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Biden’s national poll lead remains and the swing state surveys are looking positive – politicalbetti

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  • Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.

    Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?

    What concessions are we bringing?
    I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.
    You’re hilariously deluded. :D

    Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.
    If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,588

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.

    Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
    It is a trend. Positivity rate has been pushing upwards for a while now.
    UK positivity is around 1.5% so Scottish positivity being 7.8% seems very odd.
    Remember that's newly tested individuals not results of tests.

    Scotland did 12497 tests.
    That means that we should have had 975 +ve results on that rate, roughly twice what has been announced. Something a bit odd here but nothing makes these numbers good.
    IT means of people who've never had a test before 7.6% tested positive. So there were 5000 people newly tested yesterday. But in total 12497 tests were done
    Well, thanks for the explanation but what a weird way to present the statistics. Who cares if people have been tested before? What we want to know is how many have got the virus now. So, assuming the +ve results are not restricted to the new people but all of those tested the real +ve rate is 3.9% of all tests done. Which is bad enough.
    The people tested before will largely be health service and care home workers who are tested regularly .
    So? You think they are immune? Sadly several dead doctors, nurses and care workers prove otherwise.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,325

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.

    Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
    So Scotland has suddenly accelerated ahead of England from a position when we were doing better than the average, if not quite matching the SW.

    When you think about why, and I really, really hate to say this, by far the most obvious explanation is that our kids went back to school 2-3 weeks earlier than England. Bugger. If we cannot get the R rate under 1 with kids attending school we have an absolute nightmare on our hands.
    The idea that having schools go back would not increase the rate of infection was and is ridiculous. Just look at all the possible permutations - three siblings in different years each with after-school activities with people from other scholls for example and you have the whole of one school open to cross contamination and any number of other schools likewise via the after-school activities.

    But Boris says the increasing case rate is our fault.
    Increasing case numbers are coming from young adults not children at the minute.
    First off we don't know the delivery mechanism. Second, sending children back to school brings in all kinds of other people from older siblings to teaching assistants to nannies to you name it.

    The whole paraphernalia of getting children back to schools - a policy I happen to agree with - was going to increase the infection rate.

    The question is what price are we willing to pay to let it happen.
    Reopening the schools was always going to be risky, even though it is essential. If we'd been planning this properly, we'd have shut down all non-essential business and travel (as we did in March) prior to reopening the schools and, only then, begun to gradually reopen businesses while keeping a close eye on the R number.

    While this would have meant more financial pain at beginning, it would at least have given some hope for the future and kept the death count down. Instead, we are running a great risk of infections spiralling out of control and needing another prolonged and unplanned total shutdown at even more cost to life and commerce.
    Thing is, let's say opening schools causes infections to spike, which I think is a reasonable hypothesis.

    That means, simply, that you can't reopen them until there is a vaccine.

    As I said earlier, the whole process of opening schools means there will likely be huge virus dissemination.
    The point I'm trying to make is that it would have been a good idea to minimise transmission via other means before reopening the schools. It might then have been possible to keep R below 1 despite virus transmission through schools. Instead, we have opted for almost certain chaos.
    Maybe. But I'm not sure about the compliance with, say, a full lockdown or something similar, in advance of opening schools.

    Before schools opened (Aug/Sep?) society was pretty open.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,060
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.

    Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?

    Don't count your chickens, chlorinated or otherwise, before they hatch Philip.
    Unless the confessions are signed off by Berlin then they are worthless so let's see what they actually are. If it's a 5 or 6/10 state aid agreement then I expect we will sign the deal and scrap the internal markets bill.
    Nice Freudian typo.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,316

    Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.

    Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?

    What concessions are we bringing?
    I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.
    You’re hilariously deluded. :D

    Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.
    If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?
    Because you didn’t know what was in it? Just like you supported the Withdrawal Agreement without knowing what was in it?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,315
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Blimey on the ABC Arizona poll 77% are planning to vote by mail.

    Does it break it down by party affiliation?
    Yes.
    @TheScreamingEagles

    I actualyl misread, the early voting figures are
    49% Vote Early By Mail
    Split
    69% Dem Vote Early By Mail
    44% GOP Vote Early By Mail
    42% Independents Vote Early By Mail

  • Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.

    Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?

    What concessions are we bringing?
    I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.
    You’re hilariously deluded. :D

    Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.
    If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?
    Because you didn’t know what was in it? Just like you supported the Withdrawal Agreement without knowing what was in it?
    I did and I opposed it for my principles. If I was just a Conservative hack then I would have backed that agreement, but I have my own free thoughts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,456
    edited September 23

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.

    Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.
    Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?

    That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
    Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.

    Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
    I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.

    As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).
    Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,315
    The ABC poll has move the market by about 0.05
  • Roland said:

    11 documented cases of reinfection. Average interval between infections 64 days. 4 cases symptoms worse second time around, 2 improved, 3 stayed the same, 2 undocumented.

    More data needed, but it's possible we have a new at risk group, namely those who have already been infected once.

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/

    Reinfection is an interesting and important issue, but let's not hype it up with "new at risk group" language. 11 documented cases from 32 million confirmed worldwide infections simply doesn't merit that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,456
    Alistair said:

    So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.

    But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.

    In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
    The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.

    Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban Americans
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited September 23
    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,316

    Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.

    Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?

    What concessions are we bringing?
    I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.
    You’re hilariously deluded. :D

    Either way if there is a deal you will celebrate it as a brilliant success, even if previously you’d denounced the compromises as a vassal state situation or some other. It’s just what you do.
    If thats the case, why did I reject May's deal?
    Because you didn’t know what was in it? Just like you supported the Withdrawal Agreement without knowing what was in it?
    I did and I opposed it for my principles. If I was just a Conservative hack then I would have backed that agreement, but I have my own free thoughts.
    No you just parroted what Boris and the like said, which ended up being total rubbish.

    Just like you told us for many months how Boris’s WA meant no border in the Irish Sea and then as soon as the government oppose it for exactly that reason, you suddenly don’t support it anymore.

    You never understood what the deal was. Principles and free thoughts has nothing to do with it.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.

    But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.

    In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
    The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.

    Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban Americans
    The weighting change to capture more high school or less voters than in 2016 still means polls are less weighted against Trump (or more weighted for Trump if you prefer) than four years ago.

    If you increase the weight on group X, that favours the person who polls well in group X. That the person used to do even better in group X is nice to know but doesn't alter the fundamental, mathematical point.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,188
    edited September 23
    HYUFD said:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/health/covid-19-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

    Cliffnotes,

    They are just about to start a Phase 3 trial.

    The trial started on Monday. At a news conference on Tuesday, Dr. Paul Stoffels, chief scientific officer of Johnson & Johnson, said the company might be able to determine by the end of the year if the vaccine is safe and effective.
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.

    But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.

    In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
    The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.

    Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban Americans
    This is fundamentally the problem with the state polls - how much can you trust them? Looking at the 3 most recent polls for Arizona, for example, you have ABC - Trump+1; Siena Biden +9; YouGov Biden+3. That doesn't particularly build confidence. The interesting thing is that all 3 polls have similar figures for Biden but differ in the Trump figures, ranging from 40% Trump for Siena to 49% for ABC

  • HYUFD said:
    Does this refer to Boris and Stanley, or Boris and Jo?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,316
    Scott_xP said:
    :D So is that why they are building lorry parks in the Midlands and the North? Good grief.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,684

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.

    Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
    So Scotland has suddenly accelerated ahead of England from a position when we were doing better than the average, if not quite matching the SW.

    When you think about why, and I really, really hate to say this, by far the most obvious explanation is that our kids went back to school 2-3 weeks earlier than England. Bugger. If we cannot get the R rate under 1 with kids attending school we have an absolute nightmare on our hands.
    The idea that having schools go back would not increase the rate of infection was and is ridiculous. Just look at all the possible permutations - three siblings in different years each with after-school activities with people from other scholls for example and you have the whole of one school open to cross contamination and any number of other schools likewise via the after-school activities.

    But Boris says the increasing case rate is our fault.
    Increasing case numbers are coming from young adults not children at the minute.
    First off we don't know the delivery mechanism. Second, sending children back to school brings in all kinds of other people from older siblings to teaching assistants to nannies to you name it.

    The whole paraphernalia of getting children back to schools - a policy I happen to agree with - was going to increase the infection rate.

