Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Biden’s national poll lead remains and the swing state surveys are looking positive – politicalbetti

1567810

Comments

  • Never let a grievance go to waste......



    Do you think, it might just be possible, that Sunak will address this tomorrow?
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there...
    And you know this how ?

    The published data is available with an age breakdown. The numbers of children testing positive is miniscule. The rise has come primarily from young adults.
  • Is it just me, or could revelation of the continued existence of the Nixon Sandwich blow the 2020 presidential campaign wide op.

    Preserved quasi-cryogenically for six decades, some pundits contend that the Sandwich could reveal still unknown facets of the live and times of America's 37th president.

    In particular, authorities disagree whether Nixon had an over-bite, or an under-bite, which is nearly as controversial as the debate over what happened to those missing 18 1/2 minutes from the White House tapes.

    Look for the current president to soon issue a barrage of tweets re: the Nixon Sandwich. Which could (yet again?) change the course of US and world history?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,746

    Bloomberg saying planned UK budget this autumn is cancelled.

    Because many tory MPs would not vote for it???

    The numbers are so bad that Rishi doesn't want to read them out.
    LOL

    By the spring, if they give Johnson another six months.....well.....
  • Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Precisely. It may hit schools but the numbers are miniscule so far there.

    It's Freshers Flu I bet. Students have moved into accomodation and this happens every damn year. Not their fault, but I bet it's what is behind the bulk of it.

    It matches the figures saying young adults, not children, are behind the spike. The Government would be well advised to tell students who are living on campus to stay on campus until the end of term and to try not to go home for weekends.
    Only 1st year students tend to live in student accommodation. Otherwise they live amongst the community. In Jesmond or Heaton in Newcastle, in Edgebaston or Selly Oak in Birmingham, in Fallowfield or Withington in Manchester. Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about.
    There is no community in many of those areas. Just student lets. Essentially a terraced hall of residence.
    Precisely. And many will have moved into those lets a good few weeks ago now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,016

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    A bit early for students to have caught the virus, developed the disease and been tested, isn't it? When did they go back? I thought it was last week or even this.
    This week OR next week.
    I think Scotland students went back 2 weeks ago
    Yea, I was specifically referencing Scottish figures not the UK wide figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,431
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    6,178!

    Maybe the Scottish figures are not so out of line after all. Which just might be good news for the schools.

    Locally it is the return of students that is being blamed. A Freshers party at St Andrews seems to have caused a fairly significant outbreak, Glasgow University is bad and Abertay here in Dundee has cases in the student population as well.
    My wife has crunched the numbers and it looks like this week's surge is being driven by very specifically 18 and 19 year olds.
    It isn't schools.

    It isn't households mingling.

    It is Freshers Flu.
    First confirmed case in my wife's primary school today.
    Youngest tells me his is the only high school in the county without a positive.
    Not sure of the veracity, but that schools are playing no part seems a bold conclusion.
    The number of tests conducted is minimal.
    And there are plenty of kids off sick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572
    Biden retakes the lead in new Rasmussen national poll but at 1% his lead is still less than Hillary's 2% 2016 popular vote lead

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 31,401
    UK hospitality sector labels new rules 'devastating'
  • Does the granular data from Malmesbury not say something quite positive about chunks of the north?

    Why would anyone think that we can reopen universities and not see bumps in the numbers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572
    So when I go from Essex to Kent to see my parents and partners parents will we need to take passports?
  • So many polls out today that it's hard to keep up with them. The one that caught my eye was Monmouth putting Biden within 2 points in Georgia. This suggests other recent polls indicating a close race in the State are on the money.

    The earlier ABC polls for Arizona and Florida which were so good for Trump are already starting to look a long while ago.
  • IanB2 said:

    UK hospitality sector labels new rules 'devastating'

    Government can't win. This morning, experts say new rules no strict enough. If they had not changed hospitality sector rules at all, experts would label failure to act devastating.
  • Nigelb said:

    NY POST - MAN HAS KEPT NIXON'S HALF-EATEN SANDWICH FOR 60 YEARS

    Steve Jenne, from the small town of Sullivan [Illinois], was a 14-year-old Boy Scout when the then-vice president made a campaign stop to Jenne’s hometown on Sept. 22, 1960.

