Its amusing to see the Tories being "reduced to just six Scottish seats" being described as "appalling".
It isn't that long ago the idea of six Tory MPs would have been considered brilliant remarkably good for the Tories. Cameron would have been happy to get six. Especially considering it is six time as many MPs as SLAB got.
That Atlantic piece on Britain's COVID response is excellent reading. Johnson is the wrong man at the wrong time. Suspect he knows it as well.
The Atlantic has had excellent coverage of Covid-19 generally neither alarmist nor denialist, and well sourced. Indeed so good that I have taken a subscription.
This article on QAnon is excellent too. The return of Salem Witchtrials and Mcarthyist conspiracies.
Here was me thinking America was over it's second wave of deaths an it turns out yesterday was the highest number of deaths reported since the 27th of May (caveat, that's day of reporting figure not day of death)
The South Coast has hardly any cases. Its one of the many reasons that footballers who come to play or manage Saints keep a house round here. Even an ex Scottish Manager continues to live in Warsash.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
The moles don't seem to be responding much to the whackings.
And it looks to me like there may be a new mole appearing in the West Midlands - Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Dudley etc., which would be a big one to whack.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
Two different things, Malc. Currency needs a central bank.
The moles don't seem to be responding much to the whackings.
And it looks to me like there may be a new mole appearing in the West Midlands - Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Dudley etc., which would be a big one to whack.
That’s been around for weeks. The question was always when rather than whether it would start running away and need locking down.
Equally, it’s a bit doubtful how effective a local lockdown would be there given large numbers of people would probably simply ignore it.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
Why are you bothering? no arguments of the realities will ever persuade them, even though its staring them in the face....If reading this site has taught me anything its taught me that.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
Would be a certain irony if it was the Royal Bank of Scotland, just rebranded as the National Westminster.
Lol, I thin if Scotland had a McPound with their own central bank it could work, but the markets would hit the currency and bonds very quickly with devaluation and mega interest rates given the poor financial position Scotland has. It's definitely possible, but I'm not sure independence voters are voting for 20 years of austerity. 🤷♂️
Looking at the Covid cases charts you can imagine my delight that Mr RP Senior remains in hospital in Oldham awaiting his "emergency" Hernia operation. Which is now "hmmm I'm not sure we should operate given your other conditions lets have my boss look at you tomorrow".
Pretty much the same as last time then. It’s still a pretty close race.
Given we're still two and a half months away from election day, and there are a lot of "events" in the interim, I think c. 30% is probably a bit right, and maybe a tiny bit stingy.
(Although I'd note that Biden's lead has started rising again on the 538 tracker.)
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
Why are you bothering? no arguments of the realities will ever persuade them, even though its staring them in the face....If reading this site has taught me anything its taught me that.
Why else do you think that state run Scottish schools no longer teach economics? What's the point? The SNP have their own facts and seem happy with them.
Nando's could have exploited this by offering a free estimated grade with every meal purchased.
If Ofqual had replaced A* - E grades with Extra Hot - Lemon & Herb for this year, nobody would have been able to complain that they had got the wrong results.
Go on Gav. There's still time to make the situation even more confusing.
The moles don't seem to be responding much to the whackings.
Maybe the moles were an artefact. Despite being a supposed hotspot, numbers of inpatients in Leicester is a third of what it was a month ago.
When you start doing door to door swabbing you find a lot of mild disease. Important for stamping it out, but not to lose sleep over.
We will need to see the next reporting peak, but the last one, 3-6th August doesn't indicate a continued upward growth. Single swallows, summers etc. Something to watch.
Takeaway from the YouGov Scottish poll is that Johnson and the Conservative Party are approved of by the irridentist wing of the Unionist faction, consisting of 20% of Scots, and utterly despised by everyone else.
The problem for the continuance of the Union is that Johnson's vision for the UK settlement is anathema to at least half of Scottish Unionists, let alone those that support independence.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
Didn't Ireland have an ERM type 1:1 peg with the British Pound?
I am pretty sure that they floated their own currency a few years before they joined the Euro but they did have a tie to Sterling for something like 60 years.
Looking at the Covid cases charts you can imagine my delight that Mr RP Senior remains in hospital in Oldham awaiting his "emergency" Hernia operation. Which is now "hmmm I'm not sure we should operate given your other conditions lets have my boss look at you tomorrow".
When my mother-in-law had an operation delayed, I managed to find the senior consultant I had spoken to before.
He unleashed a torrent of what I presume was uncomplimentary words as the ditherer-in-charge. In a what I presume was an Indian language.
Who, wilting under the strain, muttered "there are people watching" to him.
The senior consultant used, looked at me, said "Sorry" and then dropped another torrent of abuse. In English this time.
A magnificent performance.
It is rare to see a person actually shrinking - I think another ten minutes and the doctor under the lash would have been 6 inches tall.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
The moles don't seem to be responding much to the whackings.
Maybe the moles were an artefact. Despite being a supposed hotspot, numbers of inpatients in Leicester is a third of what it was a month ago.
