Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Undefined discussion subject.

123457»

Comments

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    The link between the £/$ exchange rate and the FTSE 100 is almost perfectly inverse, thanks to most of the largest British companies earning the majority of their income overseas.

    The rise is the FTSE today is more likely on the basis of expectations of a V-shaped recovery. The stats, while not good objectively, were not as bad as the markets had feared.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    There’s such an easy Godwin I could pull there.

    But I will content myself with mentioning Fianna Fáil, still calling itself a Republican Party 71 years after a Republic was achieved (ironically by their opponents).
    I suppose the word National in the party name could be deemed to be an ongoing asset. But they will need to rebrand and to choose a clearer political identity because the current one - the realization of an independent Scotland - will have become redundant.
    The wisest pressure group in history was the Anti-Corn Law League.

    The day after the Corn Laws were repealed, they held a huge banquet, then dissolved the League on the spot.

    (Do not believe Wikipedia claims to the contrary - they are confusing it with a different organisation.)
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    Typical thread on transport forum when there is a major incident:

    20% "Thoughts & prayers..."
    20% Speculation
    20% "It's too early to speculate..."
    20% Wonky trivia
    20% Useful posts
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249

    Typical thread on transport forum when there is a major incident:

    20% "Thoughts & prayers..."
    20% Speculation
    20% "It's too early to speculate..."
    20% Wonky trivia
    20% Useful posts

    To quote CS Forester, ‘Speculation is surely a fascinating thing, Sir Horatio.’
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    London voting intention for UK elections, via @RedfieldWilton, 5-7 August (changes since 2019)

    LAB 48% (-)
    CON 29% (-3)
    LD 14% (-1)
    GRN 7% (+4)

    Labour would likely gain Chingford, Chipping Barnet and Kensington

    Lab gain Kensington is almost certain next time round I think, even if the Tories move ahead of where they were.
    Really? How did they manage to lose it in 2019?
    An absolute knobber as an MP
    Not many MPs have personal votes. I doubt too many have anti-votes ala Neil Hamilton. I think Labour's hope in Kensinton is that enough of those that voted Lib Dem can vote Labour next time due to Starmer.
    The swing in Kensington was only 0.2% to the Tories compared to 9.6% nationwide. Broadly I think Keir gets back the "I'm not voting for Corbyn" votes more easily than the "Brexit Brexit Brexit" votes, enough of those probably went for Gyimah last time round to push Kensington back Labour even against a small swing to the Tories broadly - which I doubt happens in 2024.
    The national swing to the Tories in 2019 was 4.8% - not 9.6%.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Um doesn't the Barnett Formula mean that Scotland receives more per capita then England does as government spending increases to reflect Scotland's additional costs...

    The fact that millions are then wasted on free University education and other similar differences (prescriptions being another) doesn't mean you need more money, Scotland already receives more per capita, it just needs to be better at spending it.
    No it does not cover it, they only include whatever spending they think in Barnett, huge amounts they keep out so as to starve Scotland of consequentials. Most of the money is controlled by London and they decide where most of it can be spent , so Scottish Government cannot just switch money about , England tell them where it must be spent. We are not thick and just spray money about , what little they can budget themselves is well spent on suiting Scotland, the majority is controlled by England and large chunks of it kept there and spent on what they want not what we need. The shite per capita numbers are made up crap by English government , most of which they have spent on rubbish we do not want , they just allocate it to try and make Scotland look bad. Go and read up how crap the Barnett formula is an dhow much they deliberately exclude from it and the amount of their crap expenditure they lump onto Scotland.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,458
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stocky said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:
    It seems reasonable to me?

    If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
    It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.

    Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.

    It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
    What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
    Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.

    Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
    Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.

    Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
    As I understand it, the algorithm looked at a school's previous results and the SATS of this cohort to see if the predicted grades looked reasonable. That might have the effect of giving downgrades to bright kids in poor areas but it doesn't necessarily follow. In Scotland the gap between schools in poor areas and other schools is much bigger than the equivalent gap in England. Also, the evidence in Scotland strongly suggests that teachers in the schools in poor areas were more likely to overegg their predictions than teachers in other areas.

    Given that the link between income and educational outcomes is much weaker in England than in Scotland there is a decent chance that the algorithm wasn't simply downgrading kids in poor areas.

