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A problem about enforcement remains Johnson’s failure to do anything about the Cummings lockdown bre

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 22 in General
A problem about enforcement remains Johnson’s failure to do anything about the Cummings lockdown breach – politicalbetting.com

Boris Johnson: "There is nothing more frustrating for the vast majority who do comply, the law-abiding majority, than the sight of a few brazenly defying the rules". Quite right. pic.twitter.com/XziYIlMvAO

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Well my elderly folks, who had to shield, just phoned me to say this means they can go away this winter, right?

    I had to say at the moment, yes, but, reality strikes, foreign travel will more than likely be restricted.
  • Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.
  • Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
  • What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,406

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    Its obviously a salami-slice process, with the failure to control the 'R' being a justification for it.
  • What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?

    Chrome.
  • On topic, I need an eye test soon, if I can't get a slot with an opticians, can be people suggest local alternatives near Sheffield, I don't fancy driving to Barnard Castle.
  • What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?

    Chrome.
    I'm a Safari fan myself, Chrome is poor for battery on macOS
  • For web dev though, I use Chrome/Edge
  • What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?

    Chrome.
    I'm a Safari fan myself, Chrome is poor for battery on macOS
    Chrome works fine on my MacBook battery.
  • Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    The change of tone matters far more than any actual restriction announced today.

    If people take this more seriously it should reduce R once more. It won't take much to bring R down to below 1 again as it was until recently.

    Incidentally I went to Morrison's over the weekend and could see that social distancing seemed to have already become to be taken more seriously once more as well as the mask wearing. At the entrance there was a distanced queuing system to get in as there was during lockdown rather than a free for all as there had been until recently. Throughout as well people seemed to be behaving better again.

    I think complacency had set in. If this acts as a wake up call it ought to be enough.
  • DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928
    edited September 22

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
  • 'Kin hell, Professor Sikora is worse than Sion Simon.



    New PB rule, anyone who posts a Karol Sikora tweet on PB to support their argument is likely to be mocked mercilessly
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140

    DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
    And how did that go for them?

    I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
  • What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?

    Chrome.
    I'm a Safari fan myself, Chrome is poor for battery on macOS
    Chrome works fine on my MacBook battery.
    Battery life is better on Safari, a couple of hours more from my experience. Chrome does work fine, I do prefer Safari as a general-purpose browser.

    https://mjtsai.com/blog/2020/04/17/chrome-vs-safari-energy-use-and-compatibility/
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    While I am not denying it was a stupid thing for him to have done, banging on about it is surely doing more harm than good by making people distrust the government's message.
    But it isn't really about whether an opposition party "bangs on about it". The fact is that this these are dots people in the real world join - whether or not a Labour peer tweets about it is irrelevant.

    There can be few people in the country who hear, "There is nothing more frustrating for the vast majority who do comply, the law-abiding majority, than the sight of a few brazenly defying the rules" without thinking of Dominic Cumming and getting annoyed. That's simply a fundamental problem inherent in not having lanced the boil at the time - a bed Johnson made and must lie in.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,015
    It's amazing the number of things that you think must already have been announced but apparently haven't been. Masks in taxis and table service only feels a bit deja vu?
  • FPT
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course non-league football is shafted. So are most team sports without access to TV deals.

    Since this morning I've been working out how many EFL clubs are in Tory held areas/marginals seats.

    I reckon if it is a purely political decision, Boris Johnson gives a bailout to the EFL clubs.
    You don't think your average non-fan will think millionaires getting special treatment?
    Even though that is not the case.
    I suspect any EFL bailout will come with lots of strings attached, like salaries capped, no paid transfers until the bailout is paid or a 1 for 1 like in Spain, so if you spend x amount on a transfer you must allow pay x amount back to the government.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    While I am not denying it was a stupid thing for him to have done, banging on about it is surely doing more harm than good by making people distrust the government's message.
    Shall we forget it ever happened?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    While I am not denying it was a stupid thing for him to have done, banging on about it is surely doing more harm than good by making people distrust the government's message.
    Shall we forget it ever happened?
    S**t happens. Banging on about fripperies like this just shows you've got nothing new or relevant to complain about.
  • On topic, Johnson's statement included some line about how the vast majority who obey the rules are understandably angry about the minority who don't, and I couldn't hear the rest of what he said because it was drowned out by a the string of obscenities on my part. Either he's trolling the public, or he really does think that rules are only for the little people. The Cummings episode remains a problem for the government when it comes to achieving compliance, I think for many of us we are now thinking "what can I get away with" and not "what should I do" .
  • FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course non-league football is shafted. So are most team sports without access to TV deals.

    Since this morning I've been working out how many EFL clubs are in Tory held areas/marginals seats.

    I reckon if it is a purely political decision, Boris Johnson gives a bailout to the EFL clubs.
    You don't think your average non-fan will think millionaires getting special treatment?
    Even though that is not the case.
    I suspect any EFL bailout will come with lots of strings attached, like salaries capped, no paid transfers until the bailout is paid or a 1 for 1 like in Spain, so if you spend x amount on a transfer you must allow pay x amount back to the government.
    Big losers out if that, the agents...i think we can all get behind that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 22
    To be fair to Cummings though he only possibly broke the rules regarding travel and now you can still travel across the country whereever you like, he did not hold a house party or gathering with large numbers of people so he can probably still get away with it for now.

