Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
What PB needs is a 'That's the stupidest thing I've ever read, you deserve to be force fed Hawaiian pizzas for the rest of your life' button.
Am appalled by your brazen anti-Polynesian prejudice.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
Isn't that called the Like button?
No the like button is used by the PB Tory clique to continue their love in, post anything against the hive mind and you get off topic or spam
Damn it, all those likes I've given to comments that amused or interested me gone to waste, apparently it was in service of a darker goal the entire time without me even knowing it.
In all seriousness I am surprised with all the attacks on Boris and the natural fear of people not wanting to put themselves at risk that crossover has not happened yet
To be fair releasing lockdown was always going to a big moment and as big a political decision
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
Isn't that called the Like button?
No the like button is used by the PB Tory clique to continue their love in, post anything against the hive mind and you get off topic or spam
Damn it, all those likes I've given to comments that amused or interested me gone to waste, apparently it was in service of a darker goal the entire time without me even knowing it.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
I'm assuming that it's the product of population growth in urban cores and the substantial Tory advances in the Red Wall constituencies, rendering boundary changes much less advantageous to the Conservatives than they would've been previously.
Although many of the places which have been trending Conservative have tended to be the ones increasing in population and affluence.
It is perhaps especially complicated this time and certainly no 'one size fits all' template.
Almost every recent poll has had the Labour share up by the same amount as the drop in the LD share, compared to the general election. Tonight's poll is no exception.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
What PB needs is a 'That's the stupidest thing I've ever read, you deserve to be force fed Hawaiian pizzas for the rest of your life' button.
You know a lot of the Texas polls are showing Biden winning...
re buttons, all I can say is that re: off topic PBers have been VERY kind to me.
Never hit-off topic except one I think by accident looking for quote. Tap like sporadically, usually when a post makes me laugh out loud, though often forget.
Howe meaningful are these button anyway. Does Mgmt get any benefit? Or are they just a way to quantify / monetize / justify on somebody's spreadsheet?
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
I'm assuming that it's the product of population growth in urban cores and the substantial Tory advances in the Red Wall constituencies, rendering boundary changes much less advantageous to the Conservatives than they would've been previously.
Although many of the places which have been trending Conservative have tended to be the ones increasing in population and affluence.
It is perhaps especially complicated this time and certainly no 'one size fits all' template.
True. But does seem to mean that the long-term trend of demographic change resulting in significant Conservative seat gains when redistrubution finally rolls around, is no longer operative. For reasons discussed this & other posts.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
I'm assuming that it's the product of population growth in urban cores and the substantial Tory advances in the Red Wall constituencies, rendering boundary changes much less advantageous to the Conservatives than they would've been previously.
Although many of the places which have been trending Conservative have tended to be the ones increasing in population and affluence.
It is perhaps especially complicated this time and certainly no 'one size fits all' template.
Yes. The previous rule pre boundary review was Tory seat=big electorate. Labour seat=small electorate. That doesn't seem to be universal at all this time. Even in London it is the inner boroughs which will gain at the expense of the Outer ones. There are enough electors for an entire new seat in Tower Hamlets/Newham area and another one in Lambeth/Southwark for example.
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
Biden is +6 in Penn on last poll (1st July)
Good news, but it needs to stay +6.
Re PA & rest of US, am thinking that upcoming national conventions are going to be VERY important. Just like in 1992. And VERY different.
Republican convention will be like going to PT Barnum 3-ring circus and waiting for the tent to catch on fire.
Big draw for Democratic convention will be Biden's VP pick as well as Uncle Joe's acceptance speech.
CNN: A global study has found strong evidence that a new form of the coronavirus has spread from Europe to the US. The new mutation makes the virus more likely to infect people but does not seem to make them any sicker than earlier variations of the virus, an international team of researchers reported Thursday.
"It is now the dominant form infecting people," Erica Ollmann Saphire of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology and the Coronavirus Immunotherapy Consortium, who worked on the study, told CNN. "This is now the virus."
No change here. Take away fish and chips (delivered). I'm not going anywhere near a pub yet.
Pub attendance most likely a product of (a) what proportion of the local population is very anxious (as distinct from merely concerned by, or disinterested in, the virus) and (b) local conditions.
