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Biden’s national poll lead remains and the swing state surveys are looking positive – politicalbetti

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,464
    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    Maybe there’ll be a market for forged papers?

    They could be sewn into the seams of clothing and sent across the border.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 3,467
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478
    For those following Tesla, this seems to be the most comprehensive summary of their battery plans:
    https://electrek.co/2020/09/23/tesla-battery-puzzle-innovation/
  • Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    The faux outrage is a sight to behold.

    Incidentally, I suspect air freight and couriers will do VERY well out of Brexit. They know how to handle customs and regulations and have huge back office functions to manage it.
    When you create red tape you immediately create opportunities for middle men who can navigate it. It's one example of how bureaucracy creates deadweight costs for the economy (see also the US tax filing industry). The funny thing is that Tories used to understand this stuff.
  • The disclosures by Gove today are either brave or the start of a provocation with the aim of either achieving a deal of some sort and everyone sighs in relief, or for a full on blame game directed at the EU

    It all seems utterly crazy and with covid dominating most peoples thoughts, it is time HMG came to their senses and did the deal with a further 6 months implementation period

    It certainly has caused uproar and maybe that is Gove's aim, who knows

    What we know for certain is that the governmet will accept no responsibilty whatsoever for a No Deal. However, the polling seems to indicate that the EU may not be the easy target that many had assumed it would be. Since the government decided to play its nuclear option and legislate to abandon the rule of law, while saying it was the EU that forced it into doing so, it has seen its numbers go down. That suggests there is a possibility that most voters will see a failure to get a deal, the decision to tear up the deal previously agreed and the creaiton of an internal border with Kent not as some Churchillian triumph but as yet more rank incompetence.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yep. As @Cyclefree noted based on her family's experience of running a pub.

    As I said the other day the Dutch looked at this early closing idea and backed away from it precisely for this reason.

    To me it just shouts 'look like we are doing something'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,019
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
    Lately I've been finding some very drinkable Puglian and Sicilian wines. White as well as reds. If one hunts about there are some very interesting wines from previously unrecognised countries. There were some very pleasant Thai ones for example. One of these days, too I'm going to find some Indian ones; I hear they can be good, but I've never found any.
    In Sicily nowadays there’s a much better chance that the contents of the bottle bear some relation to what’s on the label, unlike the bad old days.

    Virgin used to stock an Indian wine, but it must be out of stock. Try here:

    https://www.novelwines.co.uk/collections/india?gclid=CjwKCAjw5Kv7BRBSEiwAXGDElX0xWPtBEtrA3TnZdoQboY3QfOq6JTYKOGbDK0QvcL1Yn_LHAUhtOBoCcSUQAvD_BwE

    Urla Vourla from Turkey is also very good, as is the long time classic Chateau Musar from Lebanon.
    Thanks. I've had Turkish wine in Turkey; not seen it here. And of course you are right about Lebanon.
    https://www.virginwines.co.uk/wine/Z37671102803/Urla-Vourla-Z37671102803

    This is up market wine, though. You can still get Cankaya and the like for a few quid from those Turkish Food Stores dotted about North London.

    Rural Essex doesn't have Turkish Food Stores. There's an excellent Turkish restaurant not far away, though.
    And again, many thanks for the tips.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,035

    Alistair said:

    OMFG Matt Lieberman doesn't understand the rules of the jungle Primary he is running in.

    Or he does and he's specifically looking to shit it up for the Dems.

    Think that you are misunderstanding what Lieberman is saying. His point is that that the most likely result is for the Top Two candidates to end up being one Democrat and one Republican.

    Which is likely the case, though Lieberman is NOT likely to make the cut, as he will almost certainly trail fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock in the first round of voting.

    On the other hand, polls show that it IS possible that the Top Two on Nov 3 could end up being two Republicans, namely (appointed) incumbent Kelly Loeffler and her GOP challenger Don Collins.

    But my guess is that the Top Two will be Loeffler and Warnock, with neither achieving 50% thus leading to a runoff on January 5, 2021.
    The polls have the Republicans as the top 2. Lieberman is in 4th. He is shitting this up for Warnock.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,808
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    Maybe there’ll be a market for forged papers?

