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Biden’s national poll lead remains and the swing state surveys are looking positive – politicalbetti

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Comments

  • This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    I think we would. That aspiration was written into the WA and would have been governed by the joint committee.

    My Brexit is based on realpolitik and tough but fair compromises of economic convenience/disruption versus independence/freedom that work in the real world.

    But, I ended up falling down the middle between the two warring extremes.

    (Doesn't help that Theresa May couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst either)
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
    The key question for me is this. If we cannot rely on the state polls (they may err in favour of Trump, or in favour of Biden, or a mix from vendor to vendor) then what is the maximum national poll deficit that Trump can concede and still have a shot at winning the Electoral College?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 692
    edited September 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.
    Dunno, I quite like Purcell, although he's probably a bit old fashioned for some.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yep. As @Cyclefree noted based on her family's experience of running a pub.

    As I said the other day the Dutch looked at this early closing idea and backed away from it precisely for this reason.

    To me it just shouts 'look like we are doing something'.
    The Government are trying to scream blue murder at the public in the hope this changes behaviour so no further official tightening is necessary.

    Trouble is that even if it's 90% effective it probably won't be enough as just a small handful of superspreaders can transmit it to hundreds in days.
    The other trouble is it will take at least 2-3 weeks to know if this week's messages are working. Even if they do work then can the Government hold its nerve for that long?
  • DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    You also promised in your manifesto that 80 per cent of UK trade would be covered by free trade agreements by the end of 2022, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. That promise was disingenuous at best.

    The only way to get to 80% of our trade being covered by FTAs is through an FTA with the EU. Because if we don't, then even if we sign FTA's with the rest of the planet then we only have 55-60% of our trade covered - the missing 40-45% being with the EU - unless we more than halve the trade we have with the EU. That sort of massive realignment cannot happen in three years without wholesale disruption that loses votes.

    Anyway, we're nearly a third of the way through the three year period and, of the listed countries, only Japan is in the bag, 2% of our trade. Only 78% to go and you are trashing more than half of that.

    Some would say that governing should be about the preserving the peace and welfare of the governed - not about cherry picking promises from manifestos in order to make culture war points.
    To be fair the Government is trying to do that and pursuing FTAs with all of those at present.

    It's also agreed continuity agreements with more than you list including South Africa, East Africa, Switzerland etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368
    UK cases - by specimen date -

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368
    UK cases by specimen date, and scaled to 100K population

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    You also promised in your manifesto that 80 per cent of UK trade would be covered by free trade agreements by the end of 2022, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. That promise was disingenuous at best.

    The only way to get to 80% of our trade being covered by FTAs is through an FTA with the EU. Because if we don't, then even if we sign FTA's with the rest of the planet then we only have 55-60% of our trade covered - the missing 40-45% being with the EU - unless we more than halve the trade we have with the EU. That sort of massive realignment cannot happen in three years without wholesale disruption that loses votes.

    Anyway, we're nearly a third of the way through the three year period and, of the listed countries, only Japan is in the bag, 2% of our trade. Only 78% to go and you are trashing more than half of that.

    Some would say that governing should be about the preserving the peace and welfare of the governed - not about cherry picking promises from manifestos in order to make culture war points.
    HYUFD went into there are no tanks mode some time back.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368
    UK Cases summary

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  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
    The key question for me is this. If we cannot rely on the state polls (they may err in favour of Trump, or in favour of Biden, or a mix from vendor to vendor) then what is the maximum national poll deficit that Trump can concede and still have a shot at winning the Electoral College?
    I think Trump can lose the popular vote by 4% and still win the electoral college.

    4% would require near perfect vote distribution, but a 2-3% deficit should see him home.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368
    UK Hospitals

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602
    edited September 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
    On September 23rd 2016 Trump was averaging just 39% with 538

    Today Trump is averaging 45.9% with 538 ie 7% ahead of where he was in 2016
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,808
    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yes, I thought that. At 10pm you'll bat on, but at eleven you're happy to go home. (admittedly I don't know this Karen, but I presume she was a notional person)
    I assumed it was a reference to Macbeth
    Macduff. What three things does drink especially provoke?

