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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is

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  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    Excellent article on the Graun.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/08/lockdown-pointing-finger-rule-breakers-britons-pints

    @contrarian one for you especially but every word is spot on imo.

    interesting thanks
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Where's my 500 quid?

    Good question. Nowhere to be seen.

    I actually feel poorer now. It's like Sunak has picked my pocket.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Doesn’t a 1K bonus just incentivise companies to keep employees until January and then fire them

    No, the whole point is to keep people in employment and generate an economic recovery. If the news of the vaccine trials working are true then tiding employment over until January might be all we need.
    That doesn’t dispute what I said. This policy will be so easily abused, keep a worker on for a few months get a free bonus then fire them.
    Your thinking is two dimensional. By keeping people in work and generating an economic recovery in the fourth quarter there would be no reason to sack anyone in January. It's trying to jump start a jobs based virtuous circle recovery. It's a policy which is very cheap for what it is trying to achieve.
    There is a "stickiness" to jobs - and the structures within companies that employers form.

    The point about the furlough was to not break through that, by keeping people rather than firing them.

    This means a larger chance that the company can come back to something like normal operation, and faster. Which in turn helps the companies it deals with, owes money to etc.

    The bonus is to create a financial incentive (but not too large) to keep people through the initial pain as things start up.
    I'm both on (part time now) Furlough and have had to do the maths/rationale for furloughing people working for me. The £1,000 will be a welcome bonus for jobs that are going to be retained. But it won't in itself retain jobs. Industries which have been smashed by the Rona and aren't about to bounce back anywhere near Status Quo Ante won't be saved by an extra grand.

    The government can't do any more with the £ being pumped into the economy - its an awful lot. Many jobs have gone and aren't coming back regardless of what he does and its beyond wishful thinking that we're going back to how we were.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Nope, not that one. Germany cut the VAT rate, what Sunak has announced is target relief at certain industries and products, which is most definitely not allowed under EU rules. See Tampons and domestic fuel for examples.
    "Imported Chinese tat" as one poster here likes to refer to still gets 20% while domestically produced hospitality gets a targeted discount.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Oh yay Pb Tories wanking over their leader

    The PB Tory thing was a tim/mickpork gag. They were clever and witty enough to make it (sometimes) funny.

    You, Mr Senator, are no mickpork and also have failed to notice that most pb tories aren't any more, anyway, and that analyses of pmq have been scrupulously fair ever since sks took over. So, OK, you think pbtories are thick and prejudiced, but could we just take that as read from here on in?
    Another bore to add to the list. Don’t like my posts, don’t respond.

    I have just as much right to talk as you. I know you don’t like me talking, I don’t care.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited July 2020

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    WHAT???? >:)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    That seems like a huge miss if pints aren't included.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.

    Many of us here called for it, it's 50p-75p off a pint.
    Yes - that was my first calculation :)
    It would be a really good idea to keep that 5% rate permanently, would make a big difference to people evaluating domestic vs foreign holidays for example, as well as encouraging eating out and using pubs vs supermarket drinks.
    Eating out has always been punitively taxed by VAT.

    Buy a supermarket pizza and there is 0% VAT on it.
    Buy a restaurant/takeout one and 20% VAT is slapped onto it.

    I don't see why supermarkets need to be incentivised by the tax system like that.
    We are supposed to zero rate essentials, and if you can buy it from a pub, it's not an essential?

    Tesco's beer also carries 20% VAT.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kinabalu said:

    Where's my 500 quid?

    Good question. Nowhere to be seen.

    I actually feel poorer now. It's like Sunak has picked my pocket.
    That comes in the autumn.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Sandpit said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    WHAT???? >:)
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898421/A_Plan_for_Jobs__Web_.pdf

    2.31 Temporary VAT cut for food and non-alcoholic drinks – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs in the hospitality sector, the reduced (5%) rate
    of VAT will apply to supplies of food and non-alcoholic drinks from restaurants, pubs, bars, cafés
    and similar premises across the UK. Further guidance on the scope of this relief will be published
    by HMRC in the coming days.
    2.32 Temporary VAT cut for accommodation and attractions – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs, the reduced (5%) rate of VAT will apply to
    supplies of accommodation and admission to attractions across the UK. Further guidance on the
    scope of this relief will be published by HMRC in the coming days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    This is one very worried government, to be hosing all this dosh around to bribe firms to keep people in work. Rightly worried, of course.

    Nobody sane can say they're not taking this seriously.

    I've never been more grateful that we didn't elect Corbyn though. Can you imagine what Corbyn would have done if he and McDonnell were in Downing Street? Anything that moved would be nationalised under the guise of bailing them out.
    You’ll never know the answer to that it’s pure speculation.
    Its more than just speculation. We know what they wanted to nationalise even at the best of times.
    You haven’t got a clue how he would have responded in the face of the current crisis as I say pure speculation.
    We have more than a clue. He's given us "clues" as to how he thinks.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    How on earth does labour respond to this other than too little too late

    Too little too late.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.