    They could be sewn into the seams of clothing and sent across the border.
    Or just maybe showing your paperwork will be like showing a passport. Like we do now. Your version does sound more fun though.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 2,840
    edited September 2020

    Alistair said:

    OMFG Matt Lieberman doesn't understand the rules of the jungle Primary he is running in.

    Or he does and he's specifically looking to shit it up for the Dems.

    Think that you are misunderstanding what Lieberman is saying. His point is that that the most likely result is for the Top Two candidates to end up being one Democrat and one Republican.

    Which is likely the case, though Lieberman is NOT likely to make the cut, as he will almost certainly trail fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock in the first round of voting.

    On the other hand, polls show that it IS possible that the Top Two on Nov 3 could end up being two Republicans, namely (appointed) incumbent Kelly Loeffler and her GOP challenger Don Collins.

    But my guess is that the Top Two will be Loeffler and Warnock, with neither achieving 50% thus leading to a runoff on January 5, 2021.
    It's absolute guff from Lieberman designed to keep himself viable.

    It makes big and dubious assumptions.

    Firstly, that there are roughly equal numbers of Ds and Rs in a state that voted 55-41 Republican in 2016. Sure, Democrats hope it's better for them in 2020, and Stacey Abrahams ran it very close (but still lost) in the Governor race. But Georgia tilts (at least) GOP.

    Secondly, even if you assume roughly equal D and R numbers overall, a roughly even split between the top two candidates for each would mean you'll probably end up with the top D and top R in the run-off, but it's by no means certain (depends how "roughly" you mean when you say "roughly").

    Thirdly, it assumes there are two Ds and two Rs likely to get non-trivial votes. However, there are two Rs but THREE Ds - Warnock, himself, and Tarver (in that order) all poll non-trivial votes (there are others but much smaller). A three-way split versus two-way for Republicans means all three Democrats may well miss out.

    In reality, he's probably at the stage now where he's not going to be the leading Democrat and should drop out to ensure there is a Democrat rather than creating a major risk of there being none.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 8,404


    "Registered voters in Florida split almost precisely evenly for the president, 47%-48%, Trump versus Biden, while it's 51%-47% among those most likely to vote. In Arizona, the presidential race stands at 47%-49% among registered voters and 49%-48% among likely voters. None of these differences is statistically significant."

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trust-economy-bolsters-trump-close-florida-arizona-poll/story?id=73167150
  • According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.

    Does it say what they tested positive for?
  • IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
    @OnlyLivingBoy can send you some loo roll if you run short.
    Are you mad? I've only got 15 rolls! And I have to drive on the A2 to get to Sainsbury's so I'll be eating out of bins by then anyway.
    Squeaky bum time, indeed.
    I see this is the "worst case scenario".

    So the one that this shambolic clown fest will be directing to as fast as their fat little legs can carry them then...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,938
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Yes. They don't just forget why, they tend to forget that they ever did.
  • Pub either side of the EU frontier on the River Grom at Groombridge.

    Smuggler's paradise this place.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groombridge

  • Asda conference - as a business they do not have a no deal Brexit plan. Uncertainty on Rona restrictions and the sizable disruption that creates combined with the ongoing uncertainty on requirements means they cannot plan in any detail. "Please be flexible and work with us as best you can".

    Don't worry though. The Supermarkets will ensure you all get fed and if there are any shortages its definitely all their fault and not the government's.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Is that some sort of euphemism?
  • Andy_JS said:



    "Registered voters in Florida split almost precisely evenly for the president, 47%-48%, Trump versus Biden, while it's 51%-47% among those most likely to vote. In Arizona, the presidential race stands at 47%-49% among registered voters and 49%-48% among likely voters. None of these differences is statistically significant."

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trust-economy-bolsters-trump-close-florida-arizona-poll/story?id=73167150
    There's no doubt it's a very good poll for Trump, but we need for evidence to see if it is an outlier or evidence of a trend.
  • I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,926
    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yes, I thought that. At 10pm you'll bat on, but at eleven you're happy to go home. (admittedly I don't know this Karen, but I presume she was a notional person)
  • What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,774
    edited September 2020
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/12745871/boris-johnson-lockdown-rules-coronavirus-tory-rebellion/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=sunpoliticstwitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1600871926

    The latest report on the 30 September vote from the Sun suggests the rebels have the numbers to defeat the government via labour support.