    Ahead of a speech at Wyman Park, Nixon was served a barbecue buffalo sandwich on a paper plate during a cookout and when he was finished, Jenne snatched up the leftovers.

    “He took a couple of bites and commented on how tasty, how good it was,” Jenne, whose Boy Scout troop was asked to serve as an honor guard for Nixon during the cookout, told the [Decatur, IL] Herald & Review.

    “Once he left, I just looked down at the picnic table and everybody else was gone and that half-eaten sandwich was still on the paper plate,” Jenne recalled.

    “I looked around and thought, ‘If no one else was going to take it, I am going to take it,’” he told the news outlet.

    With Nixon’s half-eaten sandwich in tow, Jenne hopped on his bicycle and sped home to show his mom his unique souvenir.

    “I ran in the door and I said, ‘Mom, I got the sandwich that Nixon took a couple bites out of,’ and she was surprised and said, ‘So, what do you want me to do with it?’ So I said, ‘Freeze it,’” Jenne explained.

    Jenne’s mother, “in her infinite wisdom,” then wrapped up the sandwich in a plastic bag, put it inside a Musselman’s apple sauce jar and “stuck it in the freezer,” he said.

    “And that’s the way it still is today,” said Jenne, who now lives in Springfield.

    Ever since, Jenne has kept the Nixon-eaten sandwich frozen — and it once earned him a guest appearance on an episode of the “Tonight Show” with television legend Johnny Carson in 1988.

    Jenne even published a book this year called “The Sandwich That Changed My Life!” about the wacky story.

    “As long as I am living, that sandwich will be stored in my freezer in a container that is labeled, ‘Save, don’t throw away,’ ” Jenne said.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/22/man-has-kept-richard-nixons-half-eaten-sandwich-for-60-years/

    Do we know what happened to the Milliband butty ?
    Of far greater historical significance.
    Look, buddy, nobody cares what some pasty-face Limey pinko twit stuff down his pie hole. Nixon may have been a crook, conspirator and con (in more ways than one) artist, but he was a world leader of historic stature.

    AND at least HE had the decency to eat a decent made-in-the-Heartland American sandwich! NOT some god-awful Brit abomination!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572
    Scott_xP said:
    On current polls Starmer could become PM but only with the support of SNP MPs, assuming the SNP win a majority at Holyrood next year and Starmer becomes PM in 2024 and then grants them indyref2 and it is a Yes, Starmer could then lose power to the Tories without another general election then
  • I expect labour will be wiped out in Holyrood 21 as they surrender the union vote to the conservatives

    I do not disagree with his position but politically naive and unnecessary
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see the latest batch of polls up on RCP are calming for those of us alarmed by the ABC polls for Arizona and Florida. This continues a long-running pattern of occasional goodies for Trump followed by a return to the normality of a steady Biden lead.

    The monotony should end with the first debate, one would end, due on the 29th I think.

    Of course the RCP poll average had Hillary winning the EC in 2016, it was the occasional poll goodies for Trump that were right
    Except there were more goodies for trump than he is getting currently, and that's with most pollsters missing key areas of trump supporters.
    At the moment trump needs for the polls to be wrong again and by the same if not bigger margins. They might well be the case, but 2018 was good for most pollsters in the trump era, so will be interesting to see if they have corrected themselves.
    Not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin in 2016 the entire campaign and only 1 pollster, Trafalgar, had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won all 3 states.

    It is true that Trump was doing better in the South and Arizona than he is now on average but if the ABC poll putting him back in front in Florida and Arizona is correct and followed by other pollsters then this election is looking more and more like 2016
    There is one enormous difference between now and 2016: the national poll picture.

    On September 23rd 2016, Ms Clinton was averaging 42.5% in the 538 poll of polls.

