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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    DavidL said:

    Sure, which is why Hilary spent a lot of time there rather than in those rather dull rust bucket states that....cost her the election. Will the money be greater because there is a Californian senator on the ticket? I doubt it, Trump motivates his opponents every bit as much as he does his base.
    Worth remembering, of course, that Pete Buttigieg was the most effective California fund raiser...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited August 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    And this is why Trump most lose.

    Four years ago I posted this article to my Facebook: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/calm-down-well-be-fine-no-matter-who-wins/2016/11/04/e5ca3c32-a2d3-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html

    And I got a bunch of shit from my left wing friends. But you know what, they were right and I was wrong.

    The only thing that matters in a democracy is that you accept the will of the electorate. If you don't accept it, then I don't care how aligned you are with me on tax policy or education or anything else. Ultimately, every thing else is secondary. Because everything else can be fixed at the ballot box.

    Presuming, of course, that you believe in the ballot box.
    If Trump wins, he’ll be held more or less in check by the House and Senate because that’s the way our system of government is set up. Not even Republicans are eager to follow Trump’s lead.

    How does this person still have a job? How can your job be to comment on politics and not see what was coming?

    2016 saw an awful lot of fucking normalcy bias and no mistake.

    And by normalcy bias I mean the completely pretend made up normalcy that the belt-way journalists live in with honourable and respected opposition and the solemn profundity of the presidential office blah, blah,blah with the corrupt kleptocracy of the Bush administration consigned to the memory hole.

    The GOP had Ted Cruz as the challenger to Trump. JFC. How could people not see what was happening?
  • I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?

    Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
    How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!

    As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?

    There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.

    Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,806
    edited August 2020
    The A-level and Highers filters for university entrance are kaput. And the pandemic is forcing universities to provide or expand on-line courses. This means that universities will have to take increased numbers into their first year and thin out the cohort themselves in the course of the year. Some of that happens in a normal year, it will just be a bigger thing this year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    Charles said:

    She’s our local Senator. As effective as a chocolate teapot.

    My wife has just announced that she’d rather vote for Hillary than Kamala (and given her history with Hillary that’s quite a thing).

    She’s probably going to write in Jeb Bush as a strange sort of protest...
    Well my wife was delighted with the choice, so it’s an anecdata wash.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468

    How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!

    As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?

    There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.

    Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
    It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    Cummings didn't break quarantine, the Police investigated that and cleared him of that. All that was left was the Barnard Castle trip.
    The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:

    "Given my role as a Senior Advisor to the government I clearly should have paid more attention to the roles. At the time, I was thinking solely of my family and what was best for them, which I'm sure you understand. I apologise for my breach of lockdown guidance and for my subsequent trip to Barnard Castle."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192

    Still, according to some on here, its not so bad.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1293438279816282113
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?

    Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
    But the scheme isnt meant to be a healthy eating scheme its meant ( I presume) to be a scheme to encourage people to get out and about . I am not a big fan of gimmicks like this but its certainly had a lot of people get into restaurants. As many people cannto afford to eat in posher restaurants it had to include the likes of Macdonalds etc . You can actually eat a lot less healthily in posher restaurants anyway.
  • Its not.

    This recession will be more v-shaped than ever before. Comparisons to other recessions is insane because never before has there been a recession where healthy companies ceased trading because they were ordered to do so, then resumed trading as if little had ever been wrong 2-3 months later - with the staff getting their wages paid by the state in the interim.

    What matters is the real drop which seems like it might be about 6% as it stands, not 20%
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468

    Good
    I was hoping for an explanation.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    The Government shut the economy down in April and May, everything was shut, there was nothing to spend money on. Seriously what did you expect to happen?

    Its how the economy performs when it is reopened that matters. And so far it looks to be performing very well.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192
    rcs1000 said:

    The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:

    His policy is never to apologise, for anything.
  • The GDP figures explain why the government wants to argue with ice cream over the fate of a few thousand refugees. Anything rather than have the focus on those numbers. It will work short-term, but the reality of what we face is not going away.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    geoffw said:

    The A-level and Highers filters for university entrance are kaput. And the pandemic is forcing universities to provide or expand on-line courses. This means that universities will have to take increased numbers into their first year and thin out the cohort themselves in the course of the year. Some of that happens in a normal year, it will just be a bigger thing this year.

