How depressingly tribal we all are, or at least con voters are. The relentless minimising by con voices on here wasn't great either, and is now shown to have been a waste of breath, though i am sure we'll hear more of it.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
The chosen in the posting system and counting is going to go on for ages, unless it is a landslide. The gerrymandering of constituencies needs sorting too. America is not going to be a great advert for democracy until they get that sorted.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
Do Americans realise that they’re unique in the democratic world for being unable to get election results out within a day or two?
How to overturn the politisisation of the democratic process itself is a more difficult question, when everything is devolved to the individual states, then to counties and cities to actually run the election with no national guidelines.
UK a does a pretty good job without massive investment, just a large hall full of people to count ballot papers and a small group of apolitical boundary commissioners.
So if mocks, adjusted grades or a roll of the dice are used, what on earth is going to be published tommorow? And what are universities to do with the grades that they have been informed of earlier this week? Ignore them or base places on them?
Remember when the pasty tax was considered an omnishambles?
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
America really does seem like it's having a last days of Rome moment during 2020. How this kind of stuff isn't just part of a federal budget with unlimited funds is something I'll never understand. Leaving it up to the states will immediately end up in courts and accusations of dodgy counting etc...
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
Do Americans realise that they’re unique in the democratic world for being unable to get election results out within a day or two?
How to overturn the politisisation of the democratic process itself is a more difficult question, when everything is devolved to the individual states, then to counties and cities to actually run the election with no national guidelines.
UK a does a pretty good job without massive investment, just a large hall full of people to count ballot papers and a small group of apolitical boundary commissioners.
I think the problem is that America has become so polarised and Trump has poisoned the well so badly wrt manual vote counts that if he loses by small margins in a number of states there will be accusations of state officials hiring partisan counters, the same is true on the other side. There just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
It personified the odious creatures running the country, they can do as they wish whilst ordering the plebs about. The fat blob will live to regret supporting his lickspittle sidekick. Both will go down in the records as useless erchies.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The Barnard castle issue was in the press due to the excuse used. But it was the stay in Durham that was the problem.
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
Do Americans realise that they’re unique in the democratic world for being unable to get election results out within a day or two?
How to overturn the politisisation of the democratic process itself is a more difficult question, when everything is devolved to the individual states, then to counties and cities to actually run the election with no national guidelines.
UK a does a pretty good job without massive investment, just a large hall full of people to count ballot papers and a small group of apolitical boundary commissioners.
I think the problem is that America has become so polarised and Trump has poisoned the well so badly wrt manual vote counts that if he loses by small margins in a number of states there will be accusations of state officials hiring partisan counters, the same is true on the other side. There just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
Absolutely, the politicisation of everything has destroyed public trust in the system, with politicians at all levels now openly trying to manipulate the democratic process for their own ends.
I can see a dozen different versions of Bush v Gore across the country in November. Following the next three months of the mud-slinging being turned up to 11, neither side are going to admit they lost unless there's a landslide.
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
But what happens when furlough ends?
Hopefully about 85% of people get back to work and most of that fall in GDP is reversed. The fact that so much of GDP has been recovered when so many are still on furlough is much more surprising to me.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
It was an aggressive media campaign that didn’t care too much about facts in the search for a political scalp
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
But what happens when furlough ends?
Hopefully about 85% of people get back to work and most of that fall in GDP is reversed. The fact that so much of GDP has been recovered when so many are still on furlough is much more surprising to me.
Is it? I think a lot of people who won’t have jobs to back to are still spending like nothing has changed. You’re figure of 85% seems incredibly optimistic to me.
Oh, and winter is coming. I won’t be going to a pub after August.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
It personified the odious creatures running the country, they can do as they wish whilst ordering the plebs about. The fat blob will live to regret supporting his lickspittle sidekick. Both will go down in the records as useless erchies.
That’s not a nice way to refer to Salmond and Sturgeon
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
But what happens when furlough ends?
I think the hope is that by October the economy will be back up to ~93-95% of original size so the reduction will feel more like a traditional recession than armageddon. If that's the case then ending the furlough won't be the end of the world as is currently being declared by the London chattering classes. Especially given that the majority of job losses will be in lower earning industries rather than last time where it was a massacre in high end service jobs and commercial construction.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
Do Americans realise that they’re unique in the democratic world for being unable to get election results out within a day or two?
