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New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level – po

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    You really are clinging to this aren't you. The Govt has already abandoned manifesto commitments ...... on support for farmers for example ........ and if you're relying on our PM"s word......... I have a bridge in which you might be interested.
    It is not just Boris, Hunt too said he would block indyref2 if he run the Tory leadership and became PM last year. The Tory majority of 80 will thus vote down permission for indyref2 whoever is PM and the PM's authority to grant indyref2 comes only from Parliament.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Foxy said:

    Brexit is a stick to beat the Unionist cause with in Scotland but it’s not the fundamental driver of Scottish nationalist sentiment, which was there (and growing) regardless.

    Brexit crystallised it though. Whether Remain or Leave, the way that Brexit has been managed with complete contempt for Scottish opinion has been the final nail in the coffin of the Union. Being ignored generates resentment.

    I have some sympathy for @DavidL and his British identity being forcibly stripped away from him by the Nationalists. It is very similar to how I feel about having my European Identity and rights removed.
    You don’t have a European identity. There is no such thing.

    British identity is legitimate and a tragedy that it might be lost.
    You may not have a European identity. I do, as do many other people. I am Scottish, British and European. Leaving the EU hasn't stopped me feeling European, and Scotland leaving the UK won't stop me feeling British. Pre Brexit I thought that all those identities could coexist, but Brexit demonstrated that the British state was a threat to both my European and Scottish identities,by insisting on the primacy of the British identity over all others, and so I have with some sadness changed my mind on Scottish independence.
    You do not successfully argue against division by creating more division.

    I flirted with your position in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but it was a mistake. Supporting Scottish Independence will have consequences. There seem to be far too many people egging it on in order to own English Brexit supporters. Deeply irresponsible.
    That's certainly not my motivation - I don't want to own anybody. I would hope that an independent Scotland can stay in the common travel area with rUK and Ireland, can continue to trade as now and remain aligned with rUK standards etc. Once Scotland joins the EU there may be more barriers with rUK. But hopefully by then the UK and EU will have a productive trading relationship that will minimise barriers. And if not then Scotland may be in a good position to increase trade significantly with the EU to offset what is lost with rUK by leveraging its superior trading relationship with the EU.
    The point is, if Scotland can be forcibly thrown out of the EU by English voters, it is no longer in control of its own destiny and the UK has manifestly become a toxic Union for Scotland.
    I don't want to minimise the potential costs. And as a Scot living in London I will be largely unaffected, except for the welcome opportunity to regain an EU passport for my children and I. So obviously I may have less at stake than others. I certainly understand and respect your position.
  • HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the SNP + Greens winning a majority is as close to a cert as you'll get at the next Holyrood elections.

    Obviously Sturgeon then requests a section 30 which is then refused by Johnson. That lot is very easy to game out.

    What is Sturgeon's next move ? Court of Session ? Advisory referendum of her own ?
    An advisory referendum would likely be boycotted by unionists, the nats would almost certainly win. Does she could that then go to the Court of Session with prima facie evidence that the union of crowns is essentially done ?

    That is the question: which order does it go? Referendum - Court of Sessions. Or Court of Sessions first.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Stocky said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    But Burnham backs a complete lockdown as long as it's called a circuit break?
    The misery has gotta be spread
    Seems so. How can it be fair on those in the South West?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Anyway, I have better things to do than argue all afternoon with a bunch of Euroloons.

    Brandy and cigars?
    https://youtu.be/sLdZtU-RhPI
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the SNP + Greens winning a majority is as close to a cert as you'll get at the next Holyrood elections.

    Obviously Sturgeon then requests a section 30 which is then refused by Johnson. That lot is very easy to game out.

    What is Sturgeon's next move ? Court of Session ? Advisory referendum of her own ?
    An advisory referendum would likely be boycotted by unionists, the nats would almost certainly win. Does she could that then go to the Court of Session with prima facie evidence that the union of crowns is essentially done ?

    That is the question: which order does it go? Referendum - Court of Sessions. Or Court of Sessions first.
    I think she needs another electoral mandate to go with 2016 and 2019.

    So I reckon she needs an explicit mandate now that we've left the EU.

    So she needs to ask for a section 30 after the SNP/Greens win a mandate next year, when it is refused, then go to the Court of Session.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020
    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on contract tracing systems here. Touches upon the practical problems of implementing them, and the experiences of China, S. Korea, and Germany:

    Is contract tracing now futile for the COVID-19 epidemic in most of the world? Probably yes. The infection is already too widespread for disease eradication to be feasible in most places. It might be useful in slowing the spread of the epidemic in areas where hospital resources are at risk of congestion. This benefit will come, however, at considerable costs to the privacy rights and civil liberties of traced individuals, often with no public health benefit because of testing errors.
    https://inference-review.com/article/on-the-futility-of-contact-tracing

    So, even if the implementation of the Nationwide system wasn't such a bodge, it might be wishful thinking to expect it to do a lot of good. To my mind there are two feasible options given where we are in the UK:

    1. Another 2-3 month "proper" lockdown to eradicate the virus as far as possible (schools shut, no hospitality, forcibly quarantine new arrivals at airports). Following opening up, implement contract tracing, ride roughshod over civil liberties - for the greater good. The China playbook, if you will - see also NZ and Aus.
    2. Open up, focus resources on shielding the vulnerable and on increasing NHS capacity and resilience. Await herd immunity, and (fingers crossed a vaccine). Deaths, but at least the economy survives ok and life returns to normality for most. More akin to Sweden.
    I think there's a case to be made for doing the first, but I don't see the political or societal will to make the sacrifices involved. I personally would plump for something along the lines of the 2nd given where we are. The government seem to be a bit lost, and going for the middle ground.
    The problem with 2 is that the economy won't survive OK and life won't return to normality for most if large numbers of people are dying. In addition to it being extremely inhumane, of course.
    The reason it keeps coming up is that while it's a mirage, it appeals to the "For God's sake, let's just get it over with!" impulse within our brains.

