Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Reported as the 06:38 Aberdeen - Glasgow, passed Stonehaven at 06:53 this morning so odd that BTP say they weren't called until nearly 3 hours later. Suggestion online that the train hit a landslip, derailed and then fell off an embankment. Its an HST so despite the trains being old and comfy they aren't remotely as robust as anything modern.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Reported as the 06:38 Aberdeen - Glasgow, passed Stonehaven at 06:53 this morning so odd that BTP say they weren't called until nearly 3 hours later. Suggestion online that the train hit a landslip, derailed and then fell off an embankment. Its an HST so despite the trains being old and comfy they aren't remotely as robust as anything modern.
Not necessarily. They might only have been called well after the fire brigade, for example.
But yes, the old class 43s and presumably Mark 3 coaches are forty years old and certainly less strongly built than say a Pendolino or Voyager. Moreover, their very age means they're not as robust.
If they were doing any speed at all this will be bad. THe one thing that might keep casualties low is that there are unlikely to be many people on the train.
What is very useful is that the actual outputs of the 538 model are available for proper analysis - there's a link near the bottom of the page. In particular the model's probabilities for each ECV value are given.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Edit- there is also extensive flooding in the area after major storms last night, so the ES were already at full stretch.
My wild guess is that there was a landslip or a tree fell into the cutting and the train crashed straight into it, but that's a guess and I very much hope I am totally wrong.
That sounds plausible, that heavy rain caused a natural track blockage which derailed the train.
Edit: as the video posted above suggests, it looks like the fleet of emergency vehicles is a standard response to an incident involving a train - it's easier to get everyone there immediately and stand them down if not required, than the other way around.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
First of all, I have to apologise.to a number of PBers. I posted the link to Fox's article on the DNC list of speakers that had been announced and I know several on here closed their green positions on Harris over the back of it so I am truly sorry. I thought it might be a betting opportunity but it was the wrong one. If it is any consolation, I was heavily red on Harris (but what I could afford).
Second, re Harris, there seems to be a view that she was the safest candidate but I really think it might turn out to be the riskiest choice. She won't inspire the Bernie Bros, her record as California AG means she will come under attack from both left and right (and there are a lot of horror stories from her time as CA AG) and, while Bush criticised Reagan's "voodoo economics", she branded Biden a racist which is somewhat different. Plus this is happening at a time when the polls in some of the swing states (NC, AZ) are swinging slowly back to Trump, with even the Dem lead in Minnesota down to +3% according to one poll yesterday.
Not to worry. I completely ignored you as I always do. You're a Trump ramper who posts tosh in a superficially credible style.
I love you too
- Came out a bit harsh maybe. And in fact I lied. I do read your posts. Of course I do.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
It's a whole cohort of dodgy academic qualifications that can't be trusted basically. It's a headache, and will be very hard for universities, but it's not a catastrophe.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
Yes.
If universities have any sense, they will go after the government and say they will not accept mock results markedly different from estimated grades.
Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Edit- there is also extensive flooding in the area after major storms last night, so the ES were already at full stretch.
My wild guess is that there was a landslip or a tree fell into the cutting and the train crashed straight into it, but that's a guess and I very much hope I am totally wrong.
Would be an obvious conclusion. The radar shows well over 70mm of rain fell in the Stonehaven area from last night's convective system in a very short time.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
They have Trump winning 29 out of 100 simulations. The day before the 2016 Election they had Trump winning 28 out of every 100 simulations.
That's more or less the same chance as rolling a 9 or more with two dice.
Yep. But the uncertainty in this one is due to time. If the polling data is approx as it is now on the eve of the election Trump's 29% will be down in single digits.
1. The plane was packed, basically a full flight. Even in club class, not surprising given how cheap it was to upgrade. 2. Lots of complaints of random seating, one would have hoped that BA would suspend their punitive "sit couples/families who don't pay for seats all over the place" policy but no, they haven't. This surely increases transmission risk as people are sitting next to strangers rather than in their own bubble. 3. No significant special security or health measures, however, I noticed that the entry barrier at the gate had an infrared scanner and people were made to wait in it, Heathrow are definitely taking people's temperature before letting them board, though I'm not sure how rigourous they are. 4. Got chatting to the nearby hostess while the better half had a nap asked her how it's been, she said flights to and from Italy have been packed, everywhere else not so much. Some crew aren't pleased about serving on the US to UK flights as they worry about enforcement of the mask policy, also 100% compliance on this flight. I think Brits have taken to mask wearing in a way that I didn't expect when the policy was announced. 5. On the Italian side no special health measures, same old lax entry, no passport scan and for me not having to remove my mask, though my wife was asked (maybe because of the Swiss passport?).