    Porter. Marry, sir, nose-painting, sleep, and
    urine. Lechery, sir, it provokes, and unprovokes;
    it provokes the desire, but it takes
    away the performance: therefore, much drink
    may be said to be an equivocator with lechery:
    it makes him, and it mars him; it sets
    him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him,
    and disheartens him; makes him stand to, and
    not stand to; in conclusion, equivocates him
    in a sleep, and, giving him the lie, leaves him.
    Nice that you've nailed that down so conclusively.
    Not so sure what the nose painting is about. Maybe you had to be there.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 3,467

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    You also promised in your manifesto that 80 per cent of UK trade would be covered by free trade agreements by the end of 2022, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. That promise was disingenuous at best.

    The only way to get to 80% of our trade being covered by FTAs is through an FTA with the EU. Because if we don't, then even if we sign FTA's with the rest of the planet then we only have 55-60% of our trade covered - the missing 40-45% being with the EU - unless we more than halve the trade we have with the EU. That sort of massive realignment cannot happen in three years without wholesale disruption that loses votes.

    Anyway, we're nearly a third of the way through the three year period and, of the listed countries, only Japan is in the bag, 2% of our trade. Only 78% to go and you are trashing more than half of that.

    Some would say that governing should be about the preserving the peace and welfare of the governed - not about cherry picking promises from manifestos in order to make culture war points.
    To be fair the Government is trying to do that and pursuing FTAs with all of those at present.

    It's also agreed continuity agreements with more than you list including South Africa, East Africa, Switzerland etc.
    Great, that gets us to 60% at absolute maximum, not the promised/indicated 80%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368
    UK deaths

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    Trafalgar has Biden up by 3 in PA this time round.
    True but Trafalgar still has Trump ahead in Michigan and also has Trump ahead in Wisconsin
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
    The key question for me is this. If we cannot rely on the state polls (they may err in favour of Trump, or in favour of Biden, or a mix from vendor to vendor) then what is the maximum national poll deficit that Trump can concede and still have a shot at winning the Electoral College?
    I don't understand how Trump is even in contention in the marginals considering how far behind he is in the national polls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    You also promised in your manifesto that 80 per cent of UK trade would be covered by free trade agreements by the end of 2022, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. That promise was disingenuous at best.

    The only way to get to 80% of our trade being covered by FTAs is through an FTA with the EU. Because if we don't, then even if we sign FTA's with the rest of the planet then we only have 55-60% of our trade covered - the missing 40-45% being with the EU - unless we more than halve the trade we have with the EU. That sort of massive realignment cannot happen in three years without wholesale disruption that loses votes.

    Anyway, we're nearly a third of the way through the three year period and, of the listed countries, only Japan is in the bag, 2% of our trade. Only 78% to go and you are trashing more than half of that.

    Some would say that governing should be about the preserving the peace and welfare of the governed - not about cherry picking promises from manifestos in order to make culture war points.
    Governing is about winning an election to deliver your manifesto mainly, not about creating universal utopia
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 11,493
    DougSeal said:

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.

    Still better than Radiohead...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 24,088

    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yep. As @Cyclefree noted based on her family's experience of running a pub.

    As I said the other day the Dutch looked at this early closing idea and backed away from it precisely for this reason.

    To me it just shouts 'look like we are doing something'.
    The Government are trying to scream blue murder at the public in the hope this changes behaviour so no further official tightening is necessary.

    Trouble is that even if it's 90% effective it probably won't be enough as just a small handful of superspreaders can transmit it to hundreds in days.
    This is why we need to start talking about separation rather than isolation. Even if the government pays people £60 or £70 per day in separation it's going to be seriously more effective than self certified isolation after a positive result. That case in Bolton should have had alarm bells ringing because he isn't alone in ignoring isolation due to "feeling fine".
  • Scott_xP said:

    DougSeal said:

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.

    Still better than Radiohead...
    Oh, you're inviting a stare off with the ban hammer with language like that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,995
    The worrying thing about the Scottish CV19 case figures is that today's big jump is due in large part to Glasgow, where the current national no household mixing rule was already in place. Suggests maybe a low level of compliance in parts of that city?
  • This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    I think we would. That aspiration was written into the WA and would have been governed by the joint committee.

    My Brexit is based on realpolitik and tough but fair compromises of economic convenience/disruption versus independence/freedom that work in the real world.

    But, I ended up falling down the middle between the two warring extremes.

    (Doesn't help that Theresa May couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst either)
    Agreed about May. With a tougher leader from the outset compromises may have been possible from the start but it needed someone to show leadership on our side. In the vacuum May left both extremes took it upon themselves to set their stalls out and would only be happy once they'd vanquished the other. Which ended up happening.

