= "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.
But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.
After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
That all may be true, in fact I can believe it easily particularly since he has now already in effect admitted his last deal was no good (or, most charitably, so easily misused), but is irrelevant to the point that if he signs, for whatever reason and even if it is a bad deal and even if he realises later that is so, then it shows he did want a deal as claimed.
Indeed; I agree with your last point, but is a bad deal better than no deal. I can't remember where we are in that cycle! If NE Scots fisherman are thrown under a bus, metaphorically speaking, that could leave Boris in trouble. Although I think on the Daily Express would care very much.
= "We're going to cave-in but we'll never admit it."
I really do not care as long as a deal is agreed
Probably why you and I would make poor negotiators. If they do cave in that may well be worth criticising if they are particularly shameless about it - everyone sells their side afterwards, I don't begrudge that - but it will be weird if, once again, we were told they actually wanted no deal and they prove otherwise by doing one. Even if that is a substandard deal which they caved in to get, if they get one it would once again show that the idea particular people involved wanted no deal would be wrong.
But I won't count chickens on this one until they hatch.
The point was made earlier. Ursula van der Leyen and supporting staff will explain something to Boris, and be nice to him. Frost will desperately try to stop but Boris will be flattered and sign.
After Christmas Boris will realise he's been thoroughly shafted, but there's his signature at the bottom of the document!
That all may be true, in fact I can believe it easily particularly since he has now already in effect admitted his last deal was no good (or, most charitably, so easily misused), but is irrelevant to the point that if he signs, for whatever reason and even if it is a bad deal and even if he realises later that is so, then it shows he did want a deal as claimed.
Indeed; I agree with your last point, but is a bad deal better than no deal. I can't remember where we are in that cycle! If NE Scots fisherman are thrown under a bus, metaphorically speaking, that could leave Boris in trouble. Although I think on the Daily Express would care very much.
I think we're at the position where it's recognised that No Deal is a problem (because the systems aren't remotely ready and there are 3 months to go) but it's not recognised that the Desired Deal is also a problem (because the systems aren't remotely ready and there are 3 months to go).
Yes, it's going to be mayhem either way (unless there's another extension). The only question is the magnitude and duration of said mayhem.
My strong impression is that the EU is sticking to its negotiating plan, while the UK doesn't actually have a plan. If there is going to be a deal. The UK will need to accept what the EU wants on State Aid and governance, and remove the IMB provisions, while the fish will be a haggle (possibly slightly advantageous to them, if the other stuff goes the EU way).
6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.
According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's: England 9 Scotland 14 Wales 15 Northern Ireland 49
Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
But that England 9 is a bit of an irrelevance. What is the figure for North of Sheffield say? I suspect higher than Scotland or Wales. This second wave is a regional outbreak.
Also, as I understand it, there are fewer people per 100,000 in hospital in Scotland compared to England.
Oh, okay. So that would suggest that testing is identifying a greater proportion of cases in Scotland. Maybe the ONS survey was on the optimistic side.
Except isn't it the case that the ONS and Imperial surveys are based on random sampling, so should not reflect the relative efficiency or otherwise of testing laboratories or track and trace systems in different parts of the country?
(1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio? (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?
Are you talking about the 2020 election?
If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
No way, can't get them on the ticket now anyway. Better to get them through either a lame duck session for the GOP or go for senate confirmation for the Dems. Announcing now before the election will just put voters off.
I'm not sure I agree. The electoral college, IIRC, has separate roll calls or the Presidency and the Vice-Presidency. So, there would be no need for the Senate to get involved in either case.
There are also laws against faithless electors in some States, so it makes sense for there to be an official Vice Presidential candidate in place before the election - even if ballots have been printed.
"The Betfair Exchange suspended betting on the US election for a brief period on Friday (October 2) in order to protect customers with unmatched bets in the market. Those bets have now been cancelled and the market re-opened at 16:30."
6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.
According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's: England 9 Scotland 14 Wales 15 Northern Ireland 49
Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
But that England 9 is a bit of an irrelevance. What is the figure for North of Sheffield say? I suspect higher than Scotland or Wales. This second wave is a regional outbreak.
Also, as I understand it, there are fewer people per 100,000 in hospital in Scotland compared to England.
Oh, okay. So that would suggest that testing is identifying a greater proportion of cases in Scotland. Maybe the ONS survey was on the optimistic side.
Except isn't it the case that the ONS and Imperial surveys are based on random sampling, so should not reflect the relative efficiency or otherwise of testing laboratories or track and trace systems in different parts of the country?
