If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
Indeed.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson: Trump’s flaws alone won’t bring skeptical Black voters out to vote for Biden
That article nails it. Things like crime are a major issue for the Black community because they are the ones that tend to get impacted the most. Look at the recent murder rates in cities such as Chicago and Philly, they have gone through the roof.
Biden is offering nothing to these voters, just a whole load of platitudes about BLM and systemic racism. It's like seeing your wages cut 10% and someone saying isn't it great GDP has risen 5%. All his talk means nothing to them on a day to day level.
Trump offers them nothing PLUS a validation of white supremacists.
I'd take the vanilla nothing.
To many of the Black voters considering Trump, the Democrats are not offering them a vanilla nothing, their view is they are offering them a continued world of rundown cities, rampant crime and broken families. Now, we may not think that sitting over there and having the luxury of being able to spend time on a political betting website but, having spent many a hour, in a fair few of the run-down LA neighbourhoods, I wouldn't wish that life on my worst enemy.
Govt unwisely raised expectations things would go back to normal much earlier than was even vaguely plausible.
I am generally a critic of the government but think they are being harshly treated here. Alternating between using the brake and accelerator is the right way forward at the moment, but wont be popular with either the dominant shut everything down group or the keep everything open group.
I am glad we were able to socialise and enjoy summer far more than we would have done under a continued lockdown. I can accept that some further restrictions were needed to reduce the risk and size of a big second wave.
They are certainly making a lot of mistakes but not sure this is one.
It’s the corollary of this government’s apparent obsession with wanting to be able to give state aid to favoured companies. If your business or sector is not one like by Cummings or his friends, you get thrown under the bus.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
That can't be the reason, reported date didn't look more scary, specimen date has the steeper climb. Reported date effecticely smears out the increase over multiple days making the gradient lower.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
Indeed.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson: Trump’s flaws alone won’t bring skeptical Black voters out to vote for Biden
That article nails it. Things like crime are a major issue for the Black community because they are the ones that tend to get impacted the most. Look at the recent murder rates in cities such as Chicago and Philly, they have gone through the roof.
Biden is offering nothing to these voters, just a whole load of platitudes about BLM and systemic racism. It's like seeing your wages cut 10% and someone saying isn't it great GDP has risen 5%. All his talk means nothing to them on a day to day level.
Trump offers them nothing PLUS a validation of white supremacists.
I'd take the vanilla nothing.
To many of the Black voters considering Trump, the Democrats are not offering them a vanilla nothing, their view is they are offering them a continued world of rundown cities, rampant crime and broken families. Now, we may not think that sitting over there and having the luxury of being able to spend time on a political betting website but, having spent many a hour, in a fair few of the run-down LA neighbourhoods, I wouldn't wish that life on my worst enemy.
And Trump offers that PLUS a validation of white supremacists. Adding insult to injury.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
I am sensing he is the new plato.
Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.
For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.
Also, the point about Plato was that she predicted a Trump win this time four years ago. I hope nobody is the new her.
She didn't. ISTR She thought Hilary would probably win. She wanted Trump to win and thought his chances were being seriously underplayed. So maybe similar to Mr Ed who seems to fulfil the same role. As he said he hasn't bet yet.
She gave a percentage chance for a Trump win almost exactly in line with the markets.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
It is worth remembering, though, that if
- Black turnout is up 30% and - Trump doubles his share of the black vote to 18%
Then Biden's absolute lead (in terms of number of votes) actually increases.
91 - 9 = an 82 vote lead
107 - 23 = an 84 vote lead
If he can get Black turnout up.
But I don't see anything that will do that.
A lot of people on here will say "BLM" and "Kamala Harris". However, rising crime is more of an issue for many Black voters and Kamala Harris is not that popular in the Black community.
Personal view is that Black turnout will be probably similar to 2016, maybe a touch lower.
There's the (possibly apocryphal) story that the original plan was to call it the "Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne" - until someone spotted the acronym
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
Same here on the betting - where I have lost money is where I let a blinkered view cover some of the evidence in front of my eyes (May in 2017 being the obvious one). I do not intend to do it again. If I think Biden will win big, I will happily vote on him.
There are a few other snippets though which are starting to come through, particularly in things such as voting registrations in swing states which suggest it may be tighter.
I'm quite happy to leave my bets until closer to the election. I think there will be some very good betting opportunities particularly around the individual states and / or the EC votes, but it is too uncertain yet and I am useless when it comes to the whole cashing out on Betfair malarkey.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
It is worth remembering, though, that if
- Black turnout is up 30% and - Trump doubles his share of the black vote to 18%
Then Biden's absolute lead (in terms of number of votes) actually increases.
