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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is to Johnson

Today the big political news will be the summer statement by the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, which is being dubbed “the Coronacvirus Mini Budget”. This comes after an extraordinary nine months when has emerged from relative obscurity to be one of the biggest players in UK politics. He’s betting favourite to be Johnson’s successor and second favourite, behind Starmer, for next PM.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    First?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    I notice the care comments from yesterday have fallen off the headlines...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013


    There are no favourable overseas candidates. We went into this insistent that we'd dictate terms to other people and if that failed GATT24 would preserve our current terms. Now that both have failed and we're going to be shish-kebabed surely its better to have someone running the show who doesn't want to see the UK crushed. Which is what we will get - someone will be happy to let the WTO run fairly and thats the UK utterly sunk.

    No.

    If someone wants to crush us then better to have a PM uninvolved with that person and prepared to say "f**k you" and walk away.
    Walk away. From the WTO. To go where?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    I've got non-political friends on WhatsApp asking what they will spend their £500 Sunak tokens on. If he doesn't dish them out having heavily leaked it over the weekend...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    And thank you for that great tip last November.
    You're welcome. I got the same bet myself, £20 with odds boost. If it comes in it will be by far my biggest ever betting win.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    Bobby Gillespie at home to Mr Grumpy last night (tbf I think he is every night).

    https://twitter.com/ScreamOfficial/status/1280629575853182977?s=20
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    I would vote for him in a heartbeat.

    Hopefully in the member ballot in 2021
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    I've got non-political friends on WhatsApp asking what they will spend their £500 Sunak tokens on. If he doesn't dish them out having heavily leaked it over the weekend...

    I'm getting a PS5 with mine. Already decided.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes a lot has changed but in one sense we might be seeing history repeat itself.

    When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.

    Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.

    A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited July 2020
    I am not sure I buy this. If Sunak is successful then Johnson keeps his job. If he isn't, then he is less of a threat to Starmer (and Johnson).

    Today is the last bit of the easy bit for Sunak as he gets to throw more money around. It will all become a lot more interesting when he has to start saying no.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    MaxPB said:

    I've got non-political friends on WhatsApp asking what they will spend their £500 Sunak tokens on. If he doesn't dish them out having heavily leaked it over the weekend...

    I'm getting a PS5 with mine. Already decided.
    As long as its from an independent shop!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes a lot has changed but in one sense we might be seeing history repeat itself.

    When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.

    Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.

    A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
    And the one everyone thinks was fantastic decided to have a referendum on our EU membership!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    FPT
    Dura_Ace said:



    'This divorce will be fairly clean, I think, because there’s no real battle for the soul of Scotland any more. Far from a bitter divorce over an affair with a long, drawn out custody battle, this will be a fairly straightforward division of assets and liabilities, the kind you get when the husband finally admits he’s gay and everyone just realizes this is what needs to happen. Scotland is gone, the Union is dead, and 2019 was probably the last election where Scottish voters sent MPs to Westminster. Vive l’Ecosse Libre.'

    A "Philip Schofield" model for Scottish independence.
    I assume this is dry wit:

    "There is no Unionist politician in Scotland as skilled as Jim Murphy was in 2014"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    When's Sunny's speech?

    Aha 1pm.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    I've got non-political friends on WhatsApp asking what they will spend their £500 Sunak tokens on. If he doesn't dish them out having heavily leaked it over the weekend...

    I'm getting a PS5 with mine. Already decided.
    As long as its from an independent shop!
    Smith's toy shop?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    edited July 2020
    This thread-terruption feature does not become less annoying.

    FPT:

    The brouhaha over hospital parking charges is a very good example of exactly what is wrong with this government. The problem is that the issue is complicated - as @Gallowgate and others have pointed out, there is a severe lack of capacity at many hospitals, and in the long term we want to encourage people to use public transport. That conflicts with the short-term problems of not wanting to push NHS workers onto public transport during the Covid-19 crisis, and it also conflicts with the political need to support them.