    On September 23rd 2018, Mr Biden is eight points ahead of that at 50.5%.
    The key question for me is this. If we cannot rely on the state polls (they may err in favour of Trump, or in favour of Biden, or a mix from vendor to vendor) then what is the maximum national poll deficit that Trump can concede and still have a shot at winning the Electoral College?
    I don't understand how Trump is even in contention in the marginals considering how far behind he is in the national polls.
    Nate Silver published an analysis showing that once Biden is more than 5% ahead nationally, he is all but certain to win the Electoral College
  • isamisam Posts: 34,839
    edited September 2020
    Boris would have been the man who lost the Union, but I think people who would criticise him for it will have a different take on Keir losing it.

    "A noble democrat to his very core... so much so that, despite being extremely patriotic (unlike Corbyn), he is prepared to break up the country"
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,155
    Nigelb said:
    Well the American experiment with democracy was nice while it lasted :o
  • Nigelb said:
    What is scarier is that it has happened before. 1876.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,016

    So many polls out today that it's hard to keep up with them. The one that caught my eye was Monmouth putting Biden within 2 points in Georgia. This suggests other recent polls indicating a close race in the State are on the money.

    The earlier ABC polls for Arizona and Florida which were so good for Trump are already starting to look a long while ago.

    HS or less turnout in Florida in 2016: 18%
    HS or less turnout in Florida in 2018: 20%
    ABC poll HS or less weighting: 34%
  • Is it just me, or could revelation of the continued existence of the Nixon Sandwich blow the 2020 presidential campaign wide op.

    Preserved quasi-cryogenically for six decades, some pundits contend that the Sandwich could reveal still unknown facets of the live and times of America's 37th president.

    In particular, authorities disagree whether Nixon had an over-bite, or an under-bite, which is nearly as controversial as the debate over what happened to those missing 18 1/2 minutes from the White House tapes.

    Look for the current president to soon issue a barrage of tweets re: the Nixon Sandwich. Which could (yet again?) change the course of US and world history?

    Maybe they could use any Nixon DNA contained therein to recreate him like in Jurassic Park. Tricky Dicky may have been a crook, but at least he knew what he was doing. #Nixon2020.
  • HYUFD said:

    So when I go from Essex to Kent to see my parents and partners parents will we need to take passports?
    Just flash your party membership card.
  • Ian Brown claims pandemic was “planned and designed to make us digital slaves”

    Kids...drugs are bad...mmmmokkk.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,839

    Ian Brown claims pandemic was “planned and designed to make us digital slaves”

    Kids...drugs are bad...mmmmokkk.

    "Social distancing. Stands for Super Oppressive Control Initiative Activate Lies Divide Indoctrinate Sheep Total Authoritarian National Conspiracy It’s Nazi Germany. Think about it."

    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/celebrity/the-clapped-out-mancunian-rock-stars-guide-to-covid-19-20200917200529
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,063
    HYUFD said:

    Biden retakes the lead in new Rasmussen national poll but at 1% his lead is still less than Hillary's 2% 2016 popular vote lead

    In the 3rd week of September four years ago Rasmussen had Trump 44% and Clinton 39%, so Trump is now 6 %-points worse than he was then.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,988
    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
  • CatMan said:
    This is because since No 11 got annexed by No 10 it needs to be reported to Bozo and Cummings and Sunak couldn't get everything on the back of a fag packet
  • isam said:

    My Dad had a cancer op last Oct, became a Grandfather for the first time in Nov, and got Sepsis in Dec. Obviously he was in the vulnerable group during lockdown.

    He says being with his Grandson has made him happier than he has ever been in his life (bit of a diss on his son), and he comes round at every opportunity to take him for a walk. So what do we do, tell him to stay away?

    Add him to your bubble; put the boy in the pram/buggy yourself; IANAQuack.

    ETA the buggy means they are socially-distanced anyway so just ban hugging, kissing and nappy-changing!
    See HMG's FAQ.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572

    Is it just me, or could revelation of the continued existence of the Nixon Sandwich blow the 2020 presidential campaign wide op.