Overall, long haul flights would be tough with the mask policy at least with a proper mask. Social distancing on planes is basically impossible. BA crew were great as always, it's a shame that the Spaniards have destroyed the airline and staff morale.
Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Edit- there is also extensive flooding in the area after major storms last night, so the ES were already at full stretch.
My wild guess is that there was a landslip or a tree fell into the cutting and the train crashed straight into it, but that's a guess and I very much hope I am totally wrong.
Would be an obvious conclusion. The radar shows well over 70mm of rain fell in the Stonehaven area from last night's convective system in a very short time.
Or the cutting might have flooded and the train hit standing water, but that doesn't explain some of the other things we're hearing.
2. Lots of complaints of random seating, one would have hoped that BA would suspend their punitive "sit couples/families who don't pay for seats all over the place" policy but no, they haven't. This surely increases transmission risk as people are sitting next to strangers rather than in their own bubble.
Poor form, the airlines aren't helping themselves in this.
Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Reported as the 06:38 Aberdeen - Glasgow, passed Stonehaven at 06:53 this morning so odd that BTP say they weren't called until nearly 3 hours later. Suggestion online that the train hit a landslip, derailed and then fell off an embankment. Its an HST so despite the trains being old and comfy they aren't remotely as robust as anything modern.
On the plus side, at least the engines are separate to the carriages.
So if those are correct it sounds as though it wasn't in a cutting, but on a corniche of some kind, it had been trying to return to Aberdeen due to blocked paths further up the line, and presumably therefore the landslip had been caused by its passing earlier setting up vibrations in a weakened bank.
It doesn't sound good. One dead and two seriously injured will be a significant proportion of the people on the train.
2. Lots of complaints of random seating, one would have hoped that BA would suspend their punitive "sit couples/families who don't pay for seats all over the place" policy but no, they haven't. This surely increases transmission risk as people are sitting next to strangers rather than in their own bubble.
Poor form, the airlines aren't helping themselves in this.
I went on the Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch Railway last week. It was very good and the carriages are ideal as each group has their own compartment. However, they insisted on everyone walking through their shops at each end (wearing masks), when it wasn't necessary. That annoyed me somewhat.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
I think over 15 in every subject. Possibly less in PE and Art.
They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking order in their algorithm aren`t they? Or - just the ranking??
Real Time trains are saying all trains on that line are cancelled due to flooding.
However, assuming they are wrong and it's because of this accident, it looks like the last train to run to Stonehaven was the Aberdeen to Edinburgh express, which can do up to 100 mph although as it was scheduled to stop at Stonehaven it probably wouldn't have been going that fast.
That doesn’t look good. Fingers crossed that there’s no serious injuries.
The use of “crashed” rather than the earlier “derailed” sounds rather ominous. From the pictures it looks the incident may have occurred in a cutting, which would be a nightmare for rescue teams.
And the rumour is the powercar has caught fire.
Which would at the very least not make matters easier.
Reported as the 06:38 Aberdeen - Glasgow, passed Stonehaven at 06:53 this morning so odd that BTP say they weren't called until nearly 3 hours later. Suggestion online that the train hit a landslip, derailed and then fell off an embankment. Its an HST so despite the trains being old and comfy they aren't remotely as robust as anything modern.
On the plus side, at least the engines are separate to the carriages.
Johnson did not have to lose Cummings. That was not the problem. The problem was the craven way he handled it. That he felt unable even to express disapproval.
"He acted as he saw fit in the best interests of his family and I will not mark him down for that."
An astonishing utterance from a PM in the circumstances. It laid bare his weakness of character. Told us all - or at least those of us with an interest and the relevant faculties - that he could not hack it without this one particular SPAD. This is unprecedented and it has (rightly) damaged him.
