Johnson, as you'd expect, was entirely clueless about the Rashford thing and had not bothered to read his briefs. But that's the predictable bit. The interesting thing is that Sunak made the call not to fund the extension into the summer, despite the very low cost of doing so. Politically it was a very poor call and it was disastrous symbolically. But it is only a foretaste of the kinds of decsion that he is going to have to be making later on this year and next. Having done the easy bit, the Chancellor is soon going to have to start making some very tough calls that will affect a lot of people who voted Tory last December. It may be worth holding off buying shares in his political future until we see how that plays out.
Sunak's best hope is for Johnson to fall on his sword whilst Sunak's stock remains high. That window of opportunity could be very small.
Sadly for Sunak, I can't envisage any scandal big enough to topple Johnson.
It is hard to think of a scandal that would remove Boris and leave the chap next door in place. More likely is Boris steps down for health reasons if he is still the worse for wear after the summer recess and Christmas/New Year breaks, and that is long enough for the gilt to come off the Chancellor's gingerbread.
I don't see Johnson relinquishing the grace and favour homes and service staff too readily.
I remain unpersuaded by the wisdom of windfall taxes or taxing people on the basis of hitting groups/individuals for the crime of having a lot of income rather than trying to increase the revenue.
Punitive taxation does not sit well with me.
I think it's time for footballers to put their money where their mouths are. It's one thing to be charitable, now they are asking for additional taxpayer spending, well that money needs to come from somewhere.
Just footballers? Or will you include Captains of Industry etc. in the equation?
CEOs as well, I think £250k is a reasonable level which gets the actually very rich. My only worry is that it would be difficult to get rid of.
If you want a 50% top rate of income tax then you should be voting Labour as it was a policy of Brown, Ed Miliband, Corbyn and now Starmer.
Osborne cut the top rate of income tax back to 45% after Darling raised it to 50%
Thatcher had it at 60% for nine years.
Thatcher inherited a top income tax rate of 83% in 1979, she left office with the top rate of income tax slashed to just 40% by 1990.
No PM cut the top rate of income tax over their premiership more than Thatcher did
Thatcher wanted to leave it at 50% I believe. Lawson convinced her to cut it to 40%.
And receipts went up.
It's almost as if tax isn't just the government collecting whatever they feel like - the taxed react.
For example, the famous 98% supertax - it never actually raised any money.
Do you have data to support the fact of the 1989 top rate tax cut from 60% to 40% raising more revenue? It's counter-intuitive. Things being equal, worked hour for worked hour, a 60% rate will raise far more revenue than a 40% one. The disincentives have to be truly massive to counter that extra per-hour worked revenue.
I get that motivation for tax avoidance may be a bit higher at 60% than 40% but higher tax rates are a powerful incentive to increase your taxable income. When tax rates increase you need to work more hours to maintain your standard of living; when tax rates fall you can work less and still maintain it. I have seen some data to support this suggestion. It means that not only does tax increase because rates increase, but also because there is more taxable income to apply those higher rates to. Obviously there comes a point of diminishing returns
There’s certainly data to support Osborne cutting the top rate from 50% to 45% post-2012 worked with raising more revenue.
I disagree with your analysis though. I’m on the cusp of 100k right now and, from 100k to 125k, I will be taxed at an effective rate of 60%.
It’s a huge disincentive for me to get another promotion or salary rise to the next level. Why bother with a 15k rise to 115k and a director role when I’ll only scoop an extra £500 a month for all the extra stress and effort?
I’d rather stay where I am for the easy life. Unless I can jump straight to £150k+ year with a huge promotion and salary rise.
That’s what happens when you overtax: people can’t be bothered.
Fast and effective track/trace/isolate is the single best way to control any pandemic, and we've known that for many, many decades. That we still don't have a fully functional system is simply unbelievable.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Not either or. If the announcement only comes on 1st July there can be no opening on 4th July.
Trudi Harrison in the next door constituency - mine now - has said nothing. A total waste of space. She won’t be getting the Cyclefree family’s votes in future.
If the announcement comes on 1 July then you can open when you're prepared. Be that 15 July, 1 August or 4 July. It's an opening from date not open by date.
4 July has been announced as the ambition but no guarantee so if you want to take a gamble then you can get stock ready for then.
Or you can open with bottles and kegs that can be used immediately and get real ales on later when they're ready.
On the subject of openings, can anyone - given that non essential retail is now allowed open give me a solitary good reason why caravan parks aren't allowed to reopen now. And no I don't have a caravan.
Encouraging people driving around the country, especially if the journey is 350 miles or so, is bad during a pandemic, especially as some need a further journey the day before for their eye test.
We are already able to drive anywhere for exercise :-).
Yes but there will be some lazy caravanners who are not yet driving 350 miles up and down the country as well as your Joe Wicks style caravanners who might already be doing so.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
I suspect cheating on Carrie might present him with serious problems, though.
Why? He is going to do it. 100%. If he already hasn't. Just think about the ones we know about: shagging Wheeler while he married to the first one. Shagging Wyatt (2 unpaid for abortions LOL), the one from the Guardian, the art woman he stuck a sprog on, Arcuri and finally Ofboris all while he was married to Wheeler. A cocksman of that calibre isn't going to suddenly holster it overnight.
Just to scratch an itch - what is the significance/etymology of 'Ofboris' please?
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Not either or. If the announcement only comes on 1st July there can be no opening on 4th July.
Trudi Harrison in the next door constituency - mine now - has said nothing. A total waste of space. She won’t be getting the Cyclefree family’s votes in future.
The problem with this particular disease is the lag factor - it takes 2-3 weeks to understand the effects of each relaxation of the lockdown, before we can move to the next stage without risking another spike. They want to make the decision as soon as possible, but don’t want to have to lock down again because they opened too early.
None of which, of course, is an excuse for an MP saying nothing or a licensing authority unable to show some flexibility under the circumstances and allow off sales / beer gardens / tents on village greens etc.
Best of luck to your daughter and her business, hope everything works out well for her and she can get opened up again soon.
(Anecdotal evidence from abroad - re-opening shops with social distancing and wearing of masks/gloves appears not to lead to a spike in cases).
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
Would you have not given the target date if you were in their place? I'm not sure how that would have improved things, as the industry would still be in the same situation it is now.
Should this be true, following fast on the heels of Rashford, there is the faint aroma of the post Black Wednesday Major government about Johnson and his chums.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Not either or. If the announcement only comes on 1st July there can be no opening on 4th July.
Trudi Harrison in the next door constituency - mine now - has said nothing. A total waste of space. She won’t be getting the Cyclefree family’s votes in future.
The problem with this particular disease is the lag factor - it takes 2-3 weeks to understand the effects of each relaxation of the lockdown, before we can move to the next stage without risking another spike.
None of which, of course, is an excuse for an MP saying nothing or a licensing authority unable to show some flexibility under the circumstances and allow off sales / beer gardens / tents on village greens etc.
Best of luck to your daughter and her business, hope everything works out well for her and she can get opened up again soon.
(Anecdotal evidence from abroad - re-opening shops with social distancing and wearing of masks/gloves appears not to lead to a spike in cases).
Indeed!
The biggest criticism for me is not the lack of certainty on the date (there simply isn't any certainty) it is the pigheadedness of idiots refusing to give permission to businesses to adapt by permitting off trade - as well as the refusal to permit the opening of beer gardens.
Beer gardens should have been permitted to be opened this week. I see no reason why its OK to be inside the Arndale but its not OK to be outside in the fresh air supporting a local business.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
I suspect cheating on Carrie might present him with serious problems, though.
