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Biden’s national poll lead remains and the swing state surveys are looking positive – politicalbetti

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Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,287
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
    @OnlyLivingBoy can send you some loo roll if you run short.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,956

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    It is unprecedented. Never in the peacetime history of this country has there been a requirement for trucks to enter a county. Think about it. Any lorry, including removal vans, furniture delivery, will require a pass to come to my house. That's unprecedented.
  • FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And this gives us the superior cards?
    Yes.

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.
  • Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    Will the Kent border need military patrols to keep economic refugees like Nigel Farage out of the UK?

  • TOPPING said:

    On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.
    keep us posted
    Will do. I will keep a special eye out for any race riots a la SeanT.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,287

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What Christmas?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,956
    IanB2 said:

    At this rate the citizens of Kent will need to found a First United Kent Unionist Party.

    At our mock election at secondary school in 1987 the Kent Independence Party won
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,926

    So does a HGV need one permit that works indefinitely, or do they need to apply for one for a specific day or time window? If so, how long will the “application process” take? What happens if all the “slots” fill up? Is it going to be a free for all first come first serve system like the covid-19 testing system?

    Will the proceedure be finalised and all the hardware/software in place for the first week in January?
  • FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    "our superior cards" ?!! ffs, you are one of the few deluded sad folk that still believe that bollox. Actually, scrap that "one of", as mentioned before, one person cannot have the time or capacity to be on here 24/7.

    You are not Philip Thompson; you are actually a series of round the clock spotty faced Tory boys on what used to be known as YTS to Conservative Central Office.
  • IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Four years after the vote and suddenly we discover goods need a permit to enter Kent? Did no one think of this before?
    Probably not. The Single Market has been a thing for about 30 years now, and its benefits are like underfloor heating- first invisible, then taken for granted. We don't see them, because they're mostly about the absence of bad things (like border paperwork and massive queues while said paperwork is checked). So we start to assume that they're just how things are, and forget the effort that went into making things that way.
  • TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
    @OnlyLivingBoy can send you some loo roll if you run short.
    Are you mad? I've only got 15 rolls! And I have to drive on the A2 to get to Sainsbury's so I'll be eating out of bins by then anyway.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,926
    Scott_xP said:
    Under a No Deal Brexit, the Royal Sandwich Golf Course remains in the EU.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,674
    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf
  • DougSeal said:

    IanB2 said:

    At this rate the citizens of Kent will need to found a First United Kent Unionist Party.

    At our mock election at secondary school in 1987 the Kent Independence Party won
    Early KIPpers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,260
    Scott_xP said:
    Kent was an independent Kingdom from 455 until 871, Scotland was only established as one Kingdom in 843
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Four years after the vote and suddenly we discover goods need a permit to enter Kent? Did no one think of this before?
    Probably not. The Single Market has been a thing for about 30 years now, and its benefits are like underfloor heating- first invisible, then taken for granted. We don't see them, because they're mostly about the absence of bad things (like border paperwork and massive queues while said paperwork is checked). So we start to assume that they're just how things are, and forget the effort that went into making things that way.
    And the tragic irony of it all is that much of that was a British achievement,
  • IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842

    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    There’s a footpath that runs over the hills as well, which I remember from my childhood. Never imagined that one day it might become a smugglers’ trail.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,674

    DougSeal said:

    IanB2 said:

    At this rate the citizens of Kent will need to found a First United Kent Unionist Party.

    At our mock election at secondary school in 1987 the Kent Independence Party won
    Early KIPpers.
    Bravo :D

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    That's not fair at all. Theresa May for all her faults would have avoided a border in Kent, and largely minimised a border in the Irish Sea. Both those are the creations of your hero, BJ.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,571

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.

    Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.
    Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?

    That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
    Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.

    Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
    I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.