    So, tricky to handle. And what does this government do? Instead of getting a grip on it, holding internal discussions to formulate a position and set up the agreed narrative to defend that position, with all Tory MPs properly kept informed, it allows the issue to spill out into the public domain in chaos, with no agreed line, gets a lot of flak, and then rapidly has to try to scrabble to repair the damage.

    Chaotic bumbling, in other words. It almost makes one nostalgic for Alastair Campbell's iron grip on political messaging.

    The issue will be severely eased, if perhaps not solved, by modal shift.

    My local hospital, where I'm currently visiting far too frequently, has a goal (started in 2018) to increase their cycling / walking travel share by staff from 7% to 12%, which is a start. But most of the infrastructure is of 1970s quality ie half a century out of date.

    One of my needs is to get rid of literally hundreds of "A" barriers that keep bikes and wheelchairs off cycle paths.

    I don't see that much change can be made to public transport except a gradual recovery over 1-2 years as we get through Corona.

    However at present there is 1-2 bn of funding available for rapid change.

    Why not make some proposals?

    Here is my page of FOIs which I am using as a basis:
    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/matt_wardman/requests

    Totally agree on the Boris Comms Chaos.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    Sunak would do well to be moved sideways whilst he is still winning.

    If the economy doesn't falter over the next two years the man is indeed a genius. If it fails (which is highly likely) even through no fault of his own, he will be Johnson's whipping boy.
  • novanova Posts: 525
    Rishi gives away free money = popular.

    How he deals with the fallout of covid over the next few years will be more important. Boris has already overpromised heavily, particularly to areas of the country with problems that run far too deep to be solved easily. If he's still popular in four years then good luck to the guy!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Ch173 on sky, 11-12 Smithsonian HD currently showing ‘Britain in Colour’ this time all about Winston Churchill
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    FPT:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting thread on the Internal UK Market post Brexit transition. Typically none of this was thought of before.

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1280766673490976769?s=21

    Food standards were never a devolved matter though. If the Scots were OK with food standards being decided in Brussels then why not Westminster?

    It would be different if they'd always opposed the EU and wanted to control their own standards all along.
    Why would it be different? If the EU significantly lowered their food standards it’s likely the Scottish Parliament would have had a problem with that too.
    Nah, the SNP would have moved in lockstep with Brussels. Its the fact its London that makes it an issue.

    The Scots should just vote for independence and be done with us.
    Tick tock.

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1280747032437809152?s=20
    Yes, this analysis by a Canadian forecaster looks correct to me.

    https://twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1279712823942221824?s=09
    How many Scots or Scottish MPs are in Boris's Cabinet?
    Do you count Gove as Scottish or a reptilian extra terrestrial?
    That is rather insulting to reptiles, most of whom serve very useful purposes.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sunak would do well to be moved sideways whilst he is still winning.

    If the economy doesn't falter over the next two years the man is indeed a genius. If it fails (which is highly likely) even through no fault of his own, he will be Johnson's whipping boy.

    Disagreed. He would do well to stay in place and steer the ship through these turbulent waters.

    If he succeeds he's locked-on odds-on favourite to be Johnson's successor in the same way Brown was to Blair (but hopefully with a better outcome). If the economy fails and doesn't recover the Tories are heading to the opposition benches anyway.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Of course Sunak is popular. He is hosing money about.

    Watch his popularity when he starts taxing it back....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    nova said:

    Rishi gives away free money = popular.

    How he deals with the fallout of covid over the next few years will be more important. Boris has already overpromised heavily, particularly to areas of the country with problems that run far too deep to be solved easily. If he's still popular in four years then good luck to the guy!

    He looks good and has a nice manner. Seems quite comfortable in his skin, I’d say he would do quite well on the personality test (as Starmer does really, just not compared to Boris)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    And thank you for that great tip last November.
    You're welcome. I got the same bet myself, £20 with odds boost. If it comes in it will be by far my biggest ever betting win.
    Not up at midnight on EURef night paying close attention to everything that @AndyJS was writing on here, then?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Sunak would do well to be moved sideways whilst he is still winning.