    The question is what price are we willing to pay to let it happen.
    "What’s really missing, of course... is a clear statement of what the new national mission is so that we can debate it. Is this about keeping deaths down to a certain level? Is it about keeping hospitalisations within the health system’s capacity? What are the long-term economic and health costs of our approach?"

    Telegraph
    It's a good point. It seems that the "mission" is to keep Covid hospitalizations down well within NHS capacity until a vaccine is available next year. Restrictions of a greater or lesser amount to enforce distancing in place for at least the next six months to achieve this objective. Schools kept open to be the top priority. That's where I reckon we are but there hasn't really been a clear communication of this and perhaps there ought to be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,843

    Roland said:

    11 documented cases of reinfection. Average interval between infections 64 days. 4 cases symptoms worse second time around, 2 improved, 3 stayed the same, 2 undocumented.

    More data needed, but it's possible we have a new at risk group, namely those who have already been infected once.

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/

    Reinfection is an interesting and important issue, but let's not hype it up with "new at risk group" language. 11 documented cases from 32 million confirmed worldwide infections simply doesn't merit that.
    Agreed - though you do have to wonder how many cases might not have been documented. And whether the two month period for susceptibility to reinfection is the extreme end of a normal distribution.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,938
    Scott_xP said:
    What, so anybody driving a lorry from Orpington to Sevenoaks needs a "Kent Axis Permit"? That's what the tweet implies, but I can't believe it.
  • On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    That's awful, that's French levels of positive rate. Very worrying.

    Hope its a abberation and not a trend.
    It is a trend. Positivity rate has been pushing upwards for a while now.
    UK positivity is around 1.5% so Scottish positivity being 7.8% seems very odd.
    Remember that's newly tested individuals not results of tests.

    Scotland did 12497 tests.
    That means that we should have had 975 +ve results on that rate, roughly twice what has been announced. Something a bit odd here but nothing makes these numbers good.
    IT means of people who've never had a test before 7.6% tested positive. So there were 5000 people newly tested yesterday. But in total 12497 tests were done
    Well, thanks for the explanation but what a weird way to present the statistics. Who cares if people have been tested before? What we want to know is how many have got the virus now. So, assuming the +ve results are not restricted to the new people but all of those tested the real +ve rate is 3.9% of all tests done. Which is bad enough.
    The people tested before will largely be health service and care home workers who are tested regularly .
    So? You think they are immune? Sadly several dead doctors, nurses and care workers prove otherwise.
    Huh? I was just providing context.as to who this group might be. I agree 3.9% would have been a clearer figure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,293
    edited September 23
    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,843

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    So the one thing I would say about the ABC polls is like many pollsters they have completely reweighted hwo they are doing education.

    But, in a world's first, they may be over egging the HS or less.

    In 2016 the CNN Florida (which as far as I can tell was broadly accurate with Cliton's under by 1 and Trump's score bang on) exit poll had 18% HS or less voter.
    The ABC poll has weighted it to 34% HS or less.

    Though of course the polling shows Biden doing better than Clinton with HS or less voters anyway while Trump is doing better with the richest voters and Cuban Americans
    This is fundamentally the problem with the state polls - how much can you trust them? Looking at the 3 most recent polls for Arizona, for example, you have ABC - Trump+1; Siena Biden +9; YouGov Biden+3. That doesn't particularly build confidence. The interesting thing is that all 3 polls have similar figures for Biden but differ in the Trump figures, ranging from 40% Trump for Siena to 49% for ABC

    And complicating it will be significant shifts within particular groups since the last election. The shape of Biden’s support is likely quite different to Clinton’s, so that the corrections made for pollsters’ mistakes last time might be just as wrong (in either direction) this time around.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,938
    edited September 23
    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    Looks like I'll be moving over from English Cheddar to Irish Cheddar then, both of which are available in (the better) German supermarkets. How many other citizens of EU countries will be making similar choices to buy less UK products?
  • On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Harbingers of the storm.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 784

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Should we not read between the lines on this and drop the hyperbole? There will be a deal accompanied by a 12-month extension of the implementation period. The rest is noise.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    It isn't a case of whether the EU wants a trade deal with those numbers. It's a case of whether the UK wants trade.