On the one hand, the Rook household is concerned about the virus (we're not particularly old, but nonetheless we both take it seriously and one of us is asthmatic.) On the other, we think it likely that the local businesses will have done their work to bring in table service, space everybody apart and so on to keep risk to a minimum; and we also suspect that the prevalence of the virus in this locality is, in any event, very low. Indeed, data helpfully collated and published by @Malmesbury earlier today suggests that a grand total of four new cases have been confirmed by test in the last fortnight in the whole district (population: about 135,000.) Within that, our town is small-ish, low density, surrounded by countryside for at least ten miles in every direction and has experienced no significant outbreak of the illness at any point. Nobody I know first hand has had Covid confirmed by test or even suspects that they might have had it.
Thus, if you have been behaving pretty cautiously since lockdown began, there's hardly any disease left in circulation and the businesses have been doing their best to Covid proof themselves, then it might not be considered excessively blase to regard now as a good time to go out and live a little. Because, realistically, it's not going to get that much safer for us to do that until an effective vaccine or cure is developed, and that could take many years.
As it happens we're not big drinkers and decided not to avail ourselves of the facilities today, but we are planning to take the train up to our local city (Cambridge, where confirmed cases are also very low) to do some shopping next Saturday, and then go to our local hotel that evening for dinner. The trip to Cambridge will be the first time that either of us has left town since March.
Needless to say, if you or anyone else is more anxious, more vulnerable or in an area where the disease is in more general circulation then you/they might still need a bit more persuading to get out and about and do stuff.
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
Biden is +6 in Penn on last poll (1st July)
Good news, but it needs to stay +6.
Re PA & rest of US, am thinking that upcoming national conventions are going to be VERY important. Just like in 1992. And VERY different.
Republican convention will be like going to PT Barnum 3-ring circus and waiting for the tent to catch on fire.
Big draw for Democratic convention will be Biden's VP pick as well as Uncle Joe's acceptance speech.
SeaShanty I know you are local to it. Is the fact that Biden is past it a factor?
The W.H.O. suspends two drug studies, including one on hydroxychloroquine, over possible safety issues.
The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus. The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.
Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.
The W.H.O. suspends two drug studies, including one on hydroxychloroquine, over possible safety issues.
The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus. The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.
Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.
In movie "1776" the Continental Congress has just voted to postpone debate on Independence pending declaration stating arguments & grounds for separation. Committee appointed to draft same, including Dr. Franklin, John Adams and several others; but Virginian chosen unable to serve (he just got elected VA Governor) so place filled by - Thomas Jefferson.
The W.H.O. suspends two drug studies, including one on hydroxychloroquine, over possible safety issues.
The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus. The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.
Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.
No change here. Take away fish and chips (delivered). I'm not going anywhere near a pub yet.
Pub attendance most likely a product of (a) what proportion of the local population is very anxious (as distinct from merely concerned by, or disinterested in, the virus) and (b) local conditions.
On the one hand, the Rook household is concerned about the virus (we're not particularly old, but nonetheless we both take it seriously and one of us is asthmatic.) On the other, we think it likely that the local businesses will have done their work to bring in table service, space everybody apart and so on to keep risk to a minimum; and we also suspect that the prevalence of the virus in this locality is, in any event, very low. Indeed, data helpfully collated and published by @Malmesbury earlier today suggests that a grand total of four new cases have been confirmed by test in the last fortnight in the whole district (population: about 135,000.) Within that, our town is small-ish, low density, surrounded by countryside for at least ten miles in every direction and has experienced no significant outbreak of the illness at any point. Nobody I know first hand has had Covid confirmed by test or even suspects that they might have had it.
Thus, if you have been behaving pretty cautiously since lockdown began, there's hardly any disease left in circulation and the businesses have been doing their best to Covid proof themselves, then it might not be considered excessively blase to regard now as a good time to go out and live a little. Because, realistically, it's not going to get that much safer for us to do that until an effective vaccine or cure is developed, and that could take many years.
As it happens we're not big drinkers and decided not to avail ourselves of the facilities today, but we are planning to take the train up to our local city (Cambridge, where confirmed cases are also very low) to do some shopping next Saturday, and then go to our local hotel that evening for dinner. The trip to Cambridge will be the first time that either of us has left town since March.
Needless to say, if you or anyone else is more anxious, more vulnerable or in an area where the disease is in more general circulation then you/they might still need a bit more persuading to get out and about and do stuff.