    We want there to be a straightforward choice, even if it would cost. A or B, which is it? Make a choice!

    If it turns out not to be a straightforward A or B where we can weigh them up and make a choice to get it over with - we don't like it. That's why it keeps coming up.

    - The economy and public health are inextricably linked. It's not one or the other. It's always both, and every approach will fuck both up to one degree or another, and it's not a seesaw.
    - If restrictions aren't legally applied, they'll be unofficially applied. It happens everywhere. It just means that more deaths are incurred.
    - Herd immunity ain't coming without a vaccine. If Manaus didn't get there, even with "let it rip" and burying so many thousands of their (primarily young) population, nowhere's getting there through the virus.
    - Follow that route, and as well as extra deaths, the economy will very likely get screwed even worse.

    There's no good route out without a vaccine. Or ubiquitous near-instant testing.
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    But Burnham backs a complete lockdown as long as it's called a circuit break?
    Burnham wants to circuit break the whole of England no matter the levels of covid

    Plus he wants 80% furlough for everyone and self employed reimbursement of earnings
    Sounds pretty sensible to me. And to SAGE.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Alistair said:

    That is the question: which order does it go? Referendum - Court of Sessions. Or Court of Sessions first.

    Advisory referendum

    Stonking win

    Court of Session, claiming Westminster is illegitimately blocking the will of the Scottish people.
  • Can't blame Drakeford for acting. Yet more challenge to Shagger's "authority" though.

    As well as refusing English people, Drakeford might also like to refuse England's massive subsidies?
    Wales is part of England.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Plus in any case once it becomes clear that independence from the UK once the UK leaves the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means a hard border with England and tariffs on all Scottish exports to England and loss of the £ support for independence falls significantly

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Cyclefree said:

    A reality check: if Daughter’s business was closed for a month the maximum help it would get would be £1,300.

    That would cover one month’s rent and part only of a month’s electricity. Bear in mind that freezers need to be kept on.

    How could water, wi-if, telephone, insurance be paid for?

    Let alone employees’ wages (paying for the 33% the government won’t help with), NI, pension contributions etc?

    That’s a closed business in debt right there from Day 1.

    And for businesses under Tier 2 restrictions, turnover is down 70%. That’s not viable.

    So unless the government changes its mind over support, the hospitality sector will be - bluntly - bust long before Xmas.

    Which is going to be catastrophic. And will cost the government far more than sustaining these otherwise viable businesses would be. This isn't an airline or a premier league football club asking for cash. This is our community. Our culture.
    It is, and the safe and sustained opening of viable businesses was treated as a joke by Johnson.

    Instead of initiating robust risk assessments to confirm what businesses could safely be reopened, and could stay open, he made crass comedic comments like "it is you patriotic duty to go to the pub".
    I am now being made redundant at one of the big pub companies - I think they will be decreasing headcount by about 1/3, but that is initial and they keep stressing that they may need to go further. I don’t know what @Cyclefree knows about the individual pub his daughter works in, but in August pubs were back to between 70 and 90% of previous trade. 70% for city centre bars / restaurants, 90% for suburban and country pubs. That is probably now down to 50 and 70% respectively with the curfew removing the most profitable hours.

    The worst thing and most insulting regarding these businesses is the crass comments about viability. Those very successful businesses which did it all, wedding venues / conferences and business meet8ng, restaurants, letting rooms, and bars have been devastated on multiple fronts, and it really is the brightest and best who are being taken out. A mediocre pub with a mediocre rent is much more likely to survive with the grants and loans, and rent concessions and business rate holidays making up the difference. This seems pretty unpalatable to me, although I imagine some genuinely imaginative and entrepreneurial minds will be looking for new sectors after this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
  • Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
  • Public Health England was reassuring politicians that the UK was not set for France-style coronavirus spike even as SAGE prepared to back a 'circuit breaker' lockdown , it can be revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8839003/PHE-told-peers-September-15-UK-trajectory-Germany.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    Plus in any case once it becomes clear that independence from the UK once the UK leaves the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means a hard border with England and tariffs on all Scottish exports to England and loss of the £ support for independence falls significantly

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518

    Scotland in the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England? So you think Boris Johnson will fail to get a free trade deal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Trump must have seen the latest Georgia poll
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316385654587170822
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the SNP + Greens winning a majority is as close to a cert as you'll get at the next Holyrood elections.

    Obviously Sturgeon then requests a section 30 which is then refused by Johnson. That lot is very easy to game out.

    What is Sturgeon's next move ? Court of Session ? Advisory referendum of her own ?
    An advisory referendum would likely be boycotted by unionists, the nats would almost certainly win. Does she could that then go to the Court of Session with prima facie evidence that the union of crowns is essentially done ?