Not just that. All Dom had to do was apologise; "I was frightened, and I did something I shouldn't." It would have killed the story. But Dom couldn't do that, I imagine because his entire self-image is to be the SPAD equivalent of the Terminator.
Do you really believe an apology would have resolved all? Thats not how our vindictive media behaves. The apology then leads to the 'you've admitted it, now you must resign'. He of course should have apologised, but catastrophically in this country, politicians no longer apologise.
It's unlikely to have resolved it all, because the corpse of the story would have lingered. The story of every government is slow erosion of trust, as it turns out to be impossible to please everyone all of the time.
But a soft answer turneth away wrath, as the Proverb puts it. "Who among you has never made a mistake, never needed forgiveness?" could have been the message. If you think the media are vindictive, really show up their vindictiveness.
Much less damaging than pushing a story that everyone, deep down, knows contains an unhealthy proportion of cock and bull.
It's not though, the peak to trough for Spain was larger, Italy and France basically the same and Germany slightly better, they just had it spread over Q1 and Q2. It's irresponsible reporting tbh.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
I think over 15 in every subject. Possibly less in PE and Art.
They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking ordeer in their algorithm aren`t they?
Not for groups of over 15. They are using the ranking to an extent, but the grades are set by the algorithm.
So if those are correct it sounds as though it wasn't in a cutting, but on a corniche of some kind, it had been trying to return to Aberdeen due to blocked paths further up the line, and presumably therefore the landslip had been caused by its passing earlier setting up vibrations in a weakened bank.
It doesn't sound good. One dead and two seriously injured will be a significant proportion of the people on the train.
If confirmed that would be the first fatality in a crash/derailment on GB mainline rail since February 2007 (although the Sandilands tram crash was on a railway-like stretch of line).
Mr. Max, cheers for posting that. Any stats/graphs to hand, for the sake of comparison?
I was a bit surprised that we appear so hard hit. Portugal's confounded me until I remembered the tourism angle, but our apparently worse situation seemed unexpected.
The size of the dip isn't the biggest problem anyway. Furlough must have made the bottom of the slump worse, but are we arguing that it was a bad idea because of that?
Like everything connected to this virus, we won't know the full outcome for a good while yet.
So if those are correct it sounds as though it wasn't in a cutting, but on a corniche of some kind, it had been trying to return to Aberdeen due to blocked paths further up the line, and presumably therefore the landslip had been caused by its passing earlier setting up vibrations in a weakened bank.
It doesn't sound good. One dead and two seriously injured will be a significant proportion of the people on the train.
If confirmed that would be the first fatality in a crash/derailment on GB mainline rail since February 2007 (although the Sandilands tram crash was on a railway-like stretch of line).
Which in fairness is a pretty impressive safety record.
And as remaining the HSTs, 158s/153s and other elderly rolling stock are phased out over the next few years we can expect to see that safety record maintained.
It's unlikely to have resolved it all, because the corpse of the story would have lingered. The story of every government is slow erosion of trust, as it turns out to be impossible to please everyone all of the time.
But a soft answer turneth away wrath, as the Proverb puts it. "Who among you has never made a mistake, never needed forgiveness?" could have been the message. If you think the media are vindictive, really show up their vindictiveness.
Much less damaging than pushing a story that everyone, deep down, knows contains an unhealthy proportion of cock and bull.
An apology would have killed the story.
Now, several months on, the story is still "He thinks he didn't need to apologise because he thinks he's better than us"
Mr. Max, cheers for posting that. Any stats/graphs to hand, for the sake of comparison?
I was a bit surprised that we appear so hard hit. Portugal's confounded me until I remembered the tourism angle, but our apparently worse situation seemed unexpected.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
I think over 15 in every subject. Possibly less in PE and Art.
They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking ordeer in their algorithm aren`t they?
Not for groups of over 15. They are using the ranking to an extent, but the grades are set by the algorithm.
That's the reason I am calling bullshit on this system. It was sold to me as a teacher, and you as a parent, very differently.
This will end in the courts, and the government will get their arses handed to them, but that is not going to help for tomorrow and next Thursday.
