LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Sinn Fein would come to the Conservative Party's rescue by continuing their abstentionism at Westminster.
Although the DUP might put Labour in power as revenge for Boris Johnson putting a border down the Irish Sea.
See above, according to Flavible without DUP anti-Tories is 321, which is a technical majority? DUP would give a few seats.
Biggest mess of a Parliament for decades
LD aren't anti-Tories though.
May's government wasn't a majority government, even with only one party needed to rely upon for confidence and supply. Even if that happened it'd be a rainbow based minority government.
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer
Yes brutal but quite effective in that it depicts a situation most Americans know about in real life - but instead of pressing #1 to speak to an operator about your bank bill (let's say), it's about a crime
Michelle Lujan Grisham is 48 on BF.
I think it was after your tip that I put a little nibble on Grisham.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer
I thought "read my lips, no new taxes" was the main reason George HW Bush won in 1988.
As soon as he reneged on that pledge, he was in serious trouble.
Willie Horton was a killer in more ways than one, alright.
But before that ad saw the light of day (or at least hit millions of TV screens) Dukakis had already screwed himself royally by failing to answer - effectively or at all - Bush's attack upon him for his opposition to US constitutional amendment to outlaw burning the American Flag. Note that no such amendment was ever adopted BUT that was not the point.
Then Dukakis doubled down - by gobble-de-gooking when asked during debate whether he'd approve of death penalty if his own wife was murdered. AND having himself riding around on top of a big US Army tank with a ridiculous-looking helmet. All three of these unforced errors - not counting Wille Horton - were grist for the Bush-Quayle campaign media blitz.
BTW, re: VP - Dan Quayle is good example of how unimportant a VP pick, even a clearly bad one, can be to the actual voting result. From the moment that Bush announced and introduced him to a wondering world, DG was a national joke, and one that got funnier by the minute. BUT did NOT stop Bush the Elder from winning in 1988. And while Quayle did noting to help Poppy's image, he was NOT the decisive factor in the President's defeat versus Bill Clinton AND Ross Perot.
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer
Yes brutal but quite effective in that it depicts a situation most Americans know about in real life - but instead of pressing #1 to speak to an operator about your bank bill (let's say), it's about a crime
Michelle Lujan Grisham is 48 on BF.
I think it was after your tip that I put a little nibble on Grisham.
Cheers for the tip Rottenborough, heading over there now
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer
I thought "read my lips, no new taxes" was the main reason George HW Bush won in 1988.
As soon as he reneged on that pledge, he was in serious trouble.
Willie Horton was a killer in more ways than one, alright.
But before that ad saw the light of day (or at least hit millions of TV screens) Dukakis had already screwed himself royally by failing to answer - effectively or at all - Bush's attack upon him for his opposition to US constitutional amendment to outlaw burning the American Flag. Note that no such amendment was ever adopted BUT that was not the point.
Then Dukakis doubled down - by gobble-de-gooking when asked during debate whether he'd approve of death penalty if his own wife was murdered. AND having himself riding around on top of a big US Army tank with a ridiculous-looking helmet. All three of these unforced errors - not counting Wille Horton - were grist for the Bush-Quayle campaign media blitz.
BTW, re: VP - Dan Quayle is good example of how unimportant a VP pick, even a clearly bad one, can be to the actual voting result. From the moment that Bush announced and introduced him to a wondering world, DG was a national joke, and one that got funnier by the minute. BUT did NOT stop Bush the Elder from winning in 1988. And while Quayle did noting to help Poppy's image, he was NOT the decisive factor in the President's defeat versus Bill Clinton AND Ross Perot.
Yes, Dukakis really did shoot himself in the foot.
Re VP, agree it is usually not that important. I think it's not the case this election though because of the doubts about Biden's health. I don't think anyone questioned HW on his mental facilities. Even the Democrats admit the VP candidate will need to be (more than usual) ready to step up.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
Trump +4 in Arizona. Interesting, let me check the poll....
Very Interesting, it's by Gravis so non-partisan (infact 538 list them as having a tiny Dem skew) and just because it was commissioned by OAN doesn't mean the polling is bad.... Wait a minute hold the fucking phone what is this?
Stop. Collaborate. Listen. The Clinton-Trump split is not accurate. Trump won by 4 points (48-44) in 2016. This is their post demographic weighting. That is saying the 2016 result according to their sample was Trump: 54% Clinton: 38%
That's a humongous "skew".
As I said Alastair, and have been quite vocal on this, I question the polls - especially the state polls - because I don't trust them and they weren't accurate last time.
Have you done a similar analysis eg on the polls showing a big Democratic lead in some of these states?
Had a look at the NY Time/Sienna Arizona poll as they provide decentish Cross Tabs
This was for a Biden+7 poll They had a not quite as skewed but still-Trump heavy Trump 39, Clinton 29 past vote in their sample (but they are not clear if that is the pre or post weighted figures).