Why? He is going to do it. 100%. If he already hasn't. Just think about the ones we know about: shagging Wheeler while he married to the first one. Shagging Wyatt (2 unpaid for abortions LOL), the one from the Guardian, the art woman he stuck a sprog on, Arcuri and finally Ofboris all while he was married to Wheeler. A cocksman of that calibre isn't going to suddenly holster it overnight.
Just to scratch an itch - what is the significance/etymology of 'Ofboris' please?
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
I run a small business myself which has been hit as well, I have sympathy, but also see a need to be pragmatic.
If a weeks extra fixed costs is the difference between a restaurant making it or not, its probably really not going to last this crisis anyway.
It is the nature of a pandemic that we get more information to make decisions on each day and week, so final decisions are best made close to the time. Its another reason Covid19 is particularly harmful but its not the govts fault.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
I suspect cheating on Carrie might present him with serious problems, though.
Why? He is going to do it. 100%. If he already hasn't. Just think about the ones we know about: shagging Wheeler while he married to the first one. Shagging Wyatt (2 unpaid for abortions LOL), the one from the Guardian, the art woman he stuck a sprog on, Arcuri and finally Ofboris all while he was married to Wheeler. A cocksman of that calibre isn't going to suddenly holster it overnight.
Just to scratch an itch - what is the significance/etymology of 'Ofboris' please?
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
I suspect cheating on Carrie might present him with serious problems, though.
That’s almost inevitable.
Carrie knew the type of man she took on and was perfectly willing to facilitate his cheating. She has no right to complain if some other woman does to her what she did to Marina.
Pensioners and children are treated well by the Gov;t. If you're in your early 20s then it's all of the risks and none of the rewards. This has just been exacerbated by the pandemic.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
I suspect cheating on Carrie might present him with serious problems, though.
That’s almost inevitable.
Carrie knew the type of man she took on and was perfectly willing to facilitate his cheating. She has no right to complain if some other woman does to her what she did to Marina.
Indeed. She’s going to marry him and be a new mother, so she’s created a vacancy.
He probably isn’t well enough or has time at present, with a new born, but I wouldn’t put it past him.
I remain unpersuaded by the wisdom of windfall taxes or taxing people on the basis of hitting groups/individuals for the crime of having a lot of income rather than trying to increase the revenue.
Punitive taxation does not sit well with me.
I think it's time for footballers to put their money where their mouths are. It's one thing to be charitable, now they are asking for additional taxpayer spending, well that money needs to come from somewhere.
Just footballers? Or will you include Captains of Industry etc. in the equation?
CEOs as well, I think £250k is a reasonable level which gets the actually very rich. My only worry is that it would be difficult to get rid of.
If you want a 50% top rate of income tax then you should be voting Labour as it was a policy of Brown, Ed Miliband, Corbyn and now Starmer.
Osborne cut the top rate of income tax back to 45% after Darling raised it to 50%
Thatcher had it at 60% for nine years.
Thatcher inherited a top income tax rate of 83% in 1979, she left office with the top rate of income tax slashed to just 40% by 1990.
No PM cut the top rate of income tax over their premiership more than Thatcher did
Thatcher wanted to leave it at 50% I believe. Lawson convinced her to cut it to 40%.
And receipts went up.
It's almost as if tax isn't just the government collecting whatever they feel like - the taxed react.
For example, the famous 98% supertax - it never actually raised any money.
Do you have data to support the fact of the 1989 top rate tax cut from 60% to 40% raising more revenue? It's counter-intuitive. Things being equal, worked hour for worked hour, a 60% rate will raise far more revenue than a 40% one. The disincentives have to be truly massive to counter that extra per-hour worked revenue.
I get that motivation for tax avoidance may be a bit higher at 60% than 40% but higher tax rates are a powerful incentive to increase your taxable income. When tax rates increase you need to work more hours to maintain your standard of living; when tax rates fall you can work less and still maintain it. I have seen some data to support this suggestion. It means that not only does tax increase because rates increase, but also because there is more taxable income to apply those higher rates to. Obviously there comes a point of diminishing returns
I personally witnessed the Laffer Curve in action.
When the top rate was cut to 40%, a relative fired his tax lawyer & unwound some complex and expensive arrangements.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
I suspect cheating on Carrie might present him with serious problems, though.
That’s almost inevitable.
Carrie knew the type of man she took on and was perfectly willing to facilitate his cheating. She has no right to complain if some other woman does to her what she did to Marina.
Indeed. She’s going to marry him and be a new mother, so she’s created a vacancy.
He probably isn’t well enough or has time at present, with a new born, but I wouldn’t put it past him.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
You seem to want both a swift decision, early opening and time certainty to plan. Do you understand those are contradictory aims? The government can either announce that businesses can open and give time and space for certainty, or they can get businesses opened up as soon as possible?
They have said they can't give a date. They have said they are waiting for evidence. They have said they are continuing support until October. They have said this sector in particular is getting some of its support kept until next year already.
If the decision can't be made until 1 July then which would you prefer of the following two options:
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 1 August with certainty and time to get stuff arranged attached to the decision.
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 4 July with no time for certainty and planning but businesses able to open ASAP when they are ready?
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
Would you have not given the target date if you were in their place? I'm not sure how that would have improved things, as the industry would still be in the same situation it is now.
The particular issues around the hospitality sector necessitate a more bespoke programme of support and guidance. That is what I would want. Tim Farron puts it very well.
What the government should now be doing is having tailored programmes of support for the socially undistanceable sectors - not just restaurants and pubs but performing arts etc - and withdrawing a one-size fits all furlough programme.
I remain unpersuaded by the wisdom of windfall taxes or taxing people on the basis of hitting groups/individuals for the crime of having a lot of income rather than trying to increase the revenue.
Punitive taxation does not sit well with me.
I think it's time for footballers to put their money where their mouths are. It's one thing to be charitable, now they are asking for additional taxpayer spending, well that money needs to come from somewhere.
Just footballers? Or will you include Captains of Industry etc. in the equation?
CEOs as well, I think £250k is a reasonable level which gets the actually very rich. My only worry is that it would be difficult to get rid of.
If you want a 50% top rate of income tax then you should be voting Labour as it was a policy of Brown, Ed Miliband, Corbyn and now Starmer.
Osborne cut the top rate of income tax back to 45% after Darling raised it to 50%
Thatcher had it at 60% for nine years.
Thatcher inherited a top income tax rate of 83% in 1979, she left office with the top rate of income tax slashed to just 40% by 1990.
No PM cut the top rate of income tax over their premiership more than Thatcher did
Thatcher wanted to leave it at 50% I believe. Lawson convinced her to cut it to 40%.
And receipts went up.
It's almost as if tax isn't just the government collecting whatever they feel like - the taxed react.
For example, the famous 98% supertax - it never actually raised any money.
Do you have data to support the fact of the 1989 top rate tax cut from 60% to 40% raising more revenue? It's counter-intuitive. Things being equal, worked hour for worked hour, a 60% rate will raise far more revenue than a 40% one. The disincentives have to be truly massive to counter that extra per-hour worked revenue.
I get that motivation for tax avoidance may be a bit higher at 60% than 40% but higher tax rates are a powerful incentive to increase your taxable income. When tax rates increase you need to work more hours to maintain your standard of living; when tax rates fall you can work less and still maintain it. I have seen some data to support this suggestion. It means that not only does tax increase because rates increase, but also because there is more taxable income to apply those higher rates to. Obviously there comes a point of diminishing returns
There’s certainly data to support Osborne cutting the top rate from 50% to 45% post-2012 worked with raising more revenue.
I disagree with your analysis though. I’m on the cusp of 100k right now and, from 100k to 125k, I will be taxed at an effective rate of 60%.
