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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Nigelb said:

    Navarro is almost as much of an arse as Trump.

    https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1280660764383227906

    Madness. Why aren't the pushing the treatments that actually, you know, work?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    I don't even know who the shadow chancellor is... hardly heard a peep.
    Anneliese Dodds - or according to @HYUFD - "Gordon Brown in a skirt".
    Has Brown ever been seen in a kilt?
    Why should he? He's a Lowlander and son of the Manse. He certainly didn't wear one when he married - the only time many a Scot wears one.

    I rather doubt it, for he always refused to be called Scottish, at least when he was PM - IIRC he only admitted it once, to an American radio show host. "British" was preferred.
    Broon in a kilt.

    Now that thought has spoilt my afternoon lunch. The most unsuitable combination since Ernie Wise and his toupee.

    The nearest I can think of is Ed Balls in a football kit. Until I spotted one in a leotard...

    image
    EASY! EASY!
  • This 2-4-1 thing sounds incredible. I love eating out, so this makes it much cheaper. Nice one from wor Rishi.

    Is it max £10 per head?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I get 50% off meals with my car insurance, I really am not convinced this will do anything to stimulate demand but as always, hope I am wrong

    Is that a one-time thing, or can you do it for every meal?
    Every meal for a year and then when you renew you get it all over again.

    I also get 2 for 1 at the cinema, it’s genuinely a really good deal.

    I am not using either now as I won’t take the risk.
    Sounds like the old Orange promotion for the cinema. Still, not everyone has paid for that scheme so it should promote some demand.
    I think Meerkat took over from Orange.
    I have an Unlimited card and on a Tuesday or Wednesday with Merrkat me and Mrs BJ can go to Cineworld for 40p for both of us
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    On that one I agree with you and I said so at the time, the Benn Act was terrible politics. Really played into Boris's hands, Labour were trying to be too clever by half and were completely outfoxed.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    edited July 2020

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I get 50% off meals with my car insurance, I really am not convinced this will do anItything to stimulate demand but as always, hope I am wrong

    Is that a one-time thing, or can you do it for every meal?
    Every meal for a year and then when you renew you get it all over again.

    I also get 2 for 1 at the cinema, it’s genuinely a really good deal.

    I am not using either now as I won’t take the risk.
    Sounds like the old Orange promotion for the cinema. Still, not everyone has paid for that scheme so it should promote some demand.
    I think Meerkat took over from Orange.
    I have an Unlimited card and on a Tuesday or Wednesday with Merrkat me and Mrs BJ can go to Cineworld for 40p for both of us
    It will make it easier for people too lazy to leverage voucher codes :smiley:

    And i guess Cedric from Wales can use it to cross-subsidise overpriced expensive wine.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Navarro is almost as much of an arse as Trump.

    https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1280660764383227906

    Madness. Why aren't the pushing the treatments that actually, you know, work?
    They don't have stock in the companies that manufacture those?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    These people cancelling Jodie Comer.....wait until they find out who Clement Attlee married.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I get 50% off meals with my car insurance, I really am not convinced this will do anything to stimulate demand but as always, hope I am wrong

    Is that a one-time thing, or can you do it for every meal?
    Every meal for a year and then when you renew you get it all over again.

    I also get 2 for 1 at the cinema, it’s genuinely a really good deal.

    I am not using either now as I won’t take the risk.
    Sounds like the old Orange promotion for the cinema. Still, not everyone has paid for that scheme so it should promote some demand.
    I think Meerkat took over from Orange.
    I have an Unlimited card and on a Tuesday or Wednesday with Merrkat me and Mrs BJ can go to Cineworld for 40p for both of us
    How much does the Unlimited card cost?

    There's no Cineworld around here I don't think, just an Odeon. Never considered looking at the offers like that or thought they would combine - normally one offer excludes other offers.
  • Corbyn should have stepped down, Starmer should have taken over as temporary leader and it’s possible a VONC might have been won on that basis.

    The mistake was the GE, in hindsight of course.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Navarro is almost as much of an arse as Trump.

    https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1280660764383227906

    Madness. Why aren't the pushing the treatments that actually, you know, work?
    The only valid trial so far as I am aware (use of HCQ in combination with zinc), did show it a modest improvement in outcomes if administered at an early stage, which is what this organisation wants to do. So not sure why this request is considered outlandish.
  • coachcoach Posts: 250
    The crucial part of private education is people respect what they pay for and take for granted anything that's free. Its a big reason Asians do so well
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    This 2-4-1 thing sounds incredible. I love eating out, so this makes it much cheaper. Nice one from wor Rishi.