How to overturn the politisisation of the democratic process itself is a more difficult question, when everything is devolved to the individual states, then to counties and cities to actually run the election with no national guidelines.
UK a does a pretty good job without massive investment, just a large hall full of people to count ballot papers and a small group of apolitical boundary commissioners.
I think the problem is that America has become so polarised and Trump has poisoned the well so badly wrt manual vote counts that if he loses by small margins in a number of states there will be accusations of state officials hiring partisan counters, the same is true on the other side. There just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
And I got a bunch of shit from my left wing friends. But you know what, they were right and I was wrong.
The only thing that matters in a democracy is that you accept the will of the electorate. If you don't accept it, then I don't care how aligned you are with me on tax policy or education or anything else. Ultimately, every thing else is secondary. Because everything else can be fixed at the ballot box.
Presuming, of course, that you believe in the ballot box.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Even now, people are still writing to the Chief Constable, the Police Commissioner and even HM Inspectorate of Constabulary (who normally look at police shootings and deaths in custody) to try and get the investigation re-opened at a cost of tens, possibly even hundreds of thousands of pounds.
If it looks like a witch hunt, and smells like a witch hunt...
In a poll for them but not yet published, the Times, revealed this at 12:01 this morning:
More than two thirds of SNP voters want Nicola Sturgeon to push for an unauthorised independence referendum if the UK government withholds permission from a majority nationalist government. The constitution is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act and the common interpretation of the law is that the UK government must transfer authority to Holyrood to hold a second vote on secession. A poll by YouGov for The Times found that 68 per cent of SNP supporters thought that the Scottish government “should try to hold a vote without those powers” if Boris Johnson refuses to engage even if Ms Sturgeon wins a majority next May.
Our stats adviser(14) did point out that 68% is closer to the the Times’ ‘more than two thirds‘ (66.66666%) than our ‘nearly 70%‘, but I’m going with the new SQA method because I spent my childhood in a tenement, a prefab and a scheme, played on a bing and learned to swim in the Forth and Clyde Canal.
Lefty Remainia will never forgive Cummings for two things:
1. Helping to destroy Remain in 2016.
2. Helping to destroy Labour (and suppressing Lib Dem gains to boot) in 2019.
That's what this is all about. Except of course for their pant-wetting terror of what he'll do to them at the next general election, based on his past form.
As for the bollocks about 'undermining confidence in the government to handle the pandemic specifically', I take it that that's why the post-Cummings lockdown subsequently completely failed to suppress the virus and it is now surging out of control, US-style? Oh wait, that didn't happen, did it?
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
But what happens when furlough ends?
Hopefully about 85% of people get back to work and most of that fall in GDP is reversed. The fact that so much of GDP has been recovered when so many are still on furlough is much more surprising to me.
Is it? I think a lot of people who won’t have jobs to back to are still spending like nothing has changed. You’re figure of 85% seems incredibly optimistic to me.
Oh, and winter is coming. I won’t be going to a pub after August.
The more they spend the fewer jobs will be lost. I think estimates at the moment suggest something like 750k jobs gone which makes the reduction of 250k EU workers really quite significant.
What the pandemic has clearly done is greatly accelerate some pre-existing trends in things like retail and home working. It will devastate the airline industry, travel generally and a lot of hospitality despite some imaginative ideas from the government. Whether there will be more profound changes remains to be seen but it is hard to imagine the old commute returning to its former "glory".
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
What The Actual Fuck. If you don't like the results that our already discredited algorithm gives you we'll let you pick your mock exams? Aside from the utter stupidity of this a lot of courses aren't primarily based on exams so what use is a mock result that may not even have been sat where half the work is practical?
Perhaps the sacked liar should just hand A-Level students some crayons so that they can doodle what qualifications they want on some scrap paper. I'm sure that would suffice. Vote Conservative.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
But what happens when furlough ends?
I think the hope is that by October the economy will be back up to ~93-95% of original size so the reduction will feel more like a traditional recession than armageddon. If that's the case then ending the furlough won't be the end of the world as is currently being declared by the London chattering classes. Especially given that the majority of job losses will be in lower earning industries rather than last time where it was a massacre in high end service jobs and commercial construction.