    She can try what she wants, Westminster is sovereign and the Court of Session cannot overrule Westminster statute which states a legal independence referendum can only happen with Westminster consent
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Catalonia going into strictest regulation yet in Spain for 15 days. Bars and restaurants shut with many more restrictions. Let’s wait for the legal battles.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    The Scots are an irrelevance. Scots polling is directly inverse to the high pitched whining of Ms Sturgeon.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Using masks, but I think they exceeded the rule of 6....

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1316264613139435521?s=20

    Homes under the hammer is getting dark.
    Any explanation as to what is going on and why?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Did I just see Roger's name? Is that the real Roger?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    I had assumed with the way HYUFD was talking there was a magic off switch he could flick.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump must have seen the latest Georgia poll
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316385654587170822

    Or the colour of the people standing in line early voting ...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
    I would wonder about where the UK's boomer submarines are going. It is hard to find somewhere as good as Faslane in England.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    Independence will never be allowed under a Conservative Government so it is not an issue, if a future Labour government granted an indyref and Yes won then the Tory policy would still be not to give in to the SNP by taking as tough a line with them in independence negotiations as possible
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    I had assumed with the way HYUFD was talking there was a magic off switch he could flick.
    Oh if we're talking HYUFD, I think his magic off switch for Holyrood is send 7th Armoured Brigade and 16 Air Assault Brigade to take Edinburgh, and force the SNP into exile on Rockall.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    guybrush said:

    Nigelb said:

    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on contract tracing systems here. Touches upon the practical problems of implementing them, and the experiences of China, S. Korea, and Germany:

    Is contract tracing now futile for the COVID-19 epidemic in most of the world? Probably yes. The infection is already too widespread for disease eradication to be feasible in most places. It might be useful in slowing the spread of the epidemic in areas where hospital resources are at risk of congestion. This benefit will come, however, at considerable costs to the privacy rights and civil liberties of traced individuals, often with no public health benefit because of testing errors.
    https://inference-review.com/article/on-the-futility-of-contact-tracing

    So, even if the implementation of the Nationwide system wasn't such a bodge, it might be wishful thinking to expect it to do a lot of good. To my mind there are two feasible options given where we are in the UK:

    1. Another 2-3 month "proper" lockdown to eradicate the virus as far as possible (schools shut, no hospitality, forcibly quarantine new arrivals at airports). Following opening up, implement contract tracing, ride roughshod over civil liberties - for the greater good. The China playbook, if you will - see also NZ and Aus.
    2. Open up, focus resources on shielding the vulnerable and on increasing NHS capacity and resilience. Await herd immunity, and (fingers crossed a vaccine). Deaths, but at least the economy survives ok and life returns to normality for most. More akin to Sweden.
    .
    Or 3) Test enough people that you don't have to contact trace at all, just isolate everyone who is infected.
    The article touches upon some of the limitations of PCR tests - false positives, and false negatives.

    I could see it working if we get a step change in the test technology though.

    I reckon we'd have to do a China and forcibly isolate people in field hospitals, hotels, etc against their will if necessary. Not sure if that would help with the uptake in testing.

    But yes, a viable 3rd option.

    If you want to do mass testing you don't use PCR; it doesn't scale. Antigen tests are the cheapest, quickest and most scaleable.
    Absolute accuracy isn't particularly important if you do enough tests, either. If you're testing everyone, only picking up (for example) 80% of those infected would be massively better than we're doing now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally I belive it would got Section 30 request - refusal - Court of sessions.

    I don't believe Sturgeon would got straight for the advisory referendum.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
    I'm not sure England (even if you count all of the UK forces as England) has enough troops or tanks in working order.

    Of course should it come to fisticuffs then we could sail the Scottish aircraft carriers round the coast with big signs saying hoo-hah! The sort of thing that has scared Russian military planners for decades.

    However the war will be short - the mars bar supply will cease, deep fat fryers across the belligerent territory will be idle, and Boris will huff and puff into Edinburgh leading an army of Journists, and tripping over the lovely Kuensberg.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    Independence will never be allowed under a Conservative Government so it is not an issue, if a future Labour government granted an indyref and Yes won then the Tory policy would still be not to give in to the SNP by taking as tough a line with them in independence negotiations as possible
    What if the Scottish Conservatives are able to win power in an independent Scotland?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    The Scots are an irrelevance. Scots polling is directly inverse to the high pitched whining of Ms Sturgeon.

    Why do you hate your country so much?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    I had assumed with the way HYUFD was talking there was a magic off switch he could flick.
    He could send the “Scottish regiments”.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    I suspect Casino has been enjoying a very liquid luncheon.

    I think were are referring to two different things: the European continent and the EU (which, of course, doesn`t contain the whole of Europe anyway).