The thing which concerns me is the possibility of having to self-isolate if some other person in a pub etc is infected.
Not so much for health reasons but rather it wouldn't look good for work purposes.
In movie "1776" the Continental Congress has just voted to postpone debate on Independence pending declaration stating arguments & grounds for separation. Committee appointed to draft same, including Dr. Franklin, John Adams and several others; but Virginian chosen unable to serve (he just got elected VA Governor) so place filled by - Thomas Jefferson.
I prefer playing Assassins Creed 3 to learn about American Revolutionary history
The W.H.O. suspends two drug studies, including one on hydroxychloroquine, over possible safety issues.
The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus. The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.
Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.
Rugby star Gareth Cooper's ex-wife has been ordered to pay back just £1 after swindling him out of £1m.
Ex-British and Irish Lions player Mr Cooper, 41, set up two gyms and freight businesses to be run by Debra Leyshon.
But Leyshon, 41, fraudulently obtained mortgages and loans in her husband's name while telling Mr Cooper the struggling business was "thriving".
She also re-mortgaged the family home and four other properties, and Mr Cooper was bankrupted by the con.
The former Wales international previously said his trust in others had been "destroyed".
Leyshon was given a two-year suspended sentence after pleading guilty to 13 counts of fraud - totalling more than £1m.
Her business partner Simon Thomas, 47, and associate Mark Lee also received suspended sentences after admitting fraud.
On Friday, a Proceeds of Crime Act (POCA) hearing at Cardiff Crown Court was told Leyshon, from Bridgend, had benefitted to the tune of £371,271 and Thomas, from Cowbridge, £161,081.
But Judge David Wynn Morgan ordered both to pay back just a £1 nominal sum within the next 28 days.
No change here. Take away fish and chips (delivered). I'm not going anywhere near a pub yet.
Pub attendance most likely a product of (a) what proportion of the local population is very anxious (as distinct from merely concerned by, or disinterested in, the virus) and (b) local conditions.
On the one hand, the Rook household is concerned about the virus (we're not particularly old, but nonetheless we both take it seriously and one of us is asthmatic.) On the other, we think it likely that the local businesses will have done their work to bring in table service, space everybody apart and so on to keep risk to a minimum; and we also suspect that the prevalence of the virus in this locality is, in any event, very low. Indeed, data helpfully collated and published by @Malmesbury earlier today suggests that a grand total of four new cases have been confirmed by test in the last fortnight in the whole district (population: about 135,000.) Within that, our town is small-ish, low density, surrounded by countryside for at least ten miles in every direction and has experienced no significant outbreak of the illness at any point. Nobody I know first hand has had Covid confirmed by test or even suspects that they might have had it.
Thus, if you have been behaving pretty cautiously since lockdown began, there's hardly any disease left in circulation and the businesses have been doing their best to Covid proof themselves, then it might not be considered excessively blase to regard now as a good time to go out and live a little. Because, realistically, it's not going to get that much safer for us to do that until an effective vaccine or cure is developed, and that could take many years.
As it happens we're not big drinkers and decided not to avail ourselves of the facilities today, but we are planning to take the train up to our local city (Cambridge, where confirmed cases are also very low) to do some shopping next Saturday, and then go to our local hotel that evening for dinner. The trip to Cambridge will be the first time that either of us has left town since March.
Needless to say, if you or anyone else is more anxious, more vulnerable or in an area where the disease is in more general circulation then you/they might still need a bit more persuading to get out and about and do stuff.
The thing which concerns me is the possibility of having to self-isolate if some other person in a pub etc is infected.
Not so much for health reasons but rather it wouldn't look good for work purposes.
Why? If the test and trace people tell you to go and self-isolate than you go and self-isolate. Notwithstanding the fact that it is unreasonable for your employer to expect you to live in an hermetically-sealed bubble for the rest of your natural life, you do not have to explain to them the circumstances surrounding your need to self-isolate, only that you have been advised to do so.
Certainly my employer has issued instructions that anybody who has been told to self-isolate is to stay the hell away and is liable to end up on a disciplinary if they don't. They've issued no instructions about what we are and are not allowed to get up to in our own time.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
I'm assuming that it's the product of population growth in urban cores and the substantial Tory advances in the Red Wall constituencies, rendering boundary changes much less advantageous to the Conservatives than they would've been previously.
Although many of the places which have been trending Conservative have tended to be the ones increasing in population and affluence.