The recession is also going to be very London-centred, which means that the reporting of Armageddon is not going to match the experiences of those outside the city.
Upwards revision for May as well with early reports from businesses too cautious compared to actual results, I think that bodes well for June and July to be upwardly revised in due course.
The UK PMIs are no worse than most other European countries, and will probably be better than the US in July and August, so that seems like an eminently reasonably prediction.
I've got total economy size by October at 94%, but I think that final 6 points is going to take a year to recover with a vaccine and over two years without one and the recovery will be in different sectors compared to the pre-virus economy, especially in the no vaccine timeline.
In an odd quirk of statistics the economy dropped by 20.4% in Q2 but overall it is now just 17.2% smaller than the February pre-virus peak. The 17.2% figure is a better gauge of where we are today than the 20.4%, I'd also guess that we're close to around a 9% drop at this point in time once July and MTD for August is taken into account.
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
But what happens when furlough ends?
I think the hope is that by October the economy will be back up to ~93-95% of original size so the reduction will feel more like a traditional recession than armageddon. If that's the case then ending the furlough won't be the end of the world as is currently being declared by the London chattering classes. Especially given that the majority of job losses will be in lower earning industries rather than last time where it was a massacre in high end service jobs and commercial construction.
A few anecdotal points regarding the economy
1. Had a drive round my local area last night, all the pubs/restaurant car parks were jam packed, the eat out to help out thing has really worked.
2. My childhood home (we moved out in 1984) was put on the market last week for what I thought was 20% too much. it sold for full asking price in 2 days.
3. Agencies are currently struggling to find skilled construction labour in Hampshire
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
I think the problem is that [in] America...there just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
The British counting system relies on "volunteers" only in the sense that those counting aren't forced to do the job. The counters are all paid - well enough in most cases to choose working from 7 am on polling day till 5 or 6 am the following morning over doing their normal job.
In fact, the British system is built on lack of trust. We can be reasonably confident the result reflects true voter preference because those paid counters are scrutinised throughout the night by a small army of unpaid political activist volunteers: partly motivated by a determination not to let the other side get a vote that wasn't intended - but also by the realisation of the value in the information the process throws up about where the votes are coming from.
What's staggering about the US system is the national tolerance of sloppiness and chaos.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
I don't think that the charts show that at all. I don't approve of what he did so I would be in the red on those questions but I don't think he had to resign. Whether he retained the confidence of the PM is a matter for the PM. The media hysteria and hatred of remainers was just embarrassing.
-20.4% GDP in Q2, but +8.7% in June and a predicted +8% in July going by the indices.
Recovery looking pretty V shaped at the moment.
Our economic damage appears worse than for most of our comparators, just as the medical statistics have been.
Tbh, I don't think so. If you look at total economy size vs peak it's about the same just a few weeks later. If the pandemic had started three weeks earlier in the UK the damage would have been evenly split over Q1 and Q2 making the figures not look as bad but if you look at the monthly breakdowns the drop and recoveries across Europe all look quite similar, the UK had a slightly deeper drop but it is also having a slightly faster recovery, +8.7% in June and +8% in July is a very solid recovery to build on in August.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
It was an aggressive media campaign that didn’t care too much about facts in the search for a political scalp
Surprised you support the toffs against the plebs Charles.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
I don't think that the charts show that at all. I don't approve of what he did so I would be in the red on those questions but I don't think he had to resign. Whether he retained the confidence of the PM is a matter for the PM. The media hysteria and hatred of remainers was just embarrassing.
Yes the hatred of remainers by leavers is embarrassing in the extreme.
I think the problem is that [in] America...there just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
The British counting system relies on "volunteers" only in the sense that those counting aren't forced to do the job. The counters are all paid - well enough in most cases to choose working from 7 am on polling day till 5 or 6 am the following morning over doing their normal job.
In fact, the British system is built on lack of trust. We can be reasonably confident the result reflects true voter preference because those paid counters are scrutinised throughout the night by a small army of unpaid political activist volunteers: partly motivated by a determination not to let the other side get a vote that wasn't intended - but also by the realisation of the value in the information the process throws up about where the votes are coming from.
