Ah well, Kamala was the only one I wasn't green on, not too big of loss though.
Perhaps what clinched it was the BLM protests. A Black woman, but no de funder of police or radical socialist.
She’s our local Senator. As effective as a chocolate teapot.
My wife has just announced that she’d rather vote for Hillary than Kamala (and given her history with Hillary that’s quite a thing).
She’s probably going to write in Jeb Bush as a strange sort of protest...
I don't think Biden will be sweating on the result in California, albeit the votes may not have been counted in time for January.
California will nevertheless bring in a lot of $ for the campaign.
Sure, which is why Hilary spent a lot of time there rather than in those rather dull rust bucket states that....cost her the election. Will the money be greater because there is a Californian senator on the ticket? I doubt it, Trump motivates his opponents every bit as much as he does his base.
Worth remembering, of course, that Pete Buttigieg was the most effective California fund raiser...
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
Do Americans realise that they’re unique in the democratic world for being unable to get election results out within a day or two?
How to overturn the politisisation of the democratic process itself is a more difficult question, when everything is devolved to the individual states, then to counties and cities to actually run the election with no national guidelines.
UK a does a pretty good job without massive investment, just a large hall full of people to count ballot papers and a small group of apolitical boundary commissioners.
I think the problem is that America has become so polarised and Trump has poisoned the well so badly wrt manual vote counts that if he loses by small margins in a number of states there will be accusations of state officials hiring partisan counters, the same is true on the other side. There just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
And I got a bunch of shit from my left wing friends. But you know what, they were right and I was wrong.
The only thing that matters in a democracy is that you accept the will of the electorate. If you don't accept it, then I don't care how aligned you are with me on tax policy or education or anything else. Ultimately, every thing else is secondary. Because everything else can be fixed at the ballot box.
Presuming, of course, that you believe in the ballot box.
If Trump wins, he’ll be held more or less in check by the House and Senate because that’s the way our system of government is set up. Not even Republicans are eager to follow Trump’s lead.
How does this person still have a job? How can your job be to comment on politics and not see what was coming?
2016 saw an awful lot of fucking normalcy bias and no mistake.
And by normalcy bias I mean the completely pretend made up normalcy that the belt-way journalists live in with honourable and respected opposition and the solemn profundity of the presidential office blah, blah,blah with the corrupt kleptocracy of the Bush administration consigned to the memory hole.
The GOP had Ted Cruz as the challenger to Trump. JFC. How could people not see what was happening?
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
The A-level and Highers filters for university entrance are kaput. And the pandemic is forcing universities to provide or expand on-line courses. This means that universities will have to take increased numbers into their first year and thin out the cohort themselves in the course of the year. Some of that happens in a normal year, it will just be a bigger thing this year.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Cummings didn't break quarantine, the Police investigated that and cleared him of that. All that was left was the Barnard Castle trip.
The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:
"Given my role as a Senior Advisor to the government I clearly should have paid more attention to the roles. At the time, I was thinking solely of my family and what was best for them, which I'm sure you understand. I apologise for my breach of lockdown guidance and for my subsequent trip to Barnard Castle."
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
But the scheme isnt meant to be a healthy eating scheme its meant ( I presume) to be a scheme to encourage people to get out and about . I am not a big fan of gimmicks like this but its certainly had a lot of people get into restaurants. As many people cannto afford to eat in posher restaurants it had to include the likes of Macdonalds etc . You can actually eat a lot less healthily in posher restaurants anyway.
This recession will be more v-shaped than ever before. Comparisons to other recessions is insane because never before has there been a recession where healthy companies ceased trading because they were ordered to do so, then resumed trading as if little had ever been wrong 2-3 months later - with the staff getting their wages paid by the state in the interim.
What matters is the real drop which seems like it might be about 6% as it stands, not 20%
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
Mike's pie charts suggest in the court of public opinion Durham Police were wrong.
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
I wonder if Steve Kinnock was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations of Kinnocks to walk nearly 800 yards , 800 YARDS i tell you, to hog a great big cake to leave on the steps of his ancestors before playing around with other peoples deckchairs ordering taxis .
The Government shut the economy down in April and May, everything was shut, there was nothing to spend money on. Seriously what did you expect to happen?
Its how the economy performs when it is reopened that matters. And so far it looks to be performing very well.