JFC, For some of the most interesting questions in the survey they don't break it down by either past or current vote choice. These utter wankers.
Look at this question - utter dynamite, no breakdown
It really is ridiculous, the side questions are often the most interesting.
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
People often hope the Sec of State will call in applications for final decision. If done, it must be for good reason and totallt above board. Jenrick is increasingly struggling with the smell test.
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
Very much as some working-class people would have viewed the movement to ban slavery, or the suffragettes' movement.
Boris Johnson has a knife-edge lead over who is considered best prime minister, with a 34% rating compared to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's 33% tally.
Sir Keir's approval rating also dipped from 46% to 43%, according to the survey.
Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: "While the Government may be keen to reopen, the public are looking ahead and with trepidation and aren't expecting this release to be anything but temporary.
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
Very much as some working-class people would have viewed the movement to ban slavery, or the suffragettes' movement.
I think as another poster put on here the other day, in the 1970s, the cause du jour amongst the trendy left was allowing paedoph1lia. It's wrong to assume all progressive movements are automatically progress.
BUT at rate The Donald is going, he's surely on course to sink his own ship, and lots of other boats for GOP.
For example, my fearless prediction is that TX State House will go Democratic, number of key seats already within the danger zone for Lone Star Republicans.
Any winning, please remit customary 50%. Any losses, please feel free to share among yezselves.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
There has not been much ex-urbanisation since the last changes. Indeed London, Manchester, Bristol will gain with some very big electorates at present. None of the major cities will lose out except possibly Newcastle. By contrast the Tories have made a lot of progress in areas with declining populations, such as Cumbria, Durham and Teesside, the Black Country and Potteries, which will therefore lose out, yes. The major change will be a loss of 8 seats for Wales. Ironically another area the Tories did well. That may turn out to be net no change.
Here we go with the off-topic flagging again. I think these buttons were removed previously because they were used in exactly the same way.
It’s deliciously ironic that somebody flagged that as off-topic.
Imagine being so tragic as to get worked up over people flagging your posts off topic lol - mine constantly get tagged and I couldn't give a toss. Who cares!
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
I'm assuming that it's the product of population growth in urban cores and the substantial Tory advances in the Red Wall constituencies, rendering boundary changes much less advantageous to the Conservatives than they would've been previously.
It is a mark of how utterly spineless Johnson is, that he is still in post.
No, it's a mark of how much contempt Cummings holds everyone else in.
He proved that they could lie blatantly on national TV and nobody could actually do anything.
The administration feels no shame, and there is no power to shift them.
Or it might be that he’s running out of his intellectual inferiors to appoint to cabinet posts, as he can’t bear to deal with people cleverer than him.
I mean let’s face it, there are quite a number of horses that would be disqualified for being too cerebral.
So keeping Jenrick solves a problem there.
Buckland, Wallace and Sunak are probably all under pressure.
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
Very much as some working-class people would have viewed the movement to ban slavery, or the suffragettes' movement.
Take a hike ass, thinking blm are tossers doesn't make you a racist. Most of those folks you just slagged off are probably less racist than you because they don't even think about peoples race they just work alongside and with whoever. Whereas folk like you are so ultra conscious of it and use it to make yourself seem virtuous. You probably say things to your islington chums like "Oh I was talking to my black friend the other day" just so they know how egalitarian you are
Here we go with the off-topic flagging again. I think these buttons were removed previously because they were used in exactly the same way.
It’s deliciously ironic that somebody flagged that as off-topic.
Imagine being so tragic as to get worked up over people flagging your posts off topic lol - mine constantly get tagged and I couldn't give a toss. Who cares!
I cry tears of joy for every like I receive, and tears of sadness at every off topic.
Here we go with the off-topic flagging again. I think these buttons were removed previously because they were used in exactly the same way.
It’s deliciously ironic that somebody flagged that as off-topic.
Imagine being so tragic as to get worked up over people flagging your posts off topic lol - mine constantly get tagged and I couldn't give a toss. Who cares!
I cry tears of joy for every like I receive, and tears of sadness at every off topic.
Here we go with the off-topic flagging again. I think these buttons were removed previously because they were used in exactly the same way.
It’s deliciously ironic that somebody flagged that as off-topic.
Imagine being so tragic as to get worked up over people flagging your posts off topic lol - mine constantly get tagged and I couldn't give a toss. Who cares!
I cry tears of joy for every like I receive, and tears of sadness at every off topic.
Blimey.
For the sake of kle4’s skin, let’s just leave all his posts blank.
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Uh-uh. Electoral Calculus' own estimate of the upcoming boundary changes (not yet added as an option to to their calculator) adds 6 seats to the Tory total from other parties.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
Glad to see the boundary commission are doing their job.