    There's a limit of 10 quid a head though? so forty quid for four people. which is equal to a discount of twenty quid on a night out. Is that righ

  • This 2-4-1 thing sounds incredible. I love eating out, so this makes it much cheaper. Nice one from wor Rishi.

    There's a limit of 10 quid a head though? so forty quid for four people. which is equal to a discount of twenty quid on a night out. Is that righ

    That’s my understanding
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    On that one I agree with you and I said so at the time, the Benn Act was terrible politics. Really played into Boris's hands, Labour were trying to be too clever by half and were completely outfoxed.
    Even more true of the LDs and ChangeUK MPs who ought to have supported Ken Clarke's option at the time of the Indicative Vote in Spring last year. They gambled and lost everything.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
  • justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    On that one I agree with you and I said so at the time, the Benn Act was terrible politics. Really played into Boris's hands, Labour were trying to be too clever by half and were completely outfoxed.
    Even more true of the LDs and ChangeUK MPs who ought to have supported Ken Clarke's option at the time of the Indicative Vote in Spring last year. They gambled and lost everything.
    I always thought it was odd to vote against them. They could have voted for all of them.
  • Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    Hold on the SNP were responsible
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited July 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    Why then, not advocate destroying the excessively successful *state* schools. The effect they have on life outcome is just as extreme, in many cases.
    The goal is schools of a high and similar standard for everyone with no fees.
    So you would need to destroy all non-bog-standard-comprehensives.

    Then what do you do about the comprehensives that have private school levels of success? Destroy them as well?
    The objective is to "destroy" - as in materially reduce - inequality of opportunity. A drastic reduction in usage of private schools is a necessary but far from sufficient step towards this. Much else is required. The very phrase "bog standard comprehensives" needs to become meaningless. We will simply have schools. Good schools. You're framing things in a slanted defeatist way that presupposes either (i) the objective is to reduce everything to the deeply mediocre or (ii) that the practical effect of reducing inequalities will be to do that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    Hold on the SNP were responsible
    I`m not sure whether Swinson talked SNP into it or vice versa.

    My recollection is that Swinson had her head turned by Chuka Umunna: "go for GE, LDs will end up with 60+ seats".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Scott_xP said:
    Have we seen the details? There are separate rates for second home owners, so it wouldn't be surprising if the holiday only applied to single home owners.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited July 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    What's the saving for non Landlords and second home owners? Is it the same?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    Hold on the SNP were responsible
    I`m not sure whether Swinson talked SNP into it or vice versa.

    My recollection is that Swinson had her head turned by Chuka Umunna: "go for GE, LDs will end up with 60+ seats".
    That turned out so well for both of them!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Yeah, there's no nil rate band for people who already own a home.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    Why then, not advocate destroying the excessively successful *state* schools. The effect they have on life outcome is just as extreme, in many cases.
    The goal is schools of a high and similar standard for everyone with no fees.
    So you would need to destroy all non-bog-standard-comprehensives.

    Then what do you do about the comprehensives that have private school levels of success? Destroy them as well?
    The objective is to "destroy" - as in materially reduce - inequality of opportunity. A drastic reduction in usage of private schools is a necessary but far from sufficient step towards this. Much else is required. The very phrase "bog standard comprehensives" needs to become meaningless. We will simply have schools. Good schools. You're framing things in a slanted defeatist way that presupposes either (i) the objective is to reduce everything to the deeply mediocre or (ii) that the practical effect of reducing inequalities will be to do that.
    If you had any experience of comprehensive schools, you would see that the variations are extreme.

    Hence catchment areas being a major driver in house prices.
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    Hold on the SNP were responsible
    I`m not sure whether Swinson talked SNP into it or vice versa.

    My recollection is that Swinson had her head turned by Chuka Umunna: "go for GE, LDs will end up with 60+ seats".
    Fair enough.
  • I would ideally get rid of private schools as I would the royal family but I accept it’s deeply unpopular and not something I will push for ever.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    Scott_xP said:
    Slightly mischevious on the "up to 8%". It's banded.

    But since the aim is to get the whole market moving .... logical.

