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My bet that Trump won’t concede – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited November 2020

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055
    Nigelb said:

    Given the strong likelihood of an effective vaccine being available for large scale vaccination early next year, it now pretty clear that the failure to keep infection rates under control has cost many thousands of lives, and will cost many thousands more over the winter.
    https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1326323517906968576

    How do people without medical insurance come off if they need hospitalization for Covid? For normal things I've always understood they just go without, but if that carries through for Covid their hospitalization figures aren't comparable with ours, surely?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.
    Also ignores the fact that not every student has a (permanent) home to go to.
    Certainly not with proper wifi and a place to study in. I am so relieved that my son was not due to go to University this year but next. I feel desperately sorry for my nephew who started his degree at Dundee this year. First time away from home out in the big bad world that should have been able to tempt him with a cornucopia of delights away from his somewhat over protective mother.
    Another thing I was wondering about this “students can all work online and from home” thing. Do universities not use books any more? Do students not need access to university libraries to obtain these books? Or is that all really old fashioned?

    Of course there will be students in their first year who are lost and bewildered. Confronted with work of a level far higher than they are used to. Who in normal circumstances would be able to get through this with the shared experience of other students in similar position. Who would be able to find common cause with students of similar personality and disposition. You can’t do that from home. I’m afraid the dropout rate will be enormous. And, sadly, a rising tide of mental health problems and suicides as many of the usual outlets for those with problems are simply not available. And there will be nobody to spot the tell tale indicators that people are struggling.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    AnneJGP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Given the strong likelihood of an effective vaccine being available for large scale vaccination early next year, it now pretty clear that the failure to keep infection rates under control has cost many thousands of lives, and will cost many thousands more over the winter.
    https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1326323517906968576

    How do people without medical insurance come off if they need hospitalization for Covid? For normal things I've always understood they just go without, but if that carries through for Covid their hospitalization figures aren't comparable with ours, surely?
    Normally they get treated in a state facility, then get bankrupted by the bill, but under the US system they do get treated.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,925
    US ballots aren't fungible are they ?
  • gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    Kayleigh McEnany is nothing more than Lady Haw Haw - and Boris and Cummings want to copy the same idea, and people on this forum think it will improve communications!
    Having a Press Secretary isn't a novel idea unique to Trump.

    Ever heard of Bernhard Ingram? Or CJ Cregg?
  • A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeL said:

    Simon Marks (LBC Washington Correspondent) has just said on LBC that Trump's strategy in Georgia is to insist on the recount being done by hand.

    The idea being that if it is done by hand it may not be possible to complete the recount by the time the Electoral College meets (in each state) on 14 December.

    Who knows what would then happen but there would at least be a chance that Biden would not get Georgia's Electoral College votes. Even if Trump didn't get them either that wouldn't harm Trump as Trump's objective is just to stop Biden getting 270.

    Why wouldn’t it be possible? Isn’t that just a question of resources?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.
    Also ignores the fact that not every student has a (permanent) home to go to.
    Certainly not with proper wifi and a place to study in. I am so relieved that my son was not due to go to University this year but next. I feel desperately sorry for my nephew who started his degree at Dundee this year. First time away from home out in the big bad world that should have been able to tempt him with a cornucopia of delights away from his somewhat over protective mother.
    Another thing I was wondering about this “students can all work online and from home” thing. Do universities not use books any more? Do students not need access to university libraries to obtain these books? Or is that all really old fashioned?

    Of course there will be students in their first year who are lost and bewildered. Confronted with work of a level far higher than they are used to. Who in normal circumstances would be able to get through this with the shared experience of other students in similar position. Who would be able to find common cause with students of similar personality and disposition. You can’t do that from home. I’m afraid the dropout rate will be enormous. And, sadly, a rising tide of mental health problems and suicides as many of the usual outlets for those with problems are simply not available. And there will be nobody to spot the tell tale indicators that people are struggling.
    I think the need for actual physical books is much diminished by online resources but it will no doubt vary from subject to subject. The latter point is key. Even now, in my current job, I desperately miss the camaraderie that used to work in the Faculty Library where there was always a choice of people who were willing to act as a sounding board for you when you were stuck for the price of a cup of coffee. As a young student it would have been very, very difficult and our mental health services are threadbare at the best of times.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:
    Pence doesn’t like him or the hand on the shoulder routine does he 😃
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    She selected Mook to run her campaign and he’s a f*visit of the highest order?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Mass screening appears to be extremely effective:

    Slovakia Says COVID Double-Testing Cut Number of Infections by More Than Half
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-09/slovakia-says-covid-double-testing-cut-number-of-infections-by-more-than-half
    Slovakia's coronavirus testing and quarantine scheme, running over the past two weekends, has helped cut the proportion of infections by more than half, Prime Minister Igor Matovic said on Monday.

    The country of 5.5 million tested 3.6 million people, excluding small children and some senior citizens, over the first weekend in November, with those testing positive having to go into quarantine.

    It repeated tests for just over 2 million over this past weekend when testing took place only in more affected areas, with the infection rate turning out to be much lower thanks to the earlier quarantine orders.