I disagree with LuckyGuy - this is a catastrophe.
My daughter`s school have used the 4 factors to establish the ranking. So teacher`s assessment is still in the mix in this regard.
It is a catastrophe from a pupil self-esteem perspective for many - which will endure.
Also - Scottish pupils are being advantaged over English (and Welsh?) pupils because the inflated teacher assessed grades are being granted if higher than the algorithm. That is outrageous.
So if those are correct it sounds as though it wasn't in a cutting, but on a corniche of some kind, it had been trying to return to Aberdeen due to blocked paths further up the line, and presumably therefore the landslip had been caused by its passing earlier setting up vibrations in a weakened bank.
It doesn't sound good. One dead and two seriously injured will be a significant proportion of the people on the train.
If confirmed that would be the first fatality in a crash/derailment on GB mainline rail since February 2007 (although the Sandilands tram crash was on a railway-like stretch of line).
Which in fairness is a pretty impressive safety record.
And as remaining the HSTs, 158s/153s and other elderly rolling stock are phased out over the next few years we can expect to see that safety record maintained.
Yes, it's certainly true to say that the robustness of the Pendolino at Greyrigg reduced the death toll.
There have been some near misses in that time. The Watford Tunnel Derailment could have been catastrophic:
Also - Scottish pupils are being advantaged over English (and Welsh?) pupils because the inflated teacher assessed grades are being granted if higher than the algorithm. That is outrageous.
Give it 48 hours.
(With Welsh pupils I am guessing 90% of the A-level will be based on the AS grade, instead of the usual 50%.)
It's about a third of the way down the article and shows which country Americans regard as their most important ally. The UK is obviously first by a long way, but what about the 5% that think China is? Or the 3% that give Russia?
I assume that some of those were the same people as the 3% of Americans who believed in the 90s that they had been abducted by aliens.
Isn’t it a polling staple that 2% of the population will agree with the statement “I have been decapitated”?
Oh God - there`s going to be a heck of a lot of appeals. Or is there? It is well accepted that final exam grades are at least one grade higher in each subject than the mock result. Therefore, if the algorithm is broadly correct the grades "ought" to be higher than the mocks anyway.
Oh God - there`s going to be a heck of a lot of appeals. Or is there? It is well accepted that final exam grades are at least one grade higher in each subject than the mock result. Therefore, if the algorithm is broadly correct the grades "ought" to be higher than the mocks anyway.
Maybe,
The problem is we can be confident of only one thing - the algorithm isn't correct. The chaos it provoked in Scotland is proof enough of that.
So what exactly are students going to get tomorrow when they get their results? The algorithm driven grades with the ability to maybe appeal?
How long will the appeal take? What about university applications? How will clearing work if universities don’t know how many students with offers have met them?
The one thing you can be sure of from this Government.
They will pick the easiest solution without thinking and so make things worse.
Meanwhile I have stressed twins about to bite each others heads off..
The boy is too hung over today to be bothered - have advised him to return to the pub with his mates and not think about it.
I on the other hand cannot believe that even this government with their cabinet of sacked liars and idiots can manage something this dumb. Make a decision. Based on expert advice. Which will strike a reasonable balance. Communicate the decision out to all parties. Stick to it.
So if those are correct it sounds as though it wasn't in a cutting, but on a corniche of some kind, it had been trying to return to Aberdeen due to blocked paths further up the line, and presumably therefore the landslip had been caused by its passing earlier setting up vibrations in a weakened bank.
It doesn't sound good. One dead and two seriously injured will be a significant proportion of the people on the train.
If confirmed that would be the first fatality in a crash/derailment on GB mainline rail since February 2007 (although the Sandilands tram crash was on a railway-like stretch of line).
Transport safety, for all modes of transport, is markedly better than it was only a couple of decades ago. Huge advances in technology in planes, trains and automobiles have taken place mostly un-noticed by the general public.
Sad to hear of one fatality so far, let's hope that's the only one.
