues will be that bad. Logistics dispatchers are not daft. They simply won't despatch in the first place.
I expect that No Deal Brexit would be a damp squib initially. It will take some weeks and months for the impact to hit.
Perhaps the biggest hit will be to our negotiating power. Having ripped out the "Oven Ready" Deals Irish protocol, specifically written for the No Deal situation, no diplomat in the world will take our word as meaningful. All future deals will be cash up front.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
Just because you claim actual experts are claiming distress doesn't make it true.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
I can see some minor issues with the latter option.
ISTR there have been a few unfortunate kerfuffles with the former down the years.
When Boris' opponents spin this narrative, they never seem to understand how utterly damning it is of their own capabilities. The supposedly talentless ditherer Boris has humiliated and destroyed them electorally again and again and again - can you imagine what he could have achieved if he were gifted and driven?
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
The dose of reality needed on a rainy Sunday.
No just Project Fear bullshit that sets the bar so low it will be cleared with ease.
It is hyperbolic nonsense that isn't going to happen.
What has being woke got to do with climate change? Or has woke been redefined to just mean anything that elderly rural reactionaries get themselves into a lather about?
Mrs T, were she with us, would certainly be very surprised to find that taking action on the ozone layer (which I think one of her greatest achievcements) made her in any way woke, or PC as it was called then (I think!).
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
I don’t think the queues will be that bad. Logistics dispatchers are not daft. They simply won't despatch in the first place.
I expect that No Deal Brexit would be a damp squib initially. It will take some weeks and months for the impact to hit.
Perhaps the biggest hit will be to our negotiating power. Having ripped out the "Oven Ready" Deals Irish protocol, specifically written for the No Deal situation, no diplomat in the world will take our word as meaningful. All future deals will be cash up front.
I think I agree. We won't see the queues at Dover immediately, but if logistics despatchers just don't despatch doesn't that mean that the anticipated shortages will show up in the supply chain anyway?
Given infection and new case rates across the whole of the US, Thanksgiving, and the associated travelling, is going to be such a high risk event this year.
Yes, and in America Thanksgiving is the bigger family occasion. It is a 4 day holiday weekend, while Christmas is just a day off. That is a particularly big deal in America where holiday entitlements are much less than in Europe, often just 2 weeks.
Indeed one of the nice things about Thanksgiving is that it is about friends, family and community rather than present giving and consumerism.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
Ah yes, you're right. Thanks for the memory jog.
That was the model used for Diana, though, AIUI. And, again AIUI, the Queen Mother was NOT AMUSED!
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
When Boris' opponents spin this narrative, they never seem to understand how utterly damning it is of their own capabilities. The supposedly talentless ditherer Boris has humiliated and destroyed them electorally again and again and again - can you imagine what he could have achieved if he were gifted and driven?
It's a fair point, though doesn't disguise his own shortcomings even if electorally successful.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
The dose of reality needed on a rainy Sunday.
No just Project Fear bullshit that sets the bar so low it will be cleared with ease.
It is hyperbolic nonsense that isn't going to happen.
Absurd - look at the effect even Brexit stockpiling is already contributing at Felixstowe, or what's already predicted by several Kent residents for the lorry toilet on road networks on the other side. So much of this unknowable, and so considering the stakes a cavalier attitude to this kind of logistical risk is absolute madness.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
I can see some minor issues with the latter option.
Getting a very strong Théoden/Wormtongue vibe from this. Trouble is, there is no Gandalf.
That's exactly how he strikes you. But then you ask yourself is it possible that someone like that could get through all the hoops that would take them to the top? And the answer is maybe. It's not like the Tory Party is crammed full of original thinkers. Being a 'Leaver' with a higher IQ than Peter Bone looks like it's enough.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
Wasn't that what they called the one for the Queen Mother too? And, IIRC, from one of the docudrama's it was picked up for Diana's funeral to the horror of said Queen Mum.
That was 'Tay Bridge.'
