Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
And how did that go for them?
I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
The point is more the impact on that group of people - and it will be quite a large group - who on the whole were following the rules despite feeling there was little personal risk to them in not doing so, on the grounds of "rules are rules" and some innate level of respect for the PM and the government communicating them.
Seeing Cummings, whilst knowingly infected and with the epidemic raging, brazenly break the rules that had only just been minted by a group of people including him, followed not only by no apology from him or from Johnson, but from the latter by a comment verging on praise - "He did what he thought in the best interests of himself and his family and I will not mark him down for that" - this would have caused them, quite reasonably, to relax their own compliance. That would have cost lives and thus is not a trivial matter.
Quite so. What I find most baffling about the Cummings episode is why they just didn't take it on the chin - a political misjudgment. Imagine if he'd said, promptly: "I'm really sorry. I meant well, but I now recognise that it was an error of judgement that broke the spirit, if not the letter, of the government's guidance. Many apologies." He could have survived with this. Surely even the Cummings fans on here would agree that this would have been a better political strategy? Nobody would still be going on about it, I suspect.
Yep. Keep his key man but make it clear to the public that he took the matter seriously. Johnson has the political capital and the comms skills to have done that. That he didn't tells us a lot about the Downing St set-up, the power dynamics there, and none of it is good.
Sure, if we had a sane media, rather than one that behaves like a pack of rabid dogs. Their feeding frenzy was feral - the only way was to stare them down and tell them to fuck off.
Clearly the Government think there will be a compliance issue so want to ramp up the forces of the state to enforce the rules.
Prepare yourself for far more heavy handed and aggressive policing. The very fact that troops are there "on the map" will push the Overton Window of policing further to the authoritarian side.
This could get nasty and ugly. And just wait until the first BAME person is tripwired by it and that's caught on camera.
Not even in gardens? That's getting close to full lockdown.
England will inevitably follow.
Imagine: six months of this. Enforced by the cops with troops in the background. This is dystopic.
What Sweden definitely got right was the need to make the measures sustainable for 12-24 months. Our wild oscillation from full lockdown to bullying people to get back in the office and eating out before heading back to full lockdown is not how to do it.
Yes, exactly. Start as you mean to go on. We are indeed edging closer to the Swedish model now (for however along), but we've been wobbling all over the shop.
Seems to me there are three ways of tackling corona.
New Zealand: total isolation, no outside visitors, quarantine an entire nation: this is only feasible for islands in remote oceans, tho, surely
The East Asian: test and trace, 100% masks, full control of citizens
The Swedish: soft, quasi lockdown from the start which can be consistently imposed for a year or two without shagging the economy
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
The fact Cummings beat you in the Referendum is the running sore you can't get over.
“Yes, we’re hiding in the cellar of our bombed-out house, eating rats to survive, and there's a battalion of Russians at the other end of the street, but how about the way the Fuhrer stuck it to the French back in 1940 eh?”
More like you and Scott are like the Japanese soldiers still fighting WWII long after the war had finished.
Scott in particular will be like Hiroo Onoda, years from now he will be rocking back and forth saying "but Dominic Cummings" again and again.
Well, put it this way. At some point Cummings' liabilities will outweigh his benefits to the government. Personally, i think that point came some months back. Clearly you disagree but do you see that such a point can come, and given sufficient time, almost certainly will?
The Conservatives should've tossed May overboard much earlier than they did. I used to have a delightful allegory of Con MPs being wolves, Lab MPs being sheep, and Lib Dem MPs being high and occasionally going mad with a kitchen knife.
The PCP showed a pathetic lack of judgement by backing a known incompetent and coward as PM.
Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
And how did that go for them?
I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
The point is more the impact on that group of people - and it will be quite a large group - who on the whole were following the rules despite feeling there was little personal risk to them in not doing so, on the grounds of "rules are rules" and some innate level of respect for the PM and the government communicating them.
Seeing Cummings, whilst knowingly infected and with the epidemic raging, brazenly break the rules that had only just been minted by a group of people including him, followed not only by no apology from him or from Johnson, but from the latter by a comment verging on praise - "He did what he thought in the best interests of himself and his family and I will not mark him down for that" - this would have caused them, quite reasonably, to relax their own compliance. That would have cost lives and thus is not a trivial matter.
Quite so. What I find most baffling about the Cummings episode is why they just didn't take it on the chin - a political misjudgment. Imagine if he'd said, promptly: "I'm really sorry. I meant well, but I now recognise that it was an error of judgement that broke the spirit, if not the letter, of the government's guidance. Many apologies." He could have survived with this. Surely even the Cummings fans on here would agree that this would have been a better political strategy? Nobody would still be going on about it, I suspect.
Yep. Keep his key man but make it clear to the public that he took the matter seriously. Johnson has the political capital and the comms skills to have done that. That he didn't tells us a lot about the Downing St set-up, the power dynamics there, and none of it is good.