    (And jobs. And also whether UK consumers are happy paying a LOT more for stuff, not just from the EU).
  • eekeek Posts: 9,603
    Scott_xP said:
    And I suspect that 24% are deluding themselves.
  • Interesting that Sky are talking about progress being made in trade talks and Barnier bringing concessions.

    Almost as if the UK playing hard ball works. Who could have foreseen that?

    What concessions are we bringing?
    I imagine we will bring some ultimately, that's how compromises work. But we hold the cards so it should be a deal along the lines of what we have asked for in the end, tweaked to however makes it acceptable to them.
    The thing is that, if parispolitques.fr existed, it would be very easy to imagine a poster called Phillipe saying exactly the same things- we (in his case, the EU) have to stand firm so we get broadly what we want because we hold the cards in the negotiations.

    And whilst some things can be fudged, not everything can be. And if we're talking about no deal prep, the other side of the Channel seem a lot more confident that they've done enough.

    Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Blimey on the ABC Arizona poll 77% are planning to vote by mail.

    Does it break it down by party affiliation?
    Yes.
    @TheScreamingEagles

    I actualyl misread, the early voting figures are
    49% Vote Early By Mail
    Split
    69% Dem Vote Early By Mail
    44% GOP Vote Early By Mail
    42% Independents Vote Early By Mail

    Ta.
  • FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    With all this talk of imminent trade wars with the EU we've sure come along way from Liam's 'easiest trade deal in history'.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    It isn't a case of whether the EU wants a trade deal with those numbers. It's a case of whether the UK wants trade.

    (And jobs. And also whether UK consumers are happy paying a LOT more for stuff, not just from the EU).
    The UK wants trade, just not at any price. The UK is offering a trade deal with standard pro forma trade terms.

    It is up to the EU if they want to accept that or if they want to insist upon dynamic alignment which will lead to No Deal being inevitable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,772
    Some excellent state polling for Biden from Change Research today

    WI

    SEP 18-20, 2020
    C-
    Change Research
    571 LV Biden
    51%
    42%
    Trump Biden +9

    PA

    SEP 18-20, 2020
    C-
    Change Research
    579 LV Biden
    49%
    45%
    Trump Biden +4
    President: general election

    NC

    SEP 18-20, 2020
    C-
    Change Research
    579 LV Biden
    48%
    46%
    Trump Biden +2
    President: general election

    MI

    SEP 18-20, 2020
    C-
    Change Research
    568 LV Biden
    51%
    43%
    Trump Biden +8
    President: general election

    FL

    SEP 18-20, 2020
    C-
    Change Research
    702 LV Biden
    49%
    46%
    Trump Biden +3
    President: general election

    AZ

    SEP 18-20, 2020
    C-
    Change Research
    262 LV Biden
    49%
    43%
    Trump Biden +6
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,325

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
  • On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Harbingers of the storm.
    VP, Edible Grocery "we're only a few days in, but this is the exact same pattern of panic buying we saw last time"
  • Scott_xP said:
    Its impossible to implement because the KAP will be generated by the Goods Vehicle Movement Service which (a) doesn't exist and (b) almost certainly won't work out of the box and (c) won't have been implemented into the haulier's systems because of points (a) and (b)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,204

    Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.

    What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,315
    Polls with Biden having a near 10 point lead in Arizona is released, markets stay silent.

    Poll gives Trump a 1 point lead Biden's price slumps instantly.

    This is not a rational market.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.

    What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?
    voyez, nous avons tenu toutes les grandes cartes
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,250
    Scott_xP said:

    Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.

    What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?
    That it’s a great deal, far better than that evil May woman’s deal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904

    Considering the EU has a trade surplus with us it would be in their interests to start taking the trade talks seriously and give a clean, simple, Canada style trade deal then wouldn't it?

    But it takes two to tango, if they don't want to, we can't make them, so no deal it can be.
    We hold all the cards.
    We do indeed. We can walk away and make a clean break quite confidently.
    Being willing to walk away is not the same as holding all the cards though.
    Why not? Being able to walk away is a card.
    Two of clubs is also a card.
  • TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Philip and Phillipe can't both be right.