    If the economy doesn't falter over the next two years the man is indeed a genius. If it fails (which is highly likely) even through no fault of his own, he will be Johnson's whipping boy.

    Disagreed. He would do well to stay in place and steer the ship through these turbulent waters.

    If he succeeds he's locked-on odds-on favourite to be Johnson's successor in the same way Brown was to Blair (but hopefully with a better outcome). If the economy fails and doesn't recover the Tories are heading to the opposition benches anyway.
    I agree with your final statement.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    I would vote for him in a heartbeat.

    Hopefully in the member ballot in 2021

    Is this a call for Johnson to go? It sounds like it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited July 2020
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes a lot has changed but in one sense we might be seeing history repeat itself.

    When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.

    Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.

    A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
    And the one everyone thinks was fantastic decided to have a referendum on our EU membership!
    Indeed. I think he was not quite fantastic but pretty damn good. And as for the EU referendum? It was a democratic imperative. UKIP campaigned for one and made it clear that without it being in the manifesto the Cons wouldn't get their vote so the pledge was put in the manifesto.

    That is how politics works.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,285
    edited July 2020
    OT

    "Rowling and Atwood warn: 'vogue for public shaming is threatening liberal society'

    Salmon Rushdie and Martin Amis were also among the 150 signatories to the open letter calling for an end to 'cancel culture'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/07/rowling-rushdie-warn-vogue-public-shaming-threatening-liberal/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes a lot has changed but in one sense we might be seeing history repeat itself.

    When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.

    Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.

    A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
    And the one everyone thinks was fantastic decided to have a referendum on our EU membership!
    Indeed. I think he was not quite fantastic but pretty damn good. And as for the EU referendum? It was a democratic imperative. UKIP campaigned for one and made it clear that without it being in the manifesto the Cons wouldn't get their vote so the pledge was put in the manifesto.

    That is how politics works.
    Cameron made the pledge before UKIP's support really surged.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    And thank you for that great tip last November.
    You're welcome. I got the same bet myself, £20 with odds boost. If it comes in it will be by far my biggest ever betting win.
    Not up at midnight on EURef night paying close attention to everything that @AndyJS was writing on here, then?
    I was, I just wasn't betting on it and if I was the odds would have been nothing like 250/1 and I'm not prepared to stake much money.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    isam said:

    nova said:

    Rishi gives away free money = popular.

    How he deals with the fallout of covid over the next few years will be more important. Boris has already overpromised heavily, particularly to areas of the country with problems that run far too deep to be solved easily. If he's still popular in four years then good luck to the guy!

    He looks good and has a nice manner. Seems quite comfortable in his skin, I’d say he would do quite well on the personality test (as Starmer does really, just not compared to Boris)
    He did at least one of the debates before the election and looked like he'd been overly prepped. Fixed grin, a little robotic. Since becoming Chancellor and enduring Trial by Ordeal he's loosened up and thats a good thing. There aren't many humans in the cabinet, he is clearly one.

    He'll be gone in the next reshuffle...!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes a lot has changed but in one sense we might be seeing history repeat itself.

    When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.

    Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.

    A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
    And the one everyone thinks was fantastic decided to have a referendum on our EU membership!
    Indeed. I think he was not quite fantastic but pretty damn good. And as for the EU referendum? It was a democratic imperative. UKIP campaigned for one and made it clear that without it being in the manifesto the Cons wouldn't get their vote so the pledge was put in the manifesto.

    That is how politics works.
    Cameron made the pledge before UKIP's support really surged.
    He made the pledge because nearly a hundred of his own MPs voted against him on a Queen's Speech amendment calling for one so he needed to do something.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes - if "do well" means come up with measures equal to the moment. Based on the leaks I'm not sure he has. But perhaps he is spoofing again. I hope so.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm suprised at how low Sajid's back price is for next Leader.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Its absolutely remarkable how much has changed since November. Hope Sunak does well today, the country needs him to do well.