What's staggering about the US system is the national tolerance of sloppiness and chaos.
Particularly given the US’s usual obsession with perfection
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
It was an aggressive media campaign that didn’t care too much about facts in the search for a political scalp
Surprised you support the toffs against the plebs Charles.
I’m not supporting Rothermere. Nasty piece of work, just like his paper
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
Mike's pie charts suggest in the court of public opinion Durham Police were wrong.
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
Ah well, Kamala was the only one I wasn't green on, not too big of loss though.
Perhaps what clinched it was the BLM protests. A Black woman, but no de funder of police or radical socialist.
She’s our local Senator. As effective as a chocolate teapot.
My wife has just announced that she’d rather vote for Hillary than Kamala (and given her history with Hillary that’s quite a thing).
She’s probably going to write in Jeb Bush as a strange sort of protest...
I don't think Biden will be sweating on the result in California, albeit the votes may not have been counted in time for January.
California will nevertheless bring in a lot of $ for the campaign.
Sure, which is why Hilary spent a lot of time there rather than in those rather dull rust bucket states that....cost her the election. Will the money be greater because there is a Californian senator on the ticket? I doubt it, Trump motivates his opponents every bit as much as he does his base.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The Barnard castle issue was in the press due to the excuse used. But it was the stay in Durham that was the problem.
One rule for the Westminster elite and another for us plebs is inevitably corrosive of confidence.
Not that we expect anything different from this government of chancers.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Cummings didn't break quarantine, the Police investigated that and cleared him of that. All that was left was the Barnard Castle trip.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
It personified the odious creatures running the country, they can do as they wish whilst ordering the plebs about. The fat blob will live to regret supporting his lickspittle sidekick. Both will go down in the records as useless erchies.
That’s not a nice way to refer to Salmond and Sturgeon
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
I think the problem is that [in] America...there just isn't enough trust left for a system like ours where faceless volunteers are trusted to deliver an accurate count.
The British counting system relies on "volunteers" only in the sense that those counting aren't forced to do the job. The counters are all paid - well enough in most cases to choose working from 7 am on polling day till 5 or 6 am the following morning over doing their normal job.
In fact, the British system is built on lack of trust. We can be reasonably confident the result reflects true voter preference because those paid counters are scrutinised throughout the night by a small army of unpaid political activist volunteers: partly motivated by a determination not to let the other side get a vote that wasn't intended - but also by the realisation of the value in the information the process throws up about where the votes are coming from.
What's staggering about the US system is the national tolerance of sloppiness and chaos.
Particularly given the US’s usual obsession with perfection
The whole American political system is a shambles. I suspect that Americans don't realise how much better pretty well everywhere, apart from places which don't actually have elections, is.
And good morning everyone. Not as sticky here this morning. So far, anyway.
Ah well, Kamala was the only one I wasn't green on, not too big of loss though.
Perhaps what clinched it was the BLM protests. A Black woman, but no de funder of police or radical socialist.
She’s our local Senator. As effective as a chocolate teapot.
My wife has just announced that she’d rather vote for Hillary than Kamala (and given her history with Hillary that’s quite a thing).
She’s probably going to write in Jeb Bush as a strange sort of protest...
I don't think Biden will be sweating on the result in California, albeit the votes may not have been counted in time for January.
California will nevertheless bring in a lot of $ for the campaign.
Sure, which is why Hilary spent a lot of time there rather than in those rather dull rust bucket states that....cost her the election. Will the money be greater because there is a Californian senator on the ticket? I doubt it, Trump motivates his opponents every bit as much as he does his base.
Tbh, if the decision to get a California Dem on the ticket was made for fundraising reasons then they are in big trouble.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
Mike's pie charts suggest in the court of public opinion Durham Police were wrong.
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
I wonder if Steve Kinnock was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations of Kinnocks to walk nearly 800 yards , 800 YARDS i tell you, to hog a great big cake to leave on the steps of his ancestors before playing around with other peoples deckchairs ordering taxis .
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
Because mocks are not standardized across schools, there is no externally moderation, you don’t know if the questions were spoon fed and there is no standardized marking system but apart from that they are fine.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
I don't think that the charts show that at all. I don't approve of what he did so I would be in the red on those questions but I don't think he had to resign. Whether he retained the confidence of the PM is a matter for the PM. The media hysteria and hatred of remainers was just embarrassing.