(1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio? (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?
Are you talking about the 2020 election?
If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
No way, can't get them on the ticket now anyway. Better to get them through either a lame duck session for the GOP or go for senate confirmation for the Dems. Announcing now before the election will just put voters off.
I'm not sure I agree. The electoral college, IIRC, has separate roll calls or the Presidency and the Vice-Presidency. So, there would be no need for the Senate to get involved in either case.
There are also laws against faithless electors in some States, so it makes sense for there to be an official Vice Presidential candidate in place before the election - even if ballots have been printed.
They aren't going to ask random EC members to vote on it, at least the senate has democratic legitimacy, even a lame duck session.
The point I was making is that the ticket is already set, the ballots are printed EC voters may not be able to vote for anyone else.
Why would it? They clearly said at the beginning it shows how quickly things can get out of control, and that it was not a projection. Additional measures came in, and the scenario didn't come to pass.
Hodges is an idiot. What part of "if we do nothing and it continues to double" do these idiots opposing what was done not understand?
I can respect a philosophical idea of saying that it is better to let it run wild amongst the youth and not panic, but the bad science of people like Hodges is what really gets to me.
(1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio? (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?
Are you talking about the 2020 election?
If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
No way, can't get them on the ticket now anyway. Better to get them through either a lame duck session for the GOP or go for senate confirmation for the Dems. Announcing now before the election will just put voters off.
I'm not sure I agree. The electoral college, IIRC, has separate roll calls or the Presidency and the Vice-Presidency. So, there would be no need for the Senate to get involved in either case.
There are also laws against faithless electors in some States, so it makes sense for there to be an official Vice Presidential candidate in place before the election - even if ballots have been printed.
It's up to the parties to instruct their Electors who to vote for if either slot in the ticket falls vacant before the EC votes. There have been two cases where a VP candidate has died before the EC vote, one just before the popular vote (1912), one after (1872). In both cases the deceased was on the losing ticket so the party did not bother to nominate a replacement, and the Electors for that party were free to vote for whomever they wanted for VP.
Why would it? They clearly said at the beginning it shows how quickly things can get out of control, and that it was not a projection. Additional measures came in, and the scenario didn't come to pass.
They knew people wouldn't take in the details. They would just see the graph and be scared. It was outrageous imho.
(1) Who does President Pence pick as his VP? One of the Trump children, or does he go for someone like Marco Rubio? (2) And who will Kamala Harris select as her running mate? Someone from the Midwest, presumably, perhaps Sherrod Brown?
Are you talking about the 2020 election?
If both candidates were to croak in the next two weeks, then surely Pence and Harris would need to announce their VP picks.
No way, can't get them on the ticket now anyway. Better to get them through either a lame duck session for the GOP or go for senate confirmation for the Dems. Announcing now before the election will just put voters off.
I'm not sure I agree. The electoral college, IIRC, has separate roll calls or the Presidency and the Vice-Presidency. So, there would be no need for the Senate to get involved in either case.
There are also laws against faithless electors in some States, so it makes sense for there to be an official Vice Presidential candidate in place before the election - even if ballots have been printed.
They aren't going to ask random EC members to vote on it, at least the senate has democratic legitimacy, even a lame duck session.
The point I was making is that the ticket is already set, the ballots are printed EC voters may not be able to vote for anyone else.
Lets say hypothetically that Trump died, Pence said he was going to run in Trump's place and named say Guilliani as his running mate then in the event the Trump/Pence ballot won then it would be reasonable for pledged EC members to vote Pence/Guilliani instead.
Considering he shared the stage with Trump for 90 minutes on Tuesday, even if he tests negative today it doesn't mean he won't test positive next week.
Hmm, looking at my next President book, if Sherrod Brown or Bloomberg could somehow engineer themselves into winning the whole shebang then that would be great.
It really does seem as though the R in England has begun to stabilise. The Imperial and ONS data looks correct.
Which is actually great. We've not locked down (nationally) but we have R around 1.
That's certainly what the numbers would suggest - which implies that things are either levelling off everywhere, or cases are in decline again in many leafy parts but still rising in urban areas, especially up North.
Meanwhile, we have the odd phenomenon of disproportionately high hospitalisations in Wales, versus low figures in Scotland. I'm assuming that Wales is getting hit hard because the bulk of the population lives in that band between Swansea and Newport, which has a not wholly dissimilar socio-economic profile to the major conurbations of Northern England. Scotland could simply be handling the pandemic better, or it could be a little bit behind England and Wales in this particular phase of it, in the same fashion as England and Wales turned out to be behind France. We shall know soon enough.
