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As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House –

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  • I just don't understand why there's still over a hundred grand available to back Biden at 1.07 still on Betfair. The writing is on the wall now.

    This is a situation where I'd be drawing down cash on my credit card to soak that all up, if the shysters in Government hadn't banned it.

    It makes no sense to me either but I'm about maxed out now and, frankly, a little exhausted. I am however savouring Trump's slow demise. Naturally I would have preferred to see him eviscerated but this slow death is curiously satifying.

    Appeals to the sadist in me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited November 2020
    Electoral college bias between 269 & 270 may well turn out to be significant, overall looks like it'll be around 3% in favour of Trump to me. 3.8% nationally perhaps


    AK 217 Trump
    NC 232 Trump

    ------
    GA 248 0.1%
    AZ 259 0.5% ?
    WI 269 0.6%
    PA 289 1% ?
    MI 285 2.9%
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, at the moment it does look like Biden will be President elect, the question is now merely about his margin of victory.

    If confirmed it will be a historic feat he has achieved, only the second presidential candidate alongside Ronald Reagan since 1900 to defeat an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House

    How is Trafalgar doing?
    Mixed, they forecast the winner right in Texas, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio and Iowa and likely North Carolina in their final polls, they called the winner wrong in Michigan and likely Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and maybe Georgia
    538
    Correct: Texas Wisconsin Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Nebraska 2 and likely Arizona, Nevada and Penn,
    Wrong: Florida, Maine2 and likely North Carolina,
    Still too close is Georgia (prediction was a very close Dem win).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, at the moment it does look like Biden will be President elect, the question is now merely about his margin of victory.

    If confirmed it will be a historic feat he has achieved, only the second presidential candidate alongside Ronald Reagan since 1900 to defeat an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House

    How is Trafalgar doing?
    In all fairness to @HYUFD he has conceded that point a while ago I think.

    The deep irony of it is that if he had trusted his own instincts and techniques and simply added the undecideds to Trump he'd be by far the richest punter on PB right now.
    My final forecast was 269 269, I said Biden would win Michigan and Arizona unlike Trafalgar in my final forecast, I was likely still wrong but not a million miles off the final result either
    Both the popular vote and electoral college are going to finish with clear wins for Biden, broadly comparable with previous victories for previous presidents. If that was in your forecast I apologise for missing it.
    I always said Biden would win the popular vote, currently he is 2.8% ahead in the national popular vote, that would be a narrower win than Obama's popular vote lead in 2008 and 2012, Clinton's in 1992 and 1996, Reagan's in 1980 and 1984 and Bush Snr's in 1988 and Nixon's in 1972 and LBJ's in 1964 and IKE's in 1952 and 1956 and Truman's in 1948 and every one of FDR's victories.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map

    So it would actually be a smaller margin of victory than for most previous Presidents, in fact closest to the 2% popular vote win Carter had over Ford in 1976 and Bush had over Kerry in 2004.

    A clear Biden win but certainly not the landslide for Biden some predicted
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    What do the Dutch do?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54828544

    Traditionally, it's put down to the fact they tend to eat a diet high in dairy, but is it really just that?

    One thing I do know: virtually everyone Dutch I've ever met is bloody tall.

    Lots of milk, cheese and butter in early years diets is the key aiui. The whole butter is bad fad has been extremely damaging, margarine is disgusting and unhealthy.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    It's going to be a big test of Johnson seeing if he will congratulate Biden whilst Trump continues to rail and refuse to concede...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    I`ve been looking into beekeeping too. The thing that puts me off is that there`s a lot to learn and I`m not interested in the honey (too many calories ruin the figure).

    As a first step, I`ve tried a bumble bee box (which is great except wax moths are a nuisance). You get sent a bunch of bees every spring. And I`ve now alighted on the joys of "keeping" solitary bees. Check out the link below:

    https://nurturing-nature.co.uk/product/award-winning-solitary-bee-observation-nest-box/

    I have about 50 solitary bee cocoons (Red Masons) this year which I am overwintering for release in April.

    The Nurturing Nature website is run by George Pilkington, a biologist. He`s really helpful - very approachable. I recommend his website highly.

