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In March 92% of CON members thought Johnson was handling the COVID19 crisis well – that’s now down t

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    He did look a bit sweaty, I noticed that.
    This is not good. Trump had it when he met Biden?

    2020 aint done yet kids. Not by a long chalk.
    Applying the 2020 heuristic, I am expecting that Trump gives it to Biden, Biden croaks, Trump recovers and beats Harris in the EC after losing the PV by 5 percentage points when the Supreme Court decides that postal votes need to stop being counted in Pennsylvania just before Harris pulls ahead, in a 5-4 decision where Barrett tips the balance in his favour.
    And then Melania has a baby.
    With a blond scarecrow hairstyle...
  • Scott_xP said:
    I thought we were told earlier that Barnier wouldn't be saying anything before von der Leyen speaks to Boris tomorrow?
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Surely he doesn't get to pick before January, the ticket is already Trump/Pence and then the VP pick would need to go through a senate confirmation hearing.

    Does Biden have it?
    Ford was confirmed as VP by 92 to 3 in the Senate and 387 to 35 in the House. That was with Watergate very much ongoing and a very realistic prospect they were confirming the next President. It was also with a heavily Democratic Senate (56/42) and House (241/192).

    It is true we live in more partisan times, but I do think if this were to occur then Pence's choice would go through smoothly and quickly.

    If the Trump/Pence ticket is elected but the man at the top of the ballot doesn't make it (still pretty unlikely in actuarial terms - he's fairly old and fat but reasonably robust and with access to the best care) then Pence would have a lot of leeway. It's not like Supreme Court confirmation where there is an argument about legal qualification, compliance with all laws, and fundamental conflicts making it impossible to decide key cases fairly many years after the President has gone. VP is a political position up to the next election and it would, in practice, be a very senior Republican of Pence's choosing - it doesn't matter whether Pelosi personally likes him or her.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    Which living former Presidents would go to Trump's state funeral? My guess is Jimmy Carter and George W Bush only, though the Clintons and Obamas would obviously go to Biden's state funeral along with Carter and Bush. Melania would put on her best Jackie Kennedy grieving widow act, then buy a huge mansion for Barron and herself in Palm Beach and seek a new billionaire to marry.

    Hopefully of course it does not come to that and Trump recovers and Biden avoids it
    All of them because it would be the appropriate thing to do and the Clintons and Obamas would want to ensure they were above such petty items.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer's focus on how much he can take from individuals rather than how much he can raise for the treasury is emblematic of how the left is so often economically wrong.

    The tax rate on higher earners now is lower than it was, but raises more because people are content enough (relatively) to pay it without trying too many clever schemes or moving abroad.

    The more you hike taxes the less that remains true. And in an interconnected world, the wealthy have all the choice they could want when it comes to residency.

    It's foolish trying to have a socialist willy-waving contest about tax hikes. What matters is how much you can raise generally, not how much individuals pay.

    Still, it remains reassuring that he's just a typically wrong lefty rather than a full-blown socialist cretin like Corbyn was.

    If what matters is only the aggregate tax take regardless of fairness, it would lead to some bizarre policy choices. I think one has to accept that both are important. As to the interplay between rates and revenue, this is an uncertain area. My sense is there is scope for going higher than where we are. Let's hope so, because if there isn't it takes away a tool from a box that is already short on tools.
    To find the maximum point on the Laffer curve the condition is that the elasticity of the tax base with respect to the tax rate is equal to one. Your sense is therefore that said elasticity <1. Others think >1. Since governments often try to tune the rate to get epsilon = 1, I would guess it is somewhere in that ballpark, meaning there is likely to be little scope for easy revenue raising just by putting up tax rates.
    But there is more than one Laffer curve because (some privileged) people can choose whether their income is liable to Income Tax or Corporation Tax, or even Capital Gains Tax, as it suits them.
    I would welcome the synchronisation of these different taxes, i.e. same thresholds, same rates, to stop the egregious gaming of the system.
    I agree with that, but it just reinforces the point that for the rich the elasticity of the tax base wrt the tax rate is much greater than one. Targeting the rich for revenue is a fool's errand.

    edit: MorrisDancer makes the point eloquently enough.
    A wealth tax is what we need.
    What you need perhaps! On your bike!
    (Sorry, a bit tongue in cheek. I don't think wealth taxes are a great idea. I do think that inheritance tax could be higher.)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer's focus on how much he can take from individuals rather than how much he can raise for the treasury is emblematic of how the left is so often economically wrong.

    The tax rate on higher earners now is lower than it was, but raises more because people are content enough (relatively) to pay it without trying too many clever schemes or moving abroad.

    The more you hike taxes the less that remains true. And in an interconnected world, the wealthy have all the choice they could want when it comes to residency.