It’s a huge disincentive for me to get another promotion or salary rise to the next level. Why bother with a 15k rise to 115k and a director role when I’ll only scoop an extra £500 a month for all the extra stress and effort?
I’d rather stay where I am for the easy life. Unless I can jump straight to £150k+ year with a huge promotion and salary rise.
That’s what happens when you overtax: people can’t be bothered.
Arthur Laffer wrote about this decades ago, people are willing to change behaviour much more than you’d think, to avoid taxes they see as punitive. This is doubly so for those who earn more than they need to survive day-to-day. A 60% marginal tax rate is a great way to see hundreds of thousands of professionals move to a four-day week - many of them “beloved vital NHS doctors”.
I remain unpersuaded by the wisdom of windfall taxes or taxing people on the basis of hitting groups/individuals for the crime of having a lot of income rather than trying to increase the revenue.
Punitive taxation does not sit well with me.
I think it's time for footballers to put their money where their mouths are. It's one thing to be charitable, now they are asking for additional taxpayer spending, well that money needs to come from somewhere.
Just footballers? Or will you include Captains of Industry etc. in the equation?
CEOs as well, I think £250k is a reasonable level which gets the actually very rich. My only worry is that it would be difficult to get rid of.
If you want a 50% top rate of income tax then you should be voting Labour as it was a policy of Brown, Ed Miliband, Corbyn and now Starmer.
Osborne cut the top rate of income tax back to 45% after Darling raised it to 50%
Thatcher had it at 60% for nine years.
Thatcher inherited a top income tax rate of 83% in 1979, she left office with the top rate of income tax slashed to just 40% by 1990.
No PM cut the top rate of income tax over their premiership more than Thatcher did
Thatcher wanted to leave it at 50% I believe. Lawson convinced her to cut it to 40%.
And receipts went up.
It's almost as if tax isn't just the government collecting whatever they feel like - the taxed react.
For example, the famous 98% supertax - it never actually raised any money.
Do you have data to support the fact of the 1989 top rate tax cut from 60% to 40% raising more revenue? It's counter-intuitive. Things being equal, worked hour for worked hour, a 60% rate will raise far more revenue than a 40% one. The disincentives have to be truly massive to counter that extra per-hour worked revenue.
I get that motivation for tax avoidance may be a bit higher at 60% than 40% but higher tax rates are a powerful incentive to increase your taxable income. When tax rates increase you need to work more hours to maintain your standard of living; when tax rates fall you can work less and still maintain it. I have seen some data to support this suggestion. It means that not only does tax increase because rates increase, but also because there is more taxable income to apply those higher rates to. Obviously there comes a point of diminishing returns
There’s certainly data to support Osborne cutting the top rate from 50% to 45% post-2012 worked with raising more revenue.
I disagree with your analysis though. I’m on the cusp of 100k right now and, from 100k to 125k, I will be taxed at an effective rate of 60%.
It’s a huge disincentive for me to get another promotion or salary rise to the next level. Why bother with a 15k rise to 115k and a director role when I’ll only scoop an extra £500 a month for all the extra stress and effort?
I’d rather stay where I am for the easy life. Unless I can jump straight to £150k+ year with a huge promotion and salary rise.
That’s what happens when you overtax: people can’t be bothered.
It sounds like your issue (from a tax raising PoV) is more that there is too big a jump from one band to the next than the rates are too high per se. I understand with Osborne's rate-cut that the change was flagged well in advance so that people pushed as much income into the subsequent tax year as possible to take advantage - ie it was a one-off effect.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
You seem to want both a swift decision, early opening and time certainty to plan. Do you understand those are contradictory aims? The government can either announce that businesses can open and give time and space for certainty, or they can get businesses opened up as soon as possible?
They have said they can't give a date. They have said they are waiting for evidence. They have said they are continuing support until October. They have said this sector in particular is getting some of its support kept until next year already.
If the decision can't be made until 1 July then which would you prefer of the following two options:
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 1 August with certainty and time to get stuff arranged attached to the decision.
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 4 July with no time for certainty and planning but businesses able to open ASAP when they are ready?
I have not seen anywhere that the support is being kept until next year. Do you have the details please?
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
You seem to want both a swift decision, early opening and time certainty to plan. Do you understand those are contradictory aims? The government can either announce that businesses can open and give time and space for certainty, or they can get businesses opened up as soon as possible?
They have said they can't give a date. They have said they are waiting for evidence. They have said they are continuing support until October. They have said this sector in particular is getting some of its support kept until next year already.
If the decision can't be made until 1 July then which would you prefer of the following two options:
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 1 August with certainty and time to get stuff arranged attached to the decision.
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 4 July with no time for certainty and planning but businesses able to open ASAP when they are ready?
I have not seen anywhere that the support is being kept until next year. Do you have the details please?
Some of it, not all of it, furlough is ending in October. Specifically your daughter's NNDR may have already been scrapped until 2021 so at least once she has reopened she has no NNDR to pay for the rest of the year and early next year: That is specific support to the sector.
Fast and effective track/trace/isolate is the single best way to control any pandemic, and we've known that for many, many decades. That we still don't have a fully functional system is simply unbelievable.
And how have the devolved administrations fared by comparison?
The buck still stops with the governmentS but I fear they have been poorly advised.
PHE is clearly crap - and that is the fault of successive governments over the last decade. But contact tracing is basic stuff. It didn't have to wait for any particularly level of testing capacity, or indeed any particular test; a system could have been set up as soon as the pandemic was declared a pandemic. Instead, we gave up early on, and sat on our hands for a couple of months.
I'd agree that Hancock has most likely had some fairly poor advice on public health - and that is likely a contributory factor to the care homes debacle. But neither of those things are rocket science. If I can understand them the bloody health secretary should be able to do so - or he shouldn't be health secretary.
I think you need to look up the definition of communism.
Probably a tongue in cheek reference to Conservative pearl-clutching over Labour's free internet policy. Ironically, the Tories were also promising state-provided broadband infrastructure, but free to ISPs not their customers.
Nationalising broadband, which is the mad thing Labour was proposing, would have brought a halt to all the FTTC/FTTP work that is happening right now, as well as creating a state monopoly which would end up fighting for funding with things like the NHS. Labour's plans for state provision were also less ambitious than what the private sector is doing right now.
I'd oppose that no matter what party backed it, but there's really only one party in Britain dopey enough to do so.
There’s certainly data to support Osborne cutting the top rate from 50% to 45% post-2012 worked with raising more revenue.
I disagree with your analysis though. I’m on the cusp of 100k right now and, from 100k to 125k, I will be taxed at an effective rate of 60%.
It’s a huge disincentive for me to get another promotion or salary rise to the next level. Why bother with a 15k rise to 115k and a director role when I’ll only scoop an extra £500 a month for all the extra stress and effort?
I’d rather stay where I am for the easy life. Unless I can jump straight to £150k+ year with a huge promotion and salary rise.
That’s what happens when you overtax: people can’t be bothered.
Just to do the opposite anecdote: I do as much paid work as I need to pay bills and keep the goats in straw then put a bit aside for my old age, but if I have way more than I need I just kind of tinker around making things that amuse me and argue about politics on the internet. The more of my income the government snaffles the more paid work I'll need to do.
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
A lot of students work part-time alongside their studies. Or they might be referring to career changers.
A similar story has just hit the education press, by the way. Teach First (who match up high-flying graduates with hard-to-fill positions in challenging schools) have unrecruited some of their 2020 cohort on pretty minimal notice.
Not directly the government's fault; they run schools and teacher training in a fairly passive way these days. And many of those 120 will get in to teaching via another route. But I think most people with memories of the mid-90s will agree; it's bad when the government gets blame for things it's really responsible for. A government on the rocks gets blamed (and the blame sticks) for things it isn't really responsible for.
