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My bet that Trump won’t concede – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 11 in General
imageMy bet that Trump won’t concede – politicalbetting.com

Chart from Smarkets

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Comments

  • First...like Oxford vaccine might be after all....
  • Good luck with the bet but I'd have thought it a loser, and that Trump is almost certain to have conceded before Biden's inauguration, even if he qualifies it that the election was stolen.
  • Ironically, this time last week President Trump would have been reading on pb that he had won, as Biden drifted to 5 or more on Betfair. Shame he has not looked in since.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134
    Seems like a loser since the definition of "concede" is very generous. Once the Electoral College has met I think he'll ultimately bow to the inevitable, albeit while still saying he woz robbed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,740

    First...like Oxford vaccine might be after all....

    Really?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134
    By the time they get to the end of this he's going to be trying to annul the vote due to decades of systematic disfranchisement of African Americans.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,950
    edited November 11
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,988
    Andy_JS said:
    They've only recently started on the absentee ballots, haven't they? I would expect the lead to rise meaningfully from here.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,950
    edited November 11
    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,985
    edited November 11
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    They've only recently started on the absentee ballots, haven't they? I would expect the lead to rise meaningfully from here.
    Correct. As I posted the other day, NYS is not a state that traditionally allowed widespread postal ballots: the law has been specifically and temporarily amended to accept fear of contracting Covid as an allowable reason to be granted a postal absentee ballot. Absentee ballots are counted last, and as i understand it only if the result without them is close enough that they might change it.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,985
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
  • rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Detained might be a bit strong but it is possible some occupations (or their insurance companies) might demand evidence of vaccination; perhaps even life assurance companies.

    It seems a bit premature. When the vaccine first arrives, there will not be enough for everyone anyway.
  • rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    They've only recently started on the absentee ballots, haven't they? I would expect the lead to rise meaningfully from here.
    Correct. As I posted the other day, NYS is not a state that traditionally allowed widespread postal ballots: the law has been specifically and temporarily amended to accept fear of contracting Covid as an allowable reason to be granted a postal absentee ballot. Absentee ballots are counted last, and as i understand it only if the result without them is close enough that they might change it.
    Bad news for anyone betting on a large popular vote lead.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,950
    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Are you joking?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,985
    Andy_JS said:

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Are you joking?
    No. Refusing the coronavirus vaccine without a good medical reason is the same as refusing to black out your windows during an air raid.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,985

    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    They've only recently started on the absentee ballots, haven't they? I would expect the lead to rise meaningfully from here.
    Correct. As I posted the other day, NYS is not a state that traditionally allowed widespread postal ballots: the law has been specifically and temporarily amended to accept fear of contracting Covid as an allowable reason to be granted a postal absentee ballot. Absentee ballots are counted last, and as i understand it only if the result without them is close enough that they might change it.
    Bad news for anyone betting on a large popular vote lead.
    That said, I don’t know if they are actually applying that rule this year: quite probably not due to the huge number of absentee ballots. And in any case there’s going to be lots of down-ballot races where the absentees will make a difference so they’d be scanned for all the races anyway.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134
    Purge of the military didn't move the coup-o-meter:
    https://isthisacoup.com/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    edited November 11
    Simon Marks (LBC Washington Correspondent) has just said on LBC that Trump's strategy in Georgia is to insist on the recount being done by hand.

    The idea being that if it is done by hand it may not be possible to complete the recount by the time the Electoral College meets (in each state) on 14 December.

    Who knows what would then happen but there would at least be a chance that Biden would not get Georgia's Electoral College votes. Even if Trump didn't get them either that wouldn't harm Trump as Trump's objective is just to stop Biden getting 270.
  • Andy_JS said:
    There are four of them, not three, and they are law and philosophy academics, not practising quacks. Show them a Covid patient and they would not know where to stick the leeches. Not that this is relevant to their argument but it makes you wonder how closely the tweeter read the submission before his knee jerked.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,943
    Andy_JS said:
    Don’t be silly, 100s of thousands of absentee ballots that will skew heavily Dem to count
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,943
    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Are you joking?
    No. Refusing the coronavirus vaccine without a good medical reason is the same as refusing to black out your windows during an air raid.
    Agree. If it were up to me, anyone who refuses to get the vaccine who doesn’t have a valid medical reason would stay in lockdown.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,988
    Andy_JS said:
    A few weeks ago I was told on here that - unless I was a member of a vulnerable group - then I wouldn't get the vaccine.