    If however new travel restrictions are introduced again within the UK ie do not travel beyond your city, town or village, then Cummings will be in trouble as the government will find it difficult to enforce with him still there
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887
    edited September 22

    Shall we forget it ever happened?

    BoZo still could, and should, sack him.

    It remains a running sore

    EDIT: To quote a doctor who was treating me, if there's pus about, get it out.

    Cummings is the pus in this government.
  • LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course non-league football is shafted. So are most team sports without access to TV deals.

    Since this morning I've been working out how many EFL clubs are in Tory held areas/marginals seats.

    I reckon if it is a purely political decision, Boris Johnson gives a bailout to the EFL clubs.
    You don't think your average non-fan will think millionaires getting special treatment?
    Even though that is not the case.
    I suspect any EFL bailout will come with lots of strings attached, like salaries capped, no paid transfers until the bailout is paid or a 1 for 1 like in Spain, so if you spend x amount on a transfer you must allow pay x amount back to the government.
    Fair enough. How do they service their debts though?
    A lot have debts bigger than any comparable company would bear. Having captive incomes from season tickets and a permanent knowledge a rich bloke will step in.
  • rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    And the government are still not taking action on foreign travel...Its March all over again.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Shall we forget it ever happened?

    BoZo still could, and should, sack him.

    It remains a running sore
    The fact Cummings beat you in the Referendum is the running sore you can't get over.
  • LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    7 unis already have outbreaks.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 250

    'Kin hell, Professor Sikora is worse than Sion Simon.



    New PB rule, anyone who posts a Karol Sikora tweet on PB to support their argument is likely to be mocked mercilessly
    Thing is, when the counterargument was Piers Morgan and much of the internet advocating people be sealed in their homes indefinitely, Sikora seemed reasonable as a voice of no panic.

    That sheen wore off pretty quickly when it became clear that he didn't have a clue what he was on about. It didn't stop the daytime TV shows from continuing to book him for months though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.

    The fishing industry employs about 12,000 people in the UK.

    It deserves respect and to not be ignored.

    But it's also a miniscule part of the British economy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    While I am not denying it was a stupid thing for him to have done, banging on about it is surely doing more harm than good by making people distrust the government's message.
    Shall we forget it ever happened?
    S**t happens. Banging on about fripperies like this just shows you've got nothing new or relevant to complain about.
    But it wasn't a frippery. It is still having repercussions, as to how people behave today.

    Anyway LauraK. swooning over Boris' speech on R4 WATO. I have to say it wasn't half bad, if he could only avoid apologising for implementing life saving precautions.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    Have to agree on the incoming travellers bit. It's not like forcibly quarantining them, or barring them, is going to destroy the tourist industry, it is already destroyed.

    So why not just close the airports to most flights, send the police to escort people home, do what the Chinese did - very effectively.

    It's so inept it is bizarre. I cannot work it out.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 250

    LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    This is not far from me. Headingley has been noticeably busier with students over the weekend.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
  • RH1992 said:

    'Kin hell, Professor Sikora is worse than Sion Simon.



    New PB rule, anyone who posts a Karol Sikora tweet on PB to support their argument is likely to be mocked mercilessly
    Thing is, when the counterargument was Piers Morgan and much of the internet advocating people be sealed in their homes indefinitely, Sikora seemed reasonable as a voice of no panic.

    That sheen wore off pretty quickly when it became clear that he didn't have a clue what he was on about. It didn't stop the daytime TV shows from continuing to book him for months though.
    Having nuanced arguments doesn't make for good tv (in the eyes of tv producers)...hence having too opposing absolutists.

    When in fact YouTube channels are increasingly showing it is actually very popular to hear nuanced detailed fact based arguments.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    And the government are still not taking action on foreign travel...Its March all over again.
    They are, if you go to France, Spain, the USA etc you have to quarantine at the moment
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    RH1992 said:

    'Kin hell, Professor Sikora is worse than Sion Simon.



    New PB rule, anyone who posts a Karol Sikora tweet on PB to support their argument is likely to be mocked mercilessly
    Thing is, when the counterargument was Piers Morgan and much of the internet advocating people be sealed in their homes indefinitely, Sikora seemed reasonable as a voice of no panic.

    That sheen wore off pretty quickly when it became clear that he didn't have a clue what he was on about. It didn't stop the daytime TV shows from continuing to book him for months though.
    The media come out of this year worse than just about anyone else.

    They’re the one group whose behaviour comes across as actively malicious in dealing with the pandemic.
  • dixiedean said:

    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.

    Awful though it is for people working in the wedding industry - and I absolutely don't want to minimise it on the individual employee level - is this sort of thing really the big issue at the moment on the level of the macro-economy?

    Weddings will (God willing) recommence, probably in greater numbers due to pent-up demand, later in 2021. So there will actually be strong demand. I do not know the detailed economics of the wedding industry, but are costs of entry so high that there won't essentially be a V-shaped recovery?