The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:
The GDP figures explain why the government wants to argue with ice cream over the fate of a few thousand refugees. Anything rather than have the focus on those numbers. It will work short-term, but the reality of what we face is not going away.
The A-level and Highers filters for university entrance are kaput. And the pandemic is forcing universities to provide or expand on-line courses. This means that universities will have to take increased numbers into their first year and thin out the cohort themselves in the course of the year. Some of that happens in a normal year, it will just be a bigger thing this year.
Exactly.
(Which has been, of course, LSE's policy for decades.)
The Government shut the economy down in April and May, everything was shut, there was nothing to spend money on. Seriously what did you expect to happen?
Its how the economy performs when it is reopened that matters. And so far it looks to be performing very well.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
In all this discussion of A-level results don’t forget that even in a normal year there is an element of luck about what grades people get. Other than the very best who I know will get A*s (and it is only in Maths and usually the sciences where even that is sure) the grades are approximate: if I think someone is a B student then I am not surprised by ether an A or a C. This is not a perfect system being replaced by chaos as is sometimes depicted in the press. In fact I expect fewer outrageous results where an entire class gets marked down several grades because an examiner fouled up.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Cummings didn't break quarantine, the Police investigated that and cleared him of that. All that was left was the Barnard Castle trip.
The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:
"Given my role as a Senior Advisor to the government I clearly should have paid more attention to the roles. At the time, I was thinking solely of my family and what was best for them, which I'm sure you understand. I apologise for my breach of lockdown guidance and for my subsequent trip to Barnard Castle."
" and for any other trips there are eye witnesses for"
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Teacher grades are not being used in the majority of cases.
Parts of the domestic economy are performing well. Other parts less so - with foreign tourism dead how much of the hole are Brits filling by going camping in the UK? I suspect nowhere near all of it. And we know that big town and city centres are significantly quieter than they have been with commercial property price slides clearly there.
PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.
The GDP figures explain why the government wants to argue with ice cream over the fate of a few thousand refugees. Anything rather than have the focus on those numbers. It will work short-term, but the reality of what we face is not going away.
GDP figures mean fuck all to the ordinary person. The government ending furlough on the other hand...
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
Mike's pie charts suggest in the court of public opinion Durham Police were wrong.
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
I wonder if Steve Kinnock was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations of Kinnocks to walk nearly 800 yards , 800 YARDS i tell you, to hog a great big cake to leave on the steps of his ancestors before playing around with other peoples deckchairs ordering taxis .
I have no idea what any of that means.
Good
I was hoping for an explanation.
Ok then it was just a light hearted play on Neil Kinnocks most famous speeches
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
How is it stupid?
The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
There's a maximum "refund" per customer of ten quid isn't there? So, a 100% increase would benefit KFC and McDonalds, but that's about it.
On GDP this is what I have pencilled in - July +7%, August +4%, September +2% and October +1%. The last two are based on putting my finger in the air and pent up demand running dry and the weather becoming unhelpful.
The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:
His policy is never to apologise, for anything.
I know. That's the policy in the US as well.
And - frankly - it sucks.
I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
There's a maximum "refund" per customer of ten quid isn't there? So, a 100% increase would benefit KFC and McDonalds, but that's about it.
Or put it up to whatever the formula says is the percentage for a £10 rebate. Basicially the law allows restaurants to charge what they like so doubt anything can be classed as fraud
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (where not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:
His policy is never to apologise, for anything.
I know. That's the policy in the US as well.
And - frankly - it sucks.
I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
Considering the scheme is only open Monday to Wednesday and the price (and discount) must be printed on the bill then if the prices were claimed to be double Monday-Wednesday then I think that would be somewhat open to investigation.
If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
Older gentlemen - if bits of you are hanging out go get it sorted. Heard via my brother that the old man has been whipped into hospital for an unscheduled hernia operation after he started to resemble the monster at the end of Alien Resurrection. "What Hernia" was my response to the notion that he's "had it for years but has been managing it".
Obviously. Hence the sudden need for emergency surgery FFS. Chaps - go see the doc if bits of you start falling out. Especially when your local hospital is Covid central...
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
How is it stupid?
The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
I would have gone out this week anyway, granted probably not on a Wednesday.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Durham Constabulary were effectively ordered to come to that conclusion by the Attorney General, who went for the Barbossa defence ('they're more what you might call guidelines'). The Attorney General, let us not forget, was effectively appointed by Dominic Cummings.