Normal for Conservatives to gain in boudary changes due to suburban- & exurban-ization. Isn't +6 small compared to previous changes? If so, is this result of suburban voters becoming LESS likely to vote Tory on on hand, and rural & rust-belt voters trending the other way? Same as in US?
There has not been much ex-urbanisation since the last changes. Indeed London, Manchester, Bristol will gain with some very big electorates at present. None of the major cities will lose out except possibly Newcastle. By contrast the Tories have made a lot of progress in areas with declining populations, such as Cumbria, Durham and Teesside, the Black Country and Potteries, which will therefore lose out, yes. The major change will be a loss of 8 seats for Wales. Ironically another area the Tories did well. That may turn out to be net no change.
Thanks for info & details. Sounds like gentrification and/or densification in urban cores is a factor. Just as here in city of Seattle, which has highest population growth in state (esp. of younger adults) along with Vancouver WA a suburb of Portland OR.
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
Very much as some working-class people would have viewed the movement to ban slavery, or the suffragettes' movement.
Take a hike ass, thinking blm are tossers doesn't make you a racist. Most of those folks you just slagged off are probably less racist than you because they don't even think about peoples race they just work alongside and with whoever. Whereas folk like you are so ultra conscious of it and use it to make yourself seem virtuous. You probably say things to your islington chums like "Oh I was talking to my black friend the other day" just so they know how egalitarian you are
Marvellous to encounter a poster who doesn't thing in terms of clichés and stereotypes.
Boris Johnson has a knife-edge lead over who is considered best prime minister, with a 34% rating compared to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's 33% tally.
Sir Keir's approval rating also dipped from 46% to 43%, according to the survey.
Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: "While the Government may be keen to reopen, the public are looking ahead and with trepidation and aren't expecting this release to be anything but temporary.
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
Very much as some working-class people would have viewed the movement to ban slavery, or the suffragettes' movement.
Take a hike ass, thinking blm are tossers doesn't make you a racist. Most of those folks you just slagged off are probably less racist than you because they don't even think about peoples race they just work alongside and with whoever. Whereas folk like you are so ultra conscious of it and use it to make yourself seem virtuous. You probably say things to your islington chums like "Oh I was talking to my black friend the other day" just so they know how egalitarian you are
Marvellous to encounter a poster who doesn't thing in terms of clichés and stereotypes.
Ah so its ok for someone who is on your side to make sweeping generalisations implying those that work at the low end as knuckledraggers who would oppose suffragettes or abolition of slavery......but dare to suggest he is part of that islington luvvie chattarati set and thats totally out of order. Take the beam out of your own eye first
Here we go with the off-topic flagging again. I think these buttons were removed previously because they were used in exactly the same way.
It’s deliciously ironic that somebody flagged that as off-topic.
Imagine being so tragic as to get worked up over people flagging your posts off topic lol - mine constantly get tagged and I couldn't give a toss. Who cares!
I cry tears of joy for every like I receive, and tears of sadness at every off topic.
Dare I ask what you do with a spam?
Let us hope we never find out, I am a senstive soul.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
All broadly within margin of error.
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to Jews
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippy
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.
Yes, it was a huge risk. Misguided
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
My point is that no one cares about the knee YET
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected
I wouldn't be too sure. Most here live in their cosy little middle class bubbles. Outside in the world of shop workers and lowly office workers things like BLM and Extinction Rebellion are viewed with contempt and they are regarded as over educated tossers with too much time on their hands and too much money from mummy and daddy.
Very much as some working-class people would have viewed the movement to ban slavery, or the suffragettes' movement.
Take a hike ass, thinking blm are tossers doesn't make you a racist. Most of those folks you just slagged off are probably less racist than you because they don't even think about peoples race they just work alongside and with whoever. Whereas folk like you are so ultra conscious of it and use it to make yourself seem virtuous. You probably say things to your islington chums like "Oh I was talking to my black friend the other day" just so they know how egalitarian you are
Marvellous to encounter a poster who doesn't thing in terms of clichés and stereotypes.
Ah so its ok for someone who is on your side to make sweeping generalisations implying those that work at the low end as knuckledraggers who would oppose suffragettes or abolition of slavery......but dare to suggest he is part of that islington luvvie chattarati set and thats totally out of order. Take the beam out of your own eye first
Hey, I meant it. Your 'metaphor' that lefties were rats that needed to be poisoned was special.
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
Isn't that called the Like button?
No the like button is used by the PB Tory clique to continue their love in, post anything against the hive mind and you get off topic or spam
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
What PB needs is a 'That's the stupidest thing I've ever read, you deserve to be force fed Hawaiian pizzas for the rest of your life' button.