    I have several solitary bee homes. They are fantastic to watch in the summer sunshine. Such activity. Lots of variety in size and whether using mud or leaves to seal the holes. And you can get right up to them to watch.

    Had a small invasion of masonry bee's in the house but just let them crawl on to my hand and blew them out of the door.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    DeClare said:

    Backing Biden on Betfair is free money now, people laying him haven't read the rules properly, it's the 'projected winner' and Biden will be confirmed the projected winner within hours, the outcome of court cases etc etc don't count.

    It’s their biggest ever market.

    If I were bf I’d let it run until all the shenanigans are done. Why should they take the risk?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I just don't understand why there's still over a hundred grand available to back Biden at 1.07 still on Betfair. The writing is on the wall now.

    This is a situation where I'd be drawing down cash on my credit card to soak that all up, if the shysters in Government hadn't banned it.

    It makes no sense to me either but I'm about maxed out now and, frankly, a little exhausted. I am however savouring Trump's slow demise. Naturally I would have preferred to see him eviscerated but this slow death is curiously satifying.

    Appeals to the sadist in me.
    Yes watching it slip away from him is very satisfying. Even better since he's the one who undermined trust in the postal voting system among his own supporters costing him victories in GA, AZ and PA at the very least.
  • alex_ said:

    It's going to be a big test of Johnson seeing if he will congratulate Biden whilst Trump continues to rail and refuse to concede...

    It’s not a test at all. The instant Biden declares victory there’ll be an unseemly race for all world leaders to ring him and disavow the other guy. Boris isn’t even particularly loyal to his mates, never mind useful idiots like Trump.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    To put it in a way that GOPers may understand: All votes matter!

    I wouldn't go that far, all legal votes matter. Postal votes are legal so they matter.

    I still don't understand Trump's tirade against postal voting, it's cost him Georgia, AZ, and possibly PA too.

    Discouraging people from voting seems like such a stupid strategy to win an election.
    And with it, the election. If he'd taken those three, he'd have won.

    Hoist by his own petard. Lovely thought.
    Yes, it's actually brilliant. It's crazy how close he came to winning, if he'd fired up his base to swamp the postal vote system as well as those who wanted to vote in person I think he'd have won. There will have been enough voters in thre states who didn't vote in person but would have voted by post if they trusted the system and Trump didn't undermine its legitimacy. People voting for Biden would still have voted for Biden by post or in person, he only discouraged his own supporters. Truly he is an idiot.
    Earlier on, there was a discussion of whether Trump-Biden was like the hare and the tortoise.
    A better analogy would be Whacky Races, with Trump as Dick Dastardly.
  • DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Is one actually allowed to be a Republican in California? It certainly guarantees social ridicule but I'm not sure it's completely illegal.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2020
    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    I`ve been looking into beekeeping too. The thing that puts me off is that there`s a lot to learn and I`m not interested in the honey (too many calories ruin the figure).

    As a first step, I`ve tried a bumble bee box (which is great except wax moths are a nuisance). You get sent a bunch of bees every spring. And I`ve now alighted on the joys of "keeping" solitary bees. Check out the link below:

    https://nurturing-nature.co.uk/product/award-winning-solitary-bee-observation-nest-box/

    I have about 50 solitary bee cocoons (Red Masons) this year which I am overwintering for release in April.

    The Nurturing Nature website is run by George Pilkington, a biologist. He`s really helpful - very approachable. I recommend his website highly.

    I have several solitary bee homes. They are fantastic to watch in the summer sunshine. Such activity. Lots of variety in size and whether using mud or leaves to seal the holes. And you can get right up to them to watch.

    Had a small invasion of masonry bee's in the house but just let them crawl on to my hand and blew them out of the door.
    I have two units for the fancy bee box that I provided a link to. The spring unit is for red masons and the summer unit for the leafcutter bees. There are approx 200 species of solitary bee in the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    alex_ said:

    It's going to be a big test of Johnson seeing if he will congratulate Biden whilst Trump continues to rail and refuse to concede...

    Protocol requires that Boris will only speak to Biden to congratulate him once his EC victory is conformed
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    alex_ said:

    It's going to be a big test of Johnson seeing if he will congratulate Biden whilst Trump continues to rail and refuse to concede...