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
There’s definitely more to it, but it seems that PHE recruited thousands of people on six month contracts to help fight a pandemic, and these people are now furiously upset that the contract was only for six months.
Sadly for the government, these stories are now going to be coming almost daily for months, as every special interest group wants their pet project funded or temporary support made permanent.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Not either or. If the announcement only comes on 1st July there can be no opening on 4th July.
Trudi Harrison in the next door constituency - mine now - has said nothing. A total waste of space. She won’t be getting the Cyclefree family’s votes in future.
Assuming Trudi Harrison is a Tory party MP, she may well have more direct channels to decision makers, and probably prefers to do that, rather than setting out her stall on social media.
Fast and effective track/trace/isolate is the single best way to control any pandemic, and we've known that for many, many decades. That we still don't have a fully functional system is simply unbelievable.
And how have the devolved administrations fared by comparison?
The buck still stops with the governmentS but I fear they have been poorly advised.
PHE is clearly crap - and that is the fault of successive governments over the last decade. But contact tracing is basic stuff. It didn't have to wait for any particularly level of testing capacity, or indeed any particular test; a system could have been set up as soon as the pandemic was declared a pandemic. Instead, we gave up early on, and sat on our hands for a couple of months.
I'd agree that Hancock has most likely had some fairly poor advice on public health - and that is likely a contributory factor to the care homes debacle. But neither of those things are rocket science. If I can understand them the bloody health secretary should be able to do so - or he shouldn't be health secretary.
In Canada they used med student volunteers. They had hundreds helping within hours. As you say, it's not rocket science.
This is another thing in favour of a Covid NHS within the NHS, with hospitals being reopened to take purely covid patients. These nurses could be usefully emplyed there.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
I can fully understand the frustration but it seems to me that you are asking the government to remove uncertainty in a period of great uncertainty. Its just not possible. They are anxiously watching the figures to see if opening the schools and the shops increases the infection rate. They are trying to reach a view on whether 1m is safe enough, something that will have an enormous impact on the viability of your daughter's business, they are still scrabbling around trying to build a test and trace capacity (arguably the worst single failure to date) and don't know when its going to be effective.
My son's school reaches the end of term this week. In August they are going to have all their pupils that want to come (a WFH option is being offered). They are planning this on the basis of 2m separation, 1m separation and back to normal. It must be a nightmare for them but they are having to plan for all options. Unfortunately many businesses will have to do the same.
Temporary emergency workers are no longer required. What’s the actual story?
If Jennie from New Zealand was sent home as superfluous to requirements after saving Johnson's sorry arse it wouldn't look like she was being showered with gratitude for her efforts. Likewise this story. Whatever the practicalities, it looks shabby.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
But there will come a tipping point as the weakness of character and the void where intellectual grip and sense of purpose would preferably reside is increasingly revealed to even the most casual observer.
We're not there yet but we might be closer to it than his more ardent supporters suppose. It can happen quite swiftly - a collective awakening to the truth - and when it does there is no nodding off again. The debagging of Donald Trump in the last few weeks is a useful template for what I mean.
Fast and effective track/trace/isolate is the single best way to control any pandemic, and we've known that for many, many decades. That we still don't have a fully functional system is simply unbelievable.
And how have the devolved administrations fared by comparison?
The buck still stops with the governmentS but I fear they have been poorly advised.
PHE is clearly crap - and that is the fault of successive governments over the last decade. But contact tracing is basic stuff. It didn't have to wait for any particularly level of testing capacity, or indeed any particular test; a system could have been set up as soon as the pandemic was declared a pandemic. Instead, we gave up early on, and sat on our hands for a couple of months.
I'd agree that Hancock has most likely had some fairly poor advice on public health - and that is likely a contributory factor to the care homes debacle. But neither of those things are rocket science. If I can understand them the bloody health secretary should be able to do so - or he shouldn't be health secretary.
Agreed. Following the science does not excuse a failure to ask basic questions and identify essential steps of which test and trace was clearly one from the point that phase 1 of our response collapsed within days in its absence. I know that there is a lot going on and trying to sort out the priorities is not easy. Everyone was on Hancock's back about the quantity of testing and he focused on that. It's a tough gig right now but jeez.
Is the penny likely to drop that quickly? Rashford was dragged out for almost three days before they decided Rashford agreed with them all along.
SKS raised the meals issue at PMQs last week. It's becoming a pattern.
Fair point. I was specifically thinking of Johnson's brush off to Rashford. It looked like a bad idea at the time, but it took a while for the government brain to engage.
Johnson, as you'd expect, was entirely clueless about the Rashford thing and had not bothered to read his briefs. But that's the predictable bit. The interesting thing is that Sunak made the call not to fund the extension into the summer, despite the very low cost of doing so. Politically it was a very poor call and it was disastrous symbolically. But it is only a foretaste of the kinds of decsion that he is going to have to be making later on this year and next. Having done the easy bit, the Chancellor is soon going to have to start making some very tough calls that will affect a lot of people who voted Tory last December. It may be worth holding off buying shares in his political future until we see how that plays out.
Sunak's best hope is for Johnson to fall on his sword whilst Sunak's stock remains high. That window of opportunity could be very small.
Sadly for Sunak, I can't envisage any scandal big enough to topple Johnson.
The Tory decsion to burn so much political capital and public goodwill now is a fascinating one given what is coming down the line. Hubris, stupidity or a bit of both? Probably the latter.
I am probably overwhelmed by PB Tory propaganda, as I have come to the conclusion, the country may be on its knees from government incompetence by the next GE,, but the Tories might still win.
I am of the view that the electorate is increasingly volatile and capricious. Therefore there is the potential for a greater swing than we have seen since WWII. Or there might yet be a swing in the government's favour.
That the government still leads in the opinion polls suggests that they might know something that I'm not seeing about how to win the political debate, but there's a long way to go yet.
Mr. Pete, I can't see him ever resigning, but the PCP are surprisingly happy to rebel against the Government line so an internal challenge is certainly possible.
The Conservative Party are notoriously ruthless when it comes to failing leaders, but that is still early days for Johnson. MPs are still gratified by his performance at the GE.
Johnson transcends scandal. The personal life car crashes, the zip wire and complicity in a punishment beating conspiracy would each do for anyone else. Boris could be exposed as Jack the Ripper's getaway driver and his career would be safe.
But there will come a tipping point as the weakness of character and the void where intellectual grip and sense of purpose would preferably reside is increasingly revealed to even the most casual observer.
We're not there yet but we might be closer to it than his more ardent supporters suppose. It can happen quite swiftly - a collective awakening to the truth - and when it does there is no nodding off again. The debagging of Donald Trump in the last few weeks is a useful template for what I mean.
If you are indeed right, I suspect it will be something mundane like more Rashford-type issues rather than a full blown scandal.
This is another thing in favour of a Covid NHS within the NHS, with hospitals being reopened to take purely covid patients. These nurses could be usefully emplyed there.
We are getting hospitals split into covid and regular. This is the plan. And it's the "regular" where most of the problems are now expected.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
Can we have a 2.5% floor to public sector pay rises? No, its done off what we can afford and what is fair. The same should apply to the pension.
Sure, but that's a decision that applies to every year, not just to years where the pay figures are distorted by furlough.
I remain unpersuaded by the wisdom of windfall taxes or taxing people on the basis of hitting groups/individuals for the crime of having a lot of income rather than trying to increase the revenue.
Punitive taxation does not sit well with me.
I think it's time for footballers to put their money where their mouths are. It's one thing to be charitable, now they are asking for additional taxpayer spending, well that money needs to come from somewhere.
Just footballers? Or will you include Captains of Industry etc. in the equation?