    The scheme has been watched by other countries struggling with a spike in coronavirus cases.

    Taking into account districts that were tested on both weekends, the infection rate dropped from 1.47% on the first weekend to 0.62% of those who took the test on the second weekend, Matovic told a news conference.

    Including some additional tests done among police services, senior homes and companies, the second round returned 13,509 positive results.

    "We are going into a tough winter," Matovic said. "We have an extraordinarily effective tool in antigen testing that cuts the share of infected people by 58%."

    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.

    The scheme used antigen swab tests that return results within 15-30 minutes but are less accurate than standard laboratory PCR tests.The government has argued that while it was aware the tests may miss a sizeable proportion of those infected, it was still worth it and repeated testing narrowed that probability of falsely negative results...
  • To cheer people up a bit: here is a golf shot (via the BBC): https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/golf/54897477
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    It'a the same the world over.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Nigelb said:

    Mass screening appears to be extremely effective:

    Slovakia Says COVID Double-Testing Cut Number of Infections by More Than Half
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-09/slovakia-says-covid-double-testing-cut-number-of-infections-by-more-than-half
    Slovakia's coronavirus testing and quarantine scheme, running over the past two weekends, has helped cut the proportion of infections by more than half, Prime Minister Igor Matovic said on Monday.

    The country of 5.5 million tested 3.6 million people, excluding small children and some senior citizens, over the first weekend in November, with those testing positive having to go into quarantine.

    It repeated tests for just over 2 million over this past weekend when testing took place only in more affected areas, with the infection rate turning out to be much lower thanks to the earlier quarantine orders.

    The scheme has been watched by other countries struggling with a spike in coronavirus cases.

    Taking into account districts that were tested on both weekends, the infection rate dropped from 1.47% on the first weekend to 0.62% of those who took the test on the second weekend, Matovic told a news conference.

    Including some additional tests done among police services, senior homes and companies, the second round returned 13,509 positive results.

    "We are going into a tough winter," Matovic said. "We have an extraordinarily effective tool in antigen testing that cuts the share of infected people by 58%."

    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.

    The scheme used antigen swab tests that return results within 15-30 minutes but are less accurate than standard laboratory PCR tests.The government has argued that while it was aware the tests may miss a sizeable proportion of those infected, it was still worth it and repeated testing narrowed that probability of falsely negative results...

    Has anyone seen any feedback on our Liverpool experiment (and I don't mean the one involving them being allowed to win the league again after 20 years)?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,055
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Pence doesn’t like him or the hand on the shoulder routine does he 😃
    The way I read that image is that Mr Biden is praying for Mr Pence. The body language of both fit perfectly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Nigelb said:

    Mass screening appears to be extremely effective:

    Slovakia Says COVID Double-Testing Cut Number of Infections by More Than Half
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-09/slovakia-says-covid-double-testing-cut-number-of-infections-by-more-than-half
    Slovakia's coronavirus testing and quarantine scheme, running over the past two weekends, has helped cut the proportion of infections by more than half, Prime Minister Igor Matovic said on Monday.

    The country of 5.5 million tested 3.6 million people, excluding small children and some senior citizens, over the first weekend in November, with those testing positive having to go into quarantine.

    It repeated tests for just over 2 million over this past weekend when testing took place only in more affected areas, with the infection rate turning out to be much lower thanks to the earlier quarantine orders.

    The scheme has been watched by other countries struggling with a spike in coronavirus cases.

    Taking into account districts that were tested on both weekends, the infection rate dropped from 1.47% on the first weekend to 0.62% of those who took the test on the second weekend, Matovic told a news conference.

    Including some additional tests done among police services, senior homes and companies, the second round returned 13,509 positive results.

    "We are going into a tough winter," Matovic said. "We have an extraordinarily effective tool in antigen testing that cuts the share of infected people by 58%."

    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.

    The scheme used antigen swab tests that return results within 15-30 minutes but are less accurate than standard laboratory PCR tests.The government has argued that while it was aware the tests may miss a sizeable proportion of those infected, it was still worth it and repeated testing narrowed that probability of falsely negative results...

    On the latter point - "The government has argued that while it was aware the tests may miss a sizeable proportion of those infected, it was still worth it and repeated testing narrowed that probability of falsely negative results..." - this is one of the things which has seen the medical establishment oppose the early rollout of mass screening.
    It is an absurdity.

    If you are testing 50% of your population and only detect (say) 60% of those infected (and antigen tests are a great deal more accurate than that), you are still doing massively better than PCR, where even if you detect 100% of infections, you're only testing maybe 1-3% of the population for the same time and similar resources.

    And the antigen tests will also catch those who are infected days earlier than PCR testing of symptomatic individuals.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
    She's German ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    Though the gerrymandering in the US is quite something.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy purports to be a treatment

    Vaccines prime the host’s immune system to prevent or mitigate an infection

    There’s a fundamental difference
  • DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    The UK is blue in towns as well as country.
  • kamski said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
    More obvious than insulting voters and not bothering to campaign in the States she lost narrowly? More obvious than Biden heavily campaigning in the States he flipped?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    Though the gerrymandering in the US is quite something.
    It is, but its a game all sides play. The US would be better off with real constituencies and less Balkanisation
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    The UK is blue in towns as well as country.
    It depends on macro or micro. In true blue East Leicester, Melton Mowbray returns Labour councillors etc.
  • Nigelb said:


    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.
    ..