It is perhaps especially complicated this time and certainly no 'one size fits all' template.
Yes. The previous rule pre boundary review was Tory seat=big electorate. Labour seat=small electorate. That doesn't seem to be universal at all this time. Even in London it is the inner boroughs which will gain at the expense of the Outer ones. There are enough electors for an entire new seat in Tower Hamlets/Newham area and another one in Lambeth/Southwark for example.
Tory areas will be better at resisting house building than Labour areas.
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
Biden is +6 in Penn on last poll (1st July)
Good news, but it needs to stay +6.
Re PA & rest of US, am thinking that upcoming national conventions are going to be VERY important. Just like in 1992. And VERY different.
Republican convention will be like going to PT Barnum 3-ring circus and waiting for the tent to catch on fire.
Big draw for Democratic convention will be Biden's VP pick as well as Uncle Joe's acceptance speech.
SeaShanty I know you are local to it. Is the fact that Biden is past it a factor?
Only when he makes a gaffe, which he's bound to do occasionally cause that's just our Joe, been doing it since Neil Kinnock's day if you recall. Fact that he's also a geezer compounds the issue. But then Trumpsky ain't no spring chicken - and personally when forced to choose will take a malapropist over a sociopath any day.
Think real question will NOT be if Biden will bungle; we already know the answer. Real question, is, will he do it in an especially bad way or very inopportune moment - say a serous mis-statement in a debate (such as Gerald Ford's assertion that Poland was NOT under Soviet domination in 1976). OR standing on a (virtual of course) live stage and blanking out.
However, please note our Joe has a record of rising to the occasion and meeting the challenge. THIS is the biggest challenge of his life, and he will give it everything he's got in him - and then some.
Yes, the strain will be tremendous. But this is a man who won an amazing upset victory to become senator - only to have his wife and daughter die tragically and nearly break him (just like the same thing nearly broke Theodore Roosevelt). Who saw his first attempt for the presidency blow up thanks to his own folly, yet remained a powerful, effective US Senator. Who had another child, a son who was a rising star in politics, died young from illness.
You can judge Joe Biden anyway you like. But weak? Don't bet on it.
No change here. Take away fish and chips (delivered). I'm not going anywhere near a pub yet.
Pub attendance most likely a product of (a) what proportion of the local population is very anxious (as distinct from merely concerned by, or disinterested in, the virus) and (b) local conditions.
On the one hand, the Rook household is concerned about the virus (we're not particularly old, but nonetheless we both take it seriously and one of us is asthmatic.) On the other, we think it likely that the local businesses will have done their work to bring in table service, space everybody apart and so on to keep risk to a minimum; and we also suspect that the prevalence of the virus in this locality is, in any event, very low. Indeed, data helpfully collated and published by @Malmesbury earlier today suggests that a grand total of four new cases have been confirmed by test in the last fortnight in the whole district (population: about 135,000.) Within that, our town is small-ish, low density, surrounded by countryside for at least ten miles in every direction and has experienced no significant outbreak of the illness at any point. Nobody I know first hand has had Covid confirmed by test or even suspects that they might have had it.
Thus, if you have been behaving pretty cautiously since lockdown began, there's hardly any disease left in circulation and the businesses have been doing their best to Covid proof themselves, then it might not be considered excessively blase to regard now as a good time to go out and live a little. Because, realistically, it's not going to get that much safer for us to do that until an effective vaccine or cure is developed, and that could take many years.
As it happens we're not big drinkers and decided not to avail ourselves of the facilities today, but we are planning to take the train up to our local city (Cambridge, where confirmed cases are also very low) to do some shopping next Saturday, and then go to our local hotel that evening for dinner. The trip to Cambridge will be the first time that either of us has left town since March.
Needless to say, if you or anyone else is more anxious, more vulnerable or in an area where the disease is in more general circulation then you/they might still need a bit more persuading to get out and about and do stuff.
The thing which concerns me is the possibility of having to self-isolate if some other person in a pub etc is infected.
Not so much for health reasons but rather it wouldn't look good for work purposes.
Why? If the test and trace people tell you to go and self-isolate than you go and self-isolate. Notwithstanding the fact that it is unreasonable for your employer to expect you to live in an hermetically-sealed bubble for the rest of your natural life, you do not have to explain to them the circumstances surrounding your need to self-isolate, only that you have been advised to do so.