When you start doing door to door swabbing you find a lot of mild disease. Important for stamping it out, but not to lose sleep over.
We will need to see the next reporting peak, but the last one, 3-6th August doesn't indicate a continued upward growth. Single swallows, summers etc. Something to watch.
In Leicester we are down to just 11 inpatients today, a sixth of what it was at the beginning of July, and 5% of the peak in April. One death only in the last fortnight
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
Didn't Ireland have an ERM type 1:1 peg with the British Pound?
Yeah, I think so. Must have been difficult to maintain after the UK dropped out of the ERM.
The peg vanished long before erm, my gf in 1990 was Irish and we always changed money before flying over but bars were only too happy to accept english money on a 1:1 basis I think at the time it was something like 90 pence to the punt
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
Would be a certain irony if it was the Royal Bank of Scotland, just rebranded as the National Westminster.
Lol, I thin if Scotland had a McPound with their own central bank it could work, but the markets would hit the currency and bonds very quickly with devaluation and mega interest rates given the poor financial position Scotland has. It's definitely possible, but I'm not sure independence voters are voting for 20 years of austerity. 🤷♂️
We will see smart arse when England is on its own how they do , you may smile on the other side of your smug pompous face
Looking at the Covid cases charts you can imagine my delight that Mr RP Senior remains in hospital in Oldham awaiting his "emergency" Hernia operation. Which is now "hmmm I'm not sure we should operate given your other conditions lets have my boss look at you tomorrow".
When my mother-in-law had an operation delayed, I managed to find the senior consultant I had spoken to before.
He unleashed a torrent of what I presume was uncomplimentary words as the ditherer-in-charge. In a what I presume was an Indian language.
Who, wilting under the strain, muttered "there are people watching" to him.
The senior consultant used, looked at me, said "Sorry" and then dropped another torrent of abuse. In English this time.
A magnificent performance.
It is rare to see a person actually shrinking - I think another ten minutes and the doctor under the lash would have been 6 inches tall.
Completely inappropriate and unprofessional behaviour.
The moles don't seem to be responding much to the whackings.
Maybe the moles were an artefact. Despite being a supposed hotspot, numbers of inpatients in Leicester is a third of what it was a month ago.
When you start doing door to door swabbing you find a lot of mild disease. Important for stamping it out, but not to lose sleep over.
Maybe, but if that was the only explanation you'd expect biggish jump when they started intensive testing, followed by a tailing-off as the moles were whacked. That doesn't seem to be happening, although perhaps it's still too early to tell.
It would be good if they did some intensive testing in non-hotspot areas, as a control.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
Two different things, Malc. Currency needs a central bank.
Do you mean abuilding like the bank of england , just like every country has. Our share of the bank of england loot will do very nicely and starting off debt free will put us in a very nice position.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
Two different things, Malc. Currency needs a central bank.
Do you mean abuilding like the bank of england , just like every country has. Our share of the bank of england loot will do very nicely and starting off debt free will put us in a very nice position.
If you take a share of the assets, you’ll have to take a share of the debt most likely... 🤷♂️
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Isn't that the European Central Bank?
It may well be now but they all have had their own as well, so we will have our own or we will also have the ECB , only a foolish moron would not understand that if 200 countries can manage it poor old Scotland can manage it.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
Two different things, Malc. Currency needs a central bank.
Do you mean abuilding like the bank of england , just like every country has. Our share of the bank of england loot will do very nicely and starting off debt free will put us in a very nice position.
If you take a share of the assets, you’ll have to take a share of the debt most likely... 🤷♂️
If they want a share of the assets we could give them Northern ireland
Looking at the Covid cases charts you can imagine my delight that Mr RP Senior remains in hospital in Oldham awaiting his "emergency" Hernia operation. Which is now "hmmm I'm not sure we should operate given your other conditions lets have my boss look at you tomorrow".
When my mother-in-law had an operation delayed, I managed to find the senior consultant I had spoken to before.
He unleashed a torrent of what I presume was uncomplimentary words as the ditherer-in-charge. In a what I presume was an Indian language.
Who, wilting under the strain, muttered "there are people watching" to him.
The senior consultant used, looked at me, said "Sorry" and then dropped another torrent of abuse. In English this time.
A magnificent performance.
It is rare to see a person actually shrinking - I think another ten minutes and the doctor under the lash would have been 6 inches tall.
Completely inappropriate and unprofessional behaviour.
I rather got the impression there was history between them....
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
You want a large share of the UK’s IOUs?
That’s generous of you.
We will be debt free and the English unionist Nat West Bank will never be near being the central bank.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
Why are you bothering? no arguments of the realities will ever persuade them, even though its staring them in the face....If reading this site has taught me anything its taught me that.
Given the mince you print it has learnt you zilch, a turnip would know more.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
Didn't Ireland have an ERM type 1:1 peg with the British Pound?
Yeah, I think so. Must have been difficult to maintain after the UK dropped out of the ERM.