91 - 9 = an 82 vote lead
107 - 23 = an 84 vote lead
If he can get Black turnout up.
But I don't see anything that will do that.
A lot of people on here will say "BLM" and "Kamala Harris". However, rising crime is more of an issue for many Black voters and Kamala Harris is not that popular in the Black community.
Personal view is that Black turnout will be probably similar to 2016, maybe a touch lower.
We will see. I must admit, when you see the President of the United States praising the Proud Boys, it doesn't immediately think he's likely to do well with black voters. But maybe you're right, we shall see in a coupe of wees.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
I am sensing he is the new plato.
Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.
For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.
Please keep commenting, and ignore the Lefty morons.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
Indeed.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson: Trump’s flaws alone won’t bring skeptical Black voters out to vote for Biden
That article nails it. Things like crime are a major issue for the Black community because they are the ones that tend to get impacted the most. Look at the recent murder rates in cities such as Chicago and Philly, they have gone through the roof.
Biden is offering nothing to these voters, just a whole load of platitudes about BLM and systemic racism. It's like seeing your wages cut 10% and someone saying isn't it great GDP has risen 5%. All his talk means nothing to them on a day to day level.
Trump offers them nothing PLUS a validation of white supremacists.
I'd take the vanilla nothing.
To many of the Black voters considering Trump, the Democrats are not offering them a vanilla nothing, their view is they are offering them a continued world of rundown cities, rampant crime and broken families. Now, we may not think that sitting over there and having the luxury of being able to spend time on a political betting website but, having spent many a hour, in a fair few of the run-down LA neighbourhoods, I wouldn't wish that life on my worst enemy.
And Trump offers that PLUS a validation of white supremacists. Adding insult to injury.
Go to any major American conurbation. It is really hard to find any evidence whatsoever that having a Democrat controlled administration does wonders for the Black community. Just because Trump doesn't do something doesn't mean that it is acceptable (or that Black people living in those cities should accept it)
The IFS has become a lesser institution since he left. It takes a political view of policy when it didn't used to. It seems to think it has a remit to save the poor when it doesn't, it has a remit to force the government to follow good fiscal policy, sometimes this lines up with that, sometimes it doesn't and the IFS is not able to separate themselves from this new aim they seem to have picked up.
The fact that the current idiot in charge was calling the spending plans of the Tory party "unambitious" and the Labour Corbynite spending plans as "ambitious" is an indictment of the whole organisation. They aren't supposed to be judging ambition.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
Hang on. You can either be predicting a Trump win or be saying that you have no idea what will happen - but not really both.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
Hang on. You can either be predicting a Trump win or be saying that you have no idea what will happen - but not really both.
That's fair enough. What I am saying is that I believe Trump will win (which is why I had that bet with you) but I am not so certain about it that I am willing to commit the sums I normally would do. Does that make sense?
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity are resigning matters, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
I am sensing he is the new plato.
Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.
For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.
Please keep commenting, and ignore the Lefty morons.
And AFTER the election too, one hopes.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I will keep commenting and take the flak.
There's the (possibly apocryphal) story that the original plan was to call it the "Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne" - until someone spotted the acronym
They were going to merge with the Tyne & Wear Academy of Teaching
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity is a resigning matter, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
The key point amongst a lot of key points is that she (apparently) lied about the reason for returning home on Tuesday.
That lie is a deal breaker.
It takes it from panicked heat of the moment action to deliberate subterfuge.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
Indeed.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson: Trump’s flaws alone won’t bring skeptical Black voters out to vote for Biden
That article nails it. Things like crime are a major issue for the Black community because they are the ones that tend to get impacted the most. Look at the recent murder rates in cities such as Chicago and Philly, they have gone through the roof.
Biden is offering nothing to these voters, just a whole load of platitudes about BLM and systemic racism. It's like seeing your wages cut 10% and someone saying isn't it great GDP has risen 5%. All his talk means nothing to them on a day to day level.
Trump offers them nothing PLUS a validation of white supremacists.
I'd take the vanilla nothing.
To many of the Black voters considering Trump, the Democrats are not offering them a vanilla nothing, their view is they are offering them a continued world of rundown cities, rampant crime and broken families. Now, we may not think that sitting over there and having the luxury of being able to spend time on a political betting website but, having spent many a hour, in a fair few of the run-down LA neighbourhoods, I wouldn't wish that life on my worst enemy.