1. The plane was packed, basically a full flight. Even in club class, not surprising given how cheap it was to upgrade. 2. Lots of complaints of random seating, one would have hoped that BA would suspend their punitive "sit couples/families who don't pay for seats all over the place" policy but no, they haven't. This surely increases transmission risk as people are sitting next to strangers rather than in their own bubble. 3. No significant special security or health measures, however, I noticed that the entry barrier at the gate had an infrared scanner and people were made to wait in it, Heathrow are definitely taking people's temperature before letting them board, though I'm not sure how rigourous they are. 4. Got chatting to the nearby hostess while the better half had a nap asked her how it's been, she said flights to and from Italy have been packed, everywhere else not so much. Some crew aren't pleased about serving on the US to UK flights as they worry about enforcement of the mask policy, also 100% compliance on this flight. I think Brits have taken to mask wearing in a way that I didn't expect when the policy was announced. 5. On the Italian side no special health measures, same old lax entry, no passport scan and for me not having to remove my mask, though my wife was asked (maybe because of the Swiss passport?).
Overall, long haul flights would be tough with the mask policy at least with a proper mask. Social distancing on planes is basically impossible. BA crew were great as always, it's a shame that the Spaniards have destroyed the airline and staff morale.
BA's management are british (I don't buy the Spaniard excuse) - the company itself is crap because they regard their European competition as Easyjet rather than KLM, Air France and Lufthansa.
So what exactly are students going to get tomorrow when they get their results? The algorithm driven grades with the ability to maybe appeal?
How long will the appeal take? What about university applications? How will clearing work if universities don’t know how many students with offers have met them?
The annoying thing is, this was a foreseeable unforeseen shambles.
You can't just say, 'oh, it was coronavirus, there were no good options.' They've taken the worst one and made it much worse.
The one thing you can be sure of from this Government.
They will pick the easiest solution without thinking and so make things worse.
Meanwhile I have stressed twins about to bite each others heads off..
The only question is whether the last 12 hours are due to an utterly incompetent briefing last night, or we've seen a rapid reverse ferret once the government has realised that you can't use mock exams in the way implied by this morning's newspaper headlines.
Doesn't matter either way, the effect is just as bad. I'm so glad to not be running a sixth form support desk on Thursday. Or a uni admissions office.
So what exactly are students going to get tomorrow when they get their results? The algorithm driven grades with the ability to maybe appeal?
How long will the appeal take? What about university applications? How will clearing work if universities don’t know how many students with offers have met them?
The algorithm driven grades* (with very limited rights to appeal for narrow reasons: higher mocks and discrimination. That`s it, I think).
So what exactly are students going to get tomorrow when they get their results? The algorithm driven grades with the ability to maybe appeal?
How long will the appeal take? What about university applications? How will clearing work if universities don’t know how many students with offers have met them?
The algorithm driven grades* (with very limited rights to appeal for narrow reasons: higher mocks and discrimination. That`s it, I think).
“The military is ready to go, they’re ready to deliver a vaccine to Americans as soon as one is fully approved by the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] and we’re very close to that approval.”
As I have said he will do a massive annoucement 2-3 weeks before the election that the vaccine is approved. He will get the army to deliver it.There will be military style hospitals set up to deliver the vaccine in every US city. Americans will love it. I think he will win.
It's about a third of the way down the article and shows which country Americans regard as their most important ally. The UK is obviously first by a long way, but what about the 5% that think China is? Or the 3% that give Russia?
I assume that some of those were the same people as the 3% of Americans who believed in the 90s that they had been abducted by aliens.
Isn’t it a polling staple that 2% of the population will agree with the statement “I have been decapitated”?
... and furthered agreed with the statement "Being decapitated has substantially improved my IQ"...
Oh dear, Sky News are quoting that rail forum thread. They really are a gutter news outfit.
They do the same with PPruNe, the pilot forum, whenever there's an incident involving a plane.
It's the insidious nature of 24-hour news, they can't bear to say that they have nothing to say. They'd rather upset families of those involved by spouting uninformed bollocks from an anonymous internet user.
So what exactly are students going to get tomorrow when they get their results? The algorithm driven grades with the ability to maybe appeal?
How long will the appeal take? What about university applications? How will clearing work if universities don’t know how many students with offers have met them?
The algorithm driven grades* (with very limited rights to appeal for narrow reasons: higher mocks and discrimination. That`s it, I think).
