"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Japan had a slightly weird lump of excess flu deaths in Tokyo in March (there's an theory that they were trying hard not to find covid19 so they could still do the Olympics) but this was only in one part of the country, and only for a short period. There definitely wasn't lots of undiagnosed covid19 all over the place, as some people theorized.
The big thing Japan did was acting early, closing schools and asking people to cancel events and work from home at about 100 cases. They also restricted travel from the then-hotspots (China, Korea). They then briefly relaxed the response in mid-March, and didn't restrict entry from the new hotspots, and got the same kind of case growth as everywhere else (which I think refutes the various cultural theories) then tightened again which worked again.
These are the steps Rory Stewart was advocating and it seems likely that had he been PM, Britain would have avoided both most of the deaths, and most of the economic damage from the lockdown.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Previously he dismissed such measures as populist and not science based.
That's the other problem the UK government has. There was massive hubris in the early days; the invitations to euromeetings turned down, the media boycott, the cocky dismissal of what other countries were doing.
And hubris isn't always followed by massive success.
Brick Top : Do you know what "nemesis" means? A righteous infliction of retribution manifested by an appropriate agent. Personified in this case by ...
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
Yes, there are lots of class stereotypes in there too. Indeed Scarlett O'hara is looked down on for being Irish, by the other white gentry too, and that is part of her motivation to marry Ashley.
I recently watched The 1926 film The General with Fox Jr. It wasn't until the end that the penny dropped with him that the Confederates are the good guys in the film.
The "Lost Cause" was a very popular meme in twenties and thirties America.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
We desperately need to encourage people to get some sun and vitamin D. It boosts the immune system. If as I expect, no vaccine is ever developed, the immune system is all we have, so people will need to take vitamin D tablets all winter. We can then go back to life as normal.
A healthy diet also helps which is why I think some countries have done better, notably Japan.
Exhibit A: Prince Charles (71). He seems to eat a pretty healthy diet and had it only 'mildly'.
Exhibit B: the PM (55). He weighs twice as much as I do (for much the same height) and all the official sources claim he nearly died.
And BROTH!
The last thing you want to do to an immune system is "boost" it, how do you think RA and MS work?
What everybody really needs, of course, is a good herbal detox.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
Advisors advise, ministers decide.
If Cummings wanted an earlier lockdown, why didn't BoZo do it?
The scientists said no hence Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford, and Foster all acting in unison
If you want to attack the decison attack all four leaders. Remember Sturgeon has already said they were slow but she always states this is from hindsight
You are missing the point slightly, Big_G, which is that government is still arguing they took the 'right decisions at the right time'.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
The 1m rule is working across all of Europe. I don't see why it wouldn't also work here.
People are religiously committed to 2m. My lockdown buddy has the radio on all day and I don't know that a single caller supported relaxing the 2m. They were also furious at grading plans but I doubt supported going back for exams.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
It's no coincidence that the region of the US that had slavery also produced the phrase "white trash". The whole economy was based on a rigid hierarchy of privilege with the plantocracy at the top. Poor whites were viciously exploited, with the balm of racism to salve their grievances and give them someone to look down on. The civil rights era stripped them of that prop to their self esteem, but mostly left their economic and social grievances in place. The resulting anger has mostly been directed at minorities and liberals, reflecting centuries of conditioning. It should be mentioned that one of the civil rights movement's goals was to address the economic inequalities affecting blacks and poor whites alike, but as soon as King turned his attention to that he was killed.
Yes, that is why LBJ 's Great Society was as interested in Appalachia as much as the inner cities. Apart from Vietnam, LBJ was a great POTUS.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
Oh come on. Look at what other governments were doing at the time. Hell, look at the pb threads from the time.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
The Italian Government “two weeks ahead of the U.K.” went into lockdown on the 9th - what appears to have stayed the U.K. government’s hand was 1) the defective Imperial model which wasn’t challenged robustly enough and 2) the assertions of the behaviour scientists that the U.K. population wouldn’t wear a lockdown so timing was critical and best not to go too early., or the lockdown would breakdown near the peak.
Yes the government is responsible - but their sin appears to have been not challenging what has turned out to be poor advice - and in this case, Cummings appears to have been ahead of the game.
The government seems to have failed to ask two basic questions:
1) what are the risks of this strategy? 2) why is everyone else doing something different and why is that wrong?