    As Nick points out, I guess individuals can identify with what they like, but others may find that choice odd or illogical. Would those that say they identify with the EU say the same about the UN?
    So what if someone does identify with the UN? Who cares? it affects nobody else. It certainly makes no difference to @Casino_Royale ’s life other than what he so ridiculously allows.
    Crikey, I`m all for freedom of thought. But I guess it matters on a repair-the-country basis because the country is still cleaved upon leave / remain lines. Plenty has been written about "deluded leavers", but may I tentatively suggest that if there is a cohort of remainers who identify as a EU-ites, or whatever, there is some delusion on that side too?
    Deluded in what sense? Nobody is denying we have left the EU and very few people are under the impression we are going to rejoin any time soon. So I ask again, how are people deluded?
    Hmm. I`m going to ponder on this further. I`ve enjoyed this thread because I`ve never understood how someone can attach identity to a political project rather than an entity with national borders and democracy within. Voting to remain in the EU for pragmatic reasons - I can understand that - I`m in their number - but voting remain for emotional reasons I don`t get at all because we are still European.
    I don't feel much of a European identity. I feel British and English in about equal measure, perhaps English slightly stronger. Nevertheless my Remain vote was more than pragmatism. There was emotion there too because I strongly approve of the EU as a project. For all its flaws I see it as an essentially noble undertaking. A binding together of the continent with certain common enlightened values, cooperation in lieu of aggressive nationalism, outward looking not insular, a bulwark against political extremism, just generally a vast improvement on what went before and what imo is the alternative now. You may say I'm a dreamer - and perhaps I'm the only one - but that's in all honesty how I felt about it. I would have voted Remain even if I knew it would make us poorer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Plus in any case once it becomes clear that independence from the UK once the UK leaves the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means a hard border with England and tariffs on all Scottish exports to England and loss of the £ support for independence falls significantly

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518

    Scotland in the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England? So you think Boris Johnson will fail to get a free trade deal?
    Even with a Canada style FTA once we leave the single market and customs union there will be some tariffs still on UK exports to the EU and vice versa as there are still a few tariffs on Canadian exports to the EU and vice versa now
  • TimT said:

    Using masks, but I think they exceeded the rule of 6....

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1316264613139435521?s=20

    Homes under the hammer is getting dark.
    Any explanation as to what is going on and why?
    They are the new Boris Covid Marshals, they heard somebody was holding a gathering of more than 6 people...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally here is Ballot Box Scotland's seat projections

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1316344018331217921?s=19
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited October 2020
    TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump must have seen the latest Georgia poll
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316385654587170822

    Or the colour of the people standing in line early voting ...
    Two thirds of dem voters intend to vote pre-election day right?

    There better be some high totals by election eve.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    The miserable scofflaw continues scoffing.

    Dominic Cummings allowed to avoid backdated council tax on second home
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/14/dominic-cummings-must-pay-council-tax-on-second-home-in-durham
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    The Lords can only block legislation for a year, the Commons always gets its way in the end (though it is unlikely Boris would go that far yet)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
    I would wonder about where the UK's boomer submarines are going. It is hard to find somewhere as good as Faslane in England.
    There was talk at one time, IIRC, about Milford Haven, aka Aberdaugleddau. Although shifting them there might give a lift to the PC vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    Independence will never be allowed under a Conservative Government so it is not an issue, if a future Labour government granted an indyref and Yes won then the Tory policy would still be not to give in to the SNP by taking as tough a line with them in independence negotiations as possible
    Why would you want to take a tough line against people you consider to be your fellow countrymen?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    It wouldn't get through the Commons.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump must have seen the latest Georgia poll
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316385654587170822

    Vets? He's after the All Creatures Great & Small vote.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    It wouldn't get through the Commons.
    After the supine and shameful behaviour of Tory MPs in passing the Internal Market Bill, I put nothing past this crop of Tory MPs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plus in any case once it becomes clear that independence from the UK once the UK leaves the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means a hard border with England and tariffs on all Scottish exports to England and loss of the £ support for independence falls significantly

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518

    Scotland in the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England? So you think Boris Johnson will fail to get a free trade deal?
    Even with a Canada style FTA once we leave the single market and customs union there will be some tariffs still on UK exports to the EU and vice versa as there are still a few tariffs on Canadian exports to the EU and vice versa now
    So why did you say *all* Scottish exports?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plus in any case once it becomes clear that independence from the UK once the UK leaves the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means a hard border with England and tariffs on all Scottish exports to England and loss of the £ support for independence falls significantly

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47484518

    Scotland in the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England? So you think Boris Johnson will fail to get a free trade deal?
    Even with a Canada style FTA once we leave the single market and customs union there will be some tariffs still on UK exports to the EU and vice versa as there are still a few tariffs on Canadian exports to the EU and vice versa now
    So why did you say *all* Scottish exports?
    I gather there will tariffs on (any) UK electric cars, as a significant percentage of the components will come from outside both the EU and UK.
  • HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
    I would think Culloden Fields was more HYUFD's reference point
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Your lot are not going out of their way to ease the situation though, are you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    Independence will never be allowed under a Conservative Government so it is not an issue, if a future Labour government granted an indyref and Yes won then the Tory policy would still be not to give in to the SNP by taking as tough a line with them in independence negotiations as possible
    Why would you want to take a tough line against people you consider to be your fellow countrymen?
    If Scotland voted for independence Scots would no longer be by fellow countrymen, they would be foreigners of no more emotional connection to me than the French (in fact less as some of my ancestors were Huguenots and I have no Scottish blood).