    My view is that the move to predicted grades in Scotland means that Scottish grades for this year no longer have any credibility - the improvement in performance compared with previous years is too much to be believable. The change that has been made in England also reduces the credibility of grades. In my view they should have stuck with the approach they were using.
    To clarify the process (I hope, and with apologies to the teachers on here):

    - Schools provided ranking within subject and predicted grades. The ranking was key because it was always clear that grades would be subject to moderation.
    - Teachers everywhere tended to over-predict grades. This is natural - most teachers are optimistic and want the best for their students.
    - Some schools looked at the grades they had predicted and realised they were just not realistic and they’d never get through Ofqual’s moderation process, so they revised them downwards.
    - Other schools submitted their higher (over-optimistic) grades.
    - Overall schools reported a 12% improvement in grades this year, which is unheard of.
    - Ofqual’s algorithm did what it was always intended to do and reduced the “inflated” grades based on data it holds about schools’ and pupils’ past performance. (For example, it would recognise if a school had an exceptionally high-performing A level cohort from its earlier GCSE results.)
    - It turned out that the schools predicting the biggest increases tended to be schools with lower prior results. The reasons for this have not really been explored.
    - The media spun this as sinister algorithms “targeting” disadvantaged children in a “postcode lottery”.
    - It is true that an exceptional student in a school with historically lower results might lose out. That’s also true for a school which has genuinely improved significantly in the last year.

    I believe what has happened in Scotland is similar to the above.
    As I said there should have been a feedback loop back to the schools saying you are x% wrong please fix or justify.

    That loop was completely missed resulting in this current grade A clusterfuck.

    Meanwhile I suspect a lot of bad mock papers are rapidly being shredded to allow schools to fix the problem by using the "mock" results.
    The Mock results have already been communicated to OFQUAL.
    Mine haven't.

    I was asked for a grade based on all the evidence available. It specifically said mock results were not the only or even most important piece of evidence required.

    And since then, nothing.
    Oh no. That make this all even worse than I thought.

    My daughter`s school supplied:

    - cognitive ability tests (i.e. IQ test)
    - Year 10 exam results
    - Mock results
    - Teacher assess grade based on mark book evidence (inc work set while in lockdown)
    - And - of course - the teachers had to "rank" pupils in each subject.

    Can you confirm that the centre assessed grade will be revealed to pupils/parents?
    You have misunderstood the process. They didn't *provide* that because they were not permitted to actually send evidence in. They used the first four to set the grades, within which students were ranked, as the last one, and *that* is what got sent to OFQUAL. Nothing more, nothing less.

    As for your second question, I have no idea. I assume it depends on the school. What we have found out is why OFQUAL were so obsessed with secrecy over the process including making bizarre legal threats.
    Oh - thanks for that. Reading the letter from the school, you are correct that it doesn`t actually say that that information will be sent in, though I feel that that was what was implied.

    This is ridiculous, then, because schools now have an opportunity to doctor the mock results. Let`s not be naive - some will.
    INcidentally, the process used by your daughter's school sounds both rigorous and fair to me. Not very different from the one I used, although I probably had more exam data than they did.

    However - how large would the entry be in each of her subjects? Because anything over 15 and that's wasted effort.
    I think over 15 in every subject. Possibly less in PE and Art.

    They have used the 4 factors, as discussed, to come up with a predicted grade and ranking order for each subject. So, why is it wasted effort? Ofqual are using the predicted grade and ranking ordeer in their algorithm aren`t they?
    Not for groups of over 15. They are using the ranking to an extent, but the grades are set by the algorithm.

    https://www.tes.com/news/GCSE-results-2020-teacher-grades-ignored

    That's the reason I am calling bullshit on this system. It was sold to me as a teacher, and you as a parent, very differently.

    This will end in the courts, and the government will get their arses handed to them, but that is not going to help for tomorrow and next Thursday.

    I disagree with LuckyGuy - this is a catastrophe.
    My daughter`s school have used the 4 factors to establish the ranking. So teacher`s assessment is still in the mix in this regard.

    It is a catastrophe from a pupil self-esteem perspective for many - which will endure.

    Also - Scottish pupils are being advantaged over English (and Welsh?) pupils because the inflated teacher assessed grades are being granted if higher than the algorithm. That is outrageous.
    Suck it up, it must be first time ever that Scotland's pupils got any advantage. I never hear you whining and snivelling about all the disadvantaging.
    But surely education is a devolved matter therefore you should be blaming holyrood for any disadvantage
    They can only work with what they get from English parliament , so one hand tied behind their backs as usual.
    From https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/school-spending#:~:text=Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland,own decisions on school spending.&text=Scotland also had the highest,Northern Ireland (£5,500).

