I would be just a little concerned that a lot of the pundits obviously want Biden to win and I wouldn’t be totally confident that they’re not letting unconscious bias slip into their analyses. Although more likely to be right than theTrump partisans - not least because if the top GOP people thought he was winning he wouldn’t be all over Twitter effing and blinding.
CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin
CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself
Looking at the figures, I think all but AZ look good for Biden now, GA very close, PA and NV not so much. AZ I really have no idea but looks very close and probably the last we will know
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.
Indeed, the other problem is that will the Americans be able to understand the Geordie accent?
Most of us in the UK cannot.
And you, sir, cannot tell the difference between a Geordie accent and a Mackem accent!
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.
Indeed, the other problem is that will the Americans be able to understand the Geordie accent?
Most of us in the UK cannot.
And you, sir, cannot tell the difference between a Geordie accent and a Mackem accent!
I wonder if the Georgia Secretary of State will just declare Trump the winner.
Wouldn't it be close enough to demand a recount, though, so not much point ? Sounds as though they are running a reasonably fair count, however unlevel the playing field they set for election day in terms of polling stations etc.
By the way, it's not impossible that Cal Cunningham is going to overhaul Thom Tillis. Not something I'm saying will happen, but it's not out of the question. He trails by under 100k with 7% of the vote still to count.
Regardless, control of the Senate will come down to the two run-offs January 5th in Georgia.
p.s. edit by my reckoning if Cunningham did, which isn't perhaps likely, but if he did then control of the Senate would be Perdue vs Ossoff which is kind of droll
I’m not sure that everyone should be writing off North Carolina. Both Biden and Cunningham must surely still be in play there? Everyone’s just forgotten about the state because they aren’t reporting any new votes which might show a closing gap if they did.
I wonder if the Georgia Secretary of State will just declare Trump the winner.
Wouldn't it be close enough to demand a recount, though, so not much point ? Sounds as though they are running a reasonably fair count, however unlevel the playing field they set for election day in terms of polling stations etc.
It will be within 0.5% which is GA threshold for recount I think so yes its going to be one but from a pure statement Biden 'winning' it today is big
Looking at that maybe I'm not religious simply because I find overt displays of any kind too embarrassing to get into. I get awkward even with crowd chanting.
It is complete cringe for at least 90% of us I would guess + the speaking in tongues is more a sign of mental illness. My very mainstream congregation would probably call the police if she turned up our way on any given Sunday.
At Pentecost, the followers of Jesus found themselves able to speak in languages that they did not know, but others could understand.
I have never met anyone able to understand or translate Charismatic "speaking in tongues". It is just gibberish, but as part of an ecstatic spiritual experience.
I'm trying to imagine what the Wee Free would make of that performance. For some reason it involves....
- Faces grim as granite. - Fire
I was so struck by that thought that I actually checked. The Presbyterian kirks are officially 'cessationist' - basically all that sort of thing ceased back in the old days when the apostles died out - according to the Westminster Confession of Faith. And I can't imagine it in the C of S. But, at least in the Free Presbyterians, some elements hanker after that sort of Evangelical charismatic stuff, it seems.
The Robert Koch Institute said a record 19,990 infections had been confirmed yesterday in Germany today
The ramp is bloody steep there.
It'll be interesting to see how they react. Assuming deaths = c.2.5% of recorded cases from three weeks ago, they will be having their worst day ever in terms of deaths in the next couple of weeks.
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
The person going for assisted dying will not infect anyone else with assisted dying. Is Hitchens really unable to understand the issue on infection and spread?
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
Except that it is basically impossible to isolate people to the level they are no risk to others. Unless you quarantine them completely....
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
Except that it is basically impossible to isolate people to the level they are no risk to others. Unless you quarantine them completely....
They would be a risk to others, others that are willing to take the risk
So, how do we think it'd be going if Hillary had been reselected?
I think whoever got the nomination in 2020 (probably not D Trump) would be cruising to victory.
Given how narrow the margins are in WI, MI and PA (where Biden has home state advantage) I think she'd have lost in the rust belt again but with an even bigger national vote lead discrepancy.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
Except that it is basically impossible to isolate people to the level they are no risk to others. Unless you quarantine them completely....
They would be a risk to others, others that are willing to take the risk
You can't select who would be at risk from an infected person - unless they live in a sealed environment.
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
What if someone could develop a vaccine against stupidity?
