I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
In a year's time maybe Romney will have moved up. Haley would be alright. Surely there's some sort of Bush available?
Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is Texas Land Comissioner but would need to run for and win the Texas governorship in either 2022 or 2026 to be a contender for the GOP presidential nomination
Can I be the first to start the conspiracy theory that he was born in Mexico? Has anyone seen his birth certificate?
Sleepy Joes middle name is Robinette, are we sure he is not a French sleeper? Perhaps explains the Kamala backers.
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
I've just realised that, in the frenzy of the night, I put a whole load of bets on Biden getting to 300-349 at 10/3 or 7/2 so I will be £1200 up if he gets above that. So he can win AZ, just not NC
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
In a year's time maybe Romney will have moved up. Haley would be alright. Surely there's some sort of Bush available?
Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is Texas Land Comissioner but would need to run for and win the Texas governorship in either 2022 or 2026 to be a contender for the GOP presidential nomination
Can I be the first to start the conspiracy theory that he was born in Mexico? Has anyone seen his birth certificate?
Sleepy Joes middle name is Robinette, are we sure he is not a French sleeper? Perhaps explains the Kamala backers.
Did I hear that Bush Snr congratulated Biden on victory?
That would be impressive - he's dead isn't he?
LOL. I’m waiting for the guys to finish servicing my car and there’s a TV semi-audible in the background!
Say that because there was talk of George P Bush you meant George W as the 'snr' Bush so there was no mixup at all. Granted not father and son, but still.
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
How much is all this costing though PT? Brexit was supposed to save us money.
I'm sure it will. It will cost a fraction of the billions annually membership cost us.
Plus most disruption costs will be temporary whereas membership costs were permanently ongoing. There will be some permanent ongoing costs on processing customs etc but that won't be over ten billion a year.
I feel like very slowly you are accepting Brexit is not going to be sunny uplands
I always said there would be pros and cons and there would be disruption.
I used to be a Remainer. I can see both sides.
If there is another vote in a few years, not an in out but likely ‘accept the labour snp Lib Dem coalitions renegotiation of UKs trading relationship with EU to give U.K. business everything it’s been moaning about since Jan 21’ y/n vote, how do you see yourself voting?
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for around five years.
AZ still looks slightly in Biden's favour, Trumps late push isn't quite at the right rate though this state may represent the smallest winning margin of any state.
This is unfortunate as I thought it might be GA, though I still am good for a Dem win bet there.
Yokes! Have you seen the heat map thing with the little red circles and big blue circles for remaining votes? More blue ones than red ones in AZ. As per red mirage election the blue will report last I suspect.
the impression I get is that AZ is not quite working to the same pattern as seen elsewhere so the suggestion is that the lead will narrow a bit yet.
Idea for a header: OGH should compile a list of election night PB.com posts from midnight Tuesday, tracking our evolving thoughts and horrors of the night and beyond.
It would take a bit of work but would nicely chronicle, and put on the record, a precis of the PB.com experience of the 2020 iteration of the greatest show on earth.
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
How much is all this costing though PT? Brexit was supposed to save us money.
I'm sure it will. It will cost a fraction of the billions annually membership cost us.
Plus most disruption costs will be temporary whereas membership costs were permanently ongoing. There will be some permanent ongoing costs on processing customs etc but that won't be over ten billion a year.
I feel like very slowly you are accepting Brexit is not going to be sunny uplands
I always said there would be pros and cons and there would be disruption.
I used to be a Remainer. I can see both sides.
If there is another vote in a few years, not an in out but likely ‘accept the labour snp Lib Dem coalitions renegotiation of UKs trading relationship with EU to give U.K. business everything it’s been moaning about since Jan 21’ y/n vote, how do you see yourself voting?
No idea it would depend what is negotiated. As it stands I believe we should have a Canada style FTA.
Looks to be based on the assumption that there are about twice as many votes to come as others are suggesting.
That line, if it holds, has an Y-Axis intercept at -120,000 (ish) which means that when there are zero votes left to count, Biden will have a victory margin of 120,000 votes in just Pennsylvania.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
LOL!!!
Trump to win WRONG
Virginia GOP is value WRONG
You shouldn't follow Ralston in Nevada WRONG
Arizona will go GOP PROBABLY WRONG
Trump will carry Georgia WRONG
Colorado GOP is value WRONG
The maths on Biden winning Penn is wrong WRONG
Ah, all of that is a mere bagatelle. What gets me is his irrational championing of plain old History over Classics...