CEOs as well, I think £250k is a reasonable level which gets the actually very rich. My only worry is that it would be difficult to get rid of.
If you want a 50% top rate of income tax then you should be voting Labour as it was a policy of Brown, Ed Miliband, Corbyn and now Starmer.
Osborne cut the top rate of income tax back to 45% after Darling raised it to 50%
Thatcher had it at 60% for nine years.
Thatcher inherited a top income tax rate of 83% in 1979, she left office with the top rate of income tax slashed to just 40% by 1990.
No PM cut the top rate of income tax over their premiership more than Thatcher did
Thatcher wanted to leave it at 50% I believe. Lawson convinced her to cut it to 40%.
And receipts went up.
It's almost as if tax isn't just the government collecting whatever they feel like - the taxed react.
For example, the famous 98% supertax - it never actually raised any money.
Do you have data to support the fact of the 1989 top rate tax cut from 60% to 40% raising more revenue? It's counter-intuitive. Things being equal, worked hour for worked hour, a 60% rate will raise far more revenue than a 40% one. The disincentives have to be truly massive to counter that extra per-hour worked revenue.
I get that motivation for tax avoidance may be a bit higher at 60% than 40% but higher tax rates are a powerful incentive to increase your taxable income. When tax rates increase you need to work more hours to maintain your standard of living; when tax rates fall you can work less and still maintain it. I have seen some data to support this suggestion. It means that not only does tax increase because rates increase, but also because there is more taxable income to apply those higher rates to. Obviously there comes a point of diminishing returns
There’s certainly data to support Osborne cutting the top rate from 50% to 45% post-2012 worked with raising more revenue.
I disagree with your analysis though. I’m on the cusp of 100k right now and, from 100k to 125k, I will be taxed at an effective rate of 60%.
It’s a huge disincentive for me to get another promotion or salary rise to the next level. Why bother with a 15k rise to 115k and a director role when I’ll only scoop an extra £500 a month for all the extra stress and effort?
I’d rather stay where I am for the easy life. Unless I can jump straight to £150k+ year with a huge promotion and salary rise.
That’s what happens when you overtax: people can’t be bothered.
It sounds like your issue (from a tax raising PoV) is more that there is too big a jump from one band to the next than the rates are too high per se. I understand with Osborne's rate-cut that the change was flagged well in advance so that people pushed as much income into the subsequent tax year as possible to take advantage - ie it was a one-off effect.
I accept it's complicated...
No, my issue is the rate is too high. When you start taking more than half of someone’s income they start seeing it as punitive and unfair.
This also applies to universal credit withdrawal, by the way, which should really be at 45% rather than 65%.
Johnson, as you'd expect, was entirely clueless about the Rashford thing and had not bothered to read his briefs. But that's the predictable bit. The interesting thing is that Sunak made the call not to fund the extension into the summer, despite the very low cost of doing so. Politically it was a very poor call and it was disastrous symbolically. But it is only a foretaste of the kinds of decsion that he is going to have to be making later on this year and next. Having done the easy bit, the Chancellor is soon going to have to start making some very tough calls that will affect a lot of people who voted Tory last December. It may be worth holding off buying shares in his political future until we see how that plays out.
Sunak's best hope is for Johnson to fall on his sword whilst Sunak's stock remains high. That window of opportunity could be very small.
Sadly for Sunak, I can't envisage any scandal big enough to topple Johnson.
The Tory decsion to burn so much political capital and public goodwill now is a fascinating one given what is coming down the line. Hubris, stupidity or a bit of both? Probably the latter.
I am probably overwhelmed by PB Tory propaganda, as I have come to the conclusion, the country may be on its knees from government incompetence by the next GE,, but the Tories might still win.
I am of the view that the electorate is increasingly volatile and capricious. Therefore there is the potential for a greater swing than we have seen since WWII. Or there might yet be a swing in the government's favour.
That the government still leads in the opinion polls suggests that they might know something that I'm not seeing about how to win the political debate, but there's a long way to go yet.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
I think the 2.5% floor is inexcusable when there's a 20% cut going on.
If there was a good reason to have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension for the past decade then I don't see how that is affected by furlough.
I'm not sure if there was a good reason to have a 2.5% floor, but then I've never led a general election campaign.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
Can we have a 2.5% floor to public sector pay rises? No, its done off what we can afford and what is fair. The same should apply to the pension.
Sure, but that's a decision that applies to every year, not just to years where the pay figures are distorted by furlough.
In normal years where there is wage growth and inflation the difference between those and 2.5% is not that big.
In a year where wage for many is down 20% that is unprecedentedly massive.
The triple lock should be abolished for 2 years, this year and next year. After that it should be reviewed based upon the finances at the time.
On the subject of openings, can anyone - given that non essential retail is now allowed open give me a solitary good reason why caravan parks aren't allowed to reopen now. And no I don't have a caravan.
Not really no - other than possibly the need to keep some parts of the parks closed (assuming they have indoor facilities etc.). Same for holiday cottages and dare I say it travelling to second homes...
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
There’s definitely more to it, but it seems that PHE recruited thousands of people on six month contracts to help fight a pandemic, and these people are now furiously upset that the contract was only for six months.
Sadly for the government, these stories are now going to be coming almost daily for months, as every special interest group wants their pet project funded or temporary support made permanent.
Several thousand retired NHS staff came back to work in the crisis but presumably will now want to go back to retirement with our thanks. There was a chronic shortage of nurses before Covid as well. I don't see how the government can guarantee work for every former student who stepped up but I find it pretty hard to believe that there will not be enough jobs to apply for when their current contract ends. The backlog in "regular" medicine is going to be immense.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
Can we have a 2.5% floor to public sector pay rises? No, its done off what we can afford and what is fair. The same should apply to the pension.
Sure, but that's a decision that applies to every year, not just to years where the pay figures are distorted by furlough.
In normal years where there is wage growth and inflation the difference between those and 2.5% is not that big.
In a year where wage for many is down 20% that is unprecedentedly massive.
The triple lock should be abolished for 2 years, this year and next year. After that it should be reviewed based upon the finances at the time.
The Triple lock should be abolished for all time. It was an immoral bribe in the time of austerity when real wages were falling for an extended period and it is completely unaffordable now. Enough.
Gina Williamson doesn't scrub up too bad. And Pete Patel looks quite the ladies man.
Dominique Raab and Pete Patel are both SMOKING hot *swoon*
In a late entry and with a photo that didn't need to be 'shopped, Bryn Male ("Millie Wall"?) the Millwall fan rescued on the South Bank is snip snap snapping at their heels:
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
Thats the main thing you take from that story?
Sad really.
Hard to get all that worked up about temporary contracts expiring to be honest.
By the look of some of the downthread comments, the student nurses were taken on in mid-March, with an understanding that it would be until mid-September. Six months, and that would take them to the end of their course and the normal job start round. Now they seem to be being let go of at the end of July. So it's not about contracts expiring, but being terminated early. And newly qualified nurses are being left with a month or two of limbo. Now there may be something in the contract permitting that, and there may be more to the story than this. But if it's anything like this, then the best that can be said is that it isn't very classy behaviour.
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
Thats the main thing you take from that story?
Sad really.
Hard to get all that worked up about temporary contracts expiring to be honest.
Hunt seems to think if a promise was made it should be honoured.
The fact you don't care is your business Rob
What was the promise? I have already said if they were promised a full time position at the end of it that it would be another matter entirely.
The promise was that they thought they were going to be contracted till September and the rug is being pulled from under their feet at the end of July. It might be legal with a sharp clause in their contract. It might not. But whatever the precise legalities it's shoddy and poor.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
Can we have a 2.5% floor to public sector pay rises? No, its done off what we can afford and what is fair. The same should apply to the pension.