What has it got to do with Remainers?
If it transpires that Starmer has breached lockdown in the same way as Cummings, I would demand his head too. The trouble is Starmer would now have the shield of Cummings to hide behind.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
Because mocks are not standardized across schools, there is no externally moderation, you don’t know if the questions were spoon fed and there is no standardized marking system but apart from that they are fine.
Which is why in normal years you have standardised, externally moderated exams but that hasn't happened this year. So don't use it normally but for this year it seems better than the alternative.
There hasn't been a standardised, externally moderated exam this year so saying that the mocks weren't is irrelevant: nor were anything else.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It was the only option to head off the disaster, given that the results were already in the envelopes. It's a day of sarcastic headlines but then the negatives pretty much stop. No endless stories of injustice and blighted futures for little Wayne etc.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
Because mocks are not standardized across schools, there is no externally moderation, you don’t know if the questions were spoon fed and there is no standardized marking system but apart from that they are fine.
Neither is teacher assessment.
Cancelling the exams was such a terrible idea. The government massively jumped the gun on it and now the kids are paying the price. If they had held firm and said they were aiming for a summer sitting and just allowed for grades being worse due to the teaching being a bit dodgy in the spring/summer term.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
I think they could have easily done A-levels in July or August and delayed university starts to October in order to accommodate marking.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
I also think the Chancellor will extend the eat out scheme for September if the weather is good, it's a cheap way to support the industry vs furlough IMO.
It seems to me like that is an excellent idea, considering the devastation that the virus has done to the industry.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
I am boycotting a particular establishment near where I work. It is a place that in the height of summer turns over 40 grand a day. They have not discounted to customers, but my understanding is they are part of the scheme !?
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Hmmmmm. Correlation does not equal causation. I very much doubt the Cummings incident helped Johnson but there are other reasons why his ratings might have fallen.
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Also, there were other possible options between “do nothing” and “sack him”.
Not to the media mob there wasn’t. They’d decided long ago that he was a witch, and nothing short of burning at the stake was going to be acceptable.
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
The punishment for breaking quarantine, which Cummings did, is £1000.
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
Even now, people are still writing to the Chief Constable, the Police Commissioner and even HM Inspectorate of Constabulary (who normally look at police shootings and deaths in custody) to try and get the investigation re-opened at a cost of tens, possibly even hundreds of thousands of pounds.
If it looks like a witch hunt, and smells like a witch hunt...
Not really. There’s no doubt about who or what Cummings is, and people are just pissed off with him.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
Mike's pie charts suggest in the court of public opinion Durham Police were wrong.
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
I wonder if Steve Kinnock was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations of Kinnocks to walk nearly 800 yards , 800 YARDS i tell you, to hog a great big cake to leave on the steps of his ancestors before playing around with other peoples deckchairs ordering taxis .
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
It's easy to criticise the government on this, but at least a decision and way forward has been made before the results are out - unlike in other places.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
What was wrong with Plan A - have the teachers grade their students. Based on all the work submitted. Based on their knowledge of the student. As opposed to the utter farce we have before us because Tories hate Teachers apparently. You're all trots, can't be trusted.
Its part of a "triple lock" so teachers grades are the primary input, the mocks a secondary one and actual exams a tertiary one.
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
Incorrect. Plan A was the teacher uses coursework exams and knowledge to assign a grade. Then they planned to rinse that through an algorithm so that bright kids in poor areas get downgrades (know your station plebs). Now the offer is "mock exams". Thats only a part of what has been assessed, and on so many courses misses all of the practical work that is inherent in the qualification.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.
Appalling weather here overnight with huge amounts of thunder, lightning and rain. Our power went off at some point stymying the alarm clock.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
It wasn't an hysterical over reaction. Mike"s pie charts demonstrate that
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
Durham police said there was no breach of regulation 6.
Mike's pie charts suggest in the court of public opinion Durham Police were wrong.
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
I wonder if Steve Kinnock was the first Kinnock in a thousand generations of Kinnocks to walk nearly 800 yards , 800 YARDS i tell you, to hog a great big cake to leave on the steps of his ancestors before playing around with other peoples deckchairs ordering taxis .