    Scotland also had the highest spending per pupil in 2018–19 (£6,600), followed by England (£6,000), Wales (£5,800) and Northern Ireland (£5,500).

    Care to come up with another excuse why scottish pupils are disadvantaged vs english pupils or willing to accept the problem lies at holyrood as the problem certainly isn't funding.
    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.
    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    You idiot , what can you do without funding , if you do not control funding you control ZERO. Jog on.
    You control how the funding is spent and you get funding according to pupil numbers you have 100,000 pupils you get 6,6 billion to spend. How you spend it is then down to holyrood . Its nothing more to do with england or the uk parliament its down to currently the snp and greens to allocate how funds are spent.

    You get more funding per pupil than england does so its totally down to holyrood choices on how they allocate that cash sum they receive and if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged vs english ones then you should be looking at how holyrood allocates that funding they receive.

    I can't explain it any simpler as sadly my crayons have melted in the heat
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    eek said:

    sarissa said:

    eek said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Um doesn't the Barnett Formula mean that Scotland receives more per capita then England does as government spending increases to reflect Scotland's additional costs...

    The fact that millions are then wasted on free University education and other similar differences (prescriptions being another) doesn't mean you need more money, Scotland already receives more per capita, it just needs to be better at spending it.
    No, the Barnett Formula is an equalisation measure - Scotland gets a reduced % of UK spending increases compared to its current share.
    You may wish to actually look at the actual formulas (say at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula ) rather than believing the lies the SNP continually repeat.

    The formulas are designed to keep everything consistent, so that whatever additional percentages was set years ago to cover the additional costs Scotland and co incur continue for ever. So if Scotland got £1.05 for every £1 in England, as England added £1, Scotland would get an extra £1.05....

    Now its possible that there are areas where Scotland receives less per capita than people in England do but given that Scotland loves to complain about how badly they are treated if any such situations actually existed we would hear about it every second of every minute of every hour of every day.
    More bollox, why don't you suggest all the money goes to Scotland and we will decide how much England gets and what it will be spent on. Try and use an F**ing brain cell, or give your neighbour your salary from now and ask him to run your affairs how he wishes and decide how much cash you get and decide where he spends the rest of your cash. FFS.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Are you opposed to, say, Tibetan nationalism, or that of any of the countries of the USSR that weren't Russia? Is it wrong that Norway and Poland are countries? It seems to broad a category of things to be monolithically for or against.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    If you had been reading my posts on this stuff the gain would not be surprising, the figures are much better than expected and the headline hides a lot of good news.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    The FTSE is undervalued generally I think though. Certainly compared to the US.
    Yes, I would short the US if I were still doing that sort of thing.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    Ah, an important distinction, thanks. I suspect the unemployment figures will start rising very soon though.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    There’s such an easy Godwin I could pull there.

    But I will content myself with mentioning Fianna Fáil, still calling itself a Republican Party 71 years after a Republic was achieved (ironically by their opponents).
    I suppose the word National in the party name could be deemed to be an ongoing asset. But they will need to rebrand and to choose a clearer political identity because the current one - the realization of an independent Scotland - will have become redundant.
    The wisest pressure group in history was the Anti-Corn Law League.

    The day after the Corn Laws were repealed, they held a huge banquet, then dissolved the League on the spot.

    (Do not believe Wikipedia claims to the contrary - they are confusing it with a different organisation.)
    Sort of stuff you know.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    London voting intention for UK elections, via @RedfieldWilton, 5-7 August (changes since 2019)

    LAB 48% (-)
    CON 29% (-3)
    LD 14% (-1)
    GRN 7% (+4)

    Labour would likely gain Chingford, Chipping Barnet and Kensington

    Lab gain Kensington is almost certain next time round I think, even if the Tories move ahead of where they were.
    Really? How did they manage to lose it in 2019?
    An absolute knobber as an MP
    Not many MPs have personal votes. I doubt too many have anti-votes ala Neil Hamilton. I think Labour's hope in Kensinton is that enough of those that voted Lib Dem can vote Labour next time due to Starmer.
    Thats my point. The Labour MP had shown that she was reprehensible. And there were sane Tory and LibDem candidates in 2019. Why vote for the silly candidate when sensible alternatives are there. She stood on the rostrum when the 2019 results were read out with her fist in the air FFS
    Labour's loss of Kensington was due to the misdirected Tactical Voting campaign as a result of which many voted LD in the mistaken belief their candidate was better placed to beat the Tories. Without that Labour would probably have held the seat with an increased majority.
  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    If you had been reading my posts on this stuff the gain would not be surprising, the figures are much better than expected and the headline hides a lot of good news.
    A 20% drop in GDP is "much better than expected"????