Latest state polls in USA: Florida tie, Texas Trump +4, Arizona Trump +4, if this continues in a state like Pennsylvania, the status is a slight decline for Trump but not enough to topple him.
The Arizona poll is badly compromised by assuming Trump won in 2016 by 17 points (he won by 4)
PBers may think that flagging post as off-topic is a complement, for example in midst of learned debates re: alternative voting and the off-sides rule (the latter an especial American favorite).
There should really be an on-topic button.
What PB needs is a 'That's the stupidest thing I've ever read, you deserve to be force fed Hawaiian pizzas for the rest of your life' button.
Comments
May's government wasn't a majority government, even with only one party needed to rely upon for confidence and supply. Even if that happened it'd be a rainbow based minority government.
I think it was after your tip that I put a little nibble on Grisham.
Hence 321+6 = 327. Official majority of 4, working majority of 11 once Sinn Fein's 7 abstentionist MPs are accounted for.
Bribe the DUP again and it's 27
But before that ad saw the light of day (or at least hit millions of TV screens) Dukakis had already screwed himself royally by failing to answer - effectively or at all - Bush's attack upon him for his opposition to US constitutional amendment to outlaw burning the American Flag. Note that no such amendment was ever adopted BUT that was not the point.
Then Dukakis doubled down - by gobble-de-gooking when asked during debate whether he'd approve of death penalty if his own wife was murdered. AND having himself riding around on top of a big US Army tank with a ridiculous-looking helmet. All three of these unforced errors - not counting Wille Horton - were grist for the Bush-Quayle campaign media blitz.
BTW, re: VP - Dan Quayle is good example of how unimportant a VP pick, even a clearly bad one, can be to the actual voting result. From the moment that Bush announced and introduced him to a wondering world, DG was a national joke, and one that got funnier by the minute. BUT did NOT stop Bush the Elder from winning in 1988. And while Quayle did noting to help Poppy's image, he was NOT the decisive factor in the President's defeat versus Bill Clinton AND Ross Perot.
Is not facing centuries/millennia of racism is somewhat more important?
Re VP, agree it is usually not that important. I think it's not the case this election though because of the doubts about Biden's health. I don't think anyone questioned HW on his mental facilities. Even the Democrats admit the VP candidate will need to be (more than usual) ready to step up.
[Literally true apparently]
Ensign Pulver is standing on the deck, sees the Captain's prize palm tree, and throws same overboard.
Then he storms up to Captain's cabin, pounds on the door, and throws it open.
"Captain, I just threw your stinking palm tree overboard! Now what's all this crap about no movie tonight?!?!"
FYI, not sure if you saw this
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/upshot/joe-biden-voters-coronavirus.html
So much of this argument is bullshit
Obama lost Missouri by only 0.13%
IF you told him that, "Jesus wept," he'd say, "well, at least he did it in English!"
We know he is sleazy. He hasn't gone.
We know they lie to us. We know they don't care.
The snapshot survey shows that 73% expect a second outbreak of Covid-19 this year.
It states the Government's disapproval rating is at 49% - with just 30% approving of its performance.
The survey also finds that 53% of people think the easing of the lockdown is happening too fast.
Sir Keir's approval rating also dipped from 46% to 43%, according to the survey.
Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: "While the Government may be keen to reopen, the public are looking ahead and with trepidation and aren't expecting this release to be anything but temporary.
BUT at rate The Donald is going, he's surely on course to sink his own ship, and lots of other boats for GOP.
For example, my fearless prediction is that TX State House will go Democratic, number of key seats already within the danger zone for Lone Star Republicans.
Any winning, please remit customary 50%. Any losses, please feel free to share among yezselves.
He proved that they could lie blatantly on national TV and nobody could actually do anything.
The administration feels no shame, and there is no power to shift them.
By contrast the Tories have made a lot of progress in areas with declining populations, such as Cumbria, Durham and Teesside, the Black Country and Potteries, which will therefore lose out, yes.
The major change will be a loss of 8 seats for Wales. Ironically another area the Tories did well. That may turn out to be net no change.
I mean let’s face it, there are quite a number of horses that would be disqualified for being too cerebral.
So keeping Jenrick solves a problem there.
Buckland, Wallace and Sunak are probably all under pressure.
For the sake of kle4’s skin, let’s just leave all his posts blank.
Time will tell
Does ed Davey look a complete knob tonight?
Repeatedly misusing the off topic/spam buttons is likely to see the ban hammer deployed.
Every time someone flags a post as spam or off topic it sends an email to Robert and OGH, and it really pisses them off when it is being misused.
No2AV 68%
Yes2AV 32%
#justsayin'
Or more positively, to quote LBJ - "Let us reason together".
Is it when Sturgeon let's the English in?
Why does Westminster kow tow to Scotland we should turn their benefits off!
State pension Big_G? Welcome to the 49%!