This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.
However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.
He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.
I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.
But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.
The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
Parts of the domestic economy are performing well. Other parts less so - with foreign tourism dead how much of the hole are Brits filling by going camping in the UK? I suspect nowhere near all of it. And we know that big town and city centres are significantly quieter than they have been with commercial property price slides clearly there.
PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.
Foreign tourists dont generally come over to the UK and camp or even go to the seaside wheras staycation Brits dont generally come to look at history and museums and culture (especially having to wear a mask to do it) - So they are not replacing like for like at all . I think a large part of the mess of covid -19 lockdown decisions are only starting to emerge (the first one being the A level and GCSE results) - the economy will follow
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
Considering the scheme is only open Monday to Wednesday and the price (and discount) must be printed on the bill then if the prices were claimed to be double Monday-Wednesday then I think that would be somewhat open to investigation.
If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
i agree it might not be the most commercially best decision but I was just saying I doubt its technically fraud
I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
He doesn't think it was wrong. And neither does BoZo
Why should they, when through a lifetime of sometimes serious indiscretions there are no consequences. Johnson conspiring with Darius Guppy to assault a journalist is just put down to "Boris, being Boris".
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
That's the Bedfords of this world that will be stuffed, then. If you live in the outskirts of London you won't have a lot of space, and working from home will have limited appeal. If you work further out, it's different.
BUT.
Here's the thing.
We've moved to working from home with few problems. But that's because we have an established team. The tech guys - for example - all know the codebase, and know who is responsible for each line of code.
We're bringing on our first new person for four or five months. It's going to take him longer to get up to speed.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Durham Constabulary were effectively ordered to come to that conclusion by the Attorney General, who went for the Barbossa defence ('they're more what you might call guidelines'). The Attorney General, let us not forget, was effectively appointed by Dominic Cummings.
This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.
However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.
He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.
I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.
But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.
The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
The only reason we're talking about it is that OGH who is a Remainer who already disliked Cummings before the story broke brought it up.
Not because it is the top news story. Its not even a top political news story. In the real world the top news stories are that the UK is officially in recession and A-Level grades and in politics Biden picking Harris as his running mate.. Also in the BBC's "most read" news stories is a dinosaur discovered on the Isle of Wight, a story about Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson, Stephen Lawrence and multiple Coronavirus stories - none of them about Cummings.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
A few quick points: 1. All off the franchises are now being managed by the DfT directly (via "DfT Operator of Last Resort Holdings ltd") or indirectly via a fixed fee management contract. Not a man jack of them is financially viable or ever will be again on their franchise contracts. You can't renationalise what the state always owned but I can't see how the franchise system survives this 2. HS2 was needed due to a lack of paths on the southern West Coast Main Line. Fewer passengers means they can run a slightly reduced frequency (2 trains an hour London to Manchester etc) which gives enough paths for freight - especially if they do a few other non-WCML route upgrades 3. HS2 may not be needed but "Northern Powerhouse Rail" is needed. A Pennine Base Tunnel was recognised as needed 150+ year ago and there simply isn't the capacity or a straight enough alignment to run at any speed between Manchester and Leeds/Sheffield 4. Forget your V-shaped recovery. February 2020 was the apogee. We orbit lower from now on.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Durham Constabulary were effectively ordered to come to that conclusion by the Attorney General, who went for the Barbossa defence ('they're more what you might call guidelines'). The Attorney General, let us not forget, was effectively appointed by Dominic Cummings.
This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.
However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.
He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.
I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.
But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.
The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
A very well constructed argument. If I was a juror the judge would be wearing a black cap by now!
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
How is it stupid?
The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
It is certainly having the desired effect (which puts it in the upper quartile of government policy). People were wandering around here earlier last week moaning that all the restaurants were full.
I guess the two potential challenges are whether it was the most cost effective way of delivering support to the restaurant sector, and to what extent encouraging so many people into restaurants at the current moment pushes up the infection rate.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
Because mocks are not standardized across schools, there is no externally moderation, you don’t know if the questions were spoon fed and there is no standardized marking system but apart from that they are fine.
Neither is teacher assessment.