*assuming over 15 pupils in the subject cohort
So this “triple lock” thing is b*llocks?
Fancy that.
No - not quite bollocks - though it snuggles up to that description.
Either 1) the Ofqual grade 2) appeal based on mocks or 3) take the bloody exam in the autumn.
"Death is my friend" or "My friend is dead" but, specifically:
"My friend is Death"
?
Hmm, simple answer would be mi amiga es la muerte, but I'm guessing that there are subtleties (My friend is death vs Death is my friend) that's not getting, which probably needs more literary Spanish than mine.
The apparent time gap to the emergency services turning up may be due to a long time being taken to decide what to do with the train when it encountered the first landslip.
"Death is my friend" or "My friend is dead" but, specifically:
"My friend is Death"
?
Hmm, simple answer would be mi amiga es la muerte, but I'm guessing that there are subtleties (My friend is death vs Death is my friend) that's not getting, which probably needs more literary Spanish than mine.
“The military is ready to go, they’re ready to deliver a vaccine to Americans as soon as one is fully approved by the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] and we’re very close to that approval.”
As I have said he will do a massive annoucement 2-3 weeks before the election that the vaccine is approved. He will get the army to deliver it.There will be military style hospitals set up to deliver the vaccine in every US city. Americans will love it. I think he will win.
"Death is my friend" or "My friend is dead" but, specifically:
"My friend is Death"
?
Hmm, simple answer would be mi amiga es la muerte, but I'm guessing that there are subtleties (My friend is death vs Death is my friend) that's not getting, which probably needs more literary Spanish than mine.
Has to be in the subjunctive in Spanish as it is expressing abstraction/emotion.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
I think over 15 in every subject. Possibly less in PE and Art.
They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking ordeer in their algorithm aren`t they?
Not for groups of over 15. They are using the ranking to an extent, but the grades are set by the algorithm.
That's the reason I am calling bullshit on this system. It was sold to me as a teacher, and you as a parent, very differently.
This will end in the courts, and the government will get their arses handed to them, but that is not going to help for tomorrow and next Thursday.
I disagree with LuckyGuy - this is a catastrophe.
My daughter`s school have used the 4 factors to establish the ranking. So teacher`s assessment is still in the mix in this regard.
It is a catastrophe from a pupil self-esteem perspective for many - which will endure.
Also - Scottish pupils are being advantaged over English (and Welsh?) pupils because the inflated teacher assessed grades are being granted if higher than the algorithm. That is outrageous.
Suck it up, it must be first time ever that Scotland's pupils got any advantage. I never hear you whining and snivelling about all the disadvantaging.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.
Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.
My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):
- Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation. - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students. - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards. - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades. - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of. - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.) - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored. - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”. - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.
I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.
That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.
Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
Mine haven't.
I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.
And since then, nothing.
Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test) - Year 10 exam results - Mock results - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown) - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
I think over 15 in every subject. Possibly less in PE and Art.
They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking ordeer in their algorithm aren`t they?
Not for groups of over 15. They are using the ranking to an extent, but the grades are set by the algorithm.
That's the reason I am calling bullshit on this system. It was sold to me as a teacher, and you as a parent, very differently.
This will end in the courts, and the government will get their arses handed to them, but that is not going to help for tomorrow and next Thursday.
I disagree with LuckyGuy - this is a catastrophe.
My daughter`s school have used the 4 factors to establish the ranking. So teacher`s assessment is still in the mix in this regard.
It is a catastrophe from a pupil self-esteem perspective for many - which will endure.
Also - Scottish pupils are being advantaged over English (and Welsh?) pupils because the inflated teacher assessed grades are being granted if higher than the algorithm. That is outrageous.
Suck it up, it must be first time ever that Scotland's pupils got any advantage. I never hear you whining and snivelling about all the disadvantaging.
REally Malc? I thought Scotland's education system was the envy of the world?
whilst I by no means agree with everything that is written here, it is a good example of the sort of longform journalism that seems to be so lacking in most of our publications either online or offline today.
I love the BBC News saying the 8.7% increase in June was a slight bounce back.
I imagine that a 8.7% month on month increase is probably the biggest increase since WW2, but according to the BBC it is just a slight bounce back.