    Exactly.

    (Which has been, of course, LSE's policy for decades.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468

    The Government shut the economy down in April and May, everything was shut, there was nothing to spend money on. Seriously what did you expect to happen?

    Its how the economy performs when it is reopened that matters. And so far it looks to be performing very well.
    Thanks for confirming my point.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    How are they not discounting to customers? If they're taking full price from the customers and then 50% extra from HMRC then that sounds to me like it would be criminal tax fraud and HMRC would not take a pleasant view upon that!

    As for fast food restaurants of course they should be in the scheme. Why on earth would restaurants not be part of a scheme to help restaurants?

    There are plenty of "fast food" restaurants that could have gone bust had this scheme not been created, there are many restaurant chains that have struggled or gone into administration during this virus: Frankie & Benny's, Ask Italia, Zizzis, Byron Burger, Pizza Express, Pret A Manger, Cafe Rouge, Bella Italia, Upper Crust, Ritazza, Wagama, Carluccios to name just a few have all either announced large job losses or entered administration.

    Your typical McDonalds in a normal year probably pays wages to dozens of people and generates over a million pounds of taxes per annum to HMRC between VAT, Business Rates, Corporation Tax, Employment Taxes and more. Why would these restaurants uniquely be excluded from a scheme to support restaurants?
    Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
  • In all this discussion of A-level results don’t forget that even in a normal year there is an element of luck about what grades people get. Other than the very best who I know will get A*s (and it is only in Maths and usually the sciences where even that is sure) the grades are approximate: if I think someone is a B student then I am not surprised by ether an A or a C.
    This is not a perfect system being replaced by chaos as is sometimes depicted in the press. In fact I expect fewer outrageous results where an entire class gets marked down several grades because an examiner fouled up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    MaxPB said:

    -20.4% GDP in Q2, but +8.7% in June and a predicted +8% in July going by the indices.

    Recovery looking pretty V shaped at the moment.

    Provided it doesn't bubble-up again and we get a half-decent vaccine in the next 6-9 months, we should be ok.

    Still a £300bn penalty charge to pay though, and probably an extra £25-40bn annual deficit to deal with too.

    But could have been worse.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:

    "Given my role as a Senior Advisor to the government I clearly should have paid more attention to the roles. At the time, I was thinking solely of my family and what was best for them, which I'm sure you understand. I apologise for my breach of lockdown guidance and for my subsequent trip to Barnard Castle."
    " and for any other trips there are eye witnesses for"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    Charles said:

    She’s our local Senator. As effective as a chocolate teapot.

    My wife has just announced that she’d rather vote for Hillary than Kamala (and given her history with Hillary that’s quite a thing).

    She’s probably going to write in Jeb Bush as a strange sort of protest...
    She should draw his gun with "Jeb" inscribed on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158

    Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.

    Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
    Teacher grades are not being used in the majority of cases.
  • Parts of the domestic economy are performing well. Other parts less so - with foreign tourism dead how much of the hole are Brits filling by going camping in the UK? I suspect nowhere near all of it. And we know that big town and city centres are significantly quieter than they have been with commercial property price slides clearly there.

    PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    The GDP figures explain why the government wants to argue with ice cream over the fate of a few thousand refugees. Anything rather than have the focus on those numbers. It will work short-term, but the reality of what we face is not going away.

    GDP figures mean fuck all to the ordinary person. The government ending furlough on the other hand...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    Provided it doesn't bubble-up again and we get a half-decent vaccine in the next 6-9 months, we should be ok.

    Still a £300bn penalty charge to pay though, and probably an extra £25-40bn annual deficit to deal with too.

    But could have been worse.

    Provided it doesn't bubble-up again and we get a half-decent vaccine in the next 6-9 months, we should be ok.

    Still a £300bn penalty charge to pay though, and probably an extra £25-40bn annual deficit to deal with too.