    Nah, Boris isn't stupid. As soon as Biden is across the line the phonecall will be scheduled and it will be a race to be ahead of Macron, Merkel and the new Japanese PM.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    To put it in a way that GOPers may understand: All votes matter!

    I wouldn't go that far, all legal votes matter. Postal votes are legal so they matter.

    I still don't understand Trump's tirade against postal voting, it's cost him Georgia, AZ, and possibly PA too.

    Discouraging people from voting seems like such a stupid strategy to win an election.
    And with it, the election. If he'd taken those three, he'd have won.

    Hoist by his own petard. Lovely thought.
    Yes, it's actually brilliant. It's crazy how close he came to winning, if he'd fired up his base to swamp the postal vote system as well as those who wanted to vote in person I think he'd have won. There will have been enough voters in thre states who didn't vote in person but would have voted by post if they trusted the system and Trump didn't undermine its legitimacy. People voting for Biden would still have voted for Biden by post or in person, he only discouraged his own supporters. Truly he is an idiot.
    Earlier on, there was a discussion of whether Trump-Biden was like the hare and the tortoise.
    A better analogy would be Whacky Races, with Trump as Dick Dastardly.
    Dick Dastardly. who was always fast enough to get miles ahead but decided to stop and set a trap rather than just carrying on.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Because Georgia has turned blue we should probably be circumspect over assuming the runoffs will favour the GOP. They may not, especially if the Republican Party is tearing into itself, as seems more than probable. A vitriolic, chaotic and, frankly, bonkers exit by Trump might cost the Republicans the Senate.

    NB. I still favour them to hold it but it's no shoo in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited November 2020

    This could be really really serious...Wuhan but worse.

    Mutated coronavirus found in Danish mink has now spread to more than 200 people

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8920593/Mutated-coronavirus-Danish-mink-spread-214-people-lockdown-announced.html

    Posted a link to the BBC article last night!
    I know. I for one was hoping it was some kind of joke.
    As one expert noted, this kind of story hits the scary button and hence overblown fears. There is no reason, some experts say, why virus adaptation in animal species of a virus already quite prevalent in human populations should result in a virus more adapted to humans than those strains already in humans.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/05/spread-of-mutated-coronavirus-in-danish-mink-hits-all-the-scary-buttons-but-fears-may-be-overblown/

    As a general principle, I think that is true. But not absolutely so. The reason this virus infects a wide range of very disparate mammals, from bats to pangolins to mink to cats to humans, is that it binds to the ACE-2 receptor that is found in all these species. So, while accepting the general premise of the cited experts on viral evolution, in this case an adaptation of the virus' spike protein to make it bind more efficiently to the ACE-2 receptor of mink might well, indeed, impact the efficiency of the virus' transmission in human population. And the high density of individual minks in these farms without social distancing or specialized ventilation probably does encourage a faster rate of viral evolution than would occur in human populations:

    https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22311

    PS And mink are the preferred animal model for other human respiratory diseases such as the flu. Indeed, Ron Fouchier did his controversial gain of function flu research on mink
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    It's going to be a big test of Johnson seeing if he will congratulate Biden whilst Trump continues to rail and refuse to concede...

    Nah, Boris isn't stupid. As soon as Biden is across the line the phonecall will be scheduled and it will be a race to be ahead of Macron, Merkel and the new Japanese PM.
    Johnson and Biden have never met. Biden won't be in a hurry to alter that. Johnson will be made to wait his turn.

    Biden values the Northern Ireland peace process above all else in dealing with the UK for which he will have huge support in the Senate.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,481
    MaxPB said:

    What do the Dutch do?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54828544

    Traditionally, it's put down to the fact they tend to eat a diet high in dairy, but is it really just that?

    One thing I do know: virtually everyone Dutch I've ever met is bloody tall.

    Lots of milk, cheese and butter in early years diets is the key aiui. The whole butter is bad fad has been extremely damaging, margarine is disgusting and unhealthy.
    Agree massively, but I think it's also historically because of the quality of the dairy itself. My theory is that because so much of Holland is reclaimed from the sea, the soil that resulted was full of nutrients and minerals - that equals great nourishing produce, nourished cows, great dairy etc.