    The businesses we want to worry about at the national level are businesses where demand won't pick up and/or the costs of entry are high. These won't have a V-shaped recovery, and are much more worrying.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887
    The impact of Cummings is revealed by just how touchy the fanbois are about it.

    They know how bad it is...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,207
    I'm not sure about the logic of reducing the maximum attendance at weddings but not funerals. I'd have thought the average age of those at funerals is considerably higher.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Are we really still doing this?

    Yes, listen to all those rozzers who had deal with plebs dealing with other lockdown bandits, they had to listen to people using the Cummings defence.
    And how did that go for them?

    I mean, if people want to disregard the rules and risk catching a potentially fatal disease because Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others I am very tempted to encourage them to go ahead. After all, what's the worst that could happen?
    Bloody hell. Are Nigerian email scams also OK because only the stupid and greedy fall for them?

    "Dominic Cumming can be as stupid at some times as he is clever at others" is sleight of hand. I'll go with stupid and add vain, conceited and overrated and above all - the most damning possible charge for a proxy PM - fundamentally lacking in judgement.
  • Sandpit said:

    RH1992 said:

    'Kin hell, Professor Sikora is worse than Sion Simon.



    New PB rule, anyone who posts a Karol Sikora tweet on PB to support their argument is likely to be mocked mercilessly
    Thing is, when the counterargument was Piers Morgan and much of the internet advocating people be sealed in their homes indefinitely, Sikora seemed reasonable as a voice of no panic.

    That sheen wore off pretty quickly when it became clear that he didn't have a clue what he was on about. It didn't stop the daytime TV shows from continuing to book him for months though.
    The media come out of this year worse than just about anyone else.

    They’re the one group whose behaviour comes across as actively malicious in dealing with the pandemic.
    First response to any announcement of restrictions, find every possible way in which they can be circumvented.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,672

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.

    Awful though it is for people working in the wedding industry - and I absolutely don't want to minimise it on the individual employee level - is this sort of thing really the big issue at the moment on the level of the macro-economy?

    Weddings will (God willing) recommence, probably in greater numbers due to pent-up demand, later in 2021. So there will actually be strong demand. I do not know the detailed economics of the wedding industry, but are costs of entry so high that there won't essentially be a V-shaped recovery?

    The businesses we want to worry about at the national level are businesses where demand won't pick up and/or the costs of entry are high. These won't have a V-shaped recovery, and are much more worrying.
    Given that the wedding industry seems to work on the "its a wedding, so 3x the price model".....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,565
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    LadyG said:

    Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.

    I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...

    --AS
    I have thought about the arithmetic. I have thought about the arithmetic of an extended lockdown - quasi or severe - for six months. I have thought about the people who will die of undiagnosed cancers, the millions with intensified mental health problems, the huge uptick in suicides, the addicts and drunks who will relapse from despair, the centres of our cities hollowed out for good.

    I have thought about all this and I am unpersuaded that a second lockdown will, on balance, be a benefit to the nation.

    I really don't see why this is complex.

    You implement a consistent set of measures that minimise R, without shutting down economic activity:

    - no nightclubs, karaoke, rock concerts, etc. Restrictions on the maximum number of people in pubs.
    - proper quarantine procedures for people coming from overseas
    - you continue to encourage working from home
    - compulsory masks in places like public transport

    Plus, you ramp up rapid testing for things like schools, so that flare ups can be shut down quickly.

    Now, it means that Christmas parties are going to be more sedate this year. But it means they still happen. Most people are able to go about their lives with minimal disruption.

    It doesn't get rid of CV19, but it manages it until a vaccine exists.
    And there are those who insist on trying to invent a "tough choice" that they would make: economy or public health.

    It doesn't matter how much evidence there is that they're linked, that it's not "either or" but "both or nothing," they'll insist on saying, "Well, I'd sacrifice public health for the economy, because it would be better in the long term."

    No it wouldn't. Sacrifice public health and you ALSO sacrifice the economy. Preserve one, and you preserve the other.

    And "let it rip" literally MEANS the worst of a "quasi lockdown" for longer than six months (or as long as it takes to get to a virus.

    @LadyG : how many infections per day do you think we should sustain? Divide 40 million by that number to get the number of days we'd be going through it.

    For every ten thousand infections per day you accept, put in 250 hospitalisations per day and 40 deaths per day. (So 50,000 is 1250 hospitalisations per day and 200 deaths per day, for example).

    Don't just say "I've done the arithmetic." Actually do the arithmetic. Give us your result - in numbers: Total length of time taken, number of hospitalisations per day, number of deaths per day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    We could even, at a minimum, have implemented pooled testing. That would have given us a fivefold increase in capacity for testing for institutions (schools, hospital staff, care homes etc), as opposed to individuals.
    I'm not sure what the overall gain would have been but it would have to be at least overall doubling of capacity for a relatively small expenditure of resources.

    There was plenty of time to do this, and little or no downside that I can see.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The impact of Cummings is revealed by just how touchy the fanbois are about it.

    They know how bad it is...

