Countries that have succeeded in containing this virus tend to have two things in common: (1) they've closed or very tightly controlled their borders, and (2) they have aggressively suppressed the virus as soon as it's flared up, which has given space for track & trace to work. This is enforced with utter ruthlessness without any scruples whatsoever about liberal individualism.
The trouble with the UK is that to some extent we have economic issues with the former and political issues with the latter.
Japan definitely didn't enforce anything with utter ruthlessness without any scruples whatsoever about liberal individualism. Nobody was ever required to close anything down, the PM said the constitution doesn't allow them to do a lockdown, pachinko parlours continued to operate in defiance of requests from the central government and the governor of Tokyo, a wrestling event went ahead while the local governor stood outside pleading with them to stop, there were hotspots in brothels where one brothel had a serious covid outbreak, and not only did they continue operating, police declined to publicize the name of the plague-stricken brothel citing their right to privacy.
What is true is that they move *fast*: Closed schools, requested WFH, useful guidance on ventilation when we were at about 100 detected cases, not including the cruise ship.
I know you'll argue that Japan is doing everything right, and aligning measures and precautions to the actual disease and without the apparent guesswork and mistargeting of transmission vectors that is going on in Europe etc. but even despite that, it's very difficult to believe that there isn't some sort of underlying immunity level that is driving what is going on in Asia. What do you think?
Or is it just that there are some very specific transmission sources that are somehow absent from Japanese and asian society, but are widespread throughout Europe and the Americas?
I think it's all about the response. The reason why I'm confident that it's all about the response is because we had similar levels of growth that Europe and the US saw before we had the response. We also had a spike in Japan when there was an effective pause in the response, after cases started to drop in March and people got complacent.
I do think you can make an argument that people JP/SK/TW are a little bit more community-minded; For example, we also have people who refuse to wear masks, but it's a much smaller number. Also I don't know about SK/TW but I think *business* here tends to be a bit more public-spirited / conformist and less voraciously capitalist. So I can accept that the US/Europe may need to be a bit more coercive in their response, especially with businesses.
PS. I don't think Japan is doing everything right - a lot of it has been moderately incompetent - but I do think they got the big things right.
Is there anything this Government does that isn't corrupt?
Is that Kate Bingham, wife of Conservative MP Jesse Norman?
Conservative MP Jesse Norman? Old Etonian, read Classics at Oxford, unused first name Alexander; hold on, has any one seen him and Boris together in the same room?
Trump is now more likely to win Iowa than Texas according to 538, as a result of the A+ rated Selzer poll showing Trump with a 7 point lead in the state.
Trump is now more likely to win Iowa than Texas according to 538, as a result of the A+ rated Selzer poll showing Trump with a 7 point lead in the state.
It confirms what I have been saying for a few days
People love the idea of sitting at home on 80% wages for doing nothing?
It is more than that
Huge numbers are public sector or local authority employees or are pensioners all of whom have no financial penalties by staying at home, while the private sector is decimated, along with the tax revenues that go a long way to paying for the public sector
Big tax rises are coming down the line for everyone
Here we go again, the myth repeated. The vast majority of public sector and local authority employees are not sitting at home on furlough - they are working. Most have face-to-face roles - you may even see them emptying your bins, staffing your hospitals, teaching your grandchildren, or cremating the dead. Some are working at home. Not very many are on furlough.
I was not suggesting they are on furlough, quite the opposite
They are guaranteed their jobs and pensions and as with pensioners will not see any loss of income
I do not expect any public sector workers to loss their jobs, but on the other hand the private sector are looking at millions of job loses
Which public sector jobs would you like to see cut?
None.
However there is an unfairness that the private sector are taking this huge hit while many others are unaffected job wise
Amazon are taking a huge hit. Hmmmm.
You know that is not what I mean
Hospitality, leisure and travel are being decimated
Private sector vs. Public sector is such an outdated argument. Tory Stone Age nonsense. Irrelevant, unhelpful and another attempt to divide people.
Today of all days, Tories ought to show a little humility and seek to build bridges. The odd apology might go down well.
Especially given the number of salaries the government has been paying for this year!
I know some private sector people working for large companies who are in the same fortunate position, with secure jobs working at home on full pay with hugely reduced outgoings.
I’d suggest the division isn’t public v private but management and professional v front line (with a few obvious exceptions like delivery). Which if course once again makes the younger employees, in the round, the worse off.
Not sure that particular criticism works. I feel like most people expected a second wave, albeit hoping we'd be better prepared than we have been, so a repeat was always a possibility.
I wonder if now having a huge testing capacity has negative consequences.
If we did half as many tests then there would be far fewer reported positive cases.
With the innumerate in government less panicky.
You are Donald Trump and I claim my free MAGA hat....
It confirms what I have been saying for a few days
People love the idea of sitting at home on 80% wages for doing nothing?