Yes, the advice looks to have been very poor. A competent government would have asked the questions to establish its weaknesses.
Of course, if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up for any of the COBRA meetings in February where this was all under consideration, perhaps the advisers would have seen the subject being treated seriously.
On 2) I had the impression the government instintively wanted to do something differently to the rest of Europe in order to 'make a success of Brexit' or some such gubbins.
Agriculture - 2.1 Health - 8.9 Manufacture -10.5 Retail -14.5 Construction -18.2 Transport -18.3 Food/Accom -40.9
It is clear the restaurant and leisure industry has been devastated and it is imperative that sector gets back in business quickly especially with the summer months ahead
I heard on 5 live this morning that plaster has become very scarce and concrete is also in danger of being unavailable.
These manufacturers need to step up production as well
If anyone has any doubts these figure show the urgent need to re-open the economy and if the summer is lost, the devastation to businesses and jobs will be utterly beyond compare
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Japan had a slightly weird lump of excess flu deaths in Tokyo in March (there's an theory that they were trying hard not to find covid19 so they could still do the Olympics) but this was only in one part of the country, and only for a short period. There definitely wasn't lots of undiagnosed covid19 all over the place, as some people theorized.
The big thing Japan did was acting early, closing schools and asking people to cancel events and work from home at about 100 cases. They also restricted travel from the then-hotspots (China, Korea). They then briefly relaxed the response in mid-March, and didn't restrict entry from the new hotspots, and got the same kind of case growth as everywhere else (which I think refutes the various cultural theories) then tightened again which worked again.
These are the steps Rory Stewart was advocating and it seems likely that had he been PM, Britain would have avoided both most of the deaths, and most of the economic damage from the lockdown.
Thanks. Yes indeed, the UK seems to have done too much too late and thereby screwed the economy (although I did read that this bailout will 'only' be £0.4 trillion whereas the banks' collapse cost £1.2 tn).
Also we seem to have the world's least healthy diet except possibly for Ireland and the USA.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I am of similar mind. Not just for economic reasons, important though that is, but also for social reasons.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.
The government is terrified of being criticised for cases ticking I expect
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
The 1m rule is working across all of Europe. I don't see why it wouldn't also work here.
We like to be seen to be different from those pesky Europeans. If they said 2M, Johnson would say 1M. He is no different from Nicola Sturgeon; a childish desire to do it slightly different and exceptional and claim it to be "world class" when often it is the opposite
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
It is also a matter of time. The institutionalised racism of Empire was only ended in living memory.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
Yes, there are lots of class stereotypes in there too. Indeed Scarlett O'hara is looked down on for being Irish, by the other white gentry too, and that is part of her motivation to marry Ashley.
I recently watched The 1926 film The General with Fox Jr. It wasn't until the end that the penny dropped with him that the Confederates are the good guys in the film.
The "Lost Cause" was a very popular meme in twenties and thirties America.
Wasn't there something about anti-Catholicism as well.
Until fairly recently thought the attitude to the Confederacy was similar to that here towards the Jacobites.
Note...... will that bring the much missed JackW out again?
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Interesting point re institutional continuity. The concept allowed the French Fourth and Fifth Republics to attempt to wash their hands of Vichy. Approach with caution.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
And yet immediately it becomes a more complicated debate as a result. But no one wants that.
Could we institute a new constitution and avoid the question then? Due to lack of institutional continuity?
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Hereford is a market town essentially, I lived there for several years, it is only a city as it has a cathedral.
Japan of course has very tight border control and few immigrants
Japan had lots of tourism from China, including loads of tour groups from Wuhan during the first wave, then unrestricted travel from Europe during the second wave. So there was no shortage of seeding events and the success was clearly in preventing subsequent community spread, although I guess the relative isolation made it easier to belatedly bolt the stable door when they finally got around to responding to each wave.
There was also a little bit of quarantine infrastructure like a thermometer that takes your temperature just before you join the queue for immigration dating back to SARS (or maybe earlier). I'm not sure whether this does any good or whether it's just security theatre.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I am of similar mind. Not just for economic reasons, important though that is, but also for social reasons.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.
The government is terrified of being criticised for cases ticking I expect
I thought Whitty took the right line the other day. It is not a matter of eliminating risks, but rather of balancing risks and mitigating where possible.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
The number of people who have protested is in the thousands. They are outside and many are wearing masks. This surely is a small point for public health vs. millions of people across the country going to work indoors, non-essential shops and schools opening.