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Hey! I don`t think I talked you out of it. If I recall correctly I suggested selling a third at one price-point, and other third at another price-point and let the rest run. Anyway, you were wittering on about your bet insufferably at the time.
I know. Just joking. I wanted the position going into the night. Did ok on the whole. Biggest hedge was Florida which won and it does like the supremacy bet is going to end up quite decent. Had 100s of other bets on various markets, winners and losers, and I reckon I'll be net up in the very low 4 digits when the curtain falls.
There was lots of free money available, I found. For example, bets on safe red and blue states at prices up to 1.1. Some good arbs, exchange vs SPIN. And fabulous value at nearly evens on the 2 PV totals, Trump to beat 70m and Biden to beat 75m.
How is your overall betting on all this looking? Should be pretty good?
Idea for a header: OGH should compile a list of election night PB.com posts from midnight Tuesday, tracking our evolving thoughts and horrors of the night and beyond.
It would take a bit of work but would nicely chronicle, and put on the record, a precis of the PB.com experience of the 2020 iteration of the greatest show on earth.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Hey I had my best ever betting night backing Trump or against Clinton in 2016. All Hail the LOOOSSSERRRR!
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
2016 was fantastic with Trump winning (from the betting side). 6/1 on the day and states like MI and PA at 18/1
I've just realised that, in the frenzy of the night, I put a whole load of bets on Biden getting to 300-349 at 10/3 or 7/2 so I will be £1200 up if he gets above that. So he can win AZ, just not NC
I`m pleased with my Paddy Power state combination bet at 7/1: "Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire."
I tried to bet £200 but was limited to £43, the cowards.
Need Arizona to drop though. Could cover it, but I won`t.
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
Idea for a header: OGH should compile a list of election night PB.com posts from midnight Tuesday, tracking our evolving thoughts and horrors of the night and beyond.
It would take a bit of work but would nicely chronicle, and put on the record, a precis of the PB.com experience of the 2020 iteration of the greatest show on earth.
Can't we just read the thread?
Yes, but a precis of the best comments would trace a nice truncated story for a header. I`m thinking, say, 15 posts or something.
That`s what I thought anyway ... No matter ... Sorry I brought it up.
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
..and one year later he hitched himself to a project which was umbilically linked to figures like Steve Bannon, without which he would never have become Prime Minister.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
LOL!!!
Trump to win WRONG
Virginia GOP is value WRONG
You shouldn't follow Ralston in Nevada WRONG
Arizona will go GOP PROBABLY WRONG
Trump will carry Georgia WRONG
Colorado GOP is value WRONG
The maths on Biden winning Penn is wrong WRONG
I also suggested this was not the landslide which the polling suggested (think you were one of the most powerful advocates of that line).
But I've made money, and a fair bit by realising I could have been wrong and listening to a few suggestions on here.
I suspect listening to others, and considering you might be wrong, is not a problem you have
Shows like the Daily Show and others were highlighting apparent Biden handsyness years ago.
One of the Hunter Laptop allegations was that the Senator's daughter at 1:10 was photo'd with Hunter, neither entirely dressed. Gross if true.
Anyway, GOP looks like making some gains in the House. I reckon it finishes 225D - 210R, although CA39, IL14, CA21, CA25, IO2 and UT4 are too close to call and so I have reckoned on D and R winning three each.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Hey I had my best ever betting night backing Trump or against Clinton in 2016. All Hail the LOOOSSSERRRR!
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
2016 was fantastic with Trump winning (from the betting side). 6/1 on the day and states like MI and PA at 18/1
We Concur on that one.
Stick around on the site after the election
I might not agree with you a lot but think you add to PB
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
Blimey, ok.
You seriously think someone putting his arm around someone else while they're being photo'd is "dodgy"?
I've put my arm around people I don't know before while getting a photo together, I didn't realise it was "dodgy" to do so. Have you never? Should we burn everyone who's ever had a photo taken like that?
Its not like he was grabbing them by the pussy.
I’m not a very touchy feely person. I’ve certainly never touched a girl under 16, since I’ve been 18, in any way, certainly not the way Biden does in those pics. I doubt Keir Starmer would do you? No doubt Trump would, and maybe that’s why he didn’t make anything of it, but it made me flinch.
You keep saying ‘dodgy’ I think a psychotherapist would have a field day!