    Preserved quasi-cryogenically for six decades, some pundits contend that the Sandwich could reveal still unknown facets of the live and times of America's 37th president.

    In particular, authorities disagree whether Nixon had an over-bite, or an under-bite, which is nearly as controversial as the debate over what happened to those missing 18 1/2 minutes from the White House tapes.

    Look for the current president to soon issue a barrage of tweets re: the Nixon Sandwich. Which could (yet again?) change the course of US and world history?

    Maybe they could use any Nixon DNA contained therein to recreate him like in Jurassic Park. Tricky Dicky may have been a crook, but at least he knew what he was doing. #Nixon2020.
    There was a bumper sticker from 2000 6 years after Nixon died, 'Nixon 2000, he's not as stiff as Gore'.

    Nixon was probably the brightest US president since WW2 but deeply flawed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572
    isam said:

    Boris would have been the man who lost the Union, but I think people who would criticise him for it will have a different take on Keir losing it.

    "A noble democrat to his very core... so much so that, despite being extremely patriotic (unlike Corbyn), he is prepared to break up the country"
    The Tories will let him have the moral high ground as they retake power without a general election after Westminster loses all the SNP MPs a PM Starmer post 2024 is relying on to stay in power
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,431

    Nigelb said:
    What is scarier is that it has happened before. 1876.
    Scarier still is that Article II, if you squint at it, just about provides a fig leaf:
    ...Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress...

    And we have it in the Republicans' own words over the current Supreme Court vacancy that "whatever the constitution permits" is permissible... no, a moral obligation.
  • HYUFD said:

    Is it just me, or could revelation of the continued existence of the Nixon Sandwich blow the 2020 presidential campaign wide op.

    Preserved quasi-cryogenically for six decades, some pundits contend that the Sandwich could reveal still unknown facets of the live and times of America's 37th president.

    In particular, authorities disagree whether Nixon had an over-bite, or an under-bite, which is nearly as controversial as the debate over what happened to those missing 18 1/2 minutes from the White House tapes.

    Look for the current president to soon issue a barrage of tweets re: the Nixon Sandwich. Which could (yet again?) change the course of US and world history?

    Maybe they could use any Nixon DNA contained therein to recreate him like in Jurassic Park. Tricky Dicky may have been a crook, but at least he knew what he was doing. #Nixon2020.
    There was a bumper sticker from 2000 6 years after Nixon died, 'Nixon 2000, he's not as stiff as Gore'.

    Nixon was probably the brightest US president since WW2 but deeply flawed
    He was very able but he corrupted the political process in a way that nourished the problems the US is now struggling with.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 28,431
    HYUFD said:
    "Outraged".
    Sure. On behalf of the guy who boasted he could have f*cked Harry's mother.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden retakes the lead in new Rasmussen national poll but at 1% his lead is still less than Hillary's 2% 2016 popular vote lead

    In the 3rd week of September four years ago Rasmussen had Trump 44% and Clinton 39%, so Trump is now 6 %-points worse than he was then.
    Rasmussen September 26th to 28th 2016 was a 1 point Clinton lead ie exactly the same as the current Biden lead
    Clinton 42% Trump 41%
    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/election_2016_white_house_watch_trends
  • FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,063

    Is it just me, or could revelation of the continued existence of the Nixon Sandwich blow the 2020 presidential campaign wide op.

    Preserved quasi-cryogenically for six decades, some pundits contend that the Sandwich could reveal still unknown facets of the live and times of America's 37th president.

    In particular, authorities disagree whether Nixon had an over-bite, or an under-bite, which is nearly as controversial as the debate over what happened to those missing 18 1/2 minutes from the White House tapes.

    Look for the current president to soon issue a barrage of tweets re: the Nixon Sandwich. Which could (yet again?) change the course of US and world history?