And it tells us something about Cummings: a man who thinks he can't possibly be in the wrong, would never have any remorse, and has no place for an apology in his heart.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
Which is the whole point of the new rules. It’s not to eliminate the final hour, it’s to let people have dinner and a quiet drink - while shutting down the 2am meat factories that pass for bars in most city centres these days.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
And how did that go for them?
I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
The point is more the impact on that group of people - and it will be quite a large group - who on the whole were following the rules despite feeling there was little personal risk to them in not doing so, on the grounds of "rules are rules" and some innate level of respect for the PM and the government communicating them.
Seeing Cummings, whilst knowingly infected and with the epidemic raging, brazenly break the rules that had only just been minted by a group of people including him, followed not only by no apology from him or from Johnson, but from the latter by a comment verging on praise - "He did what he thought in the best interests of himself and his family and I will not mark him down for that" - this would have caused them, quite reasonably, to relax their own compliance. That would have cost lives and thus is not a trivial matter.
Quite so. What I find most baffling about the Cummings episode is why they just didn't take it on the chin - a political misjudgment. Imagine if he'd said, promptly: "I'm really sorry. I meant well, but I now recognise that it was an error of judgement that broke the spirit, if not the letter, of the government's guidance. Many apologies." He could have survived with this. Surely even the Cummings fans on here would agree that this would have been a better political strategy? Nobody would still be going on about it, I suspect.
Yep. Keep his key man but make it clear to the public that he took the matter seriously. Johnson has the political capital and the comms skills to have done that. That he didn't tells us a lot about the Downing St set-up, the power dynamics there, and none of it is good.
And it tells us something about Cummings: a man who thinks he can't possibly be in the wrong, would never have any remorse, and has no place for an apology in his heart.
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Not sure a 30 year slow grinding reduction in the quality of life is something to aim for, especially for a bad case of the sniffles.
Japan has the best growth in output per hour worked in the developed world over the past decade.
The problem they have is that they have a diminishing number of people of working age looking after an ever greater number of retirees.
That's something that Italy already struggles with, and that much of the EU will suffer from over the next few decades.
It is also an issue China is going to have to deal with in a decade's time and why I suspect the idea of a Chinese hegemony in the future are very premature. They're going to pay a very steep price for the one child policy eventually. Their fertility rate has long been closer to Italy's and Japan's than ours but their retirements haven't hit yet.
I think that is right. I do wonder whether Sunak used too much of his available emergency firepower in the initial support package. A slightly less generous, and better targeted, package for a longer period might have been a better idea.
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Yep. A couple of rounds of shots before home is quite common. Will drinkers have increased their pace to be sufficiently pissed by 10 to still go for it? And 6 months ago I could not have conceived of that being an important question for the economy.
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
I think that is right. I do wonder whether Sunak used too much of his available emergency firepower in the initial support package. A slightly less generous, and better targeted, package for a longer period might have been a better idea.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
In fact, 23:00 closing was never a consumer right - it was just the latest time that you could legally sell alcohol on the premises. (And 23:20, the 'drinking-up time', was the latest alcohol could be legally consumed). Other than that it was entirely at the landlord's discretion. If he wanted to close at eight - and chuck you out even though you'd brought a round one minute before - he was completely within his rights to do so. (This is something I hadn't appreciated when I'd had rows with barmen over the years.)
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Not sure a 30 year slow grinding reduction in the quality of life is something to aim for, especially for a bad case of the sniffles.
Japan has the best growth in output per hour worked in the developed world over the past decade.
The problem they have is that they have a diminishing number of people of working age looking after an ever greater number of retirees.
That's something that Italy already struggles with, and that much of the EU will suffer from over the next few decades.
It is also an issue China is going to have to deal with in a decade's time and why I suspect the idea of a Chinese hegemony in the future are very premature. They're going to pay a very steep price for the one child policy eventually. Their fertility rate has long been closer to Italy's and Japan's than ours but their retirements haven't hit yet.
That's very true: the ratio of workers to retirees has peaked in China, and the best of urbanisation is behind them.
The fact Cummings beat you in the Referendum is the running sore you can't get over.
“Yes, we’re hiding in the cellar of our bombed-out house, eating rats to survive, and there's a battalion of Russians at the other end of the street, but how about the way the Fuhrer stuck it to the French back in 1940 eh?”
More like you and Scott are like the Japanese soldiers still fighting WWII long after the war had finished.
Scott in particular will be like Hiroo Onoda, years from now he will be rocking back and forth saying "but Dominic Cummings" again and again.
Well, put it this way. At some point Cummings' liabilities will outweigh his benefits to the government. Personally, i think that point came some months back. Clearly you disagree but do you see that such a point can come, and given sufficient time, almost certainly will?
Yes. But when it comes it won't be due to Barnard Castle, it will be because some other story was the straw that broke the camels back.
I think that is right. I do wonder whether Sunak used too much of his available emergency firepower in the initial support package. A slightly less generous, and better targeted, package for a longer period might have been a better idea.