    Many of us here called for it, it's 50p-75p off a pint.
    Yes - that was my first calculation :)
    It would be a really good idea to keep that 5% rate permanently, would make a big difference to people evaluating domestic vs foreign holidays for example, as well as encouraging eating out and using pubs vs supermarket drinks.
    Eating out has always been punitively taxed by VAT.

    Buy a supermarket pizza and there is 0% VAT on it.
    Buy a restaurant/takeout one and 20% VAT is slapped onto it.

    I don't see why supermarkets need to be incentivised by the tax system like that.
    We are supposed to zero rate essentials, and if you can buy it from a pub, it's not an essential?

    Tesco's beer also carries 20% VAT.
    Food is an essential.

    Buy a pizza from Morrisons and its 0%, buy a pizza from Domino's and its 20%

    That is illogical.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    VAT cut doesn't include alcohol? Bwah ha ha ha FFS
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    This is one very worried government, to be hosing all this dosh around to bribe firms to keep people in work. Rightly worried, of course.

    Nobody sane can say they're not taking this seriously.

    I've never been more grateful that we didn't elect Corbyn though. Can you imagine what Corbyn would have done if he and McDonnell were in Downing Street? Anything that moved would be nationalised under the guise of bailing them out.
    Get some bang for our buck you mean?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    WHAT???? >:)
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898421/A_Plan_for_Jobs__Web_.pdf

    2.31 Temporary VAT cut for food and non-alcoholic drinks – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs in the hospitality sector, the reduced (5%) rate
    of VAT will apply to supplies of food and non-alcoholic drinks from restaurants, pubs, bars, cafés
    and similar premises across the UK. Further guidance on the scope of this relief will be published
    by HMRC in the coming days.
    2.32 Temporary VAT cut for accommodation and attractions – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs, the reduced (5%) rate of VAT will apply to
    supplies of accommodation and admission to attractions across the UK. Further guidance on the
    scope of this relief will be published by HMRC in the coming days.
    Oh dear oh dear.

    I think that counts as a big miss from the Chancellor, and writes tomorrow's headlines as publicans complain that the stingy git can't even drop the price of a pint to help them out.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    MaxPB said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    That seems like a huge miss if pints aren't included.
    Not included in the eat out to help out either, unless pints of soft drinks.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.

    Many of us here called for it, it's 50p-75p off a pint.
    Yes - that was my first calculation :)
    It would be a really good idea to keep that 5% rate permanently, would make a big difference to people evaluating domestic vs foreign holidays for example, as well as encouraging eating out and using pubs vs supermarket drinks.
    Eating out has always been punitively taxed by VAT.

    Buy a supermarket pizza and there is 0% VAT on it.
    Buy a restaurant/takeout one and 20% VAT is slapped onto it.

    I don't see why supermarkets need to be incentivised by the tax system like that.
    We are supposed to zero rate essentials, and if you can buy it from a pub, it's not an essential?

    Tesco's beer also carries 20% VAT.
    Food is an essential.

    Buy a pizza from Morrisons and its 0%, buy a pizza from Domino's and its 20%

    That is illogical.
    I don't think it's illogical. I see it both ways.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    That seems like a huge miss if pints aren't included.
    Not necessarily since there's input VAT on beer.

    What's being cut is areas where there's no input VAT but there is output VAT. Fixing that is a bigger difference.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Andrew Neil nails it

    He makes the point that when a tory government announces 30bn of extra spending in 30 minutes, it doesn't leave labour much space.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    Sandpit said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    WHAT???? >:)
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898421/A_Plan_for_Jobs__Web_.pdf

    2.31 Temporary VAT cut for food and non-alcoholic drinks – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs in the hospitality sector, the reduced (5%) rate
    of VAT will apply to supplies of food and non-alcoholic drinks from restaurants, pubs, bars, cafés
    and similar premises across the UK. Further guidance on the scope of this relief will be published
    by HMRC in the coming days.
    2.32 Temporary VAT cut for accommodation and attractions – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs, the reduced (5%) rate of VAT will apply to
    supplies of accommodation and admission to attractions across the UK. Further guidance on the
    scope of this relief will be published by HMRC in the coming days.
    Any word on how pasties will be affected?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Andrew Neil nails it

    He makes the point that when a tory government announces 30bn of extra spending in 30 minutes, it doesn't leave labour much space.

    There's always that time as LotO when it's better to agree with the government, or at least say you'll wait for the published detail.