Sure, but that's a decision that applies to every year, not just to years where the pay figures are distorted by furlough.
In normal years where there is wage growth and inflation the difference between those and 2.5% is not that big.
In a year where wage for many is down 20% that is unprecedentedly massive.
The triple lock should be abolished for 2 years, this year and next year. After that it should be reviewed based upon the finances at the time.
The Triple lock should be abolished for all time. It was an immoral bribe in the time of austerity when real wages were falling for an extended period and it is completely unaffordable now. Enough.
Agreed.
TBH Labour will aim to make political capital from it being dropped in all likleyhood.
That would be wrong there should be a cross party agreement that its the right thing to do.
The triple lock has become the Dennis Moore lupin moment
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
100% correct.
The PB True Believers just don't get it.
The hospitality sector – pubs, inns, hotels etc – need guidance this week. Not yet another bloody lengthy review and more uncertainty.
The government's inaction is utterly pathetic.
It seems determined to break our world renowned pub network, the backbone of Britain.
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
There’s definitely more to it, but it seems that PHE recruited thousands of people on six month contracts to help fight a pandemic, and these people are now furiously upset that the contract was only for six months.
Sadly for the government, these stories are now going to be coming almost daily for months, as every special interest group wants their pet project funded or temporary support made permanent.
Several thousand retired NHS staff came back to work in the crisis but presumably will now want to go back to retirement with our thanks. There was a chronic shortage of nurses before Covid as well. I don't see how the government can guarantee work for every former student who stepped up but I find it pretty hard to believe that there will not be enough jobs to apply for when their current contract ends. The backlog in "regular" medicine is going to be immense.
Inclined to agree that while this 'looks awful' a few more facts would be extremely helpful to enable one form a sensible view. AIUI student nurses often have part-time jobs, both in quasi nursing situations and elsewhere.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
Can we have a 2.5% floor to public sector pay rises? No, its done off what we can afford and what is fair. The same should apply to the pension.
Sure, but that's a decision that applies to every year, not just to years where the pay figures are distorted by furlough.
In normal years where there is wage growth and inflation the difference between those and 2.5% is not that big.
In a year where wage for many is down 20% that is unprecedentedly massive.
The triple lock should be abolished for 2 years, this year and next year. After that it should be reviewed based upon the finances at the time.
The Triple lock should be abolished for all time. It was an immoral bribe in the time of austerity when real wages were falling for an extended period and it is completely unaffordable now. Enough.
Agreed
Inflation is 0.5%
As a pensioner couple, to apply 2.5% increase next year is just wrong and the triple lock has to go
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
I can fully understand the frustration but it seems to me that you are asking the government to remove uncertainty in a period of great uncertainty. Its just not possible. They are anxiously watching the figures to see if opening the schools and the shops increases the infection rate. They are trying to reach a view on whether 1m is safe enough, something that will have an enormous impact on the viability of your daughter's business, they are still scrabbling around trying to build a test and trace capacity (arguably the worst single failure to date) and don't know when its going to be effective.
My son's school reaches the end of term this week. In August they are going to have all their pupils that want to come (a WFH option is being offered). They are planning this on the basis of 2m separation, 1m separation and back to normal. It must be a nightmare for them but they are having to plan for all options. Unfortunately many businesses will have to do the same.
The children won't be going back until September – the idea of their opening over the summer is for the birds.
Going back to this question of "has COVID-19 mutated?" - this story may have bearing - the first UK patients (who caught it in China) weren't that sick:
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
I think the 2.5% floor is inexcusable when there's a 20% cut going on.
If there was a good reason to have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension for the past decade then I don't see how that is affected by furlough.
I'm not sure if there was a good reason to have a 2.5% floor, but then I've never led a general election campaign.
It's amusing to see that there have been lots of comments on the triple lock, and as far as I can see not one of those criticising it or calling it a 'Conservative con' has remembered either that it was a LibDem policy, or that the Conservatives under May were planning to drop it but Labour were planning to keep it:
It was actually a very good policy at the time Clegg proposed it: pensioner income had fallen heavily behind wages, and pensioner poverty was a real problem (and as has been pointed out, UK state pensions are still not exactly generous). However, mathematically it is not sustainable over a long period. It should be ditched, and the current circumstances are a good excuse to do so.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
You seem to want both a swift decision, early opening and time certainty to plan. Do you understand those are contradictory aims? The government can either announce that businesses can open and give time and space for certainty, or they can get businesses opened up as soon as possible?
They have said they can't give a date. They have said they are waiting for evidence. They have said they are continuing support until October. They have said this sector in particular is getting some of its support kept until next year already.
If the decision can't be made until 1 July then which would you prefer of the following two options:
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 1 August with certainty and time to get stuff arranged attached to the decision.
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 4 July with no time for certainty and planning but businesses able to open ASAP when they are ready?
Can you give me a solitary good reason why pubs with gardens can't open now, given that we have thousands of people every day wandering around air-conditioned hellholes like Primark and TK Maxx?
Thatcher also left office with government debt as a lower proportion of GDP and had the country running a trade surplus through most of her premiership.
Were those things not worth imitating as well ?
Absolutely. Can't these idiots find another North Sea anywhere?
It's amusing to see that there have been lots of comments on the triple lock, and as far as I can see not one of those criticising it or calling it a 'Conservative con' has remembered either that it was a LibDem policy, or that the Conservatives under May were planning to drop it but Labour were planning to keep it:
It was actually a very good policy at the time Clegg proposed it: pensioner income had fallen heavily behind wages, and pensioner poverty was a real problem (and as has been pointed out, UK state pensions are still not exactly generous). However, mathematically it is not sustainable over a long period. It should be ditched, and the current circumstances are a good excuse to do so.
I do not care who created it. I care that it has outlived its usefulness and relevance.
Going back to this question of "has COVID-19 mutated?" - this story may have bearing - the first UK patients (who caught it in China) weren't that sick:
Of course it may simply be they had a mild case....but there's still plenty to learn on this.
Going back to the theory discussed here early on as to whether viral load when catching the disease matters the first UK patients may have caught it with a lower viral load as the disease wasn't as prominent early on.
Plus the fact that travellers are likely fitter and healthier than others.
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
You seem to want both a swift decision, early opening and time certainty to plan. Do you understand those are contradictory aims? The government can either announce that businesses can open and give time and space for certainty, or they can get businesses opened up as soon as possible?
They have said they can't give a date. They have said they are waiting for evidence. They have said they are continuing support until October. They have said this sector in particular is getting some of its support kept until next year already.
If the decision can't be made until 1 July then which would you prefer of the following two options:
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 1 August with certainty and time to get stuff arranged attached to the decision.
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 4 July with no time for certainty and planning but businesses able to open ASAP when they are ready?
Can you give me a solitary good reason why pubs with gardens can't open now, given that we have thousands of people every day wandering around air-conditioned hellholes like Primark and TK Maxx?
The "triple lock" is a con. You realise that the basic state pension would be higher now if the Conservatives had persisted with the system of pension uprating it inherited from the previous Labour Government?
The 2.5% minimum increase was there under Labour. Osborne swapped the RPI for CPI which is a lot lower. Often in the past decade RPI has exceeded 2.5% whereas CPI has struggled to do so. Osborne also reinstated the link to average earnings at a point when he knew that the recession he was engineering would lead to depressed real wage growth, which greatly devalued the earnings link.
Yes, it was a short-term con, for exactly those reasons - typical of political short-termism. In the longer term it tends to increase the GDP share of all pensioners, though, and right now I accept that's not a priority. It'd be better to focus support on people with no other significant income.