    Now there’s an idea for the anti-vaxers
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
  • DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.
    Also ignores the fact that not every student has a (permanent) home to go to.
    Certainly not with proper wifi and a place to study in. I am so relieved that my son was not due to go to University this year but next. I feel desperately sorry for my nephew who started his degree at Dundee this year. First time away from home out in the big bad world that should have been able to tempt him with a cornucopia of delights away from his somewhat over protective mother.
    Another thing I was wondering about this “students can all work online and from home” thing. Do universities not use books any more? Do students not need access to university libraries to obtain these books? Or is that all really old fashioned?

    Of course there will be students in their first year who are lost and bewildered. Confronted with work of a level far higher than they are used to. Who in normal circumstances would be able to get through this with the shared experience of other students in similar position. Who would be able to find common cause with students of similar personality and disposition. You can’t do that from home. I’m afraid the dropout rate will be enormous. And, sadly, a rising tide of mental health problems and suicides as many of the usual outlets for those with problems are simply not available. And there will be nobody to spot the tell tale indicators that people are struggling.
    I think the need for actual physical books is much diminished by online resources but it will no doubt vary from subject to subject. The latter point is key. Even now, in my current job, I desperately miss the camaraderie that used to work in the Faculty Library where there was always a choice of people who were willing to act as a sounding board for you when you were stuck for the price of a cup of coffee. As a young student it would have been very, very difficult and our mental health services are threadbare at the best of times.
    My memory of University library even in the 80s was most people were there to study not borrow books, (apart from short loan). I wonder if any University library has statistics on the number of borrowings per book nowadays?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mass screening appears to be extremely effective:

    Slovakia Says COVID Double-Testing Cut Number of Infections by More Than Half
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-09/slovakia-says-covid-double-testing-cut-number-of-infections-by-more-than-half
    Slovakia's coronavirus testing and quarantine scheme, running over the past two weekends, has helped cut the proportion of infections by more than half, Prime Minister Igor Matovic said on Monday.

    The country of 5.5 million tested 3.6 million people, excluding small children and some senior citizens, over the first weekend in November, with those testing positive having to go into quarantine.

    It repeated tests for just over 2 million over this past weekend when testing took place only in more affected areas, with the infection rate turning out to be much lower thanks to the earlier quarantine orders.

    The scheme has been watched by other countries struggling with a spike in coronavirus cases.

    Taking into account districts that were tested on both weekends, the infection rate dropped from 1.47% on the first weekend to 0.62% of those who took the test on the second weekend, Matovic told a news conference.

    Including some additional tests done among police services, senior homes and companies, the second round returned 13,509 positive results.

    "We are going into a tough winter," Matovic said. "We have an extraordinarily effective tool in antigen testing that cuts the share of infected people by 58%."

    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.

    The scheme used antigen swab tests that return results within 15-30 minutes but are less accurate than standard laboratory PCR tests.The government has argued that while it was aware the tests may miss a sizeable proportion of those infected, it was still worth it and repeated testing narrowed that probability of falsely negative results...

    Has anyone seen any feedback on our Liverpool experiment (and I don't mean the one involving them being allowed to win the league again after 20 years)?
    There's this, from a day ago:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-54885261

    It sounds rather less massive or well organised than the Slovak experiment, but the initial results are interesting:
    City mayor Joe Anderson said 23,170 people have been tested since midday on Friday with 0.7% testing positive.
    Those testing positive had no symptoms, testers said.
    All residents and workers in Liverpool have been offered tests.
    There are 18 test centres - including Liverpool's Anfield stadium - and Mr Anderson said there had been a "great response" from people.
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson had urged all the city's 500,000 residents to take part, saying "do it for your friends, for your relatives, for your community" in a bid to drive the disease down"....


    As I predicted, they are catching the presymptomatic (and presumably some asymptomatic) infected. A huge advantage over the PCR testing regime.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Choices shouldn’t be consequence free. Perhaps Slovakia’s example of locking down and quarantining test refusers might be a model?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy purports to be a treatment

    Vaccines prime the host’s immune system to prevent or mitigate an infection

    There’s a fundamental difference
    No it isn't, it is just saying the same thing twice.

    I was joking, by the way. The relevant fundamental difference is two centuries of cast-iron evidence that vaccines work.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020
    At what point, if ever, do GOP politicians wake up and realise that Trump is trying to take the whole system down with him (or stay in power on the basis that the whole system is invalid to choose the Country's leadership)?