    I read a Dumas novel set in The Netherlands where he speaks about the amazing food production there where they produced double the amount of food they needed (at that time). That indicates fertile soil producing nourishing food.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Trump's crusade against postal voting is like those oddball Tories who want to do away with it here despite postal voting being used by Tory voters more than any other party.

    I seriously can't get over just how plainly stupid Trump is. I can't believe that any election strategist would sign off on a strategy that told your own supporters not to vote.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Biden leads in Pennsylvania
  • They have had a couple of very high profile republican governors in the not too distant past: both big film stars which might have helped.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    CNN - Biden leads in PA 5,587 lead
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Cross over
  • C.R.O.S.S.O.V.E.R
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,481

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    It's going to be a big test of Johnson seeing if he will congratulate Biden whilst Trump continues to rail and refuse to concede...

    Nah, Boris isn't stupid. As soon as Biden is across the line the phonecall will be scheduled and it will be a race to be ahead of Macron, Merkel and the new Japanese PM.
    Johnson and Biden have never met. Biden won't be in a hurry to alter that. Johnson will be made to wait his turn.

    Biden values the Northern Ireland peace process above all else in dealing with the UK for which he will have huge support in the Senate.
    Good, I'm thrilled. We have a trade surplus with the US (something that Trump was apparently very annoyed by), we neither need nor should want a trade deal with them. Back of the queue suits me just fine.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    CBS - Trump will not concede regardless.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020
    Why do Fox News still have Trump £70k ahead in Pennsylvania???

    Edit: Correction - confused with North Carolina.
  • It's all over, this will be a decisive victory of possibly over 300
  • DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Is one actually allowed to be a Republican in California? It certainly guarantees social ridicule but I'm not sure it's completely illegal.
    Some of the remaining Republicans have been leaving California for Texas and Idaho. It is now looking likely that California will lose an electoral vote at the coming redistribution for the first time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    I just don't understand why there's still over a hundred grand available to back Biden at 1.07 still on Betfair. The writing is on the wall now.

    This is a situation where I'd be drawing down cash on my credit card to soak that all up, if the shysters in Government hadn't banned it.

    It makes no sense to me either but I'm about maxed out now and, frankly, a little exhausted. I am however savouring Trump's slow demise. Naturally I would have preferred to see him eviscerated but this slow death is curiously satifying.

    Appeals to the sadist in me.
    Same here. I wanted to see him hammered, but this is more satisfying.

    I am not vindictive, but I never want to see this type of damage and risk to the most powerful country in the world again. So I want to see him humiliated, prosecuted and sent to prison. Ditto to some of those who facilitated him.
  • MaxPB said:

    Trump's crusade against postal voting is like those oddball Tories who want to do away with it here despite postal voting being used by Tory voters more than any other party.

    I seriously can't get over just how plainly stupid Trump is. I can't believe that any election strategist would sign off on a strategy that told your own supporters not to vote.

    When was the last time anyone said "No Mr Trump, you shouldn't do that" and survived?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Highly amusing. Fox ignores Biden taking lead in Pennsylvania - having discussions about Trump's great strides with minority voters!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Is one actually allowed to be a Republican in California? It certainly guarantees social ridicule but I'm not sure it's completely illegal.
    Rural California yes, LA and San Francisco now probably not
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Those postal vote % numbers are just incredible Always going to be really high but nearly 90% from Philly in that batch. I guess we are looking 60-80K lead maybe>?
  • eristdoof said:

    MaxPB said:

    This could be really really serious...Wuhan but worse.

    Mutated coronavirus found in Danish mink has now spread to more than 200 people

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8920593/Mutated-coronavirus-Danish-mink-spread-214-people-lockdown-announced.html

    Denmark = Nuke Zone.
    Don't give Trump any ideas. We've got 2 more months of the great tantrum to endure.
    I reckon the military changed the neuclear codes on Tuesday quarding against the eventuality that Trump goes crazy.
    Yup, at this point any career official who gets told to do something stupid by Trump will just say "Yes, Mr President" then ignore it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Fox breaking the crossover in PA
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    DeClare said:

    Backing Biden on Betfair is free money now, people laying him haven't read the rules properly, it's the 'projected winner' and Biden will be confirmed the projected winner within hours, the outcome of court cases etc etc don't count.