    Now I'm told, I won't be allowed not to get the vaccine.

    I'm confused.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    A few weeks ago I was told on here that - unless I was a member of a vulnerable group - then I wouldn't get the vaccine.

    Now I'm told, I won't be allowed not to get the vaccine.

    I'm confused.
    At first, there won't be enough vaccine to go round, so priority will be given to vulnerable groups like Old Etonians and their wives, in the same way government jobs and contracts are awarded. The select committee evidence referred to above is merely a proposal for what should happen later when there's enough vaccine to go round, plenty of it, flood the cowling!
  • rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,988

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Good luck with the bet but I'd have thought it a loser, and that Trump is almost certain to have conceded before Biden's inauguration, even if he qualifies it that the election was stolen.

    Yes, Trump has a definite talent for sh*t talking, so it seems quite likely that at some point (unless he succeeds in overturning democracy completely) he will concede in a manner which both meets the terms of the bet, and satisfies his own ego.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    These days, he’s the Catbert guy.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Not quite in the same league but I got on the Paddy Power Sportsbook bet at 1/8 that Trump won't concede before this Friday 13th. Their rules make it a great bet: Trump would have to explicitly do so in a televised broadcast.

    I suggested on here that there was fat-all chance of him doing so and as Mike has pointed out, this has proven correct. Trump is going the other way. The bet has now moved out to 1/20, which is still virtually free money imho.

    Pompeo's comments yesterday are dark and the US is headed for a crisis if this continues.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    A few weeks ago I was told on here that - unless I was a member of a vulnerable group - then I wouldn't get the vaccine.

    Now I'm told, I won't be allowed not to get the vaccine.

    I'm confused.
    I thought you lived in the US these days ?
    Or am I confused ?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Are you joking?
    No. Refusing the coronavirus vaccine without a good medical reason is the same as refusing to black out your windows during an air raid.
    This isn't the way to go. Incentivise those who take it up but don't penalise those who don't want to. I will have it, but this is an experimental technology with a super-fast programme. There are understandable reasons why some might decline.

    What I think may happen though is that it will become a requirement for international travel. Thus, don't take up the vaccine and you can't go abroad.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    And even if Trump should concede, he and his minions will have done everything in their power to hamper the incoming administration even getting to grips with basic governance.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    Pandemic overload happens in rural states, too.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Is the US heading for its second civil war?

    I'm not entirely joking.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,029
    For some reason (I'll never claim to be normal) this thread sparked an image in my brain of two blokes falling from a high cliff, the one saying to the other "I'll bet you hit the ground first".
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    Ummm: charisma free? Wife of Bill? Elitist?
    Amusing. Although you weren't exactly lauding Biden's charisma earlier in the year - apologies if I've confused you with someone else.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Are you joking?
    No. Refusing the coronavirus vaccine without a good medical reason is the same as refusing to black out your windows during an air raid.
    This isn't the way to go. Incentivise those who take it up but don't penalise those who don't want to. I will have it, but this is an experimental technology with a super-fast programme. There are understandable reasons why some might decline.

    What I think may happen though is that it will become a requirement for international travel. Thus, don't take up the vaccine and you can't go abroad.
    Yes, and perhaps for some professions. There is precedent: in Germany you have to be measles vaccinated to work as a teacher, for example (with exceptions)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    Given the strong likelihood of an effective vaccine being available for large scale vaccination early next year, it now pretty clear that the failure to keep infection rates under control has cost many thousands of lives, and will cost many thousands more over the winter.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    edited November 11
    Trump back in to 10.5.

    I've followed the debate on here over the last few days re whether Trump has any chance with interest.

    Regardless of the merits of the various points made, the big picture as far as I can see is that the process for appointing the President is highly convoluted with numerous different steps having to be taken by numerous different people.

    And the more convoluted it is, the more scope there is for jiggery pokery.

    eg As per earlier post, suppose Georgia goes for a recount and then can't finish it in time. Whether that happens or not who knows and it's probably unlikely - but it's an example of the kind of thing that might happen.

    And in that situation, Trump wouldn't need the Supreme Court to overturn the Georgia result - Georgia just wouldn't choose electors for Biden and it would then be Biden having to go to Court to get Georgia back in his column.