Certainly my employer has issued instructions that anybody who has been told to self-isolate is to stay the hell away and is liable to end up on a disciplinary if they don't. They've issued no instructions about what we are and are not allowed to get up to in our own time.
Nevertheless many employers will not be impressed if someone goes off for a fortnight because they've visited a pub.
And if it happens more than one once even less so.
There's also the aspect that I would feel bad about inconveniencing both the company and the people I work with.
In movie "1776" the Continental Congress has just voted to postpone debate on Independence pending declaration stating arguments & grounds for separation. Committee appointed to draft same, including Dr. Franklin, John Adams and several others; but Virginian chosen unable to serve (he just got elected VA Governor) so place filled by - Thomas Jefferson.
I prefer playing Assassins Creed 3 to learn about American Revolutionary history
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
Biden is +6 in Penn on last poll (1st July)
Good news, but it needs to stay +6.
Re PA & rest of US, am thinking that upcoming national conventions are going to be VERY important. Just like in 1992. And VERY different.
Republican convention will be like going to PT Barnum 3-ring circus and waiting for the tent to catch on fire.
Big draw for Democratic convention will be Biden's VP pick as well as Uncle Joe's acceptance speech.
SeaShanty I know you are local to it. Is the fact that Biden is past it a factor?
Only when he makes a gaffe, which he's bound to do occasionally cause that's just our Joe, been doing it since Neil Kinnock's day if you recall. Fact that he's also a geezer compounds the issue. But then Trumpsky ain't no spring chicken - and personally when forced to choose will take a malapropist over a sociopath any day.
Think real question will NOT be if Biden will bungle; we already know the answer. Real question, is, will he do it in an especially bad way or very inopportune moment - say a serous mis-statement in a debate (such as Gerald Ford's assertion that Poland was NOT under Soviet domination in 1976). OR standing on a (virtual of course) live stage and blanking out.
However, please note our Joe has a record of rising to the occasion and meeting the challenge. THIS is the biggest challenge of his life, and he will give it everything he's got in him - and then some.
Yes, the strain will be tremendous. But this is a man who won an amazing upset victory to become senator - only to have his wife and daughter die tragically and nearly break him (just like the same thing nearly broke Theodore Roosevelt). Who saw his first attempt for the presidency blow up thanks to his own folly, yet remained a powerful, effective US Senator. Who had another child, a son who was a rising star in politics, died young from illness.
You can judge Joe Biden anyway you like. But weak? Don't bet on it.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
Isn't that called the Like button?
No the like button is used by the PB Tory clique to continue their love in, post anything against the hive mind and you get off topic or spam
I have noticed that too. A really dreary comment on how rubbish Starmer is, or how marvellous the Tories are gets multiple likes from the same names.
Anyway, back on topic, Biden can handle it despite his age.
The W.H.O. suspends two drug studies, including one on hydroxychloroquine, over possible safety issues.
The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus. The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.
Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.
Comments
I have not posted it here because in light of recent revelations it is genuinely creepy. I think it was far closer to the knuckle than they realised.
To be fair releasing lockdown was always going to a big moment and as big a political decision
I am glad I did not have to make it
It is perhaps especially complicated this time and certainly no 'one size fits all' template.
I don't know if its possible to hide the Off Topic behind the Flag button so it isn't caught by accident?
Never hit-off topic except one I think by accident looking for quote. Tap like sporadically, usually when a post makes me laugh out loud, though often forget.
Howe meaningful are these button anyway. Does Mgmt get any benefit? Or are they just a way to quantify / monetize / justify on somebody's spreadsheet?
Couldn't make out his reply, but it was certainly robust!
There are enough electors for an entire new seat in Tower Hamlets/Newham area and another one in Lambeth/Southwark for example.
Republican convention will be like going to PT Barnum 3-ring circus and waiting for the tent to catch on fire.
Big draw for Democratic convention will be Biden's VP pick as well as Uncle Joe's acceptance speech.
"It is now the dominant form infecting people," Erica Ollmann Saphire of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology and the Coronavirus Immunotherapy Consortium, who worked on the study, told CNN. "This is now the virus."