    But could have been worse.
    300bn is chump change in the long run.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    I was hoping for an explanation.
    Ok then it was just a light hearted play on Neil Kinnocks most famous speeches
  • It is a stupid idea, open to abuse. I am nonetheless using it tonight.
    How is it stupid?

    The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
    There's a maximum "refund" per customer of ten quid isn't there? So, a 100% increase would benefit KFC and McDonalds, but that's about it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    On GDP this is what I have pencilled in - July +7%, August +4%, September +2% and October +1%. The last two are based on putting my finger in the air and pent up demand running dry and the weather becoming unhelpful.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    Scott_xP said:

    His policy is never to apologise, for anything.
    I know. That's the policy in the US as well.

    And - frankly - it sucks.

    I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    rcs1000 said:

    300bn is chump change in the long run.
    Especially given that the government will pay itself the interest for it.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826
    rcs1000 said:

    There's a maximum "refund" per customer of ten quid isn't there? So, a 100% increase would benefit KFC and McDonalds, but that's about it.
    Or put it up to whatever the formula says is the percentage for a £10 rebate. Basicially the law allows restaurants to charge what they like so doubt anything can be classed as fraud
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192
    rcs1000 said:

    I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.

    He doesn't think it was wrong. And neither does BoZo
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    edited August 2020
    MaxPB said:

    I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
    This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.

    At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.

    That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (where not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    rcs1000 said:

    I know. That's the policy in the US as well.

    And - frankly - it sucks.

    I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
    And upthread, you set a good example yourself.
  • Its an interesting question but given restaurants can charge what they like then they could just say they have put up their prices 100% and then applied the discount. A bit like the 5% VAt rate in that restaurants can choose to pass it on or keep it because fundamentally they are allowed to charge what they like
    Considering the scheme is only open Monday to Wednesday and the price (and discount) must be printed on the bill then if the prices were claimed to be double Monday-Wednesday then I think that would be somewhat open to investigation.

    If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124
    edited August 2020
    Older gentlemen - if bits of you are hanging out go get it sorted. Heard via my brother that the old man has been whipped into hospital for an unscheduled hernia operation after he started to resemble the monster at the end of Alien Resurrection. "What Hernia" was my response to the notion that he's "had it for years but has been managing it".

    Obviously. Hence the sudden need for emergency surgery FFS. Chaps - go see the doc if bits of you start falling out. Especially when your local hospital is Covid central...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468

    How is it stupid?

    The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
    I would have gone out this week anyway, granted probably not on a Wednesday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468
    edited August 2020
    All my posts from my mobile are coming out in duplicate. I do apologise.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192

    This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.

    At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.

    That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.

    HS2 is dead
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.

    At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.

    That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (were not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
    Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.

    Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Scott_xP said:

    HS2 is dead
    LHR3 as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    Scott_xP said:
    World classless at everything, but think of being able to wave those blue passports , those johnny foreigners cannot do that can they?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    Parts of the domestic economy are performing well. Other parts less so - with foreign tourism dead how much of the hole are Brits filling by going camping in the UK? I suspect nowhere near all of it. And we know that big town and city centres are significantly quieter than they have been with commercial property price slides clearly there.

    PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.


    Foreign tourists dont generally come over to the UK and camp or even go to the seaside wheras staycation Brits dont generally come to look at history and museums and culture (especially having to wear a mask to do it) - So they are not replacing like for like at all . I think a large part of the mess of covid -19 lockdown decisions are only starting to emerge (the first one being the A level and GCSE results) - the economy will follow
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, that rather depends if there's a vaccine or not.

    Assuming there is, why do you think people won't want to travel? As a man with kids in the 8-13 year old range, I really see the value of not being at home.
    I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.

    I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    Scott_xP said:

    HS2 is dead
    HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.

    Crossrail2 is definitely dead.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    rcs1000 said:

    300bn is chump change in the long run.
    Yes, it's more important that our debt ratio % GDP is stable and we have a path to balance the books again.

    This is why I await the budget with interest.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.

    Crossrail2 is definitely dead.

    Considering the scheme is only open Monday to Wednesday and the price (and discount) must be printed on the bill then if the prices were claimed to be double Monday-Wednesday then I think that would be somewhat open to investigation.