    Because fundamentally, the sort of claims he is spreading now jeopardise every elected official Democrat or Republican. Because the more he alleges that the election was unfair and stolen, not on the basis of actual evidence, but on the basis of alleged fundamental weaknesses in the electoral system which allow the "possibility" of fraud then it ceases to become party political. If the system is wide open to fraud, but there is no evidence of specific instances, then no election is safe. Whether Republican or Democrat controlled, whether Republican or Democrat elected. Remember "computer voting/counting" is not restricted to mail in ballots. Where it is used it covers ALL ballots cast...

    Whither democracy?

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2020

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    The UK is blue in towns as well as country.
    Many people don’t want corrupt Tory or labour placement councillor, that’s why local government is more interesting than national when it’s actually contested.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited November 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
    No airline travel without vaccination should do the trick.
    Good luck with your court cases there.

    And, of course, unvaccinated you would probably not be allowed into hospitals for elective procedures, without first being tested.
  • Charles said:

    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
    That really depends how it's designed. The US used to have astonishingly terrible systems, but it's got a lot better. In places that are doing it right, the computer is printing out the vote on a piece of paper, which the voter verifies, and also creating a digital record which is used for faster counts. This is probably often better than just writing on a piece of paper, as the printed paper is just as good as a hand-written piece of paper, but you also have a digital record that you can compare to raise the alarm if some of the paper ballots fell victim to a bizarre rodent infestation or whatever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,201
    edited November 2020
    Talking of concessions, Neil Kinnock never formally conceded the 1992 election to John Major. He gave a speech to party workers at 5am on election night but didn't mention John Major or the election result directly. He just said people deserved better than what they'd got.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
    No airline travel without vaccination should do the trick.
    Good luck with your court cases there.
    How do you mean? There's already religions which decline all medical interventions (JW or 7th day adventists or something) and I can see their numbers growing. What is your answer to their claim they are being discriminated against on grounds of faith?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Is the US heading for its second civil war?

    I'm not entirely joking.

    Where were the armed Trump supporters I was worried would stop voting in Pennsylvania and Michigan when Trump was still ahead? If they'd done that there was a chance the courts would have awarded Trump victory on the basis of the partial counts, and constitutionally that would have been that.

    If his supporters weren't willing to risk their necks at a point when the barriers to victory were lower, why would they do so now?
  • Apparently Arizona basically doesn't do recounts, although it's still mathematically possible for Trump to win it on the first count:
    https://www.azmirror.com/2020/11/10/an-arizona-ballot-recount-they-are-rare-nearly-impossible-to-trigger/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
    No airline travel without vaccination should do the trick.
    Good luck with your court cases there.

    And, of course, unvaccinated you would probably not be allowed into hospitals for elective procedures, without first being tested.
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
    No airline travel without vaccination should do the trick.
    Good luck with your court cases there.

    And, of course, unvaccinated you would probably not be allowed into hospitals for elective procedures, without first being tested.
    Do you get an exemption if you are not medically fit to get a vaccination?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    Though the gerrymandering in the US is quite something.
    It is, but its a game all sides play. The US would be better off with real constituencies and less Balkanisation
    It's really not a game both sides play equally. There are, for example, several states with Democratic administrations which have introduced independent commissions for redistricting.

    And the US might be better off with many things, but the Constitution strongly constrains what is possible.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
    As I've said before, I think relatability is the key difference, US presidential winners have long possessed a certain folksiness or laconicness, sometimes even a Forest Gump type quality. An "I could go for a beer" persona.

    Even leaving aside outright sexism, that's a tough gig for a woman who has risen enough to become a presidential candidate. It's not impossible, the quality does exist in female politicians: Jess Philips or Liz Kendall come to mind, in a US context I know less, but AOC seems like she might have it. Hillary really didn't.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Charles said:

    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
    That really depends how it's designed. The US used to have astonishingly terrible systems, but it's got a lot better. In places that are doing it right, the computer is printing out the vote on a piece of paper, which the voter verifies, and also creating a digital record which is used for faster counts. This is probably often better than just writing on a piece of paper, as the printed paper is just as good as a hand-written piece of paper, but you also have a digital record that you can compare to raise the alarm if some of the paper ballots fell victim to a bizarre rodent infestation or whatever.
    A lot of the Republican rumours and disinformation are relying on widespread belief in electoral practices that are at odds with how the processes currently work. There has been an enormous overhaul of election processes and machinery over the last few years.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited November 2020

    Is the US heading for its second civil war?

    I'm not entirely joking.

    Where were the armed Trump supporters I was worried would stop voting in Pennsylvania and Michigan when Trump was still ahead? If they'd done that there was a chance the courts would have awarded Trump victory on the basis of the partial counts, and constitutionally that would have been that.

    If his supporters weren't willing to risk their necks at a point when the barriers to victory were lower, why would they do so now?
    His supporters have been quiet so far. But I think the risk is coming more from the executive, not in fact spontaneously from the grassroots, and his supporters. Now he's called them out to the streets on Saturday, and is also busy packing the government and defence bureaucracy with loyalists.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,435

    A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.

    My course has been online only for about a month already and the tuition fee is unchanged and neither is it likely to change. 🤷‍♂️ It would be lovely if it did though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nigelb said:


    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.
    ..