The peg vanished long before erm, my gf in 1990 was Irish and we always changed money before flying over but bars were only too happy to accept english money on a 1:1 basis I think at the time it was something like 90 pence to the punt
An interesting but incomplete article about the post-independence history of the Irish pound:
It traded 1:1 with Sterling for decades, but wiki doesn't mention who guaranteed it. There used to be a "Sterling Area" which included, I think, Australia and NZ. Was Ireland part of this? And history does not relate whether the "Irish Free State" was saddled with a share of our post-WW1 national debt.
Second Test at Southampton starts tomorrow. PBers have long been accustomed to profiting from laying the draw in five day games except when the weather is doubtful. If you believe the BBC forecast you would have to think that there could be a lot of interruptions. Otoh if you believe Netweather there could be a full five days, in which case the chances of a draw are much more remote than the odds of 2.9 (Betfair) would suggest.
Dodgy business betting on weather forecasts. Weathermen are rather apt to change their minds (and seldom admit a mistake when wrong!), but if Netweather are anywhere near right this looks a good betting opportunity.
I'd suggests laying to begin with but be quick to hedge as the contest evolves.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Isn't that the European Central Bank?
It may well be now but they all have had their own as well, so we will have our own or we will also have the ECB , only a foolish moron would not understand that if 200 countries can manage it poor old Scotland can manage it.
You can certainly have a central bank the issue will be however what rate you can borrow at. The ECB wont be available I suspect for ten years or so as I think you have to be in the euro for that and it will take at least ten years for scotland to meet all the criteria even if allowed immediate entry to the eu which frankly I don't believe you will be but its one that only time will tell on.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
OK
The Denmark Central bank has assets of ±£60 billion. And a long credit history. It was founded in 1818.
How much should the Scottish Central Bank have in assets, and where will it get it from?
For perspective, £60 billion is about one year's tax take in Scotland. Scotland spends £75 billion a year.
So it will have to find one year's tax take at least and £15 billion a year, just to stand still.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
Didn't Ireland have an ERM type 1:1 peg with the British Pound?
Yeah, I think so. Must have been difficult to maintain after the UK dropped out of the ERM.
The peg vanished long before erm, my gf in 1990 was Irish and we always changed money before flying over but bars were only too happy to accept english money on a 1:1 basis I think at the time it was something like 90 pence to the punt
An interesting but incomplete article about the post-independence history of the Irish pound:
It traded 1:1 with Sterling for decades, but wiki doesn't mention who guaranteed it. There used to be a "Sterling Area" which included, I think, Australia and NZ. Was Ireland part of this? And history does not relate whether the "Irish Free State" was saddled with a share of our post-WW1 national debt.
Not one of the lucky countries that threw off the yoke got a penny of debt, it was UK debt and nothing to do with them , aka Scotland.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
Two different things, Malc. Currency needs a central bank.
Do you mean abuilding like the bank of england , just like every country has. Our share of the bank of england loot will do very nicely and starting off debt free will put us in a very nice position.
If you take a share of the assets, you’ll have to take a share of the debt most likely... 🤷♂️
What assets?! The UK state has nothing but debt, we're one of the most indebted developed nations in the world, the state itself owns very little other than a few buildings and a miniscule holding of foreign bonds.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
We do not have a 9% deficit, we have made up numbers by Westminster. It would run a balanced budget and borrow sensibly , currently it borrows peanuts as that is all England allows. # We will do just fine.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
OK
The Denmark Central bank has assets of ±£60 billion. And a long credit history. It was founded in 1818.
How much should the Scottish Central Bank have in assets, and where will it get it from?
For perspective, £60 billion is about one year's tax take in Scotland. Scotland spends £75 billion a year.
So it will have to find one year's tax take at least and £15 billion a year, just to stand still.
It's all possible, but it means tuning a balanced budget, the question that needs answering us what the SNP would cut or which taxes would rise to balance the budget. Small countries can't run deficits in perpetuity in the same way big ones can, the markets will bully them and eventually go on strike leading to an IMF bailout.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
Two different things, Malc. Currency needs a central bank.
Do you mean abuilding like the bank of england , just like every country has. Our share of the bank of england loot will do very nicely and starting off debt free will put us in a very nice position.
If you take a share of the assets, you’ll have to take a share of the debt most likely... 🤷♂️
What assets?! The UK state has nothing but debt, we're one of the most indebted developed nations in the world, the state itself owns very little other than a few buildings and a miniscule holding of foreign bonds.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
You want a large share of the UK’s IOUs?
That’s generous of you.
We will be debt free and the English unionist Nat West Bank will never be near being the central bank.
An independent Scotland would get no share of assets unless you also took on a share of debts.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
Always the imaginary benevolent England paying all our bills, utter rubbish, as I said you can go back 50 years and we have a large surplus even allowing for funding English ( London ) infrastructure). WE will do just fine when we cast off the yoke and are able to produce real figures and not the rigged ones from London.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Isn't that the European Central Bank?