    PB just wants to know if it was a Hawaiian sandwich.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,839
    If a transgender POC doesn't get the role he should give the walking money back

  • Nigelb said:
    It is a good job there is a neutral supreme court in place to rule on these things.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572

    FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
    Also good news for the Scottish LDs who have the anti hard Brexit Unionist vote all to themselves, now the Tories are the hard Brexit Unionist party and Labour are the in theory Unionist but will allow indyref2 party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 81,572
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    "Outraged".
    Sure. On behalf of the guy who boasted he could have f*cked Harry's mother.
    'President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski teed off on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle after they recorded a video plug urging Americans to register to vote and Harry urged Americans to 'reject hate speech.'

    'They made Britain great again by leaving, I hope they do the same for us,' Lewandowski, now a senior 2020 advisor to the Trump campaign, told DailyMail.com Wednesday, in comments after Harry and Meghan's comments in a Time 100 video message made waves on both sides of the Atlantic.'
  • FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,063

    isam said:

    My Dad had a cancer op last Oct, became a Grandfather for the first time in Nov, and got Sepsis in Dec. Obviously he was in the vulnerable group during lockdown.

    He says being with his Grandson has made him happier than he has ever been in his life (bit of a diss on his son), and he comes round at every opportunity to take him for a walk. So what do we do, tell him to stay away?

    No. Meet up with him outside and allow them to have time together (where curtain twitching neighbours can't see you).
    The Segmentators would be saying Grandfather must isolate completely, and let Grandson have a life.
  • FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
    To be honest I am astonished Starmer has made such a gigantic mistake on Scotland
  • I expect labour will be wiped out in Holyrood 21 as they surrender the union vote to the conservatives

    I do not disagree with his position but politically naive and unnecessary
    Not a bad thing to say what he thinks, rather than what people think he ought to say. Perhaps the calculation is that for those who don't want independence they should not vote SNP. A clear SNP win would be, sadly, a mandate. More of a mandate than Johnson currently has for his balls up no-deal Brexit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,919
    edited September 2020
    If one good thing is to come out of all this, maybe it will be the idea that you can get married without the presence of every single person you, your partner, their parents and your parents have ever met.
    At the cost of a deposit on a moderate semi-detached.
  • As I posted earlier, the fish and chip shop staff had not even realised there are new rules from tomorrow, let alone what they are.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    What is scarier is that it has happened before. 1876.
    Scarier still is that Article II, if you squint at it, just about provides a fig leaf:
    ...Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress...

    And we have it in the Republicans' own words over the current Supreme Court vacancy that "whatever the constitution permits" is permissible... no, a moral obligation.
    Well Indeed that's how they resolved the 1876 election. Not by the votes but a political compromise and then the legislatures deciding who had won accordingly. So if the legislatures do it again it'd take a remarkable SCOTUS intervention to stop it . . .
  • FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
    To be honest I am astonished Starmer has made such a gigantic mistake on Scotland
    Surely it is just a statement of the bleeding obvious. If a party wins, by definition it has a mandate for whatever it put in its manifesto.
  • What a refreshing change from Bercow.....

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,302

    FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
    To be honest I am astonished Starmer has made such a gigantic mistake on Scotland
    Just shows he doesnt think he will be PM next time.

    Easy to make a promise you dont have to keep
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,191

    Well done Boris.
    Your delusion really has no limits does it?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,834

    This is why Theresa May's Deal was better: customs union until such time as customs differentials could be fully digitised.

    Sunk by the Brexiteer ultra-fanatics and the up-their-own-arsehole Remainers.

    What a mix.

    Sorry Casino I normally agree with you but can't here. Necessity is the mother of invention, if we had gone into May's deal the customs union would have been permanent as we'd never get the differentials digitised. Without it being necessary it would never happen.

    It is only because of the deadline that this is becoming real.
    No it wouldn't, because the EU wouldn't want a situation where the UK got pretty much all the same "benefits" as other EU members, but without the legal obligations or financial costs (or indeed freedom of movement).

    It was, as @Sean_F pointed out at the time, a pretty uncomfortable position for the EU to be in, and one that they would be keen for us to leave as quickly as possible.

    The problem with the Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated by Boris Johnson, is that it made the 'uncomfortable party' us. We were the people who were put in the bad position as the clock ticked down, because we didn't want the backstop to come into existence, and therefore the EU had the whip hand in the negotiations.