Cancelling the exams was such a terrible idea. The government massively jumped the gun on it and now the kids are paying the price. If they had held firm and said they were aiming for a summer sitting and just allowed for grades being worse due to the teaching being a bit dodgy in the spring/summer term.
We ran all our exams, the timing was probably a bit generous to the students but that all cancelled itself out IMO.
My low opinion of many teachers has dropped even lower.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (where not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Most TOCs run at a loss anyway, so in theory the franchising system could come back just with a greater level of overall public subsidy. I guess it was easier to stick them all on management contracts for the time being. Those contracts are appropriate for London Overground type operations. They are less effective for operations that compete with other modes. The longer distance services can benefit from the franchisee seeking to increase usage by advertising, altering service patterns etc.
But as long as people have to wear masks on trains, they are going to struggle to attract business, in my opinion. I expect things will stay as they are until next summer when we might have a better idea of where things are heading in terms of a vaccine. As you said in another post, the days of the gold card may be over.
Parts of the domestic economy are performing well. Other parts less so - with foreign tourism dead how much of the hole are Brits filling by going camping in the UK? I suspect nowhere near all of it. And we know that big town and city centres are significantly quieter than they have been with commercial property price slides clearly there.
PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.
Foreign tourists dont generally come over to the UK and camp or even go to the seaside wheras staycation Brits dont generally come to look at history and museums and culture (especially having to wear a mask to do it) - So they are not replacing like for like at all . I think a large part of the mess of covid -19 lockdown decisions are only starting to emerge (the first one being the A level and GCSE results) - the economy will follow
Yes I know that was point point. Foreign tourists come here and shower London / Edinburgh / Stratford with dollar. British holiday in the UK tourists are rushing out to buy tents. The loss of revenue in the economy will surely be large, massive in some areas.
And ministers, a "staycation" is where you stay at home. A holiday in the UK is a holiday. You patronising out of touch fools.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Durham Constabulary were effectively ordered to come to that conclusion by the Attorney General, who went for the Barbossa defence ('they're more what you might call guidelines'). The Attorney General, let us not forget, was effectively appointed by Dominic Cummings.
This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.
However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.
He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.
I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.
But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.
The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
The only reason we're talking about it is that OGH who is a Remainer who already disliked Cummings before the story broke brought it up.
Not because it is the top news story. Its not even a top political news story. In the real world the top news stories are that the UK is officially in recession and A-Level grades and in politics Biden picking Harris as his running mate.. Also in the BBC's "most read" news stories is a dinosaur discovered on the Isle of Wight, a story about Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson, Stephen Lawrence and multiple Coronavirus stories - none of them about Cummings.
A dinosaur found on the Isle of Wight is hardly news. There are manifold dinosaurs of the Conservative variety on the Isle of Wight.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
That's the Bedfords of this world that will be stuffed, then. If you live in the outskirts of London you won't have a lot of space, and working from home will have limited appeal. If you work further out, it's different.
BUT.
Here's the thing.
We've moved to working from home with few problems. But that's because we have an established team. The tech guys - for example - all know the codebase, and know who is responsible for each line of code.
We're bringing on our first new person for four or five months. It's going to take him longer to get up to speed.
Physical distance to colleagues matters.
It does. It’s much more of a problem for new grads and starters.
My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.
Something like that.
The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.
The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.
Crossrail2 is definitely dead.
What have they built for HS2? Site clearance in London and Birmingham isn't constructing a railway. Not a single mile of embankment or tunnel yet built or even started. Cancel now and they will just build something else at Euston, OOC and Curzon Street.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Cummings didn't break quarantine, the Police investigated that and cleared him of that. All that was left was the Barnard Castle trip.
The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:
"Given my role as a Senior Advisor to the government I clearly should have paid more attention to the roles. At the time, I was thinking solely of my family and what was best for them, which I'm sure you understand. I apologise for my breach of lockdown guidance and for my subsequent trip to Barnard Castle."
" and for any other trips there are eye witnesses for"
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side. Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction? Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket. Its all hyperbole nonsense.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
They've just started tunnelling.
And by the time they stop and the line is ready to open this is going to be a distant memory. I think the commuter lines may well see a semi permanent drop in utilisation, longer lines less so.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.
Crossrail2 is definitely dead.
Yeah, they spent this weekend putting in a new bridge over the M42.
