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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories are to lose their majority there has to be an “u
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Tories are to lose their majority there has to be an “understanding” between Starmer and Davey
So the punters had the LD leadership contest right. In a relatively low turnout election (57% of members) Sir Ed Davey beat Layla Moran by 63.5% to 36.5%. This was largely expected and broadly in line with the YouGov members’ poll last January.
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Headline - 7
7 days - 6
Yesterday - 3
If weren't for the fact there were so many British police out there in an official capacity it would have been much worse.
They were indiscriminately striking people, including young children, then trying to arrest stricken people for being a nuisance is truly special.
My 'favourite' was the Greek rozzer who grabbed official match tickets from Liverpool fans, hit them, then said they were trying to get in without tickets.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1298964794377146369
He's a relaxed and hunky guy and there's loads of suitably good shots available.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1298968761312124928
Thankfully it's midterm and there's no elections for four years. No need to panic or overreact.
So right now people are voting Tory, some in spite of Johnson - Brexit?
Unfortunately they did it based on factional arguments rather than logic
It is my all time favourite of the pics I've uploaded to the PB servers.
Also loved the one of the Brexiteers with the flag saying
'Brexit mean's (sic) Brexit'
“It’s so bizarre, I actually feel a little bit sorry for the prime minister because it wasn’t ever intended for him – I did it as a message for the school management before I left in February,” the 48-year-old former librarian, who asked not to be named, told HuffPost UK.
“It just became untenable to carry on working there because of the lack of support I had and I was left with no choice but to resign.
“That’s why I decided to leave them a big message during my last week. They obviously never actually noticed, and it went untouched for six months.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/castle-rock-school-librarian-didnt-arrange-book-boris-johnson_uk_5f4767b7c5b64f17e138dbdd
I am also anti Farage, BUT if gongs are going to be given out for your political impact (and there are a whole host of MPs and ex-MPs who most of us have never heard of who have got them) then Farage must come pretty high up on the list for deserving one (says through gritted teeth).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/08/27/american-teenager-devastated-filling-thousands-scots-wikipedia/
They don;t like the government at all, but they ain;t too keen on the mainstream alternatives, either.
Sir Keir Starmer KCB really should throw Corbyn out of the party for this sabotage.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1298852196365357056
A Scottish Labour source said: “Richard not only missed an open goal, he wasn’t even on the pitch.
“It’s bad enough that he’s dragging the party down with him, but he’s also putting the Union at risk with his ineptitude.”
Hypothetically in a sample of 3 I might say I am for Johnson, against Starmer and neutral on Davey, voting Tories. You might say you're against Johnson, for Starmer, neutral on Davey and voting for Labour. Someone else may say they're against Johnson neutral on Starmer, for Davey and voting for the Lib Dems.
Now that sums to between three people 1 favourable for each leader and 1 vote for each party. Net it is plus one for Davey, neutral for Starmer and minus one for Johnson but the votes don't reflect that.
If a party is inoffensive but doesn't attract much actually in favour or voting for them then does the fact they're inoffensive so are net popular but with little actual support mean they're doing well?
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1298961796368396288?s=21
Suggest this for SKS -
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/labour-leader-keir-starmer-arrives-at-wakefield-college-for-news-photo/1265546492
https://twitter.com/AynRandPaulRyan/status/1298958865732521985?s=20
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=SomkWJ6o&id=8192589EBEAA5132370C8B1200856762E4BE2931&thid=OIP.SomkWJ6oGzsEkopJS4GczAHaEK&mediaurl=https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/eO9N70jrMANsbrSX77_Zxg--~B/aD0xMTUyO3c9MjA0ODtzbT0xO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media-mbst-pub-ue1.s3.amazonaws.com/creatr-uploaded-images/2020-06/c129d190-aa8f-11ea-b6fd-6b81c0f1d899&exph=1152&expw=2048&q=starmer+taking+the+knee&simid=608026824968964794&ck=D95232E95F23CBD6C44AA90BB7FBAAB9&selectedIndex=0&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0
Shamelessly adopt your opponents policies when they are popular, so you can gain credit for them and neutralise them as a point of difference. Then you can choose how to differentiate yourself on terrain that favours you.