    I have more optimism for compromises to be agreed now with Europe, precisely because Parliament-wise the UK is finally more united. The hard leavers vanquished the die hard Remainers, from Grieve through TIG and even the LDs lost their leader and have abandoned being pro Remain.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    You also promised in your manifesto that 80 per cent of UK trade would be covered by free trade agreements by the end of 2022, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. That promise was disingenuous at best.

    The only way to get to 80% of our trade being covered by FTAs is through an FTA with the EU. Because if we don't, then even if we sign FTA's with the rest of the planet then we only have 55-60% of our trade covered - the missing 40-45% being with the EU - unless we more than halve the trade we have with the EU. That sort of massive realignment cannot happen in three years without wholesale disruption that loses votes.

    Anyway, we're nearly a third of the way through the three year period and, of the listed countries, only Japan is in the bag, 2% of our trade. Only 78% to go and you are trashing more than half of that.

    Some would say that governing should be about the preserving the peace and welfare of the governed - not about cherry picking promises from manifestos in order to make culture war points.
    To be fair the Government is trying to do that and pursuing FTAs with all of those at present.

    It's also agreed continuity agreements with more than you list including South Africa, East Africa, Switzerland etc.
    Great, that gets us to 60% at absolute maximum, not the promised/indicated 80%.
    It's Government policy to get a trade deal with the EU.
  • DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.
    It's not so bad.

    Not so bad.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    Funny thing, free movement. I am by no means convinced voters and politicians have the same understanding of the concept. A government that increases non-EU immigration while making it difficult to take holidays (even after vaccination) might have done what it said on the tin but not what was expected or desired.
    The government is simply applying the same points system to EU immigrants as to non EU immigrants when the implementation period ends and that was exactly what the Tories 2019 manifesto promised to do
    There will be no change then. The big deception has always been that the Conservatives when in government have had full control over 50% of immigration even when we were part of the EU, ie. non-EU migration. They did nothing to control it then. Now we have the most incompetent Conservative Government in history, I cannot see it improving. We will probably just have more immigrants from the Indian subcontinent and less from Poland.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,199
    Tip for those stockpiling: Morrisons is selling Filippo Berio Extra Virgin Olive Oil for £3.50 per 750ml. Fill your boots.
  • UK cases - by specimen date -

    image

    The North/South divide remains and is extraordinary
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.
    Dunno, I quite like Purcell, although he's probably a bit old fashioned for some.
    The Dido we're talking about is to management what Hannan is to intellectuals.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,774
    FF43 said:

    The worrying thing about the Scottish CV19 case figures is that today's big jump is due in large part to Glasgow, where the current national no household mixing rule was already in place. Suggests maybe a low level of compliance in parts of that city?

    or the measures are total boll8x....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,091
    FF43 said:

    The worrying thing about the Scottish CV19 case figures is that today's big jump is due in large part to Glasgow, where the current national no household mixing rule was already in place. Suggests maybe a low level of compliance in parts of that city?

    Or a transmission method that isn't to do with that. Schools perhaps.

    Opening the schools was always going to increase case incidence and so it has come to pass.

    The key is for the govt(s) to be upfront with the public.

    Their policy (which as I said I have applauded) of opening schools will have knock on effects elsewhere. They need to explain what these knock on effects will be.

    Rather than blaming the public for non-conformance of the rules/guidance/law/regulation.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,926

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    The Home Counties' answer to the DMZ.
    Nobody's going to fight to get into Kent!

    Even William the Conqueror decided that it could be circumvented. I've no idea how many lorries were parked there at the time, but enough is enough. Those early SatNavs though were quite bad. The Spanish finished up in the Americas when all they wanted was to seize the Isle of Wight. Thus imagining total primitives they were a bit shocked!
  • Off topic, it's no wonder there's a crisis in care homes.

    I went to one this afternoon (it's a direct neighbour) to hand deliver a letter to the manager about an overhanging tree on my property.

    The security was as lax as fuck. No gate to the drive. Front door totally unlocked (and open) just a printer sign saying voters weren't to walk in (I could easily have done so).

    I followed arrows round the back (where visitors are supposed to go) got totally lost and found two cleaners/carers having a fag and a laugh out the side of a garden room - sharing phones and pictures on them - no masks. No visors. Nothing. I asked them politely and they kindly took my letter.