    Of course Trump would still then need to overturn another two states - but the point is there are all kinds of different tactics that might be deployed - and he'll use whichever tactic has the best chance depending upon the dynamics in each State - eg maybe depending upon whether there is a Republican legislature or Secretary of State or Governor. He doesn't need to use the same tactic in each State.

    And Trump doesn't necessarily need to succeed with any of his current Court actions re vote counts. If he is to succeed I think it's far more likely he does so by intervening directly with officials to take some kind of action.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Throwing your money away MikeL I'm afraid. That's not about merits it's about pragmatics.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071

    Throwing your money away MikeL I'm afraid. That's not about merits it's about pragmatics.

    I have no money invested - just observing what's going on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,950
    "The party of Mao Zedong once spoke of exporting revolution. Today’s party is intent on merely making the world safe for its brand of ethno-nationalist authoritarianism. After a dozen protesters set fire to a national flag outside the Chinese embassy in London in early October, party officials condemned their “abominable acts” of “secession and treason” for allegedly violating the new national security law.

    Since that law explicitly covers “crimes” committed anywhere on the planet, the embassy called on UK authorities to “bring the perpetrators to justice at an early date”. Less than 25 years after Prince Charles sailed out of Hong Kong harbour, China is now asserting its jurisdiction on British soil."

    https://www.ft.com/content/cfd7089d-65b5-4c50-8b8e-a037350a42d7
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    Biden just hit 77m. Lead 4.9m.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 336
    On topic. And there it is. Another attempt at catching up on sleep destroyed by panic attack Trump has four more years. The problem is my mind, in all the scenarios where Trump bad, mad enough to exploit the Red Mirage and claim victory, claim fraud, his party, and much of his vote, moves against him, not stand so solidly behind him and the BS like this maintaining his power. “Count all the votes” It’s almost like the counting and final tallies now irrelevant, they know they got the electoral college votes for another four years. My mind is out of nice scenario. Tell me a nice scenario from here.
  • gealbhan said:

    On topic. And there it is. Another attempt at catching up on sleep destroyed by panic attack Trump has four more years. The problem is my mind, in all the scenarios where Trump bad, mad enough to exploit the Red Mirage and claim victory, claim fraud, his party, and much of his vote, moves against him, not stand so solidly behind him and the BS like this maintaining his power. “Count all the votes” It’s almost like the counting and final tallies now irrelevant, they know they got the electoral college votes for another four years. My mind is out of nice scenario. Tell me a nice scenario from here.

    All I can imagine is that Mrs Trump (or someone else close) tells him to stop it or the secrets/Russian videos are disseminated
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,355
    Trump is a BS artist. Biden needs to keep playing it straight with solid defensive shots and Trumps time will run out. Biden has won the popular vote and the states he needs. The electoral college will duly meet and elect Biden. Trumps tenancy expires on 20 Jan. Trump can talk, but talk is cheap.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    And still they count. It is the ramshackle and frankly absurd American electoral system that gives Trump the leeway to mess about like this. Three states has yet to be determined by decision desk, Arizona (which has remained surprisingly close), Georgia and Alaska. In any normal democracy they would all have been determined a week ago today and we would have final results in the other 47 States as well.

    Its like this every time but surely the Americans will come to see that such a defective system requires candidates to play the game and be reasonable to make it work. If you elect a petulant child like Trump the system itself needs to be in better order.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,499

    gealbhan said:

    On topic. And there it is. Another attempt at catching up on sleep destroyed by panic attack Trump has four more years. The problem is my mind, in all the scenarios where Trump bad, mad enough to exploit the Red Mirage and claim victory, claim fraud, his party, and much of his vote, moves against him, not stand so solidly behind him and the BS like this maintaining his power. “Count all the votes” It’s almost like the counting and final tallies now irrelevant, they know they got the electoral college votes for another four years. My mind is out of nice scenario. Tell me a nice scenario from here.

    All I can imagine is that Mrs Trump (or someone else close) tells him to stop it or the secrets/Russian videos are disseminated
    According to a very reliable contact, Melania forced Donald to sign a “post-nup” during the campaign.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 336

    Is the US heading for its second civil war?

    I'm not entirely joking.