    Yes a lot has changed but in one sense we might be seeing history repeat itself.

    When May was elected leader of the Cons many wise people even on here (ahem) pointed out how transparently obviously unfit for the job she was and so it turned out.

    Many on here did exactly the same about Boris. Manifestly unfit to be PM, at any time really but especially not when DECISIONS need to be made. And maybe it will indeed turn out that way.

    A note on timing: we said May would be found out and she was. But despite the "legendary" Cons ruthlessness, it still took two years. Boris' demise won't play out in 24-hr news cycle time either.
    And the one everyone thinks was fantastic decided to have a referendum on our EU membership!
    Indeed. I think he was not quite fantastic but pretty damn good. And as for the EU referendum? It was a democratic imperative. UKIP campaigned for one and made it clear that without it being in the manifesto the Cons wouldn't get their vote so the pledge was put in the manifesto.

    That is how politics works.
    Cameron made the pledge before UKIP's support really surged.
    The writing was on the wall. No pledge no GE "win".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Max, will that be enough to cover one?

    On-topic: hope Sunak does well. For the national interest. Also that 250/1 tip.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    kinabalu said:

    I would vote for him in a heartbeat.

    Hopefully in the member ballot in 2021

    Is this a call for Johnson to go? It sounds like it.
    I hope he will decide to spend more time with Carrie and his youngster post brexit on the 1st January 2021. Anytime after that is fine by me
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:

    nova said:

    Rishi gives away free money = popular.

    How he deals with the fallout of covid over the next few years will be more important. Boris has already overpromised heavily, particularly to areas of the country with problems that run far too deep to be solved easily. If he's still popular in four years then good luck to the guy!

    He looks good and has a nice manner. Seems quite comfortable in his skin, I’d say he would do quite well on the personality test (as Starmer does really, just not compared to Boris)
    He did at least one of the debates before the election and looked like he'd been overly prepped. Fixed grin, a little robotic. Since becoming Chancellor and enduring Trial by Ordeal he's loosened up and thats a good thing. There aren't many humans in the cabinet, he is clearly one.

    He'll be gone in the next reshuffle...!
    Johnson's not going to sack him. After the last election Boris was all powerful and could reshape the Cabinet but now time has moved on, Boris has taken a couple of knocks and the backdrop of the landslide victory has faded into the reality of COVID19 and the recession. He needs a strong Chancellor.

    Rishi may be a threat but he's also a lifeline. Like a symbiotic relationship they need each other currently.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Let’s start with the independence question, where the Yes side are up 8%, 54-46. The lead is getting bigger every time the question is asked

    https://leantossup.ca/scotland-the-union-is-dead/

    Er, no.

    Panelbase 19 June: Yes/No/DK: 50/43/7
    Panelbase 3 July: Yes/No/DK: 50/43/7

    For those with short memories the Panelbase result in January was 49/46

    https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/

    I agree with TUD - the divorce will not be amicable - the English reaction will be "Here's your hat, where's your hurry?"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Unfortunately I missed @Philip_Thompson's outstanding tip on Sunak, but good on those who got on the bet - that was a fine punt.

    I've heard some interesting accounts of a negotiation with Sunak. He's commendably ruthless as well as ambitious, and he's also someone who unlike his boss is good on the detail.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Let's wait to see. If there are differences, expect squeals.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Let's wait to see. If there are differences, expect squeals.....
    I expect it will be the same list, with just England excluded.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Let's wait to see. If there are differences, expect squeals.....
    I expect it will be the same list, with just England excluded.
    I expect it will be the same list, but in blue ink and with a Saltire stamped on the paper.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: could be heavy rain during qualifying.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Mr. Max, will that be enough to cover one?