    But, never put your parents in one of those - ever - unless you have absolutely no alternative. They'll bankrupt you but, most importantly, they're simply not safe.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    Funny thing, free movement. I am by no means convinced voters and politicians have the same understanding of the concept. A government that increases non-EU immigration while making it difficult to take holidays (even after vaccination) might have done what it said on the tin but not what was expected or desired.
    The government is simply applying the same points system to EU immigrants as to non EU immigrants when the implementation period ends and that was exactly what the Tories 2019 manifesto promised to do
    There will be no change then. The big deception has always been that the Conservatives when in government have had full control over 50% of immigration even when we were part of the EU, ie. non-EU migration. They did nothing to control it then. Now we have the most incompetent Conservative Government in history, I cannot see it improving. We will probably just have more immigrants from the Indian subcontinent and less from Poland.
    That's just not true. Non EU migration has been under draconian controls for a long time. Even British citizens living overseas married for decades with children have major hoops to jump through if they want to move here with their spouse.
  • Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.
    Dunno, I quite like Purcell, although he's probably a bit old fashioned for some.
    The Dido we're talking about is to management what Hannan is to intellectuals.
    She is to management effectiveness what Boris Johnson is to honesty and statesmanship lol.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,745

    Tip for those stockpiling: Morrisons is selling Filippo Berio Extra Virgin Olive Oil for £3.50 per 750ml. Fill your boots.

    Oh yuk, that will be very messy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,035

    6,178!

    Dan Hodges will be polishing a graph as we speak.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,035
    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    Tip for those stockpiling: Morrisons is selling Filippo Berio Extra Virgin Olive Oil for £3.50 per 750ml. Fill your boots.

    Odd thing to do with olive oil.
  • So how long do we give it until Boris has to implement no household mixing?

    October, which is next week.
    The Halloween gear is on the supermarket shelves, though HMG may by then have banned trick or treating, even with masks.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,019
    edited September 2020

    This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    I think we would. That aspiration was written into the WA and would have been governed by the joint committee.

    My Brexit is based on realpolitik and tough but fair compromises of economic convenience/disruption versus independence/freedom that work in the real world.

    But, I ended up falling down the middle between the two warring extremes.

    (Doesn't help that Theresa May couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst either)
    Agreed about May. With a tougher leader from the outset compromises may have been possible from the start but it needed someone to show leadership on our side. In the vacuum May left both extremes took it upon themselves to set their stalls out and would only be happy once they'd vanquished the other. Which ended up happening.

    I have more optimism for compromises to be agreed now with Europe, precisely because Parliament-wise the UK is finally more united. The hard leavers vanquished the die hard Remainers, from Grieve through TIG and even the LDs lost their leader and have abandoned being pro Remain.
    One can't be Remain; we've left, so someone will, once some semblance of normal politics returns, campaign for Sanity and Rejoin.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,745
    Nigelb said:

    Tip for those stockpiling: Morrisons is selling Filippo Berio Extra Virgin Olive Oil for £3.50 per 750ml. Fill your boots.

    Odd thing to do with olive oil.
    Snap
  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,774
    Bloomberg saying planned UK budget this autumn is cancelled.

    Because many tory MPs would not vote for it???
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tip for those stockpiling: Morrisons is selling Filippo Berio Extra Virgin Olive Oil for £3.50 per 750ml. Fill your boots.

    Odd thing to do with olive oil.
    Snap
    You squelch around, too ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 88,818
    edited September 2020
    Alistair said:

    6,178!

    Dan Hodges will be polishing a graph as we speak.
    Will it be impressive as the inevitable Alistair Hames trend line showing no uptick but a decline?
  • eekeek Posts: 10,258

    Bloomberg saying planned UK budget this autumn is cancelled.

    Because many tory MPs would not vote for it???

    I thought we knew that - as I'm sure I posted that last week - it's delayed until the Spring by which time they may have a clue WTF is going on.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,995
    Scott_xP said:
    Once he becomes Dear Leader, the independent state previously known as Kent will be renamed Faragia
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,035

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
    The key question for me is this. If we cannot rely on the state polls (they may err in favour of Trump, or in favour of Biden, or a mix from vendor to vendor) then what is the maximum national poll deficit that Trump can concede and still have a shot at winning the Electoral College?
    How realistic do you want it? I have a spreadsheet dubbed "The Nightmare Scenario" where Biden has a 7 point national lead and due to over performance in California, New York and Georgia (but falling short) combined with underperformance in the Rust Belt Trump wins.