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
Yes, but also the inspiration of the worlds greatest Scottish Epic poem:
The Tay Bridge Disaster by William McGonagal
Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silv’ry Tay! Alas! I am very sorry to say That ninety lives have been taken away On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
’Twas about seven o’clock at night, And the wind it blew with all its might, And the rain came pouring down, And the dark clouds seem’d to frown, And the Demon of the air seem’d to say- “I’ll blow down the Bridge of Tay.”
When the train left Edinburgh The passengers’ hearts were light and felt no sorrow, But Boreas blew a terrific gale, Which made their hearts for to quail, And many of the passengers with fear did say- “I hope God will send us safe across the Bridge of Tay.”
But when the train came near to Wormit Bay, Boreas he did loud and angry bray, And shook the central girders of the Bridge of Tay On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
So the train sped on with all its might, And Bonnie Dundee soon hove in sight, And the passengers’ hearts felt light, Thinking they would enjoy themselves on the New Year, With their friends at home they lov’d most dear, And wish them all a happy New Year.
So the train mov’d slowly along the Bridge of Tay, Until it was about midway, Then the central girders with a crash gave way, And down went the train and passengers into the Tay! The Storm Fiend did loudly bray, Because ninety lives had been taken away, On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
(Continues in much the same style for quite some time...)
That is a very good point well made. I find it infuriating as a functionary to be told officially things like no blame culture, we want to hear the truth no matter what, we want to know what you think etc, when actions demonstrate that's crap.
Unfortunately senior functionaries dont want to hear it just as much as politicians.
That's why consultants are so popular with top management. Their junior and middle management will tell them what's wrong, but they won't accept it from that source, so they hire expensive consultants to tell them exactly the same thing.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Operation London Bridge. All planned out in meticulous detail, and regularly rehearsed.
One thing that piece did not foresee was the Commonwealth Head issue being sorted prior the Queen's death.
Worth remembering this bit too, as people will claim it 'notable' if some people express irritation when it will be normal.
The population will slide between sadness and irritability. In 2002, 130 people complained to the BBC about its insensitive coverage of the Queen Mother’s death; another 1,500 complained that Casualty was moved to BBC2.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
Or if it does happen it will be because France wanted it, rather in the way we lost the Americas...
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
When Boris' opponents spin this narrative, they never seem to understand how utterly damning it is of their own capabilities. The supposedly talentless ditherer Boris has humiliated and destroyed them electorally again and again and again - can you imagine what he could have achieved if he were gifted and driven?
I think it's right to admit that there was no stand-out Party Leader from 2016 onward. Apart from Nicola Sturgeon.
And not a lot in the 10 years before that, TBH. Although I think Ed Miliband got the job too early and under-performed. Charles Kennedy's alcoholism was a tragedy, and not just for himself. He would now only be in his v. early 60's.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
Supposing this has happened - I have no idea. But the defence could be this. Boris is WFH. Others who come to the flat do so because they are working. This is legal in principle. Carrie interacts at a social distance because she is part of the same household as Boris.
Or maybe it's all informal baby care.
She is allegedly meeting people when he's not there.
If it's work not socialising then what's the issue?
And all the descriptions so far are work related issues.
When Boris' opponents spin this narrative, they never seem to understand how utterly damning it is of their own capabilities. The supposedly talentless ditherer Boris has humiliated and destroyed them electorally again and again and again - can you imagine what he could have achieved if he were gifted and driven?
Johnson is gifted and driven when it comes to winning elections. That is what makes him tick.
The guy who services my central heating boiler is gifted and driven when it comes to heating engineering. I wouldn't want him performing brain surgery.
We all have talents and shortcomings. Johnson's talent is electioneering, his shortcoming is "doing" government.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
80/20 in favour of a deal. But it will be a crap one for Britain no matter what Johnson says.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
Or just do a deal
A deal involves compromises.
Or do you think a deal can be done without compromises?
Compromise has to come from both sides
Or one side does something the other side explicits stares is a red line - say by voting for the internal market bill in its original form.. At which point the EU will be able to say the Tories created the mess and it will be very hard to avoid the Government having full ownership of the mess No Deal will create
The blame game in a no deal falls on the shoulders of the negotiators on both sides, but who the public blame and to what an extent at this moment is hard to predict
Blame can be attached to both sides without being equally attached.
