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The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    glw said:

    I regularly say critical things about Boris Johnson, so I think it is only fair that I say that I thought he explained the situation and the goverment's response very well this evening. His tone, the language, and the directness were all spot on.

    I am in the same boat and I agree
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    Boris Johnson is Prime Minister - he leads the Government and it's much easier for people to blame "the Government" than question their own behaviour.

    I said in August if we got a second lockdown it would be the public's fault but you can't tell the public that. Rather like Mary Poppins, the public see themselves as practically perfect in every way.

    Have Johnson and the Government done well? Mistakes have been made - the moving of known Covid patients back into care homes was a national disgrace and I seriously hope one day Hancock will fall on his sword over that. Beyond that, there has been a classic dilemma at the heart of Government - "health versus wealth" is one way of looking at it but you sense the inner philosophical battle for Johnson who is by nature outgoing, optimistic and cheery and that was to be his style of Government - relentlessly upbeat, relentlessly positive, relentlessly optimistic.

    He doesn't so sombre well, he doesn't so unpopular well, he doesn't do bad news well. Even now, he has to throw a bone of hope about "the spring" - I suspect that's more for his benefit than ours.
    It's not just health v wealth. It's also health v enjoying life. What we're getting is a government determined to suppress the things that make life enjoyable, in order to preserve life. That's not sustainable in the long run.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Fishing said:

    The government panicked into another unnecessary and uncosted lockdown by some modelling with spurious assumptions.

    Again.

    It’s really too early to say. The next 2-3 weeks are already baked in and we will see if the pressure on the NHS mounts in the way that was projected. If that happens they were right. If it doesn’t they were wrong but even that doesn’t mean that the precautionary principle did not apply.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_xP said:

    glw said:

    I regularly say critical things about Boris Johnson, so I think it is only fair that I say that I thought he explained the situation and the goverment's response very well this evening. His tone, the language, and the directness were all spot on.

    and 4 weeks too late...

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1322624435917066241
    Didn't it actually go up slower than predicted?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    It's mainly partisan spinning on here tonight. And I say that as someone who detests Boris.

    His presentation was actually appropriate, well-pitched and reassuringly delivered, and we still had the usual suspects on here suggest that if Nicola had done her words would have miraculously healed the sick.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2020
    Of course all the media attacking Boris for not locking down don't mention the absolute horse crap model associated with that policy position presented by SAGE.

    I wonder if they were asked if they were willing to quit their job and sell their homes for the chance a win a prize in a lottery that could be as low as £1000 they would do it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    No travel ban.

    Despite the increasing evidence that strict border controls are one key to getting on top of this thing.

    Lets wait to see the detailed announcement - though I wouldn't be surprised if Shapps has banjaxed this again
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    RobD said:

    I wonder if they'll resume regular press conferences after this?

    Allegra Stratton is urgently needed as no 10 comms is dreadful
    Yet for some reason the idea of No10 hiring someone / her accepting the job got riduculed.
    It *is* ridiculous.
    Boris is so utterly lazy (and useless and comms) he doesn’t even want to talk to the press.
    Besides.
    If Dom is doing policy, and Allegra is doing presentation, what exactly is Boris for?
    Well exactly.

    Violin practice can only be a few hours a day.
    What else is he doing?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited October 2020

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    The hysteria is very silly indeed, as if half the world weren't facing very similar crises and as if a second wave hadn't been predicted many months in advance.

    This chap was warning about it back in July...

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1288063902031515648
    But his own health minister said this today.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1322590408988336129
    Only ten days since the government was slating suggestions of new restrictions with the slogan "Conservatives will keep Britain moving". That was the pinned tweet on the Conservative Party twitter account...until surprisingly recently, when it disappeared!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    nichomar said:

    What will happen in the four weeks to change any outcomes? This is a stop gap, not a solution as there are no solutions without a vaccine, even talking about Christmas is crazy if you think the strategy is right. Concentrate effort on keeping people out of ICU and the bug out of care homes.

    No doubt, like Mr. Micawber, they hope something will turn up in that four week period.
  • Yorkcity said:

    All that criticism on PB of Wales looks a bit over the top now.

    Indeed, Boris Johnson is just like the Stasi.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The infuriating thing about both this response and the March response was just how bloody similar it is.

    Despite plenty of warning the government decided to do nothing substantial and try and pretend things were okay.

    The "rush for normality" in Summer will be a key thing to focus on for the Truth and Reconciliation commission.

    I'm going to be very, very interested to see how Sturgeon plays this now. She clearly wanted another lockdown but without the financial support of the UK government it wasn't viable.

    I wonder if they would extended the furlough program to Scotland if she asked to be included in the four-week lockdown? I suppose the difficult bit would be winding it down on the other side.
    Reading between the lines on Twitter I suspect she will ultimately announce a similar lockdown now because you might as well take the furlough money when it's available when there's no guarantee it won't be after November, even though the position of the SG up till now has been that the current level of restrictions has been working.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    I regularly say critical things about Boris Johnson, so I think it is only fair that I say that I thought he explained the situation and the goverment's response very well this evening. His tone, the language, and the directness were all spot on.

    You have to be kidding. Johnson's delivery was abysmal.
    I think part of him is thinking he wished he'd listened a few weeks ago. The choices are clearly hard. It seems to me the process is national lockdown now, regional lockdowns as needed in Dec until Xmas , and assuming R rises again during that period, though allowing for Xmas to have some normality, then national lockdown again in January. And so on until spring. So March, April maybe?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited October 2020
    It wasn't significant though, you could have put a straight flat line through the shaded region denoting the uncertainty.
  • Did anybody else notice a problem with one of the "combined" models they showed? I will give you a clue it was to do with the projected deaths going forward from today.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    They are people who are incapable of admitting being wrong who said

    Leave wouldn't win,
    Boris wouldn't win the leadership
    He couldn't wangle an early GE,
    then he wouldn't win a landslide...

    They are only human, allow them to vent their pent up anger! #ventthepent
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,839
    Yorkcity said:

    All that criticism on PB of Wales looks a bit over the top now.

    Just a tad, yeah.
    Bloody Drakeford. 2 week libertarian.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    eek said:

    Nobody needs to go away for a spot skiing or a week in the sun over Christmas...and we are still going to let everybody arrive and potter onto the Tube, have a wander around London unchecked.