    With a 7 point national deficit.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,467
    edited September 2020

    This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    I think we would. That aspiration was written into the WA and would have been governed by the joint committee.

    My Brexit is based on realpolitik and tough but fair compromises of economic convenience/disruption versus independence/freedom that work in the real world.

    But, I ended up falling down the middle between the two warring extremes.

    (Doesn't help that Theresa May couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst either)
    Agreed about May. With a tougher leader from the outset compromises may have been possible from the start but it needed someone to show leadership on our side. In the vacuum May left both extremes took it upon themselves to set their stalls out and would only be happy once they'd vanquished the other. Which ended up happening.

    I have more optimism for compromises to be agreed now with Europe, precisely because Parliament-wise the UK is finally more united. The hard leavers vanquished the die hard Remainers, from Grieve through TIG and even the LDs lost their leader and have abandoned being pro Remain.
    The LDs didn't "abandon" being pro Remain; they lost the battle to remain. Big difference! The LDs are, of course, still of the opinion that Brexit will be little short of disastrous for the UK, but there is little that they can do now other than to be ready to help with picking up the pieces of a shattered economy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,745
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tip for those stockpiling: Morrisons is selling Filippo Berio Extra Virgin Olive Oil for £3.50 per 750ml. Fill your boots.

    Odd thing to do with olive oil.
    Snap
    You squelch around, too ?
    I mean what else would you do with Olive Oil?
  • eekeek Posts: 10,258

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    Too early for that - outside of Scotland, Freshers week only started on Monday (of this week)
  • isamisam Posts: 34,839
    Scott_xP said:
    3/1 against I'd say, rather than 3/1 on

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,426
    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    Too early for that - outside of Scotland, Freshers week only started on Monday (of this week)
    Pre-freshers
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,091

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    All part of education of young people.

    The question is what will the government say must be given up in exchange? And will they give us a straight answer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478
    Scott_xP said:
    Still strangely fond of gambling, apparently.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,199
    @kjh and @Nigelb touché. :D

    I should have said “fill your avocado and quinoa salads”.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,926

    This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    I think we would. That aspiration was written into the WA and would have been governed by the joint committee.

    My Brexit is based on realpolitik and tough but fair compromises of economic convenience/disruption versus independence/freedom that work in the real world.

    But, I ended up falling down the middle between the two warring extremes.

    (Doesn't help that Theresa May couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst either)
    Agreed about May. With a tougher leader from the outset compromises may have been possible from the start but it needed someone to show leadership on our side. In the vacuum May left both extremes took it upon themselves to set their stalls out and would only be happy once they'd vanquished the other. Which ended up happening.

    I have more optimism for compromises to be agreed now with Europe, precisely because Parliament-wise the UK is finally more united. The hard leavers vanquished the die hard Remainers, from Grieve through TIG and even the LDs lost their leader and have abandoned being pro Remain.
    One can't be Remain; we've left, so someone will, once some semblance of normal politics returns, campaign for Sanity and Rejoin.
    Sanity and rejoining seem somewhat estranged to me.

    The UK can't rejoin, number one because the EU's broken bits are quite how the UK described them, and number 2 because the UK has blown its bridges to the good bits,

    (My guess) The EU will fail. A slightly less arsy EU will then emerge and succeed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,035
    FF43 said:

    The worrying thing about the Scottish CV19 case figures is that today's big jump is due in large part to Glasgow, where the current national no household mixing rule was already in place. Suggests maybe a low level of compliance in parts of that city?

    University of Glasgow Fresher's Week 12th September-18th September
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,199
    edited September 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Nah @Philip_Thompson seems to think Italy are queuing up to copy our test and trace system instead, as it’s the best.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    @kjh and @Nigelb touché. :D

    I should have said “fill your avocado and quinoa salads”.

    That would still be firkin ridiculous.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there.

    It's Freshers Flu I bet. Students have moved into accomodation and this happens every damn year. Not their fault, but I bet it's what is behind the bulk of it.

    It matches the figures saying young adults, not children, are behind the spike. The Government would be well advised to tell students who are living on campus to stay on campus until the end of term and to try not to go home for weekends.
  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    A bit early for students to have caught the virus, developed the disease and been tested, isn't it? When did they go back? I thought it was last week or even this.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,745

    @kjh and @Nigelb touché. :D

    I should have said “fill your avocado and quinoa salads”.