    All this was discussed on here at the time.

    And a lot of people - including a lot of naturally Eurosceptic people - raised the objection that Boris Johnson's deal put us in a worse negotiating position.

    But he pushed it through anyway. And then, belatedly, realised, and is now attempting to rewrite the Withdrawal Agreement. Which, of course, comes with its own disadvantages.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,856
    Afternoon all :)

    As is often the case, Wednesday brings a blizzard of polling from the US elections with four national polls all released.

    Rasmussen is, as always, on its own but it now shows Bide leading Trump 48-47. No crosstabs so we have no idea who is being sampled, where and how

    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep23

    The margin of error is 2.5% on a sample of 3000 Likely Voters.

    Elsewhere, the Economist/You Gov is reporting headline figures of 49-42 to Biden among a sample of 1124 Likely voters (the larger sample includes some 156 non-voters). Margin of Error is 3.5%

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/b8ow3q7r1e/econTabReport.pdf

    I think that's a slight move away from Biden to Undecided. I'm not keen on polls showing those who aren't going to vote but that's increasingly showing in polls. Once again, the Undecided numbers are very small (just 6% here and only 2% with Rasmussen).

    Change Research for CNBC has Biden up 51-42

    https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CNBC-CR_National-Toplines-Wave-14-Wave-14_-9_18-20.pdf

    Only 3% left Undecided - a poll of 1430 Likely voters with a margin of Error of 2.6%.

    Finally, USC Dornslife has its tracking poll which also shows Biden up 51-42.

    https://election.usc.edu/

    Not much useful information from that to be honest.
  • Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This falls into the 'no one could have forecast the increased demand' category.

    Shortages threaten Johnson's pledge of 500,000 UK Covid tests a day
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/shortages-threaten-johnson-pledge-500000-uk-covid-tests-a-day
    ...The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.

    Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.

    “The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added...


    Any criticism of Dido would, of course be < bluster >"utterly unwarranted"< /bluster >.

    Dido is music for people who don't like music.
    Dunno, I quite like Purcell, although he's probably a bit old fashioned for some.
    The Dido we're talking about is to management what Hannan is to intellectuals.
    Dan is an idealist, like many of his counterparts on the left. Idealism rarely survives reality, sadly, although sometimes it adds interest to an argument.

    Dido the manager might need a course on what encryption is for but she's probably no worse than anyone else who would have been available at short notice. Doing that job must be like herding cats.



  • FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
    To be honest I am astonished Starmer has made such a gigantic mistake on Scotland
    Surely it is just a statement of the bleeding obvious. If a party wins, by definition it has a mandate for whatever it put in its manifesto.
    With respect I am not sure if you realise how bad this is for labour in Scotland
  • Well done Boris.
    Your delusion really has no limits does it?
    Before the IM Bill he was explicitly making that threat. After it suddenly he's rowed back faster than Cambridge could. Funny that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,191

    Well done Boris.
    Your delusion really has no limits does it?
    Before the IM Bill he was explicitly making that threat. After it suddenly he's rowed back faster than Cambridge could. Funny that.
    :D
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,191

    FF43 said:

    Tricky for Labour in Scotland. They need independence to go away as issue so they can pick up Labour/SNP floating voters while hanging onto their federalist Unionist/Remain rump. The 20% or so British, not Scottish, voter block will stay Conservative and never go Labour anyway
    Starmer's first real tactical blunder and unnecessary

    He has handed the union vote to the conservatives who will be merciless on him and labour and it hardly attracks indy voters who are all in with the SNP

    Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson's Christmases have all come at once
    To be honest I am astonished Starmer has made such a gigantic mistake on Scotland
    Surely it is just a statement of the bleeding obvious. If a party wins, by definition it has a mandate for whatever it put in its manifesto.
    With respect I am not sure if you realise how bad this is for labour in Scotland
    I guess we'll see if the polls change?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    On current polls Starmer could become PM but only with the support of SNP MPs, assuming the SNP win a majority at Holyrood next year and Starmer becomes PM in 2024 and then grants them indyref2 and it is a Yes, Starmer could then lose power to the Tories without another general election then
    We are in "new normal" territory. Too many variables to predict, particularly when there is a great likelihood Johnson won't make it to the next election, and the so-called red wall seats no longer have a reason to vote Tory as there is no Jeremy Corbyn, and those that really cared about Brexit will no longer see it as an issue.