    TfL bail out runs out tomorrow so it's out of money unless things can quickly
    I know holidays weren't specically mentioned but in the list he gave of 'reasons to leave home' work, schools, essential shopping, medical appts, there was no mention of vacations. so I would assume its off the list , but who knows, guess will have to wait for the small print
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    Boris Johnson is Prime Minister - he leads the Government and it's much easier for people to blame "the Government" than question their own behaviour.

    I said in August if we got a second lockdown it would be the public's fault but you can't tell the public that. Rather like Mary Poppins, the public see themselves as practically perfect in every way.

    Have Johnson and the Government done well? Mistakes have been made - the moving of known Covid patients back into care homes was a national disgrace and I seriously hope one day Hancock will fall on his sword over that. Beyond that, there has been a classic dilemma at the heart of Government - "health versus wealth" is one way of looking at it but you sense the inner philosophical battle for Johnson who is by nature outgoing, optimistic and cheery and that was to be his style of Government - relentlessly upbeat, relentlessly positive, relentlessly optimistic.

    He doesn't so sombre well, he doesn't so unpopular well, he doesn't do bad news well. Even now, he has to throw a bone of hope about "the spring" - I suspect that's more for his benefit than ours.
    It's not just health v wealth. It's also health v enjoying life. What we're getting is a government determined to suppress the things that make life enjoyable, in order to preserve life. That's not sustainable in the long run.
    Their key calculation is the grim nightmare of avoiding triaging of elderly patients in A&E where they cannot attend to everyone, and have to make choices as to who gets oxygen and medical attention.

    That's a very important vector to consider and, it's not the only one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    glw said:

    I regularly say critical things about Boris Johnson, so I think it is only fair that I say that I thought he explained the situation and the goverment's response very well this evening. His tone, the language, and the directness were all spot on.

    Sounded like a bumbling insincere halfwit to me
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    She's setting up her next dividing line there nicely..
  • Mal557 said:

    eek said:

    Nobody needs to go away for a spot skiing or a week in the sun over Christmas...and we are still going to let everybody arrive and potter onto the Tube, have a wander around London unchecked.

    TfL bail out runs out tomorrow so it's out of money unless things can quickly
    I know holidays weren't specically mentioned but in the list he gave of 'reasons to leave home' work, schools, essential shopping, medical appts, there was no mention of vacations. so I would assume its off the list , but who knows, guess will have to wait for the small print
    We are talking about for the Christmas period. The lockdown is scheduled to finish at the start of December, so all the indications are back to Tier system i.e. you are free to go on holiday over Christmas.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    It's mainly partisan spinning on here tonight. And I say that as someone who detests Boris.

    His presentation was actually appropriate, well-pitched and reassuringly delivered, and we still had the usual suspects on here suggest that if Nicola had done her words would have miraculously healed the sick.
    I’m sure that’s right. I didn’t see it. But it’s not about presentation. It’s about strategy. Which has to be wrong.

    The only sensible way forward is to protect the vulnerable and shield them. Repeated lockdowns are horrifically destructive, and don’t work.
  • ydoethur said:

    Yes it has. The French Revolution killed quite a few, specifically in the name of their secularist goals. As a start....
    The Cristero War was pretty grim. And don’t get me started on the Russian Civil War...
    Perhaps President Macron is unaware of Basilique du Sacré-Cœur? AND why it was built?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    She's setting up her next dividing line there nicely..
    She's kind of implying that she's expecting to have done a worse job than her counterparts.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    IanB2 said:

    The Tory MP for Poole has tweeted his disappointment that we didn't hear more from Bozo about car showrooms and estate agents.

    Actually, I have some sympathy with him. Look at the adverts for second hand cars 'delivered to your door' by companies with funny (and IMHO questionable) names. Haven't seen anything by Purple Bricks lately, but can't be long. And If I ran an independent toyshop...... are there any left........ I'd be spitting blood that I had to be closed at my busiest time, while the toy department at Sainsbury's was open.
    And throwing out hints of some hope for some sort of 'normality' at Christmas was the height of irresponsibility.
    My wife and I are becoming resigned to the fact that we'll have the same sort of virtual contact with our UK-resident children and grandchildren at Christmas as we will with our Thailand resident ones.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The infuriating thing about both this response and the March response was just how bloody similar it is.

    Despite plenty of warning the government decided to do nothing substantial and try and pretend things were okay.

    The "rush for normality" in Summer will be a key thing to focus on for the Truth and Reconciliation commission.

    I'm going to be very, very interested to see how Sturgeon plays this now. She clearly wanted another lockdown but without the financial support of the UK government it wasn't viable.

    I wonder if they would extended the furlough program to Scotland if she asked to be included in the four-week lockdown? I suppose the difficult bit would be winding it down on the other side.
    everything he talked about is already in place in majority of Scotland and they have already refused to give Scotland extended furlough, amazing once it is England that money is no object.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The infuriating thing about both this response and the March response was just how bloody similar it is.

    Despite plenty of warning the government decided to do nothing substantial and try and pretend things were okay.

    The "rush for normality" in Summer will be a key thing to focus on for the Truth and Reconciliation commission.

    I'm going to be very, very interested to see how Sturgeon plays this now. She clearly wanted another lockdown but without the financial support of the UK government it wasn't viable.

    I wonder if they would extended the furlough program to Scotland if she asked to be included in the four-week lockdown? I suppose the difficult bit would be winding it down on the other side.
    everything he talked about is already in place in majority of Scotland and they have already refused to give Scotland extended furlough, amazing once it is England that money is no object.
    The same with tier 3 regions of England and it wasn't going to be continued.
  • Yorkcity said:

    All that criticism on PB of Wales looks a bit over the top now.

    The criticism of Drakeford was about his daft non essential supermarket sales collecting a record of over 60,000 signatures to the petition to the Senedd

    Boris very wisely has avoided that controversy
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    I regularly say critical things about Boris Johnson, so I think it is only fair that I say that I thought he explained the situation and the goverment's response very well this evening. His tone, the language, and the directness were all spot on.