    The only possible connection would be the monarchy but if that went too zero. I like visiting the Republic of Ireland occasionally but do not consider the Irish my fellow countrymen
  • isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    But Burnham backs a complete lockdown as long as it's called a circuit break?
    Burnham wants to circuit break the whole of England no matter the levels of covid

    Plus he wants 80% furlough for everyone and self employed reimbursement of earnings
    Sounds pretty sensible to me. And to SAGE.
    And close the economy in areas just getting back on their feet
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    Scott_xP said:
    "No such undertaking has been received, and we are now at war with England"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
    I would think Culloden Fields was more HYUFD's reference point
    I don't think anyone nowadays would be as daft as the Young Pretender was.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399

    HYUFD said:

    Starry said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what? It does not matter if Yes is on 99% in a poll Boris as PM has made quite clear he will block indyref2 while he remains PM and correctly so as 2014 was a once in a generation vote.

    As the Spanish government showed with the Catalan nationalists illegal referendums can be ignored and with a Tory majority of 80 until 2024 under our constitution what Westminster says goes

    The people of Scotland elected a government that pledged "that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will"

    Whether Scotland needs England to allow it to be independent is a matter of debate. Norway has said it would recognise and admit to the EEA a self-declared independent Scotland, and there is the UN Charter declaring the right of people to self-determination. It would be messy, undemocratic and only ensure fracturing of the Union to ignore even the right for the Scottish people to consider independence, given the manifesto of the Scottish government.
    So what, Holyrood and the Scottish government are just creations of Westminster, Madrid even shut the Catalan Parliament down for months and arrested leaders of the Catalan nationalist government when it tried to hold an illegal indyref. Legally Boris and Westminster could shut Holyrood down, more likely they just refuse indyref2 but under our constitution Westminster is sovereign and whatever the majority party at Westminster says goes
    You are losing your grip

    You have not mentioned the tanks and military entering the fiefdom
    Yes; I was wondering about Bannockburn.
    I would wonder about where the UK's boomer submarines are going. It is hard to find somewhere as good as Faslane in England.
    There was talk at one time, IIRC, about Milford Haven, aka Aberdaugleddau. Although shifting them there might give a lift to the PC vote.
    Can someone advise me which bit of "Aberdaugleddau" is a translation of Milf?
  • I look forward to HYUFD being dispatched north of the Border to campaign for remain. He personally will generate a further 2% switch to leave.
  • I don't see those opinions as inconsistent. It says to me that the median voter in NC has a fairly low opinion of both Trump and Biden
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    It wouldn't get through the Commons.
    However blocking indyref2 certainly would
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    It wouldn't get through the Commons.
    After the supine and shameful behaviour of Tory MPs in passing the Internal Market Bill, I put nothing past this crop of Tory MPs.
    Well I guess I wouldn't, either.
    But I don't think they regard Johnson as a permanent fixture now, so they likely would not be quite as craven.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    What mechanism does Boris have to shut Holyrood down?

    Pass legislation repealing the Scotland Act of 1998?

    (I don't think it'll get through the Lords though.)
    It wouldn't get through the Commons.
    This government doesn't legislate. Just sign a statutory instrument and be done with it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    Independence will never be allowed under a Conservative Government so it is not an issue, if a future Labour government granted an indyref and Yes won then the Tory policy would still be not to give in to the SNP by taking as tough a line with them in independence negotiations as possible
    Why would you want to take a tough line against people you consider to be your fellow countrymen?
    If Scotland voted for independence Scots would no longer be by fellow countrymen, they would be foreigners of no more emotional connection to me than the French (in fact less as some of my ancestors were Huguenots and I have no Scottish blood).
    And the same goes for Scottish Tories?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    Using masks, but I think they exceeded the rule of 6....

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1316264613139435521?s=20

    Homes under the hammer is getting dark.
    Any explanation as to what is going on and why?
    They are the new Boris Covid Marshals, they heard somebody was holding a gathering of more than 6 people...
    Seriously? Look more like street thugs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Alistair said:

    Incidentally here is Ballot Box Scotland's seat projections

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1316344018331217921?s=19

    Unionists need to start tactical voting
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    guybrush said:

    Razor wire along Offa's Dyke. Hurrah!

    Keep the Welsh out!

    That's a policy I can back wholeheartedly.
    Build a wall. Trump was right.
    If we want to keep the Welsh out, just keep releasing sheep into Wales, that'll keep the Welsh occupied.
    baaah
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    Independence will never be allowed under a Conservative Government so it is not an issue, if a future Labour government granted an indyref and Yes won then the Tory policy would still be not to give in to the SNP by taking as tough a line with them in independence negotiations as possible
    Why would you want to take a tough line against people you consider to be your fellow countrymen?
    If Scotland voted for independence Scots would no longer be by fellow countrymen, they would be foreigners of no more emotional connection to me than the French (in fact less as some of my ancestors were Huguenots and I have no Scottish blood).

    The only possible connection would be the monarchy but if that went too zero. I like visiting the Republic of Ireland occasionally but do not consider the Irish my fellow countrymen
    So why are you bothered about “keeping Scotland” if you don’t care about them whatsoever?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Foxy said:

    Brexit is a stick to beat the Unionist cause with in Scotland but it’s not the fundamental driver of Scottish nationalist sentiment, which was there (and growing) regardless.

    Brexit crystallised it though. Whether Remain or Leave, the way that Brexit has been managed with complete contempt for Scottish opinion has been the final nail in the coffin of the Union. Being ignored generates resentment.

    I have some sympathy for @DavidL and his British identity being forcibly stripped away from him by the Nationalists. It is very similar to how I feel about having my European Identity and rights removed.
    You don’t have a European identity. There is no such thing.