    It's foolish trying to have a socialist willy-waving contest about tax hikes. What matters is how much you can raise generally, not how much individuals pay.

    Still, it remains reassuring that he's just a typically wrong lefty rather than a full-blown socialist cretin like Corbyn was.

    If what matters is only the aggregate tax take regardless of fairness, it would lead to some bizarre policy choices. I think one has to accept that both are important. As to the interplay between rates and revenue, this is an uncertain area. My sense is there is scope for going higher than where we are. Let's hope so, because if there isn't it takes away a tool from a box that is already short on tools.
    To find the maximum point on the Laffer curve the condition is that the elasticity of the tax base with respect to the tax rate is equal to one. Your sense is therefore that said elasticity <1. Others think >1. Since governments often try to tune the rate to get epsilon = 1, I would guess it is somewhere in that ballpark, meaning there is likely to be little scope for easy revenue raising just by putting up tax rates.
    But there is more than one Laffer curve because (some privileged) people can choose whether their income is liable to Income Tax or Corporation Tax, or even Capital Gains Tax, as it suits them.
    I would welcome the synchronisation of these different taxes, i.e. same thresholds, same rates, to stop the egregious gaming of the system.
    I agree with that, but it just reinforces the point that for the rich the elasticity of the tax base wrt the tax rate is much greater than one. Targeting the rich for revenue is a fool's errand.

    edit: MorrisDancer makes the point eloquently enough.
    A wealth tax is what we need.
    Unless it falls on the immovable assets (i.e. housing) form of wealth it will be prone to large scale avoidance in the same way as iht. Many forms of capital are moveable, fungible and protean. Getting the tax authorities to pin it down so as to maximise revenue is a big ask.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    2171 new cases in NI, Scotland and Wales today. At that rate there would be nearly 11,000 cases in England. I wonder how much notice the London media will pay to Johnson apparently controlling the virus more effectively in England than the leaders of the devolved administrations?

    Or it could be a feature of different "track and trace" systems being more efficient than others at tracking and tracing more positive cases?
    But, but, but the English one is 'world-beating', was designed to be so and is working as planned.

    Caught up on Panorama last night!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the fact that they are reporting symptoms is probably a bad sign for Trump. Someone of his age and weight could see very serious symptoms very quickly.

    'Minor' symptons
    Boris started that way, he even came out to clap for the first Thursday.

    Boris was probably in marginally better health than Trump as well.
    True. But Trump comes across to me as physically very robust for 74. I have high hopes that he shrugs this off and gets back pronto to losing the election.
    I`d back Trump against Johnson in a fist fight. Despite his small hands. 4/6 Trump 6/4 Johnson.
    I think I would too. Johnson has the muscly torso but he strikes me as a bit of a show pony.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    Which living former Presidents would go to Trump's state funeral? My guess is Jimmy Carter and George W Bush only, though the Clintons and Obamas would obviously go to Biden's state funeral along with Carter and Bush. Melania would put on her best Jackie Kennedy grieving widow act, then buy a huge mansion for Barron and herself in Palm Beach and seek a new billionaire to marry.

    Hopefully of course it does not come to that and Trump recovers and Biden avoids it
    All of the former POTUS would go.

    Evens on whether Clinton or Obama get to dance on the grave first.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    I'm not one to minimise the risks of Covid at all, but to be fair the same phrases have been used (or could have been used) about the many people who have in fact had mild cases of the illness.

    It is true that they can't be taken as meaning Trump won't deteriorate. But equally, they are shouldn't be taken as meaning he will.
    People want him dead, don't be a fun sponge
    I am happy to say that I am wholeheartedly in favour of *anything at all* which prevents Trump from winning a second term.

    Anyway, I suspect medical euphemism is a country-specific thing and we can't make equivalences between what they say about Trump and what they said about Boris.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427

    2171 new cases in NI, Scotland and Wales today. At that rate there would be nearly 11,000 cases in England. I wonder how much notice the London media will pay to Johnson apparently controlling the virus more effectively in England than the leaders of the devolved administrations?

    Or it could be a feature of different "track and trace" systems being more efficient than others at tracking and tracing more positive cases?
    If a track and trace system is more effective then you'd expect over time that to lead to fewer cases, because it would reduce transmission of the virus.

    That doesn't seem to be happening here, unless the better system is in England.
  • MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    No way, can't get them on the ticket now anyway. Better to get them through either a lame duck session for the GOP or go for senate confirmation for the Dems. Announcing now before the election will just put voters off.
    Surely if necessary they could be announced now and ECVs could be transferred to the proposed candidate if they win?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    Foxy said:

    Paula_S said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the fact that they are reporting symptoms is probably a bad sign for Trump. Someone of his age and weight could see very serious symptoms very quickly.

    'Minor' symptons
    Boris started that way, he even came out to clap for the first Thursday.