    Someone get him a message that the VAT cut on hospitality doesn't include pints.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Sandpit said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    WHAT???? >:)
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898421/A_Plan_for_Jobs__Web_.pdf

    2.31 Temporary VAT cut for food and non-alcoholic drinks – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs in the hospitality sector, the reduced (5%) rate
    of VAT will apply to supplies of food and non-alcoholic drinks from restaurants, pubs, bars, cafés
    and similar premises across the UK. Further guidance on the scope of this relief will be published
    by HMRC in the coming days.
    2.32 Temporary VAT cut for accommodation and attractions – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs, the reduced (5%) rate of VAT will apply to
    supplies of accommodation and admission to attractions across the UK. Further guidance on the
    scope of this relief will be published by HMRC in the coming days.
    Any word on how pasties will be affected?
    Pasties for consumption, hot, off the premises are the same as takeways, which I note are absent from the above.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer Q1: You're blaming care workers
    Johnson A1: I take responsibility myself, I pay tribute to care workers
    Starmer Q2: You're blaming care workers
    Johnson A2: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes
    Starmer Q3: You're blaming care workers, what do you say to them?
    Johnson A3: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes

    Except he's not taking responsibility himself. He's blaming care workers.
    Except he's not, he literally said "I take fully responsibility".
    Ah, I see.

    So saying "I take responsibility" means he's taken responsibility.

    What a lovely world you live in. It's like Camberwick Green!
    Yes it does.
    Decided to give you a chance here but if you don't take it this is going on the list.

    Does just saying "I take responsibility" mean that a person has in fact taken responsibility?
    Yes. It is literally what the words say and mean.
    Right. It's gone on. Number 8 -

    "All Johnson has to do to take responsibility for something is say that he's taken responsibility."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Sandpit said:

    Is the hospitality VAT cut a temp measure like stamp duty? or is cheaper outdoor beer the new normal?

    Beer isnt included, its for eating out food, non alcoholic drinks, accommodation and attractions. And til 12 January 2021.
    WHAT???? >:)
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898421/A_Plan_for_Jobs__Web_.pdf

    2.31 Temporary VAT cut for food and non-alcoholic drinks – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs in the hospitality sector, the reduced (5%) rate
    of VAT will apply to supplies of food and non-alcoholic drinks from restaurants, pubs, bars, cafés
    and similar premises across the UK. Further guidance on the scope of this relief will be published
    by HMRC in the coming days.
    2.32 Temporary VAT cut for accommodation and attractions – From 15 July 2020 to
    12 January 2021, to support businesses and jobs, the reduced (5%) rate of VAT will apply to
    supplies of accommodation and admission to attractions across the UK. Further guidance on the
    scope of this relief will be published by HMRC in the coming days.
    Any word on how pasties will be affected?
    Is it now a devolved matter for Cornwall?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Doesn’t a 1K bonus just incentivise companies to keep employees until January and then fire them

    No, the whole point is to keep people in employment and generate an economic recovery. If the news of the vaccine trials working are true then tiding employment over until January might be all we need.
    That doesn’t dispute what I said. This policy will be so easily abused, keep a worker on for a few months get a free bonus then fire them.
    Your thinking is two dimensional. By keeping people in work and generating an economic recovery in the fourth quarter there would be no reason to sack anyone in January. It's trying to jump start a jobs based virtuous circle recovery. It's a policy which is very cheap for what it is trying to achieve.
    There is a "stickiness" to jobs - and the structures within companies that employers form.

    The point about the furlough was to not break through that, by keeping people rather than firing them.

    This means a larger chance that the company can come back to something like normal operation, and faster. Which in turn helps the companies it deals with, owes money to etc.

    The bonus is to create a financial incentive (but not too large) to keep people through the initial pain as things start up.
    I'm both on (part time now) Furlough and have had to do the maths/rationale for furloughing people working for me. The £1,000 will be a welcome bonus for jobs that are going to be retained. But it won't in itself retain jobs. Industries which have been smashed by the Rona and aren't about to bounce back anywhere near Status Quo Ante won't be saved by an extra grand.

    The government can't do any more with the £ being pumped into the economy - its an awful lot. Many jobs have gone and aren't coming back regardless of what he does and its beyond wishful thinking that we're going back to how we were.
    Yes - its more a nudge than anything else. But 100K for keeping a 100 jobs is not nothing...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Scott_xP said:
    Who is paying for those and does the Lord High Executioner not see this as a threat to the boss?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer Q1: You're blaming care workers
    Johnson A1: I take responsibility myself, I pay tribute to care workers
    Starmer Q2: You're blaming care workers
    Johnson A2: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes
    Starmer Q3: You're blaming care workers, what do you say to them?
    Johnson A3: I pay tribute to care workers and we are investing in care homes

    Except he's not taking responsibility himself. He's blaming care workers.
    Except he's not, he literally said "I take fully responsibility".
    Ah, I see.

    So saying "I take responsibility" means he's taken responsibility.

    What a lovely world you live in. It's like Camberwick Green!
    Yes it does.
    Decided to give you a chance here but if you don't take it this is going on the list.