And Trump offers that PLUS a validation of white supremacists. Adding insult to injury.
What does that plan consist of other than the public holiday ? Other than that, it sounds like the prospectus for another of his scams.
Biden is offering $1.9 trillion over ten years for education, including universal pre-K, more funding for schools serving low-income students, two years of guaranteed-debtless college, and tuition-free public college for lower-income families, alongside a large expansion of publicly funded healthcare.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
Hang on. You can either be predicting a Trump win or be saying that you have no idea what will happen - but not really both.
That's fair enough. What I am saying is that I believe Trump will win (which is why I had that bet with you) but I am not so certain about it that I am willing to commit the sums I normally would do. Does that make sense?
Ok yes. But he's a clear outsider on the betting now so don't delay forever and miss out on the value. I think he's still too short but you must feel the dead opposite.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
I am sensing he is the new plato.
Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.
For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.
Also, the point about Plato was that she predicted a Trump win this time four years ago. I hope nobody is the new her.
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity are resigning matters, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
Loving the way you slither from drunk to careless to speeding, why not chuck in parking tickets?
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity is a resigning matter, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
The key point amongst a lot of key points is that she (apparently) lied about the reason for returning home on Tuesday.
That lie is a deal breaker.
It takes it from panicked heat of the moment action to deliberate subterfuge.
You mean lying is now a resigning matter for an MP ? There really will be no-one left in the House.
Margaret comes across as not too bright. She panicked and lied. Out of interest, have you never panicked and lied?
Anyhow, let's hear her defence before you blow her up.
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity is a resigning matter, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
The key point amongst a lot of key points is that she (apparently) lied about the reason for returning home on Tuesday.
That lie is a deal breaker.
It takes it from panicked heat of the moment action to deliberate subterfuge.
You mean lying is now a resigning matter for an MP ? There really will be no-one left in the House.
Margaret comes across as not too bright. She panicked and lied. Out of interest, have you never panicked and lied?
Anyhow, let's hear her defence before you blow her up.
Has Sturgeon demanded the resignation of Derek Mackay?
There's the (possibly apocryphal) story that the original plan was to call it the "Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne" - until someone spotted the acronym
They were going to merge with the Tyne & Wear Academy of Teaching
There is a similar story in the 1980s that Portsmouth Poly was planning at one time to become the South Hampshire Institute of Technology.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
Hang on. You can either be predicting a Trump win or be saying that you have no idea what will happen - but not really both.
That's fair enough. What I am saying is that I believe Trump will win (which is why I had that bet with you) but I am not so certain about it that I am willing to commit the sums I normally would do. Does that make sense?
Ok yes. But he's a clear outsider on the betting now so don't delay forever and miss out on the value. I think he's still too short but you must feel the dead opposite.
Still not 100% sure. Last time, I bet on the day on him at 6/1 and made a nice amount of money. I know I won't get those odds again but I suspect betting sentiment will go further against Trump over the next few weeks.
I personally still think the rule of 6 is working. Anecdotally my social circle is making it work because it's very easy to understand. 6 or less yes, 7 or more no.
Six of us went to the pub and one of our other mates said he was on his way down to join us. One of my dopey mates asked the barmaid if it was ok for him to sit with us or not and she went "Lalalala I didn't hear that"
You should all be fined and the pub shut down indefinitely.
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity are resigning matters, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
Loving the way you slither from drunk to careless to speeding, why not chuck in parking tickets?
Which of that lot was drunk?
To give two specific drink driving examples, Eric Joyce MP and Bethan Jenkins AM.
Wiki tell me "On 18 November 2010, Eric Joyce was arrested for failing to provide a breath test following a motoring incident in Falkirk. He pleaded guilty in court the following day and was fined £400 and banned from driving for a year. Joyce resigned from his position as Shadow Northern Ireland Minister and apologised for his behaviour"
He resigned as a minster, but he did not resign as an MP. Nor was he asked to.
To give a second example, Bethan Jenkins AM. was convicted of drink driving, She remains in fact a Plaid Cymru AM (she was suspended by the party and then quickly let back in after receiving treatment for depression).
There are two specific examples of drink driving involved Labour and Nationalist politicians who did not face enforced resignation.
The other cases I mentioned were for careless driving or repeated speeding offences..
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
Indeed.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson: Trump’s flaws alone won’t bring skeptical Black voters out to vote for Biden
That article nails it. Things like crime are a major issue for the Black community because they are the ones that tend to get impacted the most. Look at the recent murder rates in cities such as Chicago and Philly, they have gone through the roof.