    We just know how much he gets under your skin. I'll play a violin for you - here it is, actual size: 🎻
  • tlg86 said:

    I'm not sure about the logic of reducing the maximum attendance at weddings but not funerals. I'd have thought the average age of those at funerals is considerably higher.

    Makes zero sense. Same as max 6 for an indoor team sport, but can still have an indoor spin class with more, but not a yoga class outside.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    Scott_xP said:

    The impact of Cummings is revealed by just how touchy the fanbois are about it.

    They know how bad it is...

    We also know how badly he beat you in the 2016 EU Referendum and the 2019 GE, which is why your desperation to get rid of him is so great and your failure to do so so amusing... :wink:
  • dixiedean said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Of course non-league football is shafted. So are most team sports without access to TV deals.

    Since this morning I've been working out how many EFL clubs are in Tory held areas/marginals seats.

    I reckon if it is a purely political decision, Boris Johnson gives a bailout to the EFL clubs.
    You don't think your average non-fan will think millionaires getting special treatment?
    Even though that is not the case.
    I suspect any EFL bailout will come with lots of strings attached, like salaries capped, no paid transfers until the bailout is paid or a 1 for 1 like in Spain, so if you spend x amount on a transfer you must allow pay x amount back to the government.
    Fair enough. How do they service their debts though?
    A lot have debts bigger than any comparable company would bear. Having captive incomes from season tickets and a permanent knowledge a rich bloke will step in.
    The Bank of England lent Spurs a £175 million onto the proviso that it is ringfenced and not spent on transfers, I'm sure something similar can be set up for the EFL.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
    But it's not just testing capacity, it's rapid testing that's needed - the ability to get a saliva sample and get a result in 15 minutes. Abbot produces one of these, and it's $5/test.

    Imagine being able to test kids at the school gates every Monday morning. You'd find out who was infectious before they'd passed the disease on to 30 of their friends in the playground.

    With rapid testing, you are able to isolate the infectious early. This is a disease where the fundamental problem is that you are most infectious in the week before you feel symptoms. Rapid testing means you identify people before they spread the disease.

    If you checked 20 million people once a week, it would be $100m (before discounts) a week.

    That's chump change.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,016

    What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?

    I mostly use Firefox but that's really because I like foxes - at my casual user level I find the differences from Chrome (which I used at work) and Edge (which I use when there's a Firefox problem) absolutely minimal. I know there are people who feel very keen on one and are utterly scornful of people who use others (especially Edge for some reason - because it's Microsoft?), but they're like wine snobs sneering at people who like a different drink.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,741
    Wait for Survation...



    No cross over from them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    edited September 22
    Scott_xP said:

    The impact of Cummings is revealed by just how touchy the fanbois are about it.

    They know how bad it is...

    And it is here to stay. 50 years hence "What connects Barnard Castle and eye tests" will be a question in a British, sorry, English, citizenship test.
  • RH1992 said:

    LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    This is not far from me. Headingley has been noticeably busier with students over the weekend.

    Crikey.
  • HYUFD said:

    To be fair to Cummings though he only possibly broke the rules regarding travel and now you can still travel across the country whereever you like, he did not hold a house party or gathering with large numbers of people so he can probably still get away with it for now.

    If however new travel restrictions are introduced again within the UK ie do not travel beyond your city, town or village, then Cummings will be in trouble as the government will find it difficult to enforce with him still there

    That argument doesn't really ring true.

    I very much doubt people are thinking of the specifics of what Cummings did when his Barnard Castle stuff springs to mind. Many people have a generalised sense that the Cummings affair proved it's one rule for "them" and another for "us", and thus apply all COVID rules emanating from Government flexibly at best. That was the practical price of Johnson's loyalty to Cummings - in practice it makes it harder to reduce the R now, and that's that.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 250
    Sandpit said:

    RH1992 said:

    'Kin hell, Professor Sikora is worse than Sion Simon.



    New PB rule, anyone who posts a Karol Sikora tweet on PB to support their argument is likely to be mocked mercilessly
    Thing is, when the counterargument was Piers Morgan and much of the internet advocating people be sealed in their homes indefinitely, Sikora seemed reasonable as a voice of no panic.

    That sheen wore off pretty quickly when it became clear that he didn't have a clue what he was on about. It didn't stop the daytime TV shows from continuing to book him for months though.
    The media come out of this year worse than just about anyone else.

    They’re the one group whose behaviour comes across as actively malicious in dealing with the pandemic.
    I agree. It's pretty obvious that they're the ones seeding some of the confusion we see.

    The cycle usually goes:

    1. PM/Minister's press briefing/statement to Parliament with a simple change to the regulations e.g rule of six
    2. The media immediately talk about "confusing new regulations" straight after said statement/press briefing ends, purely because it's not all or nothing
    3. The media then speak to members of the public
    4. The members of the public (who have watched the coverage including the media talking about how confusing it all is) complain about "how confusing all this is"
    5. The media uses this as validation that the PM/Minister's announcement is unworkable and full of holes

    Cycle repeats after each announcement.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,065

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.