    Does just saying "I take responsibility" mean that a person has in fact taken responsibility?
    Yes. It is literally what the words say and mean.
    Right. It's gone on. Number 8 -

    "All Johnson has to do to take responsibility for something is say that he's taken responsibility."
    Yes. That one is actually true unlike most of your list.

    The buck stops here. He needs to say that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Oh yay Pb Tories wanking over their leader

    The PB Tory thing was a tim/mickpork gag. They were clever and witty enough to make it (sometimes) funny.

    You, Mr Senator, are no mickpork and also have failed to notice that most pb tories aren't any more, anyway, and that analyses of pmq have been scrupulously fair ever since sks took over. So, OK, you think pbtories are thick and prejudiced, but could we just take that as read from here on in?
    Another bore to add to the list. Don’t like my posts, don’t respond.

    I have just as much right to talk as you. I know you don’t like me talking, I don’t care.
    I don't, on average, not like you talking. But do have a think about how much "Oh yay Pb Tories wanking over their leader" adds to any useful debate, and how it makes you look.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She took a hospital pass. No doubt about it. I watched her face as she listened to Sunak. I actually felt sorry for her.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Oh yay Pb Tories wanking over their leader

    The PB Tory thing was a tim/mickpork gag. They were clever and witty enough to make it (sometimes) funny.

    You, Mr Senator, are no mickpork and also have failed to notice that most pb tories aren't any more, anyway, and that analyses of pmq have been scrupulously fair ever since sks took over. So, OK, you think pbtories are thick and prejudiced, but could we just take that as read from here on in?
    Another bore to add to the list. Don’t like my posts, don’t respond.

    I have just as much right to talk as you. I know you don’t like me talking, I don’t care.
    I don't, on average, not like you talking. But do have a think about how much "Oh yay Pb Tories wanking over their leader" adds to any useful debate, and how it makes you look.
    Yet when others add nothing you don’t call them out. As usual, double standards.

    I couldn’t give a toss how I look to anyone. Please stop telling me what to do, goodbye.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Barnesian said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She took a hospital pass. No doubt about it. I watched her face as she listened to Sunak. I actually felt sorry for her.
    Nothing Dodds can do when the tories are spending.

    But one day, and one day soon, they may be cutting......
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56

    PMQs today
    SKS - Why are you blaiming Care Workers it's your fault
    BJ - Careworkers have been brilliant I take full responsibility
    SKS - Why are you blaming Careworkers and not taking full responsibility
    BJ - I just did I will say again I pay tribute to Careworkers I was not blaming them The Govt takes full responsibility
    SKS That's not good enough this Careworker says she is upset that the PM is blaming Careworkers.
    BJ Are you fooking deaf or what.
    SKS repeat 3rd question
    BJ says learn to think on your feet you stupid person.
    SKS NHS parking blah blah bore on
    BJ Its free and unlike Lab we will make it free for some patients too.

    BJ 5-0 SKS
    BJ 5 fookin 0

    Starmer lucky to get nil

    That's pretty forensic BJO.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited July 2020
    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme and loans.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Barnesian said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She took a hospital pass. No doubt about it. I watched her face as she listened to Sunak. I actually felt sorry for her.
    She should have gone with "And just where was the £500", "Why do the hospitality schemes not extend to beer" :D
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Should've included booze. Mistake
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Chancellor Sunak has the most Star Wars name in British history. No wonder he's outmanoeuvring his opponents.

    I, for one, fully support his £200bn construction project. The sooner the Deeply Education And Theoretical Hyperspace Survey Transport Astronavigation Relay becomes operational the better.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Doesn’t a 1K bonus just incentivise companies to keep employees until January and then fire them

    No, the whole point is to keep people in employment and generate an economic recovery. If the news of the vaccine trials working are true then tiding employment over until January might be all we need.
    That doesn’t dispute what I said. This policy will be so easily abused, keep a worker on for a few months get a free bonus then fire them.
    Your thinking is two dimensional. By keeping people in work and generating an economic recovery in the fourth quarter there would be no reason to sack anyone in January. It's trying to jump start a jobs based virtuous circle recovery. It's a policy which is very cheap for what it is trying to achieve.
    There is a "stickiness" to jobs - and the structures within companies that employers form.

    The point about the furlough was to not break through that, by keeping people rather than firing them.

    This means a larger chance that the company can come back to something like normal operation, and faster. Which in turn helps the companies it deals with, owes money to etc.

    The bonus is to create a financial incentive (but not too large) to keep people through the initial pain as things start up.
    I'm both on (part time now) Furlough and have had to do the maths/rationale for furloughing people working for me. The £1,000 will be a welcome bonus for jobs that are going to be retained. But it won't in itself retain jobs. Industries which have been smashed by the Rona and aren't about to bounce back anywhere near Status Quo Ante won't be saved by an extra grand.

    The government can't do any more with the £ being pumped into the economy - its an awful lot. Many jobs have gone and aren't coming back regardless of what he does and its beyond wishful thinking that we're going back to how we were.
    Yes - its more a nudge than anything else. But 100K for keeping a 100 jobs is not nothing...