Biden is offering nothing to these voters, just a whole load of platitudes about BLM and systemic racism. It's like seeing your wages cut 10% and someone saying isn't it great GDP has risen 5%. All his talk means nothing to them on a day to day level.
Trump offers them nothing PLUS a validation of white supremacists.
I'd take the vanilla nothing.
To many of the Black voters considering Trump, the Democrats are not offering them a vanilla nothing, their view is they are offering them a continued world of rundown cities, rampant crime and broken families. Now, we may not think that sitting over there and having the luxury of being able to spend time on a political betting website but, having spent many a hour, in a fair few of the run-down LA neighbourhoods, I wouldn't wish that life on my worst enemy.
And Trump offers that PLUS a validation of white supremacists. Adding insult to injury.
What does that plan consist of other than the public holiday ? Other than that, it sounds like the prospectus for another of his scams.
Biden is offering $1.9 trillion over ten years for education, including universal pre-K, more funding for schools serving low-income students, two years of guaranteed-debtless college, and tuition-free public college for lower-income families, alongside a large expansion of publicly funded healthcare.
Most of the money for funding for schools will go into the pockets of teachers' unions, including pension and salary rises and I think it is fair to say that the biggest beneficiary of the large amounts of extra money on higher education will be the middle classes. Why not take that extra money you are spending on higher education and spend it on urban regeneration?
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity are resigning matters, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
Loving the way you slither from drunk to careless to speeding, why not chuck in parking tickets?
Which of that lot was drunk?
To give two specific drink driving examples, Eric Joyce MP and Bethan Jenkins AM.
Wiki tell me "On 18 November 2010, Eric Joyce was arrested for failing to provide a breath test following a motoring incident in Falkirk. He pleaded guilty in court the following day and was fined £400 and banned from driving for a year. Joyce resigned from his position as Shadow Northern Ireland Minister and apologised for his behaviour"
He resigned as a minster, but he did not resign as an MP. Nor was he asked to.
To give a second example, Bethan Jenkins AM. was convicted of drink driving, She remains in fact a Plaid Cymru AM (she was suspended by the party and then quickly let back in after receiving treatment for depression).
There are two specific examples of drink driving involved Labour and Nationalist politicians who did not face enforced resignation.
The other cases I mentioned were for careless driving or related speeding offences..
Yes, I thought that would fall apart. Are you the bloke who thinks Boadicea was Welsh? You should choose your battles a bit more carefully.
She should resign immediately, very soon someone from the house will test positive, and then someone from the train will test positive, and she will be blamed, regardless if she was the cause. Someone may well die, and she will be blamed. Police throw the book at her maximum fine.
Gosh, poor woman, I hope not. No-one should be blamed for passing on a virus without intent.
I feel terribly sorry for her.
Me too. Ferrier was thoughtless rather than ill intentioned and she seems genuinely sorry. We all have to take the consequences of our actions but we don't all get pilloried in the harsh light of the media.
Drunk drivers who kill people are without exception thoughtless rather than ill intentioned, and genuinely sorry after the event.
I realise that. There should be appropriate consequences, but they should be objective - the same for everyone in the same circumstances - and they should be fair. It is the hounding of Ms Ferrier by the media and the public that bothers me.
She comes across as unintelligent & she certainly deserves to be fined.
I guess she set off on her journey pretty sure her test was going to come back negative. And then she panicked when she got the result.
She was stupid & thoughtless. But, Margaret Ferrier does not deserve to be a human sacrifice.
I actually find it unpleasantly creepy that Nicola Sturgeon keeps on calling Margaret Ferrier her friend.
Like EMF, if I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country.
It must be a very scary experience being Nicola Sturgeon's friend .... I guess, as Alex S & others have found out.
Ferrier's behaviour is not just thoughtless; getting on to a train knowing you have Covid is like getting behind the wheel of a car when you know you are drunk. She had alternatives, however inconvenient. All MP's have London accommodation. I do think she has been selfishly culpable and I'm glad that the leader of her political party is clearly and publicly advising her to resign as an MP. Compare and contrast to Johnson and Cummings.
We have not yet heard from Margaret Ferrier -- I normally like to hear both the case for the prosecution and the case for the defence. If you just hear the case for the prosecution, you convict every time.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity are resigning matters, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
Loving the way you slither from drunk to careless to speeding, why not chuck in parking tickets?