Who the public will blame will depend first on tribalism and second on how many people are impacted or cannot avoid seeing the impact.
Given party support about half of the public will blame the government primarily, and so if the impact is sizable and a fair chunk of what would normally be government backing people turn, you're looking at a big number.
The trouble is that blaming the EU for the chaos of no deal would be to implicitly acknowledge reliance on the EU. I thought Brexiteers believed in self-reliance, owning your own s*** as it were. I don't hold a candle for isolationism but I could respect that attitude to a degree.
I really don't understand the opposition to a border both in Ireland and in the Irish Sea. Isn't having a border the fundamental basis of being an independent nation?
The point is where the border is.
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The real problem is having a border on the island of Ireland at all. In an age where we no longer live in the religious divides of the 17th century it serves no purpose. The sooner there is a referendum the better. Essentially the options are a single Ireland independent from Britain or a single Ireland as part of Britain. I am equally happy with both.
Unfortunately your happiness is not the relevant metric.
Oh I don't know. To Aristotle happiness or eudaimomia is the top goal of every person. 'Relevant metric' might be lost on him however. Just wishing happiness on a few million who live on the island of Ireland as well. Happy to help.
That is a very good point well made. I find it infuriating as a functionary to be told officially things like no blame culture, we want to hear the truth no matter what, we want to know what you think etc, when actions demonstrate that's crap.
Unfortunately senior functionaries dont want to hear it just as much as politicians.
That's why consultants are so popular with top management. Their junior and middle management will tell them what's wrong, but they won't accept it from that source, so they hire expensive consultants to tell them exactly the same thing.
This was one of my earliest observations on encountering Management Consultants. They would take up huge amounts of my time enquiring how I did my job, what the problems were, what needed to change etc. They would then write this up, charging colossal amounts for doing so, and present it to the Board along with the recommendations.
I am sure I am not the only one to have wondered why the Board didn't simply ask me direct.
A lot of things are looking quite worrying this morning. The chances of a no-deal accident arising out of miscommunication are really quite high now, because the new no.10 team is clearly desperate to play up Johnson's Brexiter credentials to his core constituency, after the allegations of softness in the Cummings/Symonds debacle. There's very little time left, and very little time for the EU side to process how much of this is posturing, and recalibrate their own stance accordingly.
"However, sources familiar with the government’s deliberations said that, at repeated meetings, it had been the prime minister himself who had been the most hardline in wanting to hold out for better terms. They said the departure of Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s senior adviser, and Lee Cain, his communications chief, would not change the fact that Johnson himself remained determined and hard to read."
Nothing has changed in a year, the exact same arguments have been made about the sides accidentally falling into no deal even if they actually want one.
It's very important and may well be true but it's so utterly tiresome as theyd all say the same things if it weren't true.
The difference is that time's up.
Wrt the EU in terms of past experience we are nowhere near the end game.
I think the Johnson playbook will be to let the talks deadline expire to get all the Brexiteers on side thinking he is going for No Deal, then agree to an extension and claim victory over the EU.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
I wonder what you will be saying in January when, even if a deal is struck, the UK will be facing the greatest domestic crisis since the general strike.
Without a wholesale reset of deadlines and the recognition of the scale of the trade crisis that will begin on Jan 1, the Tory government will be torn apart and Johnson won´t be out in a year, he will be out in 2-3 months.
The Tsunami is coming, the Farage Garage system, even if it exceeds expectations, will make operation Stack look like your local NCP.
The departure of Cummings is not the end of the crisis, it is the beginning.
If that happens I'd be surprised. I'm not expecting a major crisis.
A bit of minor disruption that people get over and adapt to.
Well, I´m sure the global economy is listening to your expertise. Meanwhile actual experts, such as UK exporters and the haulage industry do not share your complacency. In fact they are sending up major distress rockets right now.
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
The dose of reality needed on a rainy Sunday.
No just Project Fear bullshit that sets the bar so low it will be cleared with ease.
It is hyperbolic nonsense that isn't going to happen.