    Can;t be true, can it? labour support?
  • Andy_JS said:



    "Registered voters in Florida split almost precisely evenly for the president, 47%-48%, Trump versus Biden, while it's 51%-47% among those most likely to vote. In Arizona, the presidential race stands at 47%-49% among registered voters and 49%-48% among likely voters. None of these differences is statistically significant."

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trust-economy-bolsters-trump-close-florida-arizona-poll/story?id=73167150
    Hey, I said that earlier....but bloody Nate Silver says it and everyone sits up and takes notice! Hmph. {Stomps off.}
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,019

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    Formula One, with it's technical place at Biggin Hill, will LOVE this!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,808
    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yes, I thought that. At 10pm you'll bat on, but at eleven you're happy to go home. (admittedly I don't know this Karen, but I presume she was a notional person)
    I assumed it was a reference to Macbeth
    Macduff. What three things does drink especially provoke?

    Porter. Marry, sir, nose-painting, sleep, and
    urine. Lechery, sir, it provokes, and unprovokes;
    it provokes the desire, but it takes
    away the performance: therefore, much drink
    may be said to be an equivocator with lechery:
    it makes him, and it mars him; it sets
    him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him,
    and disheartens him; makes him stand to, and
    not stand to; in conclusion, equivocates him
    in a sleep, and, giving him the lie, leaves him.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,128

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    What about lorries making deliveries to Kent?
  • I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,128
    edited September 2020

    Pub either side of the EU frontier on the River Grom at Groombridge.

    Smuggler's paradise this place.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groombridge

    Wasn't there a senior IRA man who owned a farm that straddled the Irish border and exploited that for for various shenanigans?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,035
    State betting odds are still disconnected from presidential winner odds.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,808

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    Formula One, with it's technical place at Biggin Hill, will LOVE this!
    Yes indeed. I mean none of the F1 teams have the first idea about how to cope with getting large amounts of equipment into pretty much any country in the world at short notice do they? Not a clue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
  • Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    The faux outrage is a sight to behold.

    Incidentally, I suspect air freight and couriers will do VERY well out of Brexit. They know how to handle customs and regulations and have huge back office functions to manage it.
    When you create red tape you immediately create opportunities for middle men who can navigate it. It's one example of how bureaucracy creates deadweight costs for the economy (see also the US tax filing industry). The funny thing is that Tories used to understand this stuff.
    They did say "we'll hold all the cards". Maybe they meant the ones to show at the Kent checkpoints.
  • Alistair said:

    OMFG Matt Lieberman doesn't understand the rules of the jungle Primary he is running in.

    Or he does and he's specifically looking to shit it up for the Dems.

    Think that you are misunderstanding what Lieberman is saying. His point is that that the most likely result is for the Top Two candidates to end up being one Democrat and one Republican.

    Which is likely the case, though Lieberman is NOT likely to make the cut, as he will almost certainly trail fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock in the first round of voting.

    On the other hand, polls show that it IS possible that the Top Two on Nov 3 could end up being two Republicans, namely (appointed) incumbent Kelly Loeffler and her GOP challenger Don Collins.

    But my guess is that the Top Two will be Loeffler and Warnock, with neither achieving 50% thus leading to a runoff on January 5, 2021.
    It's absolute guff from Lieberman designed to keep himself viable.

    It makes big and dubious assumptions.

    Firstly, that there are roughly equal numbers of Ds and Rs in a state that voted 55-41 Republican in 2016. Sure, Democrats hope it's better for them in 2020, and Stacey Abrahams ran it very close (but still lost) in the Governor race. But Georgia tilts (at least) GOP.

    Secondly, even if you assume roughly equal D and R numbers overall, a roughly even split between the top two candidates for each would mean you'll probably end up with the top D and top R in the run-off, but it's by no means certain (depends how "roughly" you mean when you say "roughly").

    Thirdly, it assumes there are two Ds and two Rs likely to get non-trivial votes. However, there are two Rs but THREE Ds - Warnock, himself, and Tarver (in that order) all poll non-trivial votes (there are others but much smaller). A three-way split versus two-way for Republicans means all three Democrats may well miss out.

    In reality, he's probably at the stage now where he's not going to be the leading Democrat and should drop out to ensure there is a Democrat rather than creating a major risk of there being none.
    Yes, think you are correct. Lieberman is trying to argue that voting for him will NOT result in two Republicans making the Top Two on Nov 3 for the January runoff.

