Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is to Johnson
Today the big political news will be the summer statement by the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, which is being dubbed “the Coronacvirus Mini Budget”. This comes after an extraordinary nine months when has emerged from relative obscurity to be one of the biggest players in UK politics. He’s betting favourite to be Johnson’s successor and second favourite, behind Starmer, for next PM.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/ScreamOfficial/status/1280629575853182977?s=20
Hopefully in the member ballot in 2021
When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.
Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.
A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
Today is the last bit of the easy bit for Sunak as he gets to throw more money around. It will all become a lot more interesting when he has to start saying no.
"There is no Unionist politician in Scotland as skilled as Jim Murphy was in 2014"
Aha 1pm.
FPT: The issue will be severely eased, if perhaps not solved, by modal shift.
My local hospital, where I'm currently visiting far too frequently, has a goal (started in 2018) to increase their cycling / walking travel share by staff from 7% to 12%, which is a start. But most of the infrastructure is of 1970s quality ie half a century out of date.
One of my needs is to get rid of literally hundreds of "A" barriers that keep bikes and wheelchairs off cycle paths.
I don't see that much change can be made to public transport except a gradual recovery over 1-2 years as we get through Corona.
However at present there is 1-2 bn of funding available for rapid change.
Why not make some proposals?
Here is my page of FOIs which I am using as a basis:
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/matt_wardman/requests
Totally agree on the Boris Comms Chaos.
If the economy doesn't falter over the next two years the man is indeed a genius. If it fails (which is highly likely) even through no fault of his own, he will be Johnson's whipping boy.
How he deals with the fallout of covid over the next few years will be more important. Boris has already overpromised heavily, particularly to areas of the country with problems that run far too deep to be solved easily. If he's still popular in four years then good luck to the guy!
If he succeeds he's locked-on odds-on favourite to be Johnson's successor in the same way Brown was to Blair (but hopefully with a better outcome). If the economy fails and doesn't recover the Tories are heading to the opposition benches anyway.
Watch his popularity when he starts taxing it back....
That is how politics works.
"Rowling and Atwood warn: 'vogue for public shaming is threatening liberal society'
Salmon Rushdie and Martin Amis were also among the 150 signatories to the open letter calling for an end to 'cancel culture'"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/07/rowling-rushdie-warn-vogue-public-shaming-threatening-liberal/
He'll be gone in the next reshuffle...!
On-topic: hope Sunak does well. For the national interest. Also that 250/1 tip.
Rishi may be a threat but he's also a lifeline. Like a symbiotic relationship they need each other currently.
https://leantossup.ca/scotland-the-union-is-dead/
Er, no.
Panelbase 19 June: Yes/No/DK: 50/43/7
Panelbase 3 July: Yes/No/DK: 50/43/7
For those with short memories the Panelbase result in January was 49/46
https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/
I agree with TUD - the divorce will not be amicable - the English reaction will be "Here's your hat, where's your hurry?"
The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.
That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.
I've heard some interesting accounts of a negotiation with Sunak. He's commendably ruthless as well as ambitious, and he's also someone who unlike his boss is good on the detail.
The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.
What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1280811489838981120?s=20
As for his prospects, he is at the very least competent, which raises his considerably over most of his colleagues - and I think most people understand he won't be able to be generous for ever.
Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
I'm not sure I know what Sunak believes in, and this will be important when Tories come to choose their next leader. Once Johnson goes, they will revert to caring about beliefs and ideology as well as popularity/electability. There's an awful long way to go before Sunak persuades the Conservative electorate that he is their cup of (Yorkshire) tea, I think.
and that will determine rest of world pricing..
I did think about a bet on Vettel to not make Q3 again.
There is no long-term structural reason why cash can't circulate in normal circumstances currently. There is a temporary, virus-induced problem that needs fixing but once the virus is gone (and it will) then normal service can and must resume.
Hopefully some of our structural issues that did exist like productivity shortages are getting addressed due to adaptations made for the virus. Necessity is the mother of invention and it wouldn't surprise me if in a few years time the UK is growing faster than it would have were it not for the virus.
But the thing I like about this, delving into it a teeny bit, is that the letter, whatever it says, is signed by a load of people most of whom sign themselves "Joanne Smith, writer" or "Joe Smith, author".
Apart from Margaret Atwood. Who signs herself "Margaret Atwood".
BOOM!
On the digital version they can afford a much bigger loss as they are locking people into PSN where they take 100% or 30% of the ticket price on games plus the PS+ attach rate will be close to 100%. They can take a $100+ loss on the hardware quite easily with that one.
On the Xboxen I've heard pricing of £249 for the Series S and £499 for the Series X and $299 and $549 for the US.
Though the UK price is massively subject to change given the potential currency change coming with the EU deal or not.
Reality is I suspect overwhelming majority will spend the money and get it circulating with the multiplier effect that will have on the economy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Finney_Boylan
The relevance is that "free speech" is important only if its the proper people are saying it.....
But I've heard people talking about how they intend to spend their vouchers IRL. My wife wants to go clothes shopping, the kids need new clothes anyway. If these vouchers don't come about after being trailled then that would be a terrible error, they surely have to happen now?
The structural issues you mention are different to Thatcher's time but there are here and just as damaging, and there is little sign that people will willingly doff their caps and go back to not really making ends meet. Even in "white collar" type industries why should business pay £lots for offices they don't need? I did a video call with someone yesterday from a well established full service marketing agency - they shuttered their office and with the lease up have decided they no longer need it. That means far more people WFH which is a major shift in where and how many people live / work / travel / eat / consume.
Unless the government is responsive to these changes an awful lot of people will be out of work. That's their problem. An example - a huge amount of money currently being spent running empty trains. People aren't going to go back to leisure travel and commuting by train in sufficient numbers to make any of the passenger operators or their support businesses viable. Same with the airlines and the travel industry. Long-term you may be right, but without extensive extended job support now they won't be here when we reach the long term.
In the short term alternative solutions are needed. Circulation like this can be helpful as if people are shopping less frequently but spending more when they do then the same amount of money is circulating protecting jobs and the economy but permitting social distancing.
Rather than spending £10-£30 at Primark every single week and spending ages browsing but only picking up 1 or 2 items, if people go shopping for clothes infrequently but spend a lot when they do then the economy is protected, people are still clothed and social distancing occurs.
I'm currently enjoying Civ VI and Stellaris for the PS4, and with Kingdoms of Amalur and Pathfinder Kingmaker on the horizon it's unlikely I'll be buying at launch, but I like keeping abreast of this sort of thing.
Johnson A1: I take responsibility myself, I pay tribute to care workers
Starmer Q2: You're blaming care workers
Johnson A2: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes
Starmer Q3: You're blaming care workers, what do you say to them?
Johnson A3: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes
His 2and and 3rd questions wasted
Shockingly poor from the LOTO. You'd think a lawyer would be used to cross-examing a hostile witness and should be able to listen to the answers given and change the questions.
2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th questions already answered in question 1
Paying tribute to care workers is a far better response.
Shagger says "we'll reform the system, nothing done for 30 years will you support"
Starmer says "of course, you've been in government for 10 years why haven't you done it already?"
The prescient point being that there is a pretense that the Tories haven't been in office for a decade and instead only for a few months.