Quite looking forward to the start of what could be the last series of HIGNFY tonight. Might, of course, be saved because it went some way to improving Johnson's career.
Although he doesn't seem to 'do' gratitude. Revenge, yes.
If it wants to be extended then finding a way to be funny again and less full of itself would be better. HIGNFY used to be hilarious, in recent years not so much.
I'm guessing you found it hilarious between 1997 and 2010, sporadically funny until 2015, and then not funny at all (except maybe when May was PM).
Hmm, looking at my next President book, if Sherrod Brown or Bloomberg could somehow engineer themselves into winning the whole shebang then that would be great.
Yup, all the Betfair markets are up but all unmatched money was cancelled.
Sigh.
Why does that matter?
I might be being unfair to him, but it suggests that Alistair might be disappointed at the lack of open positions left by mug punters who haven't reacted to the news ?
Why would it? They clearly said at the beginning it shows how quickly things can get out of control, and that it was not a projection. Additional measures came in, and the scenario didn't come to pass.
They knew people wouldn't take in the details. They would just see the graph and be scared. It was outrageous imho.
The aim was to puncture complacency, I think. A restatement of "Stay Alert. Control The Virus".
Yup, all the Betfair markets are up but all unmatched money was cancelled.
Sigh.
Why does that matter?
I might be being unfair to him, but it suggests that Alistair might be disappointed at the lack of open positions left by mug punters who haven't reacted to the news ?
"The Betfair Exchange suspended betting on the US election for a brief period on Friday (October 2) in order to protect customers with unmatched bets in the market. Those bets have now been cancelled and the market re-opened at 16:30."
Quite looking forward to the start of what could be the last series of HIGNFY tonight. Might, of course, be saved because it went some way to improving Johnson's career.
Although he doesn't seem to 'do' gratitude. Revenge, yes.
If it wants to be extended then finding a way to be funny again and less full of itself would be better. HIGNFY used to be hilarious, in recent years not so much.
I'm guessing you found it hilarious between 1997 and 2010, sporadically funny until 2015, and then not funny at all (except maybe when May was PM).
No HIGNFY has been objectively crap for the last decade at least.
Yup, all the Betfair markets are up but all unmatched money was cancelled.
Sigh.
Why does that matter?
I might be being unfair to him, but it suggests that Alistair might be disappointed at the lack of open positions left by mug punters who haven't reacted to the news ?
Oh, I see. Respect.
That plus I panicked a little when I saw all my green pre-supsension cashout positions had turned blood red.
Then I realised what the situation was and calmed down.
Quite looking forward to the start of what could be the last series of HIGNFY tonight. Might, of course, be saved because it went some way to improving Johnson's career.
Although he doesn't seem to 'do' gratitude. Revenge, yes.
If it wants to be extended then finding a way to be funny again and less full of itself would be better. HIGNFY used to be hilarious, in recent years not so much.
I'm guessing you found it hilarious between 1997 and 2010, sporadically funny until 2015, and then not funny at all (except maybe when May was PM).
It started going downhill before 2010. After Deayton left it lost a bit of the chemistry, the guest hosts for the first couple of seasons after that worked but it really started to get tired quite a while ago.
6,968 new positive cases...awaiting the scripters to publish the correct charts.
According to what I can see the split is: Wales 462, Scotland 775, NI 934(!), England 4,797
Yes, those are the figures I see. Per 100,000 that's: England 9 Scotland 14 Wales 15 Northern Ireland 49
Of course, it's Johnson that's bungling it. For what it's worth, I think a daily rate of 9 is problematic enough, but there's a reality/perception disconnect here.
But that England 9 is a bit of an irrelevance. What is the figure for North of Sheffield say? I suspect higher than Scotland or Wales. This second wave is a regional outbreak.
Also, as I understand it, there are fewer people per 100,000 in hospital in Scotland compared to England.
Oh, okay. So that would suggest that testing is identifying a greater proportion of cases in Scotland. Maybe the ONS survey was on the optimistic side.
Except isn't it the case that the ONS and Imperial surveys are based on random sampling, so should not reflect the relative efficiency or otherwise of testing laboratories or track and trace systems in different parts of the country?
They are - that is why they are so valuable. Polling for the virus, as it were, complete with controls and methodology to eliminate biases in the samples.
Quite looking forward to the start of what could be the last series of HIGNFY tonight. Might, of course, be saved because it went some way to improving Johnson's career.
Although he doesn't seem to 'do' gratitude. Revenge, yes.