    That’s arguable under the rules
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    Fox breaking the crossover in PA

    They look devastated.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    It's all over, this will be a decisive victory of possibly over 300

    For me AZ is the only question mark, Im sure even a recount in GA wont flip it back. So for me 295 or 306 final for Biden. My projection was 291 but I'd prefer the higher one, the more he gets EV and NV the more impotent Trump will be.
  • JACK_W said:

    CNN - Biden leads in PA 5,587 lead

    Stop the count!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Sic semper tyrannis.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.

    Decision Desk guy on live now.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Would expect the stations to call PA very soon, maybe one more batch of votes but cant be far off, the mail vote % is so high in many places still with votes left Trumps at the bottom of the ocean there already.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
    Nobody on here admitted they got a Biden landslide wrong bar a few honourable exceptions like Peter the Punter and Anobazina so I am damned if I am going to say I was wrong because it was a slightly larger Biden win than the neck and neck result I forecast, I may not have got it spot on but I was not miles out is all I will say
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Someone is on their way to Camp David. Military helicopters just went overhead
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    alex_ said:

    Biden leads in Pennsylvania

    1.01!
  • CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.

    Decision Desk guy on live now.

    Someone needs to go first. They have been saying literally for *days* on CNN that Biden will carry off the remaining PA vote tally. So get on with it guys!

    Or is there going to be a Tapper / Cooper / Blitzer fight offstage as to who gets to announce it...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    This could be really really serious...Wuhan but worse.

    Mutated coronavirus found in Danish mink has now spread to more than 200 people

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8920593/Mutated-coronavirus-Danish-mink-spread-214-people-lockdown-announced.html

    Those poor mink in the photo
    Yeah, the faster we can get away from farming animals like this the better.
    We share the world with them, it is as much theirs as ours. Obviously we have to look after ourselves, but I think we are taking the piss now
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    It's going to be very amusing if Fox News calls the race imminently whilst their Trump supporting morning flagwavers are trying to argue he's still in it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    I just don't understand why there's still over a hundred grand available to back Biden at 1.07 still on Betfair. The writing is on the wall now.

    This is a situation where I'd be drawing down cash on my credit card to soak that all up, if the shysters in Government hadn't banned it.

    It makes no sense to me either but I'm about maxed out now and, frankly, a little exhausted. I am however savouring Trump's slow demise. Naturally I would have preferred to see him eviscerated but this slow death is curiously satifying.

    Appeals to the sadist in me.
    You answer your own question. Punters in the know are maxed out and exhausted. Meanwhile the money from Trump backers sits on the table
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Has ME-2 been called yet?
  • I just don't understand why there's still over a hundred grand available to back Biden at 1.07 still on Betfair. The writing is on the wall now.

    This is a situation where I'd be drawing down cash on my credit card to soak that all up, if the shysters in Government hadn't banned it.

    Yesterday showed another example of people not understanding this market with the price moves on Kamala Harris.

    I reckon the current Biden price is a further example of gamblers thinking this is th next POTUS market.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Just texted the wife "Biden in the lead in PA" My iPhone autocorrected it to "Behind in the lead in PA" Sounds about right for this election ...
  • CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.

    Decision Desk guy on live now.

    Someone needs to go first. They have been saying literally for *days* on CNN that Biden will carry off the remaining PA vote tally. So get on with it guys!

    Or is there going to be a Tapper / Cooper / Blitzer fight offstage as to who gets to announce it...
    CNN have not called Arizona yet, so it is "safe" for them to call PA.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes, at the moment it does look like Biden will be President elect, the question is now merely about his margin of victory.

    If confirmed it will be a historic feat he has achieved, only the second presidential candidate alongside Ronald Reagan since 1900 to defeat an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House

    How is Trafalgar doing?
    In all fairness to @HYUFD he has conceded that point a while ago I think.