    Boris was probably in marginally better health than Trump as well.
    Boris is a lot younger, but he was quite a lot fatter and he drinks.
    Boris was hospitalised on day 10 after the test, then in ICU on days 11-14.
    Age is a much stronger risk factor than anything else, and Trump is two decades older than Johnson. I don't think anyone has shown alcohol as a risk factor.

    Mortality has dropped more at the older age ranges from March.

    ' I don't think anyone has shown alcohol as a risk factor.'

    For this relief, much thanks!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Pointer, I must disagree.

    If it's done on assets then that means home-owning pensioners finding sums every year that may exceed their pension income.

    It also penalises savers generally when we already have a very low savings rate.

    Anyway, I must be off, but I've really rather liked the more traditional political arguments today.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    Which living former Presidents would go to Trump's state funeral? My guess is Jimmy Carter and George W Bush only, though the Clintons and Obamas would obviously go to Biden's state funeral along with Carter and Bush. Melania would put on her best Jackie Kennedy grieving widow act, then buy a huge mansion for Barron and herself in Palm Beach and seek a new billionaire to marry.

    Hopefully of course it does not come to that and Trump recovers and Biden avoids it
    A very morbid subject and let's hope not. But I am absolutely sure Carter (if well enough - he's 96 now), Bush, Clinton and Obama would all go to the funeral of either candidate.

    In the case of Biden, respect for the man. In the case of Trump, respect for the office.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    eristdoof said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:
    Which will mean the government will claim victory over its new restrictions.

    What won't happen is Vallance admitting his scaremongering was exactly that.
    - Infection rates surge -

    - New restrictions brought in and Government scientists tell the public that it's surging and warn them how bad it could get if it continued at its fastest observed rate - while emphasising they don't expect it to be that bad -
    -
    - Infections continue to ramp up for a while, slowing, and start to fall in exactly the time frame you'd expect if the warnings and restrictions were responsible -

    - Conclusion: It just happened on its own and there's no way the warnings and restrictions could have had anything to do with it -

    Sure.
    How could it possibly be proven that the restrictions were a mistake? Is this a Karl Popper falsification thing? It seems that it was a free option for the govt, no matter what happened they were right
    Well, if measures were brought in to reduce socialisations and the opportunity to spread the virus, the simplest hypothesis is therefore that the rate of spread of the virus would decrease, comparative to not bringing them in.

    To then jump to "These couldn't have had any effect and the reduction was exactly what would have happened without them" would seem to be the less likely hypothesis and would require greater evidence than "I've decided it didn't happen like that."

    If the level of spread suddenly dropped like a rock instantly after the speech and far sooner than the effects of any warning or restrictions would allow, we could switch to the simplest hypothesis being that they were unnecessary.

    Which it didn't, so we couldn't, so they weren't.
    The idea that natural phenomena, whether volcanoes, eclipses, floods, drought or viruses, or even global climate for that matter, are relatable to and controllable by human behaviour is as old as the dark ages and belongs there, surely.

    We can amelerioate the effects of almightly nature. But we cannot, and never will be able to, control it.

    We get oil from Scottish seas because there were forests there once. Our valleys were glaciers.

    That's climate change, right there.
    Which is why diseases such as typhoid, measles, polio, smallpox, and so on remain such a problem and have never been brought under control.

    Seriously, that entire worldview is laughable - that strange and inexplicable phenomena govern our world like the effects of capricious gods.

    Is this some strange trolling or joke?

    Someone called Semmelweiss made some rather important discoveries in the 1800s. Something called the Germ Theory of Disease came along. And one of the bigger steps in changing behaviours in order to control disease outbreaks was carried out by someone called Florence Nightingale (you may have heard of her) who produced excellent data visualisations to convince some decision-makers of the way to deal with disease outbreaks in hospitals.
    That a good point but there's a distinction. Those diseases were largely brought under control not by human behaviour but by human treatments. By real science. People were not ordered to dramatically alter their day to day behaviour, surrender their liberty or give up their businesses.

    And other viruses. such as influenza, still kill. Right now, more than COVID.
    Polio outbreaks regularly saw American towns/regions put under lockdown and quarantined.
    That behaviour did not stop polio. The vaccines against it did. Those lockdowns might still be there if real science had not intervened.
    Your argument makes no sense at all.

    Yes effective vaccines are the what we are aiming for.
    We do not yet have vaccines. We need to use science reduce the infection rates now. That includes using lockdown policies if and when things get out of hand. There is science behind quarrantining as well as just vaccines.
    Yes. Quarantines, sterilisation of tools and items, handwashing, keeping ones distance, tracing infected individuals (eg Typhoid Mary), cleaning hospitals, and many other methods can and have been used for various diseases and outbreaks over the centuries in the absence of vaccinations.
    Yes and how did those work out?