    Lieberman is indeed a spoiler. IF he's NOT a GOP plot, he should drop out NOW.

    BTW, in August 2016 here in WA State we had a host of candidates running statewide for State Treasurer, including 5 credible Democrats and 2 Republicans. Result was that the crowd of Dems managed to chop up the Democratic vote so that the Top Two who advanced to the general election ballot were the two GOPers.

    Leaving Democrats to either skip the race OR vote for the least objectionable Republican. In state that Clinton won handily.
  • rpjs said:

    Pub either side of the EU frontier on the River Grom at Groombridge.

    Smuggler's paradise this place.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groombridge

    Wasn't there a senior IRA man who owned a farm that straddled the Irish border and exploited that for for various shenanigans?
    Fuel smuggling was a big earner, via a pipeline that strandled the border.
  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1308781815042371584?s=20

    No option for both?
  • HYUFD said:
    Ha, I initially read that as 72% of the public would blame Conservative voters!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,019
    DavidL said:

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    Formula One, with it's technical place at Biggin Hill, will LOVE this!
    Yes indeed. I mean none of the F1 teams have the first idea about how to cope with getting large amounts of equipment into pretty much any country in the world at short notice do they? Not a clue.
    Son-in-law used to be the guy at Biggin Hill that did it. Often meant late nights.
  • According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.

    Is sounds like the virus is running rampant through football teams, but they only know about it after getting tested.
  • An election broadcast from the Rishi Sunak Party.

  • Here is the problem. Even the smoothest of border checks will create vast tailbacks of vehicles. Someone has the detail wrong on one of the products on one of their 35 pallets and they could create an even vaster tailback. Hence the need for the Kent Access Permit. The idea being that the rozzers can check any vehicle before it creates mayhem at the port and thus reduce the tailback only to the Old Kent Road.

    How do the bizzies know the difference between a truck heading for the port and one thats not unless they stop it to check...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,808

    DavidL said:

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    Formula One, with it's technical place at Biggin Hill, will LOVE this!
    Yes indeed. I mean none of the F1 teams have the first idea about how to cope with getting large amounts of equipment into pretty much any country in the world at short notice do they? Not a clue.
    Son-in-law used to be the guy at Biggin Hill that did it. Often meant late nights.
    Indeed. When you see the covid equivalent of the grid walk these days up and down the teams accommodation the logistics of it are every bit as remarkable as the actual races and probably just a tad less predictable. Getting that lot from Italy to Russia inside 2 weeks is a pretty incredible achievement. I don't think that they will be worrying about a new form or two.
  • 6178 new positive cases....to infinity and beyond.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 24,088
    edited September 2020
    6.2k new cases, this is getting dicey. That 50k figure doesn't look as unrealistic...
  • HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    Funny thing, free movement. I am by no means convinced voters and politicians have the same understanding of the concept. A government that increases non-EU immigration while making it difficult to take holidays (even after vaccination) might have done what it said on the tin but not what was expected or desired.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,556
    edited September 2020
    MaxPB said:

    6.2k new cases, this is getting dicey. That 50k figure doesn't look as unrealistic...

    I presume that Witty / Valance have access to a lot more granular data, the historical data from the first wave and they are obviously using Plantair / Faculty services.

    Its possible they just pulled it out their arse, but the speed of the reaction over the past few days suggests something has set off the alarm bells.
  • MaxPB said:

    6.2k new cases, this is getting dicey. That 50k figure doesn't look as unrealistic...

    France and Spain are probably both well past 50k cases already, but they aren't testing enough to reveal it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,774
    I see the British government is lecturing Iran on human rights again./

    As it......er.......curfews restaurants, severely restricts rights of assembly and calls the troops in to help out on the streets. All by decree. And demands more decree powers for months.

    But that's different.

  • HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,926
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yes, I thought that. At 10pm you'll bat on, but at eleven you're happy to go home. (admittedly I don't know this Karen, but I presume she was a notional person)
    I assumed it was a reference to Macbeth
    Macduff. What three things does drink especially provoke?

