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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak getting close to Starmer in the next PM betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak getting close to Starmer in the next PM betting
Since Stamer became LAB leader on April 4th his lead in the next PM betting has been shaved by much more interest in the man who was a junior minister barely 10 months ago, Rishi Sunak.
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Apparently not I guess.
If that bet does come in, and I'm assuming COVID would be gone by then, I hope we could maybe have a drinks meet up around then. Would be a nice little bet to come in.
Headline - 10
7 days - 6
Yesterday - 0
To me it would make sense eg if people with 40 mile commutes or health conditions etc take the train while people with 2-3 mile commutes consider alternatives like buses or ebikes etc
All I was trying to say is that options do exist. The fact that passenger numbers have frequently changed is proof positive of that.
PS if rail has been "by-in large been paid for" already then it shouldn't be too expensive to run either. A key reason rail is so expensive is because passenger numbers are going up so more capacity is needed, it is basic supply and demand. If passenger numbers start to go down, or even stabilise, then it should be possible to run a cheaper service.
They count 15 states as battleground states. the list of "battlegrounds" is
Arizona, Florida,Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio,Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin
Oh no, Biden is struggling in Texas, he is doomed.
IF Texas, Iowa and Georgia count as battlegrounds then Trump is fucked.
How many of those 15 states were won by Hillary?
It was won by Obama twice and by Gore in 2000. If Iowa isn't a swing state then the Democrats have gone backwards there.
Did you get an e-bike over?
Texas and Georgia are clearly there for distortion purposes. Good spot by @Alistair
Watch to see all the partisan hacks on both sides instantly reverse ferret on what they think of the Electoral College if that happens!
The arbitrary and capricious nature of Boris’s quarantine policy is abundantly clear. It won’t be long before both countries are released from quarantine again and all the hassle and disruption imposed on British travellers there will have been for nothing.
Thanks for your comments offline, I will pass them on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
There’s lots of Texans telling the newcomers not to bring their sh.. politics with them!
There were 32 US states with bigger margins for Trump or Hillary than Texas, Iowa or Georgia had
And begs the question - why is Michael Moore ramping for Trump?
Is it because he wants him to win so he can make some angry films about how awful he is?
And we call ourselves a community.
But I thought the EU has rules about state aid? The idea that we should agree to anything the EU says on this subject and be bound by treaty laws that member states will simply ignore is laughable. It's the one thing I'd learn to live with no deal over. We cannot submit to any kind of deal which gives the EU unilateral control over the level playing field, it is absolutely a non-starter.
Super in touch with the psyche of the British public, there, Philip.
Get your head out of your ass. There is a different world outside your own reality.
The one that grew by 4.7% in 2019 and has consistently outgrown the US economy for practically ever?
But, yes, the Dems must not be complacent, and tbf I think there's little chance of that. They'll leave it all on the pitch this time.
She largely ignored him and focused on Arizona and Texas and Florida and big fundraisers in California
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2016/10/31/the-lead-talk-clinton-emails-michael-moore.cnn
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/18/politics/los-angeles-homeless-crisis/index.html
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-09-27/ab5-independent-contractors-how-businesses-are-responding
From RCP averages it should be Biden 47 - Trump 45.
I'm not denying that for some trips options exist, but not necessarily commutes into major cities where the volumes of travellers and lack of road space make it the only viable option for most. I'm sure most commuters with options to use bikes, busses, etc have already considered their options and made a rationale decision!
Variation in passenger numbers may have a number of causes, including economic growth, increases in leisure travel, upgrades making rail a more enticing proposition etc.
He was ignored.
iirc the data kids running the campaign said he was so last century.
From 2016:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=vMm5HfxNXY4
Maybe all the talk of people fed up with the state and leaving is just that.
last one added was late july polling, with biden just ahead.
For the winning party you don't want complacency and for the losing party you don't want to give up.
Same as in 2019 both the Tories and Corbynites were pushing an "its closer than the polls say, every vote counts" line.
None of this necessarily makes it a nice place to live of course. The stories about the homeless in San Fran, for example, are heartbreaking.
I don't support Chelsea but I can understand that plenty of people do.
No.
Scrub that. Some things are unfathomable.
Trump 29,343,159 (49%)
Clinton 27,574,279 (46%)
'Bill didn't buy the excuse that Comey would cost Hillary the election,' said the source. 'As far as he was concerned, all the blame belonged to [campaign manager Robby] Mook, [campaign chairman John] Podesta and Hillary because they displayed a tone-deaf attitude about the feeble economy and its impact on millions and millions of working-class voters.
'Bill was so red in the face during his conversation with Hillary that I worried he was going to have a heart attack. He got so angry that he threw his phone off the roof of his penthouse apartment and toward the Arkansas River.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3935800/Days-losing-election-Hillary-Bill-Clinton-sceaming-match-blame-flagging-campaign-ex-president-angry-threw-phone-roof-Arkansas-penthouse.html
So looks like a 2% swing.
This supposed set of Battleground States doesn't do that. Biden wins comfortably if he's tied in this set of states.
Biden 1.86
Trump 2.2
Dem 1.83
Rep 2.18
Plenty do normally, I would like to normally. Doing so during a pandemic and expecting sympathy if things go wrong due to the pandemic . . . yes Chelsea was a good analogy to pick.
I have more confidence in the economic competence of the Scottish Government in Edinburgh than in the UK Government in Westminster.”
https://www.businessforscotland.com/poll-70-would-trust-scottish-government-with-powers-to-run-economy/
If we apply the swing from this poll to the 2016 election Biden wins with 334 Electoral College votes to 204.
That's not closer than 2016.
If Biden leads in those states by just 1% that is only a 2% swing from Trump to Biden since 2016 which would see Biden pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and maybe Arizona and North Carolina.
That might see him win but would still be only around the same margin for Biden that Obama had over Romney in 2012 and much closer than the 2008 EC lead Obama had over McCain and it only takes a small bounce for Trump after his convention for it to be neck and neck again.
You also have to remember a lot of state polls in 2016 underestimated the Trump voteshare compared to what he actually got
Conclusion - they chose a set of states to give a closer result in the poll. Just because they call them the Battleground States we don't have to accept that.
Sadly, Trump has it too.
https://twitter.com/eleanorkpenny/status/1299332486389002245?s=20
If you have the money - awesome. Otherwise, not so much.
For example, the whole ban-temp-workers thing is actually about health care. Since health care is employer provided in the US model, not offering such benefits to temp workers is (a) a big saving and (b) is seen as social dumping. If you are on high six-figures, you just buy health insurance and laugh.... If you are not...
How much EC margin qualifies iyo?
Absolute fucking grade a moron.
All within the same State.
The US truly is a land of contrast.