    In the 14 th century people had never been more spread out or less travelled. People had not idea what caused the black death but they knew that human contact was bad. Plenty of distancing then eh?

    Result? wipe out of up to sixty per cent of the population of Europe.

    What was the rate of mortality as people did summersaults to avoid each other down the centuries. Absolutely terrible until real, science based treatments came in such as vaccines and anti-biotics.

    Professor Gupta's whole point is that enforced or even voluntary changes in human behaviour at best only delay the inevitable at an enormous residual cost (beyond a possible six week initial lockdown phase). The virus finds a way.

    Its almost as if there a mass of evidence that changes in human behaviour a are really crap way of controlling disease. Something that is becoming more obvious by the day.
    You are displaying considerable ignorance today.
    Effective public health interventions have been around for centuries:
    https://www.sapiens.org/archaeology/venice-quarantine-history/
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    edited October 2020
    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the fact that they are reporting symptoms is probably a bad sign for Trump. Someone of his age and weight could see very serious symptoms very quickly.

    'Minor' symptons
    Boris started that way, he even came out to clap for the first Thursday.

    Boris was probably in marginally better health than Trump as well.
    True. But Trump comes across to me as physically very robust for 74. I have high hopes that he shrugs this off and gets back pronto to losing the election.
    I`d back Trump against Johnson in a fist fight. Despite his small hands. 4/6 Trump 6/4 Johnson.
    I think I would too. Johnson has the muscly torso but he strikes me as a bit of a show pony.
    Philip would back Johnson wouldn`t he? Given his previous comparisons with a certain beefy actor?
  • 6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer's focus on how much he can take from individuals rather than how much he can raise for the treasury is emblematic of how the left is so often economically wrong.

    The tax rate on higher earners now is lower than it was, but raises more because people are content enough (relatively) to pay it without trying too many clever schemes or moving abroad.

    The more you hike taxes the less that remains true. And in an interconnected world, the wealthy have all the choice they could want when it comes to residency.

    It's foolish trying to have a socialist willy-waving contest about tax hikes. What matters is how much you can raise generally, not how much individuals pay.

    Still, it remains reassuring that he's just a typically wrong lefty rather than a full-blown socialist cretin like Corbyn was.

    If what matters is only the aggregate tax take regardless of fairness, it would lead to some bizarre policy choices. I think one has to accept that both are important. As to the interplay between rates and revenue, this is an uncertain area. My sense is there is scope for going higher than where we are. Let's hope so, because if there isn't it takes away a tool from a box that is already short on tools.
    To find the maximum point on the Laffer curve the condition is that the elasticity of the tax base with respect to the tax rate is equal to one. Your sense is therefore that said elasticity <1. Others think >1. Since governments often try to tune the rate to get epsilon = 1, I would guess it is somewhere in that ballpark, meaning there is likely to be little scope for easy revenue raising just by putting up tax rates.
    But there is more than one Laffer curve because (some privileged) people can choose whether their income is liable to Income Tax or Corporation Tax, or even Capital Gains Tax, as it suits them.
    I would welcome the synchronisation of these different taxes, i.e. same thresholds, same rates, to stop the egregious gaming of the system.
    I agree with that, but it just reinforces the point that for the rich the elasticity of the tax base wrt the tax rate is much greater than one. Targeting the rich for revenue is a fool's errand.

    edit: MorrisDancer makes the point eloquently enough.
    A wealth tax is what we need.
    Unless it falls on the immovable assets (i.e. housing) form of wealth it will be prone to large scale avoidance in the same way as iht. Many forms of capital are moveable, fungible and protean. Getting the tax authorities to pin it down so as to maximise revenue is a big ask.

    Agree with all of that. It's not easy.

    But still, the latest estimate of UK net worth is what £10,000,000,000,000 (10 trillion) plus?

    1% of that a year transforms public finances.

    UK citizenship and residency have to be made dependent on coughing up your share.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%; it's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taking wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    I`m not sure whether Starmer is proposing a new 50% tax rate, or whether he would increase the current 45% to 50%.

    Either way, I`m not opposed to this in principle. Won`t be much use in repairing the nation`s finances though, as long as we can all agree on that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Mr. Pointer, I must disagree.

    If it's done on assets then that means home-owning pensioners finding sums every year that may exceed their pension income.

    It also penalises savers generally when we already have a very low savings rate.

    Anyway, I must be off, but I've really rather liked the more traditional political arguments today.

    I appreciate we differ. I appreciate it won't be easy. But one way or another we're all going to pay for this.

    Have a good day!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    Germany has the same top rate of income tax as we do and Sweden has no IHT.