    British identity is legitimate and a tragedy that it might be lost.
    You may not have a European identity. I do, as do many other people. I am Scottish, British and European. Leaving the EU hasn't stopped me feeling European, and Scotland leaving the UK won't stop me feeling British. Pre Brexit I thought that all those identities could coexist, but Brexit demonstrated that the British state was a threat to both my European and Scottish identities,by insisting on the primacy of the British identity over all others, and so I have with some sadness changed my mind on Scottish independence.
    You do not successfully argue against division by creating more division.

    I flirted with your position in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but it was a mistake. Supporting Scottish Independence will have consequences. There seem to be far too many people egging it on in order to own English Brexit supporters. Deeply irresponsible.
    Here's the problem: they're deeply worried they might be WRONG about Brexit.

    Egging on Scottish independence gives them something, anything, one thing, that they can be right about over Brexit, and to them that's what it's all about.
  • In practice, the only thing which can really reverse the move towards increasing support for Scottish independence is an effective non-SNP political movement in Scotland. The Scottish Conservatives have a respectable level of support but only as a relatively minor party, and the antics of Boris certainly don't help. So the key is the extent to which Labour can regain some of the lost ground - after all, it's not long ago that Labour totally dominated Scottish politics. Is it unthinkable that they could revive, in a big enough way to make a difference?

    There is some encouragement in that Keir Starmer seems to get reasonable levels of approval in Scotland (positive 16% in the latest poll). But, but, there is the Richard Leonard roadblock. Any Scots who want to save the Union should be striving to get that roadblock dismantled.

    SLab are on 13% for constituency and list votes in the associated Ipsos Holyrood poll.

    Leonard really isn't the problem, the problem is people like you suggesting getting rid of him but being unable to name any suitable replacement.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the SNP + Greens winning a majority is as close to a cert as you'll get at the next Holyrood elections.

    Obviously Sturgeon then requests a section 30 which is then refused by Johnson. That lot is very easy to game out.

    What is Sturgeon's next move ? Court of Session ? Advisory referendum of her own ?
    An advisory referendum would likely be boycotted by unionists, the nats would almost certainly win. Does she could that then go to the Court of Session with prima facie evidence that the union of crowns is essentially done ?

    I've bet on an SNP majority and bought the Greens.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    guybrush said:

    Interesting article on contract tracing systems here. Touches upon the practical problems of implementing them, and the experiences of China, S. Korea, and Germany:

    Is contract tracing now futile for the COVID-19 epidemic in most of the world? Probably yes. The infection is already too widespread for disease eradication to be feasible in most places. It might be useful in slowing the spread of the epidemic in areas where hospital resources are at risk of congestion. This benefit will come, however, at considerable costs to the privacy rights and civil liberties of traced individuals, often with no public health benefit because of testing errors.
    https://inference-review.com/article/on-the-futility-of-contact-tracing

    So, even if the implementation of the Nationwide system wasn't such a bodge, it might be wishful thinking to expect it to do a lot of good. To my mind there are two feasible options given where we are in the UK:

    1. Another 2-3 month "proper" lockdown to eradicate the virus as far as possible (schools shut, no hospitality, forcibly quarantine new arrivals at airports). Following opening up, implement contract tracing, ride roughshod over civil liberties - for the greater good. The China playbook, if you will - see also NZ and Aus.
    2. Open up, focus resources on shielding the vulnerable and on increasing NHS capacity and resilience. Await herd immunity, and (fingers crossed a vaccine). Deaths, but at least the economy survives ok and life returns to normality for most. More akin to Sweden.
    I think there's a case to be made for doing the first, but I don't see the political or societal will to make the sacrifices involved. I personally would plump for something along the lines of the 2nd given where we are. The government seem to be a bit lost, and going for the middle ground.
    The problem with 2 is that the economy won't survive OK and life won't return to normality for most if large numbers of people are dying. In addition to it being extremely inhumane, of course.
    The reason it keeps coming up is that while it's a mirage, it appeals to the "For God's sake, let's just get it over with!" impulse within our brains.

    We want there to be a straightforward choice, even if it would cost. A or B, which is it? Make a choice!

    If it turns out not to be a straightforward A or B where we can weigh them up and make a choice to get it over with - we don't like it. That's why it keeps coming up.

    - The economy and public health are inextricably linked. It's not one or the other. It's always both, and every approach will fuck both up to one degree or another, and it's not a seesaw.
    - If restrictions aren't legally applied, they'll be unofficially applied. It happens everywhere. It just means that more deaths are incurred.
    - Herd immunity ain't coming without a vaccine. If Manaus didn't get there, even with "let it rip" and burying so many thousands of their (primarily young) population, nowhere's getting there through the virus.
    - Follow that route, and as well as extra deaths, the economy will very likely get screwed even worse.

    There's no good route out without a vaccine. Or ubiquitous near-instant testing.
    You're absolutely right. I think the strand of anti-lockdown commentary which argues we are being too blanket risk averse, or that the restrictions should be more "trust the people" a la Sweden, is respectable (albeit wrong), but the more extreme stuff, which is a lot of it, is simply howling at the moon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Foxy said:

    Brexit is a stick to beat the Unionist cause with in Scotland but it’s not the fundamental driver of Scottish nationalist sentiment, which was there (and growing) regardless.

    Brexit crystallised it though. Whether Remain or Leave, the way that Brexit has been managed with complete contempt for Scottish opinion has been the final nail in the coffin of the Union. Being ignored generates resentment.