    Pray tell. It is, for what it is worth, roughly what I was expecting. A fifth of shops and pubs are shuttered. We've lost a fifth of the economy.

    How bad were you expecting, and why?

    Sincere questions. You're a smart commenter and it's always nice to hear an optimistic take
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
    538's model has it going to Trump.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    If you had been reading my posts on this stuff the gain would not be surprising, the figures are much better than expected and the headline hides a lot of good news.
    A 20% drop in GDP is "much better than expected"????

    Pray tell. It is, for what it is worth, roughly what I was expecting. A fifth of shops and pubs are shuttered. We've lost a fifth of the economy.

    How bad were you expecting, and why?

    Sincere questions. You're a smart commenter and it's always nice to hear an optimistic take
    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/august-2020-gdp-tracker#.XzP-6B7RbxM

    Sums it up better than I can at the moment. No access to data.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    justin124 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    London voting intention for UK elections, via @RedfieldWilton, 5-7 August (changes since 2019)

    LAB 48% (-)
    CON 29% (-3)
    LD 14% (-1)
    GRN 7% (+4)

    Labour would likely gain Chingford, Chipping Barnet and Kensington

    Lab gain Kensington is almost certain next time round I think, even if the Tories move ahead of where they were.
    Really? How did they manage to lose it in 2019?
    An absolute knobber as an MP
    Not many MPs have personal votes. I doubt too many have anti-votes ala Neil Hamilton. I think Labour's hope in Kensinton is that enough of those that voted Lib Dem can vote Labour next time due to Starmer.
    Thats my point. The Labour MP had shown that she was reprehensible. And there were sane Tory and LibDem candidates in 2019. Why vote for the silly candidate when sensible alternatives are there. She stood on the rostrum when the 2019 results were read out with her fist in the air FFS
    Labour's loss of Kensington was due to the misdirected Tactical Voting campaign as a result of which many voted LD in the mistaken belief their candidate was better placed to beat the Tories. Without that Labour would probably have held the seat with an increased majority.
    Would there have been nearly so much voting for the Liberal Democrats had Labour’s candidate not been batshit crazy and a nasty piece of work?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    I know quite a few British people who have moved to other European countries during the pandemic for work.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    eek said:

    sarissa said:

    eek said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Um doesn't the Barnett Formula mean that Scotland receives more per capita then England does as government spending increases to reflect Scotland's additional costs...

    The fact that millions are then wasted on free University education and other similar differences (prescriptions being another) doesn't mean you need more money, Scotland already receives more per capita, it just needs to be better at spending it.
    No, the Barnett Formula is an equalisation measure - Scotland gets a reduced % of UK spending increases compared to its current share.
    You may wish to actually look at the actual formulas (say at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula ) rather than believing the lies the SNP continually repeat.

    The formulas are designed to keep everything consistent, so that whatever additional percentages was set years ago to cover the additional costs Scotland and co incur continue for ever. So if Scotland got £1.05 for every £1 in England, as England added £1, Scotland would get an extra £1.05....

    Now its possible that there are areas where Scotland receives less per capita than people in England do but given that Scotland loves to complain about how badly they are treated if any such situations actually existed we would hear about it every second of every minute of every hour of every day.
    They just put huge lumps of spending outside it to frig the system , pretty shit when you are trying to spin wikipedia , we are shat upon regularly despite having sent a very large surplus to England over last 40 years.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/education/teachers-head-to-uae-to-take-up-new-jobs-as-schools-prepare-to-reopen-1.1061696
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/education/teachers-head-to-uae-to-take-up-new-jobs-as-schools-prepare-to-reopen-1.1061696
    Well it says there that they actually reduced overseas hires during the pandemic.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The eyebrow raising on the economic data on here is a bit strange.

    What effect do people expect from the mandatory closing of parts of the economy, along with extended house arrest and a powerful campaign of fear-spreading propaganda?