    If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
    i agree it might not be the most commercially best decision but I was just saying I doubt its technically fraud
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468
    Scott_xP said:

    He doesn't think it was wrong. And neither does BoZo
    Why should they, when through a lifetime of sometimes serious indiscretions there are no consequences. Johnson conspiring with Darius Guppy to assault a journalist is just put down to "Boris, being Boris".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.

    I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.

    I'm thinking of daily commuters into the big cities.

    I doubt many will be doing this every single day in future, as before, and they won't be buying annual gold cards just to go in twice a week either.
    That's the Bedfords of this world that will be stuffed, then. If you live in the outskirts of London you won't have a lot of space, and working from home will have limited appeal. If you work further out, it's different.

    BUT.

    Here's the thing.

    We've moved to working from home with few problems. But that's because we have an established team. The tech guys - for example - all know the codebase, and know who is responsible for each line of code.

    We're bringing on our first new person for four or five months. It's going to take him longer to get up to speed.

    Physical distance to colleagues matters.
  • ydoethur said:

    Durham Constabulary were effectively ordered to come to that conclusion by the Attorney General, who went for the Barbossa defence ('they're more what you might call guidelines'). The Attorney General, let us not forget, was effectively appointed by Dominic Cummings.

    This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.

    However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.

    He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.

    I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.

    But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.

    The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
    The only reason we're talking about it is that OGH who is a Remainer who already disliked Cummings before the story broke brought it up.

    Not because it is the top news story. Its not even a top political news story. In the real world the top news stories are that the UK is officially in recession and A-Level grades and in politics Biden picking Harris as his running mate.. Also in the BBC's "most read" news stories is a dinosaur discovered on the Isle of Wight, a story about Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson, Stephen Lawrence and multiple Coronavirus stories - none of them about Cummings.
  • Scott_xP said:

    HS2 is dead
    A few quick points:
    1. All off the franchises are now being managed by the DfT directly (via "DfT Operator of Last Resort Holdings ltd") or indirectly via a fixed fee management contract. Not a man jack of them is financially viable or ever will be again on their franchise contracts. You can't renationalise what the state always owned but I can't see how the franchise system survives this
    2. HS2 was needed due to a lack of paths on the southern West Coast Main Line. Fewer passengers means they can run a slightly reduced frequency (2 trains an hour London to Manchester etc) which gives enough paths for freight - especially if they do a few other non-WCML route upgrades
    3. HS2 may not be needed but "Northern Powerhouse Rail" is needed. A Pennine Base Tunnel was recognised as needed 150+ year ago and there simply isn't the capacity or a straight enough alignment to run at any speed between Manchester and Leeds/Sheffield
    4. Forget your V-shaped recovery. February 2020 was the apogee. We orbit lower from now on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468
    ydoethur said:

    Durham Constabulary were effectively ordered to come to that conclusion by the Attorney General, who went for the Barbossa defence ('they're more what you might call guidelines'). The Attorney General, let us not forget, was effectively appointed by Dominic Cummings.

    This was based on Cummings' claim that he needed to go to Durham to ensure childcare was on hand.

    However, as we all know he was lying about that (evidence - he admitted he hadn't made any effort to find out whether childcare would be available in London if needed) that falls to start.

    He then further admitted leaving the house while showing symptoms to pick up his wife from hospital, which was a further breach of quarantine.

    I know the likes of you and Bluest Blue can't see that. You don't care about facts, or the law, or even about basic fairness. You care about your tribe, and for good or ill you have made Cummings a key part of it.

    But even if you and Suella Braverman were right on that, you have been assuring me for three months that this was a non-story that nobody would pay the slightest attention to. Here we are, still talking about it three months on.

    The politics of this are just abysmal. And it was to save a man who is a liar, a bully, and an egomaniac who while a brilliant campaigner and cunning sloganiser has been an utter, abject, disastrous failure in every executive role he's ever held. The smart move from every point of view would have been to say, his job's done, now let's get rid of him quickly and get someone intelligent and competent in.
    A very well constructed argument. If I was a juror the judge would be wearing a black cap by now!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288

    How is it stupid?