    TSE, LadyG, Charles, Alistair Meeks to name but 4 are all or were comfortably in the top 5% of earners certainly and spend plenty of time posting on here
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    Which living former Presidents would go to Trump's state funeral? My guess is Jimmy Carter and George W Bush only, though the Clintons and Obamas would obviously go to Biden's state funeral along with Carter and Bush. Melania would put on her best Jackie Kennedy grieving widow act, then buy a huge mansion for Barron and herself in Palm Beach and seek a new billionaire to marry.

    Hopefully of course it does not come to that and Trump recovers and Biden avoids it
    A very morbid subject and let's hope not. But I am absolutely sure Carter (if well enough - he's 96 now), Bush, Clinton and Obama would all go to the funeral of either candidate.

    In the case of Biden, respect for the man. In the case of Trump, respect for the office.
    Maybe though I always think it is a bit false to attend the funeral of a person you despised when they were alive and the family of the deceased know it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    Laffer is total unprovable, unparameterisable* fiction, of course.

    (*If that's even a word)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited October 2020
    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    Or "the cave-in is well above my pay grade".
  • = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    What would you be trying to achieve through this tax raise?

    If it's more tax income then it won't work. If it's greater equality then it won't work.

    Raising the top rate tax rate therefore has no sensible reason behind it.

    By some other means, increasing the tax load on the richest may or may not be a wise thing to do. My hunch is that we're in about the right place. As I posted a few minutes ago I think inheritance tax is quite low, and I also think it's a tax that isn't so bad to raise. (Admittedly I hate the effect that it has on big houses etc. We're already well down that path anyway - nobody lives in the substantial Victorian houses of central London)
  • I have always found it strange that for somebody with a yuuuhe reputation for being a germophobe, Trump has spent 6 months putting himself in risky situations time and time again e.g. the press conferences with 20-30 people all huddled up, the rallies, the visits to factories and unwillingness to wear a mask.
  • I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    Laffer is total unprovable, unparameterisable* fiction, of course.

    (*If that's even a word)
    Laffer is only "unprovable" to a socialist in the same way as evolution is "unprovable" to a creationist.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Ditto Big_G!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    Or "the cave-in is well above my pay grade".

    Lol, yes, that's more like it!
  • 6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    But the devolved administrations are doing such a better job than England . . .
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    HYUFD said:

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    Germany has the same top rate of income tax as we do and Sweden has no IHT.

    TSE, LadyG, Charles, Alistair Meeks to name but 4 are all or were comfortably in the top 5% of earners certainly and spend plenty of time posting on here
    I'm minted but I'm happy to pay more tax. I also waste too much time on here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.

    But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    Arise Sir Patrick of Vallance and Sir Christopher of Whitty... and well played Boris for putting them in charge
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the fact that they are reporting symptoms is probably a bad sign for Trump. Someone of his age and weight could see very serious symptoms very quickly.

    'Minor' symptons
    Boris started that way, he even came out to clap for the first Thursday.

    Boris was probably in marginally better health than Trump as well.
    True. But Trump comes across to me as physically very robust for 74. I have high hopes that he shrugs this off and gets back pronto to losing the election.
    I`d back Trump against Johnson in a fist fight. Despite his small hands. 4/6 Trump 6/4 Johnson.
    I think I would too. Johnson has the muscly torso but he strikes me as a bit of a show pony.
    Trump would have no hesitation about going dirty. Johnson only would if he thought he could do it without anyone seeing him.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400
    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    Which living former Presidents would go to Trump's state funeral? My guess is Jimmy Carter and George W Bush only, though the Clintons and Obamas would obviously go to Biden's state funeral along with Carter and Bush. Melania would put on her best Jackie Kennedy grieving widow act, then buy a huge mansion for Barron and herself in Palm Beach and seek a new billionaire to marry.

    Hopefully of course it does not come to that and Trump recovers and Biden avoids it
    A very morbid subject and let's hope not. But I am absolutely sure Carter (if well enough - he's 96 now), Bush, Clinton and Obama would all go to the funeral of either candidate.

    In the case of Biden, respect for the man. In the case of Trump, respect for the office.
    Maybe though I always think it is a bit false to attend the funeral of a person you despised when they were alive and the family of the deceased know it
    If the deceased person held, and especially if they were still holding, public office, then they have to be accorded some respect.
    I wouldn't necessarily stay for the drinks afterwards, though.
  • eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    What is it with 3rd rate polys having big outbreaks?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    edited October 2020
    Omnium said:

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    What would you be trying to achieve through this tax raise?

    If it's more tax income then it won't work. If it's greater equality then it won't work.

    Raising the top rate tax rate therefore has no sensible reason behind it.