It is more than that
Huge numbers are public sector or local authority employees or are pensioners all of whom have no financial penalties by staying at home, while the private sector is decimated, along with the tax revenues that go a long way to paying for the public sector
Big tax rises are coming down the line for everyone
Here we go again, the myth repeated. The vast majority of public sector and local authority employees are not sitting at home on furlough - they are working. Most have face-to-face roles - you may even see them emptying your bins, staffing your hospitals, teaching your grandchildren, or cremating the dead. Some are working at home. Not very many are on furlough.
I was not suggesting they are on furlough, quite the opposite
They are guaranteed their jobs and pensions and as with pensioners will not see any loss of income
I do not expect any public sector workers to loss their jobs, but on the other hand the private sector are looking at millions of job loses
Which public sector jobs would you like to see cut?
None.
However there is an unfairness that the private sector are taking this huge hit while many others are unaffected job wise
Amazon are taking a huge hit. Hmmmm.
You know that is not what I mean
Hospitality, leisure and travel are being decimated
Private sector vs. Public sector is such an outdated argument. Tory Stone Age nonsense. Irrelevant, unhelpful and another attempt to divide people.
Today of all days, Tories ought to show a little humility and seek to build bridges. The odd apology might go down well.
The average voter understands that the private sector pays for the public sector.
The odd apology from those cheering on a lockdown to those who will lose their businesses, after supporting the public sector, wouldn't go amiss.
Without a public sector providing infrastructure like roads, etc. the private sector would cease to function. The relationship can't purely judged on economic grounds.
You do know that a lot of the decent roads in this country have their origins as for profit turnpikes?
That was then...
Look at the M6Toll road, Half empty because people wont pay for it. I would be very surprised if anymore private roads occur agin.
A bit simplistic? Half-emptiness is what people are paying for.
Well quite. The only issue with the M6 Toll road is whether it covers its costs. Nobody in France objects to the toll motorways. Most of which are in better condition than those still maintained at public expense.
Have you seen the traffic in Belgium? ;’
BTW this site is already difficult to use on an iPad or mobile, and Tuesday night is going to be impossible given the time pages take to refresh and reload. How about a one night ban on posting tweets and images?
Trump is now more likely to win Iowa than Texas according to 538, as a result of the A+ rated Selzer poll showing Trump with a 7 point lead in the state.
Republicans have been around 1/2 favourites in Iowa for months.
What's your prediction for election night? I think Biden will win but only narrowly.
Tbh I do not know what the result will be. I have some state bets for both candidates and have backed Biden to win the presidency, quite heavily by my low standards. I'd like to hedge on Trump but the prices are not there. Four years ago, we could get 6/1 against the 30% chance of a Trump win. Now we can only get 2/1 against the 10% chance. I expect Biden to win. I am worried because most of the case for Biden seems to be that Trump's an arse. The danger is voters will say, yes, Trump's an arse but he's not started any wars and all the job losses are down to Covid (just as the pandemic will cover a bad Brexit here).
So the second worst candidate to beat the worst candidate. Democracy is not supposed to be like this. We could, next January, see President Pence replaced by President Harris, and the American people will have voted for neither.
If the Federal Judge rules that the drive-thru votes in Texas are invalid, where does the case go from there?
Does his Judgement over-rule the Texas Supreme Court?
And if it does, can his Judgement be appealed to a Federal Appeals Court?
And after that would it ultimately go to the US Supreme Court?
The Firth Circuit federal appeals court - which has a large number of Trump appointees (more than those of Clinton and Obama combined). After that, the SC, if they accept the case.
Comments
I do think you can make an argument that people JP/SK/TW are a little bit more community-minded; For example, we also have people who refuse to wear masks, but it's a much smaller number. Also I don't know about SK/TW but I think *business* here tends to be a bit more public-spirited / conformist and less voraciously capitalist. So I can accept that the US/Europe may need to be a bit more coercive in their response, especially with businesses.
PS. I don't think Japan is doing everything right - a lot of it has been moderately incompetent - but I do think they got the big things right.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/dirty-brits-are-worlds-worst-flu-spreaders/
More frequently covered mouth and nose with tissue when coughing or sneezing: Mexico 77%, Argentina 64%, US 61%, Japan 48%, UK 27%.
I know some private sector people working for large companies who are in the same fortunate position, with secure jobs working at home on full pay with hugely reduced outgoings.
I’d suggest the division isn’t public v private but management and professional v front line (with a few obvious exceptions like delivery). Which if course once again makes the younger employees, in the round, the worse off.
BTW this site is already difficult to use on an iPad or mobile, and Tuesday night is going to be impossible given the time pages take to refresh and reload. How about a one night ban on posting tweets and images?
So the second worst candidate to beat the worst candidate. Democracy is not supposed to be like this. We could, next January, see President Pence replaced by President Harris, and the American people will have voted for neither.
Does his Judgement over-rule the Texas Supreme Court?
And if it does, can his Judgement be appealed to a Federal Appeals Court?
And after that would it ultimately go to the US Supreme Court?
It's the deadpan delivery from Haimes that makes it.
After that, the SC, if they accept the case.
Both those would occur post election.
Seems appropriate.