The raw figures are grim. Britain has the worst overall COVID-19 death toll in Europe, with more than 46,000 dead according to official figures, while also suffering the Continent’s second-worst “excess death” tally per capita, more than double that in France and eight times higher than Germany’s. It did not protect its oldest and most vulnerable, who died in nursing homes in appalling numbers. It allowed the disease to spread throughout the country rather than isolating it in one area. It failed to close its borders in good time, abandoned contact tracing too early, set targets that were missed, designed government programs that didn’t work, and somehow contrived to let the three most senior figures overseeing its pandemic response, including the prime minister, catch the very virus they were fighting. Now it faces the worst recession of any developed country, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
In remarks echoed, though perhaps not as colorfully, by politicians, officials, and diplomats, one figure close to Johnson told me of his experience at the heart of the government machine these past few months: “It’s a fucking disgrace.”
As Ian Boyd, a professor and member of SAGE, put it: “The reality is, there has been a major systemic failure.”
When the crisis came, too much of Britain’s core infrastructure simply failed, according to senior officials and experts involved in the pandemic response. Expert advisory committees proved too slow and ponderous, with not enough dissenting voices; crisis-response cells could not cope and had to be bypassed; the Cabinet Office buckled under the strain; the NHS had no adequate way of sharing data; authorities could not meet the sudden need for mass testing; the Foreign Office could not get people home fast enough; the Department of Health could not design a contact-tracing app that worked; the government overall could not sufficiently procure key pandemic equipment; and Downing Street generally gave the impression of lurching from one crisis to another.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
How is it stupid?
The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
I would have gone out this week anyway, granted probably not on a Wednesday.
You may have but that doesn't change the fact that millions of others wouldn't. have. We are seeing reports of restaurants packed Monday to Wednesday - there is not the slightest chance at all that would have happened had it not been for this scheme. The fact you are on a Wednesday is again working as intended.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (where not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Most TOCs run at a loss anyway, so in theory the franchising system could come back just with a greater level of overall public subsidy. I guess it was easier to stick them all on management contracts for the time being. Those contracts are appropriate for London Overground type operations. They are less effective for operations that compete with other modes. The longer distance services can benefit from the franchisee seeking to increase usage by advertising, altering service patterns etc.
But as long as people have to wear masks on trains, they are going to struggle to attract business, in my opinion. I expect things will stay as they are until next summer when we might have a better idea of where things are heading in terms of a vaccine. As you said in another post, the days of the gold card may be over.
Yes, they’re in a holding pattern at the moment. But don’t forget that the Government was trying to gradually reduce subsidy and make them all more sustainable. And some TOCs were returning cash to the Treasury: like South West Trains (now Railways).
It won’t be any more so HMG will have to cough up more cash potentially as-infinitum.
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side. Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction? Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket. Its all hyperbole nonsense.
I tend to agree that the ONS will probably revise GDP upwards.
But to accuse them of 'guesswork' ignores the massive - and well documented work - that goes into the creation of GDP numbers.
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side. Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction? Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket. Its all hyperbole nonsense.
Lol what a load of tripe.
"Feel" is one of the odder ways I've seen this explained away
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side. Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction? Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket. Its all hyperbole nonsense.
I tend to agree that the ONS will probably revise GDP upwards.
But to accuse them of 'guesswork' ignores the massive - and well documented work - that goes into the creation of GDP numbers.
It's just explaining away the Tory failure on the economy
It does. It’s much more of a problem for new grads and starters.
My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.
Something like that.
The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.
The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.
We were thinking of tech teams Mondays and Thursdays, Sales and Marketing Tuesdays, Finance Wednesdays, and Everyone Else Fridays...
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
That's the Bedfords of this world that will be stuffed, then. If you live in the outskirts of London you won't have a lot of space, and working from home will have limited appeal. If you work further out, it's different.
BUT.
Here's the thing.
We've moved to working from home with few problems. But that's because we have an established team. The tech guys - for example - all know the codebase, and know who is responsible for each line of code.
We're bringing on our first new person for four or five months. It's going to take him longer to get up to speed.
Physical distance to colleagues matters.
It does. It’s much more of a problem for new grads and starters.
My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.
Something like that.
The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.
The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.
Still not fun, I understand, driving out of London on the A12 on a Friday afternoon.
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
Maybe the furlough scheme proved just that little bit too popular? Many people have had an extended holiday (at home).