    On-topic: hope Sunak does well. For the national interest. Also that 250/1 tip.

    It will be yes, I've heard £329 for the digital edition and £399 for the disc edition. Don't think they will go above £400 for psychological reasons.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    In other news, I've had a haircut. Did ask for the surplus hair so my wife could knit it into a scarf or something, but no can do apparently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Unfortunately I missed @Philip_Thompson's outstanding tip on Sunak, but good on those who got on the bet - that was a fine punt.

    I've heard some interesting accounts of a negotiation with Sunak. He's commendably ruthless as well as ambitious, and he's also someone who unlike his boss is good on the detail.

    I too missed the tip, but kudos to Philip nonetheless.
    As for his prospects, he is at the very least competent, which raises his considerably over most of his colleagues - and I think most people understand he won't be able to be generous for ever.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Max, ah, interesting. Wibbling rumours online suggest both consoles might be rather higher, but obviously you know your beans.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    Who is Jennifer Boylan and why is she relevant?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    I wonder if the idolatry of Sunak on here by many is premature? Certainly he has made an impressive start, especially in contrast with Johnson. But do we really know much about him or where he would take the Tory party? I don't have a clue.

    I'm not sure I know what Sunak believes in, and this will be important when Tories come to choose their next leader. Once Johnson goes, they will revert to caring about beliefs and ideology as well as popularity/electability. There's an awful long way to go before Sunak persuades the Conservative electorate that he is their cup of (Yorkshire) tea, I think.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, will that be enough to cover one?

    On-topic: hope Sunak does well. For the national interest. Also that 250/1 tip.

    It will be yes, I've heard £329 for the digital edition and £399 for the disc edition. Don't think they will go above £400 for psychological reasons.
    I don't think the price in £ matters at all. The question is will they want to sell it for $399 or $499...

    and that will determine rest of world pricing..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: could be heavy rain during qualifying.

    That would make it fun for everyone except those betting on the obvious favourites.

    I did think about a bet on Vettel to not make Q3 again.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    It won't be a long-term problem though. The issue in the 70s was that no government was willing to face up to tough, deep structural issues within the UK until Thatcher did.

    There is no long-term structural reason why cash can't circulate in normal circumstances currently. There is a temporary, virus-induced problem that needs fixing but once the virus is gone (and it will) then normal service can and must resume.

    Hopefully some of our structural issues that did exist like productivity shortages are getting addressed due to adaptations made for the virus. Necessity is the mother of invention and it wouldn't surprise me if in a few years time the UK is growing faster than it would have were it not for the virus.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:



    'This divorce will be fairly clean, I think, because there’s no real battle for the soul of Scotland any more. Far from a bitter divorce over an affair with a long, drawn out custody battle, this will be a fairly straightforward division of assets and liabilities, the kind you get when the husband finally admits he’s gay and everyone just realizes this is what needs to happen. Scotland is gone, the Union is dead, and 2019 was probably the last election where Scottish voters sent MPs to Westminster. Vive l’Ecosse Libre.'

    A "Philip Schofield" model for Scottish independence.
    I assume this is dry wit:

    "There is no Unionist politician in Scotland as skilled as Jim Murphy was in 2014"
    Or maybe a particularly bitchy judgment on the current crop?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: oh, and seen already I imagine, but it's not Hulk returning to Renault. It's Alonso.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MattW said:

    Who is Jennifer Boylan and why is she relevant?
    I have no idea what the hell is going on with JK Rowling ( @kinabalu helpfully posted a video last night to explain it all but it was an hour long and I only got to 8mins before life intruded - will go back to it at some point).

    But the thing I like about this, delving into it a teeny bit, is that the letter, whatever it says, is signed by a load of people most of whom sign themselves "Joanne Smith, writer" or "Joe Smith, author".

    Apart from Margaret Atwood. Who signs herself "Margaret Atwood".