    I doubt its enough to make London an attractive investment without a big price fall, however.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Kind of assumes the 12 percent of Sanders backers didnt become Trumpian republicans so not involved in the 2020 Democratic primaries. Some will have done, hopefully not too many.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    But on your comparison let's remember that Johnson had his backstop of public anger over Remainer delay building up and up, ready to explode in a GE. So could that not work for him here too - albeit with no GE - i.e if the public start to get mad at the teachers rather than the government about schools not getting back to normal?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited July 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    Why then, not advocate destroying the excessively successful *state* schools. The effect they have on life outcome is just as extreme, in many cases.
    The goal is schools of a high and similar standard for everyone with no fees.
    So you would need to destroy all non-bog-standard-comprehensives.

    Then what do you do about the comprehensives that have private school levels of success? Destroy them as well?
    The objective is to "destroy" - as in materially reduce - inequality of opportunity. A drastic reduction in usage of private schools is a necessary but far from sufficient step towards this. Much else is required. The very phrase "bog standard comprehensives" needs to become meaningless. We will simply have schools. Good schools. You're framing things in a slanted defeatist way that presupposes either (i) the objective is to reduce everything to the deeply mediocre or (ii) that the practical effect of reducing inequalities will be to do that.
    If you had any experience of comprehensive schools, you would see that the variations are extreme.

    Hence catchment areas being a major driver in house prices.
    One possible way to level up would be increased funding for and open more large 6th form colleges. Done right they can transfer the prospects of kids from the less good feeder schools.

    There are serious economies of scale, the possibility of offering a much wider choice of A Level choices, as you have fewer sub optimal class sizes, and the ability to recruit specialist subject teachers.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    But on your comparison let's remember that Johnson had his backstop of public anger over Remainer delay building up and up, ready to explode in a GE. So could that not work for him here too - albeit with no GE - i.e if the public start to get mad at the teachers rather than the government about schools not getting back to normal?
    Maybe, but I`m not sure. There are at least four actors here: the teachers, the teachers` unions, the Labour Party and the Media. Unpredictable, I`d say. I`m concerned about September.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    On that one I agree with you and I said so at the time, the Benn Act was terrible politics. Really played into Boris's hands, Labour were trying to be too clever by half and were completely outfoxed.
    What's happened to the "Johnsons" from you? It's been wall-to-wall B word ever since you announced with quite some fanfare that you liked to use both.

    Hope you're not trying to be perverse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".
    A 70% effective vaccine won't see the light of day.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    Biden underperforming compared to the generic ballot in the Yougov poll today.

    It's Biden 49 - 40 Trump
    And
    Democrats 51 - 40 Republicans
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    Why then, not advocate destroying the excessively successful *state* schools. The effect they have on life outcome is just as extreme, in many cases.
    The goal is schools of a high and similar standard for everyone with no fees.
    So you would need to destroy all non-bog-standard-comprehensives.

    Then what do you do about the comprehensives that have private school levels of success? Destroy them as well?
    The objective is to "destroy" - as in materially reduce - inequality of opportunity. A drastic reduction in usage of private schools is a necessary but far from sufficient step towards this. Much else is required. The very phrase "bog standard comprehensives" needs to become meaningless. We will simply have schools. Good schools. You're framing things in a slanted defeatist way that presupposes either (i) the objective is to reduce everything to the deeply mediocre or (ii) that the practical effect of reducing inequalities will be to do that.
    If you had any experience of comprehensive schools, you would see that the variations are extreme.

    Hence catchment areas being a major driver in house prices.
    One possible way to level up would be increased funding for and open more large 6th form colleges. Done rights they can transfer the prospects of kids from the less good feeder schools.

    There are serious economies of scale, the possibility of offering a much wider choice of A Level choices, as you have fewer sub optimal class sizes, and the ability to recruit specialist subject teachers.
    Comically, when the local Free School actually started pulling in middle class parents, the complaint was that it is less diverse.

    Because the diversity measure used is Free School Meals.

    The fact that the middle class parents locally tend to be very diverse* is apparently irrelevant.

    *This is London. Most couple seem to be of different ethnic origins, to each other.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    An excellent demonstration of Twitter being a bad representative sample. Basically every Sanders supporter in my Twitter feed that turns up is threatening to vote for Trump or some such.

    Comforting to know they are a tiny proportion in reality.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited July 2020
    coach said:

    The crucial part of private education is people respect what they pay for and take for granted anything that's free. Its a big reason Asians do so well

    Asian have a tendency to take things for granted if they're free?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    That's not convincing.

    In my experience the State System crushes diversity. I have a child in my own extended family for whom the state was unable to cater, and whom they could not protect from bullying.