A further support package is inevitable. I suspect it will be slightly less generous this time though.
Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
And how did that go for them?
I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
The point is more the impact on that group of people - and it will be quite a large group - who on the whole were following the rules despite feeling there was little personal risk to them in not doing so, on the grounds of "rules are rules" and some innate level of respect for the PM and the government communicating them.
Seeing Cummings, whilst knowingly infected and with the epidemic raging, brazenly break the rules that had only just been minted by a group of people including him, followed not only by no apology from him or from Johnson, but from the latter by a comment verging on praise - "He did what he thought in the best interests of himself and his family and I will not mark him down for that" - this would have caused them, quite reasonably, to relax their own compliance. That would have cost lives and thus is not a trivial matter.
Quite so. What I find most baffling about the Cummings episode is why they just didn't take it on the chin - a political misjudgment. Imagine if he'd said, promptly: "I'm really sorry. I meant well, but I now recognise that it was an error of judgement that broke the spirit, if not the letter, of the government's guidance. Many apologies." He could have survived with this. Surely even the Cummings fans on here would agree that this would have been a better political strategy? Nobody would still be going on about it, I suspect.
Yep. Keep his key man but make it clear to the public that he took the matter seriously. Johnson has the political capital and the comms skills to have done that. That he didn't tells us a lot about the Downing St set-up, the power dynamics there, and none of it is good.
Sure, if we had a sane media, rather than one that behaves like a pack of rabid dogs. Their feeding frenzy was feral - the only way was to stare them down and tell them to fuck off.
If Cummings had an ounce of decency he would have resigned. If Johnson were a leader he would have sacked him. The feeding frenzy was for a reason. It was an early sign of the rot and smell of incompetence at the heart of Johnson's hopeless non-Conservative government. Your blind unquestioning loyalty to the Leader is touching or creepy, can't quite decide which.
Well, put it this way. At some point Cummings' liabilities will outweigh his benefits to the government. Personally, i think that point came some months back. Clearly you disagree but do you see that such a point can come, and given sufficient time, almost certainly will?
Phil has this completely backwards.
When the Cummings project has crashed and burned, and nobody including BoZo will admit to having supported it, Phil will still be banging on about how brilliant he was...
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
I'm going to parrot this until it's kicked around.
Is it possible at this stage to stop the clocks going back to GMT this year.
The Conservatives should've tossed May overboard much earlier than they did. I used to have a delightful allegory of Con MPs being wolves, Lab MPs being sheep, and Lib Dem MPs being high and occasionally going mad with a kitchen knife.
The PCP showed a pathetic lack of judgement by backing a known incompetent and coward as PM.
Fair. Today's Conservative MP may be a different animal.
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
And how did that go for them?
I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
The point is more the impact on that group of people - and it will be quite a large group - who on the whole were following the rules despite feeling there was little personal risk to them in not doing so, on the grounds of "rules are rules" and some innate level of respect for the PM and the government communicating them.
Seeing Cummings, whilst knowingly infected and with the epidemic raging, brazenly break the rules that had only just been minted by a group of people including him, followed not only by no apology from him or from Johnson, but from the latter by a comment verging on praise - "He did what he thought in the best interests of himself and his family and I will not mark him down for that" - this would have caused them, quite reasonably, to relax their own compliance. That would have cost lives and thus is not a trivial matter.
'Would have cost lives'? Except it didn't, because the lockdown worked perfectly and cases dropped in a straight line even after all the confected press furore. I've still got all of Malmesbury's charts that show it had no effect whatsoever on the efficacy of the lockdown.
Feel free to quote some hard infection data to contradict me - you won't find any.
That's a piece of nonsense as you well know. It's not possible to have hard data on a counterfactual. All you can do is apply logic and draw the conclusion that flows from it. In this case that the reduction in deaths due to lockdown would have been greater if it were not for the Cummings episode and its mishandling by Johnson. Can't quantify it, and not saying it is some sort of criminal "blood on their hands" matter, but that - it cost lives - is the harsh truth of this sorry affair.
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
If they end up closing the pubs as well...
Glasgow on an cold, wet, dank, early January evening can already feel like the capital of Hell, as the darkness closes in at 3pm. The only way to stay sane is the pub, and a dram.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Yep. A couple of rounds of shots before home is quite common. Will drinkers have increased their pace to be sufficiently pissed by 10 to still go for it? And 6 months ago I could not have conceived of that being an important question for the economy.
That’s exactly the point. It’s the couple of rounds of shots that cause the social distancing to break down. They want you to go to the pub and have dinner and a couple of beers. They don’t want groups going out to get pissed and forget how they’re supposed to behave.
Yes. It allowed viable businesses to get some deeply needed cash into their coffers that they'll really need to get through this. It should be done again at some point.
This second wave would have happened even without EOTHO but without it new restrictions would be much tougher on much weaker businesses.