    Now there’s an idea for the anti-vaxers
    Nigel, wouldn’t it be more convenient for them to sew little yellow syringe badges on to their sleeves?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited November 2020

    Is the US heading for its second civil war?

    I'm not entirely joking.

    Where were the armed Trump supporters I was worried would stop voting in Pennsylvania and Michigan when Trump was still ahead? If they'd done that there was a chance the courts would have awarded Trump victory on the basis of the partial counts, and constitutionally that would have been that.

    If his supporters weren't willing to risk their necks at a point when the barriers to victory were lower, why would they do so now?
    They're behind you.

    :wink:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
    That really depends how it's designed. The US used to have astonishingly terrible systems, but it's got a lot better. In places that are doing it right, the computer is printing out the vote on a piece of paper, which the voter verifies, and also creating a digital record which is used for faster counts. This is probably often better than just writing on a piece of paper, as the printed paper is just as good as a hand-written piece of paper, but you also have a digital record that you can compare to raise the alarm if some of the paper ballots fell victim to a bizarre rodent infestation or whatever.
    A lot of the Republican rumours and disinformation are relying on widespread belief in electoral practices that are at odds with how the processes currently work. There has been an enormous overhaul of election processes and machinery over the last few years.
    Its still difficult to look at a system where there are certified votes for none of the States 8 days after the election and in many cases still uncounted ballots and claim it is "working".
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited November 2020
    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy isn`t a tiny dose of anything - it`s just water. Absolutely cannot be compared to a vaccine.
    They don’t even give you the magic water anymore. They sell sugar pills, that presumably were once dissolved in the magic water, and the water memory wave can survive evaporation and be imprinted on sugar. I wonder if they need to sucuss the water while it is evaporating (sucussion being the part after each 100:1 dilution where the water is shaken and banged on the table 100 times to “activate the vital energy” of the diluted substance according to homeopathy’s founder Hahnemann)

    Its advocates claim that homeopathy was over 25 times more effective at treating the Spanish Flu than allopathic remedies (found that and lots more delights here http://chironhealthcare.com/homoeopathy-explained/ ), I think we ought to look into it. Interestingly, if you quack and say “allopathy” at the same time it sounds a lot like “proper medicine”.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    How many Democrats actually challenged the outcome of the election itself, though ?
    The cases are entirely different, so your ‘to be fair’ isn’t.
    TBF (again) I rather expected to be picked up on that! However, many people argued for quite a while that it wasn't a 'fair' result because of illegal and covert intervention, so while the detail is indeed different the end result ....... that the result wasn't what the electorate would really wanted if the election hadn't been interfered with....... isn't.

    That's not saying that I don't think Trump's behaving like a toddler who has had their toy taken away.Because he is.
    I only hope that after the Convention meeting on 12th December, when the Presidency is awarded to Biden that Trump accepts the position with a least a modicum of grace.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Scott_xP said:
    So youre saying Biden is a fascist ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Even if wide open to fraud youd need to prove there was fraud, Donald mate.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    How many Democrats actually challenged the outcome of the election itself, though ?
    The cases are entirely different, so your ‘to be fair’ isn’t.
    Here's what I don't understand.

    If Trump keeps on pushing these allegations, sooner or later there'll be public rulings - by Supreme Court judges he's appointed - that he's talking through his rear end.
    But no-one's properly investigated the Putin interference allegations, because Trump stopped the investigations - and anyway, most sensible allegations aren't that the 2016 election was invalid but that Trump was helped by a crook.

    And the longer Putin refuses to acknowledge Biden, the greater the evidence that Trump is still being helped by a crook.

    Which just adds to the evidence against Trump in the inevitable State court cases against him. Is Putin's real motive trying to ensure Trump's death in jail?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    Interesting wording on the market. If Trump refers to Biden being president after 21 January, does that count as conceding? Wording includes "acknowledges that he will not be president on 21 January" so - as others have pointed out - doesn't a tweet "from tomorrow Sleepy Joe will be president, even though he stole the election with fake votes. SAD!" on 20 January mean he concedes? I can see a fair chance of something like that, with more capital letters and less punctuation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.

    My course has been online only for about a month already and the tuition fee is unchanged and neither is it likely to change. 🤷‍♂️ It would be lovely if it did though.
    Why should online teaching be cheaper? In many ways it is more expensive to organise.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    AnneJGP said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Pence doesn’t like him or the hand on the shoulder routine does he 😃
    The way I read that image is that Mr Biden is praying for Mr Pence. The body language of both fit perfectly.
    IIRC Pence is a former RC who became an Evangelical. Biden is a 'cradle Catholic' who has stuck with it, but accepts 'modern' social values. Pence doesn't.
  • Scott_xP said:
    So youre saying Biden is a fascist ?
    go back to bed
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,435
    Foxy said:

    A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.

    My course has been online only for about a month already and the tuition fee is unchanged and neither is it likely to change. 🤷‍♂️ It would be lovely if it did though.
    Why should online teaching be cheaper? In many ways it is more expensive to organise.
    Because it's wank.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    Pro_Rata said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
    As I've said before, I think relatability is the key difference, US presidential winners have long possessed a certain folksiness or laconicness, sometimes even a Forest Gump type quality. An "I could go for a beer" persona.