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1279479774847668225?s=20
On the one hand, the Rook household is concerned about the virus (we're not particularly old, but nonetheless we both take it seriously and one of us is asthmatic.) On the other, we think it likely that the local businesses will have done their work to bring in table service, space everybody apart and so on to keep risk to a minimum; and we also suspect that the prevalence of the virus in this locality is, in any event, very low. Indeed, data helpfully collated and published by @Malmesbury earlier today suggests that a grand total of four new cases have been confirmed by test in the last fortnight in the whole district (population: about 135,000.) Within that, our town is small-ish, low density, surrounded by countryside for at least ten miles in every direction and has experienced no significant outbreak of the illness at any point. Nobody I know first hand has had Covid confirmed by test or even suspects that they might have had it.
Thus, if you have been behaving pretty cautiously since lockdown began, there's hardly any disease left in circulation and the businesses have been doing their best to Covid proof themselves, then it might not be considered excessively blase to regard now as a good time to go out and live a little. Because, realistically, it's not going to get that much safer for us to do that until an effective vaccine or cure is developed, and that could take many years.
As it happens we're not big drinkers and decided not to avail ourselves of the facilities today, but we are planning to take the train up to our local city (Cambridge, where confirmed cases are also very low) to do some shopping next Saturday, and then go to our local hotel that evening for dinner. The trip to Cambridge will be the first time that either of us has left town since March.
Needless to say, if you or anyone else is more anxious, more vulnerable or in an area where the disease is in more general circulation then you/they might still need a bit more persuading to get out and about and do stuff.
The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus.
The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.
Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu#link-3cb9424a
Not so much for health reasons but rather it wouldn't look good for work purposes.
https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/statement-from-the-chief-investigators-of-the-randomised-evaluation-of-covid-19-therapy-recovery-trial-on-hydroxychloroquine-5-june-2020-no-clinical-benefit-from-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-in-hospitalised-patients-with-covid-19
Rugby star Gareth Cooper's ex-wife has been ordered to pay back just £1 after swindling him out of £1m.
Ex-British and Irish Lions player Mr Cooper, 41, set up two gyms and freight businesses to be run by Debra Leyshon.
But Leyshon, 41, fraudulently obtained mortgages and loans in her husband's name while telling Mr Cooper the struggling business was "thriving".
She also re-mortgaged the family home and four other properties, and Mr Cooper was bankrupted by the con.
The former Wales international previously said his trust in others had been "destroyed".
Leyshon was given a two-year suspended sentence after pleading guilty to 13 counts of fraud - totalling more than £1m.
Her business partner Simon Thomas, 47, and associate Mark Lee also received suspended sentences after admitting fraud.
On Friday, a Proceeds of Crime Act (POCA) hearing at Cardiff Crown Court was told Leyshon, from Bridgend, had benefitted to the tune of £371,271 and Thomas, from Cowbridge, £161,081.
But Judge David Wynn Morgan ordered both to pay back just a £1 nominal sum within the next 28 days.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53292781
Certainly my employer has issued instructions that anybody who has been told to self-isolate is to stay the hell away and is liable to end up on a disciplinary if they don't. They've issued no instructions about what we are and are not allowed to get up to in our own time.
Think real question will NOT be if Biden will bungle; we already know the answer. Real question, is, will he do it in an especially bad way or very inopportune moment - say a serous mis-statement in a debate (such as Gerald Ford's assertion that Poland was NOT under Soviet domination in 1976). OR standing on a (virtual of course) live stage and blanking out.
However, please note our Joe has a record of rising to the occasion and meeting the challenge. THIS is the biggest challenge of his life, and he will give it everything he's got in him - and then some.
Yes, the strain will be tremendous. But this is a man who won an amazing upset victory to become senator - only to have his wife and daughter die tragically and nearly break him (just like the same thing nearly broke Theodore Roosevelt). Who saw his first attempt for the presidency blow up thanks to his own folly, yet remained a powerful, effective US Senator. Who had another child, a son who was a rising star in politics, died young from illness.
You can judge Joe Biden anyway you like. But weak? Don't bet on it.
And if it happens more than one once even less so.
There's also the aspect that I would feel bad about inconveniencing both the company and the people I work with.
And yes like you I remember Kinnock!
Anyway, back on topic, Biden can handle it despite his age.
So did Joe - too damn well. Letter-perfect in fact!
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html
Then again, they have had to put out a plea for people to stop microwaving library books to avoid the virus:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/04/us/dont-microwave-your-library-books-trnd/index.html