Yes. It allowed viable businesses to get some deeply needed cash into their coffers that they'll really need to get through this. It should be done again at some point.
This second wave would have happened even without EOTHO but without it new restrictions would be much tougher on much weaker businesses.
Why on Earth should it be done again? We don't want to encourage people out.
The Scottish and English governments have effectively cancelled Christmas (and Hogmanay up north).
When this sinks in, I wonder if the polls will finally and significantly shift. I can see Labour ahead quite soon. Surely. And maybe even the impervious Nats will take a hit.
Worth considering there may be no good options, for politicians, or the public. More a case of trying to opt for the least worst outcome. People expecting a law passed to make a disease go away are going to be disappointed.
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
As long as it's different to what England is doing her base will lap it up.
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Yep. A couple of rounds of shots before home is quite common. Will drinkers have increased their pace to be sufficiently pissed by 10 to still go for it? And 6 months ago I could not have conceived of that being an important question for the economy.
Drinkers will just start earlier and drink after 10 in private groups . Whatever you think of covdi -19 this has to be the worst instruction ever ! Kill off pubs but have no effect on covid -19 - yeah great one useless Boris
The Scottish and English governments have effectively cancelled Christmas (and Hogmanay up north).
When this sinks in, I wonder if the polls will finally and significantly shift. I can see Labour ahead quite soon. Surely. And maybe even the impervious Nats will take a hit.
I imagine if Boris had announced this, the media would be at this very second pummelling him for being a total scrooge and cancelling Christmas, think of the kids, think of the grand parents etc. The front pages of tomorrow papers would have him as the Grinch.
For what its worth, I actually think it is the right policy.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
Er, it will be the final hour now, won't it? 10-11. That is my point.
I'm not a stranger to pubs, I am aware the licensing laws were liberalised many years ago.
Well the final hour now (in England) will be 9-10pm, but perhaps I am accusing you unfairly. I do recognise that you are generally expert on the sector.
It comes from frustration with PBers general knowledge about pubs – I recall several threadettes passim based on the entirely false premise that pubs normally close at 11pm (perhaps these PBers all live in the sticks, or never actually attend pubs at all?)
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
As long as it's different to what England is doing her base will lap it up.
Unless England suffers no worse a second wave than Scotland, and England has a laxer Lockdown 2.0
That will annoy Scottish voters, who will ask why they needed to be barred from visiting friends when the English were allowed.
Sturgeon has a very large, reliable hardcore vote - 30-35%? But she's not invulnerable.
That said, I sadly expect England to follow these harsher rules anyway, in a few weeks.
Yes. It allowed viable businesses to get some deeply needed cash into their coffers that they'll really need to get through this. It should be done again at some point.
This second wave would have happened even without EOTHO but without it new restrictions would be much tougher on much weaker businesses.
Why on Earth should it be done again? We don't want to encourage people out.
I said at some point, not now.
If I was Chancellor then I would suggest that it be said in the budget that, virus-permitting, it would be done for three months next year, lets say as an example from April to June. That would provide much needed light at the end of the tunnel for this damned virus and give struggling businesses and their owners and customers a reason to knuckle down and get through this and to the other side.
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
As long as it's different to what England is doing her base will lap it up.
I assume you take the same view of the Welsh and NI devolved administrations, each of which have also devised their own individual responses.
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
As long as it's different to what England is doing her base will lap it up.
Unless England suffers no worse a second wave than Scotland, and England has a laxer Lockdown 2.0
That will annoy Scottish voters, who will ask why they needed to be barred from visiting friends when the English were allowed.
Sturgeon has a very large, reliable hardcore vote - 30-35%? But she's not invulnerable.
That said, I sadly expect England to follow these harsher rules anyway, in a few weeks.
Yes it is not the 45% Nat hardcore this will annoy (bar a few hardcore libertarians), it is the 10% of 2014 No now lean Yes voters if they cannot see friends and family in other households while those in England still can provided they stick to the rule of 6, that is good news for Unionists
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Not sure a 30 year slow grinding reduction in the quality of life is something to aim for, especially for a bad case of the sniffles.
Japan has the best growth in output per hour worked in the developed world over the past decade.
The problem they have is that they have a diminishing number of people of working age looking after an ever greater number of retirees.
That's something that Italy already struggles with, and that much of the EU will suffer from over the next few decades.
I've never heard of the measure "output per hour worked" before if I'm honest. I'm not 100% sure what it is.
But maybe not too surprising as the young workers there are flogging themselves to death and have no time for children of their own to support both the large number of old people and the national debt there.
I'm now having a late lunch in a small square in Bergamo, where it all started, in Europe at least. As you might expect, mask wearing in the streets is very common, indeed amongst older people near universal.
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Is that going to happen in the Eurozone?
Not sure the Germans will be happy with that.
The ECB is currently buying €850bn of Eurozone government debt, so it's happening now.