Comments
Ministers bid to quell revolt over England A-levels by allowing mock exam results
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/11/keir-starmer-england-must-alter-course-on-a-level-grades
The disaster in care homes, shaking hands with everyone, an apparent sense of a u-turn on policy, a lack of clarity on advice to the public. He just doesn't seem like a PM for the crisis. So maybe it was all Cummings, maybe not. I can't help but feel you WANT it to be about Cummings.
You also have to factor in Starmer being an entirely new leader.
Too bloody warm. Suspect today will be unpleasant, and about as productive as a baked potato.
On the plus side, I think I'm going to win my first Stellaris victory this week. Enormous game.
Perhaps what clinched it was the BLM protests. A Black woman, but no de funder of police or radical socialist.
More than a month after New York's June 23 primary elections, state election officials are still counting votes. In some legislative districts, they haven't even started counting absentee votes. In the best-case scenario, election officials hope to declare winners by the first Tuesday in August -- six weeks after Election Day. It might take a lot longer than that. Election officials in New York City have already invalidated upwards of 100,000 absentee ballots -- about one of every five that were mailed in from the five boroughs. And furious candidates are already filing lawsuits charging discrimination and disenfranchisement.
The chaos in New York is a warning about November's elections: Voting is being transformed by the pandemic. But no state has built new election infrastructure. No state has the time or the money to make sure vote-counting will go smoothly in November. And just about every state is about to be hit with a massive surge of absentee ballots.
How to overturn the politisisation of the democratic process itself is a more difficult question, when everything is devolved to the individual states, then to counties and cities to actually run the election with no national guidelines.
UK a does a pretty good job without massive investment, just a large hall full of people to count ballot papers and a small group of apolitical boundary commissioners.
Remember when the pasty tax was considered an omnishambles?
The fact that they blew up the story as big as they did was probably a factor in the PM standing by him. Remember that we are talking about an ‘offence’ for which the legal punishment would have been an £80 fine, same as a parking ticket.
Recovery looking pretty V shaped at the moment.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/gcse-a-level-students-able-to-keep-better-mock-grades-exams-gavin-williamson-a4522346.html
Do not confuse it with the Barnard Castle trip, which was essentially a traffic offence (and don’t forget, because he admitted he didn’t know whether he was fit to drive he could have had penalty points for that too).
Overall this is much less of a disaster than I expected.
Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his father’s premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to “stay at home”.)
(...)
Durham Constabulary have examined the circumstances surrounding the journey to Barnard Castle (including ANPR, witness evidence and a review of Mr Cummings’ press conference on 25 May 2020) and have concluded that there might have been a minor breach of the Regulations that would have warranted police intervention. Durham Constabulary view this as minor because there was no apparent breach of social distancing.
On topic the hysterical over reaction to Cummings stupidity was evidence that our disdain for American partisanship poisoning the well is, well, naïve at best.
I can see a dozen different versions of Bush v Gore across the country in November. Following the next three months of the mud-slinging being turned up to 11, neither side are going to admit they lost unless there's a landslide.
My wife has just announced that she’d rather vote for Hillary than Kamala (and given her history with Hillary that’s quite a thing).
She’s probably going to write in Jeb Bush as a strange sort of protest...
Support for independence 53% (+2%)
Support for the SNP: 57% (+3%)
Nicola Sturgeon approval rating: +50 (+45)
Oh, and winter is coming. I won’t be going to a pub after August.
Four years ago I posted this article to my Facebook: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/calm-down-well-be-fine-no-matter-who-wins/2016/11/04/e5ca3c32-a2d3-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html
And I got a bunch of shit from my left wing friends. But you know what, they were right and I was wrong.
The only thing that matters in a democracy is that you accept the will of the electorate. If you don't accept it, then I don't care how aligned you are with me on tax policy or education or anything else. Ultimately, every thing else is secondary. Because everything else can be fixed at the ballot box.
Presuming, of course, that you believe in the ballot box.
The Ferguson and Calderwood issues went away quickly because they resigned. Cummings is still in post, as is Jenrick. Neither apologised, which looks like they feel they have nothing to apologise for, due to their superiority.
If it looks like a witch hunt, and smells like a witch hunt...