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
I mean, he's probably going to win, so that's seems to be materially better than Hilary to me.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
Florida and Nevada were largely but by no means exlcusively because of the Latino votes there breaking so heavily for Trump. MIami Dade was a horror show and both there and Clark County in NV have many who rely on the tourism industry for their living and Biden is much more 'keep the states locked down for Covid' so Trumps message of open up the states did well with them. There are a lot of other factors of course but that is certainly one major one
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
It isn't in your case, sadly.
Yes, it is. It's exactly what I think. You just categorise all "Remainers" into one "identity politics" block, exactly like the people you detest.
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
Look, I actually don't really care whether Trump wins or not, he's not my President and I'm up if it turns out the way it looks as though it is.
But what really gets me is the hypocrisy of those on here who say the likes of @DAlexander is pedalling conspiracy theories etc etc but, if a 200% turnout happened in a heavily Republican area that swung a state election, would be screaming at the top of their voices about the election is rigged, it's a travesty etc etc. We would be getting detailed explanations about how democracy is in danger etc etc.
Same point @isam made re people criticising Trump for dragging this through the courts when the Democrats have been using the impeachment process to remove an elected President because they didn't like him. It was as bad as the sh1t with Bill Clinton. Jesus, you even had protestors with votive candles to Robert Mueller.
Just admit it, you want him out and any means will do. Great if it is done democratically but you would be quite happy to accept fraud involved if it got the outcome you wanted.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin
CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself
Looking at the figures, I think all but AZ look good for Biden now, GA very close, PA and NV not so much. AZ I really have no idea but looks very close and probably the last we will know
Number of people who want to fly abroad for assisted dying during a pandemic <100 Number of people who want to live their lives normally >60m
Impact of living life normally unsurprisingly on a completely different scale to assisted dying related travel. In list of things to care about during a pandemic, assisted dying travel doesnt make the top 1000, not living life normally is in the top 3.
And the thinks he is the intellectual giant and the rest of society are thick.....
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
Yes, like many Remainers/Rejoiners I consider the EU an imperfect organisation. That though is pretty much my view of any human organisation, including the Westminster Parliament or the NHS. Working to improve these things is the normal state of being.
Presumably those opposed to a Luxembourg veto supported extension of QMV to all areas of EU competence? Or did they only favour a UK veto, with no other country having that power?
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
Except that it is basically impossible to isolate people to the level they are no risk to others. Unless you quarantine them completely....
They would be a risk to others, others that are willing to take the risk
So, say I'm in a shared house and my house-mate decides to be one of those people. Is my house-mate not a risk to me?
Or, ok, say that person lives alone and really doesn't see anyone else apart from others who are also deciding to take that risk. Is it ok for that person to take the risk? If he/she does get ill, should he/she get medical treatment? What about the additional risk to the other people in hospital, the medics and the other patients and their families?
If medical treatment is received, what about the other people who might have been treated for other things if the hospital load of Covid-cases had not increased?
What about the people who lose their jobs/businesses because restrictions have to continue for longer because there are more cases and deaths? (Some of those may be offset if their businesses are patronised by the people taking a risk, but then those business owners/employees also have increased health risk).
I’m not sure that everyone should be writing off North Carolina. Both Biden and Cunningham must surely still be in play there? Everyone’s just forgotten about the state because they aren’t reporting any new votes which might show a closing gap if they did.
Cunningham is running behind Biden. And Biden is only the most outside of outside bets.
We would be in miracle territory for them both to win.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
Yes, like many Remainers/Rejoiners I consider the EU an imperfect organisation. That though is pretty much my view of any human organisation, including the Westminster Parliament or the NHS. Working to improve these things is the normal state of being.
Presumably those opposed to a Luxembourg veto supported extension of QMV to all areas of EU competence? Or did they only favour a UK veto, with no other country having that power?
Its entirely consistent to think that countries should make their own laws which means no QMV and no veto.
The only ones you'd have to ask if they favoured a UK veto are those against a Luxembourg veto but in favour of UK membership of the EU. If they're against UK EU membership then there's no reason for QMV either.
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
What if someone could develop a vaccine against stupidity?
No doubt you could market and sell it before it was completely proven.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
If he wins, that does count as material.
Granted.
I'm just not sure that picking up a few tenths of a percentage point in three states can really be attributed to him being a better candidate. Especially given the obvious headwinds that should have meant his opponent had gone backwards since 2016, all else being equal.