By my maths that is 4.5% of Eurozone government debt which is nothing like all the debt or half the debt.
I don't think that's correct. Total Eurozone governent debt is - what - €11-11.5 trillion? So this is about 7% of outstanding debt.
But that wasn't the purpose. The purpose was to make sure there was a buyer for the net issuance of Eurozone government debt this year.
You're right, I used the wrong GDP figure in my maths.
But while it is 7% of outstanding debt don't forget that they, like us, are running major deficits this year. So it will take a lot more than that to really eat into the debt figures.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
Er, it will be the final hour now, won't it? 10-11. That is my point.
I'm not a stranger to pubs, I am aware the licensing laws were liberalised many years ago.
Well the final hour now (in England) will be 9-10pm, but perhaps I am accusing you unfairly. I do recognise that you are generally expert on the sector.
It comes from frustration with PBers general knowledge about pubs – I recall several threadettes passim based on the entirely false premise that pubs normally close at 11pm (perhaps these PBers all live in the sticks, or never actually attend pubs at all?)
Fair enough. My point is that people are very used to drinking when they like now, since the laws were liberalised. If chucking out time is 10 that means last orders will be 9.30. It's going to be distinctly odd and not welcomed.
Meanwhile over in Wales the publicans have an extra final hour of business to try and make a profit. That's gonna annoy English publicans.
It will also be interesting to see how this effects pubs on the Anglo-Welsh border. There will be people running across the River Wye at Tintern to get an extra hour of boozing.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
Er, it will be the final hour now, won't it? 10-11. That is my point.
I'm not a stranger to pubs, I am aware the licensing laws were liberalised many years ago.
Well the final hour now (in England) will be 9-10pm, but perhaps I am accusing you unfairly. I do recognise that you are generally expert on the sector.
It comes from frustration with PBers general knowledge about pubs – I recall several threadettes passim based on the entirely false premise that pubs normally close at 11pm (perhaps these PBers all live in the sticks, or never actually attend pubs at all?)
Fair enough. My point is that people are very used to drinking when they like now, since the laws were liberalised. If chucking out time is 10 that means last orders will be 9.30. It's going to be distinctly odd and not welcomed.
Meanwhile over in Wales the publicans have an extra final hour of business to try and make a profit. That's gonna annoy English publicans.
It will also be interesting to see how this effects pubs on the Anglo-Welsh border. There will be people running across the River Wye at Tintern to get an extra hour of boozing.
Shutting pubs at 10 as opposed to 11 makes no sense at all . How exactly will this help stopping a virus ? Just destroys pub life in England .Maybe its a puritans dream but its makes no sense to stopping covid -19. Its true though a lot who post on here would rarely visit pubs so have no knowledge .
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
Yes, in a crowded field, that is possibly the most confusing corona guidance yet, from any of the UK's four governments.
If anything Sturgeon has provided a bit of cover for Boris against those which want no lockdown. With Scotland going further he at least looks more moderate at the moment.
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
TOOOOOO CONFUSING....
No, it's from Nicola, it's 100% crystal clear. When Boris announces these same restrictions next week they will suddenly become impossible to understand and have 17 million loopholes.
Worth considering there may be no good options, for politicians, or the public. More a case of trying to opt for the least worst outcome. People expecting a law passed to make a disease go away are going to be disappointed.
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
To answer your questions: 1) A household, plus one person (or a single parent and their children) living alone; 2) No, assuming your wife lives with you - you do not live alone; 3) Yes, if your mother-in-law lives alone.
Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
And how did that go for them?
I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
The point is more the impact on that group of people - and it will be quite a large group - who on the whole were following the rules despite feeling there was little personal risk to them in not doing so, on the grounds of "rules are rules" and some innate level of respect for the PM and the government communicating them.
Seeing Cummings, whilst knowingly infected and with the epidemic raging, brazenly break the rules that had only just been minted by a group of people including him, followed not only by no apology from him or from Johnson, but from the latter by a comment verging on praise - "He did what he thought in the best interests of himself and his family and I will not mark him down for that" - this would have caused them, quite reasonably, to relax their own compliance. That would have cost lives and thus is not a trivial matter.
Quite so. What I find most baffling about the Cummings episode is why they just didn't take it on the chin - a political misjudgment. Imagine if he'd said, promptly: "I'm really sorry. I meant well, but I now recognise that it was an error of judgement that broke the spirit, if not the letter, of the government's guidance. Many apologies." He could have survived with this. Surely even the Cummings fans on here would agree that this would have been a better political strategy? Nobody would still be going on about it, I suspect.
Yep. Keep his key man but make it clear to the public that he took the matter seriously. Johnson has the political capital and the comms skills to have done that. That he didn't tells us a lot about the Downing St set-up, the power dynamics there, and none of it is good.
Sure, if we had a sane media, rather than one that behaves like a pack of rabid dogs. Their feeding frenzy was feral - the only way was to stare them down and tell them to fuck off.