    It depends on how much those jobs are paying.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Chancellor Sunak has the most Star Wars name in British history. No wonder he's outmanoeuvring his opponents.

    I, for one, fully support his £200bn construction project. The sooner the Deeply Education And Theoretical Hyperspace Survey Transport Astronavigation Relay becomes operational the better.

    Very good!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    LadyG said:

    Should've included booze. Mistake

    I think that would have looked louche.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Sandpit said:

    How on earth does labour respond to this other than too little too late

    No wealth tax for the rich, money given to employers (spit!) and landlords (spit!) rather than to hard working people? How does the Chancellor propose to pay for all this largesse, how many valuable public services are going to have to be cut?

    But yeah, good luck to Starmer, not easy to oppose that one.
    Boris does not care about the deficit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    I don't want their energy policies mind, they're absolute mince.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    edited July 2020
    Stock market response a bit muted. Down a bit on yesterday close.

    I have 10 shares in my portfolio. The only ones not down today are my gold mine Centamin and YouGov.

    I had high hopes for Costain and Go-Ahead on infrastructure spending. Hardly mentioned today.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Scott_xP said:
    Who is paying for those and does the Lord High Executioner not see this as a threat to the boss?
    The Snake is definitely on maneuvers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Doesn’t a 1K bonus just incentivise companies to keep employees until January and then fire them

    No, the whole point is to keep people in employment and generate an economic recovery. If the news of the vaccine trials working are true then tiding employment over until January might be all we need.
    That doesn’t dispute what I said. This policy will be so easily abused, keep a worker on for a few months get a free bonus then fire them.
    Your thinking is two dimensional. By keeping people in work and generating an economic recovery in the fourth quarter there would be no reason to sack anyone in January. It's trying to jump start a jobs based virtuous circle recovery. It's a policy which is very cheap for what it is trying to achieve.
    There is a "stickiness" to jobs - and the structures within companies that employers form.

    The point about the furlough was to not break through that, by keeping people rather than firing them.

    This means a larger chance that the company can come back to something like normal operation, and faster. Which in turn helps the companies it deals with, owes money to etc.

    The bonus is to create a financial incentive (but not too large) to keep people through the initial pain as things start up.
    I'm both on (part time now) Furlough and have had to do the maths/rationale for furloughing people working for me. The £1,000 will be a welcome bonus for jobs that are going to be retained. But it won't in itself retain jobs. Industries which have been smashed by the Rona and aren't about to bounce back anywhere near Status Quo Ante won't be saved by an extra grand.

    The government can't do any more with the £ being pumped into the economy - its an awful lot. Many jobs have gone and aren't coming back regardless of what he does and its beyond wishful thinking that we're going back to how we were.
    Yes - its more a nudge than anything else. But 100K for keeping a 100 jobs is not nothing...

    It depends on how much those jobs are paying.

    Hence the minimum amount on the amount paid per month to the employee to qualify.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Doesn’t a 1K bonus just incentivise companies to keep employees until January and then fire them

    No, the whole point is to keep people in employment and generate an economic recovery. If the news of the vaccine trials working are true then tiding employment over until January might be all we need.
    That doesn’t dispute what I said. This policy will be so easily abused, keep a worker on for a few months get a free bonus then fire them.
    Your thinking is two dimensional. By keeping people in work and generating an economic recovery in the fourth quarter there would be no reason to sack anyone in January. It's trying to jump start a jobs based virtuous circle recovery. It's a policy which is very cheap for what it is trying to achieve.
    There is a "stickiness" to jobs - and the structures within companies that employers form.

    The point about the furlough was to not break through that, by keeping people rather than firing them.

    This means a larger chance that the company can come back to something like normal operation, and faster. Which in turn helps the companies it deals with, owes money to etc.

    The bonus is to create a financial incentive (but not too large) to keep people through the initial pain as things start up.
    I'm both on (part time now) Furlough and have had to do the maths/rationale for furloughing people working for me. The £1,000 will be a welcome bonus for jobs that are going to be retained. But it won't in itself retain jobs. Industries which have been smashed by the Rona and aren't about to bounce back anywhere near Status Quo Ante won't be saved by an extra grand.

    The government can't do any more with the £ being pumped into the economy - its an awful lot. Many jobs have gone and aren't coming back regardless of what he does and its beyond wishful thinking that we're going back to how we were.
    Yes - its more a nudge than anything else. But 100K for keeping a 100 jobs is not nothing...

    It depends on how much those jobs are paying.

    If those jobs are minimum wage then £1000 is a big incentive to get your staff back to work if there's work for people to do - and once people are back at work its easier to keep them in work.

    For companies that wanted to resume and wanted to bring their staff back but weren't sure they should this is a big incentive to try reopening and get through the Festive period at least.
  • Sunak popularity going to skyrocket. Easy to give away money
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited July 2020
    Barnesian said:

    Stock market response a bit muted. Down a bit on yesterday close.