    Even leaving aside outright sexism, that's a tough gig for a woman who has risen enough to become a presidential candidate. It's not impossible, the quality does exist in female politicians: Jess Philips or Liz Kendall come to mind, in a US context I know less, but AOC seems like she might have it. Hillary really didn't.
    I think that's part of it, although there was a level of hatred aimed at Clinton that seemed disproportionate to the stated reasons - even among some of my left-leaning friends. For example, you may dislike Clinton because of her support for NATO intervention against Gadaffi when she was Secretary of State - but it is weird if you at the same time like Obama who was the guy who actually ordered the US strikes.
  • Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
    No airline travel without vaccination should do the trick.
    Good luck with your court cases there.
    How do you mean? There's already religions which decline all medical interventions (JW or 7th day adventists or something) and I can see their numbers growing. What is your answer to their claim they are being discriminated against on grounds of faith?
    That they are being discriminated against for being potentially infectious. The don't get to impose the consequences of their beliefs on others.
    I have little doubt that once the vaccine is broadly available, airline will require vaccination certificates - or you to pay to be tested before you board.
    Many airlines (and countries in the more clued up parts of the world) ALREADY require a negative PCR test within “X” hours before travel - eventually the rest will catch up. “Freedom” appears to also extend to “infect others” in some minds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    a least the US system only gives the (winning) incumbent two terms. though I reckon Donald would have tested that if he could (and still might)........
    As most genuinely democratic places without term limits show, its damn hard even to make it to 10 years, so in practice lack of term limits does not hold them back.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:


    The testing was free and voluntary, but the government imposed a lockdown, including a ban on work commutes, on those who refused to take the test.

    People have to carry around certificates saying they took the test and tested negative.
    ..

    Now there’s an idea for the anti-vaxers
    Nigel, wouldn’t it be more convenient for them to sew little yellow syringe badges on to their sleeves?
    I think something along the lines of a leper's bell might be more the thing...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy isn`t a tiny dose of anything - it`s just water. Absolutely cannot be compared to a vaccine.
    Its advocates claim that homeopathy was over 25 times more effective at treating the Spanish Flu than allopathic remedies (found that and lots more delights here http://chironhealthcare.com/homoeopathy-explained/ ), I think we ought to look into it. Interestingly, if you quack and say “allopathy” at the same time it sounds a lot like “proper medicine”.
    There is an interesting theory that many Spanish Flu deaths were iatrogenic due to fatal overdose of Asprin. It is quite possible that some would have survived better with sugar water.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091002132346.htm
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Trump isn't completely without friends. In fact if Pinochet is watching from beyond the clouds he might be keeping his fingers crossed as well

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54871890
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
    They aren't missing it nobody wants to say it. Biden is not a woman.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,310
    I think Trump will ultimately concede once all legal avenues open to him to push recounts and challenge ballots are exhausted, remember in 2000 Al Gore did not concede to George W Bush until 13th December and it is still only November 11th
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    Makes Trump's performance look even worse
    I think it's a reflection of the different biases in the different systems. Which I think is something like...

    Electoral College for President would be on a knife edge when the Democrats have a lead of ~2%.
    House of Representatives tipping point at ~4%.
    Senate tipping point at ~6%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    That's a pretty massive difference, particularly when many of the legal challenges thus far have been tossed out as meritless and blatantly so, thus showing they were not made in good faith.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited November 2020
    Yup ; not only that, but there's talk of him doing more, in that part of the bureaucratic machine. He's got his eye on some of the people who were assistants to Esper as well, as far as I understand it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited November 2020
    Difficult to see how that bet will come to pass.

    The only way I can imagine it is if Trump quietly leaves the White House and makes no comment on Biden's succession. Difficult to imagine Trump not commenting, or being quiet.

    If he comments, he is bound to complain about what's happening, and how can he do that without acknowledging that the presidency is being taken away from him?

    Conversely, if he claims he is still going to be president, how far can he go in that direction without laying himself open to a serious criminal charge?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,310

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
    Town versus country, the UK is not that much different
    The UK is blue in towns as well as country.
    Trump still won a lot of small towns as well as rural areas, it was the suburbs where Biden won this time and made the big gains and where Hillary had lost to Trump in 2016 (though in the US suburbia is defined very broadly and includes vast urban areas and a lot of what we in the UK would consider market towns or ex industrial towns)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Charles said:

    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
    It's debatable because his second sentence is a clear implication there was fraud, not just that the system is open to it.

    You really need to work harder than that when doing the 'just asking questions' kind of defence when you can pretend it isn't a defence of him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    How many Democrats actually challenged the outcome of the election itself, though ?
    The cases are entirely different, so your ‘to be fair’ isn’t.
    TBF (again) I rather expected to be picked up on that! However, many people argued for quite a while that it wasn't a 'fair' result because of illegal and covert intervention, so while the detail is indeed different the end result ....... that the result wasn't what the electorate would really wanted if the election hadn't been interfered with....... isn't.