    And also sometimes equality of opportunity. The parents had to use a specialist independent school in order to get what you call equality of opporunity, involving holiday money spent on education and all the rest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    England lose their first wicket. Haven't scored their first run either.

    Wasn't cricket this year supposed to be different?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    Quite enjoyed this from Hugo on the latest progressivist faceplant.

    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1280792164692353025
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    On that one I agree with you and I said so at the time, the Benn Act was terrible politics. Really played into Boris's hands, Labour were trying to be too clever by half and were completely outfoxed.
    What's happened to the "Johnsons" from you? It's been wall-to-wall B word ever since you announced with quite some fanfare that you liked to use both.

    Hope you're not trying to be perverse.
    I suspect he is trying to rile you.

    (Something that I`d never do.)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".
    A 70% effective vaccine won't see the light of day.
    I just plucked 70% out of the air - but I`d be interested to know what you mean, Pulpstar.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".
    I share the concern - my wife is a teacher.
    At the moment, it's entirely unclear how infectious children are/aren't (though there's some evidence younger children shed less virus than older).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Somewhat off topic we received the detail of my son's school's plans for August today. It's going to be different but the amount of work that they have put in is really quite remarkable.

    They have analysed how to use every part of the school estate. Bad news is that the 6th year common room is now a class as is the library, the dinner hall and any other nook and cranny.

    Kids are not going to be allowed to leave the school for lunch. They must bring a packed lunch and will eat in 2 shifts at their desks, clearing up between shifts.

    Where necessary classes will be split over 2 or more classrooms with kids attending by zoom and the teacher going between them. Those that choose not to come in will have to have their cameras on and be seen to be in a work environment dressed appropriately (no logging in from bed).

    Kids are going to have blocks of the entire morning or afternoon for each subject reducing the amount of movement around the school.

    With this and other steps the whole school will be back in (unless they choose to learn remotely) from the start of term. A lot of the fripperies, such as enrichment periods (where my daughter learned to cook) are gone but the curriculum will be delivered. Much though I admire the thought and effort put into this I can't help wondering if the EIS will allow the Scottish government to do anything remotely similar in the state schools.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Houston Covid ICU figures look grim


  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MattW said:

    Quite enjoyed this from Hugo on the latest progressivist faceplant.

    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1280792164692353025

    The knots people who call themselves progressives tie themselves into with their tenuous guilt by association tactics are something to behold - great mickey taking material though
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    Why then, not advocate destroying the excessively successful *state* schools. The effect they have on life outcome is just as extreme, in many cases.
    The goal is schools of a high and similar standard for everyone with no fees.
    Impossible given different catchment areas, selective grammar schools, church state schools requiring a vicar's note to enter etc
    It is not impossible for all schools to be of a good and broadly similar standard. It is not even difficult given the will and the resources.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the saving for non Landlords and second home owners? Is it the same?
    Looks like it - he hasn't aiui given a holiday on the "special-for-landlords-and-others" surcharge.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Stocky said:

    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".

    The guidance issued to schools was clear and unambiguous - it is not safe to put 30+ children into each classroom. That wasn't the schools or the teachers or the unions that was the government. Now the advice has been changed so that although they've decided it is now safe to do things in a classroom that its unsafe to do outside a classroom it just presents different challenges and pushes the problem elsewhere.

    For an example, they want everything staggered. You can't completely stagger start / break / lunch / finish times. Nor can you practically manage the arrival and departure of students in such a manner. Nor can you manage school buses. But thats OK because its definitely safe and You Will Be Fined if you don't comply.

    I have banged on and on about the need to send kids back to school, my 9 year old resumed 2 days a week school last week so has 4 days left before the summer. I won't send her back to a full class in September and most will do the same. Not because of the teachers or the unions or Labour. But because unlike the government they aren't stupid.
  • novanova Posts: 692

    I get 50% off meals with my car insurance, I really am not convinced this will do anything to stimulate demand but as always, hope I am wrong

    The difference is with your car insurance the restaurant only gets paid 50% of the bill. Your car insurance company isn't paying the difference, its just a glorified marketing scheme.

    With this scheme the restaurant gets paid 100% of the bill. The government is actually paying the difference which can then pay your waiters wages etc
    Particularly with independent businesses, there's always a bit of a stigma attached to those offers too.

    I wouldn't think twice at Pizza Express, but I know people who own pubs that resent them (even though they signed up for them), and in one chinese restaurant, our three year old was refused a second napkin because we were using an offer (and that restaurant was empty!)
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439


    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.