    I have 10 shares in my portfolio. The only ones not down today are my gold mine Centamin and YouGov.

    I had high hopes for Costain and Go-Ahead on infrastructure spending. Hardly mentioned today.

    Glaxo payday tommorow :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Barnesian said:

    Stock market response a bit muted. Down a bit on yesterday close.

    I have 10 shares in my portfolio. The only ones not down today are my gold mine Centamin and YouGov.

    I had high hopes for Costain and Go-Ahead on infrastructure spending. Hardly mentioned today.

    Infrastructure isn't what is struggling now, hospitality is. This was all targetted on hospitality.

    I'd expect infrastructure announcements to be done at the actual budget.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    Its not possible to be worse than McDonnell. Have you forgotten than at the 2015 Autumn Statement he responded by reading from Mao's Little Red Book before throwing it at Osborne. Watch the clip - on the Labour side for the faces of Tom Watson and Chris Bryant, then of Osbrown and Cameron at the end.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2015/nov/25/the-chairman-mao-moment-mcdonnell-throws-the-little-red-book-at-osborne-video
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    LadyG said:

    Should've included booze. Mistake

    Yes. Given that my average restaurant bill is well over 50% alcohol, I don't anticipate making significant savings here. Hic.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Sunak popularity going to skyrocket. Easy to give away money

    Hes not given away much today has he? 2 for one meals Mon-Wed have been freely available for the last decade by typing in 2 for one restaurant vouchers into your search engine. Its hardly going to bring out many who fear catching the virus in restaurants.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    So once again Rishi (and Boris) surprise with their boldness and vision. Old fashioned Keynesians like me (the sort who worry about the books in the medium term whilst acknowledging the need to act in the short term) might wince just a tad as the credit card is splurged once again but no one can seriously argue (and I don't take anything Annalise says particularly seriously) that they are not going for it.

    Will it be enough? Will anything be enough? Who knows, but they are not going to die wondering.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited July 2020

    Chancellor Sunak has the most Star Wars name in British history. No wonder he's outmanoeuvring his opponents.

    I, for one, fully support his £200bn construction project. The sooner the Deeply Education And Theoretical Hyperspace Survey Transport Astronavigation Relay becomes operational the better.

    Very good!
    SenateThe House of Lords will object.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    Its not possible to be worse than McDonnell. Have you forgotten than at the 2015 Autumn Statement he responded by reading from Mao's Little Red Book before throwing it at Osborne. Watch the clip - on the Labour side for the faces of Tom Watson and Chris Bryant, then of Osbrown and Cameron at the end.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2015/nov/25/the-chairman-mao-moment-mcdonnell-throws-the-little-red-book-at-osborne-video
    Like him or not McDonnell was a heavyweight in the Commons, Dodds is not
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
  • Agree with comments on waiting to see how the economy turns out. Politically seems smart.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sunak popularity going to skyrocket. Easy to give away money

    Hes not given away much today has he? 2 for one meals Mon-Wed have been freely available for the last decade by typing in 2 for one restaurant vouchers into your search engine. Its hardly going to bring out many who fear catching the virus in restaurants.
    I denounced it as a gimmick but thinking about it for the restaurants this could be huge though. Customers paying two for one and with a VAT cut but the restaurant gets the bill paid in full. The latter probably matters more than the former for restaurants and ensures they can keep paying their staff.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    edited July 2020

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
    She should simply have said:

    Every breath you take and every move you make
    Every bond you break, every step you take, I'll be watching you
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    The Green Homes Grant might be the best of todays policy initiatives? Not sure how it will work in practice but like the intent.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    So is takeaway food still being taxed at 20%? Is it only sit-down meals taxed at 5%?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Sunak popularity going to skyrocket. Easy to give away money

    Hes not given away much today has he? 2 for one meals Mon-Wed have been freely available for the last decade by typing in 2 for one restaurant vouchers into your search engine. Its hardly going to bring out many who fear catching the virus in restaurants.
    I denounced it as a gimmick but thinking about it for the restaurants this could be huge though. Customers paying two for one and with a VAT cut but the restaurant gets the bill paid in full. The latter probably matters more than the former for restaurants and ensures they can keep paying their staff.
    Mon-Wed eating out at restaurants is mostly office workers and tourists. Neither are around. I wouldnt be surprised if most restaurants in the country choose not to be open Mon-Wed in August anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited July 2020
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Well if Boris gets a post Brexit trade deal with the EU that still ends free movement it will of course be a triumph and he will deserve to be re elected in 2024 but it is you saying that is certain not me
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it (don't know about others).

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    WTO is what happens if we don't capitulate to reality. Sadly this government is made up of lunatics who don't actually understand how things like the Dover - Calais crossing work. Dismissing it as not a possibility is hope against hope - it IS a possibility.