    Additionally there is likely to be a resurgence of the LDs as Starmer is not seen as the threat that Corbyn was, so centrists will feel more comfortable about voting LD even if they wont vote Labour. I think if the current government does not get a grip (and get rid of the hopeless Johnson) we could easily see Tories lose masses of seats at the next GE and Labour might even squeak a small majority even without many Scots gains. All guesswork though. Experience tells me that any organisation cannot be so hopelessly led for long without some sort of reckoning
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,919
    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 4,225
    edited September 2020

    Well done Boris.
    Your delusion really has no limits does it?
    Before the IM Bill he was explicitly making that threat. After it suddenly he's rowed back faster than Cambridge could. Funny that.
    :D
    Quite. The only people claiming he made this "threat" was the British Government. I assume we still need to fill out the forms.

    Still presumably the UK Govt can now happily amend the IM bill...

    Or alternatively it's all been brilliantly choreographed. EU doesn't make threat. UK accuses them of making threat. EU "defensively" denies making threat. UK introduces bill to combat threat. EU withdraws "threat". UK claims EU have folded to delight of Brexit supporters. Deal is signed. Everyone happy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,919

    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    This really really fucks me off. Rather than try and educate the public, the first response has always been find a loophole or edge case.
    You are not alone my friend.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,993

    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    This really really fucks me off. Rather than try and educate the public, the first response has always been find a loophole or edge case.

    This is deeply irresponsible, encouraging dangerous behaviour. Imagine if they broadcast the locations of police roadside stops for drink driving tests were over a Christmas period.
    Yes, perhaps they should focus more on getting the message out rather than trying to find ways to muddy the waters.
  • RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    This really really fucks me off. Rather than try and educate the public, the first response has always been find a loophole or edge case.

    This is deeply irresponsible, encouraging dangerous behaviour. Imagine if they broadcast the locations of police roadside stops for drink driving tests were over a Christmas period.
    Yes, perhaps they should focus more on getting the message out rather than trying to find ways to muddy the waters.
    The waters were originally muddied when Boris Johnson didn't fire the lockdown bandit.
  • Well done Boris.
    Your delusion really has no limits does it?
    It is quite quaint. How someone can so blindly and unquestioningly follow someone so palpably hopeless is astonishing. I am still convinced Philip Thomson is simply a nom de plume for a collective of spotty youths in Conservative Central Office
  • dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    The man is a menace.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 12,191
    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    That's also illegal in the NE and other "local lockdown" areas.
  • RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    This really really fucks me off. Rather than try and educate the public, the first response has always been find a loophole or edge case.

    This is deeply irresponsible, encouraging dangerous behaviour. Imagine if they broadcast the locations of police roadside stops for drink driving tests were over a Christmas period.
    Yes, perhaps they should focus more on getting the message out rather than trying to find ways to muddy the waters.
    Also witty and Valance were clear on monday, you need to minimize your mixing between households. Just because at the moment the government haven't outlawed it, this nonsense is still encouraging people to act in direct contradiction to the egg heads advice. And what any sensible educated responsible person can see is what they should be doing.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,856
    On then to the equal blizzard of State polls and into the mix has been thrown some strong polling for Trump carried put by ABC News and the Washington Post.

    https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a22020StateBattlegrounds-FLAZ.pdf

    Trump leads by 51-47 in Florida and 48-47 in Arizona, both states which Biden might well need to win the election. It's the strength in economic management that is bolstering the Trump lead with the administration more trusted on the economy than the challenger at this time.

    This should ring some alarm bells among Democrat strategists ad the economy seems to be Biden's principal weakness and it's the principal issue for a third of voters in both states.