    Or to put it another way - "Unless all education is excellent there must be no excellence"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".
    A 70% effective vaccine won't see the light of day.
    I just plucked 70% out of the air - but I`d be interested to know what you mean, Pulpstar.
    I think that what is meant is that a vaccine that only protects 70% of recipients will be classed as a fail and won't be distributed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Comically, when the local Free School actually started pulling in middle class parents, the complaint was that it is less diverse.

    Because the diversity measure used is Free School Meals.

    The fact that the middle class parents locally tend to be very diverse* is apparently irrelevant.

    *This is London. Most couple seem to be of different ethnic origins, to each other.

    Noted elsewhere, the same Government that dicked around for a week over £120m for school meals through the summer just bunged Nando's £500m without a whimper...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Stocky said:

    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".

    The guidance issued to schools was clear and unambiguous - it is not safe to put 30+ children into each classroom. That wasn't the schools or the teachers or the unions that was the government. Now the advice has been changed so that although they've decided it is now safe to do things in a classroom that its unsafe to do outside a classroom it just presents different challenges and pushes the problem elsewhere.

    For an example, they want everything staggered. You can't completely stagger start / break / lunch / finish times. Nor can you practically manage the arrival and departure of students in such a manner. Nor can you manage school buses. But thats OK because its definitely safe and You Will Be Fined if you don't comply.

    I have banged on and on about the need to send kids back to school, my 9 year old resumed 2 days a week school last week so has 4 days left before the summer. I won't send her back to a full class in September and most will do the same. Not because of the teachers or the unions or Labour. But because unlike the government they aren't stupid.
    Not to mention, masks are not to be worn...

    Still, it could be worse.
    https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1280853891605823488
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    DavidL said:

    So modern dilemmas, Rishi style. Do I keep employing my wife, bring her back from furlough and claim my £1,000 or do I look to employ a bright young thing under the kickstart scheme instead?

    My wife has doubts about the bright young thing being able to cope with the nightmare that is a digital VAT return. She has a point.

    Ha, the way to do it is to work backwards.

    You want primarily to pay yourself up to the 40% limit, plus pension contributions, and want to pay your wife the rest of your income to minimise the household income tax burden, up to her 40% limit. £1,000 here and there is nothing compared to those tax minimising strategies.

    Alternatively, you make your wife redundant and get to pay her a lump sum redundancy payment tax free, but you can only do that one once.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Alistair said:

    An excellent demonstration of Twitter being a bad representative sample. Basically every Sanders supporter in my Twitter feed that turns up is threatening to vote for Trump or some such.

    Comforting to know they are a tiny proportion in reality.
    Bit like Tory supporters saying they are going to vote against the government on here because of Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Ah, I see what you are up to.

    Interesting that Labour`s monkeying around last year was predicated partly on wanting to avoid WTO which, you say, has never been a possibility.
    Yes that's an interesting and accurate comparison. It's all pointless now but my view back then was that the Benn Act, all of that stuff, was bad politics. We - Labour - should have called Johnson's bluff, made him own all the decisions, because he was never doing No Deal.
    Current situation re: schools reminds me of those times last year.

    Last year Corbyn/McDonnell/Starmer (I suspect Starmer was the brains) had the Conservatives in a head-lock, with the help of the FTPA, only to be released by Swinson`s agreement to hold a GE.

    Now we have Starmer doing the same thing again. He has Conservatives in another head-lock - this time over schools. Starmer is ruthless - and I don`t see the Conservative`s escape from this one.

    Once again, The tories are in a trap of partly their own devising.
    They may get bailed out by the science, one way or the other (which irrespective of the politics, would be a good thing).

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1280826784045547521
    It`s not the children that are the issue - it`s the teachers (perhaps, more fairly, the teachers` unions) and the Labour Party.

    I hope you are right, but I wonder whether even a vaccine with, say, 70% effectiveness would be sufficient for the unions (and Starmer of course) to say "schools are safe".
    A 70% effective vaccine won't see the light of day.
    I just plucked 70% out of the air - but I`d be interested to know what you mean, Pulpstar.
    I think it'll be 90%+
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.

    Barack Obama says "You should get over that quickly"

    https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM?t=2
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Meanwhile, Kanye's project - serious or not - continues to evolve:

    Kanye West breaks with Trump: 'I am taking the red hat off
    https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/506330-kanye-west-breaks-with-trump-i-am-taking-the-red-hat-off
    ...West, whose backing of Trump earned him a White House visit, told Forbes the president no longer has his confidence.