If it wants to be extended then finding a way to be funny again and less full of itself would be better. HIGNFY used to be hilarious, in recent years not so much.
I'm guessing you found it hilarious between 1997 and 2010, sporadically funny until 2015, and then not funny at all (except maybe when May was PM).
No HIGNFY has been objectively crap for the last decade at least.
The show was best between 1990 and about 2005 IMO.
CNN: As the days go by, especially if the President does not develop serious complications from Covid-19, there will be increasing discussion of his recklessness amid a crisis that has killed more than 200,000 Americans. His conduct not only endangered himself and those around him. It is causing uproar around a presidential election -- the most important symbol of American democracy. The President has become the third of a trio of world leaders who were cavalier about the virus, apparently for political reasons, to get infected.
It sometimes happens for contracts to test negative on the first test and positive a few days later, depending on how long the virus has had to incubate.
It really does seem as though the R in England has begun to stabilise. The Imperial and ONS data looks correct.
Which is actually great. We've not locked down (nationally) but we have R around 1.
That's certainly what the numbers would suggest - which implies that things are either levelling off everywhere, or cases are in decline again in many leafy parts but still rising in urban areas, especially up North.
Meanwhile, we have the odd phenomenon of disproportionately high hospitalisations in Wales, versus low figures in Scotland. I'm assuming that Wales is getting hit hard because the bulk of the population lives in that band between Swansea and Newport, which has a not wholly dissimilar socio-economic profile to the major conurbations of Northern England. Scotland could simply be handling the pandemic better, or it could be a little bit behind England and Wales in this particular phase of it, in the same fashion as England and Wales turned out to be behind France. We shall know soon enough.
Lots of our more recent cases are halls outbreaks. We're still seeing increases in hospitalisation though which isn't great, honestly.
Quite looking forward to the start of what could be the last series of HIGNFY tonight. Might, of course, be saved because it went some way to improving Johnson's career.
Although he doesn't seem to 'do' gratitude. Revenge, yes.
If it wants to be extended then finding a way to be funny again and less full of itself would be better. HIGNFY used to be hilarious, in recent years not so much.
I'm guessing you found it hilarious between 1997 and 2010, sporadically funny until 2015, and then not funny at all (except maybe when May was PM).
No HIGNFY has been objectively crap for the last decade at least.
The show was best between 1990 and about 2005 IMO.
100% agreed.
Should have been axed about a year or two after Deayton left IMO. Now its just very stale.
Why would it? They clearly said at the beginning it shows how quickly things can get out of control, and that it was not a projection. Additional measures came in, and the scenario didn't come to pass.
They knew people wouldn't take in the details. They would just see the graph and be scared. It was outrageous imho.
The aim was to puncture complacency, I think. A restatement of "Stay Alert. Control The Virus".
This reminds me of studying the Y2K stuff in my engineering classes. Y2K could potentially have been a serious problem, especially in banking. But we spent lots of money fixing it and nothing much happened, so lots of people whined about "wHy DiD wE spENd So MucH moNEy oN ThiS". Fair play to the government if these restrictions have blunted the R number. And I don't say that about this shower of chucklefucks very often.
That's a disaster. Very bad news for everyone there.
Yes, it's bad news indeed.
It’s not total lockdown
Back in Madrid, the Madrid Hostelería association regrets the "imminent" closure of the premises at 11 pm due to the new measures approved, as there were "thousands of reservations" planned for today: "We do not understand how it has been possible to proceed with such an immediate closure, with just hours, and there are thousands of reservations for tonight, which can mean more than 8 million euros just today ", says the president of the association, Juan José Blardony
It’s mainly travel restrictions and limiting night time socializing, still to be challenged in the courts.
It sometimes happens for contracts to test negative on the first test and positive a few days later, depending on how long the virus has had to incubate.
I'm still nervous for Biden.
True, but can we just enjoy 24 hours of hope that 2020 isn't going to get even worse please before his next test?
That's a disaster. Very bad news for everyone there.
Yes, it's bad news indeed.
It’s not total lockdown
Back in Madrid, the Madrid Hostelería association regrets the "imminent" closure of the premises at 11 pm due to the new measures approved, as there were "thousands of reservations" planned for today: "We do not understand how it has been possible to proceed with such an immediate closure, with just hours, and there are thousands of reservations for tonight, which can mean more than 8 million euros just today ", says the president of the association, Juan José Blardony
It’s mainly travel restrictions and limiting night time socializing, still to be challenged in the courts.