Fails the logic test. The requirement (I'm saying) was an apology/reprimand followed by the staring down of the inevitable media frenzy for a resignation/firing. This gives the best of both worlds. Keeps his boy. But does not give the impression that he doesn't give a fuck. Skipping the 1st bit made the 2nd bit harder - yet he still managed it. Ergo he could have done what I'm suggesting he should have done. We all know why he didn't and it was not to win a much needed victory over a rabid media. It was because Cummings' ego wouldn't allow it, and Cummings is the boss, because Johnson cannot function as PM without him. This is unprecedented weakness in a PM and it is not, in anyone's book, a healthy situation.
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Is that going to happen in the Eurozone?
Not sure the Germans will be happy with that.
The ECB is currently buying €850bn of Eurozone government debt, so it's happening now.
By my maths that is 4.5% of Eurozone government debt which is nothing like all the debt or half the debt.
I don't think that's correct. Total Eurozone governent debt is - what - €11-11.5 trillion? So this is about 7% of outstanding debt.
But that wasn't the purpose. The purpose was to make sure there was a buyer for the net issuance of Eurozone government debt this year.
You're right, I used the wrong GDP figure in my maths.
But while it is 7% of outstanding debt don't forget that they, like us, are running major deficits this year. So it will take a lot more than that to really eat into the debt figures.
Sure.
I'm not suggesting the ECB (or the BOE or whoever) is just going to go out and buy all of Eurozone government debt.
I'm suggesting that at every point, monetization of debt is going to be the easier political path to tread. We saw it during the Eurozone crisis. We're seeing it during the CV19 one.
Once you go down the path of letting the central bank buy up debt, as the US is also now proving, then it's very hard to get off it.
Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
Once again IT'S NOT A FINAL HOUR – the laws preventing pubs opening beyond 11pm were removed years ago. Fifteen years ago.
Why do PBers repeat this fiction that pubs have to close at 11pm?
Er, it will be the final hour now, won't it? 10-11. That is my point.
I'm not a stranger to pubs, I am aware the licensing laws were liberalised many years ago.
Well the final hour now (in England) will be 9-10pm, but perhaps I am accusing you unfairly. I do recognise that you are generally expert on the sector.
It comes from frustration with PBers general knowledge about pubs – I recall several threadettes passim based on the entirely false premise that pubs normally close at 11pm (perhaps these PBers all live in the sticks, or never actually attend pubs at all?)
Fair enough. My point is that people are very used to drinking when they like now, since the laws were liberalised. If chucking out time is 10 that means last orders will be 9.30. It's going to be distinctly odd and not welcomed.
Meanwhile over in Wales the publicans have an extra final hour of business to try and make a profit. That's gonna annoy English publicans.
It will also be interesting to see how this effects pubs on the Anglo-Welsh border. There will be people running across the River Wye at Tintern to get an extra hour of boozing.
That's very true – there are indeed a few border towns / villages where the frontier runs through the middle of the centre.
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Not sure a 30 year slow grinding reduction in the quality of life is something to aim for, especially for a bad case of the sniffles.
Japan has the best growth in output per hour worked in the developed world over the past decade.
The problem they have is that they have a diminishing number of people of working age looking after an ever greater number of retirees.
That's something that Italy already struggles with, and that much of the EU will suffer from over the next few decades.
I've never heard of the measure "output per hour worked" before if I'm honest. I'm not 100% sure what it is.
But maybe not too surprising as the young workers there are flogging themselves to death and have no time for children of their own to support both the large number of old people and the national debt there.
A more usual economic term for output per hour worked is “productivity”.
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
TOOOOOO CONFUSING....
No, it's from Nicola, it's 100% crystal clear. When Boris announces these same restrictions next week they will suddenly become impossible to understand and have 17 million loopholes.
You missed the bit about some edge case, like an autistic kid has two dads, neither of which live with the mother and he can't see both for Christmas, and where the disgustingly evil Boris is now going to cause this particular family such horrendous hardship they have become suicidal.
What is an extended household? Can I go to the house of my daughter and her partner? Can my wife still take her mum to church and help her in with anything she buys whilst out?
To answer your questions: 1) A household, plus one person (or a single parent and their children) living alone; 2) No, assuming your wife lives with you - you do not live alone; 3) Yes, if your mother-in-law lives alone.
I admire your confidence. No doubt the regulations will be published sometime. Although publishing laws before they come into force is so last year, really.
Predictions of a V-shape recovery looking unlikely
Boris just killed it.
Also I just remembered you wanted predictions, this is what we had pencilled in before July figures came out:
July 7.1% August 7.2% September 2.1%
Final Q -1.3%
Economy compared to Feb - 96.1%
New projections
July 6.6% (actual) August 7.7% September 0.9%
Final Q -0.8%
Economy compared to Feb - 95.1%
Obviously this is all horribly out of date given the latest measures. 😭
A second wave was always likely to sweep away your optimism. Sadly. Respiratory viruses have second waves.