    “It looks like one big mess to me,” he said, adding, “I don’t like that I caught wind that he hid in the bunker,” referencing reports Trump was taken to a secure area during protests outside the White House.

    “One of the main reasons I wore the red hat as a protest to the segregation of votes in the Black community,” he added. “Also, other than the fact that I like Trump hotels and the saxophones in the lobby.”

    The rapper told Forbes he intends to run under the banner of the newly created “Birthday Party,” “because when we win, it’s everybody’s birthday,” and denied that his supposed bid is an attempt to split the vote in Trump’s favor, calling the suggestion “a form of racism and white supremacy and white control to say that all Black people need to be Democrat and to assume that me running is me splitting the vote.”

    West also said he had contracted and recovered from the coronavirus in February and expressed widely debunked conspiracy theories about vaccines, calling any potential vaccine for the virus “the mark of the beast.”

    West also said that although he is poised to miss the filing deadline to get on the ballot in most states, he believes he can argue he should be allowed extra time due to the pandemic, saying: "I’m speaking with experts, I’m going to speak with Jared Kushner, the White House, with [Joe] Biden.”...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited July 2020

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    Small fraction of the intake. The business model is premium product to affluent customers who can afford the price.
    I do not see Harrods or Waitrose or Mercedez Benz or the Ritz offering discounted products to those on lower incomes who could not otherwise afford their premium products
    Like I said, they do it simply to retain their charitable status. Harrods, Waitrose, Mercedes Benz and the Ritz are not charities.
    Yes. It's a fig leaf.
    Saying that, I’m not against private schools. I don’t really care about them. I’d rather simply improve state schools.
    But if I were to convince you that our fetish for our privates was both a gross violation of equal opportunities AND a major barrier to improving the mainstream state sector, I reckon you'd change your mind.
  • Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.
    Is there a need to be so condescending?

    I find it exceptionally rude when people on forums go on about the age of people, in some pathetic attempt to invalidate their opinions because they might be younger.

    Age <> intelligence. Look at Trump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    So modern dilemmas, Rishi style. Do I keep employing my wife, bring her back from furlough and claim my £1,000 or do I look to employ a bright young thing under the kickstart scheme instead?

    My wife has doubts about the bright young thing being able to cope with the nightmare that is a digital VAT return. She has a point.

    Ha, the way to do it is to work backwards.

    You want primarily to pay yourself up to the 40% limit, plus pension contributions, and want to pay your wife the rest of your income to minimise the household income tax burden, up to her 40% limit. £1,000 here and there is nothing compared to those tax minimising strategies.

    Alternatively, you make your wife redundant and get to pay her a lump sum redundancy payment tax free, but you can only do that one once.
    Consulting with my wife about her potential redundancy definitely looks like a task for another day...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    I get 50% off meals with my car insurance, I really am not convinced this will do anything to stimulate demand but as always, hope I am wrong

    Is that a one-time thing, or can you do it for every meal?
    Every meal for a year and then when you renew you get it all over again.

    I also get 2 for 1 at the cinema, it’s genuinely a really good deal.

    I am not using either now as I won’t take the risk.
    Sounds like the old Orange promotion for the cinema. Still, not everyone has paid for that scheme so it should promote some demand.
    They took it over I think, so that’s right.

    A lot of people do use it, everyone I know does something along those lines.

    I hope it does stimulate demand but I just can’t see it myself. Fundamentally people are afraid to go outside and no money is going to change that, in my view.
    Every little helps, and it might tip the balance for quite a few businesses.
    Potentially quite significantly. Since the bill is paid in full with this scheme (rather than simply half the bill getting paid) the restaurant is getting twice as much money coming in but with the same Cost Of Goods Sold.
    Yes. A pub/restaurant will generally work on about 25-33% cost of food, so the usual half price deals at quiet times don't lose them money (the chef is there anyway) and they make on the drinks. This is completely different, the government is buying the second meal and paying full price for it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Alistair said:

    Houston Covid ICU figures look grim


    That is one scary chart.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    From memory only 2 of the 8 were things I've actually said rather than you misrepresenting me.
    No. They are all 100% pukka except - arguably - that you said Boris Johnson was "very muscly". That does have a slight element of exaggeration. The exact words were that he was "17 and a half stone but it's mainly muscle".
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.
    Is there a need to be so condescending?