Is it not a timing issue? We suffered less in Q1 and therefore more in Q2.
Agreed.
Plus the forecast all along was that the UK would see a bigger drop this year but also a quicker recovery and we would get back to normal quicker than the rest of Europe. I still expect that will be the case. The UKs furlough scheme saw many businesses that didn't need to close under the regulations do so anyway, which is not necessarily a bad thing and now they are up and running again.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
HS2 is dead
A few quick points: 1. All off the franchises are now being managed by the DfT directly (via "DfT Operator of Last Resort Holdings ltd") or indirectly via a fixed fee management contract. Not a man jack of them is financially viable or ever will be again on their franchise contracts. You can't renationalise what the state always owned but I can't see how the franchise system survives this 2. HS2 was needed due to a lack of paths on the southern West Coast Main Line. Fewer passengers means they can run a slightly reduced frequency (2 trains an hour London to Manchester etc) which gives enough paths for freight - especially if they do a few other non-WCML route upgrades 3. HS2 may not be needed but "Northern Powerhouse Rail" is needed. A Pennine Base Tunnel was recognised as needed 150+ year ago and there simply isn't the capacity or a straight enough alignment to run at any speed between Manchester and Leeds/Sheffield 4. Forget your V-shaped recovery. February 2020 was the apogee. We orbit lower from now on.
One thing that may happen (not saying it will, but it's a possible outcome) is that more freight will transfer back to the railways.
A little maths reveals the following:
A lorry can carry one container say, 25 tons, at 60 mph max.
A freight train can carry 40 containers, say 1000 tons, at 75 mph max.
Which means if my maths is correct, which as we all know of course it always is, one freight train driver can do the work of approximately 50 lorry drivers.
Now, if you want to cut down on the risk of spreading disease everywhere, that seems to me a smart way of doing it.
But of course, for that you need capacity. And for that, you need new railways.
I think what might happen with HS2 is they cut the top speed to make it a bit cheaper. You could reduce it down to around 160mph which would still be far faster than any conventional train, and would probably slice 20% off the costs.
But it would be very surprising if it's not built to Manchester and Leeds.
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side. Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction? Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket. Its all hyperbole nonsense.
It depends where you are in the country. I expect Winchester is prospering, it usually is.
Parts of Leicester look grim, the extended lockdown is going to finish off a lot of businesses.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Even now, people are still writing to the Chief Constable, the Police Commissioner and even HM Inspectorate of Constabulary (who normally look at police shootings and deaths in custody) to try and get the investigation re-opened at a cost of tens, possibly even hundreds of thousands of pounds.
If it looks like a witch hunt, and smells like a witch hunt...
What if the witch being hunted is a witch, one of those poisonous, malevolent ones that fucks up people's lives?
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side. Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction? Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket. Its all hyperbole nonsense.
It depends where you are in the country. I expect Winchester is prospering, it usually is.
Parts of Leicester look grim, the extended lockdown is going to finish off a lot of businesses.
I hope we start to recover - and it looks like we are - but we're starting from a very low point and a lot of businesses are going to lay off a lot of people over the coming months.
Yes, they’re in a holding pattern at the moment. But don’t forget that the Government was trying to gradually reduce subsidy and make them all more sustainable. And some TOCs were returning cash to the Treasury: like South West Trains (now Railways).
It won’t be any more so HMG will have to cough up more cash potentially as-infinitum.
All adds up.
South West Trains was profitable and returning money to the treasury. South West Railway was in deep trouble and heading towards being handed back to the DfT. Two completely different franchises. How fantastic that DfT shot the golden goose by getting greedy.
Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
Maybe the furlough scheme proved just that little bit too popular? Many people have had an extended holiday (at home).
May be something to do with the structure of the economy? But also I think voluntary total lockdown was more a thing in Britain, arguably because of lack of confidence in the constantly-changing message from Ministers. I know several people who say they have completely lost track of what the current rules are, so they're simply staying at home apart from the occasional masked visit to shops.
My council exec has been debating what events to allow on council land (which in our case is quite a lot of green land). On the one hand, anecdotally we hear real delight among people who've attended music events and the like which we've allowed. On the other hand, in cases where attendance got out of hand (Frensham lakeside beach), the police and council officers proved unable to enforce any kind of social distancing. On balance we've decided to allow events where a detailed plan for distancing and enforcement by the organisers is shown, but we all think it's difficult.