It's almost certainly the greatest increase ever. Despite everything the UK economy grew in May and June, it almost certainly continued to do so in July and up to today. Eyeballing the charts I think it's quite likely that we have already recovered over half of the drop from the February peak.
If the driver walks away from that, they have been very, very lucky.
The carriages look terrible. One underneath, one upside down, one precariously balanced.
Must have been quite an impact to leave them in that state.
Edit - although clearly I was wrong upthread and it did help that it wasn't all one unit. If it had been, the whole lot would have gone down the bank. Equally, you might not have had such a bad pileup on the tracks.
Comments
https://twitter.com/ChristopherHarv/status/1293497830800228354?s=20
My daughter`s school supplied:
- cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test)
- Year 10 exam results
- Mock results
- Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown)
- And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.
Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
But yes, the old class 43s and presumably Mark 3 coaches are forty years old and certainly less strongly built than say a Pendolino or Voyager. Moreover, their very age means they're not as robust.
If they were doing any speed at all this will be bad. THe one thing that might keep casualties low is that there are unlikely to be many people on the train.
As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
Edit: as the video posted above suggests, it looks like the fleet of emergency vehicles is a standard response to an incident involving a train - it's easier to get everyone there immediately and stand them down if not required, than the other way around.
The day before the 2016 Election they had Trump winning 28 out of every 100 simulations.
That's more or less the same chance as rolling a 9 or more with two dice.
This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
If universities have any sense, they will go after the government and say they will not accept mock results markedly different from estimated grades.
But that will make matters worse again.
However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/stonehaven-derailment.207648/
Economist model: Biden 88%, Trump 11%
Nate Silver model: Biden 71%, Trump 29%
Betfair mid-prices: Biden 61%, Trump 37% (plus non-zero probs for a few stragglers)
1. The plane was packed, basically a full flight. Even in club class, not surprising given how cheap it was to upgrade.
2. Lots of complaints of random seating, one would have hoped that BA would suspend their punitive "sit couples/families who don't pay for seats all over the place" policy but no, they haven't. This surely increases transmission risk as people are sitting next to strangers rather than in their own bubble.
3. No significant special security or health measures, however, I noticed that the entry barrier at the gate had an infrared scanner and people were made to wait in it, Heathrow are definitely taking people's temperature before letting them board, though I'm not sure how rigourous they are.
4. Got chatting to the nearby hostess while the better half had a nap asked her how it's been, she said flights to and from Italy have been packed, everywhere else not so much. Some crew aren't pleased about serving on the US to UK flights as they worry about enforcement of the mask policy, also 100% compliance on this flight. I think Brits have taken to mask wearing in a way that I didn't expect when the policy was announced.
5. On the Italian side no special health measures, same old lax entry, no passport scan and for me not having to remove my mask, though my wife was asked (maybe because of the Swiss passport?).
Overall, long haul flights would be tough with the mask policy at least with a proper mask. Social distancing on planes is basically impossible. BA crew were great as always, it's a shame that the Spaniards have destroyed the airline and staff morale.
It doesn't sound good. One dead and two seriously injured will be a significant proportion of the people on the train.
They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking order in their algorithm aren`t they? Or - just the ranking??
But a soft answer turneth away wrath, as the Proverb puts it. "Who among you has never made a mistake, never needed forgiveness?" could have been the message. If you think the media are vindictive, really show up their vindictiveness.
Much less damaging than pushing a story that everyone, deep down, knows contains an unhealthy proportion of cock and bull.
https://www.tes.com/news/GCSE-results-2020-teacher-grades-ignored
That's the reason I am calling bullshit on this system. It was sold to me as a teacher, and you as a parent, very differently.
This will end in the courts, and the government will get their arses handed to them, but that is not going to help for tomorrow and next Thursday.
I disagree with LuckyGuy - this is a catastrophe.
I imagine that a 8.7% month on month increase is probably the biggest increase since WW2, but according to the BBC it is just a slight bounce back.
I was a bit surprised that we appear so hard hit. Portugal's confounded me until I remembered the tourism angle, but our apparently worse situation seemed unexpected.