It may well be now but they all have had their own as well, so we will have our own or we will also have the ECB , only a foolish moron would not understand that if 200 countries can manage it poor old Scotland can manage it.
You can certainly have a central bank the issue will be however what rate you can borrow at. The ECB wont be available I suspect for ten years or so as I think you have to be in the euro for that and it will take at least ten years for scotland to meet all the criteria even if allowed immediate entry to the eu which frankly I don't believe you will be but its one that only time will tell on.
Second Test at Southampton starts tomorrow. PBers have long been accustomed to profiting from laying the draw in five day games except when the weather is doubtful. If you believe the BBC forecast you would have to think that there could be a lot of interruptions. Otoh if you believe Netweather there could be a full five days, in which case the chances of a draw are much more remote than the odds of 2.9 (Betfair) would suggest.
Dodgy business betting on weather forecasts. Weathermen are rather apt to change their minds (and seldom admit a mistake when wrong!), but if Netweather are anywhere near right this looks a good betting opportunity.
I'd suggests laying to begin with but be quick to hedge as the contest evolves.
I reckon Pakistan to win is the best bet, given how close they were last week. England without Stokes; Pakistan's bowling attack is strong enough to bowl England out twice, with maybe a worn pitch taking spin. And following rain ground should drain and dry pretty quickly. And Babar will score a century....
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
Didn't Ireland have an ERM type 1:1 peg with the British Pound?
Yeah, I think so. Must have been difficult to maintain after the UK dropped out of the ERM.
The peg vanished long before erm, my gf in 1990 was Irish and we always changed money before flying over but bars were only too happy to accept english money on a 1:1 basis I think at the time it was something like 90 pence to the punt
An interesting but incomplete article about the post-independence history of the Irish pound:
It traded 1:1 with Sterling for decades, but wiki doesn't mention who guaranteed it. There used to be a "Sterling Area" which included, I think, Australia and NZ. Was Ireland part of this? And history does not relate whether the "Irish Free State" was saddled with a share of our post-WW1 national debt.
Not one of the lucky countries that threw off the yoke got a penny of debt, it was UK debt and nothing to do with them , aka Scotland.
Ireland took on a share of debt. It was eventually released from that obligation in exchange for not disputing the border with Northern Ireland.
@MaxPB project fear just isn’t going to work this time.
Which is quite remarkable, given that Scots will have before them, in full sight, a fully worked example of what happens if you disrupt trading patterns, create borders where there were none before, ignore the practical realities, and alienate your much bigger neighbour, all in the name of a chimera.
It will be just one more in the list of catastrophic misjudgements made by voters in the UK since 2016.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
Didn't Ireland have an ERM type 1:1 peg with the British Pound?
Yeah, I think so. Must have been difficult to maintain after the UK dropped out of the ERM.
The peg vanished long before erm, my gf in 1990 was Irish and we always changed money before flying over but bars were only too happy to accept english money on a 1:1 basis I think at the time it was something like 90 pence to the punt
An interesting but incomplete article about the post-independence history of the Irish pound:
It traded 1:1 with Sterling for decades, but wiki doesn't mention who guaranteed it. There used to be a "Sterling Area" which included, I think, Australia and NZ. Was Ireland part of this? And history does not relate whether the "Irish Free State" was saddled with a share of our post-WW1 national debt.
Not one of the lucky countries that threw off the yoke got a penny of debt, it was UK debt and nothing to do with them , aka Scotland.
Ireland took on a share of debt. It was eventually released from that obligation in exchange for not disputing the border with Northern Ireland.
The moles don't seem to be responding much to the whackings.
And it looks to me like there may be a new mole appearing in the West Midlands - Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Dudley etc., which would be a big one to whack.
That’s been around for weeks. The question was always when rather than whether it would start running away and need locking down.
Equally, it’s a bit doubtful how effective a local lockdown would be there given large numbers of people would probably simply ignore it.
Should I be worried about the "15" in Redbridge a few days ago?
@MaxPB project fear just isn’t going to work this time.
I don't think it wil either, but it will become project reality. Ultimately the argument for the Union needs to be won on an emotional level, not enough Scottish people feel emotionally attached to the Union.
Even with no deal, the government has the option of firing up the printing presses and staving off economic Armageddon for a couple of years until a deal can be made. Scotland runs a gigantic structural deficit, it spends too much and taxes too little. That will cause serious austerity and tax rises after independence, it is inevitable.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
You want a large share of the UK’s IOUs?
That’s generous of you.
We will be debt free and the English unionist Nat West Bank will never be near being the central bank.
An independent Scotland would get no share of assets unless you also took on a share of debts.
I don't know why that is even controversial. That or some trade off for it would be part of the cost of independence. Untangling such a longstanding union will be complicated and involve difficulty - it was bad enough some Brexiteers pretending it would all be easy without people pretending the same with Sindy, which is much more complicated. There's no need to blow smoke up people's arses about such things, I'd be astonished if it would persuade someone who has made the switch to be an Indy supporter to change their mind.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Isn't that the European Central Bank?