    By some other means, increasing the tax load on the richest may or may not be a wise thing to do. My hunch is that we're in about the right place. As I posted a few minutes ago I think inheritance tax is quite low, and I also think it's a tax that isn't so bad to raise. (Admittedly I hate the effect that it has on big houses etc. We're already well down that path anyway - nobody lives in the substantial Victorian houses of central London)
    Well, I tend to think that raising income tax will, er, raise the amount of money raised through income tax. I've always thought Laffer was just a spurious justification for not taxing the rich too much. Certainly when I was working on a decent salary I would have happily paid two or three hundred more a month to fund better public services. I would still have had plenty of money for a good lifestyle. My income probably just crept in to the top 5%, so nothing special.

    But I made it clear that I don't regard income tax as the solution to all our problems, and I agree with you on the potential for IHT rises.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    Isn't that @Gallowgate's current hang out?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    What is it with 3rd rate polys having big outbreaks?
    In my opinion you are being very generous with your rating there - Northern League second division would be a more accurate rating.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the fact that they are reporting symptoms is probably a bad sign for Trump. Someone of his age and weight could see very serious symptoms very quickly.

    'Minor' symptons
    Boris started that way, he even came out to clap for the first Thursday.

    Boris was probably in marginally better health than Trump as well.
    True. But Trump comes across to me as physically very robust for 74. I have high hopes that he shrugs this off and gets back pronto to losing the election.
    I`d back Trump against Johnson in a fist fight. Despite his small hands. 4/6 Trump 6/4 Johnson.
    I think I would too. Johnson has the muscly torso but he strikes me as a bit of a show pony.
    Trump would have no hesitation about going dirty. Johnson only would if he thought he could do it without anyone seeing him.
    There's also the determination factor. Trump is absurdly self confident and would find a way to insist he had won the contest even if Boris punched him so hard his jaw separated from his skull. I'm not sure Boris could take the hits.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    Isn't that @Gallowgate's current hang out?
    Pass - I was hoping he was at King's College Durham but given what happened in clearing regarding accommodation I suspect it wouldn't make much difference (some one we know at Newcastle Uni is sharing with 5 Northumbria students).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    But the devolved administrations are doing such a better job than England . . .
    Time will tell. At the moment the hospitalisation figures suggest that a disproportionately large percentage of total Covid patients are in Wales and a correspondingly low percentage are to be found in Scottish hospitals. England and Northern Ireland are both close to population-proportionate shares of the total number.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.

    But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
    The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.

    After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
  • 6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    With usual caveats of reporting day data . . .

    Versus 6,874 same day last week. Not exactly doubling every week.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    It really does seem as though the R in England has begun to stabilise. The Imperial and ONS data looks correct.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,400

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    With usual caveats of reporting day data . . .

    Versus 6,874 same day last week. Not exactly doubling every week.
    Gives us an R of about 1 which is probably as good as we are going to get...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411
    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    From what I saw of at least 3 places a week yesterday during Freshers week, I would not be surprised in the slightest.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    Isn't that @Gallowgate's current hang out?
    Pass - I was hoping he was at King's College Durham but given what happened in clearing regarding accommodation I suspect it wouldn't make much difference (some one we know at Newcastle Uni is sharing with 5 Northumbria students).
    Isn't he at home, anyway?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    kle4 said:

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.

    But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
    The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.

    After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
    That all may be true, in fact I can believe it easily particularly since he has now already in effect admitted his last deal was no good (or, most charitably, so easily misused), but is irrelevant to the point that if he signs, for whatever reason and even if it is a bad deal and even if he realises later that is so, then it shows he did want a deal as claimed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    Laffer is total unprovable, unparameterisable* fiction, of course.

    (*If that's even a word)
    Laffer Syndrome would be an accurate description.
    If only of the phenomenon of people thinking the curve a real thing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    With usual caveats of reporting day data . . .

    Versus 6,874 same day last week. Not exactly doubling every week.
    The hospital numbers are climbing steadily upwards so there's obviously no room for complacency, but it does indeed look like we're tracking the French and Spanish outbreaks at the moment, rather than going to Hell in a handcart. Not for the time being, anyway...
  • 6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    Am I right in thinking during the first wave, NI escaped more lightly than other parts of the UK?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    With usual caveats of reporting day data . . .

    Versus 6,874 same day last week. Not exactly doubling every week.
    It doubled in a day - in Northern Ireland. The figure for England is surely down on a week ago.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I guess the big questions are:

    (1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio?
    (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?

    Are you talking about the 2020 election?
    If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
    No way, can't get them on the ticket now anyway. Better to get them through either a lame duck session for the GOP or go for senate confirmation for the Dems. Announcing now before the election will just put voters off.
    Don't forget it's the Electoral College members who are being elected in November in each state. Those nominations are in and done, so if one or other or both of either party's candidates dies or withdraws before election day, or rather December 15th when the Electoral College votes, it's that party's national committee who gets to decide who to replace them with on the ticket. After December 15th then the 20th Amendment specifies that if the President-elect has died, the Vice-President-elect becomes President-elect. If because of this, or because the VP-elect has died, the Vice-Presidency is vacant until the new President makes an appointment after they take up office. Per the 25th Amendment, appointment to the vacant Vice-Presidency is confirmed by a majority vote of both houses, not just the Senate.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    No one who believes in the Laffer curve also believes we are on the left hand side.