    Porter. Marry, sir, nose-painting, sleep, and
    urine. Lechery, sir, it provokes, and unprovokes;
    it provokes the desire, but it takes
    away the performance: therefore, much drink
    may be said to be an equivocator with lechery:
    it makes him, and it mars him; it sets
    him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him,
    and disheartens him; makes him stand to, and
    not stand to; in conclusion, equivocates him
    in a sleep, and, giving him the lie, leaves him.
    Nice that you've nailed that down so conclusively.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,128
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    This Kent border, is it historic Kent or is it current day Kent County Council? Will the Medway Towns be a British exclave?

    With Bromley, Bexley, Greenwich and Lewisham as "debatable Land" inhabited by gangs of smugglers, scofflaws and ne'er do wells.
    Plus ca change.
    I recall when I lived in sunny Medway that there was a guard on Connex Southeastern as was that would often announce arrival into Sittingbourne as "We are now arriving at Sittingbourne International. Please change here for international services to the isle of Sheppey. Please have your passports and visas ready."
  • HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    That's an accurate statement, Hyufd, but I suspect it is made more in hope than expectation! In the absence of anything more substantial, I guess it will have to do.

    Personally I hope the polls continue in this vein. I'm quietly building up a very nice book as the odds oscillate in response to their fluctuations. :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478
    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    Formula One, with it's technical place at Biggin Hill, will LOVE this!
    Yes indeed. I mean none of the F1 teams have the first idea about how to cope with getting large amounts of equipment into pretty much any country in the world at short notice do they? Not a clue.
    Son-in-law used to be the guy at Biggin Hill that did it. Often meant late nights.
    Indeed. When you see the covid equivalent of the grid walk these days up and down the teams accommodation the logistics of it are every bit as remarkable as the actual races and probably just a tad less predictable. Getting that lot from Italy to Russia inside 2 weeks is a pretty incredible achievement. I don't think that they will be worrying about a new form or two.
    S-i-L doesn't work there any more. Son does, and they're doing a lot of the techie stuff remotely. Some hardware still has to go, of course, but a lot of it goes already set up.
  • An election broadcast from the Rishi Sunak Party.



    He couldn't make his ambition any clearer could he? And he knows he is unsackable. At some point, though, he will no longer be handing out money. But that looks like it will take longer than previously thought!

  • 6,178!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602
    edited September 2020

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
  • So how long do we give it until Boris has to implement no household mixing?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,855
    edited September 2020

    According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.

    Is sounds like the virus is running rampant through football teams, but they only know about it after getting tested.
    The problem isn't the young fit footballers.

    It's if the young fit footballer visits granny.

    I'm also confused about why this costs £16k/week,

    Let's assume there are 30 people at Leyton Orient. And they are tested four times a week.

    That's 120 tests.

    For this to cost £16k/week would require the tests to cost close to £150 each.

    CVS will do you a (presumably profitable) test for $20 (c £15) in the US. That's a 10x difference.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 24,088

    So how long do we give it until Boris has to implement no household mixing?

    Monday evening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,602

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    Funny thing, free movement. I am by no means convinced voters and politicians have the same understanding of the concept. A government that increases non-EU immigration while making it difficult to take holidays (even after vaccination) might have done what it said on the tin but not what was expected or desired.
    The government is simply applying the same points system to EU immigrants as to non EU immigrants when the implementation period ends and that was exactly what the Tories 2019 manifesto promised to do
  • rcs1000 said:

    According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.

    Is sounds like the virus is running rampant through football teams, but they only know about it after getting tested.
    The problem isn't the young fit footballers.

    It's if the young fit footballer visits granny.

    I'm also confused about why this costs £16k/week,

    Let's assume there are 30 people at Leyton Orient. And they are tested four times a week.

    That's 120 tests.

    For this to cost £16k/week would require the tests to cost close to £150 each.

    CVS will do you a (presumably profitable) test for $20 (c £15) in the US. That's a 10x difference.
    From The Athletic.

    The sums involved have varied from club to club but the cost of one test has ranged from £100 to £150. Even with a skeleton squad and coaching staff of 30 individuals tested, as clubs in the League One and League Two play-offs attempted in June and July, that is an outlay in the region of at least £3,000 per round of testing.