It may well be now but they all have had their own as well, so we will have our own or we will also have the ECB , only a foolish moron would not understand that if 200 countries can manage it poor old Scotland can manage it.
You can certainly have a central bank the issue will be however what rate you can borrow at. The ECB wont be available I suspect for ten years or so as I think you have to be in the euro for that and it will take at least ten years for scotland to meet all the criteria even if allowed immediate entry to the eu which frankly I don't believe you will be but its one that only time will tell on.
Fantasies are getting bigger and bigger.
Well we will see won't we Malcolm as I said I support scottish independence but I don't think it will happen in my lifetime because when it comes to it your countrymen won't vote for it.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
We do not have a 9% deficit, we have made up numbers by Westminster. It would run a balanced budget and borrow sensibly , currently it borrows peanuts as that is all England allows. # We will do just fine.
The "made up numbers" by the Scottish government say you have a 7% deficit, while the UK as a whole is 1.1%:
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
We do not have a 9% deficit, we have made up numbers by Westminster. It would run a balanced budget and borrow sensibly , currently it borrows peanuts as that is all England allows. # We will do just fine.
You do. Whether or not you believe the numbers is irrelevant.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
Always the imaginary benevolent England paying all our bills, utter rubbish, as I said you can go back 50 years and we have a large surplus even allowing for funding English ( London ) infrastructure). WE will do just fine when we cast off the yoke and are able to produce real figures and not the rigged ones from London.
Scotland had received a net subsidy to its economy of between 9% and 11% per year for at least the last 10 years.
Again, whether or not you believe it is irrelevant. I actually don't give a fuck either but I'm waiting for the better half to get ready for dinner and this kills the time.
So it looks like it was three crew/six passengers.
Very, very fortunate there were so few people on it. Imagine if it had been full. It would have been the worst disaster since Ladbroke Grove, if not Harrow. But that will hardly be any comfort to the families of those killed.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
You want a large share of the UK’s IOUs?
That’s generous of you.
We will be debt free and the English unionist Nat West Bank will never be near being the central bank.
An independent Scotland would get no share of assets unless you also took on a share of debts.
I don't know why that is even controversial. That or some trade off for it would be part of the cost of independence. Untangling such a longstanding union will be complicated and involve difficulty - it was bad enough some Brexiteers pretending it would all be easy without people pretending the same with Sindy, which is much more complicated. There's no need to blow smoke up people's arses about such things, I'd be astonished if it would persuade someone who has made the switch to be an Indy supporter to change their mind.
I think that the effects of Brexit remain massively overstated but in every respect, share of trade, length of union, integration of laws, shared institutions, shared currency and debt, independence for Scotland is just on a completely different scale. And when you think it has taken nearly 5 years to get close to implementing Brexit you really have to wonder how long it might take and what the economic consequences of that uncertainty might be.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
Scottish pounds you halfwit , as per our existing currency.
Backed by which central bank?
It's own central bank just like most countries in the world, which central bank supports Belgium , Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden , Norway , Iceland , and on and on . What in tiny English minds makes them think Scotland is the only country unable to have its own currency and run its own treasury
Which is fine, but you can't do that and run a 9% deficit indefinitely at the same time. It means an end to free prescriptions, introduction of student fees etc... or significantly higher taxes on income, production and wealth. Like it or not an independent Scotland and the McPound doesn't have the same capacity as sterling, it's not a reserve currency and funds don't already hold £1.2tn in paper they are unwilling to trash. Take a look at all the countries you mention, none of them run a fiscal deficit anything like Scotland would have.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
We do not have a 9% deficit, we have made up numbers by Westminster. It would run a balanced budget and borrow sensibly , currently it borrows peanuts as that is all England allows. # We will do just fine.
The "made up numbers" by the Scottish government say you have a 7% deficit, while the UK as a whole is 1.1%:
@MaxPB project fear just isn’t going to work this time.
Which is quite remarkable, given that Scots will have before them, in full sight, a fully worked example of what happens if you disrupt trading patterns, create borders where there were none before, ignore the practical realities, and alienate your much bigger neighbour, all in the name of a chimera.
It will be just one more in the list of catastrophic misjudgements made by voters in the UK since 2016.
The UK is going to have an enormous debt at the end of Covid, much of it accrued in supporting the English AND SCottish economies, paying for the furloughs of English AND Scottish workers (and Welsh and Norn as well, of course)
The idea that Scotland would be allowed to walk away from this shared debt, undertaken to help Scotland and England alike, is not just morally appalling, it is actively impossible. It would guarantee a vastly hostile reaction from the English (and their government). England would make Scotland pay, one way or another. It would be brutal. England is ten times the size of Scotland.
The English can be an apathetic and foolish people, but they won't be taken for idiots forever. Not when it comes to hard money.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
You want a large share of the UK’s IOUs?
That’s generous of you.
We will be debt free and the English unionist Nat West Bank will never be near being the central bank.
An independent Scotland would get no share of assets unless you also took on a share of debts.