Yes, they’re in a holding pattern at the moment. But don’t forget that the Government was trying to gradually reduce subsidy and make them all more sustainable. And some TOCs were returning cash to the Treasury: like South West Trains (now Railways).
It won’t be any more so HMG will have to cough up more cash potentially as-infinitum.
All adds up.
South West Trains was profitable and returning money to the treasury. South West Railway was in deep trouble and heading towards being handed back to the DfT. Two completely different franchises. How fantastic that DfT shot the golden goose by getting greedy.
SWR lied about the trains they could run. SWT knew it wasn't possible and got out, rather intelligently
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
Considering the scheme is only open Monday to Wednesday and the price (and discount) must be printed on the bill then if the prices were claimed to be double Monday-Wednesday then I think that would be somewhat open to investigation.
If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
One restaurant I went to only had two white wines on the menu Mon-Wed, the cheapest about £35 a bottle, normally there are lots of wines starting about £20. So they probably havent put the prices up but only served the premium mark up ones. Bad form and will put me off going back but not fraud.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It was the only option to head off the disaster, given that the results were already in the envelopes. It's a day of sarcastic headlines but then the negatives pretty much stop. No endless stories of injustice and blighted futures for little Wayne etc.
Comments
How does this person still have a job? How can your job be to comment on politics and not see what was coming?
2016 saw an awful lot of fucking normalcy bias and no mistake.
And by normalcy bias I mean the completely pretend made up normalcy that the belt-way journalists live in with honourable and respected opposition and the solemn profundity of the presidential office blah, blah,blah with the corrupt kleptocracy of the Bush administration consigned to the memory hole.
The GOP had Ted Cruz as the challenger to Trump. JFC. How could people not see what was happening?
As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?
There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.
Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
"Given my role as a Senior Advisor to the government I clearly should have paid more attention to the roles. At the time, I was thinking solely of my family and what was best for them, which I'm sure you understand. I apologise for my breach of lockdown guidance and for my subsequent trip to Barnard Castle."
This recession will be more v-shaped than ever before. Comparisons to other recessions is insane because never before has there been a recession where healthy companies ceased trading because they were ordered to do so, then resumed trading as if little had ever been wrong 2-3 months later - with the staff getting their wages paid by the state in the interim.
What matters is the real drop which seems like it might be about 6% as it stands, not 20%
Its how the economy performs when it is reopened that matters. And so far it looks to be performing very well.
(Which has been, of course, LSE's policy for decades.)
This is not a perfect system being replaced by chaos as is sometimes depicted in the press. In fact I expect fewer outrageous results where an entire class gets marked down several grades because an examiner fouled up.
Still a £300bn penalty charge to pay though, and probably an extra £25-40bn annual deficit to deal with too.
But could have been worse.
PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.
The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
And - frankly - it sucks.
I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.
That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (where not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
Obviously. Hence the sudden need for emergency surgery FFS. Chaps - go see the doc if bits of you start falling out. Especially when your local hospital is Covid central...
Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.
However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.
He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.
I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.
But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.
The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
Foreign tourists dont generally come over to the UK and camp or even go to the seaside wheras staycation Brits dont generally come to look at history and museums and culture (especially having to wear a mask to do it) - So they are not replacing like for like at all . I think a large part of the mess of covid -19 lockdown decisions are only starting to emerge (the first one being the A level and GCSE results) - the economy will follow
I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
Crossrail2 is definitely dead.
This is why I await the budget with interest.
BUT.
Here's the thing.
We've moved to working from home with few problems. But that's because we have an established team. The tech guys - for example - all know the codebase, and know who is responsible for each line of code.
We're bringing on our first new person for four or five months. It's going to take him longer to get up to speed.
Physical distance to colleagues matters.
Not because it is the top news story. Its not even a top political news story. In the real world the top news stories are that the UK is officially in recession and A-Level grades and in politics Biden picking Harris as his running mate.. Also in the BBC's "most read" news stories is a dinosaur discovered on the Isle of Wight, a story about Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson, Stephen Lawrence and multiple Coronavirus stories - none of them about Cummings.