    I think you should take the credit. You set it up nicely for us.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,199

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    A bit early for students to have caught the virus, developed the disease and been tested, isn't it? When did they go back? I thought it was last week or even this.
    This week OR next week.
  • NY POST - MAN HAS KEPT NIXON'S HALF-EATEN SANDWICH FOR 60 YEARS

    Steve Jenne, from the small town of Sullivan [Illinois], was a 14-year-old Boy Scout when the then-vice president made a campaign stop to Jenne’s hometown on Sept. 22, 1960.

    Ahead of a speech at Wyman Park, Nixon was served a barbecue buffalo sandwich on a paper plate during a cookout and when he was finished, Jenne snatched up the leftovers.

    “He took a couple of bites and commented on how tasty, how good it was,” Jenne, whose Boy Scout troop was asked to serve as an honor guard for Nixon during the cookout, told the [Decatur, IL] Herald & Review.

    “Once he left, I just looked down at the picnic table and everybody else was gone and that half-eaten sandwich was still on the paper plate,” Jenne recalled.

    “I looked around and thought, ‘If no one else was going to take it, I am going to take it,’” he told the news outlet.

    With Nixon’s half-eaten sandwich in tow, Jenne hopped on his bicycle and sped home to show his mom his unique souvenir.

    “I ran in the door and I said, ‘Mom, I got the sandwich that Nixon took a couple bites out of,’ and she was surprised and said, ‘So, what do you want me to do with it?’ So I said, ‘Freeze it,’” Jenne explained.

    Jenne’s mother, “in her infinite wisdom,” then wrapped up the sandwich in a plastic bag, put it inside a Musselman’s apple sauce jar and “stuck it in the freezer,” he said.

    “And that’s the way it still is today,” said Jenne, who now lives in Springfield.

    Ever since, Jenne has kept the Nixon-eaten sandwich frozen — and it once earned him a guest appearance on an episode of the “Tonight Show” with television legend Johnny Carson in 1988.

    Jenne even published a book this year called “The Sandwich That Changed My Life!” about the wacky story.

    “As long as I am living, that sandwich will be stored in my freezer in a container that is labeled, ‘Save, don’t throw away,’ ” Jenne said.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/22/man-has-kept-richard-nixons-half-eaten-sandwich-for-60-years/
  • TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    All part of education of young people.

    The question is what will the government say must be given up in exchange? And will they give us a straight answer.
    Perhaps nothing should be given up, except trips home. Deal with the issue and burn it out. The students are pretty safe, they need to be helped to stay contained in their accomodation and not spread it far and wide.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there...
    And you know this how ?

  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    A bit early for students to have caught the virus, developed the disease and been tested, isn't it? When did they go back? I thought it was last week or even this.
    This week OR next week.
    I think Scotland students went back 2 weeks ago
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,938
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Youngest tells me his is the only high school in the county without a positive.
    Not sure of the veracity, but that schools are playing no part seems a bold conclusion.
  • eek said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    Too early for that - outside of Scotland, Freshers week only started on Monday (of this week)
    A lot of students move into accomodation weeks before Freshers Week. In my town they moved in a few weeks ago despite it only starting this week.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,839
    My Dad had a cancer op last Oct, became a Grandfather for the first time in Nov, and got Sepsis in Dec. Obviously he was in the vulnerable group during lockdown.

    He says being with his Grandson has made him happier than he has ever been in his life (bit of a diss on his son), and he comes round at every opportunity to take him for a walk. So what do we do, tell him to stay away?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,199

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there.

    It's Freshers Flu I bet. Students have moved into accomodation and this happens every damn year. Not their fault, but I bet it's what is behind the bulk of it.

    It matches the figures saying young adults, not children, are behind the spike. The Government would be well advised to tell students who are living on campus to stay on campus until the end of term and to try not to go home for weekends.
    Only 1st year students tend to live in student accommodation. Otherwise they live amongst the community. In Jesmond or Heaton in Newcastle, in Edgebaston or Selly Oak in Birmingham, in Fallowfield or Withington in Manchester. Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,995
    edited September 2020
    Omnium said:

    This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    I think we would. That aspiration was written into the WA and would have been governed by the joint committee.