Absurd - look at the effect even Brexit stockpiling is already contributing at Felixstowe, or what's already predicted by several Kent residents for the lorry toilet on road networks on the other side. So much of this unknowable, and so considering the stakes a cavalier attitude to this kind of logistical risk is absolute madness.
I've said I expect there to be some disruption but for the systems to cope overall (which incidentally is what I've seen the actual experts rather than keyboard warriors say themselves)
How does "it is unknowable" if that is your argument cut against what I've said? And surely it even more so cuts against Cicero's doommongering certainty of catastrophic systemic failure?
When Boris' opponents spin this narrative, they never seem to understand how utterly damning it is of their own capabilities. The supposedly talentless ditherer Boris has humiliated and destroyed them electorally again and again and again - can you imagine what he could have achieved if he were gifted and driven?
I absolutely agree - you can only beat what's in front of you. Look at TBC last night and for once I didn't pop up saying there's value in the 9s about Kell Brook.
But that said, take out the raging anti-semite as opponent and I'm none too sure Boris would have done as well. We'll never know, obvs.
Now I know he is a nice chap and its sad for his family, friends and mildly sad for his former viewers and fans but is the death of Des O Connor (88 years old and a TV entertainer) really worthy of BBC 's dramatic breaking news banner ? Another example of how the BBC is losing the plot as a serious newscaster and how its turnign its website into something akin to Hello magazine. Does anyone under 45 know who is his anyway?
Just imagine what's planned for when QE2 goes. In Jeremy Paxman's autobiography he says that there used to be a protocol in the event of it happening during Newsnight. They'd put on a holding video or something whilst he'd rush off to get changed into a suit with a black tie so that he could come back and announce the news wearing appropriate attire
Putting on a jacket and clip-on black tie would take 10 seconds, or 30 at most. He could be naked from the waist down and no-one would know.
ETA and his female replacements would not need the tie.
Has anyone asked the question as to how Carrie Symonds, who has no official (or unofficial come to that) role in the Government is able to meet other people than Johnson in the flat in Downing Street without being in breach of Covid laws under the current lockdown?
Supposing this has happened - I have no idea. But the defence could be this. Boris is WFH. Others who come to the flat do so because they are working. This is legal in principle. Carrie interacts at a social distance because she is part of the same household as Boris.
Or maybe it's all informal baby care.
She is allegedly meeting people when he's not there.
If it's work not socialising then what's the issue?
And all the descriptions so far are work related issues.
Because, as i said earlier, she does not work for the Government. Officially or (as if it matters) unofficially. So she can't claim to be meeting Government officials for work purposes.
Just because she may have opinions over what happens in the Government, that doesn't give her the right to meet people to discuss them. That's not "work".
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
That is a very good point well made. I find it infuriating as a functionary to be told officially things like no blame culture, we want to hear the truth no matter what, we want to know what you think etc, when actions demonstrate that's crap.
Unfortunately senior functionaries dont want to hear it just as much as politicians.
That's why consultants are so popular with top management. Their junior and middle management will tell them what's wrong, but they won't accept it from that source, so they hire expensive consultants to tell them exactly the same thing.
This was one of my earliest observations on encountering Management Consultants. They would take up huge amounts of my time enquiring how I did my job, what the problems were, what needed to change etc. They would then write this up, charging colossal amounts for doing so, and present it to the Board along with the recommendations.
I am sure I am not the only one to have wondered why the Board didn't simply ask me direct.
So that they have the emotional distance to be able to fire you or reorg you if that is necessary. There is no other reason.
That is a very good point well made. I find it infuriating as a functionary to be told officially things like no blame culture, we want to hear the truth no matter what, we want to know what you think etc, when actions demonstrate that's crap.
Unfortunately senior functionaries dont want to hear it just as much as politicians.
That's why consultants are so popular with top management. Their junior and middle management will tell them what's wrong, but they won't accept it from that source, so they hire expensive consultants to tell them exactly the same thing.
This was one of my earliest observations on encountering Management Consultants. They would take up huge amounts of my time enquiring how I did my job, what the problems were, what needed to change etc. They would then write this up, charging colossal amounts for doing so, and present it to the Board along with the recommendations.