More than two thirds of SNP voters want Nicola Sturgeon to push for an unauthorised independence referendum if the UK government withholds permission from a majority nationalist government. The constitution is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act and the common interpretation of the law is that the UK government must transfer authority to Holyrood to hold a second vote on secession. A poll by YouGov for The Times found that 68 per cent of SNP supporters thought that the Scottish government “should try to hold a vote without those powers” if Boris Johnson refuses to engage even if Ms Sturgeon wins a majority next May.
Our stats adviser(14) did point out that 68% is closer to the the Times’ ‘more than two thirds‘ (66.66666%) than our ‘nearly 70%‘, but I’m going with the new SQA method because I spent my childhood in a tenement, a prefab and a scheme, played on a bing and learned to swim in the Forth and Clyde Canal.
I'm no fan, but she's no idiot, and certainly no "defund the police" loony
1. Helping to destroy Remain in 2016.
2. Helping to destroy Labour (and suppressing Lib Dem gains to boot) in 2019.
That's what this is all about. Except of course for their pant-wetting terror of what he'll do to them at the next general election, based on his past form.
As for the bollocks about 'undermining confidence in the government to handle the pandemic specifically', I take it that that's why the post-Cummings lockdown subsequently completely failed to suppress the virus and it is now surging out of control, US-style? Oh wait, that didn't happen, did it?
What the pandemic has clearly done is greatly accelerate some pre-existing trends in things like retail and home working. It will devastate the airline industry, travel generally and a lot of hospitality despite some imaginative ideas from the government. Whether there will be more profound changes remains to be seen but it is hard to imagine the old commute returning to its former "glory".
Perhaps the sacked liar should just hand A-Level students some crayons so that they can doodle what qualifications they want on some scrap paper. I'm sure that would suffice. Vote Conservative.
1. Had a drive round my local area last night, all the pubs/restaurant car parks were jam packed, the eat out to help out thing has really worked.
2. My childhood home (we moved out in 1984) was put on the market last week for what I thought was 20% too much. it sold for full asking price in 2 days.
3. Agencies are currently struggling to find skilled construction labour in Hampshire
Anecdotal evidence hint that lesser mortals were cautioned elsewhere for similar indiscretions. South Wales Police felt the need to admonish Steve Kinnock for walking half a mile to his parents home in London, where he left a birthday cake on the doorstep before retreating 10 metres to sit on deckchairs, conversing whilst socially distancing.
Not that we expect anything different from this government of chancers.
If a student got an A in their mocks but their grade after "adjustments" is claimed to be a C, how is it unreasonable or unfair for them to be able to say "no, I deserve an A like I got in my mocks"?
And good morning everyone. Not as sticky here this morning. So far, anyway.
If it were up to me I'd extend it to November. Not December as hopefully by then Christmas bookings will be picking up - if Christmas Parties aren't permitted this year then that will be devastating.
If it transpires that Starmer has breached lockdown in the same way as Cummings, I would demand his head too. The trouble is Starmer would now have the shield of Cummings to hide behind.
There hasn't been a standardised, externally moderated exam this year so saying that the mocks weren't is irrelevant: nor were anything else.
Cancelling the exams was such a terrible idea. The government massively jumped the gun on it and now the kids are paying the price. If they had held firm and said they were aiming for a summer sitting and just allowed for grades being worse due to the teaching being a bit dodgy in the spring/summer term.
Once the exams were cancelled, the situation was inevitable. I'm not sure it was possible for them to go ahead given the timing.
It could certainly be argued that the exams going ahead would have disadvantaged poorer pupils and state comprehensive schools, who didn't have the resources to operate virtually during the lockdown period.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1293431830952267776
Later today on my way to an appointment in Cardiff I will enjoy a McDonalds sausage and egg Mcmuffin meal for £1.75. So the scheme is a bad idea. A coronary financed by the government and a breakfast I would have indulged in for full price at my own expense. Is the scheme really meant to benefit fast food franchises?
Teacher grading hasn't gone away.
There’s no doubt about who or what Cummings is, and people are just pissed off with him.
Its rampant panicked bollocks from a government who fundamentally distrusts the teaching profession and a man who has no idea what day it is never mind what lie he's told in it. But its ok, its only education, it doesn't matter.