I've just realised that, in the frenzy of the night, I put a whole load of bets on Biden getting to 300-349 at 10/3 or 7/2 so I will be £1200 up if he gets above that. So he can win AZ, just not NC
I`m pleased with my Paddy Power state combination bet at 7/1: "Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire."
I tried to bet £200 but was limited to £43, the cowards.
Need Arizona to drop though. Could cover it, but I won`t.
On balance, I'd prefer Biden to take AZ from a betting standpoint although it somewhat screws up the nice 7/1 of Trump winning 5 out of 6 states.
My wife said to me yesterday that one of her colleagues was disappointed that Biden was winning because she'd read that Biden was a paedophile and involved in an underground paedophile ring. My wife asked her if she really thought Biden was a paedophile why he hadn't been arrested for it to which she had no answer except that there was a paedophile ring he was involved in.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Hey I had my best ever betting night backing Trump or against Clinton in 2016. All Hail the LOOOSSSERRRR!
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
2016 was fantastic with Trump winning (from the betting side). 6/1 on the day and states like MI and PA at 18/1
We Concur on that one.
Stick around on the site after the election
I might not agree with you a lot but think you add to PB
Thank you @bigjohnowls I shall do and assume (hopefully) you doo too
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
..and one year later he hitched himself to a project which was umbilically linked to figures like Steve Bannon, without which he would never have become Prime Minister.
The point remaining that he is not and never has been a fervent Trump man, but has acted in his own political self interest, which when PM involved working with world leaders as they exist, as Macron and others have. The awfulness of Boris has nothing to do with him actually being friends with Trump or dedicated to Trump in some way. If for policy reasons he'd have preferred Trump that will have an impact, but that's not the same thing that people are doing, transparently and unnecessarily trying to bind the two much closer together so he can share in Trump's awfulness.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Hey! I don`t think I talked you out of it. If I recall correctly I suggested selling a third at one price-point, and other third at another price-point and let the rest run. Anyway, you were wittering on about your bet insufferably at the time.
I know. Just joking. I wanted the position going into the night. Did ok on the whole. Biggest hedge was Florida which won and it does like the supremacy bet is going to end up quite decent. Had 100s of other bets on various markets, winners and losers, and I reckon I'll be net up in the very low 4 digits when the curtain falls.
There was lots of free money available, I found. For example, bets on safe red and blue states at prices up to 1.1. Some good arbs, exchange vs SPIN. And fabulous value at nearly evens on the 2 PV totals, Trump to beat 70m and Biden to beat 75m.
How is your overall betting on all this looking? Should be pretty good?
I`ve placed hundreds of bets. Over £2k worth in the last 48 hours alone. The post-election night betting opportunities have been legion.
I do not know what I`ve bet overall or what my winnings will be. If pressed I`d guess I`ll be £3k up when the curtain falls, maybe a touch more.
I`m slightly annoyed because at 3am election night I bottled it and reverse-ferreted some of my Next President and Winning Party bets. That cost me £1k + I guess. If only I`d fallen asleep on the sofa like I usually do.
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
My wife said to me yesterday that one of her colleagues was disappointed that Biden was winning because she'd read that Biden was a paedophile and involved in an underground paedophile ring. My wife asked her if she really thought Biden was a paedophile why he hadn't been arrested for it to which she had no answer except that there was a paedophile ring he was involved in.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
At least she knew his name, my missus was still calling him ‘the other bloke’ last night
Question: If Biden had maintained Clinton's lead in Hispanics, would that have been enough to win Texas?
You need to break out Hispanics further, there's Cubans and Puerto Ricans who broke differently.
Moreover. The majority of Hispanics in Arizona and New Mexico are Mexicans/C Americans by descent. They seem to have voted strongly too.
But not in Texas by the looks of things.
Yes - this is exactly my point. There was a big swing to Trump in HIspanic counties in Texas. My question is whether this was enough to cost Texas for Biden.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
My wife said to me yesterday that one of her colleagues was disappointed that Biden was winning because she'd read that Biden was a paedophile and involved in an underground paedophile ring. My wife asked her if she really thought Biden was a paedophile why he hadn't been arrested for it to which she had no answer except that there was a paedophile ring he was involved in.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
Well our own police unfortunately took a 'Someone said it so it must be true' approach to investigating lurid historical claims as well, sadly.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Hey I had my best ever betting night backing Trump or against Clinton in 2016. All Hail the LOOOSSSERRRR!
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
2016 was fantastic with Trump winning (from the betting side). 6/1 on the day and states like MI and PA at 18/1
We Concur on that one.