    The reality, though, is that the figures involved are much higher. The size of squads in the Championship, plus the support staff they rely upon, mean upwards of 80 people would need to be tested twice a week. That comes in at least £16,000 every seven days.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 3,467
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    He who pays the piper calls the tunes. We are the customer, we can take our business elsewhere if need be.

    No we can't. We can't simply change our supply chains overnight. Take veg. The UK imports about 85% of vegetables from the EU. The Netherlands provide the bulk of tomatoes and onions while Spain sources most of the cauliflower and celery, the two fastest-growing commodities. Lots of this stuff is unsuited for long supply chains - it is either logistically impossible or just impossible. You can't freeze lettuce. Spanish lettuce growers can look for a new market in Europe. We cannot get salad lettuce from anywhere else unless we fly it in at terrific expense, and veg takes a while to grow domestically, so there will be supermarket shortages. (And before you get on Google, yes I know that you can use frozen lettuce for cooking, but its no good for much else, fresh lettuce is quite a popular thing)

    Lettuce is just one example. You are still parroting on a version of the "German car makers will save us" line. It hasn't worked. It isn't working. We are not "calling the tune".
    Negotiations are not an adversarial process and, if they were, we are losing.

    In a way I don't actually mind. I have always said that the best way to immunise ourselves from this insanity is to suffer the consequences. And I'm not talking about Covid. I'm just pissed off that by living in East Kent I won't even be able to drive anywhere.
    Don't waste your time. He's following the Tinkerbell Strategem. If you say "I believe in Faries Brexit sincerely enough then Tinkers comes down and magics away all of the problems.

    A few of you seem utterly bowled over about this Kent Access Permit bullshit - I have posted on this one before. The DRIVER is personally liable for being in possession of the correct paperwork when entering Kent. Both the paperwork (or waiver) and the KAP will be generated via the GVMS platform which doesn't exist yet. Even if it miraculously comes to life in the next few weeks and miraculously passes crash testing with zero flaws in the weeks after that doesn't leave anything like sufficient time for the industry to integrate it into their systems. Indeed as an exporter now we have very little visibility of what will need to be completed never mind on what platform.

    Unless Shagger agrees to be pegged by Barnier we, the UK, are Fucked. Never mind "he who pays the piper" and "we are the customer". Yes. a customer who will very quickly be unable to buy stuff.

    Fucked. Utterly utterly fucked. I hope HYUFD will now tell us how this is all beneficial to Tory interests as Red Wall Tories will reward them for the partition of Kent and empty supermarkets.
    Kent is not Red Wall, all its seats bar Canterbury were Tory in both 2017 and 2019. Red Wall seats were Labour in 2017, only Tory in 2019.

    The Red Wall voted Tory to end free movement and regain control of our fishing waters and get state aid for their industries, unless Barnier compromises on the latter that means No Deal.

    Plus No Deal does not mean an end to all EU imports, it just means tariffs and a bit more regulation plus more demand for UK farmers goods domestically which would be relatively cheaper and more consumers buying goods from outside the EU
    I think you miss the point. The "Red Wall" seats and Canterbury (my home city) show that no party has a right to a seat. Those in the "Red Wall" seats may completely forget why they voted Tory when they find empty veg isles in their supermarkets. Those in Kent seats may well look out of their windows and see massive traffic jams and car parks (as is already happening in Willsborough, Sevington and Mersham) and forget why they voted for Brexit (the latter is happening already if the local rag is anything to go by). Voters have short memories.
    Well fine, if they want to look to an EEA style deal with the EU and vote for Starmer and Davey in 2024 that is up to them, until then the Tories will deliver what they promised ie an end to free movement and regaining control of our fishing waters etc
    You also promised in your manifesto that 80 per cent of UK trade would be covered by free trade agreements by the end of 2022, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. That promise was disingenuous at best.

    The only way to get to 80% of our trade being covered by FTAs is through an FTA with the EU. Because if we don't, then even if we sign FTA's with the rest of the planet then we only have 55-60% of our trade covered - the missing 40-45% being with the EU - unless we more than halve the trade we have with the EU. That sort of massive realignment cannot happen in three years without wholesale disruption that loses votes.

    Anyway, we're nearly a third of the way through the three year period and, of the listed countries, only Japan is in the bag, 2% of our trade. Only 78% to go and you are trashing more than half of that.