    You have to be kidding. Johnson's delivery was abysmal.
    Unless he has downed at least a bottle of sherry he must have been watching something else.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Robespierre?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    Boris Johnson is Prime Minister - he leads the Government and it's much easier for people to blame "the Government" than question their own behaviour.

    I said in August if we got a second lockdown it would be the public's fault but you can't tell the public that. Rather like Mary Poppins, the public see themselves as practically perfect in every way.

    Have Johnson and the Government done well? Mistakes have been made - the moving of known Covid patients back into care homes was a national disgrace and I seriously hope one day Hancock will fall on his sword over that. Beyond that, there has been a classic dilemma at the heart of Government - "health versus wealth" is one way of looking at it but you sense the inner philosophical battle for Johnson who is by nature outgoing, optimistic and cheery and that was to be his style of Government - relentlessly upbeat, relentlessly positive, relentlessly optimistic.

    He doesn't so sombre well, he doesn't so unpopular well, he doesn't do bad news well. Even now, he has to throw a bone of hope about "the spring" - I suspect that's more for his benefit than ours.
    It's not just health v wealth. It's also health v enjoying life. What we're getting is a government determined to suppress the things that make life enjoyable, in order to preserve life. That's not sustainable in the long run.
    Their key calculation is the grim nightmare of avoiding triaging of elderly patients in A&E where they cannot attend to everyone, and have to make choices as to who gets oxygen and medical attention.

    That's a very important vector to consider and, it's not the only one.
    That's up to NICE, the NHS needs to be given clear instructions on when treating COVID is worth it. I'd suggest treatment for an 87 year old with dementia is probably unwarranted, but at the moment the instructions are to treat everyone, we shouldn't be in the same way we don't with other diseases.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    IanB2 said:

    The Tory MP for Poole has tweeted his disappointment that we didn't hear more from Bozo about car showrooms and estate agents.

    He doesn’t want people thinking ‘used car salesman’ when they look at him!
  • malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The infuriating thing about both this response and the March response was just how bloody similar it is.

    Despite plenty of warning the government decided to do nothing substantial and try and pretend things were okay.

    The "rush for normality" in Summer will be a key thing to focus on for the Truth and Reconciliation commission.

    I'm going to be very, very interested to see how Sturgeon plays this now. She clearly wanted another lockdown but without the financial support of the UK government it wasn't viable.

    I wonder if they would extended the furlough program to Scotland if she asked to be included in the four-week lockdown? I suppose the difficult bit would be winding it down on the other side.
    everything he talked about is already in place in majority of Scotland and they have already refused to give Scotland extended furlough, amazing once it is England that money is no object.
    anyone think that furlough would have been extended if the position was had remained with the northern regions locked down and the south less restricted ?

    No, me neither.

    Once the severe restrictions got to London it was inevitable that the generous scheme would be extended.
  • I notice the BBC had bloody Gupta on again just before Boris. I know they try to have "balance", but she is totally discredited.
  • ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory MP for Poole has tweeted his disappointment that we didn't hear more from Bozo about car showrooms and estate agents.

    He doesn’t want people thinking ‘used car salesman’ when they look at him!
    Swiss Toni?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    (CNN) England will enter a second national lockdown, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced. The decision came hours after the UK passed the grim milestone of one million coronavirus cases.

    The month-long shutdown will come into effect from Thursday after a parliamentary vote early next week, Johnson said during a news conference on Saturday evening.

    "We must act now to contain the autumn surge," he said
    .
    Johnson was forced to make the announcement on Saturday after the government's plans were leaked to numerous national newspapers the previous evening. The plan had been initially to announce the measures on Monday.
    The strict lockdown will see the closure of pubs, restaurants and non-essential businesses, including hair salons and gyms. Schools, universities and playgrounds will stay open.

    People will only be able to leave their homes for specific reasons: education, work (if they are unable to work from home), to shop for food, for health reasons, or for exercise and recreation outdoors, either with that person's household or with one person from another household.

    The government is discouraging all non-essential travel, though people will still be able to travel abroad for work, providing they follow England's quarantine rules upon their return.
  • I notice the BBC had bloody Gupta on again just before Boris. I know they try to have "balance", but she is totally discredited.

    Could have been worse they could have had Richard Horton on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    LadyG said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Reminds me of a row between Richard Dawkins and the American right wing talk show host.. cant remember his name, but he argued that Hitler and Stalin were Atheists and that killed millions
    Dawkins argued the opposite.

    Both were wrong.

    Hitler was neither an atheist nor a Christian. Nor, with rare exceptions, were his motives religious (Jehovah’s Witnesses being the main exception I can think of).

    But Stalin definitely did kill thousands if not millions in a bid to impose atheism, as did Lenin.
    And Pol Pot. A crazed atheist. Absolutely loathed religion. Had monks thrown off cliffs and temples burned to dust.
    And Mao, of course.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    (CNN) England will enter a second national lockdown, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced. The decision came hours after the UK passed the grim milestone of one million coronavirus cases.

    The month-long shutdown will come into effect from Thursday after a parliamentary vote early next week, Johnson said during a news conference on Saturday evening.

    "We must act now to contain the autumn surge," he said
    .
    Johnson was forced to make the announcement on Saturday after the government's plans were leaked to numerous national newspapers the previous evening. The plan had been initially to announce the measures on Monday.
    The strict lockdown will see the closure of pubs, restaurants and non-essential businesses, including hair salons and gyms. Schools, universities and playgrounds will stay open.

    People will only be able to leave their homes for specific reasons: education, work (if they are unable to work from home), to shop for food, for health reasons, or for exercise and recreation outdoors, either with that person's household or with one person from another household.

    The government is discouraging all non-essential travel, though people will still be able to travel abroad for work, providing they follow England's quarantine rules upon their return.

    That report suggest at least foreign leisure trips are now forbidden.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,839

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The infuriating thing about both this response and the March response was just how bloody similar it is.

    Despite plenty of warning the government decided to do nothing substantial and try and pretend things were okay.

    The "rush for normality" in Summer will be a key thing to focus on for the Truth and Reconciliation commission.

    I'm going to be very, very interested to see how Sturgeon plays this now. She clearly wanted another lockdown but without the financial support of the UK government it wasn't viable.