    BOOM!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    MattW said:

    Who is Jennifer Boylan and why is she relevant?
    Good question. Why do those who complain about counter culture do so much to promote it by elevating non entities on twitter to the news.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    If he gives us cash we will put it in the bank...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    If he gives us cash we will put it in the bank...
    Thats why if he gives a handout it will be vouchers that expire not cash!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    If he gives us cash we will put it in the bank...
    I would expect it to be in voucher form with no cash value
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Mr. Max, ah, interesting. Wibbling rumours online suggest both consoles might be rather higher, but obviously you know your beans.

    The digital edition has been created to hit the $399 price point in the US and the original PS4 price point everywhere else in the world. The disc version is the one which has a bigger question mark, but I can't see them going over £399 or $499, it would be a big ask in an economic downturn and with game prices supposedly going up and PS+ price set to rise it will be easier to take a loss of $50-70 upfront on the build cost for the disc version.

    On the digital version they can afford a much bigger loss as they are locking people into PSN where they take 100% or 30% of the ticket price on games plus the PS+ attach rate will be close to 100%. They can take a $100+ loss on the hardware quite easily with that one.

    On the Xboxen I've heard pricing of £249 for the Series S and £499 for the Series X and $299 and $549 for the US.

    Though the UK price is massively subject to change given the potential currency change coming with the EU deal or not.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Owen Jones tying himself in knots below that.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited July 2020

    kinabalu said:

    I would vote for him in a heartbeat.

    Hopefully in the member ballot in 2021

    Is this a call for Johnson to go? It sounds like it.
    I hope he will decide to spend more time with Carrie and his youngster post brexit on the 1st January 2021. Anytime after that is fine by me
    That's a very unusual and humane spin. Your concern is not so much he is unsuited to be PM but rather that he does not pass up what is probably his last opportunity to create a happy and stable domestic life for himself. He really should, as the old cliche goes, "spend more time with the family".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    If he gives us cash we will put it in the bank...
    Thats why if he gives a handout it will be vouchers that expire not cash!
    It depends where the vouchers can be redeemed. If its in places you would have spent money anyway you can simply use the vouchers and keep your own money in the bank (same thing), but if its places you might not have otherwise shopped then it will be new money circulating.

    Reality is I suspect overwhelming majority will spend the money and get it circulating with the multiplier effect that will have on the economy.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    That was a fantastic call @Philip_Thompson, I only wish I had put some money on :(
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MattW said:

    Who is Jennifer Boylan and why is she relevant?
    Trans Woman (originally James) Professor at all female Barnard College, part of Columbia Uni, NY.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Finney_Boylan

    The relevance is that "free speech" is important only if its the proper people are saying it.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Interestingly not seen much about the vouchers on the news, news seems obsessed with stamp duty (when is the news not obsessed with houses?)

    But I've heard people talking about how they intend to spend their vouchers IRL. My wife wants to go clothes shopping, the kids need new clothes anyway. If these vouchers don't come about after being trailled then that would be a terrible error, they surely have to happen now?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tlg86 said:

    Owen Jones tying himself in knots below that.

    He's seriously out of his depth.....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    It won't be a long-term problem though. The issue in the 70s was that no government was willing to face up to tough, deep structural issues within the UK until Thatcher did.

    There is no long-term structural reason why cash can't circulate in normal circumstances currently. There is a temporary, virus-induced problem that needs fixing but once the virus is gone (and it will) then normal service can and must resume.

    Hopefully some of our structural issues that did exist like productivity shortages are getting addressed due to adaptations made for the virus. Necessity is the mother of invention and it wouldn't surprise me if in a few years time the UK is growing faster than it would have were it not for the virus.
    "normal service can and must resume" is what the government want - hence the "patriotic duty" to drink/shop comments, but isn't what people want. In the short and potentially medium term the virus is here, hasn't gone away and drives change in behaviors through fear. The government can say stuff like "you will send your kids to school or we'll fine you" and I'll pay the fine thanks. Same with the lack of people going to the pub / restaurants.