    Some would say that governing should be about the preserving the peace and welfare of the governed - not about cherry picking promises from manifestos in order to make culture war points.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 3,467

    rpjs said:

    Pub either side of the EU frontier on the River Grom at Groombridge.

    Smuggler's paradise this place.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groombridge

    Wasn't there a senior IRA man who owned a farm that straddled the Irish border and exploited that for for various shenanigans?
    Fuel smuggling was a big earner, via a pipeline that strandled the border.
    Thomas "Slab" Murphy.
  • View from the fish and chip shop. Mask-wearing by customers is around 80 per cent, though not all use them correctly.

    The staff were unaware the rules change tomorrow, probably on account of working 12 hours a day rather than watching telly. Tbh, I, who am well-informed, had to spend some time on gov.uk to see where takeaways fit in.

    HMG's messed up again, both the announcement and also the measures. It is asking for trouble to have, say, kebab shops turning away pissed-up men at 10pm when the pubs close, while visibly continuing to serve customers on Deliveroo scooters.
  • So how long do we give it until Boris has to implement no household mixing?

    October, which is next week.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 3,467
    Nigelb said:

    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.
  • This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,478

    6178 new positive cases....to infinity and beyond.

    That's an awful lot of false positives.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 3,467
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    Trafalgar has Biden up by 3 in PA this time round.
  • rcs1000 said:

    According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.

    Is sounds like the virus is running rampant through football teams, but they only know about it after getting tested.
    The problem isn't the young fit footballers.

    It's if the young fit footballer visits granny.

    I'm also confused about why this costs £16k/week,

    Let's assume there are 30 people at Leyton Orient. And they are tested four times a week.

    That's 120 tests.

    For this to cost £16k/week would require the tests to cost close to £150 each.

    CVS will do you a (presumably profitable) test for $20 (c £15) in the US. That's a 10x difference.
    It isn't 30 people. It can easily be 50. And the private test the clubs are using does cost £100-150.

    A championship club spent £120k in 8 weeks coming out of lockdown.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,926

    6,178!

    Could be worse. 6,179 for example.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368

    6,178!

    For using the reporting day number rather than the specimen date number, you win pineapple pizza for life.
  • Scott_xP said:
    It's easy to get in.

    Just get a boat and head into the channel. Border Force will pick you up every time.
  • eekeek Posts: 10,258

    An election broadcast from the Rishi Sunak Party.



    He couldn't make his ambition any clearer could he? And he knows he is unsackable. At some point, though, he will no longer be handing out money. But that looks like it will take longer than previously thought!

    By the time the money taps have been cut off he will be sat in No 10 rather than No 11.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    I'm going over to Susan's house.
  • 6,178!

    For using the reporting day number rather than the specimen date number, you win pineapple pizza for life.
    Hey, I was waiting for your charts and tables, the last three days are the figures to watch right?
  • FF43 said:

    Brexit will be done

    In Kent as it is in Ulster
    You're getting more witty with age.

    Bravo.
  • For comparison, NFL private testing costs $125 per test and have estimated they will spend $75 million on testing this season.
  • I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    Gove's doing the hysteria.
    To be fair, it's his job (and the job of any responsible Government) to prepare for the worst case.
  • This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,426
    Up up and away !
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,774
    Deaths are exploding on the continent, considering their cases numbers since early August.

    Yesterday?

    France....er......76......
  • I see the usual daily hysteria about Brexit has started.

    There's not going to be a border into Kent.

    Gove's doing the hysteria.
    To be fair, it's his job (and the job of any responsible Government) to prepare for the worst case.
    Worst case? It's Project Fear.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368

    MaxPB said:

    6.2k new cases, this is getting dicey. That 50k figure doesn't look as unrealistic...

    I presume that Witty / Valance have access to a lot more granular data, the historical data from the first wave and they are obviously using Plantair / Faculty services.

    Its possible they just pulled it out their arse, but the speed of the reaction over the past few days suggests something has set off the alarm bells.
    The following is from the ONS infection survey - turning their cases per 10k back into numbers per day -

    image

    This is scientific research.

    The day by day numbers are probably available to SAGE - ONS simple does a summation and averaging at the end of each week.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,855
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,426

    6,178!

    For using the reporting day number rather than the specimen date number, you win pineapple pizza for life.
    Isn't the actual number likely to be worse in a time of increase since we can't see all the future backdated numbers hitting us yet ?
  • What about the M25?