    That's not saying that I don't think Trump's behaving like a toddler who has had their toy taken away.Because he is.
    I only hope that after the Convention meeting on 12th December, when the Presidency is awarded to Biden that Trump accepts the position with a least a modicum of grace.
    There's a simple and profound difference. While arguing that there was election interference, the Democrats still accepted the result.
    They subsequently pursued the legal remedy of impeachment - and the Mueller report pretty conclusively demonstrated that collusion of some kind took place - but they never hoped for, or even suggested the overturning of the election. Had Trump been successfully impeached, Pence would have become President.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    eristdoof said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Nobody trusted her ?
    These are all good guesses (although why do people trust Biden more than Clinton? I don't think I do). But there is something even more obvious that everyone is missing.
    They aren't missing it nobody wants to say it. Biden is not a woman.
    Have you any evidence for that ? Surely it's for Jo to determine its own gender ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.

    My course has been online only for about a month already and the tuition fee is unchanged and neither is it likely to change. 🤷‍♂️ It would be lovely if it did though.
    Why should online teaching be cheaper? In many ways it is more expensive to organise.
    Because it's wank.
    Poor quality of higher education in the UK is certainly an issue. Not sure what the alternative is, as without the fees the Uni will go bust.

    Productivity in terms of both quality and quantity has taken a massive hit in my workplace too.

    Shortly I am to be doing Med School interviews online. Not totally convinced about that. It seems another step back for social equality. Will report back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    HYUFD said:

    I think Trump will ultimately concede once all legal avenues open to him to push recounts and challenge ballots are exhausted, remember in 2000 Al Gore did not concede to George W Bush until 13th December and it is still only November 11th

    That's likely true, but the ability to challenge is not a requirement and even if he wins some cases hes clearly abused the right given how many cases have been lost.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:
    We all know what happens next. A dose of the same for its vassal states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,310
    4 pro democracy legislators removed from the Hong Kong legislature by Beijing

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-54899171
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,557
    Smells bad. Like he’s getting his chess pieces ready.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    How many Democrats actually challenged the outcome of the election itself, though ?
    The cases are entirely different, so your ‘to be fair’ isn’t.
    TBF (again) I rather expected to be picked up on that! However, many people argued for quite a while that it wasn't a 'fair' result because of illegal and covert intervention, so while the detail is indeed different the end result ....... that the result wasn't what the electorate would really wanted if the election hadn't been interfered with....... isn't.

    That's not saying that I don't think Trump's behaving like a toddler who has had their toy taken away.Because he is.
    I only hope that after the Convention meeting on 12th December, when the Presidency is awarded to Biden that Trump accepts the position with a least a modicum of grace.
    There's a simple and profound difference. While arguing that there was election interference, the Democrats still accepted the result.
    They subsequently pursued the legal remedy of impeachment - and the Mueller report pretty conclusively demonstrated that collusion of some kind took place - but they never hoped for, or even suggested the overturning of the election. Had Trump been successfully impeached, Pence would have become President.
    Point taken.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Foxy said:

    A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.

    My course has been online only for about a month already and the tuition fee is unchanged and neither is it likely to change. 🤷‍♂️ It would be lovely if it did though.
    Why should online teaching be cheaper? In many ways it is more expensive to organise.
    Because it's wank.
    online wanking is cheap to free, it's true.

  • Scott_xP said:
    Spot on, Mr Eds idea that he would still vote for Trump now, but not afterwards if he stole the election is baffling but all too common. The whole point of stealing the election is to take permanent power, not to be bound by mere votes in the future.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
    That really depends how it's designed. The US used to have astonishingly terrible systems, but it's got a lot better. In places that are doing it right, the computer is printing out the vote on a piece of paper, which the voter verifies, and also creating a digital record which is used for faster counts. This is probably often better than just writing on a piece of paper, as the printed paper is just as good as a hand-written piece of paper, but you also have a digital record that you can compare to raise the alarm if some of the paper ballots fell victim to a bizarre rodent infestation or whatever.
    A lot of the Republican rumours and disinformation are relying on widespread belief in electoral practices that are at odds with how the processes currently work. There has been an enormous overhaul of election processes and machinery over the last few years.
    Its still difficult to look at a system where there are certified votes for none of the States 8 days after the election and in many cases still uncounted ballots and claim it is "working".
    But that is in part because you have a pre-determined view of what it means for the system to be "working". From the viewpoint of a norm (in the vast majority of countries outside the US) where power passes from one administration to another the instant the vote count is completed. Making time of the essence.