    Incidentally Laffer is a crank these days.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,411

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    But that England 9 is a bit of an irrelevance. What is the figure for North of Sheffield say?
    I suspect higher than Scotland or Wales.
    This second wave is a regional outbreak.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.

    But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
    The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.

    After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
    That all may be true, in fact I can believe it easily particularly since he has now already in effect admitted his last deal was no good (or, most charitably, so easily misused), but is irrelevant to the point that if he signs, for whatever reason and even if it is a bad deal and even if he realises later that is so, then it shows he did want a deal as claimed.
    Indeed; I agree with your last point, but is a bad deal better than no deal. I can't remember where we are in that cycle!
    If NE Scots fisherman are thrown under a bus, metaphorically speaking, that could leave Boris in trouble. Although I think on the Daily Express would care very much.
  • MaxPB said:

    It really does seem as though the R in England has begun to stabilise. The Imperial and ONS data looks correct.

    The KCL/Zoe data have been pretty stable at around 19k new cases a day for most of the week, though a non-trivial jump to near 21k today.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dixiedean said:

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    But that England 9 is a bit of an irrelevance. What is the figure for North of Sheffield say?
    I suspect higher than Scotland or Wales.
    This second wave is a regional outbreak.
    Also, as I understand it, there are fewer people per 100,000 in hospital in Scotland compared to England.
  • The Betfair market has reopened.
    Pence is at 60.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    I'm shocked to see that so many well-heeled denizens of PB are against a hike in the tax rate for the top 5%. It's almost as if it might affect them. But as they'd just end up moving abroad to avoid Starmer's "punitive" tax regime we'd all suffer, as of course the tax take would go down according to somebody called Laffer. We can cite in evidence all the rich running away from the punitive income tax regimes in Sweden and Germany. Or can we?

    I have no problem in those with the highest incomes paying more in tax, and nor do I think it will solve all our problems. But combined with new approaches to taxing wealth (oh no, more emigration) it will contribute to raising more money for better public services - and for paying off some of the cost of Covid.

    But maybe I'm completely wrong. The top 5% of earners would be far too busy working all day to spend any time on PB.

    Laffer is total unprovable, unparameterisable* fiction, of course.

    (*If that's even a word)
    Laffer Syndrome would be an accurate description.
    If only of the phenomenon of people thinking the curve a real thing.
    A syndrome that seems only to afflict higher earners.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Mr. kinabalu, that's clearly not what I wrote.

    At no point did I suggest anything that could be construed as an argument for the rich paying lower tax rates than other people.

    You're more concerned with punitive taxation to hit individuals. I'm more concerned with maximising the tax take, which may occur with tax rates being higher or lower. If you squeeze the rich so they dodge the tax or just leave the country then there's a shortfall in revenues which principally affects the poorest, either through inferior funding for service provision or through rising taxes (or both).

    It's exactly what you wrote. Go back and check. As to the rest, there may or may not be scope to raise revenue via a wealth tax and higher income tax rates on middle and (especially) high earners. I say I hope there is. You say you think there isn't. But neither of us has a clue. Let's not pretend we do, citing "Laffer Curve" nonsense. Fact is, we pick the answer which suits our political leanings. But given you are elevating your own virtuous motives and at the same time telling me what my misguided drivers are, let me return the compliment by doing the reverse. I'm concerned with raising tax revenue in a way that balances efficiency and fiscal justice. You are parroting softhead Daily Telegraph platitudes.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    With usual caveats of reporting day data . . .

    Versus 6,874 same day last week. Not exactly doubling every week.
    It doubled in a day - in Northern Ireland. The figure for England is surely down on a week ago.
    Relative to last Friday, cases confirmed by test are down in England and up elsewhere. However, hospitalisations are still tracking upwards in all four nations.

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    Am I right in thinking during the first wave, NI escaped more lightly than other parts of the UK?
    That is also my understanding.
  • Alistair said:

    No one who believes in the Laffer curve also believes we are on the left hand side.

    Incidentally Laffer is a crank these days.

    Not true, we can be on the left sometimes and the right other times.

    It only generally gets brought up when the person bringing it up thinks we're on the right . . . that doesn't mean we're always on the right, since it doesn't always get brought up.
  • eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    What is it with 3rd rate polys having big outbreaks?
    The missus's colleague's son has gone down with it. He's a fresher at Manchester Met.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    Am I right in thinking during the first wave, NI escaped more lightly than other parts of the UK?
    Yes. I think there was something from the Northern Ireland Statistics Authority about that, but I haven't looked at it in detail.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    October 1st

    17 Scotland patients in ICU
    290 England patients in ICU
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK Cases by specimen date

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Paula_S said:

    The Betfair market has reopened.
    Pence is at 60.