It's a good slogan, but now it's like motherhood and apple pie. Everyone's in favour of it, so what? What are the Tories doing to make it happen? Why aren't they doing x, y and z as well?
From 2010-2015 Labour consistently led in the polls, Milliband frequently led in net favourability, but Cameron consistently led in absolute favourability.
Which proved to be more accurate in the 2015 election?
The Spanish outbreak is predominately asymptotic (60%) and under 40, the numbers hospitalized are low enough, in most communities, to not stress the system (I posted some Covid % Hospital occupancy rates a few days ago) and transfers to icu proportionally low as well. The problem is that it is occasionally getting into care homes causing deaths. Sticking my neck out I think we are reaching the peak of this wave in the country overall but with hot spots still occurring. Of course it could all go titus aribus when the schools go back and there is not great confidence that it won’t despite the planning and precautions.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Here is his original article. Pre-vanilla so no comments but has his original article in full: https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/29/should-the-blues-be-worried-about-daves-ratings-collapse/
Since readmittance the greatest violent seen involving fans from England featured Arsenal.
I don't care to fight either way, I think the Empire is in the past and that is where it should stay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfir10me2EQ
I said the other day what happens if we wish to put in favourable tax conditions to attract Tesla to build a Gigafactory in the UK providing thousands of highly productive, high paying jobs . . . in a way that Ireland has done for Apple and and Germany have done for Tesla . . . but the EU decides us having competitive taxes there is illegal state aid in our case and we have no recourse to deal with that?
I'm OK with the principle of no state aid, I am not OK with a foreign country determining our policies and interpreting it for us.
I'm very supportive of increasing our pitifully low rates of social security, but it's a hard struggle. Even Corbyn gave up on promising money for social security (the cowardly, malign waste of space that he proved to be).
Maybe their young people just don;t fancy a nite out, like they do in Spain. Or its more spaced out there innit.
Or something.
The problem was that local Labour activists viewed our running at all to be proof we were Tories, that the votes we were taking off the Tories in Tory wards were votes stolen from the blessed Jeremy, and nationally there was no reciprocity.
Frankly as a democrat I do not want to see parties stepping down for each other. People should be able to vote for the party of their choice. But clever campaigning and maximising pockets of support is the only way to play FPTP. The huge increase in the LD vote 2017 > 2019 delivered no progress. Just as the 20% surge in the Tory vote 2015 > 2017 lost them seats.
England 432 people per km squared
There might be a difference there. See if you spot it.
But as it happens I think Liverpool get too much of the blame for Heysel. My friends were there in 1980 for the Cup Winners Cup Final and they said the ground was falling to bits and completely unsuitable for a major European final. And the Juve fans didn't exactly cover themselves in glory in 1985.
Spain is pretty big too. And mask crazy. Ditto France.
Why are they doing so badly when Sweden is doing so well?
Yeh its them youngster going to dem nite clubs innit, before they was closed weeks ago.
or something.
From now on, some poor bugger is going to be sent well in advance of ministerial visits to look for this stuff. Visions of Malcolm Tucker screaming blue murder at whoever was in charge of setting up the venue.
Leonard gets a different outlook than said earlier in this thread.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1298984877153345536?s=20
In a book by Tony Evans (I think) he pointed out prior to the Heysel final both Liverpool and Juventus tried to get the final relocated because it was known the stadium wasn't up to scratch but UEFA did a 30 minute inspection in April and said it was fine.
As for the ban, I do feel sorry for the likes of Norwich, Wimbledon, and Coventry who were denied. An Everton supporting friend is convinced that the ban denied Howard Kendall's team the inevitability of doing a Liverpool and winning 3/4 European Cups in a short space of time.
The irony is lost on the likes of Manchester United fans who chant 'murderers' at Liverpool when their own fans have murdered Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough fans and at one point rioted so badly in Europe that they were thrown out of a European competition, but were allowed back in on the proviso they had to play 300 miles away from Old Trafford.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advance_Together