I am sure I am not the only one to have wondered why the Board didn't simply ask me direct.
It's also very important to understand that elite management consultancy, particularly top-four management consultancy, has played a major role in the culture of runaway rewards at the highest levels. The rationalising momentum is often focused on supposedly rare skills and processes at the highest level.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
80/20 in favour of a deal. But it will be a crap one for Britain no matter what Johnson says.
I agree with your odds but not your value judgement.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
80/20 in favour of a deal. But it will be a crap one for Britain no matter what Johnson says.
Deal, including sub deals and/or further delay from 1st Jan before deal is certain - 98% chance.
Actually defining what would count as deal and what would not would be tricky, though I imagine we'll sort of know. A bleak crash out without qualification could not be managed and won't happen.
Boris has a slim chance of hanging on till at least 2024 if he does a deal (slim because he loses the Tory head bangers) but no chance at all if he doesn't (because he loses everyone else).
Follow what's best for Boris's chances and you will be right.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
80/20 in favour of a deal. But it will be a crap one for Britain no matter what Johnson says.
I agree with your odds but not your value judgement.
Hope you are right. Unlike some who voted remain, I really mean that.
I had high hopes that the government was playing hard ball, fair and foul, which is the only way the end result will be good for us when negotiating with what is now our major competitor. I can`t see it now though, especially with Cummings going, but as I say I hope you are right.
People here talking about No-Deal Brexit as though it could well happen. My No-Deal Barometer has been trending down for some time and now stands at 50/50.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
80/20 in favour of a deal. But it will be a crap one for Britain no matter what Johnson says.
Deal, including sub deals and/or further delay from 1st Jan before deal is certain - 98% chance.
Actually defining what would count as deal and what would not would be tricky, though I imagine we'll sort of know. A bleak crash out without qualification could not be managed and won't happen.
Boris has a slim chance of hanging on till at least 2024 if he does a deal (slim because he loses the Tory head bangers) but no chance at all if he doesn't (because he loses everyone else).
Follow what's best for Boris's chances and you will be right.
That`s a very good point - what is a "deal". I can see access to territorial waters being kicked into the long grass.
If the EU want these measures removing they can compromise.
You’d be more honest, Philip, if you were to preface such comment with “I’m hoping for no deal”.
I have the same preferences I've had all along.
Good deal > No deal > Bad deal
And I'm not afraid of no deal.
But the entire UK haulage, shipping, food and retail industries are. I am spookily unconflicted about who to go with.
That's not true though.
Numerous representatives of those industries have said they can cope even with no deal.
You can cherrypick some people saying they're concerned or other weasel words. It that doesn't mean the entire industry are afraid.
The Bank of England's survey shows that between a third and a half of respondents in key sectors like transport, retail and manufacturing are either completely or partially unprepared for single market exit in six weeks. You can dismiss it if you like, but the BOE take it seriously enough to expect a material economic hit in Q1.
Comments
Unfortunately senior functionaries dont want to hear it just as much as politicians.
Fish - I personally don't care, though I understand and respect why others do I don't personally.
24 hour news is often a desperate attempt to fill space or else endless repeating.
Let Des O'Connor have his 15 minutes
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8950507/Cruel-Princess-Nut-Nut-nickname-Carrie-used-months.html
And emojid to 👸🏼🥜🥜
I wonder what Mrs Dom thinks of it all.She has after all, stayed married to him for 9 years.
That is part of the political theatre. These are all friends from The Spectator. We have outsourced our politics to an oversexed and well lubricated Tory party fanzine's editorial board.
When I was in the VIth Form, back in the 50's the Head encouraged us to read the Spectator, at a cut rate, so we could 'properly' participate in his weekly Current Affairs' lesson.
Tried it for a while, then switched to the New Statesman
So, take for example really specifically, James Forsyth's article in the Times/ST dated 13 November and headlined 'No-deal Brexit would be bad for the west'. Is this his personal opinion about something or a warm up on behalf of his wife Allegra Stratton to prepare us for a climb down?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge
WTF?