    As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).
    Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.
    No, not a gamechanger. I wonder who would be the celebrity endorsement for Biden that might bring the Rustbelt firmly into his column. Hard to think of one. It would have to be somebody with massive blue collar appeal who is usually apolitical, and if anything has more of a conservative than a liberal vibe to them. And actually, just typing that, there is someone very obvious that springs to mind - Dolly Parton.
    Joe B, Joe B, Joe B, Joe Beeeeee...
    :smile: - thank god someone's on the ball.
  • The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,674
    IanB2 said:

    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    There’s a footpath that runs over the hills as well, which I remember from my childhood. Never imagined that one day it might become a smugglers’ trail.
    People like you who know the lie of the land from their youth will command a pretty penny as sherpas in the black economy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,287

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
    @OnlyLivingBoy can send you some loo roll if you run short.
    Are you mad? I've only got 15 rolls! And I have to drive on the A2 to get to Sainsbury's so I'll be eating out of bins by then anyway.
    :smile:
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Four years after the vote and suddenly we discover goods need a permit to enter Kent? Did no one think of this before?
    Probably not. The Single Market has been a thing for about 30 years now, and its benefits are like underfloor heating- first invisible, then taken for granted. We don't see them, because they're mostly about the absence of bad things (like border paperwork and massive queues while said paperwork is checked). So we start to assume that they're just how things are, and forget the effort that went into making things that way.
    And the tragic irony of it all is that much of that was a British achievement,
    Don't it always seem to go
    That you don't know what you've got
    'Til it's gone
    They paved paradise
    Put up a parking lot
  • FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    That's not fair at all. Theresa May for all her faults would have avoided a border in Kent, and largely minimised a border in the Irish Sea. Both those are the creations of your hero, BJ.
    Yes she would have done that by trapping us within EU rules. That's not progress.
  • There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    If it helps, here in Sussex we have a proud history of smugglers. I'm sure the trade could be revived to help oil the wheels of commerce across into Kent.

    Brandy for the Parson, ‘Baccy for the Clerk.
    Them that asks no questions isn’t told a lie –
    Watch the wall my darling while the Gentlemen go by!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
    Lately I've been finding some very drinkable Puglian and Sicilian wines. White as well as reds. If one hunts about there are some very interesting wines from previously unrecognised countries. There were some very pleasant Thai ones for example. One of these days, too I'm going to find some Indian ones; I hear they can be good, but I've never found any.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,926

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    No it is not the same. A tunnel, bridge or motorway has very few entry points, so it is very easy to set up and control. For a county border you need to check every little road that crosses that border.
    The only similar thing I know of in the UK is the Congestion Charge in central London, and they were setting up the hard infrastructure for that for over a year before the charge actually started.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,287

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    That's not fair at all. Theresa May for all her faults would have avoided a border in Kent, and largely minimised a border in the Irish Sea. Both those are the creations of your hero, BJ.
    Yes she would have done that by trapping us within EU rules. That's not progress.
    Finally we have played the let's establish internal barriers in the United Kingdom card.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    That's not fair at all. Theresa May for all her faults would have avoided a border in Kent, and largely minimised a border in the Irish Sea. Both those are the creations of your hero, BJ.
    Yes she would have done that by trapping us within EU rules. That's not progress.
    We were talking about the lack of preparation for Johnson's preferred choices. Actually.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    Will the Kent border need military patrols to keep economic refugees like Nigel Farage out of the UK?

    As was pointed out here recently, during the Miners Strike there were patrols at the Dartford Tunnel to stop parties from the old Kent coalfield going North.
  • The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

    Blame game?

    We're the ones that voted to leave.
  • FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    That's not fair at all. Theresa May for all her faults would have avoided a border in Kent, and largely minimised a border in the Irish Sea. Both those are the creations of your hero, BJ.
    Yes she would have done that by trapping us within EU rules. That's not progress.
    Yes and having to border off one of our counties is I suppose
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,466

    On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.
    We are down to our last 72 bog rolls. I need to point out that I was not involved in past purchasing decisions!

    Last of the 'Lockdown 60' currently nearing the end of the roll...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,241

    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.

    Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
    So Scotland has suddenly accelerated ahead of England from a position when we were doing better than the average, if not quite matching the SW.

    When you think about why, and I really, really hate to say this, by far the most obvious explanation is that our kids went back to school 2-3 weeks earlier than England. Bugger. If we cannot get the R rate under 1 with kids attending school we have an absolute nightmare on our hands.
    The idea that having schools go back would not increase the rate of infection was and is ridiculous. Just look at all the possible permutations - three siblings in different years each with after-school activities with people from other scholls for example and you have the whole of one school open to cross contamination and any number of other schools likewise via the after-school activities.