    Awful though it is for people working in the wedding industry - and I absolutely don't want to minimise it on the individual employee level - is this sort of thing really the big issue at the moment on the level of the macro-economy?

    Weddings will (God willing) recommence, probably in greater numbers due to pent-up demand, later in 2021. So there will actually be strong demand. I do not know the detailed economics of the wedding industry, but are costs of entry so high that there won't essentially be a V-shaped recovery?

    The businesses we want to worry about at the national level are businesses where demand won't pick up and/or the costs of entry are high. These won't have a V-shaped recovery, and are much more worrying.
    Not to sidetrack onto weddings, but I have several friends who run wedding venues and I can say that most were booked up for 18-24months in advance (weddings and their planning/cost/extravagance seem to have changed since I attended them years ago).

    Hence there is no more capacity so if they can't hold a wedding now then they can't make it up next year because next year is already booked up.

    All that can happen is to raise prices which seems unfair on the weddingees.

    Many wedding venues apply for a set number of weddings per year and hence there may be some scope to shift them to Fridays/deepest November but this is a limited option.

    TOPPING, your wedding venue correspondent, out.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462

    What is the preferred choice of browser for PB fans?

    I mostly use Firefox but that's really because I like foxes - at my casual user level I find the differences from Chrome (which I used at work) and Edge (which I use when there's a Firefox problem) absolutely minimal. I know there are people who feel very keen on one and are utterly scornful of people who use others (especially Edge for some reason - because it's Microsoft?), but they're like wine snobs sneering at people who like a different drink.
    That's probably because MS Edge is nowadays built on chromium which is the basis of Chrome.
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
    But it's not just testing capacity, it's rapid testing that's needed - the ability to get a saliva sample and get a result in 15 minutes. Abbot produces one of these, and it's $5/test.

    Imagine being able to test kids at the school gates every Monday morning. You'd find out who was infectious before they'd passed the disease on to 30 of their friends in the playground.

    With rapid testing, you are able to isolate the infectious early. This is a disease where the fundamental problem is that you are most infectious in the week before you feel symptoms. Rapid testing means you identify people before they spread the disease.

    If you checked 20 million people once a week, it would be $100m (before discounts) a week.

    That's chump change.
    That's what the Government has said it is aiming to be in a position to be able to offer. Have you any confidence that Abbot could provide 20mn of such tests per week at immediate notice? And if so why is no other country getting them at such a volume?
  • LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    7 unis already have outbreaks.
    My father's fear is that come December all these students, plenty of them asymptomatic, go back home for Christmas, infect their parents, then infect grandparents and other family members at Christmas lunch.
  • RH1992 said:

    LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    This is not far from me. Headingley has been noticeably busier with students over the weekend.

    And, when the weather turns worse, where will all these people be? Indoors separately or indoors together? That is the big question.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,565

    Scott_xP said:

    Shall we forget it ever happened?

    BoZo still could, and should, sack him.

    It remains a running sore
    The fact Cummings beat you in the Referendum is the running sore you can't get over.
    I’ll suggest that to my 78-year old Mum. Leave-sympathising, voted Tory last December, and if I ever mention Cummings’ name it’s, “Don’t you speak about THAT MAN!”

    She won’t be voting Tory again while Boris is leading them. She thinks his totally weak and under Cummings thumb.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,741

    RH1992 said:

    LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    This is not far from me. Headingley has been noticeably busier with students over the weekend.

    Crikey.
    Noticed Avon & Somerset mounted police, saddling up to patrol Clifton Downs, to watch how students congregate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
    But it's not just testing capacity, it's rapid testing that's needed - the ability to get a saliva sample and get a result in 15 minutes. Abbot produces one of these, and it's $5/test.

    Imagine being able to test kids at the school gates every Monday morning. You'd find out who was infectious before they'd passed the disease on to 30 of their friends in the playground.

    With rapid testing, you are able to isolate the infectious early. This is a disease where the fundamental problem is that you are most infectious in the week before you feel symptoms. Rapid testing means you identify people before they spread the disease.

    If you checked 20 million people once a week, it would be $100m (before discounts) a week.

    That's chump change.
    Obviously the cost of administering the test, transmitting the results etc would be a multiple of that. And once a week risks someone being infectious for 6 days before they are caught. And what about the other 45m?
    And could they really scale that up to 20m tests a week? My understanding is that the technology to do that reliably doesn't yet exist and is still being developed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,033

    Well my elderly folks, who had to shield, just phoned me to say this means they can go away this winter, right?

    I had to say at the moment, yes, but, reality strikes, foreign travel will more than likely be restricted.

    Well, from my perspective, I'd be very happy to fly off to the sun this winter PROVIDED that there are not more than 6 people on the aircraft OR that there's social distancing on the plane and everyone wears masks.
    Otherwise ........not so much.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076

    Scott_xP said:

    The impact of Cummings is revealed by just how touchy the fanbois are about it.

    They know how bad it is...

    We just know how much he gets under your skin. I'll play a violin for you - here it is, actual size: 🎻
    Nice dig at Boris, there ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,691

    Basically, these measures lasting at least six months will kill my daughter’s business - along with many others.