    The deep irony of it is that if he had trusted his own instincts and techniques and simply added the undecideds to Trump he'd be by far the richest punter on PB right now.
    My final forecast was 269 269, I said Biden would win Michigan and Arizona unlike Trafalgar in my final forecast, I was likely still wrong but not a million miles off the final result either
    Both the popular vote and electoral college are going to finish with clear wins for Biden, broadly comparable with previous victories for previous presidents. If that was in your forecast I apologise for missing it.
    I always said Biden would win the popular vote, currently he is 2.8% ahead in the national popular vote, that would be a narrower win than Obama's popular vote lead in 2008 and 2012, Clinton's in 1992 and 1996, Reagan's in 1980 and 1984 and Bush Snr's in 1988 and Nixon's in 1972 and LBJ's in 1964 and IKE's in 1952 and 1956 and Truman's in 1948 and every one of FDR's victories.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map

    So it would actually be a smaller margin of victory than for most previous Presidents, in fact closest to the 2% popular vote win Carter had over Ford in 1976 and Bush had over Kerry in 2004.

    A clear Biden win but certainly not the landslide for Biden some predicted
    Others can defend their forecasts. I don’t recall you forecasting a “clear Biden win”.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Alistair said:
    Maybe John King at CNN will retire soon , a job beckons for you :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
    Nobody on here admitted they got a Biden landslide wrong bar a few honourable exceptions like Peter the Punter and Anobazina so I am damned if I am going to say I was wrong because it was a slightly larger Biden win than the neck and neck result I forecast, I may not have got it spot on but I was not miles out is all I will say
    Well said. Biden's margin to get over 270 will be under a couple of %. You were far closer than those of us on Democrat twitter koolaid predicting a landslide :)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Has ME-2 been called yet?

    Not yet though its trending Trump so with that 1 does he still have a path? :) please no one take that seriously,,,,
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    JACK_W said:

    CNN - Biden leads in PA 5,587 lead

    Stop the count!
    CAPS LOCK malfunction!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pennsylvania was still 1.1 10 mins ago. The call has put it to 1.03.

    Political bettors are totally mental.

    I never thought we'd see better short odds than Clinton most votes but there we are.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited November 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
    Nobody on here admitted they got a Biden landslide wrong bar a few honourable exceptions like Peter the Punter and Anobazina so I am damned if I am going to say I was wrong because it was a slightly larger Biden win than the neck and neck result I forecast, I may not have got it spot on but I was not miles out is all I will say
    Well said. Biden's margin to get over 270 will be under a couple of %. You were far closer than those of us on Democrat twitter koolaid predicting a landslide :)
    I admitted it immediately, and more than once. I guess that makes me (a) Nobody
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    FOX DROPPING TRUMP LIKE A STONE

    It's all over guys.

    It's all over.
  • A new dawn has broken, has it not?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    I need to get hold of that pan you can drive your truck over, before Fox goes under.

    Who among us hasn’t forgetfully left their frying pan out in the street and then rushed out panicking that some heavy vehicle might have run over it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Mrs BJO has requisitioned the TV after a week of CNN

    Cant even send her shopping
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
    Nobody on here admitted they got a Biden landslide wrong bar a few honourable exceptions like Peter the Punter and Anobazina so I am damned if I am going to say I was wrong because it was a slightly larger Biden win than the neck and neck result I forecast, I may not have got it spot on but I was not miles out is all I will say
    Well said. Biden's margin to get over 270 will be under a couple of %. You were far closer than those of us on Democrat twitter koolaid predicting a landslide :)
    I admitted it immediately, and more than once. I guess that makes me (a) Nobody
    I projected 291 do I get a pass?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    My prediction was 416 :D
  • Trump tweet incoming in 5....4....3....2....1
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.

    Decision Desk guy on live now.

    Someone needs to go first. They have been saying literally for *days* on CNN that Biden will carry off the remaining PA vote tally. So get on with it guys!