The size of the dip isn't the biggest problem anyway. Furlough must have made the bottom of the slump worse, but are we arguing that it was a bad idea because of that?
Like everything connected to this virus, we won't know the full outcome for a good while yet.
And as remaining the HSTs, 158s/153s and other elderly rolling stock are phased out over the next few years we can expect to see that safety record maintained.
Now, several months on, the story is still "He thinks he didn't need to apologise because he thinks he's better than us"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/a-level-choose-mock-results-chaos-a4522831.html
Edited extra bit: and, with that, I'm buggering off.
It is a catastrophe from a pupil self-esteem perspective for many - which will endure.
Also - Scottish pupils are being advantaged over English (and Welsh?) pupils because the inflated teacher assessed grades are being granted if higher than the algorithm. That is outrageous.
There have been some near misses in that time. The Watford Tunnel Derailment could have been catastrophic:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-40885490
And the Eastleigh Derailment earlier this year could have been bad too.
(With Welsh pupils I am guessing 90% of the A-level will be based on the AS grade, instead of the usual 50%.)
They will pick the easiest solution without thinking and so make things worse.
Meanwhile I have stressed twins about to bite each others heads off..
Maybe,
Or both, of course.
How long will the appeal take? What about university applications? How will clearing work if universities don’t know how many students with offers have met them?
I on the other hand cannot believe that even this government with their cabinet of sacked liars and idiots can manage something this dumb. Make a decision. Based on expert advice. Which will strike a reasonable balance. Communicate the decision out to all parties. Stick to it.
Sad to hear of one fatality so far, let's hope that's the only one.
You can't just say, 'oh, it was coronavirus, there were no good options.' They've taken the worst one and made it much worse.
Doesn't matter either way, the effect is just as bad. I'm so glad to not be running a sixth form support desk on Thursday. Or a uni admissions office.
*assuming over 15 pupils in the subject cohort
Thats if they have the stomach for the incoming.
https://twitter.com/NetworkRailSCOT/status/1293469586193612805
https://twitter.com/Evening_Tele/status/1293512488550633472
"My friend is Death" in Spanish?
Not
"Death is my friend" or "My friend is dead" but, specifically:
"My friend is Death"
?
Fancy that.
Interesting and perhaps worrying report on Turkish /Greek relations from EU Observer today.
https://euobserver.com/news/149131?utm_source=euobs&utm_medium=email
“The military is ready to go, they’re ready to deliver a vaccine to Americans as soon as one is fully approved by the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] and we’re very close to that approval.”
As I have said he will do a massive annoucement 2-3 weeks before the election that the vaccine is approved. He will get the army to deliver it.There will be military style hospitals set up to deliver the vaccine in every US city. Americans will love it. I think he will win.
It's the insidious nature of 24-hour news, they can't bear to say that they have nothing to say. They'd rather upset families of those involved by spouting uninformed bollocks from an anonymous internet user.
Either 1) the Ofqual grade 2) appeal based on mocks or 3) take the bloody exam in the autumn.
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/stonehaven-derailment.207648/page-4#post-4716856
Mississippi rejects state flag featuring giant mosquito
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/11/mississippi-state-flag-mosquito
That would be a great flag.
https://twitter.com/EWagsterPettus/status/1292949031652663296
Is that thing underneath the power car, or the lead carriage?
It must have been going quite fast to get into that state as well.
whilst I by no means agree with everything that is written here, it is a good example of the sort of longform journalism that seems to be so lacking in most of our publications either online or offline today.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/?fbclid=IwAR0403yx3S--ja-JioSc66uWjOnTnCjfolkI_CU4GCopPE7JYU_Q7_FT4h0
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/stonehaven-derailment.207648/page-4#post-4716855
The carriages look terrible. One underneath, one upside down, one precariously balanced.
Must have been quite an impact to leave them in that state.
Edit - although clearly I was wrong upthread and it did help that it wasn't all one unit. If it had been, the whole lot would have gone down the bank. Equally, you might not have had such a bad pileup on the tracks.
https://twitter.com/OYCar/status/1293370534017695745
Which is also suggested by this story on the San Quentin jail outbreak:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-11/san-quentin-coronavirus-herd-immunity-covid-19