    I wonder if they would extended the furlough program to Scotland if she asked to be included in the four-week lockdown? I suppose the difficult bit would be winding it down on the other side.
    everything he talked about is already in place in majority of Scotland and they have already refused to give Scotland extended furlough, amazing once it is England that money is no object.
    anyone think that furlough would have been extended if the position was had remained with the northern regions locked down and the south less restricted ?

    No, me neither.

    Once the severe restrictions got to London it was inevitable that the generous scheme would be extended.
    Spot on.
    And it's no longer "unfair on Cornwall."
    Apparently.
  • ydoethur said:

    How on earth does this guy have this many degrees and not know how to operate a fecking wireless mouse or computer remote?

    Perhaps you remember the stage during the Microsoft anti-trust trial, when the Micosofties attempted to power-up a power-point presentation ? And instead showed the court AND the world the (then) dreaded (and all-to-common) "Blue Screen of Death"!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    It's mainly partisan spinning on here tonight. And I say that as someone who detests Boris.

    His presentation was actually appropriate, well-pitched and reassuringly delivered, and we still had the usual suspects on here suggest that if Nicola had done her words would have miraculously healed the sick.
    bit of green cheese there, you sick that Nicola comes across as coherent and responsible whilst your hero sounds like a bumbling fool.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    Boris Johnson is Prime Minister - he leads the Government and it's much easier for people to blame "the Government" than question their own behaviour.

    I said in August if we got a second lockdown it would be the public's fault but you can't tell the public that. Rather like Mary Poppins, the public see themselves as practically perfect in every way.

    Have Johnson and the Government done well? Mistakes have been made - the moving of known Covid patients back into care homes was a national disgrace and I seriously hope one day Hancock will fall on his sword over that. Beyond that, there has been a classic dilemma at the heart of Government - "health versus wealth" is one way of looking at it but you sense the inner philosophical battle for Johnson who is by nature outgoing, optimistic and cheery and that was to be his style of Government - relentlessly upbeat, relentlessly positive, relentlessly optimistic.

    He doesn't so sombre well, he doesn't so unpopular well, he doesn't do bad news well. Even now, he has to throw a bone of hope about "the spring" - I suspect that's more for his benefit than ours.
    It's not just health v wealth. It's also health v enjoying life. What we're getting is a government determined to suppress the things that make life enjoyable, in order to preserve life. That's not sustainable in the long run.
    Their key calculation is the grim nightmare of avoiding triaging of elderly patients in A&E where they cannot attend to everyone, and have to make choices as to who gets oxygen and medical attention.

    That's a very important vector to consider and, it's not the only one.
    That's up to NICE, the NHS needs to be given clear instructions on when treating COVID is worth it. I'd suggest treatment for an 87 year old with dementia is probably unwarranted, but at the moment the instructions are to treat everyone, we shouldn't be in the same way we don't with other diseases.
    And we are way way over the QUALY spending allowance for a person that NICE use to determine treatment costs vs benefits.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I don't understand why, if they have the rapid tests ready to start deploying in a few days, they feel the need to lockdown?

    Would think this would be the moment to say that they've slowed the second wave down enough that they can use the rapid tests to avoid a second lockdown.

    Unless the tests are just another side show and they won't be able to get people to isolate as a result.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory MP for Poole has tweeted his disappointment that we didn't hear more from Bozo about car showrooms and estate agents.

    He doesn’t want people thinking ‘used car salesman’ when they look at him!
    Swiss Toni?
    Coping with a pandemic is very much like making love to a beautiful woman...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Cyclefree said:

    Things are very black in the Cyclefree household.

    At the start of the week all 3 children had a job. Eldest, who has suffered from severe mental health issues and therefore has had a chequered CV, was ecstatic to find a job. He was due to start this week. As it is in retail, presumably that is at an end. I worry how he will take it.

    Daughter - well you know her situation. She has been incredibly stressed and recently joined a gym to help her with that. Now she will have no work - other than a takeaway and off licence business, more worries about money and whether there is any point carrying on - and her one relaxation has also been taken away.

    Youngest does have a job in the food industry. He is looking for permanent employment, doing endless assessments etc and has been very depressed about his future. 13 years of schooling, a good degree from a good university and he feels his future “fucked”.

    I have been quite concerned about him and eldest so came down to London to do a bit of mothering of them both. Husband will come down when I go up so that we can keep an eye on them separately.

    I may be a lawyer but I am a mother first. I will do whatever is necessary to protect my children. There has been one tragedy in the family already. We will do whatever it takes to stop there being another.

    It is very very bleak. I could cry but I have to comfort my children when they do.

    I know there are no easy solutions. Those who say that we are all anti-Boris hysterics or should stop bewailing every attempt to deal with this should take a pause for a moment and try and remember the very real effects of what politicians are doing to individuals and their lives, especially of the young, who are trying to build the resilience to cope with something which is making their lives a misery at a time when they should be living life to the full.

    I know that there are those who have suffered pain and loss with older family members.

    And what we both have is a right to expect a level of seriousness and attempts at competence in our politicians. And when we don’t get it we are entitled to make a fuss about this without being patronised by those in cushy jobs or those who don’t live here.

    Sorry if that sounds a bit personal. I mean no offence. I find it very hard to see any hope for the future.

    Rant over.

    And, you are right to feel that way.

    Right now, your children are being treated as expendable,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2020
    Nobody see the problem with the "combination of various model" Witty and Valance showed the output of.....the error bars for predictions of deaths going forward should be a funnel shape, with a very narrow range for the next couple of days becoming ever more uncertain (as we now have plenty of data to be able to model what to expect in terms of these numbers for the forthcoming week).

    The chart they showed, massive error bars from tomorrow all the way through for months. If your model (or model of models) can't accurately predict tomorrow with a high degree of confidence, I don't have much confidence in your numbers for 3 months down the line.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    Boris Johnson is Prime Minister - he leads the Government and it's much easier for people to blame "the Government" than question their own behaviour.

    I said in August if we got a second lockdown it would be the public's fault but you can't tell the public that. Rather like Mary Poppins, the public see themselves as practically perfect in every way.

    Have Johnson and the Government done well? Mistakes have been made - the moving of known Covid patients back into care homes was a national disgrace and I seriously hope one day Hancock will fall on his sword over that. Beyond that, there has been a classic dilemma at the heart of Government - "health versus wealth" is one way of looking at it but you sense the inner philosophical battle for Johnson who is by nature outgoing, optimistic and cheery and that was to be his style of Government - relentlessly upbeat, relentlessly positive, relentlessly optimistic.