100,000 last weekend and many more this weekend most of which will have no social distancing.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
It's no coincidence that the region of the US that had slavery also produced the phrase "white trash". The whole economy was based on a rigid hierarchy of privilege with the plantocracy at the top. Poor whites were viciously exploited, with the balm of racism to salve their grievances and give them someone to look down on. The civil rights era stripped them of that prop to their self esteem, but mostly left their economic and social grievances in place. The resulting anger has mostly been directed at minorities and liberals, reflecting centuries of conditioning. It should be mentioned that one of the civil rights movement's goals was to address the economic inequalities affecting blacks and poor whites alike, but as soon as King turned his attention to that he was killed.
Yes, that is why LBJ 's Great Society was as interested in Appalachia as much as the inner cities. Apart from Vietnam, LBJ was a great POTUS.
The Robert Caro books (whilst long and incredibly detailed) are a great read on LBJ.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Japan had a slightly weird lump of excess flu deaths in Tokyo in March (there's an theory that they were trying hard not to find covid19 so they could still do the Olympics) but this was only in one part of the country, and only for a short period. There definitely wasn't lots of undiagnosed covid19 all over the place, as some people theorized.
The big thing Japan did was acting early, closing schools and asking people to cancel events and work from home at about 100 cases. They also restricted travel from the then-hotspots (China, Korea). They then briefly relaxed the response in mid-March, and didn't restrict entry from the new hotspots, and got the same kind of case growth as everywhere else (which I think refutes the various cultural theories) then tightened again which worked again.
These are the steps Rory Stewart was advocating and it seems likely that had he been PM, Britain would have avoided both most of the deaths, and most of the economic damage from the lockdown.
Thanks. Yes indeed, the UK seems to have done too much too late and thereby screwed the economy (although I did read that this bailout will 'only' be £0.4 trillion whereas the banks' collapse cost £1.2 tn).
Also we seem to have the world's least healthy diet except possibly for Ireland and the USA.
Rory Stewart was too clever and gifted to be voted in as leader by the membership of the Conservative Party. He is a man of leadership. Instead they went for a clown that is an political empty vessel who would tell them what they wanted to hear. They, and the country, are/will reap what they have sown.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
Yes, there are lots of class stereotypes in there too. Indeed Scarlett O'hara is looked down on for being Irish, by the other white gentry too, and that is part of her motivation to marry Ashley.
I recently watched The 1926 film The General with Fox Jr. It wasn't until the end that the penny dropped with him that the Confederates are the good guys in the film.
The "Lost Cause" was a very popular meme in twenties and thirties America.
Wasn't there something about anti-Catholicism as well.
Until fairly recently thought the attitude to the Confederacy was similar to that here towards the Jacobites.
Note...... will that bring the much missed JackW out again?
The contemporary romanticism towards the Jacobites, who after all were an offshoot of the original Tories, by those who consider themselves to be of the left baffles me.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
The 1m rule is working across all of Europe. I don't see why it wouldn't also work here.
No it’s not 2m in Spain and several other countries.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Interesting point re institutional continuity. The concept allowed the French Fourth and Fifth Republics to attempt to wash their hands of Vichy. Approach with caution.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Japan had a slightly weird lump of excess flu deaths in Tokyo in March (there's an theory that they were trying hard not to find covid19 so they could still do the Olympics) but this was only in one part of the country, and only for a short period. There definitely wasn't lots of undiagnosed covid19 all over the place, as some people theorized.
The big thing Japan did was acting early, closing schools and asking people to cancel events and work from home at about 100 cases. They also restricted travel from the then-hotspots (China, Korea). They then briefly relaxed the response in mid-March, and didn't restrict entry from the new hotspots, and got the same kind of case growth as everywhere else (which I think refutes the various cultural theories) then tightened again which worked again.
These are the steps Rory Stewart was advocating and it seems likely that had he been PM, Britain would have avoided both most of the deaths, and most of the economic damage from the lockdown.
Thanks. Yes indeed, the UK seems to have done too much too late and thereby screwed the economy (although I did read that this bailout will 'only' be £0.4 trillion whereas the banks' collapse cost £1.2 tn).
Also we seem to have the world's least healthy diet except possibly for Ireland and the USA.