    They have opened up fresh. There is no money in them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    From what I saw of at least 3 places a week yesterday during Freshers week, I would not be surprised in the slightest.
    As I said the other day this Xmas lockdown for students telling them not to go home will be irrelevant. All will have had it by then except the odd library recluse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK case by specimen date, scaled to per 100K population

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    All the nations were doubling every ten days or so through September. England seems to have plateaued this week while the others carried on. Not quite sure why this is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    MaxPB said:

    It really does seem as though the R in England has begun to stabilise. The Imperial and ONS data looks correct.

    Another exceptional performance from the Ferguson model.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.

    But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
    The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.

    After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
    That all may be true, in fact I can believe it easily particularly since he has now already in effect admitted his last deal was no good (or, most charitably, so easily misused), but is irrelevant to the point that if he signs, for whatever reason and even if it is a bad deal and even if he realises later that is so, then it shows he did want a deal as claimed.
    Indeed; I agree with your last point, but is a bad deal better than no deal. I can't remember where we are in that cycle!
    If NE Scots fisherman are thrown under a bus, metaphorically speaking, that could leave Boris in trouble. Although I think on the Daily Express would care very much.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    = "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
    I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
    Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.

    But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
    The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.

    After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
    That all may be true, in fact I can believe it easily particularly since he has now already in effect admitted his last deal was no good (or, most charitably, so easily misused), but is irrelevant to the point that if he signs, for whatever reason and even if it is a bad deal and even if he realises later that is so, then it shows he did want a deal as claimed.
    Indeed; I agree with your last point, but is a bad deal better than no deal. I can't remember where we are in that cycle!
    If NE Scots fisherman are thrown under a bus, metaphorically speaking, that could leave Boris in trouble. Although I think on the Daily Express would care very much.
    I think we're at the position where it's recognised that No Deal is a problem (because the systems aren't remotely ready and there are 3 months to go) but it's not recognised that the Desired Deal is also a problem (because the systems aren't remotely ready and there are 3 months to go).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK Case summary

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say the fact that they are reporting symptoms is probably a bad sign for Trump. Someone of his age and weight could see very serious symptoms very quickly.

    'Minor' symptons
    Boris started that way, he even came out to clap for the first Thursday.

    Boris was probably in marginally better health than Trump as well.
    True. But Trump comes across to me as physically very robust for 74. I have high hopes that he shrugs this off and gets back pronto to losing the election.
    I`d back Trump against Johnson in a fist fight. Despite his small hands. 4/6 Trump 6/4 Johnson.
    I think I would too. Johnson has the muscly torso but he strikes me as a bit of a show pony.
    Philip would back Johnson wouldn`t he? Given his previous comparisons with a certain beefy actor?
    :smile: - but the role has now gone. Tom Hardy, I gather.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Alistair said:

    October 1st

    17 Scotland patients in ICU
    290 England patients in ICU

    In line with the general hospital numbers, England has a roughly proportional share of the UK total of ventilation patients; Scotland less, Wales more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1312056242563579905

    Unlike most of his fellow senators, fairly young.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK Hospitals

    image
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    image
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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Biden 1.57.

    Why have BF suspended and then reopened I wonder?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I'm impressed they could get 770 students tested. Did they have to drive them hundreds of miles?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,427
    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.

    According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
    Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's:
    England 9
    Scotland 14
    Wales 15
    Northern Ireland 49

    Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
    But that England 9 is a bit of an irrelevance. What is the figure for North of Sheffield say?
    I suspect higher than Scotland or Wales.
    This second wave is a regional outbreak.
    Also, as I understand it, there are fewer people per 100,000 in hospital in Scotland compared to England.
    Oh, okay. So that would suggest that testing is identifying a greater proportion of cases in Scotland. Maybe the ONS survey was on the optimistic side.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Yup, all the Betfair markets are up but all unmatched money was cancelled.

    Sigh.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK Deaths

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    Biden 1.57.

    Why have BF suspended and then reopened I wonder?

    They were clearly making a judgement on whether it was unethical to keep the market open when Trump was ill. Initially they decided to suspend but now that it doesn't appear too serious they've opened it again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK positivity breakdown by nation

    image
  • Positivity rate going up.

    Still confused why Warrington was one of the 4 locations chosen for extending lcokdown, other than our proximity to Liverpool the data doesn't seem to explain it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Alistair said:

    Yup, all the Betfair markets are up but all unmatched money was cancelled.

    Sigh.

    Why does that matter?
This discussion has been closed.