    But Boris says the increasing case rate is our fault.
    Increasing case numbers are coming from young adults not children at the minute.
    First off we don't know the delivery mechanism. Second, sending children back to school brings in all kinds of other people from older siblings to teaching assistants to nannies to you name it.

    The whole paraphernalia of getting children back to schools - a policy I happen to agree with - was going to increase the infection rate.

    The question is what price are we willing to pay to let it happen.
    "What’s really missing, of course... is a clear statement of what the new national mission is so that we can debate it. Is this about keeping deaths down to a certain level? Is it about keeping hospitalisations within the health system’s capacity? What are the long-term economic and health costs of our approach?"

    Telegraph
    The clear statement (and Boris just repeated it at PMQs) is to keep the virus contained at a manageable level untl a vaccine becomes available.
    Yeah. I've been critical of the lack of a clear aim.
    But the PM clearly outlined one yesterday and repeated it today.
    Just because the Telegraph doesn't like it does not mean it doesn't exist.
    I didn't see PMQs. Did he give a clue what "manageable" means?

    And if the plan is to do this until the vaccine arrives what if that is in three years time?

    No he didn't. Boris and SMART targets are strangers really. Like he's kinds heard of them, and vaguely knows he's been told they are important, but that 3 out of the 5 is probably sufficient for now.
    It worked for Brexit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 43,126

    The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

    There will be a lot of paperwork irrespective of the deal or a "no deal".

    This has been inevitable since the decision to withdraw from the single market/customs union - which was solely the UK's decision and solely the UK's responsibility to prepare for.

    Anything about "the EU" is just blame shifting.

  • eristdoof said:

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    No it is not the same. A tunnel, bridge or motorway has very few entry points, so it is very easy to set up and control. For a county border you need to check every little road that crosses that border.
    The only similar thing I know of in the UK is the Congestion Charge in central London, and they were setting up the hard infrastructure for that for over a year before the charge actually started.
    ANPR already exists on the main arteries.

    Checking every little road is only necessary if you want 100% success rate. It depends what the priority of the scheme is. If you're looking for a scheme that works, if the purpose of the scheme is to turn away vehicles before they reach the border if they're not prepared to avoid congestion then doing so on the vehicles routes is sufficient.

    Sometimes it's about a solution that is good enough not perfect.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,956

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And this gives us the superior cards?
    Yes.

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.
    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,543
    Will Nige be able to be crowned the first king of Kent since Æthelred ?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,926

    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    The historic Biggin Hill Airfield just manages to stay in the UK by about a mile. That'll keep the Brexiteers happy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842
    edited September 23

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
    Lately I've been finding some very drinkable Puglian and Sicilian wines. White as well as reds. If one hunts about there are some very interesting wines from previously unrecognised countries. There were some very pleasant Thai ones for example. One of these days, too I'm going to find some Indian ones; I hear they can be good, but I've never found any.
    In Sicily nowadays there’s a much better chance that the contents of the bottle bear some relation to what’s on the label, unlike the bad old days.

    Virgin used to stock an Indian wine, but it must be out of stock. Try here:

    https://www.novelwines.co.uk/collections/india?gclid=CjwKCAjw5Kv7BRBSEiwAXGDElX0xWPtBEtrA3TnZdoQboY3QfOq6JTYKOGbDK0QvcL1Yn_LHAUhtOBoCcSUQAvD_BwE

    Urla Vourla from Turkey is also very good, as is the long time classic Chateau Musar from Lebanon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842
    eristdoof said:

    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    The historic Biggin Hill Airfield just manages to stay in the UK by about a mile. That'll keep the Brexiteers happy.
    Bet they still charge a fortune for landing there and then keep you on the runway for ages for incoming traffic. Given free choice they’d probably opt to join Kent so they could levy a customs charge as well.
  • The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

    There will be a lot of paperwork irrespective of the deal or a "no deal".