    He doesn't so sombre well, he doesn't so unpopular well, he doesn't do bad news well. Even now, he has to throw a bone of hope about "the spring" - I suspect that's more for his benefit than ours.
    It's not just health v wealth. It's also health v enjoying life. What we're getting is a government determined to suppress the things that make life enjoyable, in order to preserve life. That's not sustainable in the long run.
    Their key calculation is the grim nightmare of avoiding triaging of elderly patients in A&E where they cannot attend to everyone, and have to make choices as to who gets oxygen and medical attention.

    That's a very important vector to consider and, it's not the only one.
    That's up to NICE, the NHS needs to be given clear instructions on when treating COVID is worth it. I'd suggest treatment for an 87 year old with dementia is probably unwarranted, but at the moment the instructions are to treat everyone, we shouldn't be in the same way we don't with other diseases.
    Pneumonia is traditionally known as the 'old man's friend'.
  • There isn't a problem with changing strategy as events demand. The problem is that the government have been so desperate to score political points they kept painting themselves into corners.

    Why won't you do a national lockdown? "Its an option - we believe a regional tier system will be less damaging and more responsive" would have been better than "He wants to shut us down! Look at the idiots in Wales! We will keep the county moving"

    Why can't we have money now for the NW / hungry kids? "We're doing what we can. We can't do everything that everyone is asking. We've done a lot. We'll do more, but we have to be careful" would have been better than "Burnham is a twat" and "these hungry kids spend it all on crack whores"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited October 2020
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    They are people who are incapable of admitting being wrong who said

    Leave wouldn't win,
    Boris wouldn't win the leadership
    He couldn't wangle an early GE,
    then he wouldn't win a landslide...

    They are only human, allow them to vent their pent up anger! #ventthepent
    Thankfully (although tragically, in reality) our predictions that he would prove to be an abysmal PM have managed to break our appalling record, in spectacular style.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    I regularly say critical things about Boris Johnson, so I think it is only fair that I say that I thought he explained the situation and the goverment's response very well this evening. His tone, the language, and the directness were all spot on.

    Sounded like a bumbling insincere halfwit to me
    High praise from you.

    Frosty though you may be we all know you actually have a warm heart. I wonder though what might equate to a good speech by your standards?

    (Impossible question, I know. And the best speeches are often made by people we wouldn't wish to identify with.)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Nobody see the problem with the "combination of various model" Witty and Valance showed the output of.....the error bars for predictions of deaths going forward should be a funnel shape, with a very narrow range for the next couple of days becoming ever more uncertain (as we now have plenty of data to be able to model what to expert in terms of these numbers for the forthcoming week).

    The chart they showed, massive error bars from tomorrow all the way through for months. If your model (or model of models) can't accurately predict tomorrow with a high degree of confidence, I don't have much confidence in your numbers for 3 months down the line.

    Did the intern asked to put the slides together know how to put different sized error bars on each point? ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The infuriating thing about both this response and the March response was just how bloody similar it is.

    Despite plenty of warning the government decided to do nothing substantial and try and pretend things were okay.

    The "rush for normality" in Summer will be a key thing to focus on for the Truth and Reconciliation commission.

    I'm going to be very, very interested to see how Sturgeon plays this now. She clearly wanted another lockdown but without the financial support of the UK government it wasn't viable.

    I wonder if they would extended the furlough program to Scotland if she asked to be included in the four-week lockdown? I suppose the difficult bit would be winding it down on the other side.
    everything he talked about is already in place in majority of Scotland and they have already refused to give Scotland extended furlough, amazing once it is England that money is no object.
    The same with tier 3 regions of England and it wasn't going to be continued.
    Was it only a few days ago that they fought Burnham for days over £5m?

    Covid Time is weird.
  • Scott_xP said:
    As I said at the time, politically smart, but this is intellectually dishonest.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory MP for Poole has tweeted his disappointment that we didn't hear more from Bozo about car showrooms and estate agents.

    Actually, I have some sympathy with him. Look at the adverts for second hand cars 'delivered to your door' by companies with funny (and IMHO questionable) names. Haven't seen anything by Purple Bricks lately, but can't be long. And If I ran an independent toyshop...... are there any left........ I'd be spitting blood that I had to be closed at my busiest time, while the toy department at Sainsbury's was open.
    And throwing out hints of some hope for some sort of 'normality' at Christmas was the height of irresponsibility.
    My wife and I are becoming resigned to the fact that we'll have the same sort of virtual contact with our UK-resident children and grandchildren at Christmas as we will with our Thailand resident ones.
    Indeed. Quite a few big car dealerships in Poole. Lots of estate agents too. It will be a big concern amongst his constituents, I imagine.

    And also sheds light on two wider points:

    - a lack of detail. I run an online business, I assume there will be the same exemptions as in March, but I don't know
    - the backbenchers. I suspect they're not impressed....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    tlg86 said:

    She's setting up her next dividing line there nicely..
    She's kind of implying that she's expecting to have done a worse job than her counterparts.
    Cleverly pointing out that we need to go with a begging bowl and it is not filled unless it applies to England. Perfectly put for her audience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    On non Brexit topics, it is possible Baker is capable of nuance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    If Tuesday night doesn't bring the expected good news, a lot of us are going to be suicidal.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Did anybody else notice a problem with one of the "combined" models they showed? I will give you a clue it was to do with the projected deaths going forward from today.

    Was that the SPI-M one with the trend line that continued to go straight upward when the March trends had been all over the place?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Any idea on what is law and what is advice? How will it be policed? It’s actually irrelevant how it was delivered it’s the content that matters. People will make up their minds on what they read on their social media feeds and the papers. If they spend more than two minutes relating it to their lives I’d be surprised, widespread public support but widespread under the radar ignoring it as we plan for life as normal where we can get away with it.
    I’m glad to be in Spain where most people can still have a limited social life whilst still obeying the rules, although this could have changed next time I look.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Cyclefree said:

    Things are very black in the Cyclefree household.