    From February half-term is when the new season starts. If pubs and restaurants cannot be open normally by the start of the 2021 season then they will lose a second season, having already lost most of this year’s one, and losing Xmas, music events, funeral teas, catering for local societies and other meetings and people wanting drinks at the bar, as well as restricted hours. They simply cannot do this without help.

    France and Germany extended support for much much longer than this government is doing. Why can’t we?

    Bye bye any levelling up in the North or in Cumbria. Levelling down is our future.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915
    edited September 22
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
    But it's not just testing capacity, it's rapid testing that's needed - the ability to get a saliva sample and get a result in 15 minutes. Abbot produces one of these, and it's $5/test.

    Imagine being able to test kids at the school gates every Monday morning. You'd find out who was infectious before they'd passed the disease on to 30 of their friends in the playground.

    With rapid testing, you are able to isolate the infectious early. This is a disease where the fundamental problem is that you are most infectious in the week before you feel symptoms. Rapid testing means you identify people before they spread the disease.

    If you checked 20 million people once a week, it would be $100m (before discounts) a week.

    That's chump change.
    I don't know Abbott can provide anything like that volume ?
    The Harvard guy has a similar paper strip antigen test, royalty free, which would probably come in around half that price in mass volumes. He's been trying to get someone to pick it up for months.

    A regional proof of concept trial could have been done for a few million.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844

    LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    7 unis already have outbreaks.
    My father's fear is that come December all these students, plenty of them asymptomatic, go back home for Christmas, infect their parents, then infect grandparents and other family members at Christmas lunch.
    The sensible thing is to keep the halls all open over Christmas and encourage all the students to party like its 1999, but with each other.

    That, and get the university labs to be able to process shedloads of tests.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,741
    Breaking international law, guess Boris Johnson is going to have to look at how focus groups see it.



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,449
    Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.
  • LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    7 unis already have outbreaks.
    My father's fear is that come December all these students, plenty of them asymptomatic, go back home for Christmas, infect their parents, then infect grandparents and other family members at Christmas lunch.
    A sensible thing to do is surely to test every student before they leave?
  • TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.

    Awful though it is for people working in the wedding industry - and I absolutely don't want to minimise it on the individual employee level - is this sort of thing really the big issue at the moment on the level of the macro-economy?

    Weddings will (God willing) recommence, probably in greater numbers due to pent-up demand, later in 2021. So there will actually be strong demand. I do not know the detailed economics of the wedding industry, but are costs of entry so high that there won't essentially be a V-shaped recovery?

    The businesses we want to worry about at the national level are businesses where demand won't pick up and/or the costs of entry are high. These won't have a V-shaped recovery, and are much more worrying.
    Not to sidetrack onto weddings, but I have several friends who run wedding venues and I can say that most were booked up for 18-24months in advance (weddings and their planning/cost/extravagance seem to have changed since I attended them years ago).

    Hence there is no more capacity so if they can't hold a wedding now then they can't make it up next year because next year is already booked up.

    All that can happen is to raise prices which seems unfair on the weddingees.

    Many wedding venues apply for a set number of weddings per year and hence there may be some scope to shift them to Fridays/deepest November but this is a limited option.

    TOPPING, your wedding venue correspondent, out.
    I don't see why increasing prices in response to high demand is unfair on people getting married. That's just perfectly normal supply and demand. Some will be willing to pay a bit more (which will stabilise the position of those businesses who have lost a lot this year) and others will leave it a few months. It's a shame for those who opt to delay in a way, but it's not a fairness issue.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,076

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    And the government are still not taking action on foreign travel...Its March all over again.
    They are already restricting people coming from locations that are much safer than is the UK.

    Give the volumes, travel within the UK is probably now the greater risk.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.

    This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,741
    Dead heat in a 2 horse race, bar steward's inquiry.

  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    LadyG said:

    Reading LadyG's posts about "Oh, can't we just get it over with, let other people die, I just want it to be back to normal" - I don't think they've thought about the arithmetic.

    I agree with your point, but I don't think it's a matter of arithmetic for certain people. Those who are fundamentally selfish don't care how many die or suffer as long as they think this won't include them. And they are precisely the reason that The Swedish Model would not work for us...

    --AS
    I have thought about the arithmetic. I have thought about the arithmetic of an extended lockdown - quasi or severe - for six months. I have thought about the people who will die of undiagnosed cancers, the millions with intensified mental health problems, the huge uptick in suicides, the addicts and drunks who will relapse from despair, the centres of our cities hollowed out for good.

    I have thought about all this and I am unpersuaded that a second lockdown will, on balance, be a benefit to the nation.

    I really don't see why this is complex.

    You implement a consistent set of measures that minimise R, without shutting down economic activity:

    - no nightclubs, karaoke, rock concerts, etc. Restrictions on the maximum number of people in pubs.
    - proper quarantine procedures for people coming from overseas
    - you continue to encourage working from home
    - compulsory masks in places like public transport

    Plus, you ramp up rapid testing for things like schools, so that flare ups can be shut down quickly.

    Now, it means that Christmas parties are going to be more sedate this year. But it means they still happen. Most people are able to go about their lives with minimal disruption.