    The fact that you are using it tonight is the entire frigging point. It seems to me it is working as intended. We are going out tonight to use it as well, it will be our first meal in a restaurant since February. If you'd suggested to me back in February that we wouldn't go out again until August I'd have thought you were insane but if it wasn't for the scheme I doubt we would be going out tonight, it has prompted us to go out.
    It is certainly having the desired effect (which puts it in the upper quartile of government policy). People were wandering around here earlier last week moaning that all the restaurants were full.

    I guess the two potential challenges are whether it was the most cost effective way of delivering support to the restaurant sector, and to what extent encouraging so many people into restaurants at the current moment pushes up the infection rate.
  • MaxPB said:

    Neither is teacher assessment.

    Cancelling the exams was such a terrible idea. The government massively jumped the gun on it and now the kids are paying the price. If they had held firm and said they were aiming for a summer sitting and just allowed for grades being worse due to the teaching being a bit dodgy in the spring/summer term.
    We ran all our exams, the timing was probably a bit generous to the students but that all cancelled itself out IMO.

    My low opinion of many teachers has dropped even lower.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    This. Big question for me is what happens to the railways.

    At present, I'm thinking passenger numbers only recover to 50-60% of pre-virus numbers over the next 2 years.

    That will make several TOCs unviable and unprofitable, so I expect quasi-nationalisation to continue for a while yet, and some new transport schemes (where not politically essential) put on a go-slow.
    Most TOCs run at a loss anyway, so in theory the franchising system could come back just with a greater level of overall public subsidy. I guess it was easier to stick them all on management contracts for the time being. Those contracts are appropriate for London Overground type operations. They are less effective for operations that compete with other modes. The longer distance services can benefit from the franchisee seeking to increase usage by advertising, altering service patterns etc.

    But as long as people have to wear masks on trains, they are going to struggle to attract business, in my opinion. I expect things will stay as they are until next summer when we might have a better idea of where things are heading in terms of a vaccine. As you said in another post, the days of the gold card may be over.

  • Foreign tourists dont generally come over to the UK and camp or even go to the seaside wheras staycation Brits dont generally come to look at history and museums and culture (especially having to wear a mask to do it) - So they are not replacing like for like at all . I think a large part of the mess of covid -19 lockdown decisions are only starting to emerge (the first one being the A level and GCSE results) - the economy will follow
    Yes I know that was point point. Foreign tourists come here and shower London / Edinburgh / Stratford with dollar. British holiday in the UK tourists are rushing out to buy tents. The loss of revenue in the economy will surely be large, massive in some areas.

    And ministers, a "staycation" is where you stay at home. A holiday in the UK is a holiday. You patronising out of touch fools.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    Scott_xP said:

    HS2 is dead
    They've just started tunnelling.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468

    The only reason we're talking about it is that OGH who is a Remainer who already disliked Cummings before the story broke brought it up.

    Not because it is the top news story. Its not even a top political news story. In the real world the top news stories are that the UK is officially in recession and A-Level grades and in politics Biden picking Harris as his running mate.. Also in the BBC's "most read" news stories is a dinosaur discovered on the Isle of Wight, a story about Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson, Stephen Lawrence and multiple Coronavirus stories - none of them about Cummings.
    A dinosaur found on the Isle of Wight is hardly news. There are manifold dinosaurs of the Conservative variety on the Isle of Wight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited August 2020

    Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?

    Maybe the furlough scheme proved just that little bit too popular? Many people have had an extended holiday (at home).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    rcs1000 said:

    That's the Bedfords of this world that will be stuffed, then. If you live in the outskirts of London you won't have a lot of space, and working from home will have limited appeal. If you work further out, it's different.

    BUT.

    Here's the thing.

    We've moved to working from home with few problems. But that's because we have an established team. The tech guys - for example - all know the codebase, and know who is responsible for each line of code.

    We're bringing on our first new person for four or five months. It's going to take him longer to get up to speed.

    Physical distance to colleagues matters.
    It does. It’s much more of a problem for new grads and starters.

    My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.

    Something like that.

    The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.

    The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,192
    ydoethur said:

    They've just started tunnelling.