My initial predictions were for a GDP loss of 10-15% over the year. 20% if the health service went into meltdown.
10% looks about right, at the mo. But we may bounce back vigorously next year.
The government's incompetence has led to the second wave. Rubbish quarantine policy, rubbish isolation policy and halting of testing expansion in July is why wer are where we are. All of those are domestic issues. The second wave is on Boris and and the c***.
Two weeks and Boris will be back to announce this as a new restriction for England.
My daughter was going to be staying with a friend in Edinburgh this weekend. She really needs social contact right now. And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
This rule is particularly tough, given the different Scots climate. Down south it is often mild enough to mingle outside of an evening.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Plus its dark here very early already, and that's before the clocks go back. I think Nicola is going to have a very hard time enforcing this, its going to be seriously unpopular.
As long as it's different to what England is doing her base will lap it up.
I assume you take the same view of the Welsh and NI devolved administrations, each of which have also devised their own individual responses.
The whole point is to be different to justify their existence. If not, why have them in the first place?
Predictions of a V-shape recovery looking unlikely
Boris just killed it.
Also I just remembered you wanted predictions, this is what we had pencilled in before July figures came out:
July 7.1% August 7.2% September 2.1%
Final Q -1.3%
Economy compared to Feb - 96.1%
New projections
July 6.6% (actual) August 7.7% September 0.9%
Final Q -0.8%
Economy compared to Feb - 95.1%
Obviously this is all horribly out of date given the latest measures. 😭
A second wave was always likely to sweep away your optimism. Sadly. Respiratory viruses have second waves.
My initial predictions were for a GDP loss of 10-15% over the year. 20% if the health service went into meltdown.
10% looks about right, at the mo. But we may bounce back vigorously next year.
The government's incompetence has led to the second wave. Rubbish quarantine policy, rubbish isolation policy and halting of testing expansion in July is why wer are where we are. All of those are domestic issues. The second wave is on Boris and and the c***.
So all the other countries in Europe having a second wave?
France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said. .................... Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.
“We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added. .........................
Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme. .............
“I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist. .........................“
European governments are going to end up with debts like Japan. ~200% of GDP
And just like Japan, all the debt will be owed to the Central Bank.
Not sure a 30 year slow grinding reduction in the quality of life is something to aim for, especially for a bad case of the sniffles.
Japan has the best growth in output per hour worked in the developed world over the past decade.
The problem they have is that they have a diminishing number of people of working age looking after an ever greater number of retirees.
That's something that Italy already struggles with, and that much of the EU will suffer from over the next few decades.
I've never heard of the measure "output per hour worked" before if I'm honest. I'm not 100% sure what it is.
But maybe not too surprising as the young workers there are flogging themselves to death and have no time for children of their own to support both the large number of old people and the national debt there.
The Japanese government spends next to nothing on supporting the national debt as (1) half all JGBs are owned by the BOJ (which remits interest payments back to the government), and (2) 10 year JGB yields at 0.4%. In other words, the net debt service of the Japanese government is lower than in the UK.
Japan's problem is simple:
- low total fertility rate - high life expectancy
That combination is something that pretty much all developed world governments have to deal with.
Banning people from seeing each other is incredibly draconian. It's arguably acceptable as an emergency public health measure, though you can make the case that it's not right for a democratic government to forbid it by law, rather than advise it, but after six months it's a massive failure for a government to have to resort to it again.
Absolutely massive failure.
By any sane measure the situation is worse now in Scotland than anywhere else in Britain or Ireland. How long can the SNP retain the confidence of the Scottish public?
Predictions of a V-shape recovery looking unlikely
Boris just killed it.
Also I just remembered you wanted predictions, this is what we had pencilled in before July figures came out:
July 7.1% August 7.2% September 2.1%
Final Q -1.3%
Economy compared to Feb - 96.1%
New projections
July 6.6% (actual) August 7.7% September 0.9%
Final Q -0.8%
Economy compared to Feb - 95.1%
Obviously this is all horribly out of date given the latest measures. 😭
A second wave was always likely to sweep away your optimism. Sadly. Respiratory viruses have second waves.
My initial predictions were for a GDP loss of 10-15% over the year. 20% if the health service went into meltdown.
10% looks about right, at the mo. But we may bounce back vigorously next year.
The government's incompetence has led to the second wave. Rubbish quarantine policy, rubbish isolation policy and halting of testing expansion in July is why wer are where we are. All of those are domestic issues. The second wave is on Boris and and the c***.
So all the other countries in Europe having a second wave?
They aren't island nations.
Also they made the same mistakes and are just as incompetent. France especially so.
Comments
Seems to me there are three ways of tackling corona.
New Zealand: total isolation, no outside visitors, quarantine an entire nation: this is only feasible for islands in remote oceans, tho, surely
The East Asian: test and trace, 100% masks, full control of citizens
The Swedish: soft, quasi lockdown from the start which can be consistently imposed for a year or two without shagging the economy
And its my birthday next week. Hey ho.