    I find it exceptionally rude when people on forums go on about the age of people, in some pathetic attempt to invalidate their opinions because they might be younger.

    Age <> intelligence. Look at Trump.
    It's banter. Kinabalu understands that. It also enabled me to put up Obama's comments on wokeism.
    https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM?t=2
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Navarro is almost as much of an arse as Trump.

    https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1280660764383227906

    Madness. Why aren't the pushing the treatments that actually, you know, work?
    The only valid trial so far as I am aware (use of HCQ in combination with zinc), did show it a modest improvement in outcomes if administered at an early stage, which is what this organisation wants to do. So not sure why this request is considered outlandish.
    Because Donald Trump, and politicisation of everything in the USA.

    As you say, the treatment including zinc does seem promising.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    From memory only 2 of the 8 were things I've actually said rather than you misrepresenting me.
    No. They are all 100% pukka except - arguably - that you said Boris Johnson was "very muscly". That does have a slight element of exaggeration. The exact words were that he was "17 and a half stone but it's mainly muscle".
    LOL
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.

    Barack Obama says "You should get over that quickly"

    https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM?t=2
    Lordy, he's looking old these days.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    Somewhat off topic we received the detail of my son's school's plans for August today. It's going to be different but the amount of work that they have put in is really quite remarkable.

    They have analysed how to use every part of the school estate. Bad news is that the 6th year common room is now a class as is the library, the dinner hall and any other nook and cranny.

    Kids are not going to be allowed to leave the school for lunch. They must bring a packed lunch and will eat in 2 shifts at their desks, clearing up between shifts.

    Where necessary classes will be split over 2 or more classrooms with kids attending by zoom and the teacher going between them. Those that choose not to come in will have to have their cameras on and be seen to be in a work environment dressed appropriately (no logging in from bed).

    Kids are going to have blocks of the entire morning or afternoon for each subject reducing the amount of movement around the school.

    With this and other steps the whole school will be back in (unless they choose to learn remotely) from the start of term. A lot of the fripperies, such as enrichment periods (where my daughter learned to cook) are gone but the curriculum will be delivered. Much though I admire the thought and effort put into this I can't help wondering if the EIS will allow the Scottish government to do anything remotely similar in the state schools.

    Sounds like an impressive operation - but as you do, I do wonder whether state school pupils will benefit from such thorough careful planning.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    MattW said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the saving for non Landlords and second home owners? Is it the same?
    Looks like it - he hasn't aiui given a holiday on the "special-for-landlords-and-others" surcharge.
    and so he shouldn't - mind you personally he shouldn't have given away any of the stamp duty, as I'm at a total loss as to how it helps the economy when banks aren't that willing to issue mortgages...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.

    Barack Obama says "You should get over that quickly"

    https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM?t=2
    Lordy, he's looking old these days.
    Shh That's ageism. You'll get cancelled.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Houston Covid ICU figures look grim


    That is one scary chart.
    None of the Texas figures look good.
    https://twitter.com/aaronecarroll/status/1280871752759992321
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Scott_xP said:
    The end of the emergency period as prescribed by legislation?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Off-topic, but at any other time this testimony re Grenfell Tower would be a huge story. We mustn't enter any legal minefields, but just read this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/08/grenfell-tower-fire-engineer-did-not-look-cladding-plans
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited July 2020

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
    It's about equality of opportunity. If this is truly important to somebody they cannot (without ludicrous contortions of argument) be supportive of private schools.
    I think equality of opportunity is a red herring anyway. I'm not okay with people in unskilled jobs being punished for "failing" even if they had an equal opportunity to succeed.

    Someone has to do those jobs in the end, and they should be able to live with dignity while doing so.

    That's more important than trying to force the Middle Class into participating on a level playing field. And if you can live with dignity at the bottom of the heap then equality of opportunity is less threatening to those currently at the top of the pile.
    Yes, great point. If society is highly unequal, giving everyone the same shot at "succeeding" whilst the vast majority "fail" is no nirvana.

    A perfect "meritocracy" is not the dream. It sounds awful. It would be awful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.

    Barack Obama says "You should get over that quickly"

    https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM?t=2
    Lordy, he's looking old these days.
    Shh That's ageism. You'll get cancelled.
    Well as someone not on Facebook, twitter, WhatsApp, etc, that is probably a risk I can run.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Have we seen the details? There are separate rates for second home owners, so it wouldn't be surprising if the holiday only applied to single home owners.
    It only applied to people buying a 'main home', according to the government Twitter post from earlier on this thread.