    It doesn't get rid of CV19, but it manages it until a vaccine exists.
    And there are those who insist on trying to invent a "tough choice" that they would make: economy or public health.

    It doesn't matter how much evidence there is that they're linked, that it's not "either or" but "both or nothing," they'll insist on saying, "Well, I'd sacrifice public health for the economy, because it would be better in the long term."

    No it wouldn't. Sacrifice public health and you ALSO sacrifice the economy. Preserve one, and you preserve the other.

    And "let it rip" literally MEANS the worst of a "quasi lockdown" for longer than six months (or as long as it takes to get to a virus.

    @LadyG : how many infections per day do you think we should sustain? Divide 40 million by that number to get the number of days we'd be going through it.

    For every ten thousand infections per day you accept, put in 250 hospitalisations per day and 40 deaths per day. (So 50,000 is 1250 hospitalisations per day and 200 deaths per day, for example).

    Don't just say "I've done the arithmetic." Actually do the arithmetic. Give us your result - in numbers: Total length of time taken, number of hospitalisations per day, number of deaths per day.
    There's a much easier way to crunch the numbers than that. Look at Sweden.

    Their fall in GDP has been much less than ours - or France, Spain, Italy, etc. Because their lockdown was much less intense. Schools stayed open (allowing parents to work), restaurants also carried on, and so forth. Economic activity was reduced, but it wasn't decimated.

    As a result we should now expect to see a huge surge as Sweden endures a second wave, right? As they have been more lax, and are not reimposing restrictions.

    It just isn't happening.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

    As their epidemiologist predicted, cases are bubbling along at about the same rate - way down on the peak. Deaths are minimal. Their health service is not swamped. Life goes on.

    As nar as we can tell, Sweden has cracked it. It really is as simple as that. They said you just have to live with this virus, and that is what they are doing.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,850

    Scott_xP said:

    Shall we forget it ever happened?

    BoZo still could, and should, sack him.

    It remains a running sore
    The fact Cummings beat you in the Referendum is the running sore you can't get over.
    “Yes, we’re hiding in the cellar of our bombed-out house, eating rats to survive, and there's a battalion of Russians at the other end of the street, but how about the way the Fuhrer stuck it to the French back in 1940 eh?”
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,887
    The longer Cummings stays the more damage he does.

    Keep cheering, boys...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
    But it's not just testing capacity, it's rapid testing that's needed - the ability to get a saliva sample and get a result in 15 minutes. Abbot produces one of these, and it's $5/test.

    Imagine being able to test kids at the school gates every Monday morning. You'd find out who was infectious before they'd passed the disease on to 30 of their friends in the playground.

    With rapid testing, you are able to isolate the infectious early. This is a disease where the fundamental problem is that you are most infectious in the week before you feel symptoms. Rapid testing means you identify people before they spread the disease.

    If you checked 20 million people once a week, it would be $100m (before discounts) a week.

    That's chump change.
    Obviously the cost of administering the test, transmitting the results etc would be a multiple of that. And once a week risks someone being infectious for 6 days before they are caught. And what about the other 45m?
    And could they really scale that up to 20m tests a week? My understanding is that the technology to do that reliably doesn't yet exist and is still being developed.
    That's not how it works.

    This is the test here: https://www.abbott.com/corpnewsroom/product-and-innovation/upping-the-ante-on-COVID-19-antigen-testing.html

    It needs no machine. You take a nasal swab, fold the card around it, add the reagent (which any half skilled technician or nurse or science teacher can do). And it takes 15 minutes to get a response.

    It's an antigen test, so it will miss some positive results.

    The US has just ordered 150 million units.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,691
    This is what the French government is doing.

    “Victor Mallet in Paris JUNE 8 2020


    France’s “temporary unemployment” scheme to avert mass bankruptcies and lay-offs as a result of the coronavirus crisis will be extended, and is now expected to last up to two years, the country’s labour minister said.
    ....................
    Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister, said that at the end of April some 8.6m employees were benefiting from the French scheme, under which the state pays subsidies to companies to fund the salaries of those prevented from working.

    “We are going to put in place a long-term partial-activity scheme,” Ms Pénicaud told Franceinfo radio, “through which employees could have fewer working hours and be partly supported by the state.” The scheme “is likely to last a year or two,” she added.
    .........................

    Ms Pénicaud did not say what share of wages the French government would continue to pay — currently 84-100 per cent of net salary for the lower paid — but that this was under discussion with employers and trade unions. She also said the government would make 50,000 inspections before the end of the summer to detect and punish fraudulent use of the scheme.
    .............

    “I think it makes sense even if the fiscal cost is going to be huge,” said Gilles Moec, Axa chief economist.
    .........................“


    See here for rest of article - https://www.ft.com/content/63b33ede-4463-4342-845a-26cf85a91d3d

    Two years.
  • LadyG said:

    Given how dire the warnings from the egg heads yesterday, i can't imagine they are really on board with all we need to do for 6 months is shut the pub earlier and ask for continued WFH.