    What will Phillipe say when BoZo inevitably folds?
    That the move has been pre-planned for several years and constitutes a brilliant triumph.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    My daughter’s place has a licence until 2 am. And yes people do stay that late. It’s a sociable place the only place for the 4 villages it serves where people can meet - for a chat, quiz nights, announcing the winner of the leek-growing competition, meetings of the local historical and other societies, the village hall meetings, music events etc etc.

    There are four distinct groups who go there in an evening: the early drinkers, those who go there for a meal and a drink, the 2-3 post-meal pints and the late-nighters. The effect of shutting at 10 will be either to lose the trade from the last group or they will come earlier and the pub will need to prioritise between them using a table or eaters, unless it is still warm enough to sit outside. What it won’t do is stop that drinking because the likelihood will be that they will drink at home. And good luck to anyone trying to police whether they’re in a group of 6 or not. So the effect on virus spreading is likely to be marginal.

    The effect on the hospitality sector is not going to be marginal, however, especially on top of all the other lost trade.

    If Sunak does not come up with a support package, the hospitality sector will be crucified long before the 6 months is up.

    My brother's is the same. And the late drinkers bring in a lot of profit, at the cost of some very late nights for him.
    I've seen estimates that early closing will cost pubs around half their trade. Does that sound right ?
    Yes. Drinkers standing at a bar bring in a lot of profit. Add to that:-
    1. The loss of events of all kinds;
    2. No Xmas parties or other Xmas events.
    3. The loss of most of the spring / summer season - look at all the Bank Holidays & days like Mother’s Day lost between March - July this year;
    4. The likely loss of the start of the next spring season from the spring half-term holidays onwards, especially if the restrictions last 6 months or longer as Hancock was intimating.
    5. No more furlough help.

    Hospitality is facing 3 winters in a row. It cannot survive this without help. The costs of doing so need to be set against the costs of unemployment - its consequential costs on landlords, banks, other businesses, councils, business closures and its consequences - loss of VAT, alcohol duty, tax, NI - and welfare costs, quite apart from the human costs.
    Not to mention New Year’s Eve, when punters finish their meal by 10pm and then have nothing else to do but stand around buying more drinks until the awaited hour.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Scott_xP said:
    In the hierarchy of new Brexit borders, is the Kent border better or the Irish Sea border better?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,684
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.

    Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.
    Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?

    That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
    Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.

    Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
    I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.

    As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).
    Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.
    No, not a gamechanger. I wonder who would be the celebrity endorsement for Biden that might bring the Rustbelt firmly into his column. Hard to think of one. It would have to be somebody with massive blue collar appeal who is usually apolitical, and if anything has more of a conservative than a liberal vibe to them. And actually, just typing that, there is someone very obvious that springs to mind - Dolly Parton.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,204
    FF43 said:

    In the hierarchy of new Brexit borders, is the Kent border better or the Irish Sea border better?

    It's easier to police...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,060
    Scott_xP said:
    Can they deny Farage a passport to get out?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?
  • Yes, but the main aim was to keep people from Essex out.
  • FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,060
    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    They track and trace them.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,250

    Scott_xP said:
    Can they deny Farage a passport to get out?
    I’d rather we didn’t let him back in again.
  • On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,315
    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    I presume they will have had to pre register.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904
    At this rate the citizens of Kent will need to found a First United Kent Unionist Party.
  • FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Actually I think having to get a pass to drive on the open road from one English county to another is actually pretty fucking unprecedented. The whole of Kent and SE London is going to be a disaster zone. Jesus wept, is there no end to this Brexit lunacy?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    I presume they will have had to pre register.
    Every time they do a 30 minute journey into Kent they have register with this complex system (which doesn't exist, but let's keep it theoretical), to say they are not exporting anything to France?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,456
    edited September 23

    Yes, but the main aim was to keep people from Essex out.
    More likely to keep out people from London, being born in Kent and living in Essex both counties have a similar sociodemographic, not as well off as most of the Home Counties and closer to the national average, went to Blair in 1997 in many seats but have been Tory since he went except Canterbury and both pro Brexit
  • Amazing. Even the most fervidly pessimistic Remainer would have baulked at including the prospect of a hard border around Kent in the Project Fear manual.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,456
    Alistair said:

    Polls with Biden having a near 10 point lead in Arizona is released, markets stay silent.