Stick around on the site after the election
I might not agree with you a lot but think you add to PB
Thank you @bigjohnowls I shall do and assume (hopefully) you doo too
Indeed but need a short break next week.
I havent had much more sleep than Big John King since Tuesday
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
..and one year later he hitched himself to a project which was umbilically linked to figures like Steve Bannon, without which he would never have become Prime Minister.
The point remaining that he is not and never has been a fervent Trump man, but has acted in his own political self interest, which when PM involved working with world leaders as they exist, as Macron and others have. The awfulness of Boris has nothing to do with him actually being friends with Trump or dedicated to Trump in some way. If for policy reasons he'd have preferred Trump that will have an impact, but that's not the same thing that people are doing, transparently and unnecessarily trying to bind the two much closer together so he can share in Trump's awfulness.
No, I can't agree with this at all. His backroom and cabinet staff have had extensive links to Trump's, and through Brexit and maverick populism their operations have even been quite open about considering themselves fighting on the same cultural front. It wasn't the average relationship of expendiency.
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
In a year's time maybe Romney will have moved up. Haley would be alright. Surely there's some sort of Bush available?
Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is Texas Land Comissioner but would need to run for and win the Texas governorship in either 2022 or 2026 to be a contender for the GOP presidential nomination
Looks to be based on the assumption that there are about twice as many votes to come as others are suggesting.
That line, if it holds, has an Y-Axis intercept at -120,000 (ish) which means that when there are zero votes left to count, Biden will have a victory margin of 120,000 votes in just Pennsylvania.
If that line holds....
Yes, but that was why I pointed out that others - in fact apparently today's official figures - indicate that a much smaller number of votes are still to come than implied by that chart. Though Biden would still end up with a lead of 1% or so.
GA Still 10k to count 4.4k left in Gwinnett increases lead by almost 2k 5.7k across other counties more even but Biden gains another 1k
Already up by 1k 3. something k to add so a 4K to 5k win nailed on
RECOUNT
There'll be a recount but no chance a lead of 4k gets overturned.
Knowing Georgia's vote counting processes, they've probably ordered some new machines that will arrive just before the recount starts, that require all the ballots to be resized again....
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
We ? Are you involved a great deal in export/import, then ... ?
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
LOL!!!
Trump to win WRONG
Virginia GOP is value WRONG
You shouldn't follow Ralston in Nevada WRONG
Arizona will go GOP PROBABLY WRONG
Trump will carry Georgia WRONG
Colorado GOP is value WRONG
The maths on Biden winning Penn is wrong WRONG
I also suggested this was not the landslide which the polling suggested (think you were one of the most powerful advocates of that line).
But I've made money, and a fair bit by realising I could have been wrong and listening to a few suggestions on here.
I suspect listening to others, and considering you might be wrong, is not a problem you have
TBH I don`t think I can credit you overall. It`s true that many of us thought that Biden would win tidily. But 306 - 232 isn`t bad. I recall that @Andy_JS was predicting a narrow Biden win. Maybe he deserves some credit.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Perhaps cricket matches where one team wins by <10 runs should be decided by SCOTUS.
Is there any way we can avoid 6-12 months of nonsense being spoken about the U.K./US relationship? Yes, Biden might make a bit of a show of engaging with other leaders first, and some unwelcome stuff might be briefed by his minions, but it remains true that nations have interests rather than friends. In that basis, it remains in the interest of the United States to be our closest ally.
We’re G7 President next year, and we have the Climate Change conference. Add in the fact that (with a deal almost certainly in place) we and the Irish will spend the year making up, not least so nothing goes badly wrong with the Ireland/NI centenary stuff.
There’s going to be 6-12 months of rubbish written, then Biden will get frustrated with his EU mates and stories will be written about a thawing with Boris.
My wife said to me yesterday that one of her colleagues was disappointed that Biden was winning because she'd read that Biden was a paedophile and involved in an underground paedophile ring. My wife asked her if she really thought Biden was a paedophile why he hadn't been arrested for it to which she had no answer except that there was a paedophile ring he was involved in.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
At least she knew his name, my missus was still calling him ‘the other bloke’ last night
Not that we all know as much as we think we do about it all, but I suspect for a lot of more normal UK people it's just a case of who is the goody and who is the baddy. I've often remembered Obama's reelection and a colleague opining the next day that it was great news, but seeming stumped when I asked why it was great news. Not that I was against Obama, I was just struck by their certainty it was the right outcome.