    I think they are hoping that like in early March people go much into a de facto lockdown.
    I reckon your father's source from last night was nearer the truth. This is a last throw of the dice by HMG, to try and keep the economy going, and relying - as you say - on human fear and caution to do the work of distancing.

    However, they don't really expect it to work, and in a few weeks we will get proper Lockdown the Second
    I suspect most people will try and reduce their ability to catch the plague.

    The unknown is the return of universities, does anyone know how many students live at home when they go to university?

    That could be the difference between a light touch and lockdown 2?
    7 unis already have outbreaks.
    My father's fear is that come December all these students, plenty of them asymptomatic, go back home for Christmas, infect their parents, then infect grandparents and other family members at Christmas lunch.
    A sensible thing to do is surely to test every student before they leave?
    Sensible? Dido Harding? You're having a laugh.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,928

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently the cut-off time in Wales and Northern Ireland is going to be 11pm, not 10pm.

    This stuff is just pathetic signalling that devolved regions has some powers. It does nothing to really change public health outcomes.
    It's not trivial at all. The busy final hour from ten to eleven can mean profit or loss for a pub or restaurant. Welsh pubs are more likely to survive the winter.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (again):

    The government did a terrible job of preparing for a second wave over the summer. We got notice from US states like Georgia that the virus could easily flare up again. And we could have invested in large quantities of rapid testing equipment.

    Yet we did not.

    We were also aware that many countries - like India, Brazil and Mexico - were doing a terrible job of controlling infections. We knew that Spain was following policies (like opening nightclubs) that would potentially cause R to skyrocket.

    Yet we did nothing to shut down travel from these places. We did nothing to test people on arrival. And we did nothing to properly quarantine people, instead relying on a bizarre "stay home for two weeks after travelling home by public transport."

    Both these issues were particularly serious because they presaged the reopening of schools in September. There was always going to be the potential for a rush of cases as children infected each other (social distancing in the playground is no easy thing), so this was a crucial time to be prepared.

    And we were not.

    There has, in fairness, been a massive increase in testing capacity over the summer. There were 219k tests yesterday. No one else in Europe has increased testing capacity by anything like as much. Today they are talking about this doubling again by the end of October.

    Travel, however, has been a mystery to me since February. Anyone travelling abroad should have been in mandatory quarantine away from their families on their return at their own cost for at least 10 days or two clear tests. Nothing else I can see would have reduced our R rate over the late summer by more.
    But it's not just testing capacity, it's rapid testing that's needed - the ability to get a saliva sample and get a result in 15 minutes. Abbot produces one of these, and it's $5/test.

    Imagine being able to test kids at the school gates every Monday morning. You'd find out who was infectious before they'd passed the disease on to 30 of their friends in the playground.

    With rapid testing, you are able to isolate the infectious early. This is a disease where the fundamental problem is that you are most infectious in the week before you feel symptoms. Rapid testing means you identify people before they spread the disease.

    If you checked 20 million people once a week, it would be $100m (before discounts) a week.

    That's chump change.
    I don't know Abbott can provide anything like that volume ?
    The Harvard guy has a similar paper strip antigen test, royalty free, which would probably come in around half that price in mass volumes. He's been trying to get someone to pick it up for months.

    A regional proof of concept trial could have been done for a few million.
    They've been talking about it for a few months. If we'd placed an order early, manufacturing capacity would have been ramped up earlier.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,065

    TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT

    R5L full of business owners realising they are going bust.
    Things I didn't know. The wedding industry is bigger than the fishing.
    Unviable with parties of 15.

    Awful though it is for people working in the wedding industry - and I absolutely don't want to minimise it on the individual employee level - is this sort of thing really the big issue at the moment on the level of the macro-economy?

    Weddings will (God willing) recommence, probably in greater numbers due to pent-up demand, later in 2021. So there will actually be strong demand. I do not know the detailed economics of the wedding industry, but are costs of entry so high that there won't essentially be a V-shaped recovery?

    The businesses we want to worry about at the national level are businesses where demand won't pick up and/or the costs of entry are high. These won't have a V-shaped recovery, and are much more worrying.
    Not to sidetrack onto weddings, but I have several friends who run wedding venues and I can say that most were booked up for 18-24months in advance (weddings and their planning/cost/extravagance seem to have changed since I attended them years ago).

    Hence there is no more capacity so if they can't hold a wedding now then they can't make it up next year because next year is already booked up.

    All that can happen is to raise prices which seems unfair on the weddingees.

    Many wedding venues apply for a set number of weddings per year and hence there may be some scope to shift them to Fridays/deepest November but this is a limited option.

    TOPPING, your wedding venue correspondent, out.
    I don't see why increasing prices in response to high demand is unfair on people getting married. That's just perfectly normal supply and demand. Some will be willing to pay a bit more (which will stabilise the position of those businesses who have lost a lot this year) and others will leave it a few months. It's a shame for those who opt to delay in a way, but it's not a fairness issue.
    That is true and I guess it will happen for next year (prices are locked in already now) or maybe the year after if contracts have been signed.

    And yes it is indeed the market no idea why I put that bit in about fairness! It must be SKS' speech today making me go soft.
This discussion has been closed.