1. All off the franchises are now being managed by the DfT directly (via "DfT Operator of Last Resort Holdings ltd") or indirectly via a fixed fee management contract. Not a man jack of them is financially viable or ever will be again on their franchise contracts. You can't renationalise what the state always owned but I can't see how the franchise system survives this
2. HS2 was needed due to a lack of paths on the southern West Coast Main Line. Fewer passengers means they can run a slightly reduced frequency (2 trains an hour London to Manchester etc) which gives enough paths for freight - especially if they do a few other non-WCML route upgrades
3. HS2 may not be needed but "Northern Powerhouse Rail" is needed. A Pennine Base Tunnel was recognised as needed 150+ year ago and there simply isn't the capacity or a straight enough alignment to run at any speed between Manchester and Leeds/Sheffield
4. Forget your V-shaped recovery. February 2020 was the apogee. We orbit lower from now on.
I guess the two potential challenges are whether it was the most cost effective way of delivering support to the restaurant sector, and to what extent encouraging so many people into restaurants at the current moment pushes up the infection rate.
My low opinion of many teachers has dropped even lower.
But as long as people have to wear masks on trains, they are going to struggle to attract business, in my opinion. I expect things will stay as they are until next summer when we might have a better idea of where things are heading in terms of a vaccine. As you said in another post, the days of the gold card may be over.
And ministers, a "staycation" is where you stay at home. A holiday in the UK is a holiday. You patronising out of touch fools.
My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.
Something like that.
The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.
The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-second-trip-made-up-a4455501.html
Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction?
Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket.
Its all hyperbole nonsense.
A personal opinion instead of a pasted tweet.
Any particular reasons for this view ?
Scott_xP FIRST WITH THE FACTS
In remarks echoed, though perhaps not as colorfully, by politicians, officials, and diplomats, one figure close to Johnson told me of his experience at the heart of the government machine these past few months: “It’s a fucking disgrace.”
As Ian Boyd, a professor and member of SAGE, put it: “The reality is, there has been a major systemic failure.”
When the crisis came, too much of Britain’s core infrastructure simply failed, according to senior officials and experts involved in the pandemic response. Expert advisory committees proved too slow and ponderous, with not enough dissenting voices; crisis-response cells could not cope and had to be bypassed; the Cabinet Office buckled under the strain; the NHS had no adequate way of sharing data; authorities could not meet the sudden need for mass testing; the Foreign Office could not get people home fast enough; the Department of Health could not design a contact-tracing app that worked; the government overall could not sufficiently procure key pandemic equipment; and Downing Street generally gave the impression of lurching from one crisis to another.
It won’t be any more so HMG will have to cough up more cash potentially as-infinitum.
All adds up.
Tories economically competent, hahahaha
But to accuse them of 'guesswork' ignores the massive - and well documented work - that goes into the creation of GDP numbers.
"Feel" is one of the odder ways I've seen this explained away
And yes, I know the original subject was trains!
Plus the forecast all along was that the UK would see a bigger drop this year but also a quicker recovery and we would get back to normal quicker than the rest of Europe. I still expect that will be the case. The UKs furlough scheme saw many businesses that didn't need to close under the regulations do so anyway, which is not necessarily a bad thing and now they are up and running again.
TBMs haven't even left the factory
A little maths reveals the following:
A lorry can carry one container say, 25 tons, at 60 mph max.
A freight train can carry 40 containers, say 1000 tons, at 75 mph max.
Which means if my maths is correct, which as we all know of course it always is, one freight train driver can do the work of approximately 50 lorry drivers.
Now, if you want to cut down on the risk of spreading disease everywhere, that seems to me a smart way of doing it.
But of course, for that you need capacity. And for that, you need new railways.
I think what might happen with HS2 is they cut the top speed to make it a bit cheaper. You could reduce it down to around 160mph which would still be far faster than any conventional train, and would probably slice 20% off the costs.
But it would be very surprising if it's not built to Manchester and Leeds.
A world beating recession.
Parts of Leicester look grim, the extended lockdown is going to finish off a lot of businesses.
My council exec has been debating what events to allow on council land (which in our case is quite a lot of green land). On the one hand, anecdotally we hear real delight among people who've attended music events and the like which we've allowed. On the other hand, in cases where attendance got out of hand (Frensham lakeside beach), the police and council officers proved unable to enforce any kind of social distancing. On balance we've decided to allow events where a detailed plan for distancing and enforcement by the organisers is shown, but we all think it's difficult.