    The structural issues you mention are different to Thatcher's time but there are here and just as damaging, and there is little sign that people will willingly doff their caps and go back to not really making ends meet. Even in "white collar" type industries why should business pay £lots for offices they don't need? I did a video call with someone yesterday from a well established full service marketing agency - they shuttered their office and with the lease up have decided they no longer need it. That means far more people WFH which is a major shift in where and how many people live / work / travel / eat / consume.

    Unless the government is responsive to these changes an awful lot of people will be out of work. That's their problem. An example - a huge amount of money currently being spent running empty trains. People aren't going to go back to leisure travel and commuting by train in sufficient numbers to make any of the passenger operators or their support businesses viable. Same with the airlines and the travel industry. Long-term you may be right, but without extensive extended job support now they won't be here when we reach the long term.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Sunak has done well so far in the job, he's come across as suited to the role and spoken eloquently about the difficulties we face.

    The problem is that all his department has done so far his spend money, to the point where we are looking at an annual deficit to make 2009 cry. At some point, he's going to have to cut spending and raise taxes, or find a way to introduce a big dose of inflation into the economy, that's when life gets more difficult for him.

    That said, he deserves our best wishes, there's no easy way out from where we are now.

    Quantitative Easing.

    The Bank has printed £300bn this year which means in reality how much is our deficit this year? Also prevents deflation and adds a bit of much needed inflation into the country.

    What's going to matter more is future years. The deficit will have to close again, not this year but before too long.
    Fundamentally we're going to have to keep tipping cash into circulation to keep large parts of the economy open. Will be a long term problem to manage that is less bad than the immediate short term contraction of money stopping circulating. If we get the suggested £1,500 in Sunak tokens (2 adults 2 kids) then I'll go and spend £1,500 in tokens in the bits of the economy they are intended for. If we don't then it'll be a few hundred maybe.

    Spend the cash to keep jobs that will go otherwise in a strategically important industry? Where cash to preserve the jobs is less than the hit of not doing so? Its the 1970s redux.
    It won't be a long-term problem though. The issue in the 70s was that no government was willing to face up to tough, deep structural issues within the UK until Thatcher did.

    There is no long-term structural reason why cash can't circulate in normal circumstances currently. There is a temporary, virus-induced problem that needs fixing but once the virus is gone (and it will) then normal service can and must resume.

    Hopefully some of our structural issues that did exist like productivity shortages are getting addressed due to adaptations made for the virus. Necessity is the mother of invention and it wouldn't surprise me if in a few years time the UK is growing faster than it would have were it not for the virus.
    "normal service can and must resume" is what the government want - hence the "patriotic duty" to drink/shop comments, but isn't what people want. In the short and potentially medium term the virus is here, hasn't gone away and drives change in behaviors through fear. The government can say stuff like "you will send your kids to school or we'll fine you" and I'll pay the fine thanks. Same with the lack of people going to the pub / restaurants.

    The structural issues you mention are different to Thatcher's time but there are here and just as damaging, and there is little sign that people will willingly doff their caps and go back to not really making ends meet. Even in "white collar" type industries why should business pay £lots for offices they don't need? I did a video call with someone yesterday from a well established full service marketing agency - they shuttered their office and with the lease up have decided they no longer need it. That means far more people WFH which is a major shift in where and how many people live / work / travel / eat / consume.

    Unless the government is responsive to these changes an awful lot of people will be out of work. That's their problem. An example - a huge amount of money currently being spent running empty trains. People aren't going to go back to leisure travel and commuting by train in sufficient numbers to make any of the passenger operators or their support businesses viable. Same with the airlines and the travel industry. Long-term you may be right, but without extensive extended job support now they won't be here when we reach the long term.
    I'm not saying normal service must resume now, I'm saying in the long term it must.

    In the short term alternative solutions are needed. Circulation like this can be helpful as if people are shopping less frequently but spending more when they do then the same amount of money is circulating protecting jobs and the economy but permitting social distancing.