I don't know why that is even controversial. That or some trade off for it would be part of the cost of independence. Untangling such a longstanding union will be complicated and involve difficulty - it was bad enough some Brexiteers pretending it would all be easy without people pretending the same with Sindy, which is much more complicated. There's no need to blow smoke up people's arses about such things, I'd be astonished if it would persuade someone who has made the switch to be an Indy supporter to change their mind.
The reason Salmond failed was because ultimately, he wasn’t being truthful about these sort of trade offs and everyone who was not already a rabid nationalist could see that. It meant that either he didn’t know what he was talking about, or he was lying, and in neither case did he command conviction.
The question at the next referendum is whether people will care, or whether they will conclude, like the Irish, that although they would be worse off financially independence would still be preferable.
The UK is going to have an enormous debt at the end of Covid, much of it accrued in supporting the English AND SCottish economies, paying for the furloughs of English AND Scottish workers (and Welsh and Norn as well, of course)
The idea that Scotland would be allowed to walk away from this shared debt, undertaken to help Scotland and England alike, is not just morally appalling, it is actively impossible. It would guarantee a vastly hostile reaction from the English (and their government). England would make Scotland pay, one way or another. It would be brutal. England is ten times the size of Scotland.
The English can be an apathetic and foolish people, but they won't be taken for idiots forever. Not when it comes to hard money.
Actually, that’s not quite correct. On 2018 figures it’s just over eleven times the size economically:
Linda Fabiani (East Kilbride) announced today she will retire at next year's Scottish elections.
18 MSPs have announced their intentions to retire so far. The current list of confirmed retirements ahead of 2021 elections is
Bruce Crawford (born in 1955): MSP since 1999 Mike Russell (1953), MSP from 1999 to 2003 and then since 2007 Stewart Stevenson (1946), MSP since 2001 Aileen Campbell (1980), MSP since 2007 Richard Lyle (1950), MSP since 2011 Gail Ross (1977), MSP since 2016 Angus MacDonald (1963): MSP since 2011 Gil Paternson (1942): MSP from 1999 to 2003 and then since 2007 Linda Fabiani (1956): MSP since 1999
ex SNP Mark McDonald (1980): MSP since 2011
Conservatives Ruth Davidson (1978): MSP since 2011 Margaret Mitchell (1952): MSP since 2003 Adam Tomkins (1969): MSP since 2016
Labour Elaine Smith (1963): MSP since 1999 Mary Fee (1954): MSP since 2011 Neil Findlay (1969): MSP since 2011 Iain Gray (1957): MSP from 1999 to 2003 and then since 2007 David Stewart (1956): MSP since 2007. Previously MSP from 1997 to 2005
Greens John Finnie (1956), MSP since 2011 (first election as SNP)
___
MSPs can retire at 65 with the full pension they are entitled to based on number of years served. They can claim a reduced pension starting from 55, with a reduction of 4% of each year before 65.
@MaxPB project fear just isn’t going to work this time.
Setting aside for one moment all the positives and negatives both of Brexit and Scexit, one gathers the impression that the next vote on the latter will end up going the same way as the first vote on on the former: a majority has basically made up its mind that it doesn't like political union and, when push comes to shove, will not be dissuaded from ending it. Whether either process will end well or not, only time will tell.
Of course, one key difference between these processes is that, in the longer term, Brexit is probably reversible, assuming that the EU continues to hold together. Scexit isn't.
In other developments, the Covid hospitalisation figure is now down to 1,001, so I think there's a decent chance that my prediction from last week - that it'll be down into three figures by Thursday - is liable to be proven correct. A little piece of good news, at least.
The sooner Scotland gets to control its own destiny and pay its own bills the better.
Yes, but in what currency?
A Scottish Pound makes the most sense to me. Like the Irish had pre-Euro.
What they call it is pretty much irrelevant. The important thing is who stands behind it.
The Scottish treasury, yet another halfwit who does not understand how countries run and thinks only Scotland in the whole world cannot have a treasury. How thick can you be , our share of all the loot from Bank of UK will be deposited in our new Treasury and we will run just like the 200 or so other countries in the world run, FFS think before you write such crap.
You want a large share of the UK’s IOUs?
That’s generous of you.
We will be debt free and the English unionist Nat West Bank will never be near being the central bank.
An independent Scotland would get no share of assets unless you also took on a share of debts.
I don't know why that is even controversial. That or some trade off for it would be part of the cost of independence. Untangling such a longstanding union will be complicated and involve difficulty - it was bad enough some Brexiteers pretending it would all be easy without people pretending the same with Sindy, which is much more complicated. There's no need to blow smoke up people's arses about such things, I'd be astonished if it would persuade someone who has made the switch to be an Indy supporter to change their mind.
The reason Salmond failed was because ultimately, he wasn’t being truthful about these sort of trade offs and everyone who was not already a rabid nationalist could see that. It meant that either he didn’t know what he was talking about, or he was lying, and in neither case did he command conviction.
The question at the next referendum is whether people will care, or whether they will conclude, like the Irish, that although they would be worse off financially independence would still be preferable.
