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The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market – politicalbetting.com
The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market – politicalbetting.com
The final weekend before Tuesday’s election and a lot of activity on the UK betting markets where punters had been viewing Trump’s chances quite a bit better than the US data analysts.
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From a pure epidemiological POV it is a no brainer.
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1322598253741920256?s=20
https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1322596524002594816?s=20
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1322599799699492864?s=20
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1322565277050048514?s=20
https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1322581506007670785?s=20
It’s out of date because I wrote it yesterday, but if OGH would be interested I could still send it in.
So you end up with a trashed economy *and* still get thousands of deaths.
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322603265322848256
We're using a broad measure of stopping some forms of interaction to reduce the overall R, it's an untargeted method which causes a lot of secondary damage. It also doesn't work because stopping interaction in public just drives the same interaction into front rooms which are impossible to police.
There is no form of lockdown that will make any kind of difference in this country, not without closing schools and that is an unacceptable cost and needs to be avoided even if it means more deaths than would otherwise happen.
The only way to resolve this is targeted measures to stop people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. There is no other way to do it, none. Everything else is going to fail and cost the nation more than just money.
Now on page 6 and 7 of 7 when 2 days ago they were both on page 2 of 7
Looks like all I have missed is some panic.
(*Delete according to your class preference)
I will agree however that it is substandard compared to usual teaching.
But that pales really compared to the health implications of trying to keep going as we are.
This is telling and in a swing state. https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1321864407329230851
This is very good.
I stand by saying he has an about 97% (3+ on 2d6) chance of winning given the voting numbers and polls.
Only a catastrophic systemic failure can mean Trump wins now. Without a systemic failure he has lost, no ifs or buts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-tier-3-cases-deaths/
Italy 5-34 England
This is the one that predicts a mean of 4000 deaths per day by Dec 20th, and 1 sigma upper bound of 7000 daily deaths, based on the graph from Laura Kuenssberg's tweet.
Is the data, and the modelling code that informs that prediction, in the public domain?
I didn't think so, but if you can point me to it, I'd be very interested.
Of course rates also vary for other reasons. But if you think it’s possible to control that rate of reinfection, I have a bridge to sell you.
There are ways it could be done, but the current approach has completely failed and a new one is needed. And unfortunately, it seems unlikely a new approach would work on its own without getting R down, because the thing about educational settings is that while there are ways of keeping the number low, it’s bloody difficult to get the number low while they’re open.
And I think it would have been sensible to do something similar in the UK - kept Universities on-line until January, and bring schools back from youngest to oldest. Doing it all in one go meant that you didn't go from R of 1 to 1.2, but from 1 to 3.
The D lead in early voting is now sub 100K. What should be more worrying though for Biden (and the pollsters) is explained here in a Bloomberg:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far/ar-BB1ayfa6
Now, as the header suggests, it is ostensibly about Black / Hispanic turnout, but note the last sentence (which isn't expanded on):
"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters"
That is also been seen elsewhere. Jon Ralston looks to be calling Nevada for the Democrats. I will defer to him as the expert there (although I have a few questions) but he has to up his figures for how well Trump is likely to do in the rural areas there. He thought c. 50K lead for Trump at the start but now is thinking 80K or possibly more because of the scale of the turnout. That is likely to be white non-college voters. If that is the case, then you can bet your bottom dollar that the pollsters' assumptions re the weighting of the category is also wrong because it will be based on 2016 turnout
We are now paying the price - or at least, yet another price - for the ‘cram them in like sardines in a tin’ policy pursued by successive governments since 1870.
The free school seems to be in a similar position - their online teaching methodology seems more about setting work and then getting results, rather than the teacher video presenting for the length of the whole class.
I would think the same should apply to sixth forms at least. However, one thing I note is that everyone is so *certain* that they know what should be done. I rather think that we should all be *uncertain* about what should be done, as so many facts are still fuzzy.
--AS
The thing is the UK is so dense that we draw distinctions without a difference. Greater Manchester is a different city to Liverpool, towns in-between like Warrington are different too. But they are actually one contiguous urban area. There's no natural break between them like there is in other countries.
Edit: but please be aware imo your analysis on the covid situation has been a highlight of this site.
I regret my currently shabby appearance, but it's self-administered clippering for me for some time forwards. (It's actually quite fun, although when you look in the mirror not so much)
The question needs to be - how can we replicate that in the state sector, where those don’t apply? Because at the moment this isn’t happening. And it needs to, for social, economic, and above all educational reasons.