    I have some sympathy for @DavidL and his British identity being forcibly stripped away from him by the Nationalists. It is very similar to how I feel about having my European Identity and rights removed.
    You don’t have a European identity. There is no such thing.

    British identity is legitimate and a tragedy that it might be lost.
    You may not have a European identity. I do, as do many other people. I am Scottish, British and European. Leaving the EU hasn't stopped me feeling European, and Scotland leaving the UK won't stop me feeling British. Pre Brexit I thought that all those identities could coexist, but Brexit demonstrated that the British state was a threat to both my European and Scottish identities,by insisting on the primacy of the British identity over all others, and so I have with some sadness changed my mind on Scottish independence.
    You do not successfully argue against division by creating more division.

    I flirted with your position in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but it was a mistake. Supporting Scottish Independence will have consequences. There seem to be far too many people egging it on in order to own English Brexit supporters. Deeply irresponsible.
    Here's the problem: they're deeply worried they might be WRONG about Brexit.

    Egging on Scottish independence gives them something, anything, one thing, that they can be right about over Brexit, and to them that's what it's all about.
    *We* are deeply worried we might be wrong about Brexit? :lol:
  • I don't see those opinions as inconsistent. It says to me that the median voter in NC has a fairly low opinion of both Trump and Biden
    Which indicates that they're quite reasonable.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Heath Government did suspend Stormont in Spring 1972 when it decided to impose Direct Rule - despite fierce Loyalist opposition. Were the SNP to declare UDI, I could see Westminster going down that road - but have no expectation that Sturgeon would be that stupid.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    Remember @Big_G_NorthWales you’re not a real Tory because you voted for Blair once. 🌚
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    guybrush said:

    Razor wire along Offa's Dyke. Hurrah!

    Keep the Welsh out!

    That's a policy I can back wholeheartedly.
    Build a wall. Trump was right.
    If we want to keep the Welsh out, just keep releasing sheep into Wales, that'll keep the Welsh occupied.
    baaah
    Sheep shagging keeps us very happy.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    In practice, the only thing which can really reverse the move towards increasing support for Scottish independence is an effective non-SNP political movement in Scotland. The Scottish Conservatives have a respectable level of support but only as a relatively minor party, and the antics of Boris certainly don't help. So the key is the extent to which Labour can regain some of the lost ground - after all, it's not long ago that Labour totally dominated Scottish politics. Is it unthinkable that they could revive, in a big enough way to make a difference?

    There is some encouragement in that Keir Starmer seems to get reasonable levels of approval in Scotland (positive 16% in the latest poll). But, but, there is the Richard Leonard roadblock. Any Scots who want to save the Union should be striving to get that roadblock dismantled.

    SLab are on 13% for constituency and list votes in the associated Ipsos Holyrood poll.

    Leonard really isn't the problem, the problem is people like you suggesting getting rid of him but being unable to name any suitable replacement.
    Comres has them on 18% for both.
  • With Peston's track record no deal it is then.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1316385341469794311

    BRACE! BRACE! BRACE!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I respect the SNP.

    I loathe anyone who thinks its acceptable to use the military or police to suppress voters in a free society.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    19724
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Foxy said:

    Brexit is a stick to beat the Unionist cause with in Scotland but it’s not the fundamental driver of Scottish nationalist sentiment, which was there (and growing) regardless.

    Brexit crystallised it though. Whether Remain or Leave, the way that Brexit has been managed with complete contempt for Scottish opinion has been the final nail in the coffin of the Union. Being ignored generates resentment.

    I have some sympathy for @DavidL and his British identity being forcibly stripped away from him by the Nationalists. It is very similar to how I feel about having my European Identity and rights removed.
    You don’t have a European identity. There is no such thing.

    British identity is legitimate and a tragedy that it might be lost.
    You may not have a European identity. I do, as do many other people. I am Scottish, British and European. Leaving the EU hasn't stopped me feeling European, and Scotland leaving the UK won't stop me feeling British. Pre Brexit I thought that all those identities could coexist, but Brexit demonstrated that the British state was a threat to both my European and Scottish identities,by insisting on the primacy of the British identity over all others, and so I have with some sadness changed my mind on Scottish independence.
    You do not successfully argue against division by creating more division.

    I flirted with your position in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but it was a mistake. Supporting Scottish Independence will have consequences. There seem to be far too many people egging it on in order to own English Brexit supporters. Deeply irresponsible.
    Here's the problem: they're deeply worried they might be WRONG about Brexit.

    Egging on Scottish independence gives them something, anything, one thing, that they can be right about over Brexit, and to them that's what it's all about.
    Ha ha ha. Seriously?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    I respect the SNP.

    I loathe anyone who thinks its acceptable to use the military or police to suppress voters in a free society.
    Catholics of a certain age in Norn Iron say hello.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    Remember @Big_G_NorthWales you’re not a real Tory because you voted for Blair once. 🌚
    Twice
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be differences within the Tory Party over the format of Brexit, over Cummings or the extent of Covid restrictions but one thing that unites all us Tories from Peterhead to Bournemouth is a loathing of the SNP and we will never give into them!!