    Other State polling around is better for Biden with two other Florida polls putting Biden ahead by three (49-46 and 50-47 respectively). Other CNBC/Change Research state polls have Biden leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina.

    Georgia remains in the TCTC column with a Monmouth poll showing Trump leading 47-46 among registered voters but this is just a sample of 402 with a margin of error of nearly 5%

    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ga_092320.pdf/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 4,225
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    This really really fucks me off. Rather than try and educate the public, the first response has always been find a loophole or edge case.
    You are not alone my friend.
    Yep i agree here. Albeit i don't blame businesses for looking for loopholes and the "letter of the law" when their futures depend on it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,069
    edited September 2020
    Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, has just said on Wales news that Wales is closing pubs at 10.00pm partly because if England closes earlier than Wales the customers will just come into Wales

    What a way to make policy
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 4,225

    dixiedean said:

    PM doing a discussion about Xmas. Presenter saying you can still see everyone. Just go to see 6 different people at their houses every day between Christmas and New Year.
    Head...desk.

    The man is a menace.
    You do realise that this post wasn't criticising the PM?
  • Another example of food processing facilities seeming to be very high risk.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, has just said on Wales news that Wales is closing pubs at 10.00pm partly because if England closes earlier than Wales the customers will just come into Wales

    What way to make policy

    He’s not wrong though
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 4,225

    Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, has just said on Wales news that Wales is closing pubs at 10.00pm partly because if England closes earlier than Wales the customers will just come into Wales

    What a way to make policy

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,069
    edited September 2020
    nichomar said:

    Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, has just said on Wales news that Wales is closing pubs at 10.00pm partly because if England closes earlier than Wales the customers will just come into Wales

    What way to make policy

    He’s not wrong though
    But I thought it was science led !!!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 4,225
    nichomar said:

    Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, has just said on Wales news that Wales is closing pubs at 10.00pm partly because if England closes earlier than Wales the customers will just come into Wales

    What way to make policy

    He’s not wrong though
    Really? The time it takes to get there and back, you might as well have spent in the pub.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    What is scarier is that it has happened before. 1876.
    Scarier still is that Article II, if you squint at it, just about provides a fig leaf:
    ...Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress...

    And we have it in the Republicans' own words over the current Supreme Court vacancy that "whatever the constitution permits" is permissible... no, a moral obligation.
    Well Indeed that's how they resolved the 1876 election. Not by the votes but a political compromise and then the legislatures deciding who had won accordingly. So if the legislatures do it again it'd take a remarkable SCOTUS intervention to stop it . . .
    Re: election of electors by states "in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct" starting in 1789 some states elected them by popular vote (statewide or by district) OR by the legislature itself. The trend in early 19th century was toward popular vote by district, though South Carolina legislature elected that states electors up through 1860.

    Note that this same constitutional provision is basis for Maine and Nebraska electing some of their electors by congressional district, and the remaining two statewide.

    Re: 1876, the election was decided NOT by states electing new sets of electors to supersede the ones chosen (as per state laws) by the voters, but rather by compromise over which set of EVs to count from Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina where TWO sets of returns were submitted by conflicting state authorities. (Plus one EV from Oregon cast by someone ineligible to serve as elector under state law).

    When the electoral vote was tabulated by the US House, in all disputed cases (FL, LA, SC & OR) the EV was counted for Republican incumbent Grant, and not for Democratic challenger Tilden.

    Fast-forwarding to 2020, whatever dangers may lie ahead, state legislatures suddenly assembling to submit new slates of electors post-Election Day (for what purpose, exactly?) is far-fetched.

    More so anyway than the electoral impact of the sixty-year-old Nixon Sandwich>
  • Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, has just said on Wales news that Wales is closing pubs at 10.00pm partly because if England closes earlier than Wales the customers will just come into Wales

    What a way to make policy

    Actually quite logical. For the border towns that really could happen.

    It's not exactly far from Chester or Bristol or elsewhere into Wales.
This discussion has been closed.