Rory Stewart was too clever and gifted to be voted in as leader by the membership of the Conservative Party. He is a man of leadership. Instead they went for a clown that is an political empty vessel who would tell them what they wanted to hear. They, and the country, are/will reap what they have sown.
Top chap is Mr Stewart. A great loss to the country.
We like to be seen to be different from those pesky Europeans. If they said 2M, Johnson would say 1M. He is no different from Nicola Sturgeon; a childish desire to do it slightly different and exceptional and claim it to be "world class" when often it is the opposite
I can’t say the economic figures for April worry me. They were surely expected - desired, even, given that the government was trying to squelch economic activity.
June onwards are figures to pay attention to.
Yes.
Quite incredible, possibly one of the most incredible events on PB, that those calling for lockdown to be harder and longer are also blaming the government for the drop in GDP
I'd say surprising, but I predicted on here they'd do it right from the start. Sad. At least we can ignore everything they say now
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
I'm not so sure about North Africa. The Sultanate of Morocco is very long standing. I think that the Viking raids are so far in the past, and people of Danish descent are so intermingled with people of Anglo-Saxon descent, that they are of purely historical interest.
I do think that slave-raiding and piracy, directed by the Ottomans and their vassals, did have an enduring impact on parts of the Mediterranean and the Balkans.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
Read the book ages and agers ago. The big issue, I think, is around slavery, and the attitudes of the plantation owners to their slaves. Early on, IIRC a house servant, called, again IIRC called 'Pork' (!!) is delighted that his master has purchased Pork's wife from a neighbouring planation.
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
I think they are getting anxious, hence announcements about tourism yesterday - due to reopen mid-July. The lockdown is an absolute disaster for the Highlands and Islands.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Interesting point re institutional continuity. The concept allowed the French Fourth and Fifth Republics to attempt to wash their hands of Vichy. Approach with caution.
Was not William II involved with the slave trade?
Which one, the English King that succeeded the Conqueror or the Scots King that reigned in England as William III?
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Interesting point re institutional continuity. The concept allowed the French Fourth and Fifth Republics to attempt to wash their hands of Vichy. Approach with caution.
Didn't a member of our current Govt. say recently, when some criticism was made of a Conservative action....."we've only been in power a few weeks." ?
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
It is also a matter of time. The institutionalised racism of Empire was only ended in living memory.
People forget that while The Empire was racist, it was largely an economic exercise driven by organisations such as the East Africa Company that then used the British Army and its colonial offshoots to protect it. The jingoism that went with it was more a function of the attitudes at the time. Imperialism still exists, it is just in a different form. You don't have to be left wing to realise that we are, in effect, part of the US economic and military empire. They even have military bases on British soil, a fact that seems to be happily ignored by Brexit supporters who bang on about "sovereignty" . We are more a "colony" of the US than we ever were of the EU. That is likely to increase rather than decrease.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
I would put it in the category of so bad it's good. The sexual politics are at least as bad as the racial politics. It's way too long but Leigh and Gable have great on screen chemistry. It's ok as long as you understand that it is Lost Cause propaganda rather than an accurate depiction of American history.
The last bit is I think is the point - and why it will return in due course with an intro explaining as much. Up until the seventies at least, that was very much the account of post Civil War history taught in US schools.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
It is also a matter of time. The institutionalised racism of Empire was only ended in living memory.
People forget that while The Empire was racist, it was largely an economic exercise driven by organisations such as the East Africa Company that then used the British Army and its colonial offshoots to protect it. The jingoism that went with it was more a function of the attitudes at the time. Imperialism still exists, it is just in a different form. You don't have to be left wing to realise that we are, in effect, part of the US economic and military empire. They even have military bases on British soil, a fact that seems to be happily ignored by Brexit supporters who bang on about "sovereignty" . We are more a "colony" of the US than we ever were of the EU. That is likely to increase rather than decrease.
Only one of those two bodies could set laws the the UK was obliged to follow.
I believe Biden when he says he will pick a woman. I also think this pick someone from a swing state theory is overblown. Finally Biden has singled her out by mentioning her, that means she deserves to be front runner.
I also think Biden will be wary of picking an unknown a la Palin. He will want someone who is ready to be President as he will be claiming his team are competent and experienced. That narrows the field considerably.
Your opinion that she's not very good sounds like you betting with your heart not your head.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
In reality there's little real world perceivable difference between saying 1m and 2m.