    The damage is enormous. COVID itself played a big part, of course, but so did these other things.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    That's a very fair and cogent analysis.

    The irony is that it partly support's Dom Cummings' diagnosis of the nation's ill, even as it condemns him and Boris.

    Britain has failed the test of the virus. Dismally. But it may- if we are lucky - give us the determination and self-awareness to finally tackle these deeper problems exposed by Covid.
    The Conservative Party has been in power since 2010. It was their responsibility to ensure we were in a position to endure a crisis, and it was their responsibility to ensure the “machinery of government” was in a fit state.

    They have objectively failed on both of those metrics.
    I cannot argue either point.

    I don't think Labour would have been better, mind you.

    As the article says, the virus has exposed deep systemic problems in the British political/intellectual Establishment. Groupthink. Laziness. Cowardice. Complacency. Basic stupidity.

    The entire machinery which runs the British state is rusted. From the scientists to the civil service. And our worship of the NHS does not help.
    You nailed it the other day with the comment about how having so much of the establishment processed through our elite private schools - and thus drawn from a narrow pool of the socially and financially advantaged - leads to mediocrity.

    Course you could have been just kidding - but we take what we can get.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    What's wrong with seeking to make your country great?

    That slogan has become associated with Trump who is malign, but he is malign not because of nationalism but because he is an ignorant, selfish extremist.
  • Options

    The eyebrow raising on the economic data on here is a bit strange.

    What effect do people expect from the mandatory closing of parts of the economy, along with extended house arrest and a powerful campaign of fear-spreading propaganda?

    The damage is enormous. COVID itself played a big part, of course, but so did these other things.

    No the damage is contained.

    The damage is enormous elsewhere, where the virus isn't contained and has gone wild. That containing a pandemic in a public health emergency ultimately improves the economy is not a new concept.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    @Malcolmg , @eek
    In the 80s Scotland definitely contributed more than its fair share with North Sea Oil revenues being UK revenue when the counterfactual of an independent Scotland would have most of that particular loot for itself.
    No idea on an overall basis from 1707 to present mind.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Scottish voting intention for UK Parliament elections, via YouGov, 6-10 August (changes since 24-27 April):

    SNP: 54% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-5)
    LAB: 16% (+1)
    LD: 5% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-)
    BXP: 2% (+2)


    SNP: 58 (+4)
    LAB: 1 (-)
    CON: 0 (-3)
    LD: 0 (-1)

    The Tories have more than three seats in Scotland, and the Liberal Democrats have more than one.

    Similarly, the SNP do not have 54 seats (rather, 48).
    In reality it is unlikely the SNP would win 58 Wesminster seats. LDs very likely to hold at least Orkney & Shetland and I suspect Labour would exceed 20% in any early GE.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,458
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
    It's very difficult for anyone to make a judgement about how benign something is when they're in the inside group. I've experienced plenty of anti-English 'racism' whilst I've been here (as well as of course some of the most polite and charming people I've ever met). I'm not going to cry into my soup about it, but I'm not going to label it as somehow heroic either.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    I suspect that lot of the hospitality staff from the EU will be either on the way home shortly if not already.

    Our tourist industry does seem to be staffed by charming East Europeans, but I do wonder if it provides much domestic employment in places like London. I cannot recall the last time I was checked in by a non Pole.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    That was a pretty awesome peak of thunder. Never known the house actually shake before.

    Having got off lightly yesterday (where I could watch the lightning outside after sunset as Wolverhampton got it) I think we’re about to have payback here.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    The CNBC Change poll is a bit weird. It's a poll of 6 battle ground states (PA, MI, FL, AZ, NC, WI) which overall Biden is winning 48-44

    And in each of them where there is a Senate race the Dem Senate candidate is winning, in NC by 5 points.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    London voting intention for UK elections, via @RedfieldWilton, 5-7 August (changes since 2019)

    LAB 48% (-)
    CON 29% (-3)
    LD 14% (-1)
    GRN 7% (+4)