Which of that lot was drunk?
To give two specific drink driving examples, Eric Joyce MP and Bethan Jenkins AM.
Wiki tell me "On 18 November 2010, Eric Joyce was arrested for failing to provide a breath test following a motoring incident in Falkirk. He pleaded guilty in court the following day and was fined £400 and banned from driving for a year. Joyce resigned from his position as Shadow Northern Ireland Minister and apologised for his behaviour"
He resigned as a minster, but he did not resign as an MP. Nor was he asked to.
To give a second example, Bethan Jenkins AM. was convicted of drink driving, She remains in fact a Plaid Cymru AM (she was suspended by the party and then quickly let back in after receiving treatment for depression).
There are two specific examples of drink driving involved Labour and Nationalist politicians who did not face enforced resignation.
The other cases I mentioned were for careless driving or related speeding offences..
Yes, I thought that would fall apart. Are you the bloke who thinks Boadicea was Welsh? You should choose your battles a bit more carefully.
And are you the person who doesn't understand climate change science ?
Hodges is an idiot. What part of "if we do nothing and it continues to double" do these idiots opposing what was done not understand?
I can respect a philosophical idea of saying that it is better to let it run wild amongst the youth and not panic, but the bad science of people like Hodges is what really gets to me.
Pressure should be increasing on innumerate liberal arts journos to actually correct their scientific and mathematical ignorance, or give way to colleagues who actually have a clue in the relevant area.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
I'm surprised that Trump hasn't claimed that China unleashed covid to stop him being re-elected.
And that in return he is going to cancel all US bonds owned by China.
Given the consistency of the Biden lead, I'm moving AZ into the blue column from TCTC. The Senate race looks promising for the Democrats with Kelly holding a 9-point lead.
Emerson has Biden up 52-45 in New Hampshire while a rare poll from New York by Siena has Biden ahead 61-29 (in 2016 Clinton won 59-37) so a 5% swing to Biden in a solidly Blue state.
There's the (possibly apocryphal) story that the original plan was to call it the "Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne" - until someone spotted the acronym
They were going to merge with the Tyne & Wear Academy of Teaching
There is a similar story in the 1980s that Portsmouth Poly was planning at one time to become the South Hampshire Institute of Technology.
There's the (possibly apocryphal) story that the original plan was to call it the "Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne" - until someone spotted the acronym
They were going to merge with the Tyne & Wear Academy of Teaching
There is a similar story in the 1980s that Portsmouth Poly was planning at one time to become the South Hampshire Institute of Technology.
There's the (possibly apocryphal) story that the original plan was to call it the "Central University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne" - until someone spotted the acronym
They were going to merge with the Tyne & Wear Academy of Teaching
There is a similar story in the 1980s that Portsmouth Poly was planning at one time to become the South Hampshire Institute of Technology.
Students would graduate with turd class honours.
It was City University but apart from that the story is true - I saw and had (but I've lost) the proofs over the years.
I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
University of Glasgow isn't crappie is it? Or the University of Liverpool?
Manchester Met and Coventry have had outbreaks.
But as I said I'd like to see some data.
Whatever the overall situation it is still an astonishing outbreak at Northumbria.
According to the Email we received from the Vice Chancellor, they are still doing tests of housemates and close contacts. Based on that, the final figure could well much higher...
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
"Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling [Covid-19]" ??
What planet are you on? Seriously, who are all the leaders who have been worse than Trump?
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
"Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling [Covid-19]" ??
What planet are you on? Seriously, who are all the leaders who have been worse than Trump?
Hodges is an idiot. What part of "if we do nothing and it continues to double" do these idiots opposing what was done not understand?
I can respect a philosophical idea of saying that it is better to let it run wild amongst the youth and not panic, but the bad science of people like Hodges is what really gets to me.
Pressure should be increasing on innumerate liberal arts journos to actually correct their scientific and mathematical ignorance, or give way to colleagues who actually have a clue in the relevant area.
Irrelevant. They presented a counterfactual - if we do nothing - where the condition was never going to be satisfied, and gave an unsophisticated audience a picture of something which was never going to happen disguised as a picture of something which might happen. "This is not a forecast, but here is what we - experts in the field - think might happen in the future" is like "This is not a threat, but we know where you live and where your children go to school."
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
I think the IBD/TIPP sampling is suspect and I need to see other pollsters showing this mythical closing of the gap before I become convinced.
Trump won White voters by 21 points in 2016 - most polls have that gap substantially smaller and this is where Biden is doing well - among white voters who comprise around 70% of those who will vote.