    Plenty of railway tunnels with no trains in them...
  • HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.

    Crossrail2 is definitely dead.
    What have they built for HS2? Site clearance in London and Birmingham isn't constructing a railway. Not a single mile of embankment or tunnel yet built or even started. Cancel now and they will just build something else at Euston, OOC and Curzon Street.
  • Alistair said:

    " and for any other trips there are eye witnesses for"
    "even if they made it up"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-cummings-second-trip-made-up-a4455501.html

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Curious why the UK GDP decline is significantly larger. Our lockdown wasn't as stringent as many, and it was of comparable length to others, right?

    The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side.
    Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction?
    Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket.
    Its all hyperbole nonsense.
  • Scott_xP said:

    HS2 is dead
    I'm intrigued.

    A personal opinion instead of a pasted tweet.

    Any particular reasons for this view ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    ydoethur said:

    They've just started tunnelling.
    And by the time they stop and the line is ready to open this is going to be a distant memory. I think the commuter lines may well see a semi permanent drop in utilisation, longer lines less so.
  • HS2 certainly isn't dead - it's well under construction. It's possible phase 2 will be kicked into the long-grass though.

    Crossrail2 is definitely dead.
    Yeah, they spent this weekend putting in a new bridge over the M42.

    Scott_xP FIRST WITH THE FACTS
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited August 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    The raw figures are grim. Britain has the worst overall COVID-19 death toll in Europe, with more than 46,000 dead according to official figures, while also suffering the Continent’s second-worst “excess death” tally per capita, more than double that in France and eight times higher than Germany’s. It did not protect its oldest and most vulnerable, who died in nursing homes in appalling numbers. It allowed the disease to spread throughout the country rather than isolating it in one area. It failed to close its borders in good time, abandoned contact tracing too early, set targets that were missed, designed government programs that didn’t work, and somehow contrived to let the three most senior figures overseeing its pandemic response, including the prime minister, catch the very virus they were fighting. Now it faces the worst recession of any developed country, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

    In remarks echoed, though perhaps not as colorfully, by politicians, officials, and diplomats, one figure close to Johnson told me of his experience at the heart of the government machine these past few months: “It’s a fucking disgrace.”

    As Ian Boyd, a professor and member of SAGE, put it: “The reality is, there has been a major systemic failure.”

    When the crisis came, too much of Britain’s core infrastructure simply failed, according to senior officials and experts involved in the pandemic response. Expert advisory committees proved too slow and ponderous, with not enough dissenting voices; crisis-response cells could not cope and had to be bypassed; the Cabinet Office buckled under the strain; the NHS had no adequate way of sharing data; authorities could not meet the sudden need for mass testing; the Foreign Office could not get people home fast enough; the Department of Health could not design a contact-tracing app that worked; the government overall could not sufficiently procure key pandemic equipment; and Downing Street generally gave the impression of lurching from one crisis to another.
  • I would have gone out this week anyway, granted probably not on a Wednesday.
    You may have but that doesn't change the fact that millions of others wouldn't. have. We are seeing reports of restaurants packed Monday to Wednesday - there is not the slightest chance at all that would have happened had it not been for this scheme. The fact you are on a Wednesday is again working as intended.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    IanB2 said:

    Maybe the furlough scheme proved just that little bit too popular? Many people have had an extended holiday (at home).
    Is it not a timing issue? We suffered less in Q1 and therefore more in Q2.
  • All my posts from my mobile are coming out in duplicate. I do apologise.

    None of us noticed any difference.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,248
    tlg86 said:

    Most TOCs run at a loss anyway, so in theory the franchising system could come back just with a greater level of overall public subsidy. I guess it was easier to stick them all on management contracts for the time being. Those contracts are appropriate for London Overground type operations. They are less effective for operations that compete with other modes. The longer distance services can benefit from the franchisee seeking to increase usage by advertising, altering service patterns etc.

    But as long as people have to wear masks on trains, they are going to struggle to attract business, in my opinion. I expect things will stay as they are until next summer when we might have a better idea of where things are heading in terms of a vaccine. As you said in another post, the days of the gold card may be over.
    Yes, they’re in a holding pattern at the moment. But don’t forget that the Government was trying to gradually reduce subsidy and make them all more sustainable. And some TOCs were returning cash to the Treasury: like South West Trains (now Railways).