    At the start of the week all 3 children had a job. Eldest, who has suffered from severe mental health issues and therefore has had a chequered CV, was ecstatic to find a job. He was due to start this week. As it is in retail, presumably that is at an end. I worry how he will take it.

    Daughter - well you know her situation. She has been incredibly stressed and recently joined a gym to help her with that. Now she will have no work - other than a takeaway and off licence business, more worries about money and whether there is any point carrying on - and her one relaxation has also been taken away.

    Youngest does have a job in the food industry. He is looking for permanent employment, doing endless assessments etc and has been very depressed about his future. 13 years of schooling, a good degree from a good university and he feels his future “fucked”.

    I have been quite concerned about him and eldest so came down to London to do a bit of mothering of them both. Husband will come down when I go up so that we can keep an eye on them separately.

    I may be a lawyer but I am a mother first. I will do whatever is necessary to protect my children. There has been one tragedy in the family already. We will do whatever it takes to stop there being another.

    It is very very bleak. I could cry but I have to comfort my children when they do.

    I know there are no easy solutions. Those who say that we are all anti-Boris hysterics or should stop bewailing every attempt to deal with this should take a pause for a moment and try and remember the very real effects of what politicians are doing to individuals and their lives, especially of the young, who are trying to build the resilience to cope with something which is making their lives a misery at a time when they should be living life to the full.

    I know that there are those who have suffered pain and loss with older family members.

    And what we both have is a right to expect a level of seriousness and attempts at competence in our politicians. And when we don’t get it we are entitled to make a fuss about this without being patronised by those in cushy jobs or those who don’t live here.

    Sorry if that sounds a bit personal. I mean no offence. I find it very hard to see any hope for the future.

    Rant over.

    Courage, madam, courage. As someone who recently had a mental health wobble, and who is anticipating doing much of this winter lockdown alone, in a London flat, with no garden, I sympathise entirely. I also have relatives freaking out in various ways.

    But, however bad it is is, and it is very bad, this is not the trenches. And we endured that.

    Brace.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Cyclefree said:

    Things are very black in the Cyclefree household.

    At the start of the week all 3 children had a job. Eldest, who has suffered from severe mental health issues and therefore has had a chequered CV, was ecstatic to find a job. He was due to start this week. As it is in retail, presumably that is at an end. I worry how he will take it.

    Daughter - well you know her situation. She has been incredibly stressed and recently joined a gym to help her with that. Now she will have no work - other than a takeaway and off licence business, more worries about money and whether there is any point carrying on - and her one relaxation has also been taken away.

    Youngest does have a job in the food industry. He is looking for permanent employment, doing endless assessments etc and has been very depressed about his future. 13 years of schooling, a good degree from a good university and he feels his future “fucked”.

    I have been quite concerned about him and eldest so came down to London to do a bit of mothering of them both. Husband will come down when I go up so that we can keep an eye on them separately.

    I may be a lawyer but I am a mother first. I will do whatever is necessary to protect my children. There has been one tragedy in the family already. We will do whatever it takes to stop there being another.

    It is very very bleak. I could cry but I have to comfort my children when they do.

    I know there are no easy solutions. Those who say that we are all anti-Boris hysterics or should stop bewailing every attempt to deal with this should take a pause for a moment and try and remember the very real effects of what politicians are doing to individuals and their lives, especially of the young, who are trying to build the resilience to cope with something which is making their lives a misery at a time when they should be living life to the full.

    I know that there are those who have suffered pain and loss with older family members.

    And what we both have is a right to expect a level of seriousness and attempts at competence in our politicians. And when we don’t get it we are entitled to make a fuss about this without being patronised by those in cushy jobs or those who don’t live here.

    Sorry if that sounds a bit personal. I mean no offence. I find it very hard to see any hope for the future.

    Rant over.

    Lots of sympathy from here.No so much on the children front, but on the grandchildren one. No 2 Grandson is..... was ...... looking forward to Uni next year. Is that still a good idea?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yorkcity said:

    All that criticism on PB of Wales looks a bit over the top now.

    No, because not all the criticism was about efficacy of the policy, but about whether it was clear or, more vitally, legal, in all that it was seeking to prohibit. That is entirely unaffected by the actions of the UK government, or, on the legal issue, the efficacy of it.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Things are very black in the Cyclefree household.

    At the start of the week all 3 children had a job. Eldest, who has suffered from severe mental health issues and therefore has had a chequered CV, was ecstatic to find a job. He was due to start this week. As it is in retail, presumably that is at an end. I worry how he will take it.

    Daughter - well you know her situation. She has been incredibly stressed and recently joined a gym to help her with that. Now she will have no work - other than a takeaway and off licence business, more worries about money and whether there is any point carrying on - and her one relaxation has also been taken away.

    Youngest does have a job in the food industry. He is looking for permanent employment, doing endless assessments etc and has been very depressed about his future. 13 years of schooling, a good degree from a good university and he feels his future “fucked”.

    I have been quite concerned about him and eldest so came down to London to do a bit of mothering of them both. Husband will come down when I go up so that we can keep an eye on them separately.

    I may be a lawyer but I am a mother first. I will do whatever is necessary to protect my children. There has been one tragedy in the family already. We will do whatever it takes to stop there being another.

    It is very very bleak. I could cry but I have to comfort my children when they do.

    I know there are no easy solutions. Those who say that we are all anti-Boris hysterics or should stop bewailing every attempt to deal with this should take a pause for a moment and try and remember the very real effects of what politicians are doing to individuals and their lives, especially of the young, who are trying to build the resilience to cope with something which is making their lives a misery at a time when they should be living life to the full.

    I know that there are those who have suffered pain and loss with older family members.

    And what we both have is a right to expect a level of seriousness and attempts at competence in our politicians. And when we don’t get it we are entitled to make a fuss about this without being patronised by those in cushy jobs or those who don’t live here.

    Sorry if that sounds a bit personal. I mean no offence. I find it very hard to see any hope for the future.

    Rant over.

    Don't apologise - everything is personal when its you. I hope things work out for you all.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    Yorkcity said:

    All that criticism on PB of Wales looks a bit over the top now.

    Just a tad, yeah.
    Bloody Drakeford. 2 week libertarian.
    It is perfectly reasonable to point out that Drakeford's list of non-essential goods was ridiculous.