    I don’t buy the civil war thing. The only scenario I can think where chicanery Trump fiddles, annuls a few state votes and ends up with electoral college votes, the Dems don’t call people into the streets nor call on secret service or military to remove him. Any violence in the streets plays into the hands of Trump and his supporters. It needed either the election to comprehensively repudiate Trump and his almost fascist platform, which it didn’t, or for the Republican Party and its voters to stand by Biden’s win and reject Trumps BS, which they didn’t. 😕
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566
    Andy_JS said:

    "The party of Mao Zedong once spoke of exporting revolution. Today’s party is intent on merely making the world safe for its brand of ethno-nationalist authoritarianism. After a dozen protesters set fire to a national flag outside the Chinese embassy in London in early October, party officials condemned their “abominable acts” of “secession and treason” for allegedly violating the new national security law.

    Since that law explicitly covers “crimes” committed anywhere on the planet, the embassy called on UK authorities to “bring the perpetrators to justice at an early date”. Less than 25 years after Prince Charles sailed out of Hong Kong harbour, China is now asserting its jurisdiction on British soil."

    https://www.ft.com/content/cfd7089d-65b5-4c50-8b8e-a037350a42d7

    Hmm. So trying to do here what we did there 100 years ago?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_International_Settlement

    Enthusiasts for Empire not so keen to be on the receiving end 🤔
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 336
    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 32,885
    Andy_JS said:

    "The party of Mao Zedong once spoke of exporting revolution. Today’s party is intent on merely making the world safe for its brand of ethno-nationalist authoritarianism. After a dozen protesters set fire to a national flag outside the Chinese embassy in London in early October, party officials condemned their “abominable acts” of “secession and treason” for allegedly violating the new national security law.

    Since that law explicitly covers “crimes” committed anywhere on the planet, the embassy called on UK authorities to “bring the perpetrators to justice at an early date”. Less than 25 years after Prince Charles sailed out of Hong Kong harbour, China is now asserting its jurisdiction on British soil."

    https://www.ft.com/content/cfd7089d-65b5-4c50-8b8e-a037350a42d7

    Genocide is a crime covered by our laws regardless of where it is committed. I call on President Xi to bring himself to justice at an early date.
  • gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    a least the US system only gives the (winning) incumbent two terms. though I reckon Donald would have tested that if he could (and still might)........
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 336
    gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    Kayleigh McEnany is nothing more than Lady Haw Haw - and Boris and Cummings want to copy the same idea, and people on this forum think it will improve communications!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    The reason he can "pack the judiciary" is that his party controls the Senate. And it still does. McConnell is important here. If he continues to back Trump how does Biden get his cabinet approved?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,258
    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.
  • gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    The UK government's approach is to put itself beyond judicial scrutiny by removing the courts' ability to scrutinise its actions. Potentially, it is as dangerous and damaging as the US approach - and clearly a direct threat to democracy - but it is more insidious. The usual suspects, who declaim loudly about liberty, the Magna Carta and all the rest, have absolutely no problem at all with it. As you'd expect, of course.

  • The biggest check on any coup attempt in the US may well be the markets. If they see it happening, you can be pretty sure they will start to tank.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,324
    Alaska update, Biden split the first lot of mail ballots 64/36

    Better than I thought (much better) but not good enough.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,026
    Agreed, Trump won't concede. It's not in his nature to admit to failure, but also he needs to stoke the resentment and rage of his followers to retain their support for whatever comes next (Trump TV, a 2024 run, or simply staying out of jail).
    Watching concession speeches from his predecessors, it struck me that politics should be left to professional politicians, not gifted amateurs like Trump. Losing gracefully is one of the tricks of the trade that Trump would have learned along the way. The fact that he doesn't know how to do it is dangerous, since the smooth transition of power is an important characteristic of stable democracies.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,026
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    It also (mostly) only kills people beyond the age of reproduction.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
  • MikeL said:

    Biden just hit 77m. Lead 4.9m.

    52:48 then, following the immutable law of democracy.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    One other minor difference. There was, er, copious evidence of material Russian electoral interference, as backed up by numerous sources within the US intelligence community.

    Put simply, electoral interference and fraud DOES HAPPEN. The undermining and corruption of the Democratic process is once of the biggest dangers that a democracy can face. Democratic states must be eternally vigilant against this threat and must ensure that its laws are sufficient to crack down hard on signs of it happening.

    But you don’t get to justify making unfounded evidence free claims of fraud or electoral irregularities simply because another side might have made claims of irregularities (on the back of a fair degree of evidence!) in the past. That in itself only serves to undermine the democratic process.