Scotland was full of posters the last time boasting how much public spending could increase once we had our own budget, how many more teachers, doctors and nurses we could have. It was unmitigated crap and thankfully the majority did not believe it although depressingly many did.
I really don't believe that the SNP will be able to run such arguments again. If we went independent we would be looking at cuts in public spending of around 20% to balance the budget. How many hospitals, schools and roads is independence worth?
For those to whom this is their Valhalla none of this matters but I think that they are outnumbered by those conned into believing the lies in the Scottish Government's White paper.
The UK is going to have an enormous debt at the end of Covid, much of it accrued in supporting the English AND SCottish economies, paying for the furloughs of English AND Scottish workers (and Welsh and Norn as well, of course)
The idea that Scotland would be allowed to walk away from this shared debt, undertaken to help Scotland and England alike, is not just morally appalling, it is actively impossible. It would guarantee a vastly hostile reaction from the English (and their government). England would make Scotland pay, one way or another. It would be brutal. England is ten times the size of Scotland.
The English can be an apathetic and foolish people, but they won't be taken for idiots forever. Not when it comes to hard money.
You're sounding like HYUFD. No tanks yet?
The Scottish independence movement has generally not suggested anything more than a rational share out - the problem is the need for a plan B, clean break, no UK assets except the fixed ones on Scottish soil/waters, in the event that talks collapse thanks to rUK intransigence, or more likely just don't get anywhere (what has happened with Brexit makes this an even more likely possibility). I think it was the unwillingness of the UK Gmt to even discuss such matters in advance of indyref 1 that forced the Treasury issued a notice in, I think, late 2013 that the rUK would retain all debt in London (but, presumably, agree some sort of debt instrument with the renewed Scottish state).
The UK is going to have an enormous debt at the end of Covid, much of it accrued in supporting the English AND SCottish economies, paying for the furloughs of English AND Scottish workers (and Welsh and Norn as well, of course)
The idea that Scotland would be allowed to walk away from this shared debt, undertaken to help Scotland and England alike, is not just morally appalling, it is actively impossible. It would guarantee a vastly hostile reaction from the English (and their government). England would make Scotland pay, one way or another. It would be brutal. England is ten times the size of Scotland.
The English can be an apathetic and foolish people, but they won't be taken for idiots forever. Not when it comes to hard money.
It's not without international consequences either, if a nation sees fit to walk away from one set of obligations then it sets a pretty awful precedent. They will be considered a nation in default at that point which means borrowing from speculators in USD, GBP and other foreign currencies because no one will be willing to buy paper sold under Scottish law in Edinburgh.
There are lots of arguments to be made in favour of SIndy, but I'm not sure walking away from the debt is one of them.
Comments
Johnson is the wrong man at the wrong time. Suspect he knows it as well.
It isn't that long ago the idea of six Tory MPs would have been considered brilliant remarkably good for the Tories. Cameron would have been happy to get six. Especially considering it is six time as many MPs as SLAB got.
This article on QAnon is excellent too. The return of Salem Witchtrials and Mcarthyist conspiracies.
https://twitter.com/JeffreyGoldberg/status/1293388230507859971?s=09
Poor kids.
That’s generous of you.
Equally, it’s a bit doubtful how effective a local lockdown would be there given large numbers of people would probably simply ignore it.
When you start doing door to door swabbing you find a lot of mild disease. Important for stamping it out, but not to lose sleep over.
(Although I'd note that Biden's lead has started rising again on the 538 tracker.)
Go on Gav. There's still time to make the situation even more confusing.
We will need to see the next reporting peak, but the last one, 3-6th August doesn't indicate a continued upward growth. Single swallows, summers etc. Something to watch.
The problem for the continuance of the Union is that Johnson's vision for the UK settlement is anathema to at least half of Scottish Unionists, let alone those that support independence.
He unleashed a torrent of what I presume was uncomplimentary words as the ditherer-in-charge. In a what I presume was an Indian language.
Who, wilting under the strain, muttered "there are people watching" to him.
The senior consultant used, looked at me, said "Sorry" and then dropped another torrent of abuse. In English this time.
A magnificent performance.
It is rare to see a person actually shrinking - I think another ten minutes and the doctor under the lash would have been 6 inches tall.
Hotspot? What hotspot?
It would be good if they did some intensive testing in non-hotspot areas, as a control.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_pound
It traded 1:1 with Sterling for decades, but wiki doesn't mention who guaranteed it. There used to be a "Sterling Area" which included, I think, Australia and NZ. Was Ireland part of this? And history does not relate whether the "Irish Free State" was saddled with a share of our post-WW1 national debt.
Second Test at Southampton starts tomorrow. PBers have long been accustomed to profiting from laying the draw in five day games except when the weather is doubtful. If you believe the BBC forecast you would have to think that there could be a lot of interruptions. Otoh if you believe Netweather there could be a full five days, in which case the chances of a draw are much more remote than the odds of 2.9 (Betfair) would suggest.