    Or is there going to be a Tapper / Cooper / Blitzer fight offstage as to who gets to announce it...
    CNN have not called Arizona yet, so it is "safe" for them to call PA.
    Direction of travel
  • Mrs BJO has requisitioned the TV after a week of CNN

    Cant even send her shopping

    Watch online?

    https://edition.cnn.com/specials/live-cnni-uk
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Pulpstar said:

    My prediction was 416 :D

    412
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    To put it in a way that GOPers may understand: All votes matter!

    I wouldn't go that far, all legal votes matter. Postal votes are legal so they matter.

    I still don't understand Trump's tirade against postal voting, it's cost him Georgia, AZ, and possibly PA too.

    Discouraging people from voting seems like such a stupid strategy to win an election.
    And with it, the election. If he'd taken those three, he'd have won.

    Hoist by his own petard. Lovely thought.
    Yes, it's actually brilliant. It's crazy how close he came to winning, if he'd fired up his base to swamp the postal vote system as well as those who wanted to vote in person I think he'd have won. There will have been enough voters in thre states who didn't vote in person but would have voted by post if they trusted the system and Trump didn't undermine its legitimacy. People voting for Biden would still have voted for Biden by post or in person, he only discouraged his own supporters. Truly he is an idiot.
    Earlier on, there was a discussion of whether Trump-Biden was like the hare and the tortoise.
    A better analogy would be Whacky Races, with Trump as Dick Dastardly.
    The image I can’t forget is John Cleese in Clockwise, the teacher thrashing his own car with the branch of a tree as he mentally breaks down. Reality catches up with most of the deluded, given time.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Nate Silver reckons Biden's lead in Pennsylvania will be about 3 points.

    Now he tells us!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited November 2020
    My take is only likely free recount will be GA

    PA/WI/AZ/NV all too wide a margin

    Trumpians may have deep pockets I am all for emptying them if they wish to fight a futile fight,
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    I`ve been looking into beekeeping too. The thing that puts me off is that there`s a lot to learn and I`m not interested in the honey (too many calories ruin the figure).

    As a first step, I`ve tried a bumble bee box (which is great except wax moths are a nuisance). You get sent a bunch of bees every spring. And I`ve now alighted on the joys of "keeping" solitary bees. Check out the link below:

    https://nurturing-nature.co.uk/product/award-winning-solitary-bee-observation-nest-box/

    I have about 50 solitary bee cocoons (Red Masons) this year which I am overwintering for release in April.

    The Nurturing Nature website is run by George Pilkington, a biologist. He`s really helpful - very approachable. I recommend his website highly.

    I have several solitary bee homes. They are fantastic to watch in the summer sunshine. Such activity. Lots of variety in size and whether using mud or leaves to seal the holes. And you can get right up to them to watch.

    Had a small invasion of masonry bee's in the house but just let them crawl on to my hand and blew them out of the door.
    I have two units for the fancy bee box that I provided a link to. The spring unit is for red masons and the summer unit for the leafcutter bees. There are approx 200 species of solitary bee in the UK.
    They look impressive. Impressive price as well! I just have simple ones hanging from my walls plus sometime ago I built a mammal house using old pallets and filled with various attractive stuff for mammals to nest in (see internet) As part of that I included several logs with various sized holes drilled in them for the bees.
  • CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.

    Decision Desk guy on live now.

    Someone needs to go first. They have been saying literally for *days* on CNN that Biden will carry off the remaining PA vote tally. So get on with it guys!

    Or is there going to be a Tapper / Cooper / Blitzer fight offstage as to who gets to announce it...
    CNN have not called Arizona yet, so it is "safe" for them to call PA.
    No, without AZ Biden is on 253 and PA is 20 EV
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    National Defence Airspace pit over Biden home!
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    FOX DROPPING TRUMP LIKE A STONE

    It's all over guys.

    It's all over.

    I think the crap hes been spewing both in the presser and on twitter is really alienating a lot of Rs, not only does he sound childish and having temper tantrums but he is clearly for all to see showing how he puts his own selfish interests before his country and disrespecting the cornerstone of US democracy. Its pathetic, I'm sorry
  • Biden has re-built the blue wall.