    That Russia sought to interfere in 2016 is not disputed by most reasonable sources. The point of dispute is (or should be) the extent to which the Trump campaign was complicit in said interference.

    What the GOP are doing at the moment is far more dangerous than what happened in 2016. They are quite openly claiming, without any evidence whatsoever, that the Democrats, directly, fabricated millions of votes (with the connivance of “independent” election officials I might add - they aren’t suggesting simply that weaknesses in the system have been exploited with the election officials powerless to stop it) to steal the election. If that were really true then American democracy would actually be finished. No election could ever be accepted as fair ever again. The fundamental building block of American administration at every level would be destroyed. Permanently.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    Even typhoid Mary? There are times when the needs of the herd prevail. My reservation about whether this is such a time is that this illness is not so serious as to make the case that this is one of those times. But if people cannot get conventional treatment because their hospitals are clogged up with Covid sufferers we may well take a different view.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 4,190
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy isn`t a tiny dose of anything - it`s just water. Absolutely cannot be compared to a vaccine.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.
    Also ignores the fact that not every student has a (permanent) home to go to.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,396
    edited November 11
    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Really? Frustrating natural selection is pretty much your job description, if you think about it. Also, vaccines are pure homeopathy - take a tiny dose of the thing which does harm in the first place - and the government vaccine czar has thoughtfully warned us of the danger of freak harm from them. Broth all the way for me.
    Homeopathy isn`t a tiny dose of anything - it`s just water. Absolutely cannot be compared to a vaccine.
    That's what big pharma wants you to think.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    The other "only difference" (though the first one you mention is kind of big, seeing as people are complaining precisely about Trump not conceding and slinking away) is that there WAS Russian interference in the 2016 election (whether it made any difference is another thing), and there were multiple contacts between the Trump campaign and Russians that Trump campaign people repeatedly lied about. And Trump may yet get convicted on obstruction of justice charges on this issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626
    Alistair said:

    Alaska update, Biden split the first lot of mail ballots 64/36

    Better than I thought (much better) but not good enough.

    He us going to catch up some, but not pass in NC, OH too. Eastern Ohio looks weirdly strong for Trump compared to western PA or NW WV (In terms of swing)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.
    Also ignores the fact that not every student has a (permanent) home to go to.
    Certainly not with proper wifi and a place to study in. I am so relieved that my son was not due to go to University this year but next. I feel desperately sorry for my nephew who started his degree at Dundee this year. First time away from home out in the big bad world that should have been able to tempt him with a cornucopia of delights away from his somewhat over protective mother.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.

    Testing before students head home sounds an excellent idea (one I have been advocating for months). It doesn't mean stopping attendance, though probably good to do a re test in the first week back too.
  • felixfelix Posts: 11,178
    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    Yes - this is fraught with danger and a lack of awareness of what a UK family Xmas actually is - all locked in together for 3 days of happy families it ain't! The problem is there would be a masive public outcry if they did anything else. A classic case of heads you win and tails you lose.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,213
    edited November 11
    I see the #FBPE lot are wetting themselves over the Biden press release - ignoring the chronology already in the public domain and demonstrating ignorance of diplomatic protocol:



  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,324
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alaska update, Biden split the first lot of mail ballots 64/36

    Better than I thought (much better) but not good enough.

    He us going to catch up some, but not pass in NC, OH too. Eastern Ohio looks weirdly strong for Trump compared to western PA or NW WV (In terms of swing)
    On the basis of the first day of Alaska early voting Biden falls short by 22,000 votes.

    Biden's doing worse at early in person than I thought, and he only won the mail ballots 62/34 so far (didn't factor in 3rd parties on my first go). He needs to win the remaining mail ballots 74/22 to take the state by the whiskeriest of whiskers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Alaska update, Biden split the first lot of mail ballots 64/36

    Better than I thought (much better) but not good enough.

    He us going to catch up some, but not pass in NC, OH too. Eastern Ohio looks weirdly strong for Trump compared to western PA or NW WV (In terms of swing)
    Trump is 370k ahead in Ohio. Its not close and, along with Florida which isn't close either, is in serious danger of losing its swing state status (and all those hundreds of millions of dollars that come with that).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626
    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited November 11
    alex_ said:

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    One other minor difference. There was, er, copious evidence of material Russian electoral interference, as backed up by numerous sources within the US intelligence community.