    Labour would likely gain Chingford, Chipping Barnet and Kensington

    Lab gain Kensington is almost certain next time round I think, even if the Tories move ahead of where they were.
    Really? How did they manage to lose it in 2019?
    An absolute knobber as an MP
    Not many MPs have personal votes. I doubt too many have anti-votes ala Neil Hamilton. I think Labour's hope in Kensinton is that enough of those that voted Lib Dem can vote Labour next time due to Starmer.
    Thats my point. The Labour MP had shown that she was reprehensible. And there were sane Tory and LibDem candidates in 2019. Why vote for the silly candidate when sensible alternatives are there. She stood on the rostrum when the 2019 results were read out with her fist in the air FFS
    Labour's loss of Kensington was due to the misdirected Tactical Voting campaign as a result of which many voted LD in the mistaken belief their candidate was better placed to beat the Tories. Without that Labour would probably have held the seat with an increased majority.
    Would there have been nearly so much voting for the Liberal Democrats had Labour’s candidate not been batshit crazy and a nasty piece of work?
    You have a point there - but the key dynamic was misleading polling data from early in the campaign which suggested the LD candidate - a Tory defector - was best placed to win. Without that, I am sure Labour would have won .
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/education/teachers-head-to-uae-to-take-up-new-jobs-as-schools-prepare-to-reopen-1.1061696
    Well it says there that they actually reduced overseas hires during the pandemic.
    Because the schools have been closed since late January and the borders were shut for three months!
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
    I don't expect Biden to win NC.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,657
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    We lost several EU doctors and nurses, who headed home.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
    Ah benign Scotland.

    SO benign, in fact, that it needs draconian hate speech laws far in excess of England to curb 'stirring up hatred'.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,680
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    Many EU citizens may have chosen to return home - especially those in hospitality.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/education/teachers-head-to-uae-to-take-up-new-jobs-as-schools-prepare-to-reopen-1.1061696
    Well it says there that they actually reduced overseas hires during the pandemic.
    Because the schools have been closed since late January and the borders were shut for three months!
    So the net effect being there were fewer than in a normal year? That was sort of my point!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    ydoethur said:

    That was a pretty awesome peak of thunder. Never known the house actually shake before.

    Having got off lightly yesterday (where I could watch the lightning outside after sunset as Wolverhampton got it) I think we’re about to have payback here.

    I'm currently in between two storm cells, so there's thunder in all directions but not in my local area.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    The PM's office? Separate from his private office.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The reason that so many people - like myself and @MaxPB - were so upset about Cummings trip was that he couldn't be arsed to do the decent thing and apologise:

    His policy is never to apologise, for anything.
    I know. That's the policy in the US as well.

    And - frankly - it sucks.

    I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
    Is that setting the bar high or low?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    edited August 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    What's wrong with seeking to make your country great?

    That slogan has become associated with Trump who is malign, but he is malign not because of nationalism but because he is an ignorant, selfish extremist.
    Yes, Ok, the 24 hours are up.

    So it just depends. Nothing wrong with aspiring for great things for the country of which you are a citizen. Prosperity. Peace and harmony. Social justice. Winning the World Cup. All that good stuff.

    The problem arises when the population is invited to identify very intensely with their country in a manner which is loud and brittle and bombastic. With this comes complexes towards others, of either the inferiority or superiority type, with associated tell-tale sentiments such as "getting our country back" and "making it great again". Nostalgic sentimentalism, feeling "special" compared to others, the need to "win", as if international affairs were an egg and spoon race, all of that BAD stuff.

    And in practice I'm afraid that politicians who bang on about making their country great again - and their supporters - usually fall into the 2nd category.

    But there's no general rule for me. It's case by case. You give me a case in point and I'll tell you whether it's healthy or toxic.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
    538's model has it going to Trump.
    And so do I as we speak.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    New thread.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    Has anyone tried to estimate what these huge GDP swings have done to overall GDP rankings?

    eg France must surely have overtaken us.

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    If you had been reading my posts on this stuff the gain would not be surprising, the figures are much better than expected and the headline hides a lot of good news.
    A 20% drop in GDP is "much better than expected"????

    Pray tell. It is, for what it is worth, roughly what I was expecting. A fifth of shops and pubs are shuttered. We've lost a fifth of the economy.

    How bad were you expecting, and why?

    Sincere questions. You're a smart commenter and it's always nice to hear an optimistic take
    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/august-2020-gdp-tracker#.XzP-6B7RbxM

    Sums it up better than I can at the moment. No access to data.
    You can compare easily their various forcasts: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publication-type/niesr-gdp-tracker

    it's quite a big upgrade, which surprises me personally. Today's results were within what I was expecting.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    This thread has

    become a victim of tactical voting.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Parts of the domestic economy are performing well. Other parts less so - with foreign tourism dead how much of the hole are Brits filling by going camping in the UK? I suspect nowhere near all of it. And we know that big town and city centres are significantly quieter than they have been with commercial property price slides clearly there.