    Will a lorry going from Essex to Crawley via the QE bridge, M25 and M23 require a Kent pass?

    The Home Counties' answer to the DMZ.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,938

    Spending the weekend before last and the Monday and Tuesday on a wholly spurious and confected row with Brussels (remember that?) looks borderline sociopathic in hindsight.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Thinking about the pubs, 10 pm strikes me as the sweet spot for taking the party back to Karen's house.

    Yep. As @Cyclefree noted based on her family's experience of running a pub.

    As I said the other day the Dutch looked at this early closing idea and backed away from it precisely for this reason.

    To me it just shouts 'look like we are doing something'.
    The Government are trying to scream blue murder at the public in the hope this changes behaviour so no further official tightening is necessary.

    Trouble is that even if it's 90% effective it probably won't be enough as just a small handful of superspreaders can transmit it to hundreds in days.
  • rcs1000 said:

    According to the Athletic, 15 leyton orient players tested positive and there is now no regular testing outside of the EPL, because it costs £16k a week to test a team and support staff.

    Is sounds like the virus is running rampant through football teams, but they only know about it after getting tested.
    The problem isn't the young fit footballers.

    It's if the young fit footballer visits granny.

    I'm also confused about why this costs £16k/week,

    Let's assume there are 30 people at Leyton Orient. And they are tested four times a week.

    That's 120 tests.

    For this to cost £16k/week would require the tests to cost close to £150 each.

    CVS will do you a (presumably profitable) test for $20 (c £15) in the US. That's a 10x difference.
    From The Athletic.

    The sums involved have varied from club to club but the cost of one test has ranged from £100 to £150. Even with a skeleton squad and coaching staff of 30 individuals tested, as clubs in the League One and League Two play-offs attempted in June and July, that is an outlay in the region of at least £3,000 per round of testing.

    The reality, though, is that the figures involved are much higher. The size of squads in the Championship, plus the support staff they rely upon, mean upwards of 80 people would need to be tested twice a week. That comes in at least £16,000 every seven days.
    I think the medical profession must charge a "football premium".
    A former work colleague of mine had been into a (private) hospital to have knee surgery.
    He remarked on the surgeon's rather expensive car.
    "Why does the custom plate say "ACL" - those aren't your initials."
    "I do work for XYZ FC. Anterior Cruciate Ligament operations paid for it".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 34,808

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,091
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Lordy, you go away for a couple of hours work and we lose Kent! Don't people find this constant hysteria exhausting?

    At the risk of being boring lorries that want to board a ferry or the Eurotunnel will need the correct paperwork to enter the SM. There is absolutely no point in sneaking into Kent because you won't get into France. So everyone will want to make sure that their paperwork is done and cleared before they get there. Regular travellers will no doubt have electronic passes like users of the Dartford tunnel do now. The more occasional traveller will have to complete the relevant forms and everyone will need forms for their particular load.

    If we don't get a deal the relevant tariffs will have to be paid for the load. If we do there probably won't be any tariffs. The fact we don't know whether we will have a deal or not is obviously causing some uncertainty about this. That is indeed regrettable but, well.

    I'm going away again now. Please try not to lose another county before I get back.

    Maybe there’ll be a market for forged papers?

    They could be sewn into the seams of clothing and sent across the border.
    And this time Donald Pleasance would go to Castle Barnard for an eye test.
  • eek said:

    An election broadcast from the Rishi Sunak Party.



    He couldn't make his ambition any clearer could he? And he knows he is unsackable. At some point, though, he will no longer be handing out money. But that looks like it will take longer than previously thought!

    By the time the money taps have been cut off he will be sat in No 10 rather than No 11.
    That gets him into No 10, but he'll still be awfully unpopular then.

    Somehow, Rishi needs to put clear blue water between him and Johnson. A totally principled, not at all confected resignation ought to do the trick.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 10,368
    Pulpstar said:

    6,178!

    For using the reporting day number rather than the specimen date number, you win pineapple pizza for life.
    Isn't the actual number likely to be worse in a time of increase since we can't see all the future backdated numbers hitting us yet ?
    Using reporting date just adds another layer of inaccuracy on top of other reporting issues. If you have specimen date data, use it.
This discussion has been closed.