    This has been inevitable since the decision to withdraw from the single market/customs union - which was solely the UK's decision and solely the UK's responsibility to prepare for.

    Anything about "the EU" is just blame shifting.

    Not if the deal includes a further transition
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 413
    edited September 23
    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Under a No Deal Brexit, the Royal Sandwich Golf Course remains in the EU.
    "No trespassers, no dogs, no women" (as it genuinely used to say at the entrance)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296
    The Dartford Crossing will be solid for months. It's bad enough now.
  • I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 86,532
    edited September 23
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Nige be able to be crowned the first king of Kent since Æthelred ?

    For age's been the King of ... oh wait you said KENT.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296

    I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    This is a betting site. Is that an invitation.......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,024

    I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    Ah, you think the government is pulling the wool over the eyes of Brexiteers and they will end up kicking the can down the road again?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842
    edited September 23

    IanB2 said:

    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    There’s a footpath that runs over the hills as well, which I remember from my childhood. Never imagined that one day it might become a smugglers’ trail.
    People like you who know the lie of the land from their youth will command a pretty penny as sherpas in the black economy.
    Yes, we’ll have to take people over at night carrying heavy packs on our back, and pass them on to a Cockney speaking guide once we catch sight of the bright lights of Orpington....

    Either that or stand in a field with flashlights waiting for the sound of a single engined plane.
  • I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    Gove's doing the hysteria.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,956

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    Your party has been in power for over 10 years now. You can't blame subsections of it for the mess we are in. And yes, it is your party, despite your leaving it for a bit. Project Fear is about to become Project Reality. You managed to sell the population your snake oil in 2016 and 2019 but it doesn't stop it being snake oil.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
    Lately I've been finding some very drinkable Puglian and Sicilian wines. White as well as reds. If one hunts about there are some very interesting wines from previously unrecognised countries. There were some very pleasant Thai ones for example. One of these days, too I'm going to find some Indian ones; I hear they can be good, but I've never found any.
    In Sicily nowadays there’s a much better chance that the contents of the bottle bear some relation to what’s on the label, unlike the bad old days.

    Virgin used to stock an Indian wine, but it must be out of stock. Try here:

    https://www.novelwines.co.uk/collections/india?gclid=CjwKCAjw5Kv7BRBSEiwAXGDElX0xWPtBEtrA3TnZdoQboY3QfOq6JTYKOGbDK0QvcL1Yn_LHAUhtOBoCcSUQAvD_BwE

    Urla Vourla from Turkey is also very good, as is the long time classic Chateau Musar from Lebanon.
    Thanks. I've had Turkish wine in Turkey; not seen it here. And of course you are right about Lebanon.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    There are several c-roads that straddle the new EU frontier at Knockholt, that could be exploited by unscrupulous truckers looking to escape the gaze of HM Customs & Excise.

    https://www.streetmap.co.uk/map.srf?x=548500&y=159500&z=120&sv=knockholt&st=3&tl=Map+of+Knockholt,+Kent+[City/Town/Village]&searchp=ids.srf&mapp=map.srf

    There’s a footpath that runs over the hills as well, which I remember from my childhood. Never imagined that one day it might become a smugglers’ trail.
    People like you who know the lie of the land from their youth will command a pretty penny as sherpas in the black economy.
    Yes, we’ll have to take people over at night carrying heavy packs on our back, and pass them on to a Cockney speaking guide once we catch sight of the bright lights of Orpington....

    Either that or stand in a field with flashlights waiting for the sound of a single engined plane.
    Your last sentence sounds like the instructions for dogging but with planes.
  • I see the Welsh First Minister has asked people to use their common sense.... controversial and too confusing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited September 23

    The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

    There will be a lot of paperwork irrespective of the deal or a "no deal".

    This has been inevitable since the decision to withdraw from the single market/customs union - which was solely the UK's decision and solely the UK's responsibility to prepare for.

    Anything about "the EU" is just blame shifting.