To be clear, if the UK had kept the previous system brought in by Brown, that is the higher of 2.5% or RPI only, the GDP share of pensioners would have gone up more. Over the past decadee, the switch to CPI in 2011 has devalued the state pension more than the earnings link has added to it.
I don't deny the fact that todays pensioners have higher incomes than their predecessors, relative to the population in general. Two factors will I think contribute to that: 1. Significant additional benefits outside of the main state pension, such as pension credits and the winter fuel allowance. 2. Pensioners retiring today are more likely than their predecessors to have a private pension rather being reliant mainly on the state pension. Today's private pension scheme benefits were in the main accrued before schemes were revised to make them less generous, so the squeeze on private pension schemes of the last decade or so won't yet have had much effect on current pensioners.
Suspect a suspension for one year due to this technical anomaly wont be too damaging politically.
As long as it is clear it is restored the following year.
It would need to be a two year suspension.
How so?
Because its a two-year effect that the anomaly runs for.
In the first year there is a major drop in wages, triple lock ensures a 2.5% rise in pensions. In the second year there is a major increase in wages (but really a reversion), triple lock ensures a major increase in pensions.
To deal with the anomaly the lock needs to be suspended for two years, to cover both the fall and return back to where it was.
If, in general, you have a 2.5% floor to annual increases in the state pension then I see no reason why it wouldn't apply this year.
It's only the artificial wage increase from furlough that needs addressing.
Can we have a 2.5% floor to public sector pay rises? No, its done off what we can afford and what is fair. The same should apply to the pension.
Sure, but that's a decision that applies to every year, not just to years where the pay figures are distorted by furlough.
In normal years where there is wage growth and inflation the difference between those and 2.5% is not that big.
In a year where wage for many is down 20% that is unprecedentedly massive.
The triple lock should be abolished for 2 years, this year and next year. After that it should be reviewed based upon the finances at the time.
The Triple lock should be abolished for all time. It was an immoral bribe in the time of austerity when real wages were falling for an extended period and it is completely unaffordable now. Enough.
But that might result in the UK having the lowest state pension in Western Europe!
This is beyond pathetic. People are trying to plan. They have nothing to plan with. Breweries don’t know whether to start brewing. The grants are running out. Landlords are demanding rent. Furlough is running out. Costs are continuing. Losses continue to be made.
If July 4 is the date bloody tell us. If it isn’t also bloody tell us.
Long chat with Daughter last night and she is in despair. Her last throw of the dice is a GoFundMe appeal to see if that will help. If it doesn’t then she will be closing the doors for the last time, to add to the steady drip drip announcements round here of redundancies. There are families round here where both breadwinners are facing unemployment. Even Sellafield is cutting jobs.
Meanwhile the government’s big announcement is about DiFiD. FFS!
To be fair this is following the same timetabling system as previous lockdown lifts. The date has been announced as July 4 but subject to confirmation closer to the date depending upon the data closer to the date.
Final confirmation likely won't come in until days before - the equivalent date for shops was announced weeks ago but the final confirmation for shops being able to open on the announced date only came a few days before the opening.
Plan for July 4 is the statement as it stands.
Pubs and the like cannot open on the basis of knowing a few days before. It takes 2 -3 weeks to get ready, to get stock in, etc. It’s not just a question of turning up and switching on the lights. And getting ready costs money, money which most don’t have. And if the date is delayed, then some of that money is wasted and cannot be recovered.
FFS! I wish all those opining on this actually took the trouble to find out what it is like having to run a business like this, what is actually needed. There is little or no guidance available specific to this sector. Every decision costs money. The uncertainty is killing businesses which might otherwise have a chance.
These places and all those that depend on them are on a knife edge. Quite a few are not even going to make it to July. The government does not have a clue about what is involved, is not bothering to listen to those who do and is just pratting about.
All the news locally here is about redundancies. “Levelling up”? What a fucking joke.
It’s a nightmare for everyone, including those who want to make a decision once and be able to stick by it, not have to close things again later. Government and health authorities are going to be watching closely for any spike as a result of retail opening.
There’s going to be a point where a decision is firmly made, and everyone moves quickly after that point. The point about notice is valid, but the decision date is going to be the same in both cases - would you daughter prefer to be told on 1st July that she can open on 4th July, or be told on 1st July that she can open on 1st August?
Precisely.
A decision will only be able to be made on around 1 July either way when the data comes in following the prior stage on lockdown unwind that only took effect the day before yesterday.
Businesses have been given the date to plan for opening from 4 July but no guarantee. If they want a guarantee they can wait until 1 August but then a very valuable summer month of trade will be lost.
It's easy to want a good, right decision. There are no good, right decisions here that avoid harm.
Either have more uncertainty but potentially open for more of the summer or lose the uncertainty but lose the summer. I suspect losing the summer, losing July's trade, would be far more damaging. May and June have already been lost and that isn't coming back. Why guarantee losing July too?
July 4th is the earliest date. Nothing stopping anyone opening July 11th if they need some guaranteed notice and preparation time.
Silly me. Of course. Businesses that have had little or no income since mid-March while costs continue can afford to wait, while losing money and trying to find extra money for all the Covid safe measures they need to pay for, even though they haven’t been told about them yet.
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
I can fully understand the frustration but it seems to me that you are asking the government to remove uncertainty in a period of great uncertainty. Its just not possible. They are anxiously watching the figures to see if opening the schools and the shops increases the infection rate. They are trying to reach a view on whether 1m is safe enough, something that will have an enormous impact on the viability of your daughter's business, they are still scrabbling around trying to build a test and trace capacity (arguably the worst single failure to date) and don't know when its going to be effective.
My son's school reaches the end of term this week. In August they are going to have all their pupils that want to come (a WFH option is being offered). They are planning this on the basis of 2m separation, 1m separation and back to normal. It must be a nightmare for them but they are having to plan for all options. Unfortunately many businesses will have to do the same.
The children won't be going back until September – the idea of their opening over the summer is for the birds.
I gather from Teacher Grandson that there's a contractual problem too. Teacher contracts are for so many weeks in any given year. I'm sure one of the teacher Pb-ers will confirm, or put me straight.
Given how worked up people are getting about edge cases, I dread to think how the twatterati will react when the really nasty stuff begins.
Indeed. Extremely worrying.
Whilst I don't approve of those wanting to punish footballers, arguing for something relatively small like extending FSM over the holidays is easy to do as it gets lost in the grand scheme of things and no one feels they have to pay for it.
There's a bit in there about how some "left jobs for this". How does that work? I thought student nurses were, you know, students.
Thats the main thing you take from that story?
Sad really.
Hard to get all that worked up about temporary contracts expiring to be honest.
Hunt seems to think if a promise was made it should be honoured.
The fact you don't care is your business Rob
What was the promise? I have already said if they were promised a full time position at the end of it that it would be another matter entirely.
The contract was for 6 months, at the end of which they would be qualified. They are reneging on the contract, ending it in July not September. Given the backlog in the NHS because of delayed diagnosis and treatment this seems astonishingly short sighted.
Comments
I disagree with your analysis though. I’m on the cusp of 100k right now and, from 100k to 125k, I will be taxed at an effective rate of 60%.
It’s a huge disincentive for me to get another promotion or salary rise to the next level. Why bother with a 15k rise to 115k and a director role when I’ll only scoop an extra £500 a month for all the extra stress and effort?
I’d rather stay where I am for the easy life. Unless I can jump straight to £150k+ year with a huge promotion and salary rise.
That’s what happens when you overtax: people can’t be bothered.
And how have the devolved administrations fared by comparison?
The buck still stops with the governmentS but I fear they have been poorly advised.
4 July has been announced as the ambition but no guarantee so if you want to take a gamble then you can get stock ready for then.