    Poll gives Trump a 1 point lead Biden's price slumps instantly.

    This is not a rational market.

    The poll average had Hillary ahead in 2016, it was the poll exceptions that were right in the key states
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,772

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    Philip have you checked if you have one of those computers which emits brain-rotting gamma rays?

    Because goddamn everything you type suggests you have.

    What about good old British Pouilly Fuisse?
    I'm not a big fan of French wines, I much prefer New World wines to Old World ones. For a long time Australian Shiraz, but become a fan recently of Argentinian Malbecs.
    Given the sheer breadth of product emanating from France, saying "I'm not a big fan of French wines" is almost as ludicrous as saying "I'm not a big fan of Asian cereals".

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,733

    FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And this gives us the superior cards?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,377

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Actually I think having to get a pass to drive on the open road from one English county to another is actually pretty fucking unprecedented. The whole of Kent and SE London is going to be a disaster zone. Jesus wept, is there no end to this Brexit lunacy?
    They don't sign up for a pass for the kingsway tunnel, they pay a toll. Desperate argument.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,988
    edited September 23
    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
  • If the people in Kent start revolting the government should tell them it would be much worse if we didn't hold all the cards.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Four years after the vote and suddenly we discover goods need a permit to enter Kent? Did no one think of this before?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,772
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Prince Harry is volunteering for some invective from Trump.

    Honestly, this is exactly the kind of shit Trump lives for. A British establishment figure that no one really likes any more chatting shit about the US election. This is exactly like Obama telling the UK about being at the back of the queue etc... It's just completely counterproductive.
    Is Prince Harry unpopular in the USA or does is the general impression of him a man who served in the military, married a well-liked American TV star, and was driven out by the stuffy Brits?

    That's a genuine question - I don't know, but am concerned your view may reflect a UK-centric position (personally, I incline to something like the view I outline above but acknowledge that he's had awful press in the UK and mine is a minority view here).
    Obama was superficially popular too when he made those back of the queue comments. It's one thing for British people to say the country is shite and we hate it here, but very different for an outsider to do say the UK is shite and they hate it. It makes everyone instinctively defensive and dismissive of what that person is saying regardless of whether it's true or not.

    Luckily Americans won't be paying attention to this from Harry and hopefully Trump won't signal boost it. A proper royal would stay out and keep their views to themselves. I'm really hoping team Biden don't signal boost this stuff, it's exactly the kind of endorsement Hillary would have used as an introduction to her at a major event.
    I don't know whether Obama's intervention helped or hindered the Remain campaign, or whether it had no impact. Plainly it didn't work, and the overall "Project Fear" messaging of which it was part was a bad strategy. But I do wonder if the idea it actively harmed the Remain campaign is actually correct.

    As I've also noted, I am not sure whether Prince Harry's intention is actually to help the Biden campaign anyway (although doubtless Meghan is going to vote Biden). They have a series of Netflix programmes in the pipeline, and it isn't the worst thing for him to be in the headlines in the US, regardless of any bearing on the campaign (which I suspect will be minimal either way).
    Indeed, though I cannot imagine having Prince Harry, descendant of King George III and his Hollywood actress wife speaking from the garden of their $15 million mansion in California and telling the oiks in the rustbelt they better vote for Biden- Harris will exactly have been greatly welcomed by the Biden camp, in fact I suspect the Trump campaign will not be bothered about it at all.
    No, not a gamechanger. I wonder who would be the celebrity endorsement for Biden that might bring the Rustbelt firmly into his column. Hard to think of one. It would have to be somebody with massive blue collar appeal who is usually apolitical, and if anything has more of a conservative than a liberal vibe to them. And actually, just typing that, there is someone very obvious that springs to mind - Dolly Parton.
    Joe B, Joe B, Joe B, Joe Beeeeee...

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,315
    OMFG Matt Lieberman doesn't understand the rules of the jungle Primary he is running in.

    Or he does and he's specifically looking to shit it up for the Dems.