    Keir, you're up next!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
    Nobody on here admitted they got a Biden landslide wrong bar a few honourable exceptions like Peter the Punter and Anobazina so I am damned if I am going to say I was wrong because it was a slightly larger Biden win than the neck and neck result I forecast, I may not have got it spot on but I was not miles out is all I will say
    I did think he might get a landslide but if you recall, on many many occasions thatI said I didn't think buying him at 311 represented good value. The real acid test is what people do with their money. I made some mistakes: Barbara Bollier was the worst. Statewide Florida too. Otherwise it has been a good election for me and buying at 262 ECVs in the early hours of election night, against the trend and the market, has turned into one of my most profitable ever bets.

    My view was that Biden would win comfortably. He has. It only doesn't look that way because of the way the votes have been counted but he will have won a clear outright victory with over 300 ECVs to c. 230 and a good 5% national lead.

    The other thing that took the shine slightly off Biden's thrilling success is that Republican senators outperformed Trump. Quite something for a sitting President and, though I need to test this theory, unusual I believe. I'd love to know how often it has happened. It's usually the other way around.

    Trump was the liability that cost the Republicans the 2020 Presidency.
  • IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    To put it in a way that GOPers may understand: All votes matter!

    I wouldn't go that far, all legal votes matter. Postal votes are legal so they matter.

    I still don't understand Trump's tirade against postal voting, it's cost him Georgia, AZ, and possibly PA too.

    Discouraging people from voting seems like such a stupid strategy to win an election.
    And with it, the election. If he'd taken those three, he'd have won.

    Hoist by his own petard. Lovely thought.
    Yes, it's actually brilliant. It's crazy how close he came to winning, if he'd fired up his base to swamp the postal vote system as well as those who wanted to vote in person I think he'd have won. There will have been enough voters in thre states who didn't vote in person but would have voted by post if they trusted the system and Trump didn't undermine its legitimacy. People voting for Biden would still have voted for Biden by post or in person, he only discouraged his own supporters. Truly he is an idiot.
    Earlier on, there was a discussion of whether Trump-Biden was like the hare and the tortoise.
    A better analogy would be Whacky Races, with Trump as Dick Dastardly.
    The image I can’t forget is John Cleese in Clockwise, the teacher thrashing his own car with the branch of a tree as he mentally breaks down. Reality catches up with most of the deluded, given time.
    I think you are confusing two famous John Cleese scenes. The bashing the car with the branch was Fawlty Towers, Clockwise I seemed to remember he got stuck in a field, fell over, etc, but didn't beat the car.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Mal557 said:

    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment Biden's winning margin in California is greater than his winning margin across the country as a whole or, to put it another way, outside California Trump has won more votes than Biden.

    Doesn't matter of course but interesting all the same. I wonder how many Republicans in California don't bother to vote for the Presidency.

    Yes, excluding California Trump would have won the national popular vote and the EC in both 2016 and 2020, it is very much California that will have put Biden over the top
    You are just becoming ridiculous and are demeaning yourself and your stature on this site. We all get things wrong. Admit it (at least to yourself), learn, get over it and move on.
    Nobody on here admitted they got a Biden landslide wrong bar a few honourable exceptions like Peter the Punter and Anobazina so I am damned if I am going to say I was wrong because it was a slightly larger Biden win than the neck and neck result I forecast, I may not have got it spot on but I was not miles out is all I will say
    Well said. Biden's margin to get over 270 will be under a couple of %. You were far closer than those of us on Democrat twitter koolaid predicting a landslide :)
    I admitted it immediately, and more than once. I guess that makes me (a) Nobody
    I projected 291 do I get a pass?
    No, you got it wrong too. :dizzy:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Scott_xP said:
    But they are hanging on Gwyneth County GA
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    Nate Silver reckons Biden's lead in Pennsylvania will be about 3 points.

    Now he tells us!

    As I said it is highly dependent on the number of outstanding ballots and that number was _super_ unclear.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.

    Decision Desk guy on live now.

    Someone needs to go first. They have been saying literally for *days* on CNN that Biden will carry off the remaining PA vote tally. So get on with it guys!

    Or is there going to be a Tapper / Cooper / Blitzer fight offstage as to who gets to announce it...
    I'd like John King to strike the final blow!!
This discussion has been closed.