How many people have got a tape measure out and marked out 2 metres? Maybe in checkout queues but for the rest of the time in normal life it just means to people "keep a gap" - and that gap is very frequently under 2 metres already.
It occurred to me the other night that the Conservative Party is hardly immune from the division and splits that have impacted world, the country and all the institutions within them. 80 seats is not, perhaps, the majority it was.
I can believe it though that would be depressing. Among the countries which have done worse including us it seems a question of degree and different actions dont seem to be huge.
Quite likely. Left wingers think everything that goes wrong could have been avoided with more state interference, especially if the government are not left wing, so they'll never accept it.
Maybe they should just do a remake of Gone with the Wind, stripping it of its problematic elements. Who cares about source material then?
A queasiness arises when the subservience of blacks to whites is portrayed as something perfectly natural.
That said, I think a focus on old film and TV is a distraction. All it does is present the "PC gorn mad" brigade with an open goal for a torrent of jokey belittling of the serious issue of racism. And some of the jokes, given it IS an open goal, will be quite close to being funny.
So imo we should stick to the knitting. Racism is a problem. Part of solving it involves an honest appraisal of our colonialism and its legacy. So let us not shirk this.
We like to be seen to be different from those pesky Europeans. If they said 2M, Johnson would say 1M. He is no different from Nicola Sturgeon; a childish desire to do it slightly different and exceptional and claim it to be "world class" when often it is the opposite
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
It is how I responded to Malc continuing his beatification of the saintly Nicola
She is in her comfort zone hiding behind stay at home and is 'feart' to come out of the front door
In her news conference yesterday she accepted job loses are inevitable but will look to the UK government to bail her out which of course is why the union is so important
She has earned quite a lot of kudos during this by being more "responsible", "grown up" and cautious. But the price of caution has just been quantified and it is huge.
I think she is pretty unassailable TBH, as most Scots infinitely prefer her presentation to that of Boris who comes across as comedy Etonian (not in a good way). However there are weaknesses and the Scots Tories have finally managed to get the failings over care home testing across, albeit by being OTT and calling for Jeane Freeman's resignation.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I am of similar mind. Not just for economic reasons, important though that is, but also for social reasons.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.
The government is terrified of being criticised for cases ticking I expect
I thought Whitty took the right line the other day. It is not a matter of eliminating risks, but rather of balancing risks and mitigating where possible.
Not a simple story to tell, but the truth.
He's also been good in the past in acknowledging that if we knew then what we know now different decisions would have been made. It seems to me that the government line is not that they got this right, that would be ridiculous, but that they made the right decisions based upon what was known at the time and the advice they were getting from SAGE.
Which is fair enough but my criticism is that SAGE were not being challenged adequately, were perhaps not being asked the right questions, the experience of other countries was not being learned from fast enough and the priorities for the next stage were not being thought through adequately and focused upon with the result we were consistently playing catch up, whether in trace, test and isolate (phase 1), testing, the lockdown, care homes, the app, etc etc.
At the time I recall Rory getting a lot of grief for not even being a science graduate. I am not either but it seemed obvious that the right questions were not being addressed.
The "Red Wallers" won't exist after the next election. There will no longer be a reason for them to vote Tory now Corbyn is gone, and to a lesser extent, Brexit is "done" (and my, will a lot of them be "done" in a big way!).
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Interesting point re institutional continuity. The concept allowed the French Fourth and Fifth Republics to attempt to wash their hands of Vichy. Approach with caution.
Was not William II involved with the slave trade?
Which one, the English King that succeeded the Conqueror or the Scots King that reigned in England as William III?
Bother; thought I'd hit the I key thrice! I meant William III, aka of Orange and the Boyne.
I've just watched the Major scene - it's fine in my opinion, but some people are sensitive to language.
You could make a perfectly fine Dambusters movie without anyone addressing the dog by name. You don’t even have to rename it or edit it out. Just have everyone referring to it as “good boy” or “your lab”.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
In reality there's little real world perceivable difference between saying 1m and 2m.
How many people have got a tape measure out and marked out 2 metres? Maybe in checkout queues but for the rest of the time in normal life it just means to people "keep a gap" - and that gap is very frequently under 2 metres already.
The difference is between pubs, restaurants, cafés and bars being able to run at 70-80% capacity and 30% capacity. Loads would survive with 1m distancing, almost all will go bankrupt with 2m distancing. In practical terms you're right the difference is not perceptible, but for the specific regulation it's a huge deal for the hospitality sector.