  • FF43 said:

    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    I presume they will have had to pre register.
    Every time they do a 30 minute journey into Kent they have register with this complex system (which doesn't exist, but let's keep it theoretical), to say they are not exporting anything to France?
    Considering that a broken down car in the Blackwall Tunnel already sees the whole of SE London descend into gridlock (also Boris Johnson's fault BTW, is there anything that this priapic inbred halfwit hasn't fucked up), the impact of lorries getting stopped on the A20 and A2 in the outskirts of London is unthinkable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,904

    On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.

    On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.
    I suspect many people have enough toilet roll to last well into 2021. Especially if exotic foreign food products are no longer available after Xmas.

    Panic buying this time will have to focus on something else.
  • DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    As a resident of East Kent who will, in four months may well be unable to drive to my nearest Sainsburys (Bybrook, Ashford in case you're interested) because it will involve crossing the M20 at Junction 9, can any of the Brexiters on here give me something about the end of transition to look forward to? I already have my blue passport.
    If it happens you will be able to push as many Brexiteers as you like into the English Channel.
  • FF43 said:

    Some arresting numbers in that report, eg

    Consumers will feel the effect of price increases across all types of [food] products:
    • In the UK, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 9.9% and to be 26.5% under a no deal.
    • In the UK, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the EU under an FTA is estimated to be 4.7% and under a no deal to be 12.5%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for branded and speciality products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 8.5% and under a no deal to be 27.9%.
    • In the EU, the average price increase for unbranded and more substitutable products imported from the UK under an FTA is estimated to be 4.0% and under a no deal to be 13.2%.
    In the UK, speciality cheeses like Halloumi, Gorgonzola, Feta and Roquefort are estimated to experience price increases of 55% under a no deal scenario.

    I suspect though that the UK would reduce its WTO tariff schedule down in the case of No Deal, so the import price increases would be nearer the Deal numbers. The EU won't do likewise and the No Deal cost increases for UK goods will be the No Deal ones and unviable.
    If the EU don't want a trade deal enough then we can have plenty of very good British cheeses that can substitute for European ones if they want a trade war.

    Considering they have a trade surplus with us though I doubt it, they will concede to our superior cards and give us a deal.
    A trade surplus means that we buy more from them than they buy from us.
    And this gives us the superior cards?
    As far as I am aware it is the other way round
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,325

    FF43 said:

    Somewhat serious question. How do the border guards at Sevenoaks tell which lorry is attempting an illegal dash across the Channel and which one is just delivering crates of milk to the local Sainsburys?

    Presumably the ones delivering to Sainsburys would need to sign up for a pass too?

    If I drive through the Kingsway Tunnel then vehicles sign up for a pass to do that. Same at many other tunnels and bridges across the country. So its hardly unprecedented.
    Absolutely. All over the country people need special passes to enter. Nirvana!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,365

    If the people in Kent start revolting the government should tell them it would be much worse if we didn't hold all the cards.

    I think the Kentish people are more likely to kick off about this:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4k6mzoa
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,325

    On an Asda conference. Within the first minute he's confirmed that they are running out of bog rolls and pasta due to the panic buying going on

    Local Sainsbury's so far unaffected. Brought planned fortnightly shop forward from Saturday but no shortages, no queues. They even had a special deal on toilet roll. Didn't engage in any significant panic buying, beyond an extra tube of toothpaste and a bag of bulgur wheat, which was absent from the shelves for about four months for some reason last time around. Plus filled up the car and took out some cash. Total house toilet roll inventory around 15 should be OK for now.
    keep us posted
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 11,316
    So does a HGV need one permit that works indefinitely, or do they need to apply for one for a specific day or time window? If so, how long will the “application process” take? What happens if all the “slots” fill up? Is it going to be a free for all first come first serve system like the covid-19 testing system?
  • tlg86 said:

    If the people in Kent start revolting the government should tell them it would be much worse if we didn't hold all the cards.

    I think the Kentish people are more likely to kick off about this:

    https://tinyurl.com/y4k6mzoa
    I'd forgotten about that, I enjoyed my time campaigning in Rochester & Strood in 2014 and 2015.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 4,377
    Challenge trial starts January, infections February, results start rolling in a fortnight after that. Doesn’t suggest anyone thinks there will be a usable vaccine by end 2020.
This discussion has been closed.