Understandably, Irish Nationalists living in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Derry and Donegal, say - imposed by London.
Understandably, Unionists in NI don't like to see a border within what they see as their country - between Larne and Cairnryan, say - imposed by Brussels.
One of the virtues of May's Deal was that it recognised the difficulty of Brexit in respecting both of these competing and conflicting imperatives.
Johnson's position is that it can all be magicked away with wishful thinking.
The picture of Cummings in the doorway might have been set up but aiui there are photographers in Downing Street all the time so just pausing at the open door for a few seconds till the long lenses swung in his direction would have been enough.
And is Cummings departure really political or might it be personal after all? I've not read all the reports but certainly one factor was Boris's anger about the Princess Nut Nut nickname. There is a superficially similar story (in iirc the Purnell biography) of Boris intervening to block the appointment of a poet who had years earlier suggested Boris's children had silly names. Isn't it more likely Boris cut up about insults to the mother of his new son than that a political rift developed just hours after he'd tried to promote Cain?
Just consider the problem:
We sell £4 billion of exports every week to the EU and nearly half by value and 90% by volume goes by truck through the Kent ports. Over 10,000 trucks a day pass through Dover. Even a 5 minute processing time per truck will reduce throughput capacity to about 30%, i.e 3,000 trucks a day and this assumes that every truck has the right paperwork. As of now hauliers report less than 20% awareness, let alone compliance by exporters, so you are talking a minimum backlog of 7000 trucks a day, every day, just at Dover. The total capacity of operation stack is 5,700 and even with the first Farage garage open there is only a further 1,700 capacity, even three or four new Farages would barely cover a day´s throughput. Within a couple of days the whole of Kent will be at a standstill, and this is going to happen even if there is a deal. With no deal, the through put could be as low as 1000 trucks a day.
So by the second week of January British exports by truck will have stopped and the economy will be taking a hit of £2-3 billion a week. Imports will also be similarly disrupted, because even if foreign trucks could get in, with UK customs just waving them through, when they try to leave the UK they will be caught up in the chaos. By the end of week one, just in time delivery from the EU will have stopped. Shortages will begin in the domestic economy. To use a famous example Marmite is being made, but unfortunately since the jars come from the Netherlands, production has to stop. One by one factories will start to shut down by the end of week 2. Manufacturing will be on its knees.
By this time significant shortages will be seen in the shops and prices will be rocketing. Sterling will be on the floor, and will probably break the symbolic € parity before the end of January if the crisis continues. Even emergency financial market intervention won´t help if the physical supply problems can not be eased.
Amusingly, 60% of toilet rolls manufactured in the UK require EU materials, so yes, there will either be shortages or major price increases as manufacturers seek to by pass Kent, but most likely both.
If you think the British people won´t blame Boris and the Tories as the fiasco unfolds, then well... nuff said.
The fact is that the UK still, even 4 and a half years later, totally unprepared by a "clean Brexit" and now the shit, so to speak, is about to hit the fan.
There are three relevant factors here and all play to the UK's advantage if we no deal.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7PsbPb_YM7M
Incidentally, should we read anything into the big 'Q' on his storage box?
Numerous representatives of those industries have said they can cope even with no deal.
You can cherrypick some people saying they're concerned or other weasel words. It that doesn't mean the entire industry are afraid.
Usually happens during election periods.
If a compromise is reached over fish then I'm not going to be bothered one way or another. Though I respect others have other opinions and if one isn't reached due to fish I will understand it.
If a compromise isn't reached then of course anyone breaking the law and attempting to steal from us should face the consequences of doing so.
My impression is that the younger generation on the island of Ireland have little emotional attachment to the two-State situation and would be perfectly happy with a merger if the circumstances were right. Brexit has encouraged those circumstances, one of its few tangible benefits imo.
Unfortunate name to pick given it meant that had to say 'Tay Bridge is down,' but there we are.
I expect that No Deal Brexit would be a damp squib initially. It will take some weeks and months for the impact to hit.