    Put simply, electoral interference and fraud DOES HAPPEN. The undermining and corruption of the Democratic process is once of the biggest dangers that a democracy can face. Democratic states must be eternally vigilant against this threat and must ensure that its laws are sufficient to crack down hard on signs of it happening.

    But you don’t get to justify making unfounded evidence free claims of fraud or electoral irregularities simply because another side might have made claims of irregularities (on the back of a fair degree of evidence!) in the past. That in itself only serves to undermine the democratic process.

    That Russia sought to interfere in 2016 is not disputed by most reasonable sources. The point of dispute is (or should be) the extent to which the Trump campaign was complicit in said interference.

    What the GOP are doing at the moment is far more dangerous than what happened in 2016. They are quite openly claiming, without any evidence whatsoever, that the Democrats, directly, fabricated millions of votes (with the connivance of “independent” election officials I might add - they aren’t suggesting simply that weaknesses in the system have been exploited with the election officials powerless to stop it) to steal the election. If that were really true then American democracy would actually be finished. No election could ever be accepted as fair ever again. The fundamental building block of American administration at every level would be destroyed. Permanently.

    Not only that, but they're doing that in concert with firing key officials at the Pentagon and other parts of the bureaucratic machine, and calling for demonstrations. It could hardly be any more concerning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,213
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Nah, let natural selection get to work on the antivaxers.
    Doesn't quite work though, does it? Most people who refuse the vaccine will not get seriously ill but may well transmit it to more vulnerable people who might (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine).

    It's also the case that the death toll from this virus is still well short of 0.1% of the population. I have no doubt it will exceed 0.1% eventually, possibly even reach 0.2% depending the speed with which a vaccine can be distributed, but the black death or Ebola this isn't.
    We don't yet know if the vaccine prevents transmission.

    Compulsion goes against the principle of consent. People are allowed to make bad decisions.
    And should they, themselves have to live with the consequences of their bad decisions, or do we all have to?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    gealbhan said:

    One thing that does stand out, the US system where a president who never won a popular vote can pack out the judiciary in such a partisan way, and the American way of doing a civil service with partisan appointments, the more bent the appointer the more bent the appointee, is absolute anti democratic rubbish that doesn’t allow for smooth transitions of power at all and for UK now to be copying it is just insane.

    The UK government's approach is to put itself beyond judicial scrutiny by removing the courts' ability to scrutinise its actions. Potentially, it is as dangerous and damaging as the US approach - and clearly a direct threat to democracy - but it is more insidious. The usual suspects, who declaim loudly about liberty, the Magna Carta and all the rest, have about solutely no problem at all with it. As you'd expect, of course.

    When looking at the US people spend far too much time focussing on the big ticket items. Control of Congress, the Presidency, the Supreme Court. It is the hidden lower profile appointments where the making of political appointments, especially where the “political” goes beyond mere “political leanings” but into the area of dogmatic ideology and personal loyalty, that is where the danger lies. Putting Trump loyalists in the lower courts. In lower level civil service positions with state protections against dismissal. Etc etc.

    Biden can find a way to work with Congress. And the Supreme Court whilst slanted, is still high profile enough that they have to pay attention to the law.

    But if people below the surface are working day in day out to frustrate the administration, to spread inaccurate or withold crucial information etc etc. It’s very difficult to work against that. That is why in the aftermath of long-standing dictatorships there often needs to be a purging of administration at every level, a long and difficult process. Obviously America isn’t quite at that point - Trump hasn’t been around long enough. But I think it’s easy to underestimate just how much damage may already have been done (and can still be done - in the next couple of months if he starts an accelerated programme of firings and appointments). Biden is going to have to spend most of his first year reversing all this - this is a reason why those Georgia seats are so important.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.

    Testing before students head home sounds an excellent idea (one I have been advocating for months). It doesn't mean stopping attendance, though probably good to do a re test in the first week back too.
    Agree about the testing. I was concerned about the requirement that all Universities should have their teaching fully online by 9th December. If that is the way of it what's the point in going back? My nephew currently gets 1 practical tutorial in person a week. The rest of his lectures are all online. If the tutorial goes he may as well save his money and be at home rather than trapped in a student flat with 4 beautiful young women from Dublin (actually, let me think about that a bit).
  • kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Biden looked doddery even then...... I'm really not sure he's going to make the distance,
    Trump was elected in 2016 because he wasn't Clinton.
    Biden was elected in 2020 because he wasn't Trump.
    And the big difference between Clinton and Biden?