I guess my point is that everyone said Biden was a rotten candidate, and so it has proved, just his coin flips have mostly proven luckier than his predecessor's. Talk of a brilliant strategy executed with ruthless efficiency seems wide of the mark, as it basically implies that Biden's performance is somehow more impressive if he loses Georgia than if he wins it.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
It isn't in your case, sadly.
Yes, it is. It's exactly what I think. You just categorise all "Remainers" into one "identity politics" block, exactly like the people you detest.
Nope, wrong. There are pragmatic Remainers, and there are intolerant Remoaners.
You are one of the latter - I've never read you couch your views as per the former.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
I think its certainly fair to say politicians in the US are judged on very fine margins, especially as outside events (economy, covid) probably have a bigger impact on the election than their performance or policies. The narrative will be set by electoral college votes rather than actual vote share which may end up pretty similar for HRC and Biden.
So, how do we think it'd be going if Hillary had been reselected?
I think whoever got the nomination in 2020 (probably not D Trump) would be cruising to victory.
Given how narrow the margins are in WI, MI and PA (where Biden has home state advantage) I think she'd have lost in the rust belt again but with an even bigger national vote lead discrepancy.
My previous view was that she would have beaten Trump this time. But what this election has told me is that although I was right to say he was toast, I was (sadly) wrong to expect a landslide rejection of him. I underestimated his enduring appeal. So what I now think is that most Dem candidates other than Biden would have lost on Tuesday and this includes Hillary.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).
If I was an American in a swing state I'd be tempted by Biden, but I'd definitely vote Republican for the House and possibly for the Senate too, depending on the candidate.
I can't stand Nancy Pelosi, who's a very left-wing San Francisco Liberal. It'd be like me voting for Glenda Jackson.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
It isn't in your case, sadly.
Yes, it is. It's exactly what I think. You just categorise all "Remainers" into one "identity politics" block, exactly like the people you detest.
Nope, wrong. There are pragmatic Remainers, and there are intolerant Remoaners.
You are one of the latter - I've never read you couch your views as per the former.
You're too emotional.
I won't take lectures on being "emotional" from you, as you're the most emotional person on here. You get upset when someone posts an EU flag emoji.
I'm not even a "Remainer" any more. We're out of the EU and that's that. I've moved on, you clearly haven't.
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
What if the only people going out are those who choose to do so, and willing to take the risk of catching Covid?
Well as long as they don't interact with anyone including essential services such as health care.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He'll be 4-4.25% up (vs 2%) in the popular vote when it's all counted. So he's done reasonably well, but not outstandingly.
CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin
CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself
That last statement has the ring of truth about it.
The three months of watching Trump tantrums is going to make transition very entertaining. Hope Joe trolls Trump by putting Hillary in his transition team 🤣
So, how do we think it'd be going if Hillary had been reselected?
I think whoever got the nomination in 2020 (probably not D Trump) would be cruising to victory.
Given how narrow the margins are in WI, MI and PA (where Biden has home state advantage) I think she'd have lost in the rust belt again but with an even bigger national vote lead discrepancy.
My previous view was that she would have beaten Trump this time. But what this election has told me is that although I was right to say he was toast, I was (sadly) wrong to expect a landslide rejection of him. I underestimated his enduring appeal. So what I now think is that most Dem candidates other than Biden would have lost on Tuesday and this includes Hillary.
From what I saw of him on the stump I should say Buttigieg would have been a better choice. Maybe Klobuchar too but I understand she had 'baggage'.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
It isn't in your case, sadly.
Yes, it is. It's exactly what I think. You just categorise all "Remainers" into one "identity politics" block, exactly like the people you detest.
Nope, wrong. There are pragmatic Remainers, and there are intolerant Remoaners.
You are one of the latter - I've never read you couch your views as per the former.
You're too emotional.
I won't take lectures on being "emotional" from you, as you're the most emotional person on here. You get upset when someone posts an EU flag emoji.
I'm not even a "Remainer" any more. We're out of the EU and that's that. I've moved on, you clearly haven't.
Lol. You are young. You might grow up one day. Until then it's a waste of my time engaging with you.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).
I am not entirely sure on that. Trump is driving turnout on both sides to new levels. There will be millions of voters who vote Trump and Republican down ballot who otherwise wouldnt have voted at all. Against that there are some traditional Republicans who might not turn up or go Democrat down ballot and millions of Democratic voters who also wouldnt normally turnout but vote anti-Trump.