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/7-day/26442~Southampton
Dodgy business betting on weather forecasts. Weathermen are rather apt to change their minds (and seldom admit a mistake when wrong!), but if Netweather are anywhere near right this looks a good betting opportunity.
I'd suggests laying to begin with but be quick to hedge as the contest evolves.
Again, I've told you this plenty of times. I'd still go for it, even knowing that, but if you do there's no running to papa England and asking for a bailout. You will be on your own.
The Denmark Central bank has assets of ±£60 billion. And a long credit history. It was founded in 1818.
How much should the Scottish Central Bank have in assets, and where will it get it from?
For perspective, £60 billion is about one year's tax take in Scotland. Scotland spends £75 billion a year.
So it will have to find one year's tax take at least and £15 billion a year, just to stand still.
We will do just fine.
WE will do just fine when we cast off the yoke and are able to produce real figures and not the rigged ones from London.
What would Scotland offer?
It will be just one more in the list of catastrophic misjudgements made by voters in the UK since 2016.
Even with no deal, the government has the option of firing up the printing presses and staving off economic Armageddon for a couple of years until a deal can be made. Scotland runs a gigantic structural deficit, it spends too much and taxes too little. That will cause serious austerity and tax rises after independence, it is inevitable.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers/
Again, whether or not you believe it is irrelevant. I actually don't give a fuck either but I'm waiting for the better half to get ready for dinner and this kills the time.
Very, very fortunate there were so few people on it. Imagine if it had been full. It would have been the worst disaster since Ladbroke Grove, if not Harrow. But that will hardly be any comfort to the families of those killed.
Roots go far deeper.
The idea that Scotland would be allowed to walk away from this shared debt, undertaken to help Scotland and England alike, is not just morally appalling, it is actively impossible. It would guarantee a vastly hostile reaction from the English (and their government). England would make Scotland pay, one way or another. It would be brutal. England is ten times the size of Scotland.
The English can be an apathetic and foolish people, but they won't be taken for idiots forever. Not when it comes to hard money.
The question at the next referendum is whether people will care, or whether they will conclude, like the Irish, that although they would be worse off financially independence would still be preferable.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/regionaleconomicactivitybygrossdomesticproductuk/1998to2018/pdf#page2
But it is ten times in terms of population - 55 to 5.5 million.
18 MSPs have announced their intentions to retire so far. The current list of confirmed retirements ahead of 2021 elections is
Bruce Crawford (born in 1955): MSP since 1999
Mike Russell (1953), MSP from 1999 to 2003 and then since 2007
Stewart Stevenson (1946), MSP since 2001
Aileen Campbell (1980), MSP since 2007
Richard Lyle (1950), MSP since 2011
Gail Ross (1977), MSP since 2016
Angus MacDonald (1963): MSP since 2011
Gil Paternson (1942): MSP from 1999 to 2003 and then since 2007
Linda Fabiani (1956): MSP since 1999
ex SNP
Mark McDonald (1980): MSP since 2011
Conservatives
Ruth Davidson (1978): MSP since 2011
Margaret Mitchell (1952): MSP since 2003
Adam Tomkins (1969): MSP since 2016
Labour
Elaine Smith (1963): MSP since 1999
Mary Fee (1954): MSP since 2011
Neil Findlay (1969): MSP since 2011
Iain Gray (1957): MSP from 1999 to 2003 and then since 2007
David Stewart (1956): MSP since 2007. Previously MSP from 1997 to 2005
Greens
John Finnie (1956), MSP since 2011 (first election as SNP)
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MSPs can retire at 65 with the full pension they are entitled to based on number of years served. They can claim a reduced pension starting from 55, with a reduction of 4% of each year before 65.
Of course, one key difference between these processes is that, in the longer term, Brexit is probably reversible, assuming that the EU continues to hold together. Scexit isn't.
In other developments, the Covid hospitalisation figure is now down to 1,001, so I think there's a decent chance that my prediction from last week - that it'll be down into three figures by Thursday - is liable to be proven correct. A little piece of good news, at least.
I really don't believe that the SNP will be able to run such arguments again. If we went independent we would be looking at cuts in public spending of around 20% to balance the budget. How many hospitals, schools and roads is independence worth?
For those to whom this is their Valhalla none of this matters but I think that they are outnumbered by those conned into believing the lies in the Scottish Government's White paper.
The Scottish independence movement has generally not suggested anything more than a rational share out - the problem is the need for a plan B, clean break, no UK assets except the fixed ones on Scottish soil/waters, in the event that talks collapse thanks to rUK intransigence, or more likely just don't get anywhere (what has happened with Brexit makes this an even more likely possibility). I think it was the unwillingness of the UK Gmt to even discuss such matters in advance of indyref 1 that forced the Treasury issued a notice in, I think, late 2013 that the rUK would retain all debt in London (but, presumably, agree some sort of debt instrument with the renewed Scottish state).
There are lots of arguments to be made in favour of SIndy, but I'm not sure walking away from the debt is one of them.