    PB Tories shouldn't be too sure about the V-shaped recovery. We aren't remotely out of the covid disaster yet. And we have the national self harm to do at New Year.


    Foreign tourists dont generally come over to the UK and camp or even go to the seaside wheras staycation Brits dont generally come to look at history and museums and culture (especially having to wear a mask to do it) - So they are not replacing like for like at all . I think a large part of the mess of covid -19 lockdown decisions are only starting to emerge (the first one being the A level and GCSE results) - the economy will follow
    Yes I know that was point point. Foreign tourists come here and shower London / Edinburgh / Stratford with dollar. British holiday in the UK tourists are rushing out to buy tents. The loss of revenue in the economy will surely be large, massive in some areas.

    And ministers, a "staycation" is where you stay at home. A holiday in the UK is a holiday. You patronising out of touch fools.
    The meaning of the word has changed. Over here any holiday within a 3 hour drive is defined as a “staycation”
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    What's wrong with seeking to make your country great?

    That slogan has become associated with Trump who is malign, but he is malign not because of nationalism but because he is an ignorant, selfish extremist.
    Yes, Ok, the 24 hours are up.

    So it just depends. Nothing wrong with aspiring for great things for the country of which you are a citizen. Prosperity. Peace and harmony. Social justice. Winning the World Cup. All that good stuff.

    The problem arises when the population is invited to identify very intensely with their country in a manner which is loud and brittle and bombastic. With this comes complexes towards others, of either the inferiority or superiority type, with associated tell-tale sentiments such as "getting our country back" and "making it great again". Nostalgic sentimentalism, feeling "special" compared to others, the need to "win", as if international affairs were an egg and spoon race, all of that BAD stuff.

    And in practice I'm afraid that politicians who bang on about making their country great again - and their supporters - usually fall into the 2nd category.

    But there's no general rule for me. It's case by case. You give me a case in point and I'll tell you whether it's healthy or toxic.
    As to the toxicity of those that always want to tell us how intolerant, xenophobic, idle, racist, bigotted, insignificant etc I could go on. Oh that is people like you and your tribe mainly isn't it. I think you need to go take a good look at your fellow travellers before attacking others for believing that this country isn't such a bad place and we will do just fine outside the eu.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Sandpit said:
    It's "Marie" in the story, though.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Are you opposed to, say, Tibetan nationalism, or that of any of the countries of the USSR that weren't Russia? Is it wrong that Norway and Poland are countries? It seems to broad a category of things to be monolithically for or against.
    I agree you can't have iron rules on this. Case by case - but in general I'm more likely to be favourable to nationalist movements seeking to establish a new sovereign country than those seeking to radically change a country that is already established. That's the distinction I'm drawing. Not hard and fast but don't you think it's a meaningful distinction?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
    It's very difficult for anyone to make a judgement about how benign something is when they're in the inside group. I've experienced plenty of anti-English 'racism' whilst I've been here (as well as of course some of the most polite and charming people I've ever met). I'm not going to cry into my soup about it, but I'm not going to label it as somehow heroic either.
    Lucky, exceedingly poor and sorry to hear that , to say the least, that you have suffered any anti-English racism. We certainly are not moron free for certain , but vast majority would have no truck with it, I certainly would not.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:



    The problem is we are not in control of our own destiny, we rely on crumbs from England as they choose what we get and where we have to spend most of the pittance they send back to us.

    Dont generalise your assertion was scottish pupils were disadvantaged vs english ones.

    I asserted its your own fault as education is devolved and showed your funding excuse to be pure poppycock.

    Everything about education except funding is a devolved matter. Given you get given higher per pupil funding that english pupils then if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged it must be down to Holyrood.

    The fact instead you try to ramble proves you have no argument here. I support scottish independence but crying "Its the english" every time someone highlights an issue might just possibly be the fault of holyrood stops you scots actually trying to sort that issue out
    It's why I would be very happy to see Scotland leave. The reality would be fascinating to watch as the SNP tore itself apart.
    I think the SNP would either rebrand or dissolve after independence.

    To be "nationalist" once sovereignty is achieved is no longer a good look.
    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
    Ah benign Scotland.

    SO benign, in fact, that it needs draconian hate speech laws far in excess of England to curb 'stirring up hatred'.
    nutters have been let out now
This discussion has been closed.