    Yes I know that the WTO have already laughed in our face. I know that if we got a border built and staffed and a computer system running in impossible time that it would be a disaster for business and an even bigger disaster if they don't. But this lot don't know the detail or care. Bluster will prevail because this is ENGLAND.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    Chancellor Sunak has the most Star Wars name in British history. No wonder he's outmanoeuvring his opponents.

    I, for one, fully support his £200bn construction project. The sooner the Deeply Education And Theoretical Hyperspace Survey Transport Astronavigation Relay becomes operational the better.

    I hope the government has given you a grant for that acronym. A classic along the lines of Red Dwarf's Committee for the Liberation and Integration of Terrifying Organisms and their Rehabilitation Into Society
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    Chancellor Sunak has the most Star Wars name in British history. No wonder he's outmanoeuvring his opponents.

    I, for one, fully support his £200bn construction project. The sooner the Deeply Education And Theoretical Hyperspace Survey Transport Astronavigation Relay becomes operational the better.

    I hope the government has given you a grant for that acronym. A classic along the lines of Red Dwarf's Committee for the Liberation and Integration of Terrifying Organisms and their Rehabilitation Into Society
    Or Naked Gun's Society for More Coal Energy, Society of Petroleum Industry Leaders, or the Key Atomic Benefits Office Of Mankind...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    How on earth does labour respond to this other than too little too late

    They don't really need to. Before long the popular bit of handing out money to all and sundry is going to have to end. Of course everybody is gong to be delighted with their handouts but that really is the easy bit. Sunak is going to be judged on what he does to prevent the country going bankrupt. I don't disagree with much of what he is doing but he is really just postponing judgement day.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sunak popularity going to skyrocket. Easy to give away money

    Hes not given away much today has he? 2 for one meals Mon-Wed have been freely available for the last decade by typing in 2 for one restaurant vouchers into your search engine. Its hardly going to bring out many who fear catching the virus in restaurants.
    I denounced it as a gimmick but thinking about it for the restaurants this could be huge though. Customers paying two for one and with a VAT cut but the restaurant gets the bill paid in full. The latter probably matters more than the former for restaurants and ensures they can keep paying their staff.
    Mon-Wed eating out at restaurants is mostly office workers and tourists. Neither are around. I wouldnt be surprised if most restaurants in the country choose not to be open Mon-Wed in August anyway.
    Quite possibly right.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    No VAT cut on beer and wine seems like the biggest error to me, probably stems from having a teetotaller chancellor.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    I don't even know who the shadow chancellor is... hardly heard a peep.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it (don't know about others).

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    WTO is what happens if we don't capitulate to reality. Sadly this government is made up of lunatics who don't actually understand how things like the Dover - Calais crossing work. Dismissing it as not a possibility is hope against hope - it IS a possibility.

    Yes I know that the WTO have already laughed in our face. I know that if we got a border built and staffed and a computer system running in impossible time that it would be a disaster for business and an even bigger disaster if they don't. But this lot don't know the detail or care. Bluster will prevail because this is ENGLAND.
    I totally get where you're coming from with that - nevertheless my reading of the politics of the situation is that WTO is a non-starter. OK, not completely impossible, of course not, but I would assign it no higher than a 10% chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    edited July 2020

    The Green Homes Grant might be the best of todays policy initiatives? Not sure how it will work in practice but like the intent.

    It looks like a return to something similar to the Ed Milliband ECO scheme but funded by Govt not Energy Companies.

    It is good for a rapid start that it is short term, and that homeowners and LLs are targeted, and that owners will have to put in significant cash.

    What is missing is a big stick - +3% higher stamp duty on poor quality homes.

    For me this will probably trigger 2 lots of double glazing upgrades, and 2-3 new boilers. That will bring my houses fully up to expected 2030 standards.

    And we need a similar package every year, as this will only be enough to do about 2-3% of the housing stock, and only a % of necessarily measures for those.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    I don't even know who the shadow chancellor is... hardly heard a peep.
    I wonder why you bother to post at all, every post shows you to be a real moron
  • humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
    I gave up too. She was going on about the virus response, which is nothing to do with the Chancellor. Of course, it is always tough for a shadow to respond on the hoof to a Government policy statement,
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    No VAT cut on beer and wine seems like the biggest error to me, probably stems from having a teetotaller chancellor.

    Not wanting to piss off the muslim vote?

    Not wanting, in the next heatwave, to have it pointed out that the general non-social-distanced mayhem was partly fuelled by government sponsored three-day happy hours?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it?

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    Well if Boris gets a post Brexit trade deal with the EU that still ends free movement it will of course be a triumph and he will deserve to be re elected in 2024 but it is you saying that is certain not me
    I'm not predicting all the details of the deal - that's too much to ask of me - I'm just saying "WTO" can be ruled out.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment Sunak is popular for helping businesses with the furlough scheme.