I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
University of Glasgow isn't crappie is it? Or the University of Liverpool?
Manchester Met and Coventry have had outbreaks.
But as I said I'd like to see some data.
Whatever the overall situation it is still an astonishing outbreak at Northumbria.
According to the Email we received from the Vice Chancellor, they are still doing tests of housemates and close contacts. Based on that, the final figure could well much higher...
Stay safe and act like everyone you come into contact has it.
I'm not sure if HYFUD has beaten me to it but Biden's lead has been cut with IBD / TIPP to 2.7% from 5.6% amongst likely voters with a poll that was conducted AFTER the Presidential debate....
I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
All the different ranking systems have some flaws, but the Guardian often system ends up boosting many old polys for single years, and whose position is not matched in any of the other that look at national or international comparisons.
You aren't going to convince me at Northumbria University is the 27th best in the country...and that it has shot up from 47 in a single year.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
I am sensing he is the new plato.
Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.
For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.
Please keep commenting, and ignore the Lefty morons.
And AFTER the election too, one hopes.
Mr. Ed is a valuable resource to this site and provides insights from a pro-Trump perspective that is sadly lacking on here from anywhere else.
He is vociferously and personally attacked by some posters because of this.
I have zero respect for them. Quite frankly, I'd rather they were banned than Mr. Ed bullied off the site because he refuses to me yet another little Sir Echo.
If you want an echo chamber go and form a Facebook group or customise your own Twitter feed.
This is a betting site and I value opposing and conflicting views - *especially* when they go against the grain of what everyone else is saying.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
"Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling [Covid-19]" ??
What planet are you on? Seriously, who are all the leaders who have been worse than Trump?
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
Actually not because they not view him as racist. Their view is that the Democrats have treated the Black vote as cannon fodder for too long and are quite happy to keep Black people poor and impoverished to ensure that they keep their votes. When you look at places like Baltimore and Detroit, you can see their point. Also, there is a growing view that they do not want to be treated as victims.
I know it goes against the consensus on this site but - from a betting perspective at least - you should be aware of it because it's a growing factor
I have no problem with opposing views on this site, however implausible.
All the evidence I see is that Trump is too short in the betting, and I think there is an underestimate of the possibility of a Biden landslide.
I reckon Trump won't break 200 EV, and possibly substantially less.
And that is fair enough. I can see an argument for that. There are a lot of people who hate his guts. I have said it before but I will repeat it, I have not bet yet because I have no idea how this will go and I can see a scenario where there is a sudden move to one candidate or another. But I can also see a scenario where - if IBD is in the right ballpark - states like NV, MN and maybe even VA come into play
If it hadn't been for CV19, then given a strong economy, I would have been extremely surprised if Trump had not won reelection.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
"Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling [Covid-19]" ??
What planet are you on? Seriously, who are all the leaders who have been worse than Trump?
I did my undergraduate degree at nice Russell Group Newcastle University and was full of snobbery for the “ex-polys”. I am now doing a Master of Law degree at Northumbria and realise the snobbery was total rubbish. If anything the quality of teaching is better at the ex-poly than it was at the red brick.
If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.
I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.
I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up
(Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
I am sensing he is the new plato.
Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.
For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.
Please keep commenting, and ignore the Lefty morons.
And AFTER the election too, one hopes.
Mr. Ed is a valuable resource to this site and provides insights from a pro-Trump perspective that is sadly lacking on here from anywhere else.
He is vociferously and personally attacked by some posters because of this.
I have zero respect for them. Quite frankly, I'd rather they were banned than Mr. Ed bullied off the site because he refuses to me yet another little Sir Echo.
If you want an echo chamber go and form a Facebook group or customise your own Twitter feed.
This is a betting site and I value opposing and conflicting views - *especially* when they go against the grain of what everyone else is saying.
Hold on. When MrEd posts sensible points about the views of Trump supporters that's OK, but a lot of what he posts is blinkered and biassed rubbish dressed up as betting advice. Rubbish should be called out as rubbish, even on this site.
I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
University of Glasgow isn't crappie is it? Or the University of Liverpool?
Manchester Met and Coventry have had outbreaks.
But as I said I'd like to see some data.
Whatever the overall situation it is still an astonishing outbreak at Northumbria.
Well, it will be interesting to see what happens at the Oxford & Cambridge Colleges (back this week).
The Colleges basically house the undergraduate students. And they function as Old Peoples Homes for elderly dons.