    So after independence, the policy of the Conservatives will be to reconstitute the union and they will put that in their manifestos on both sides of the border?
    I can understand people disliking their opponents political philosophy, but 'loathing' seems a strong word. Why take that view; seems counter-productive to me.
    The SNP loathe the Tories, just the feeling is mutual that is all
    Speak for yourself

    This conservative does not loath the SNP or the Scots

    Most of my living family outside Wales are Scots

    I do not agree with the SNP but keep your loathing to yourself and your tanks, you Sassenach
    Remember @Big_G_NorthWales you’re not a real Tory because you voted for Blair once. 🌚
    Twice
    Aha. Whilst I myself never voted for Blair. Me being too young to vote is neither here nor there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I think the doubling time has ticked over to 11 days.
  • With Peston's track record no deal it is then.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1316385341469794311

    BRACE! BRACE! BRACE!

    Right then, better get to CostCo to stock up for the No-Deal Brexit shortages...
  • National circuit breaker coming in shortly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Foxy said:

    Brexit is a stick to beat the Unionist cause with in Scotland but it’s not the fundamental driver of Scottish nationalist sentiment, which was there (and growing) regardless.

    Brexit crystallised it though. Whether Remain or Leave, the way that Brexit has been managed with complete contempt for Scottish opinion has been the final nail in the coffin of the Union. Being ignored generates resentment.

    I have some sympathy for @DavidL and his British identity being forcibly stripped away from him by the Nationalists. It is very similar to how I feel about having my European Identity and rights removed.
    You don’t have a European identity. There is no such thing.

    British identity is legitimate and a tragedy that it might be lost.
    Since I believe we're the same age, this relates to what I said about the difference between our grandparents generation and our own.

    70 years ago British identity was far more real than it is today. Nowadays, besides things like "Team GB" (which always feels a bit forced compared to our normal home nation support) what really lives on about 'British' identity in 2020?

    British identity did exist once upon a time. I'm far from convinced it still does.
    Interesting and thoughtful post. Perhaps people are increasingly meaning different things about identity (which would excuse Casino's trollish comment) - more about recognition of a common sense of purpose and lifestyle in the face of a scary world, less about shared history and language.

    But identity per se is broad brush anyway. Casino and I speak the same language and no doubt have other points of cultural overlap, but I find him stranger than, say, Angela Merkel, and I expect he feels the same about me.
    Foxy posted the trollish comment by provoking me with his European identity bollocks - he knows perfectly well it winds me up, as does his insults directed at Britain which is his country and one he should feel hugely proud of.

    If he doesn't like it here he can piss off and live somewhere else. An option you'd think anyone would take off that holds this country in such low regard.
    Oh dear, I had begun to like some of your posts, and thought that maybe I had you wrong. This latest one really marks you out for the nationalistic dullard I originally thought you were. Those of us that think Brexit is a pile of shit and Boris Johnson is an even greater pillock than you are going nowhere. We love our country, and quite of few of us have served our country in various ways. We just think that such a wonderful place with a great history shouldn't be left to the lowest political denominator that is represented by anyone who could write the petty minded divisive bollox that you vomited up above. If you don't like people that have different views to you, or those who might express loyalties beyond the nation state then I recommend you are the person that fucks off to North Korea or other such armpit of the world where you can focus on groupthink and worshipping a leader in the way you think others should do so. Twat.
    It's quite simple. If you detest the UK, don't like it, identify with it, or feel any loyalty to it, why stay?

    That's not being rude. It's just a lifestyle choice that logically follows - why wouldn't you go somewhere else? I'm British and 100% loyal to Britain and the flag and will never go anywhere else. I'd be the last to leave.

    On your broader point, you do have me wrong. You get reflexively insulting when the matter of Brexit comes up - a bit like how MalcolmG does over Scottish independence - so I don't take any of it personally. It's water off a duck's back.

    You are clearly a very grumpy and angry old man, though.

    I might kindly advise a bit of therapy?
  • TimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump must have seen the latest Georgia poll
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316385654587170822

    Or the colour of the people standing in line early voting ...
    It will be interesting to see turnout figures in Georgia in due course. Democrats might count themselves lucky Rev Raphael Warnock put himself forward for the Senate special election there - a charismatic baptist preacher from a humble background in Savannah, who has had a polling surge and may help them a bit with black turnout. I appreciate down-ballot contests don't do that much to change the dynamic in a Presidential year, but could be important in a close one in terms of getting people out who aren't necessarily particularly enthused by Biden.
  • TimT said:

    TimT said:

    Using masks, but I think they exceeded the rule of 6....

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1316264613139435521?s=20

    Homes under the hammer is getting dark.
    Any explanation as to what is going on and why?
    They are the new Boris Covid Marshals, they heard somebody was holding a gathering of more than 6 people...
    Seriously? Look more like street thugs
    If twitter is to believed, some sort of dispute among the traveller community. According to the Daily Mail, 3 people already been arrested....probably not the best idea to film yourself doing this sort of thing.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Scott_xP said:
    Super Keir riding the wave of the majority?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump must have seen the latest Georgia poll
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1316385654587170822

    Vets? He's after the All Creatures Great & Small vote.
    I had a very confusing conversation with one of my American relatives' friends one Thanksgiving when they introduced him to me as a vet.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    With Peston's track record no deal it is then.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1316385341469794311

    BRACE! BRACE! BRACE!

    He's right this time I think. With Covid exploding the Cummings no deal tendency will be overruled by saner voices. There's a clear sign both sides are ready to compromise. The deal will still be shit though.
This discussion has been closed.