The Conservatives should've tossed May overboard much earlier than they did. I used to have a delightful allegory of Con MPs being wolves, Lab MPs being sheep, and Lib Dem MPs being high and occasionally going mad with a kitchen knife.
The PCP showed a pathetic lack of judgement by backing a known incompetent and coward as PM.
I'm not a stranger to pubs, I am aware the licensing laws were liberalised many years ago.
Sturgeon is a politician at the top of her game.
And BoZo isn't.
Which is worse.
I think that is right. I do wonder whether Sunak used too much of his available emergency firepower in the initial support package. A slightly less generous, and better targeted, package for a longer period might have been a better idea.
In a hard Scottish winter you generally need to be indoors.
Will drinkers have increased their pace to be sufficiently pissed by 10 to still go for it?
And 6 months ago I could not have conceived of that being an important question for the economy.
& here we've been under such house & garden restrictions for 5 of the last 7 weeks.
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1308400564296978432
When the Cummings project has crashed and burned, and nobody including BoZo will admit to having supported it, Phil will still be banging on about how brilliant he was...
Is it possible at this stage to stop the clocks going back to GMT this year.
So in hindsight, no I don't believe it was a good idea. Is this a rare moment of agreement between you and I?
Glasgow on an cold, wet, dank, early January evening can already feel like the capital of Hell, as the darkness closes in at 3pm. The only way to stay sane is the pub, and a dram.
Fuck me. This winter is going to SUCK
Edit: Rival NE correspondent @Gallowgate scooped me as per.
This second wave would have happened even without EOTHO but without it new restrictions would be much tougher on much weaker businesses.
When this sinks in, I wonder if the polls will finally and significantly shift. I can see Labour ahead quite soon. Surely. And maybe even the impervious Nats will take a hit.
But that wasn't the purpose. The purpose was to make sure there was a buyer for the net issuance of Eurozone government debt this year.
For what its worth, I actually think it is the right policy.
It comes from frustration with PBers general knowledge about pubs – I recall several threadettes passim based on the entirely false premise that pubs normally close at 11pm (perhaps these PBers all live in the sticks, or never actually attend pubs at all?)
That will annoy Scottish voters, who will ask why they needed to be barred from visiting friends when the English were allowed.
Sturgeon has a very large, reliable hardcore vote - 30-35%? But she's not invulnerable.
That said, I sadly expect England to follow these harsher rules anyway, in a few weeks.
If I was Chancellor then I would suggest that it be said in the budget that, virus-permitting, it would be done for three months next year, lets say as an example from April to June. That would provide much needed light at the end of the tunnel for this damned virus and give struggling businesses and their owners and customers a reason to knuckle down and get through this and to the other side.
But maybe not too surprising as the young workers there are flogging themselves to death and have no time for children of their own to support both the large number of old people and the national debt there.
More impressively, the saleswomen actually know about wine.
https://twitter.com/joyce_karam/status/1308394748659593222?s=21
But while it is 7% of outstanding debt don't forget that they, like us, are running major deficits this year. So it will take a lot more than that to really eat into the debt figures.
Meanwhile over in Wales the publicans have an extra final hour of business to try and make a profit. That's gonna annoy English publicans.
It will also be interesting to see how this effects pubs on the Anglo-Welsh border. There will be people running across the River Wye at Tintern to get an extra hour of boozing.
Also I just remembered you wanted predictions, this is what we had pencilled in before July figures came out:
July 7.1%
August 7.2%
September 2.1%
Final Q -1.3%
Economy compared to Feb - 96.1%
New projections
July 6.6% (actual)
August 7.7%
September 0.9%
Final Q -0.8%
Economy compared to Feb - 95.1%
Obviously this is all horribly out of date given the latest measures. 😭
1) A household, plus one person (or a single parent and their children) living alone;
2) No, assuming your wife lives with you - you do not live alone;
3) Yes, if your mother-in-law lives alone.
I'm not suggesting the ECB (or the BOE or whoever) is just going to go out and buy all of Eurozone government debt.
I'm suggesting that at every point, monetization of debt is going to be the easier political path to tread. We saw it during the Eurozone crisis. We're seeing it during the CV19 one.
Once you go down the path of letting the central bank buy up debt, as the US is also now proving, then it's very hard to get off it.
My initial predictions were for a GDP loss of 10-15% over the year. 20% if the health service went into meltdown.
10% looks about right, at the mo. But we may bounce back vigorously next year.
Japan's problem is simple:
- low total fertility rate
- high life expectancy
That combination is something that pretty much all developed world governments have to deal with.
Absolutely massive failure.
By any sane measure the situation is worse now in Scotland than anywhere else in Britain or Ireland. How long can the SNP retain the confidence of the Scottish public?
Also they made the same mistakes and are just as incompetent. France especially so.