    My Brexit is based on realpolitik and tough but fair compromises of economic convenience/disruption versus independence/freedom that work in the real world.

    But, I ended up falling down the middle between the two warring extremes.

    (Doesn't help that Theresa May couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst either)
    Agreed about May. With a tougher leader from the outset compromises may have been possible from the start but it needed someone to show leadership on our side. In the vacuum May left both extremes took it upon themselves to set their stalls out and would only be happy once they'd vanquished the other. Which ended up happening.

    I have more optimism for compromises to be agreed now with Europe, precisely because Parliament-wise the UK is finally more united. The hard leavers vanquished the die hard Remainers, from Grieve through TIG and even the LDs lost their leader and have abandoned being pro Remain.
    One can't be Remain; we've left, so someone will, once some semblance of normal politics returns, campaign for Sanity and Rejoin.
    Sanity and rejoining seem somewhat estranged to me.

    The UK can't rejoin, number one because the EU's broken bits are quite how the UK described them, and number 2 because the UK has blown its bridges to the good bits,

    (My guess) The EU will fail. A slightly less arsy EU will then emerge and succeed.
    I don't think either that the UK will rejoin the EU or that it will fail. Sullen "Vassal State" status is the most likely medium to long term outurn IMO. Constantly fighting the EU is too tiring and damaging so we will just go along with it, while resenting them telling us what to do. It's really not a good place to have got into.

    Having said that, it is a genuinely fascinating conundrum about how the Brexit contradiction gets resolved, if it ever does.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    NY POST - MAN HAS KEPT NIXON'S HALF-EATEN SANDWICH FOR 60 YEARS

    Steve Jenne, from the small town of Sullivan [Illinois], was a 14-year-old Boy Scout when the then-vice president made a campaign stop to Jenne’s hometown on Sept. 22, 1960.

    Ahead of a speech at Wyman Park, Nixon was served a barbecue buffalo sandwich on a paper plate during a cookout and when he was finished, Jenne snatched up the leftovers.

    “He took a couple of bites and commented on how tasty, how good it was,” Jenne, whose Boy Scout troop was asked to serve as an honor guard for Nixon during the cookout, told the [Decatur, IL] Herald & Review.

    “Once he left, I just looked down at the picnic table and everybody else was gone and that half-eaten sandwich was still on the paper plate,” Jenne recalled.

    “I looked around and thought, ‘If no one else was going to take it, I am going to take it,’” he told the news outlet.

    With Nixon’s half-eaten sandwich in tow, Jenne hopped on his bicycle and sped home to show his mom his unique souvenir.

    “I ran in the door and I said, ‘Mom, I got the sandwich that Nixon took a couple bites out of,’ and she was surprised and said, ‘So, what do you want me to do with it?’ So I said, ‘Freeze it,’” Jenne explained.

    Jenne’s mother, “in her infinite wisdom,” then wrapped up the sandwich in a plastic bag, put it inside a Musselman’s apple sauce jar and “stuck it in the freezer,” he said.

    “And that’s the way it still is today,” said Jenne, who now lives in Springfield.

    Ever since, Jenne has kept the Nixon-eaten sandwich frozen — and it once earned him a guest appearance on an episode of the “Tonight Show” with television legend Johnny Carson in 1988.

    Jenne even published a book this year called “The Sandwich That Changed My Life!” about the wacky story.

    “As long as I am living, that sandwich will be stored in my freezer in a container that is labeled, ‘Save, don’t throw away,’ ” Jenne said.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/22/man-has-kept-richard-nixons-half-eaten-sandwich-for-60-years/

    Do we know what happened to the Milliband butty ?
    Of far greater historical significance.
  • Bloomberg saying planned UK budget this autumn is cancelled.

    Because many tory MPs would not vote for it???

    No.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 2,467
    edited September 2020

    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    All part of education of young people.

    The question is what will the government say must be given up in exchange? And will they give us a straight answer.
    Perhaps nothing should be given up, except trips home. Deal with the issue and burn it out. The students are pretty safe, they need to be helped to stay contained in their accomodation and not spread it far and wide.
    Many students have part-time jobs alongside their studies. A concrete step might be to pay them to stay away from work, but I doubt that the government is sufficiently well organised to take actual action.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,464

    This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    Still a better outcome than where we appear headed
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,091

    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    All part of education of young people.