    It won’t be any more so HMG will have to cough up more cash potentially as-infinitum.

    All adds up.
  • So would the PB Tories like to tell us why our economic performance is so much worse than much of Europe?

    Tories economically competent, hahahaha
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side.
    Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction?
    Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket.
    Its all hyperbole nonsense.
    I tend to agree that the ONS will probably revise GDP upwards.

    But to accuse them of 'guesswork' ignores the massive - and well documented work - that goes into the creation of GDP numbers.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited August 2020

    The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side.
    Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction?
    Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket.
    Its all hyperbole nonsense.
    Lol what a load of tripe.

    "Feel" is one of the odder ways I've seen this explained away
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    DavidL said:

    Is it not a timing issue? We suffered less in Q1 and therefore more in Q2.
    +1
  • rcs1000 said:

    I tend to agree that the ONS will probably revise GDP upwards.

    But to accuse them of 'guesswork' ignores the massive - and well documented work - that goes into the creation of GDP numbers.
    It's just explaining away the Tory failure on the economy
  • So would the PB Tories like to tell us why our economic performance is so much worse than much of Europe?

    Tories economically competent, hahahaha

    Its not. Any other questions?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893

    It does. It’s much more of a problem for new grads and starters.

    My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.

    Something like that.

    The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.

    The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.

    We were thinking of tech teams Mondays and Thursdays, Sales and Marketing Tuesdays, Finance Wednesdays, and Everyone Else Fridays...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885

    It does. It’s much more of a problem for new grads and starters.

    My thinking is that Wednesdays and Thursdays become the new usual days, with team socials on Thursdays nights. Tuesdays perhaps once a month for team catch-ups, briefings etc and introduction of new team members.

    Something like that.

    The Government will have to reform the ticketing options with the TOCs and compensate them accordingly or renegotiate/ retender new franchises.

    The old peak/off-peak thing and Monday to Friday pattern is toast.
    Still not fun, I understand, driving out of London on the A12 on a Friday afternoon.

    And yes, I know the original subject was trains!
  • DavidL said:

    Is it not a timing issue? We suffered less in Q1 and therefore more in Q2.
    Agreed.

    Plus the forecast all along was that the UK would see a bigger drop this year but also a quicker recovery and we would get back to normal quicker than the rest of Europe. I still expect that will be the case. The UKs furlough scheme saw many businesses that didn't need to close under the regulations do so anyway, which is not necessarily a bad thing and now they are up and running again.
  • ydoethur said:

    They've just started tunnelling.
    They have not: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/hs2-tunnelling-machines-set-to-leave-factory-with-the-names-florence-and-cecilia-topping-public-vote

    TBMs haven't even left the factory
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158

    A few quick points:
    1. All off the franchises are now being managed by the DfT directly (via "DfT Operator of Last Resort Holdings ltd") or indirectly via a fixed fee management contract. Not a man jack of them is financially viable or ever will be again on their franchise contracts. You can't renationalise what the state always owned but I can't see how the franchise system survives this
    2. HS2 was needed due to a lack of paths on the southern West Coast Main Line. Fewer passengers means they can run a slightly reduced frequency (2 trains an hour London to Manchester etc) which gives enough paths for freight - especially if they do a few other non-WCML route upgrades
    3. HS2 may not be needed but "Northern Powerhouse Rail" is needed. A Pennine Base Tunnel was recognised as needed 150+ year ago and there simply isn't the capacity or a straight enough alignment to run at any speed between Manchester and Leeds/Sheffield
    4. Forget your V-shaped recovery. February 2020 was the apogee. We orbit lower from now on.
    One thing that may happen (not saying it will, but it's a possible outcome) is that more freight will transfer back to the railways.

    A little maths reveals the following:

    A lorry can carry one container say, 25 tons, at 60 mph max.

    A freight train can carry 40 containers, say 1000 tons, at 75 mph max.

    Which means if my maths is correct, which as we all know of course it always is, one freight train driver can do the work of approximately 50 lorry drivers.