I've just realised that, in the frenzy of the night, I put a whole load of bets on Biden getting to 300-349 at 10/3 or 7/2 so I will be £1200 up if he gets above that. So he can win AZ, just not NC
Now that is a GREAT bet and you are fine even if he DOES get NC – will be 321 with NC in the hooper.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Perhaps cricket matches where one team wins by <10 runs should be decided by SCOTUS.</p>
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Hey I had my best ever betting night backing Trump or against Clinton in 2016. All Hail the LOOOSSSERRRR!
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
2016 was fantastic with Trump winning (from the betting side). 6/1 on the day and states like MI and PA at 18/1
We Concur on that one.
Stick around on the site after the election
I might not agree with you a lot but think you add to PB
Agreed
The more sharp punters this site has, the better imo
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
..and one year later he hitched himself to a project which was umbilically linked to figures like Steve Bannon, without which he would never have become Prime Minister.
The point remaining that he is not and never has been a fervent Trump man, but has acted in his own political self interest, which when PM involved working with world leaders as they exist, as Macron and others have. The awfulness of Boris has nothing to do with him actually being friends with Trump or dedicated to Trump in some way. If for policy reasons he'd have preferred Trump that will have an impact, but that's not the same thing that people are doing, transparently and unnecessarily trying to bind the two much closer together so he can share in Trump's awfulness.
No, I can't agree with this at all. His backroom and cabinet staff have had extensive links to Trump's, and through Brexit and maverick populism their operations have even been quite open about considering themselves fighting on the same cultural front. It wasn't the average relationship of expendiency.
We shall have to agree to disagree. I think the similarities and connections are vastly overplayed because people want it to be true that all the things they dislike are the exact same and perfectly in coordination. I'm happier to dislike both Trump and Boris for their own, separate, reasons.
Shows like the Daily Show and others were highlighting apparent Biden handsyness years ago.
One of the Hunter Laptop allegations was that the Senator's daughter at 1:10 was photo'd with Hunter, neither entirely dressed. Gross if true.
Anyway, GOP looks like making some gains in the House. I reckon it finishes 225D - 210R, although CA39, IL14, CA21, CA25, IO2 and UT4 are too close to call and so I have reckoned on D and R winning three each.
Is there also a red mirage to blue wave thing going on down ticket as well?
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
My wife said to me yesterday that one of her colleagues was disappointed that Biden was winning because she'd read that Biden was a paedophile and involved in an underground paedophile ring. My wife asked her if she really thought Biden was a paedophile why he hadn't been arrested for it to which she had no answer except that there was a paedophile ring he was involved in.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
You wonder what people like that think if they read two different things. Whichever they want to believe, I suppose.
They've changed the daily infection rates for previous weeks in there as well, looking at the spreadsheet for daily infections under tab 2b and comparing it to earlier spreadsheets. It's decreased a bit from mid September, but still high.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
LOL!!!
Trump to win WRONG
Virginia GOP is value WRONG
You shouldn't follow Ralston in Nevada WRONG
Arizona will go GOP PROBABLY WRONG
Trump will carry Georgia WRONG
Colorado GOP is value WRONG
The maths on Biden winning Penn is wrong WRONG
I also suggested this was not the landslide which the polling suggested (think you were one of the most powerful advocates of that line).
But I've made money, and a fair bit by realising I could have been wrong and listening to a few suggestions on here.
I suspect listening to others, and considering you might be wrong, is not a problem you have
Also WRONG!! We have covered this!
I forecast a Trump win at 278 – clearly and repeatedly on here.
ONS survey still correlates to daily case data very well. The R in NW, NE, London, Scotland, SE and NI is now below 1. This is before lockdown was even being contemplated.
We we're forced into it using dodgy data and models from substandard scientists.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Is Trump now hoping it will rain then?
Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Is Trump now hoping it will rain then?
I think he’s trying to argue the pitch was unsafe.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Hey! I don`t think I talked you out of it. If I recall correctly I suggested selling a third at one price-point, and other third at another price-point and let the rest run. Anyway, you were wittering on about your bet insufferably at the time.
I know. Just joking. I wanted the position going into the night. Did ok on the whole. Biggest hedge was Florida which won and it does like the supremacy bet is going to end up quite decent. Had 100s of other bets on various markets, winners and losers, and I reckon I'll be net up in the very low 4 digits when the curtain falls.