    Not if the deal includes a further transition
    A transition only delays the inevitable and at this stage probably difficult to agree. For better or for worse
    massively worse
    Brexit will be done
  • DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
  • DougSeal said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    Your party has been in power for over 10 years now. You can't blame subsections of it for the mess we are in. And yes, it is your party, despite your leaving it for a bit. Project Fear is about to become Project Reality. You managed to sell the population your snake oil in 2016 and 2019 but it doesn't stop it being snake oil.
    I quit the party when May was it's leader. So no "my" party has not been in power for 10 years.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,466
    I knew those forts in the Thames Estuary would come in useful one day.

    Can't we have the border further north, to keep southerners out?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842
    DougSeal said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And this gives us the superior cards?
    Yes.

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.
    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Buy a lorry and Europe is your oyster?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,778

    The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

    Blame game?

    We're the ones that voted to leave.
    Would it be unkind to point out that pretty much half of us didn't.
    The rest were told there would be a deal and it would be easy.
  • I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    More's the pity. I'd settle for an increase in the toll charge across the Thames. Fifty quid should do it.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,696
    edited September 23

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And this gives us the superior cards?
    Yes.

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.
    Oops, my error - it means they buy more from us than we buy from them.

    Sorry.

    Is the "he who pays the piper calls the tunes" principle still valid?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,543
    Dartford crossing should be fun with no deal.
  • So guessestimate positive case number today 5500....higher...lower....nice to see you, see you....
  • The key thing for me is are they going to stick in an "Eastenders" cash and carry for all my duty free needs in Swanley? If so, all my in principle concerns over Brexit evapourate overnight.
  • Alistair said:

    OMFG Matt Lieberman doesn't understand the rules of the jungle Primary he is running in.

    Or he does and he's specifically looking to shit it up for the Dems.

    Think that you are misunderstanding what Lieberman is saying. His point is that that the most likely result is for the Top Two candidates to end up being one Democrat and one Republican.

    Which is likely the case, though Lieberman is NOT likely to make the cut, as he will almost certainly trail fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock in the first round of voting.

    On the other hand, polls show that it IS possible that the Top Two on Nov 3 could end up being two Republicans, namely (appointed) incumbent Kelly Loeffler and her GOP challenger Don Collins.

    But my guess is that the Top Two will be Loeffler and Warnock, with neither achieving 50% thus leading to a runoff on January 5, 2021.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,956

    DougSeal said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still let's not be too negative. OK, the country is already hugely disrupted by Covid-19, but we have around 12 weeks before everything shuts down for Xmas. Plenty of time to write an entire new computer system from scratch, do initial user testing, do the field testing with hauliers, make any changes necessary, train up the thousands of haulage firms in using it, do the same in multiple languages for EU27 hauliers, install the gantries and ANPR systems, train up the enforcement agencies, and do the consultations on the exact regulations. We just need to Believe, don't we?

    What I can’t believe is how little preparation the Tories have done over the past FOUR years when, for very many of them, this is the outcome they have desired and been pushing for? That France, Holland and Ireland are ready and we are not beggars belief.
    To be fair Tories who believed in Brexit have only been in charge just over a year.

    Before then there was Remainer May in charge who didn't want No Deal preparations being done because she would never go to No Deal and wanted her MPs to know it wasn't viable so they'd have to vote for her deal (and thus Barnier knew it too of course).
    Your party has been in power for over 10 years now. You can't blame subsections of it for the mess we are in. And yes, it is your party, despite your leaving it for a bit. Project Fear is about to become Project Reality. You managed to sell the population your snake oil in 2016 and 2019 but it doesn't stop it being snake oil.
    I quit the party when May was it's leader. So no "my" party has not been in power for 10 years.
    Like I said, temporarily leaving the party does not absolve you, and you are a member now, when the worst of this sh*t is going down. You left and then rejoined the Conservative and Unionist Party. It's the same entity and remained the same entity throughout. It didn't magically change its corporate status while you were away and then revert back when you rejoined. Your sh*t - own it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
    Lately I've been finding some very drinkable Puglian and Sicilian wines. White as well as reds. If one hunts about there are some very interesting wines from previously unrecognised countries. There were some very pleasant Thai ones for example. One of these days, too I'm going to find some Indian ones; I hear they can be good, but I've never found any.
    In Sicily nowadays there’s a much better chance that the contents of the bottle bear some relation to what’s on the label, unlike the bad old days.