One question which doesn’t seem to have been asked is how much contact Britain had with other countries and how coordinated the response to Covid-19 was. We know Britain turned its back on the EU. Did it actually talk with anyone and if so on what basis?
For it evidently went in a very different direction from most.
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
It is how I responded to Malc continuing his beatification of the saintly Nicola
She is in her comfort zone hiding behind stay at home and is 'feart' to come out of the front door
In her news conference yesterday she accepted job loses are inevitable but will look to the UK government to bail her out which of course is why the union is so important
She has earned quite a lot of kudos during this by being more "responsible", "grown up" and cautious. But the price of caution has just been quantified and it is huge.
I think she is pretty unassailable TBH, as most Scots infinitely prefer her presentation to that of Boris who comes across as comedy Etonian (not in a good way). However there are weaknesses and the Scots Tories have finally managed to get the failings over care home testing across, albeit by being OTT and calling for Jeane Freeman's resignation.
I am not so much worried about her assailability as the consequences of her caution for the Scottish economy. They could be very severe.
We like to be seen to be different from those pesky Europeans. If they said 2M, Johnson would say 1M. He is no different from Nicola Sturgeon; a childish desire to do it slightly different and exceptional and claim it to be "world class" when often it is the opposite
Well he is certainly fat enough, but again it is far too flattering a comparison to Johnson. How long will it take people to catch up? He has no leadership skills. His skills are limited to bullshitting his way through life, cheating on his wife, writing the odd vaguely amusing polemic, but most of all not being Red Ken or Corbyn.
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
I think they are getting anxious, hence announcements about tourism yesterday - due to reopen mid-July. The lockdown is an absolute disaster for the Highlands and Islands.
Absolutely. July is too late. I mean this is tricky, the virus is not completely under control, we are right to be worried about it taking off again, but the economy cannot survive people staying at home much longer. The message needs to change in a big way. And I mean in days or weeks, not months.
I've just watched the Major scene - it's fine in my opinion, but some people are sensitive to language.
If you refer to "N*gg*r" the dog, the last time I watched it that was dubbed out.
Gibson walks along jauntily, the dog scampers up and he grins and goes "Hello there beep," - just like when a swear word is beeped out on pre-watershed TV. The c word for example. Happens all the time. Did not ruin the film for me.
OTOH, when Kanye West perfomed "All Day N*gg*r" at the Brits a few years back, and they bleeped out every time the word featured, that did spoil it. The song was stripped of its power.
One question which doesn’t seem to have been asked is how much contact Britain had with other countries and how coordinated the response to Covid-19 was. We know Britain turned its back on the EU. Did it actually talk with anyone and if so on what basis?
For it evidently went in a very different direction from most.
Do you think it did? I think our approach was pretty typical for western Europe. There were differences of detail and timing which may have had an impact but they were pretty modest.
It is true that many people are worried about the virus to the exclusion of everything else at the moment. Therefore, speaking personally I think I should focus on looking after myself, as saving society is impossible at the moment. Society cannot return to normal until people's minds have returned to normal.
Actually, there are other things besides the virus that matter, such as the economy and climate change. I would like to be still around in five years time when normal priorities are starting to return. This will happen because even the most fervent virus avoiders have to eat and need a roof over their heads. Society must adapt to the virus or it will perish.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Previously he dismissed such measures as populist and not science based.
I believe Biden when he says he will pick a woman. I also think this pick someone from a swing state theory is overblown. Finally Biden has singled her out by mentioning her, that means she deserves to be front runner.
I also think Biden will be wary of picking an unknown a la Palin. He will want someone who is ready to be President as he will be claiming his team are competent and experienced. That narrows the field considerably.
Your opinion that she's not very good sounds like you betting with your heart not your head.
Surely Biden's veep pick has to be a PoC in the current climate so who else is there apart from KH?
I've just watched the Major scene - it's fine in my opinion, but some people are sensitive to language.
If you refer to "N*gg*r" the dog, the last time I watched it that was dubbed out.
Gibson walks along jauntily, the dog scampers up and he grins and goes "Hello there beep," - just like when a swear word is beeped out on pre-watershed TV. The c word for example. Happens all the time. Did not ruin the film for me.
OTOH, when Kanye West perfomed "All Day N*gg*r" at the Brits a few years back, and they bleeped out every time the word featured, that did spoil it. The song was stripped of its power.