    Scott's friend Anna Mikhailova is, let's be polite, mistaken.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    :smile: - Go for it.

    As to THE list. Now 8 fold. Will soon need a new sheet of paper at this rate.
    What's the list?
    Philip's absurdities. But I don't bandy it about. I'm not like that.
    You have one or two of your own on wokeism. I don't hold it against you though. I put it down to your age.

    Barack Obama says "You should get over that quickly"

    https://youtu.be/qaHLd8de6nM?t=2
    Lordy, he's looking old these days.
    Shh That's ageism. You'll get cancelled.
    Well as someone not on Facebook, twitter, WhatsApp, etc, that is probably a risk I can run.
    :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    Somewhat off topic we received the detail of my son's school's plans for August today. It's going to be different but the amount of work that they have put in is really quite remarkable.

    They have analysed how to use every part of the school estate. Bad news is that the 6th year common room is now a class as is the library, the dinner hall and any other nook and cranny.

    Kids are not going to be allowed to leave the school for lunch. They must bring a packed lunch and will eat in 2 shifts at their desks, clearing up between shifts.

    Where necessary classes will be split over 2 or more classrooms with kids attending by zoom and the teacher going between them. Those that choose not to come in will have to have their cameras on and be seen to be in a work environment dressed appropriately (no logging in from bed).

    Kids are going to have blocks of the entire morning or afternoon for each subject reducing the amount of movement around the school.

    With this and other steps the whole school will be back in (unless they choose to learn remotely) from the start of term. A lot of the fripperies, such as enrichment periods (where my daughter learned to cook) are gone but the curriculum will be delivered. Much though I admire the thought and effort put into this I can't help wondering if the EIS will allow the Scottish government to do anything remotely similar in the state schools.

    Sounds like an impressive operation - but as you do, I do wonder whether state school pupils will benefit from such thorough careful planning.
    The attitude of the EIS to date and the obeisance to all their demands by the Scottish government is a real worry. My primary concern is that they will make a real education impossible and then cancel the exams again to hide the consequences of their ineptitude.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Nicola is in trouble with the Stamp Duty isn't she? Broke if she copies it, annoys the rich Remainers if she doesn't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    Scott_xP said:
    She has a gravitas problem reminiscent of Estelle Morris.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited July 2020
    DavidL said:

    Somewhat off topic we received the detail of my son's school's plans for August today. It's going to be different but the amount of work that they have put in is really quite remarkable.

    They have analysed how to use every part of the school estate. Bad news is that the 6th year common room is now a class as is the library, the dinner hall and any other nook and cranny.

    Kids are not going to be allowed to leave the school for lunch. They must bring a packed lunch and will eat in 2 shifts at their desks, clearing up between shifts.

    Where necessary classes will be split over 2 or more classrooms with kids attending by zoom and the teacher going between them. Those that choose not to come in will have to have their cameras on and be seen to be in a work environment dressed appropriately (no logging in from bed).

    Kids are going to have blocks of the entire morning or afternoon for each subject reducing the amount of movement around the school.

    With this and other steps the whole school will be back in (unless they choose to learn remotely) from the start of term. A lot of the fripperies, such as enrichment periods (where my daughter learned to cook) are gone but the curriculum will be delivered. Much though I admire the thought and effort put into this I can't help wondering if the EIS will allow the Scottish government to do anything remotely similar in the state schools.

    That's an excellent summary of the differences between private and state schools, in their attitudes towards dealing with the current situation.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Off-topic, but at any other time this testimony re Grenfell Tower would be a huge story. We mustn't enter any legal minefields, but just read this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/08/grenfell-tower-fire-engineer-did-not-look-cladding-plans

    If he didn't read all X pages of plans, that is one thing.

    But he seems to say he didn't even know it was going to be covered in cladding when he signed it off!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Off-topic, but at any other time this testimony re Grenfell Tower would be a huge story. We mustn't enter any legal minefields, but just read this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/08/grenfell-tower-fire-engineer-did-not-look-cladding-plans

    Reading the Guardian, you really are off the reservation, aren't you?

    That testimony is indeed shocking. It would be interesting to ascertain exactly what he thought his firm was being paid for.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Nigelb said:
    Looks like it!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Monkeys said:

    Nicola is in trouble with the Stamp Duty isn't she? Broke if she copies it, annoys the rich Remainers if she doesn't.

    The latter sounds eminently tolerable.
This discussion has been closed.