    Politically they were both top members of Obamas administration. If Biden had run in 2016 his program would have been similar to Clinton's.

    Clinton probably has a better record than Biden, though for sure both can be criticised.

    Scandals : Clinton used the Clinton private server for government emails - which broke rules and reflects badly on her, but nowhere near as bad as the (admittedly fairly run of the mill) Hunter Biden influence peddling.

    Clinton was a bit younger.

    So I'm wondering what the big disadvantage Clinton had as a candidate. Can't think of any other blindingly obvious differences between them.


    Except for the obvious....
    The obvious being that Clinton insulted voters calling them deplorables and didn't bother to.campaign in the Midwest and narrowly lost it? While Biden was born and bred in the Midwest, designed his whole campaign at winning the Midwest, camped out at the Midwest campaigning there and narrowly won the Midwest?

    That obvious difference? Is that what you're talking about?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Good morning everyone. To be fair to Trump, every Democrat and their dog, plus quite a lot of people on here having been banging on for four years that the 2016 election was corrupted in some way, probably by Putin.
    The only difference is that Mrs Clinton conceded and slunk away.

    How many Democrats actually challenged the outcome of the election itself, though ?
    The cases are entirely different, so your ‘to be fair’ isn’t.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,490

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rpjs said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC Radio Five Live is currently hosting a phone-in show about whether or not people should be "obliged" to take the Covid-19 vaccine. One person phoning the programme has called for people who refuse to take it to be "detained".

    Sounds fair enough to me.
    Are you joking?
    No. Refusing the coronavirus vaccine without a good medical reason is the same as refusing to black out your windows during an air raid.
    This isn't the way to go. Incentivise those who take it up but don't penalise those who don't want to. I will have it, but this is an experimental technology with a super-fast programme. There are understandable reasons why some might decline.

    What I think may happen though is that it will become a requirement for international travel. Thus, don't take up the vaccine and you can't go abroad.
    ISTM there may be a pay-off for younger & healthier people in the vaccine going to the vulnerable and elderly first. If there are any long-term effects hiding in the woodwork, my guess is they should show up more rapidly in that demographic. I signed up for vaccine trials so that risk is one I'm prepared to take. In fact I see that risk to myself as an investment in young people.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626
    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    Makes Trump's performance look even worse
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    Pulpstar said:

    My GOP to win the house bet is going to end up closer than it should have. Much closer.

    I find the House map fascinating: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

    Its almost a sea of red with strips of blue where significant numbers of people actually live. Its a vivid demonstration of how the US is divided and how little common ground there is.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,561
    So today is 11/11 - a big day in Cologne as it is the first day of carnival season, and usually there's lots of parties and dressing up in costumes etc. The city has put up lots of posters telling people not to party, my feeling is most people are following that advice. Anyway all the bars and clubs are closed. Plus it's raining. People are pretty gloomy.

    It's also St Martin's day - usually a very big day for children, who all make lanterns and carry them in parades once it gets dark to bonfires where someone plays St Martin, who is celebrated for cutting half of his cloak and giving it to a cold beggar. Not happening this year. Though schools are doing little things within classes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    Student gets home ‘hi mum, dad lend us twenty I’m meeting my school mates, give gran a hug see you Xmas Eve.

    The latest on this is very messy: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54887526

    Students are going to be given travel windows in which to get home after testing. Universities are then to go entirely online so it appears that they won't be going back after the holidays. It looks to me as if the government has effectively abandoned students being at Universities on the basis that it is impossible to get the R rate down enough with them working at college or University.

    And their education is going to hell in a handcart because of a disease that will seriously affect very, very few of them.

    Testing before students head home sounds an excellent idea (one I have been advocating for months). It doesn't mean stopping attendance, though probably good to do a re test in the first week back too.
    Agree about the testing. I was concerned about the requirement that all Universities should have their teaching fully online by 9th December. If that is the way of it what's the point in going back? My nephew currently gets 1 practical tutorial in person a week. The rest of his lectures are all online. If the tutorial goes he may as well save his money and be at home rather than trapped in a student flat with 4 beautiful young women from Dublin (actually, let me think about that a bit).
    Fox jr2 is at Uni in London, with his course nearly entirely on line, but much happier living with friends than at home in Leicester to do so.

    There are always going to be some dipsticks, but most students are going to want to be careful of their families, and grandparents in particular.
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