It will never be possible to know the size of those 3 groups. It is quite possible Trump is helping Republican senators through turnout even if they outpoll him by percentage.
Comments
The ramp is bloody steep there.
Fulton should bring it down to 10k or 11k
Clayton provides another 5k reduction off the total in its 7k
Chatham 3k or 4k reduction
So we have
18-10-5-4 = -1
Biden ahead after those 3 imo
Other counties have 27 k votes as they are mail likely bidens gaining those
Biden by more than 5k overall
Sounds as though they are running a reasonably fair count, however unlevel the playing field they set for election day in terms of polling stations etc.
Regardless, control of the Senate will come down to the two run-offs January 5th in Georgia.
p.s. edit by my reckoning if Cunningham did, which isn't perhaps likely, but if he did then control of the Senate would be Perdue vs Ossoff which is kind of droll
Clubs will instead look to devise a new solution that will cover the Christmas period.
Lets see if i am close
Not a happy position.
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
It was 14,964
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Okt_2020/2020-10-28-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
https://www.google.com/search?q=georgia+live+results+election&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB892GB892&oq=georgia+live&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0i10i433j69i57j0l2j69i60j69i61j69i60.5631j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
I am glad someone is worse than me i am only checking when the 000s change!!!
My question is why does the Republican Party view the ability to vote of so many (living) people as a burden from which they ought to be freed.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1324295707797430273
There are a lot of other factors of course but that is certainly one major one
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1324376918448316418
Here's the Georgia code, which sets a three day post election deadline for determining the status of each provisional ballot:
https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2014/title-21/chapter-2/article-11/part-1/section-21-2-419/
(A law brought in by the Republican legislature.)
Squeaky!!!!
Number of people who want to live their lives normally >60m
Impact of living life normally unsurprisingly on a completely different scale to assisted dying related travel. In list of things to care about during a pandemic, assisted dying travel doesnt make the top 1000, not living life normally is in the top 3.
And the thinks he is the intellectual giant and the rest of society are thick.....
Presumably those opposed to a Luxembourg veto supported extension of QMV to all areas of EU competence? Or did they only favour a UK veto, with no other country having that power?
Or, ok, say that person lives alone and really doesn't see anyone else apart from others who are also deciding to take that risk. Is it ok for that person to take the risk? If he/she does get ill, should he/she get medical treatment? What about the additional risk to the other people in hospital, the medics and the other patients and their families?
If medical treatment is received, what about the other people who might have been treated for other things if the hospital load of Covid-cases had not increased?
What about the people who lose their jobs/businesses because restrictions have to continue for longer because there are more cases and deaths? (Some of those may be offset if their businesses are patronised by the people taking a risk, but then those business owners/employees also have increased health risk).
It's just not that simple.
It is completely ridiculous.
We would be in miracle territory for them both to win.
The only ones you'd have to ask if they favoured a UK veto are those against a Luxembourg veto but in favour of UK membership of the EU. If they're against UK EU membership then there's no reason for QMV either.
https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1324372253677506560
I'm just not sure that picking up a few tenths of a percentage point in three states can really be attributed to him being a better candidate. Especially given the obvious headwinds that should have meant his opponent had gone backwards since 2016, all else being equal.
I guess my point is that everyone said Biden was a rotten candidate, and so it has proved, just his coin flips have mostly proven luckier than his predecessor's. Talk of a brilliant strategy executed with ruthless efficiency seems wide of the mark, as it basically implies that Biden's performance is somehow more impressive if he loses Georgia than if he wins it.
You are one of the latter - I've never read you couch your views as per the former.
You're too emotional.
And you're right on the wider point anyway. 7-day sum then was 82k, now 105k.
I can't stand Nancy Pelosi, who's a very left-wing San Francisco Liberal. It'd be like me voting for Glenda Jackson.
Biden 11,866
Trump 1,114
I'm not even a "Remainer" any more. We're out of the EU and that's that. I've moved on, you clearly haven't.
I believe we're getting more data at 9am in Nevada? That's half an hour from now.
Biden 4,807
Trump 1,426
trump added 1425. biden 4807 (77%)
Literally no one.
Back to the betting..
Danny Alexander will be on shortly to report a dump
It will never be possible to know the size of those 3 groups. It is quite possible Trump is helping Republican senators through turnout even if they outpoll him by percentage.