    Fancy, in the middle of a pandemic, going through a long list of things like lego, stationary, broom-handles, children's pyjamas and mop-heads and deciding whether they are "essential". Would you not have thought Mark and the Welsh Government have something else more useful to do in a pandemic?

    And, as you have mentioned Wales, did you miss the earlier comparison between deaths over the last 2 weeks in Wales, Scotland, N. Ireland and England provided by LostPassword?

    It is one of the very few tables that the Welsh Government has managed to propel Wales to the very top.

    Remember parts of Wales have been locked down since the beginning of September (Caerffili) -- so it is impressive to see that of the 4 nations, Wales still has the highest R number.

    As you said, bloody Drakeford.

    Labour are in power. Labour are in power in Wales. If they have got bright ideas on how to tackle the pandemic, it is certainly not obvious from their performance in Wales.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    nichomar said:

    Any idea on what is law and what is advice? How will it be policed? It’s actually irrelevant how it was delivered it’s the content that matters. People will make up their minds on what they read on their social media feeds and the papers. If they spend more than two minutes relating it to their lives I’d be surprised, widespread public support but widespread under the radar ignoring it as we plan for life as normal where we can get away with it.
    I’m glad to be in Spain where most people can still have a limited social life whilst still obeying the rules, although this could have changed next time I look.

    They were bounced into the press conference if you remember. The full details are going to be laid before parliament on Monday.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Cyclefree said:

    Things are very black in the Cyclefree household.

    At the start of the week all 3 children had a job. Eldest, who has suffered from severe mental health issues and therefore has had a chequered CV, was ecstatic to find a job. He was due to start this week. As it is in retail, presumably that is at an end. I worry how he will take it.

    Daughter - well you know her situation. She has been incredibly stressed and recently joined a gym to help her with that. Now she will have no work - other than a takeaway and off licence business, more worries about money and whether there is any point carrying on - and her one relaxation has also been taken away.

    Youngest does have a job in the food industry. He is looking for permanent employment, doing endless assessments etc and has been very depressed about his future. 13 years of schooling, a good degree from a good university and he feels his future “fucked”.

    I have been quite concerned about him and eldest so came down to London to do a bit of mothering of them both. Husband will come down when I go up so that we can keep an eye on them separately.

    I may be a lawyer but I am a mother first. I will do whatever is necessary to protect my children. There has been one tragedy in the family already. We will do whatever it takes to stop there being another.

    It is very very bleak. I could cry but I have to comfort my children when they do.

    I know there are no easy solutions. Those who say that we are all anti-Boris hysterics or should stop bewailing every attempt to deal with this should take a pause for a moment and try and remember the very real effects of what politicians are doing to individuals and their lives, especially of the young, who are trying to build the resilience to cope with something which is making their lives a misery at a time when they should be living life to the full.

    I know that there are those who have suffered pain and loss with older family members.

    And what we both have is a right to expect a level of seriousness and attempts at competence in our politicians. And when we don’t get it we are entitled to make a fuss about this without being patronised by those in cushy jobs or those who don’t live here.

    Sorry if that sounds a bit personal. I mean no offence. I find it very hard to see any hope for the future.

    Rant over.

    I really feel for you and your family @Cyclefree - life is hard enough for their generation without this. I am disappointed beyond measure that a Conservative government has taken this approach. It is the triumph of the public sector over the private, yet again.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    They are people who are incapable of admitting being wrong who said

    Leave wouldn't win,
    Boris wouldn't win the leadership
    He couldn't wangle an early GE,
    then he wouldn't win a landslide...

    They are only human, allow them to vent their pent up anger! #ventthepent
    Nobody disputes his talent for sliming his way to Boris-beneficial outcomes. It's the side-effects on, say, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, and the entire UK public, and so on that's the issue.
  • The polls have consistently showed a large majority of the public support a lockdown

    Let us see if they do now it is coming in England
  • This was always going to happen as soon as they went for this hyper-localized Tier system. Everybody will complain you are being unfair to use in one way or another.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited October 2020
    But not for 3.75 years or so, so toughen up.

    We're allowed to panic like particularly frightened lemmings made of jelly, our MPs need to be made of sterner stuff despite some latitude for basic humanity.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited October 2020

    I don't understand why, if they have the rapid tests ready to start deploying in a few days, they feel the need to lockdown?

    Would think this would be the moment to say that they've slowed the second wave down enough that they can use the rapid tests to avoid a second lockdown.

    Unless the tests are just another side show and they won't be able to get people to isolate as a result.

    Because all the numbers we look at are for things that happened in the past — so hospitalisations and deaths will rise for weeks to come — and all the measures we hope to use will have effects in the future, over the weeks and months ahead. So there is a gap to bridge, and a lockdown fills the gap, by keeping the COVID-19 related illness within the capacity of the NHS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    That's the part of the policy I don't get. Who is in or not in each tier should be decided in the center using a consistent metrics.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    The polls have consistently showed a large majority of the public support a lockdown

    Let us see if they do now it is coming in England

    People will support lockdown for as long as they are being paid.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Shagger: "Its not my fault, follow the science like I always do. The science made me do it"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssiWFZIPXKQ
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    glw said:

    I don't understand why, if they have the rapid tests ready to start deploying in a few days, they feel the need to lockdown?

    Would think this would be the moment to say that they've slowed the second wave down enough that they can use the rapid tests to avoid a second lockdown.

    Unless the tests are just another side show and they won't be able to get people to isolate as a result.

    Because all the numbers we look are for things that happened in the past — so hospitalisations and deaths will rise for weeks to come — and all the measures we hope to use will have effects in the future, over the weeks and months ahead. So there is a gap to bridge, and a lockdown fills the gap, by keeping the COVID-19 related illness within the capacity of the NHS.
    Maybe because "the rapid tests ready to start deploying in a few days" is just a fantasy?
  • MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:
    It's slightly more nuanced than that as the author admits further down the thread. Curbside voting is allowed in TX but only if you physically can't get in the polling station (it's intended for disabled / elderly voters). What Harris County did was allow drive-through voting - where a clerk brings the poll to your car - and call it curbside voting to get round the restrictions on drive-through voting, which is not allowed. Also in TX, the state legislature makes the voting rules, not the counties.
    Throwing out a hundred thousand ballots is facism. Nothing complicated about it.