    These conditions simply don't exist in the US and their laws don't require them, so you are judging them from a position of expectation that they don't set out to achieve. Of course, if a consensus emerges that media calls and the such like are no longer sufficient to accept the de facto winner of an election, and allow necessary processes to commence in a timely matter, then there will be increasing pressure to overhaul the speed of their electoral processes. But i don't think you can blame them for being slow at something that they are under absolutely no obligation (legal or by all precedent) to do differently.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Foxy said:

    A lot going on today:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/donald-trump-longshot-election-lawsuits

    Trumpers are convinced its been stolen and that their legal challenges will remove the "illegal votes". When you look at the nature of these challenges - and the margin of victory for Biden - its clear these will fail and fail massively. Once it becomes clear that the results stand - results which people are convinced are fraudulent somehow - thats when the shooting starts. To answer @Mysticrose and her "is this Civil War" question - possibly

    As for students, a mass rapid test followed by tight windows of departure sounds great on paper and will be a poorly organised disaster in reality. Students will travel home and take the pox with them with the inevitable results. "Online teaching only from 9th December" - I assume that is for the remainder of term and not into 2021? Universities need student income for accommodation as do private landlords. The government isn't going to cover that so either they send students back in January with the inevitable return of Chernobyl strength Covid hotspots or they try to force students to keep paying full whack for part teaching and full whack for accommodation they aren't allowed to live in.

    My course has been online only for about a month already and the tuition fee is unchanged and neither is it likely to change. 🤷‍♂️ It would be lovely if it did though.
    Why should online teaching be cheaper? In many ways it is more expensive to organise.
    Whether or not it is cheaper, Gallowgate chose a course offering in-person Teaching. Well organised online courses are good, but they suit some students better than others, and I think that if you can commit the time and get yourself to the right location, then in-person courses are better for most students than online ones.

    I think anyone who pays good money for a service and then get offered a different service has a good reason to grumble.

    The counter justification in Corona times, which the Berlin unis are giving, is that if the courses were not held online then the students would not be able to study at all. But our students pay a couple of hundred Euros, not almost 10 grand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,925
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Now why is that debatable?

    I thought it was well understood among IT professionals that any computer voting system was “wide open to fraud and intervention”?
    It's debatable because his second sentence is a clear implication there was fraud, not just that the system is open to it.

    You really need to work harder than that when doing the 'just asking questions' kind of defence when you can pretend it isn't a defence of him.
    Democrats have complained about this forever. Clinton's Detroit undervote was particularly suspicious in 2016.
    https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/national-party-news/311099-skeptical-70000-black-voters-abstained-from
    It's not the Democrats doing any rigging.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
    We all have to do so. The freedom to make bad decisions is a fundamental freedom.

    If we are only free to do what the government says, what sort of freedom is that?
    Well, a second amendmenter might say that, and I might reply: freedom from the fear of masss shootings. Very difficult to enforce compulsory vaccination, though. I don't think anyone has ver tried it *on adults* because of the liberty issues involved. You can't physically inject people against their will, you can't prosecute 35% of the nation without the courts seizing up, and if you try to do it indirectly by not letting people get on a bus or into a cinema without producing a vaccination certificate you will run slap bang into discrimination/human rights legislation.
    No airline travel without vaccination should do the trick.
    Good luck with your court cases there.
    How do you mean? There's already religions which decline all medical interventions (JW or 7th day adventists or something) and I can see their numbers growing. What is your answer to their claim they are being discriminated against on grounds of faith?
    That they are being discriminated against for being potentially infectious. The don't get to impose the consequences of their beliefs on others.
    I have little doubt that once the vaccine is broadly available, airline will require vaccination certificates - or you to pay to be tested before you board.
    Many airlines (and countries in the more clued up parts of the world) ALREADY require a negative PCR test within “X” hours before travel - eventually the rest will catch up. “Freedom” appears to also extend to “infect others” in some minds.
    There are lots of countries that require proof of yellow fever vaccination from travellers from certain areas.

    If you don't provide proof to your school that your child is vaccinated against measles in Germany you can be fined up to 2500 euros. It's also compulsory for teachers, medical staff, and some other workers.

    So there is precedent for an element of compulsion for vaccination for public health reasons.

    AFAIK some Jehovah's Witnesses refuse only blood transfusions. I believe competent adults' refusal of such treatment is usually respected.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    But that's precisely why some people think it's rigged.

    We, of course, know that what it really means is that there were people out there prepared to vote for Biden to get rid of Trump, but wouldn't put the Dems in complete control.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    HYUFD said:

    4 pro democracy legislators removed from the Hong Kong legislature by Beijing

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-54899171

    Democratic HK is dead. China must really have been spooked by the local elections (apparently they believed their own crap and were surprised at the result) and took action and ain't none in the world able to stop them. Poor bastards.
  • Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy isn`t a tiny dose of anything - it`s just water. Absolutely cannot be compared to a vaccine.
    Its advocates claim that homeopathy was over 25 times more effective at treating the Spanish Flu than allopathic remedies (found that and lots more delights here http://chironhealthcare.com/homoeopathy-explained/ ), I think we ought to look into it. Interestingly, if you quack and say “allopathy” at the same time it sounds a lot like “proper medicine”.
    There is an interesting theory that many Spanish Flu deaths were iatrogenic due to fatal overdose of Asprin. It is quite possible that some would have survived better with sugar water.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091002132346.htm
    “It’s better for you than a fatal overdose” is the best argument for homeopathy I’ve ever heard, and I’ve heard plenty of others.
This discussion has been closed.