Perhaps the biggest hit will be to our negotiating power. Having ripped out the "Oven Ready" Deals Irish protocol, specifically written for the No Deal situation, no diplomat in the world will take our word as meaningful. All future deals will be cash up front.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay_Bridge_disaster
kerfuffles with the former down the years.
It is hyperbolic nonsense that isn't going to happen.
Indeed one of the nice things about Thanksgiving is that it is about friends, family and community rather than present giving and consumerism.
That was the model used for Diana, though, AIUI. And, again AIUI, the Queen Mother was NOT AMUSED!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-Y7Qi3fMs0
Edit - the image is of Tower Bridge, not London Bridge.
What's the PB Cognoscenti view? What do we think the percentage chance is now?
By the way, I think if it does happen it will be as much by accident as design, rather in the way we lost the Americas.
The Tay Bridge Disaster by William McGonagal
Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silv’ry Tay!
Alas! I am very sorry to say
That ninety lives have been taken away
On the last Sabbath day of 1879,
Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
’Twas about seven o’clock at night,
And the wind it blew with all its might,
And the rain came pouring down,
And the dark clouds seem’d to frown,
And the Demon of the air seem’d to say-
“I’ll blow down the Bridge of Tay.”
When the train left Edinburgh
The passengers’ hearts were light and felt no sorrow,
But Boreas blew a terrific gale,
Which made their hearts for to quail,
And many of the passengers with fear did say-
“I hope God will send us safe across the Bridge of Tay.”
But when the train came near to Wormit Bay,
Boreas he did loud and angry bray,
And shook the central girders of the Bridge of Tay
On the last Sabbath day of 1879,
Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
So the train sped on with all its might,
And Bonnie Dundee soon hove in sight,
And the passengers’ hearts felt light,
Thinking they would enjoy themselves on the New Year,
With their friends at home they lov’d most dear,
And wish them all a happy New Year.
So the train mov’d slowly along the Bridge of Tay,
Until it was about midway,
Then the central girders with a crash gave way,
And down went the train and passengers into the Tay!
The Storm Fiend did loudly bray,
Because ninety lives had been taken away,
On the last Sabbath day of 1879,
Which will be remember’d for a very long time.
(Continues in much the same style for quite some time...)
Worth remembering this bit too, as people will claim it 'notable' if some people express irritation when it will be normal.
The population will slide between sadness and irritability. In 2002, 130 people complained to the BBC about its insensitive coverage of the Queen Mother’s death; another 1,500 complained that Casualty was moved to BBC2.
And not a lot in the 10 years before that, TBH. Although I think Ed Miliband got the job too early and under-performed. Charles Kennedy's alcoholism was a tragedy, and not just for himself.
He would now only be in his v. early 60's.
And all the descriptions so far are work related issues.
The guy who services my central heating boiler is gifted and driven when it comes to heating engineering. I wouldn't want him performing brain surgery.
We all have talents and shortcomings. Johnson's talent is electioneering, his shortcoming is "doing" government.
I am sure I am not the only one to have wondered why the Board didn't simply ask me direct.
How does "it is unknowable" if that is your argument cut against what I've said? And surely it even more so cuts against Cicero's doommongering certainty of catastrophic systemic failure?
But that said, take out the raging anti-semite as opponent and I'm none too sure Boris would have done as well. We'll never know, obvs.
ETA and his female replacements would not need the tie.
Just because she may have opinions over what happens in the Government, that doesn't give her the right to meet people to discuss them. That's not "work".
Seems like a good Tory in the making.
Actually defining what would count as deal and what would not would be tricky, though I imagine we'll sort of know. A bleak crash out without qualification could not be managed and won't happen.
Boris has a slim chance of hanging on till at least 2024 if he does a deal (slim because he loses the Tory head bangers) but no chance at all if he doesn't (because he loses everyone else).
Follow what's best for Boris's chances and you will be right.
I had high hopes that the government was playing hard ball, fair and foul, which is the only way the end result will be good for us when negotiating with what is now our major competitor. I can`t see it now though, especially with Cummings going, but as I say I hope you are right.
Fast forward to CISO got fired and Accenture lost the contract...
Sometimes it does work out for the best