    However the test for him will come in December, if Boris ends the transition period and goes to WTO terms and Sunak does not resign he will lose popularity with Remain voters, if however he does resign if no deal is agreed with the EU then he will lose popularity with the Tory membership who will elect the next leader and want a hard Brexit.

    His prospects therefore depend on there being a deal with the EU but that also means Boris will probably remain popular enough to stay PM anyway

    I wish people would stop pretending WTO is a possibility. It isn't. Bigging it up just plays into Johnson's hands - which is perhaps your motive for doing it (don't know about others).

    It allows Johnson to trumpet the inevitable close alignment deal as a victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Also to benefit from relief that something which was never going to happen is not going to happen.
    WTO is what happens if we don't capitulate to reality. Sadly this government is made up of lunatics who don't actually understand how things like the Dover - Calais crossing work. Dismissing it as not a possibility is hope against hope - it IS a possibility.

    Yes I know that the WTO have already laughed in our face. I know that if we got a border built and staffed and a computer system running in impossible time that it would be a disaster for business and an even bigger disaster if they don't. But this lot don't know the detail or care. Bluster will prevail because this is ENGLAND.
    I totally get where you're coming from with that - nevertheless my reading of the politics of the situation is that WTO is a non-starter. OK, not completely impossible, of course not, but I would assign it no higher than a 10% chance.
    I've said repeatedly that I expect a massive UK climbdown announced as a victory, so we're in agreement. But the problem with wazzocks is that they're smelling the farts and still thinking its fresh cut grass. The risk of Barniwoop and his team heading home to Brussels because the idiots have dug in too far is real and the consequence is that we go splat on New Years Day. Those of us not dead from the Rona by then anyway.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    That has to go on a list.
    Most deranged view points ever?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
    I gave up too. She was going on about the virus response, which is nothing to do with the Chancellor. Of course, it is always tough for a shadow to respond on the hoof to a Government policy statement,
    Which is why she shouldnt even have tried, Budget responses are really tough. Very few of us know who she is, even amongst political anoraks, so a shorter, lighter introduction would have been good.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
    I gave up too. She was going on about the virus response, which is nothing to do with the Chancellor. Of course, it is always tough for a shadow to respond on the hoof to a Government policy statement,
    I thought she sounded ok. The scotch accent is a plus, the banks all have Scottish call centres because people find the accent trustworthy on financial matters.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    VAT on hospitality and leisure industry to 5%

    Couldn't do that while we were still in the EU.
    A month ago: "Calls for UK to copy Germany with VAT cut and stimulus"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/04/germany-launches-130bn-stimulus-kickstart-economy/
    Yep. Just copy Germany. That's the way.

    Wonder if we'll get the more difficult stuff too like the German Green New Deal?
    German health system would be useful, if the UK didn't treat their own as if it were a religion.
    Yes we'll have that too. But they spend more remember.
    Indeed they do, although the numbers are dependent on many other factors.
    Tax breaks at 40% for private insurance in the UK would have the same effect on spending, that would be a good starting point.
    An insurance model would be fine - so long as the state pays if you can't afford it. I'm far more sanguine about private healthcare than I am about private schools.
    Private schools also offer scholarships and bursaries
    I think the amount they fund is pretty much a billion a year.

    I still don't understand people with visceral opposition to independent schools.

    'We support high standards, and we're going to do it by destroying the places with the greatest diversity and the highest standards'.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited July 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
    I gave up too. She was going on about the virus response, which is nothing to do with the Chancellor. Of course, it is always tough for a shadow to respond on the hoof to a Government policy statement,
    I thought she sounded ok. The scotch accent is a plus, the banks all have Scottish call centres because people find the accent trustworthy on financial matters.
    LOL RBS anyone? or even HBOS...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    Labour has a better leader than Corbyn now but a worse Shadow Chancellor than McDonnell (even though personally as a Tory I would prefer Dodds)
    McDonnell, the best Chancellor we nearly but never had?

    Certainly a case can be made.
    I don't even know who the shadow chancellor is... hardly heard a peep.
    I wonder why you bother to post at all, every post shows you to be a real moron
    Thanks CHB.. I refer you or someone else posting as you at the time of the GE pretending to be a newcomer..
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    humbugger said:

    Dodds performance very poor, and Sunak has demolished it in response.

    She gave a long complicated speech that kind of droned on. I switched off. I think all she should have tried to do today is introduce herself to the nation and potential voters rather than get into detail.
    I gave up too. She was going on about the virus response, which is nothing to do with the Chancellor. Of course, it is always tough for a shadow to respond on the hoof to a Government policy statement,
    I thought she sounded ok. The scotch accent is a plus, the banks all have Scottish call centres because people find the accent trustworthy on financial matters.
    LOL RBS anyone? or even HBOS...
    How is that a point?

    I don't agree with everything my learned friend CHB posts, but...
This discussion has been closed.