    Rather than spending £10-£30 at Primark every single week and spending ages browsing but only picking up 1 or 2 items, if people go shopping for clothes infrequently but spend a lot when they do then the economy is protected, people are still clothed and social distancing occurs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Max, interesting and useful stuff, thanks.

    I'm currently enjoying Civ VI and Stellaris for the PS4, and with Kingdoms of Amalur and Pathfinder Kingmaker on the horizon it's unlikely I'll be buying at launch, but I like keeping abreast of this sort of thing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Interestingly not seen much about the vouchers on the news, news seems obsessed with stamp duty (when is the news not obsessed with houses?)

    But I've heard people talking about how they intend to spend their vouchers IRL. My wife wants to go clothes shopping, the kids need new clothes anyway. If these vouchers don't come about after being trailled then that would be a terrible error, they surely have to happen now?

    As I mentioned upthread my non-politico friends are the same. As for a terrible error, of course they won't happen...
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    tlg86 said:

    Owen Jones tying himself in knots below that.

    He's seriously out of his depth.....
    Oh no - has he stepped in a puddle again?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    tlg86 said:

    Owen Jones tying himself in knots below that.

    He's seriously out of his depth.....
    ...in a nursery school?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Just had to switch from Sky News to BBC as Sky aren't carrying PMQs for some reason. Odd.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Transferable vouchers? If so then why not cash? If non-transferable then they must be person-specific and that may require proof of identity and imply inefficient allocation.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Starmer going on Care Homes - direct quote and asks for apology. Johnson going on asymptomatic defence - not sure how robust that is......
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Starmer being a prat. Boris's answer to Starmer's first question was unequivocal and clear paying tribute to care workers but Starmer ignored that and carried on with his prescripted questions.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    geoffw said:

    Transferable vouchers? If so then why not cash? If non-transferable then they must be person-specific and that may require proof of identity and imply inefficient allocation.

    Because they will expire and cant be put in a bank.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Starmer going on Care Homes - direct quote and asks for apology. Johnson going on asymptomatic defence - not sure how robust that is......

    Having seen the clips from Hancock in March talking about asymptomatic transmission it'll backfire badly again.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Starmer Q1: You're blaming care workers
    Johnson A1: I take responsibility myself, I pay tribute to care workers
    Starmer Q2: You're blaming care workers
    Johnson A2: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes
    Starmer Q3: You're blaming care workers, what do you say to them?
    Johnson A3: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    SKS as bad as Jezza at not listening to the previous answer.

    His 2and and 3rd questions wasted
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Not sure Starmer is winning this
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,703
    Why does no-one simply have the gumption to say "I endorse the contents of the letter, not necessarily the other people signing it" ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SKS as bad as Jezza at not listening to the previous answer.

    His 2and and 3rd questions wasted

    Johnson on A4 saying SKS is reading pre-prepared questions without listening to the answer.

    Shockingly poor from the LOTO. You'd think a lawyer would be used to cross-examing a hostile witness and should be able to listen to the answers given and change the questions.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Dire PMQs for SKS

    2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th questions already answered in question 1
  • NestacresNestacres Posts: 17
    Not sure why boris hasnt referred to the fact that several care home were investigated by CQC for not following practices.....https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/07/exclusive-dozens-care-homes-investigated-covid-safety-fears/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nestacres said:

    Not sure why boris hasnt referred to the fact that several care home were investigated by CQC for not following practices.....https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/07/exclusive-dozens-care-homes-investigated-covid-safety-fears/

    It would be deliberately misconstrued if he did.

    Paying tribute to care workers is a far better response.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Interesting exchange.
    Shagger says "we'll reform the system, nothing done for 30 years will you support"
    Starmer says "of course, you've been in government for 10 years why haven't you done it already?"

    The prescient point being that there is a pretense that the Tories haven't been in office for a decade and instead only for a few months.
This discussion has been closed.