Normally, a STD is shared by the whole College from undergraduates to the Master.
A covid outbreak is going to be devastating for the more decrepit fellows who live in College.
Cambridge as a city will be holding its collective breath, I imagine. Along with much of the rest of the East, it has a relatively low rate of Plague infections.
We enjoy taking the train up there ourselves. Went last weekend, lunch out and shopping. Very nice.
Won't be going back until we know whether or not it's turned into a charnel house though. Term starts on Monday...
Mr. Ed is a valuable resource to this site and provides insights from a pro-Trump perspective that is sadly lacking on here from anywhere else.
He is vociferously and personally attacked by some posters because of this.
I have zero respect for them. Quite frankly, I'd rather they were banned than Mr. Ed bullied off the site because he refuses to me yet another little Sir Echo.
If you want an echo chamber go and form a Facebook group or customise your own Twitter feed.
This is a betting site and I value opposing and conflicting views - *especially* when they go against the grain of what everyone else is saying.
I've no problem with a plurality of views but the evidence provided and the scrutiny also has to be consistent. I don't challenge @MrEd because he is pro-Trump (nothing wrong with that) but his evidence and his suppositions shouldn't go unchallenged because it goes against the "majority".
He may be on to something - he may not - but let him present the evidence and let that evidence be challenged. He doesn't get a free pass because he puts forward a contrary line.
Comments
As Sunak has made clear.
But CV19 hit, and while Trump has been far from the worse leader as far as handling it, he has also been far from the best.
In the 538 polling average, Biden is now above his three month moving average and is up to 50.7%. If other polls validate the IBD move, it will be interesting. But right now, the USC tracker is showing no movement, and the Ipsos poll out yesterday (which was third collected after the debate) also showed no move.
I've bet on Tories, Labour, Remain, Leave, Trump, Obama and others. I bet to make money.
Right now, I'm not seeing anything in the polls that suggests that Biden is not twice as likely to win this than Trump. Doesn't mean Trump won't win, of course, because 30-33% shots come in all the time, but the preponderance of evidence (so far) is that Biden's polling position remains extremely strong.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1312032552203550720
But I don't see anything that will do that.
A lot of people on here will say "BLM" and "Kamala Harris". However, rising crime is more of an issue for many Black voters and Kamala Harris is not that popular in the Black community.
Personal view is that Black turnout will be probably similar to 2016, maybe a touch lower.
Apparently this will help in a Wurst Käse scenario.
There are a few other snippets though which are starting to come through, particularly in things such as voting registrations in swing states which suggest it may be tighter.
I'm quite happy to leave my bets until closer to the election. I think there will be some very good betting opportunities particularly around the individual states and / or the EC votes, but it is too uncertain yet and I am useless when it comes to the whole cashing out on Betfair malarkey.
Go to any major American conurbation. It is really hard to find any evidence whatsoever that having a Democrat controlled administration does wonders for the Black community. Just because Trump doesn't do something doesn't mean that it is acceptable (or that Black people living in those cities should accept it)
The fact that the current idiot in charge was calling the spending plans of the Tory party "unambitious" and the Labour Corbynite spending plans as "ambitious" is an indictment of the whole organisation. They aren't supposed to be judging ambition.
Margaret Ferrier deserves to be punished -- she has been thoughtless.
The question is whether she deserves being forced to resign. If you think thoughtlessness & stupidity are resigning matters, then there will not be many of the 650 MPs left!
The analogy with careless driving or drunk driving is a good one. To my knowledge, the following MPs have been convicted of careless driving or drink driving or speeding: Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Simon Burns, Nicholas Soames, Jon Cruddas, John Prescott.
None of them got forced to resign.
Thank you @Casino_Royale
Oh she backs QAnon - what a surprise.
https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/qanon-conspiracy-theorist-deanna-lorraine-is-struggling-to-trust-the-plan/
That lie is a deal breaker.
It takes it from panicked heat of the moment action to deliberate subterfuge.
Other than that, it sounds like the prospectus for another of his scams.
Biden is offering $1.9 trillion over ten years for education, including universal pre-K, more funding for schools serving low-income students, two years of guaranteed-debtless college, and tuition-free public college for lower-income families, alongside a large expansion of publicly funded healthcare.
There must be a name for a pun that only works in a different language.
Which of that lot was drunk?
Margaret comes across as not too bright. She panicked and lied. Out of interest, have you never panicked and lied?