Or you can open with bottles and kegs that can be used immediately and get real ales on later when they're ready.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1273190475059597313?s=20
For crying out loud. There is enough uncertainty as there is because of the virus. The government have one job - not to add to that by prattling about talking out of their arse. If they can’t give a date or have to wait for evidence then say so and provide continuing support which takes into account the nature of this sector. Instead of which they are withdrawing support and seem utterly clueless about the nature of the sector.
Because of course foreign aid is exactly what people here have been worrying about since March.
None of which, of course, is an excuse for an MP saying nothing or a licensing authority unable to show some flexibility under the circumstances and allow off sales / beer gardens / tents on village greens etc.
Best of luck to your daughter and her business, hope everything works out well for her and she can get opened up again soon.
(Anecdotal evidence from abroad - re-opening shops with social distancing and wearing of masks/gloves appears not to lead to a spike in cases).
The biggest criticism for me is not the lack of certainty on the date (there simply isn't any certainty) it is the pigheadedness of idiots refusing to give permission to businesses to adapt by permitting off trade - as well as the refusal to permit the opening of beer gardens.
Beer gardens should have been permitted to be opened this week. I see no reason why its OK to be inside the Arndale but its not OK to be outside in the fresh air supporting a local business.
That is a disgrace.
If a weeks extra fixed costs is the difference between a restaurant making it or not, its probably really not going to last this crisis anyway.
It is the nature of a pandemic that we get more information to make decisions on each day and week, so final decisions are best made close to the time. Its another reason Covid19 is particularly harmful but its not the govts fault.
He probably isn’t well enough or has time at present, with a new born, but I wouldn’t put it past him.
When the top rate was cut to 40%, a relative fired his tax lawyer & unwound some complex and expensive arrangements.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPHv6et6EF0
They have said they can't give a date. They have said they are waiting for evidence. They have said they are continuing support until October. They have said this sector in particular is getting some of its support kept until next year already.
If the decision can't be made until 1 July then which would you prefer of the following two options:
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 1 August with certainty and time to get stuff arranged attached to the decision.
Government announces on 1 July whether or not pubs can open from 4 July with no time for certainty and planning but businesses able to open ASAP when they are ready?
What the government should now be doing is having tailored programmes of support for the socially undistanceable sectors - not just restaurants and pubs but performing arts etc - and withdrawing a one-size fits all furlough programme.
I accept it's complicated...
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-if-your-retail-hospitality-or-leisure-business-is-eligible-for-business-rates-relief-due-to-coronavirus-covid-19
I wouldn't be surprised to see something this in the next budget to be applied to next year too.
But contact tracing is basic stuff. It didn't have to wait for any particularly level of testing capacity, or indeed any particular test; a system could have been set up as soon as the pandemic was declared a pandemic.
Instead, we gave up early on, and sat on our hands for a couple of months.
I'd agree that Hancock has most likely had some fairly poor advice on public health - and that is likely a contributory factor to the care homes debacle.
But neither of those things are rocket science. If I can understand them the bloody health secretary should be able to do so - or he shouldn't be health secretary.
I'd oppose that no matter what party backed it, but there's really only one party in Britain dopey enough to do so.
A similar story has just hit the education press, by the way. Teach First (who match up high-flying graduates with hard-to-fill positions in challenging schools) have unrecruited some of their 2020 cohort on pretty minimal notice.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/coronavirus-teach-first-drops-120-trainees-as-schools-halt-recruitment/
Not directly the government's fault; they run schools and teacher training in a fairly passive way these days. And many of those 120 will get in to teaching via another route. But I think most people with memories of the mid-90s will agree; it's bad when the government gets blame for things it's really responsible for. A government on the rocks gets blamed (and the blame sticks) for things it isn't really responsible for.
Sadly for the government, these stories are now going to be coming almost daily for months, as every special interest group wants their pet project funded or temporary support made permanent.
My son's school reaches the end of term this week. In August they are going to have all their pupils that want to come (a WFH option is being offered). They are planning this on the basis of 2m separation, 1m separation and back to normal. It must be a nightmare for them but they are having to plan for all options. Unfortunately many businesses will have to do the same.
We're not there yet but we might be closer to it than his more ardent supporters suppose. It can happen quite swiftly - a collective awakening to the truth - and when it does there is no nodding off again. The debagging of Donald Trump in the last few weeks is a useful template for what I mean.
Personally I don't trust social media "SHARE THIS" comments whatsoever. I expect its likely nonsense that says only part of what's going on.
That the government still leads in the opinion polls suggests that they might know something that I'm not seeing about how to win the political debate, but there's a long way to go yet.
If they were promised a full time position at the end of this it is another matter entirely.
No offence to your good self, but that would be the threesome pillow talk from hell.
This also applies to universal credit withdrawal, by the way, which should really be at 45% rather than 65%.
Defend it
Defend it
Burn whatever Political Capital is left
Burn whatever Political Capital is left
Burn whatever Political Capital is left
Cave in
Can anyone see a pattern yet?
Sad really.
I'm not sure if there was a good reason to have a 2.5% floor, but then I've never led a general election campaign.
In a year where wage for many is down 20% that is unprecedentedly massive.
The triple lock should be abolished for 2 years, this year and next year. After that it should be reviewed based upon the finances at the time.
The fact you don't care is your business Rob
I also think if a promise was made it should be honoured.
If no promise was made and this was a temporary contract then it expiring is reasonable, don't you agree?
Now there may be something in the contract permitting that, and there may be more to the story than this. But if it's anything like this, then the best that can be said is that it isn't very classy behaviour.
It might be legal with a sharp clause in their contract. It might not. But whatever the precise legalities it's shoddy and poor.
TBH Labour will aim to make political capital from it being dropped in all likleyhood.
That would be wrong there should be a cross party agreement that its the right thing to do.
The triple lock has become the Dennis Moore lupin moment
The PB True Believers just don't get it.
The hospitality sector – pubs, inns, hotels etc – need guidance this week. Not yet another bloody lengthy review and more uncertainty.
The government's inaction is utterly pathetic.
It seems determined to break our world renowned pub network, the backbone of Britain.
Step up Boris and CALL IT ON.
AIUI student nurses often have part-time jobs, both in quasi nursing situations and elsewhere.
As a pensioner couple, to apply 2.5% increase next year is just wrong and the triple lock has to go
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-53069427
Of course it may simply be they had a mild case....but there's still plenty to learn on this.
https://labourlist.org/2017/05/corbyn-vows-to-change-the-law-to-protect-pensioner-incomes/
It was actually a very good policy at the time Clegg proposed it: pensioner income had fallen heavily behind wages, and pensioner poverty was a real problem (and as has been pointed out, UK state pensions are still not exactly generous). However, mathematically it is not sustainable over a long period. It should be ditched, and the current circumstances are a good excuse to do so.
Plus the fact that travellers are likely fitter and healthier than others.
Any other questions?
Why have we prioritised retail (which can be done online) over pubs and hotels?
I don't deny the fact that todays pensioners have higher incomes than their predecessors, relative to the population in general. Two factors will I think contribute to that:
1. Significant additional benefits outside of the main state pension, such as pension credits and the winter fuel allowance.
2. Pensioners retiring today are more likely than their predecessors to have a private pension rather being reliant mainly on the state pension. Today's private pension scheme benefits were in the main accrued before schemes were revised to make them less generous, so the squeeze on private pension schemes of the last decade or so won't yet have had much effect on current pensioners.
*goes away to check figures*
Nah, you're ok, we're there already.
Hunt has retweeted a claim that the contracts for 6 months arent even going to be honoured hasn't he?
I'm sure one of the teacher Pb-ers will confirm, or put me straight.
Let's have Angela Rayner as LAB leader!