There was lots of free money available, I found. For example, bets on safe red and blue states at prices up to 1.1. Some good arbs, exchange vs SPIN. And fabulous value at nearly evens on the 2 PV totals, Trump to beat 70m and Biden to beat 75m.
How is your overall betting on all this looking? Should be pretty good?
I`ve placed hundreds of bets. Over £2k worth in the last 48 hours alone. The post-election night betting opportunities have been legion.
I do not know what I`ve bet overall or what my winnings will be. If pressed I`d guess I`ll be £3k up when the curtain falls, maybe a touch more.
I`m slightly annoyed because at 3am election night I bottled it and reverse-ferreted some of my Next President and Winning Party bets. That cost me £1k + I guess. If only I`d fallen asleep on the sofa like I usually do.
So let's say £5k between us then with you shading it. It's good. More than good. Although if you express it as a yield on time spent I bet it's less than minimum wage. Still, money's only money. For me the main thing was Trump out. I could not have borne another 4 years. I'd have had to drop politics and betting punditry as a hobby and take up something different. Perhaps something to do with my hands.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Is Trump now hoping it will rain then?
Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?
I understand that they are always insanely slow for some reason. I think it was the same in 2016.
Looks to be based on the assumption that there are about twice as many votes to come as others are suggesting.
That line, if it holds, has an Y-Axis intercept at -120,000 (ish) which means that when there are zero votes left to count, Biden will have a victory margin of 120,000 votes in just Pennsylvania.
If that line holds....
Yes, but that was why I pointed out that others - in fact apparently today's official figures - indicate that a much smaller number of votes are still to come than implied by that chart. Though Biden would still end up with a lead of 1% or so.
Provisional ballots are also out there and are likely to be D leaning in PA because of people dropping in mail ballots.
Comments
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Go on national TV with a laughable case and absolutely no evidence.
Then struggle to get paid.
It would take a bit of work but would nicely chronicle, and put on the record, a precis of the PB.com experience of the 2020 iteration of the greatest show on earth.
If that line holds....
5.7k across other counties more even but Biden gains another 1k
Already up by 1k 3. something k to add so a 4K to 5k win nailed on
RECOUNT
There was lots of free money available, I found. For example, bets on safe red and blue states at prices up to 1.1. Some good arbs, exchange vs SPIN. And fabulous value at nearly evens on the 2 PV totals, Trump to beat 70m and Biden to beat 75m.
How is your overall betting on all this looking? Should be pretty good?
I tried to bet £200 but was limited to £43, the cowards.
Need Arizona to drop though. Could cover it, but I won`t.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
https://youtu.be/p4EAc0QFubs
That`s what I thought anyway ... No matter ... Sorry I brought it up.
But I've made money, and a fair bit by realising I could have been wrong and listening to a few suggestions on here.
I suspect listening to others, and considering you might be wrong, is not a problem you have
Not even a Presidential election is as important as a new iPhone.
Anyway, GOP looks like making some gains in the House. I reckon it finishes 225D - 210R, although CA39, IL14, CA21, CA25, IO2 and UT4 are too close to call and so I have reckoned on D and R winning three each.
Stick around on the site after the election
I might not agree with you a lot but think you add to PB
https://youtu.be/EBZbwdCHorQ
You keep saying ‘dodgy’ I think a psychotherapist would have a field day!
They seem to have voted strongly too.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
I do not know what I`ve bet overall or what my winnings will be. If pressed I`d guess I`ll be £3k up when the curtain falls, maybe a touch more.
I`m slightly annoyed because at 3am election night I bottled it and reverse-ferreted some of my Next President and Winning Party bets. That cost me £1k + I guess. If only I`d fallen asleep on the sofa like I usually do.
I havent had much more sleep than Big John King since Tuesday
Good to see you again on the Zoom Pulpstar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Cheney
Are you involved a great deal in export/import, then ... ?
We’re G7 President next year, and we have the Climate Change conference. Add in the fact that (with a deal almost certainly in place) we and the Irish will spend the year making up, not least so nothing goes badly wrong with the Ireland/NI centenary stuff.
There’s going to be 6-12 months of rubbish written, then Biden will get frustrated with his EU mates and stories will be written about a thawing with Boris.
It's a winner I think. Good luck.
Unless he becomes President beforehand of course due a Trump flounce.
The more sharp punters this site has, the better imo
BJO speculated a month.
I’ll go 7 days.
Anyone else?
I forecast a Trump win at 278 – clearly and repeatedly on here.
I was WRONG!!
We we're forced into it using dodgy data and models from substandard scientists.