Anyhow, let's hear her defence before you blow her up.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18761727.derek-mackay-msp-still-claiming-edinburgh-flat/
Wiki tell me "On 18 November 2010, Eric Joyce was arrested for failing to provide a breath test following a motoring incident in Falkirk. He pleaded guilty in court the following day and was fined £400 and banned from driving for a year. Joyce resigned from his position as Shadow Northern Ireland Minister and apologised for his behaviour"
He resigned as a minster, but he did not resign as an MP. Nor was he asked to.
To give a second example, Bethan Jenkins AM. was convicted of drink driving, She remains in fact a Plaid Cymru AM (she was suspended by the party and then quickly let back in after receiving treatment for depression).
There are two specific examples of drink driving involved Labour and Nationalist politicians who did not face enforced resignation.
The other cases I mentioned were for careless driving or repeated speeding offences..
If, for example, a 'second wave' is less than 20% as big as the 'first wave' is it a wave or a ripple ?
https://twitter.com/mgoldenmsp/status/1312110029051314177?s=20
And that in return he is going to cancel all US bonds owned by China.
One or two jumping on the IBD/TIPP poll as evidence the race is closing and that perhaps Trump will eke out a victory after all.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/
I was struck by this:
"The weighted likely voter sample reflects 411 Democrats, 403 Republicans and 201 independent voters"
That strikes me as a high sampling of Republicans and a lower sampling of Independent voters - Biden has a 10-point lead among that small sample.
We need a lot more polling before we can draw any definitive conclusions as to the impact if any of the first of the Presidential debates.
In state polling, USA Today/Suffolk has Biden leading 50-46 in Arizona:
https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/02/joe-bidens-lead-over-donald-trump-holding-battleground-arizona/5880048002/
Given the consistency of the Biden lead, I'm moving AZ into the blue column from TCTC. The Senate race looks promising for the Democrats with Kelly holding a 9-point lead.
Emerson has Biden up 52-45 in New Hampshire while a rare poll from New York by Siena has Biden ahead 61-29 (in 2016 Clinton won 59-37) so a 5% swing to Biden in a solidly Blue state.
Another reason to close down the former polys.
But as I said I'd like to see some data.
Whatever the overall situation it is still an astonishing outbreak at Northumbria.
Seriously?
OK make that 11.
What planet are you on? Seriously, who are all the leaders who have been worse than Trump?
934 reported today:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
Even if there have been delays in reporting earlier cases that's still a huge number.
Trump won White voters by 21 points in 2016 - most polls have that gap substantially smaller and this is where Biden is doing well - among white voters who comprise around 70% of those who will vote.
The Colleges basically house the undergraduate students. And they function as Old Peoples Homes for elderly dons.
Normally, a STD is shared by the whole College from undergraduates to the Master.
A covid outbreak is going to be devastating for the more decrepit fellows who live in College.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1312115626274484224
Interesting, so on that IBID/TIPP poll it is little different from 2016 post debate, Biden doing just 1% better than Hillary.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312087621695406081?s=20
Other new swing state polls give a Biden lead
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312088380117848064?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312088878833184768?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312092870418083840?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312094257038098433?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312114672791814144?s=20
Though Hart has Trump ahead in Iowa, Texas and Ohio. All the state polls bar PPP in Michigan were conducted pre debate
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312115409781317632?s=20
(I'll get my coat.)
All the different ranking systems have some flaws, but the Guardian often system ends up boosting many old polys for single years, and whose position is not matched in any of the other that look at national or international comparisons.
You aren't going to convince me at Northumbria University is the 27th best in the country...and that it has shot up from 47 in a single year.
We can consult the Times rankings to see which universities are at the crap end.
He is vociferously and personally attacked by some posters because of this.
I have zero respect for them. Quite frankly, I'd rather they were banned than Mr. Ed bullied off the site because he refuses to me yet another little Sir Echo.
If you want an echo chamber go and form a Facebook group or customise your own Twitter feed.
This is a betting site and I value opposing and conflicting views - *especially* when they go against the grain of what everyone else is saying.
If you want to call it a second wave then it is a second wave.
The sound of Anglophobic gloating from Dublin has long since been silenced.
I would suggest people check their prejudices.
We enjoy taking the train up there ourselves. Went last weekend, lunch out and shopping. Very nice.
Won't be going back until we know whether or not it's turned into a charnel house though. Term starts on Monday...
He may be on to something - he may not - but let him present the evidence and let that evidence be challenged. He doesn't get a free pass because he puts forward a contrary line.
Just because someone is a good academic does not mean they are a good tutor or lecturer.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1312069995376111617