    The question is what will the government say must be given up in exchange? And will they give us a straight answer.
    Perhaps nothing should be given up, except trips home. Deal with the issue and burn it out. The students are pretty safe, they need to be helped to stay contained in their accomodation and not spread it far and wide.
    Perhaps you are right. But do you think Boris will opt for that, or to lockdown the country?
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there.

    It's Freshers Flu I bet. Students have moved into accomodation and this happens every damn year. Not their fault, but I bet it's what is behind the bulk of it.

    It matches the figures saying young adults, not children, are behind the spike. The Government would be well advised to tell students who are living on campus to stay on campus until the end of term and to try not to go home for weekends.
    Only 1st year students tend to live in student accommodation. Otherwise they live amongst the community. In Jesmond or Heaton in Newcastle, in Edgebaston or Selly Oak in Birmingham, in Fallowfield or Withington in Manchester. Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about.
    I know what I'm talking about. And it's many of those ones in the community who will have moved into their (often shared) accomodation weeks ago too.

    Perhaps I misphrased things by emphasising campus which I didn't mean to do. I meant those living away from home. Eg a student who has moved from their home town to student accomodation in Manchester should probably be advised to stay in Manchester and not travel back home for the weekend.
  • MangoMango Posts: 834
    MaxPB said:

    Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.

    Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.
    Strange then that the Telegraph is shouting it so loudly, unless...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,091
    isam said:

    My Dad had a cancer op last Oct, became a Grandfather for the first time in Nov, and got Sepsis in Dec. Obviously he was in the vulnerable group during lockdown.

    He says being with his Grandson has made him happier than he has ever been in his life (bit of a diss on his son), and he comes round at every opportunity to take him for a walk. So what do we do, tell him to stay away?

    Blimey the fact that he has come through sepsis is cause for celebration on its own - very pleased to hear that.

    As for your question? He is a grown up and I have no doubt he will make the best decision for him as to whether he prefers to be with his family or on his own.

    As should be the case more widely.

    Of course, the absolute tragedy (as we have seen very sadly this morning with @Dura_Ace) is that places which are supposed to be safe and where such a decision process should not be necessary - ie a hospital - are fucking well not.
  • Bloomberg saying planned UK budget this autumn is cancelled.

    Because many tory MPs would not vote for it???

    The numbers are so bad that Rishi doesn't want to read them out.
  • Government clarification: "Chauffeur-driven cars will be exempt from the laws enforcing passengers to wear masks in taxis"

    Well thank feck for that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,066
    edited September 2020
    isam said:

    My Dad had a cancer op last Oct, became a Grandfather for the first time in Nov, and got Sepsis in Dec. Obviously he was in the vulnerable group during lockdown.

    He says being with his Grandson has made him happier than he has ever been in his life (bit of a diss on his son), and he comes round at every opportunity to take him for a walk. So what do we do, tell him to stay away?

    Add him to your bubble; put the boy in the pram/buggy yourself; IANAQuack.

    ETA the buggy means they are socially-distanced anyway so just ban hugging, kissing and nappy-changing!
  • The UK may be 'weeks behind' its target of 500,000 tests a day due to a shortage of vital chemicals and analysing machines, it has been revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8764767/Boris-Johnsons-target-carrying-500-000-coronavirus-tests-day-threat.html

    Reagent shortage again. Apparently US test turnaround times have slowed to a crawl because of this.
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there.

    It's Freshers Flu I bet. Students have moved into accomodation and this happens every damn year. Not their fault, but I bet it's what is behind the bulk of it.

    It matches the figures saying young adults, not children, are behind the spike. The Government would be well advised to tell students who are living on campus to stay on campus until the end of term and to try not to go home for weekends.
    Only 1st year students tend to live in student accommodation. Otherwise they live amongst the community. In Jesmond or Heaton in Newcastle, in Edgebaston or Selly Oak in Birmingham, in Fallowfield or Withington in Manchester. Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about.
    There is no community in many of those areas. Just student lets. Essentially a terraced hall of residence.
  • isam said:

    My Dad had a cancer op last Oct, became a Grandfather for the first time in Nov, and got Sepsis in Dec. Obviously he was in the vulnerable group during lockdown.

    He says being with his Grandson has made him happier than he has ever been in his life (bit of a diss on his son), and he comes round at every opportunity to take him for a walk. So what do we do, tell him to stay away?

    No. Meet up with him outside and allow them to have time together (where curtain twitching neighbours can't see you).
This discussion has been closed.