You mean the Poly - a place so stupid that the name City University of Newcastle upon Tyne got as far as logos being designed before they picked a different name.
Hodges is an idiot. What part of "if we do nothing and it continues to double" do these idiots opposing what was done not understand?
I can respect a philosophical idea of saying that it is better to let it run wild amongst the youth and not panic, but the bad science of people like Hodges is what really gets to me.
I find that Hodges speaks more sense than people give him credit for, at times, but I simply cannot understand what point he thinks he is making there.
Why would it? They clearly said at the beginning it shows how quickly things can get out of control, and that it was not a projection. Additional measures came in, and the scenario didn't come to pass.
The great thing that people can fall back on in such cases, is claim their confusion about so simple a point shows that the message was confusing, and so shift the line of attack even when they are wrong.
It's one of the tools of the trade, along with finding even one example of a policy not working or causing difficulties, thus proving it must be useless in its entirety.
That's a disaster. Very bad news for everyone there.
Yes, it's bad news indeed.
It’s not total lockdown
Back in Madrid, the Madrid Hostelería association regrets the "imminent" closure of the premises at 11 pm due to the new measures approved, as there were "thousands of reservations" planned for today: "We do not understand how it has been possible to proceed with such an immediate closure, with just hours, and there are thousands of reservations for tonight, which can mean more than 8 million euros just today ", says the president of the association, Juan José Blardony
It’s mainly travel restrictions and limiting night time socializing, still to be challenged in the courts.
CNN: As the days go by, especially if the President does not develop serious complications from Covid-19, there will be increasing discussion of his recklessness amid a crisis that has killed more than 200,000 Americans. His conduct not only endangered himself and those around him. It is causing uproar around a presidential election -- the most important symbol of American democracy. The President has become the third of a trio of world leaders who were cavalier about the virus, apparently for political reasons, to get infected.
Hmm. I wonder. I would rather this was not happening. It's throwing uncertainty into something - TrumpToast on 3/11 - that imo was just about written.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Susan_Hennessey/status/1312057000596049920
This will go right to the wire I suspect.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1312044120760778752?s=20
https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1312047861425680386
Whereas cases shooting up as per their graph would have made them even more clever
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1311997238076465152?s=20
There are also laws against faithless electors in some States, so it makes sense for there to be an official Vice Presidential candidate in place before the election - even if ballots have been printed.
"The Betfair Exchange suspended betting on the US election for a brief period on Friday (October 2) in order to protect customers with unmatched bets in the market. Those bets have now been cancelled and the market re-opened at 16:30."
The point I was making is that the ticket is already set, the ballots are printed EC voters may not be able to vote for anyone else.
I can respect a philosophical idea of saying that it is better to let it run wild amongst the youth and not panic, but the bad science of people like Hodges is what really gets to me.
I have a very bad feeling on this one.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Meanwhile, we have the odd phenomenon of disproportionately high hospitalisations in Wales, versus low figures in Scotland. I'm assuming that Wales is getting hit hard because the bulk of the population lives in that band between Swansea and Newport, which has a not wholly dissimilar socio-economic profile to the major conurbations of Northern England. Scotland could simply be handling the pandemic better, or it could be a little bit behind England and Wales in this particular phase of it, in the same fashion as England and Wales turned out to be behind France. We shall know soon enough.
https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1312060210597564417
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-54387536
Then I realised what the situation was and calmed down.
Though maybe 8 inches taller?
And quite a bit older.
I'm still nervous for Biden.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1312064577388118016
Should have been axed about a year or two after Deayton left IMO. Now its just very stale.
Back in Madrid, the Madrid Hostelería association regrets the "imminent" closure of the premises at 11 pm due to the new measures approved, as there were "thousands of reservations" planned for today: "We do not understand how it has been possible to proceed with such an immediate closure, with just hours, and there are thousands of reservations for tonight, which can mean more than 8 million euros just today ", says the president of the association, Juan José Blardony
It’s mainly travel restrictions and limiting night time socializing, still to be challenged in the courts.
11pm...
The difficulty with this virus is that one never gets a chance to test counterfactuals.
NYTimes blog
https://twitter.com/DeAnna4Congress/status/1312037149546614786
https://twitter.com/DeAnna4Congress/status/1312064997254746112
"Asked today, almost one in five Brits (18%) say they have a list of enemies, either written down or in their head"
Unbelievable! How sad for them.
https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1312024444509073410
It's one of the tools of the trade, along with finding even one example of a policy not working or causing difficulties, thus proving it must be useless in its entirety.
https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1312053792276447232