    Virgin used to stock an Indian wine, but it must be out of stock. Try here:

    https://www.novelwines.co.uk/collections/india?gclid=CjwKCAjw5Kv7BRBSEiwAXGDElX0xWPtBEtrA3TnZdoQboY3QfOq6JTYKOGbDK0QvcL1Yn_LHAUhtOBoCcSUQAvD_BwE

    Urla Vourla from Turkey is also very good, as is the long time classic Chateau Musar from Lebanon.
    Thanks. I've had Turkish wine in Turkey; not seen it here. And of course you are right about Lebanon.
    https://www.virginwines.co.uk/wine/Z37671102803/Urla-Vourla-Z37671102803

    This is up market wine, though. You can still get Cankaya and the like for a few quid from those Turkish Food Stores dotted about North London.

  • Just to calm everyone done.

    Both OGH and I will be starting short holiday breaks in a few days time.

    As you know nothing major happens when one or both of us goes on holiday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,260
    edited September 23

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,498
    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,350
    This Kent border, is it historic Kent or is it current day Kent County Council? Will the Medway Towns be a British exclave?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited September 23
    Pulpstar said:

    Dartford crossing should be fun with no deal.

    It might not make a lot of difference whether it's a Deal or not. The lorries still need to be checked at Dover, Calais and now Dartford.

    Edit. A deal is still very much worth having. But is doesn't fundamentally solve this problem, which is due to leaving the EU, or at least the SM+CU
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,407

    I see the Welsh First Minister has asked people to use their common sense.... controversial and too confusing.

    If Boris had said that Scott would have posted hundreds of tweets
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 50,954
    edited September 23
    According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,778
    Will Kent switch to driving on the right?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,175
    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    The faux outrage is a sight to behold.

    Incidentally, I suspect air freight and couriers will do VERY well out of Brexit. They know how to handle customs and regulations and have huge back office functions to manage it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296

    I knew those forts in the Thames Estuary would come in useful one day.

    Can't we have the border further north, to keep southerners out?

    I would be quite happy with no access to Kent. Going S of the River, particularly after dark isn't recommended.

    (Apart from the consequent difficulties, personally, in visiting one set of grandchildren. And vice versa.)
  • So guessestimate positive case number today 5500....higher...lower....nice to see you, see you....

    Just had an email to say that my lad's school is "closing the Year 10 bubble" after 2 kids tested positive. Not my lad's year, but it's getting closer to home. Never mind - I'll spray him with bleach and lock him in his room with his Xbox when he gets back.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,390
    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    We will do our best, but no promises.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,496

    I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    This is a betting site. Is that an invitation.......
    A border in Kent? As things become more and more stupid and indeed plain bonkers it will be amusing to see Brexiteers tie themselves in knots defending even more insane ways around all the problems they have created by their refusal to see the world as it is not as they wish it to be.

    And still Ireland remains the big unsolvable.

    Johnson will spend his declining years, like Gladstone, trying to puzzle an answer to the Irish question as the joke in the Newstatesman had it.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    Michael Gove is the one setting up policed borders at Kent where lorries won't be admitted unless they have the paperwork. I mean, ask him if you think he's hysterical?

    And no mention so far of what lorries with no paperwork but who are just delivering locally are supposed to do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,296
    tlg86 said:

    This Kent border, is it historic Kent or is it current day Kent County Council? Will the Medway Towns be a British exclave?

    Chatham with it's Dockyard, the place where Harold Wilson was famously silenced.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,241
    edited September 23
    tlg86 said:

    This Kent border, is it historic Kent or is it current day Kent County Council? Will the Medway Towns be a British exclave?

    With Bromley, Bexley, Greenwich and Lewisham as "debatable Land" inhabited by gangs of smugglers, scofflaws and ne'er do wells.
    Plus ca change.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,842

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
    @OnlyLivingBoy can send you some loo roll if you run short.
    Are you mad? I've only got 15 rolls! And I have to drive on the A2 to get to Sainsbury's so I'll be eating out of bins by then anyway.
    Squeaky bum time, indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,543
    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.
This discussion has been closed.