    It they want to void the election and call for a revote that would be one thing, to simply throw out people's votes is inexcusable.
    Tell you what, we have a General Election here. We allow people to cast their votes from their cars and put into a box outside the scrutiny of polling stations, and where a clerk is holding the box in a parking lot.

    You happy with that?
    We are quite happy with that here in WA State.

    Except that most drive-up votes are ballots returned via official drop boxes, which are NOT monitored 24/7 - but note that all signatures on return ballot envelopes are verified before being accepted. And in cases where ballot are given directly to election workers, signature requirement still applies

    My guess is Texas procedure for absentee ballots (which Harris Co curb-side pickups are, I think) is similar, the sigs get checked.

    SO not quite (or at all) as loosey-goosey as you may imagine.
  • RobD said:

    That's the part of the policy I don't get. Who is in or not in each tier should be decided in the center using a consistent metrics.
    Germany, at least did have, exactly this. Your cases / 100k rise above x level you immediately move to this set of measures, as in today / tomorrow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    glw said:

    I don't understand why, if they have the rapid tests ready to start deploying in a few days, they feel the need to lockdown?

    Would think this would be the moment to say that they've slowed the second wave down enough that they can use the rapid tests to avoid a second lockdown.

    Unless the tests are just another side show and they won't be able to get people to isolate as a result.

    Because all the numbers we look are for things that happened in the past — so hospitalisations and deaths will rise for weeks to come — and all the measures we hope to use will have effects in the future, over the weeks and months ahead. So there is a gap to bridge, and a lockdown fills the gap, by keeping the COVID-19 related illness within the capacity of the NHS.
    Maybe because "the rapid tests ready to start deploying in a few days" is just a fantasy?
    The fact that he said a few days makes me think it isn't a fantasy. That, and the boffins were also saying that rapid testing didn't look like it was certain before, but now looks like a reality.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    The level of anti Boris hysteria on here is now exceeding previous peaks that were largely Brexit related. It’s genuinely mad. This is a very difficult situation and I am not pretending for a moment that there are a lot of things that could have been done better but some people need to either get a grip or start offering Boris departure related bets that we can take advantage of.

    They are people who are incapable of admitting being wrong who said

    Leave wouldn't win,
    Boris wouldn't win the leadership
    He couldn't wangle an early GE,
    then he wouldn't win a landslide...

    They are only human, allow them to vent their pent up anger! #ventthepent
    Nobody disputes his talent for sliming his way to Boris-beneficial outcomes. It's the side-effects on, say, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, and the entire UK public, and so on that's the issue.
    The point is so many never-wrongs DID dispute those talents, four times!

    And told us to bet on their advice
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Charles said:

    Robespierre?
    Yes, I'm a big fan of secularism and supportive of Macron ins his current struggles, but let's not go overboard.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Nobody see the problem with the "combination of various model" Witty and Valance showed the output of.....the error bars for predictions of deaths going forward should be a funnel shape, with a very narrow range for the next couple of days becoming ever more uncertain (as we now have plenty of data to be able to model what to expect in terms of these numbers for the forthcoming week).

    The chart they showed, massive error bars from tomorrow all the way through for months. If your model (or model of models) can't accurately predict tomorrow with a high degree of confidence, I don't have much confidence in your numbers for 3 months down the line.

    Well given what we are doing regarding travel the strain we'll be dealing with in a few months time will likely be another one introduced by people returing from their Christmas holidays, so no model is much use that far ahead.
  • Yorkcity said:

    All that criticism on PB of Wales looks a bit over the top now.

    Indeed, Boris Johnson is just like the Stasi.
    Khasi more like..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    So does this all mean I'm too late to get my hair cut before lockdown?

    No but keep the mullet - it suits you.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    It seems horse racing will continue behind closed doors for now as well:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/betting-shops-in-england-to-close-from-thursday-in-hit-to-industry-and-racing/457141

    The closure of betting shops is of far greater significance to the funding of the sport. Basically, owners and punters have kept the show on the road since June. The former have kept horses in training allowing the sport to continue while betting turnover has enabled Levy funding to continue to provide income for prize money and for the racecourses.

    A 4-week closure will be a big blow and will cost the industry millions but racing will continue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    @Cyclefree

    I’d offer comfort if I had any to offer. The best I can manage is that you and your family are all clearly smart, hard working and well motivated people and things usually come right for them in the end. They did for me after the horror of three years unemployment after the crash.

    In the meanwhile, you’ve got lots of friends and admirers including lots here on PB who are all 100% behind you and will support you. So never apologise for ranting. I know very well myself how much it helps!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I think, on reflection, what makes me really angry about the Scientist's and Government approach is the complete lack of nuance, or analysis of the effect of options. They are basically giving up and saying they don't have a clue.

    People can disagree about how serious the current situation is, and argue about the validity of their models if we don't take additional action. But why does that automatically mean EVERYTHING needs to shut down (other than schools etc). Pubs, restaurants i get. There's always been a debate about that. But there are vast other areas of the economy, the so-called "non essential shops/businesses" that are being ordered to shut down. Are these really major contributors to the spread of the disease? How much do the contribute to the spread of the disease? Where are the models stating "the effect of shutting down pubs is X, restaurants Y, etc etc".

    Because every bit of the economy that you shut down will be paid back negatively down the road. But is a garden centre or DIY store where everyone is wearing masks a danger? Is a hairdressers really a super spreader? A clothes shop? etc etc.

    The scientists have just basically said, "better err on the side of caution, shut everything". But do we need to shut everything? Which not shut the risky things but leave the others open.

    The virus is much worse in some parts of the country than others. Just because it is rising everywhere does that mean everything has to shut down?

    And fundamentally - have the different options been modelled, and where are the graphs projecting forward and giving genuine options to ministers.

    It's all just "things are bad, something must be done, shut everything". Damn the economy, damn businesses, who cares? No doubt the modelling isn't easy. But it needs to be done. If some things can stay open at minimal risk then they should be able to. And the scientists owe it to them to prove that the risk avoidance justifies the cost.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Anyone any idea what happens to local Remembrance day things at the war memorial - it's next Sunday and Boris didn't mention it.
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