    Now, if you want to cut down on the risk of spreading disease everywhere, that seems to me a smart way of doing it.

    But of course, for that you need capacity. And for that, you need new railways.

    I think what might happen with HS2 is they cut the top speed to make it a bit cheaper. You could reduce it down to around 160mph which would still be far faster than any conventional train, and would probably slice 20% off the costs.

    But it would be very surprising if it's not built to Manchester and Leeds.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,567

    The figures for GDP are just guesses. The ONS always go on the pessimistic side.
    Does the country feel like it has just had a 20% GDP reduction?
    Are houses selling? Do people have plenty of money in their pocket.
    Its all hyperbole nonsense.
    It depends where you are in the country. I expect Winchester is prospering, it usually is.

    Parts of Leicester look grim, the extended lockdown is going to finish off a lot of businesses.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    Sandpit said:

    Even now, people are still writing to the Chief Constable, the Police Commissioner and even HM Inspectorate of Constabulary (who normally look at police shootings and deaths in custody) to try and get the investigation re-opened at a cost of tens, possibly even hundreds of thousands of pounds.

    If it looks like a witch hunt, and smells like a witch hunt...
    What if the witch being hunted is a witch, one of those poisonous, malevolent ones that fucks up people's lives?
  • Foxy said:

    It depends where you are in the country. I expect Winchester is prospering, it usually is.

    Parts of Leicester look grim, the extended lockdown is going to finish off a lot of businesses.
    I hope we start to recover - and it looks like we are - but we're starting from a very low point and a lot of businesses are going to lay off a lot of people over the coming months.
  • Yes, they’re in a holding pattern at the moment. But don’t forget that the Government was trying to gradually reduce subsidy and make them all more sustainable. And some TOCs were returning cash to the Treasury: like South West Trains (now Railways).

    It won’t be any more so HMG will have to cough up more cash potentially as-infinitum.

    All adds up.

    South West Trains was profitable and returning money to the treasury. South West Railway was in deep trouble and heading towards being handed back to the DfT. Two completely different franchises. How fantastic that DfT shot the golden goose by getting greedy.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    IanB2 said:

    Maybe the furlough scheme proved just that little bit too popular? Many people have had an extended holiday (at home).
    May be something to do with the structure of the economy? But also I think voluntary total lockdown was more a thing in Britain, arguably because of lack of confidence in the constantly-changing message from Ministers. I know several people who say they have completely lost track of what the current rules are, so they're simply staying at home apart from the occasional masked visit to shops.

    My council exec has been debating what events to allow on council land (which in our case is quite a lot of green land). On the one hand, anecdotally we hear real delight among people who've attended music events and the like which we've allowed. On the other hand, in cases where attendance got out of hand (Frensham lakeside beach), the police and council officers proved unable to enforce any kind of social distancing. On balance we've decided to allow events where a detailed plan for distancing and enforcement by the organisers is shown, but we all think it's difficult.
  • South West Trains was profitable and returning money to the treasury. South West Railway was in deep trouble and heading towards being handed back to the DfT. Two completely different franchises. How fantastic that DfT shot the golden goose by getting greedy.
    SWR lied about the trains they could run. SWT knew it wasn't possible and got out, rather intelligently
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,364

    Considering the scheme is only open Monday to Wednesday and the price (and discount) must be printed on the bill then if the prices were claimed to be double Monday-Wednesday then I think that would be somewhat open to investigation.

    If you're going to defraud HMRC then printing that you have done so on your bills you give to customers you're pissing off does not seem like an intelligent move to me. I can't imagine many would do that!
    One restaurant I went to only had two white wines on the menu Mon-Wed, the cheapest about £35 a bottle, normally there are lots of wines starting about £20. So they probably havent put the prices up but only served the premium mark up ones. Bad form and will put me off going back but not fraud.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,219

    It was the only option to head off the disaster, given that the results were already in the envelopes. It's a day of sarcastic headlines but then the negatives pretty much stop. No endless stories of injustice and blighted futures for little Wayne etc.
    18-year-olds aren't usually that little.
This discussion has been closed.