Anything by Kanye West could be heavily bleeped without it detracting IMO. Loved his attempt at Bohemian Rhapsody though, that was even funnier than Lil Wayne playing guitar (look them up, both are on YouTube)
Glad to have this clarified because it made no sense to me that the crass anti-German aspect would be a problem. I'd forgotten it had the N word being bandied about. Maybe when I've watched it that has been beeped because I definitely don't remember it.
Point is, Basil is the joke and is being sent up and laughed at. Sexism and racism are not being celebrated. Whole thing is OK for me. And still funny imo, most of it.
If we are going to take bits out it should be the scenes where Basil abuses Manuel. There, Manuel - the victim - is the joke and we are invited to laugh at his despicable treatment at the hands of his tormentor Basil. It's not great.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
The 1m rule is working across all of Europe. I don't see why it wouldn't also work here.
People are religiously committed to 2m. My lockdown buddy has the radio on all day and I don't know that a single caller supported relaxing the 2m. They were also furious at grading plans but I doubt supported going back for exams.
Is it religious commitment, or just caution ? For now, I think it quite sensible; if the figures for new infections continue to fall, and the contact tracing efficiency continues to improve, it could be reviewed within a couple of weeks.
Although government seems to have been very slow indeed to get things up and running, they are actually doing the right things. Our capacity to control the virus is improving at the same time as its incidence continues to fall. It's possible both to be impatient with government action, and at the same time prudent to counsel patience for another week or so.
Glad to have this clarified because it made no sense to me that the crass anti-German aspect would be a problem. I'd forgotten it had the N word being bandied about. Maybe when I've watched it that has been beeped because I definitely don't remember it.
Point is, Basil is the joke and is being sent up and laughed at. Sexism and racism are not being celebrated. Whole thing is OK for me. And still funny imo, most of it.
If we are going to take bits out it should be the scenes where Basil abuses Manuel. There, Manuel - the victim - is the joke and we are invited to laugh at his despicable treatment at the hands of his tormentor Basil. It's not great.
The scene is with the Major, when he defines various racist categories. It could be easily removed. The Manuel piece is great, IMO, it is meant to show what a bully Fawlty is. They both act the parts brilliantly. If we are going to censor every art form to remove bits some people don't like (blatant racism is a reasonable exception) then there wont be much left
I believe Biden when he says he will pick a woman. I also think this pick someone from a swing state theory is overblown. Finally Biden has singled her out by mentioning her, that means she deserves to be front runner.
I also think Biden will be wary of picking an unknown a la Palin. He will want someone who is ready to be President as he will be claiming his team are competent and experienced. That narrows the field considerably.
Your opinion that she's not very good sounds like you betting with your heart not your head.
I never bet with my heart not my head.
My opinion of her competence is based on her performance in debates, and in her campaign, which didn't impress.
I don't see how's she's ready to be President either. I wouldn't have her any shorter than 9/4.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Interesting point re institutional continuity. The concept allowed the French Fourth and Fifth Republics to attempt to wash their hands of Vichy. Approach with caution.
Yes. There are definite complications. An example I had in mind was post-Soviet Russia.
I think there are various aspects that you can look at to judge the extent of discontinuity. So with 1688 we see that war in Ireland followed in the immediate aftermath, and there were two subsequent Jacobite rebellions in the 18th century. That points to a fairly substantial discontinuity, though other factors less so.
In your example of France I think it's notable that de Gaulle opposed Vichy throughout - but I'm sure you could point to other factors that indicate continuity.
In the case of Britain some people might argue for the Great Reform Act constituting a sufficient discontinuity, while others are alleged to believe that history began in 1948.
I think it's a useful framework for this sort of discussion. The alternative is to disclaim any responsibility for the past at all - and all too often recently we have seen this extend to avoiding responsibility for the present.
There is no institutional continuity from the Roman Empire to the Italian Republic.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
It's no coincidence that the region of the US that had slavery also produced the phrase "white trash". The whole economy was based on a rigid hierarchy of privilege with the plantocracy at the top. Poor whites were viciously exploited, with the balm of racism to salve their grievances and give them someone to look down on. The civil rights era stripped them of that prop to their self esteem, but mostly left their economic and social grievances in place. The resulting anger has mostly been directed at minorities and liberals, reflecting centuries of conditioning. It should be mentioned that one of the civil rights movement's goals was to address the economic inequalities affecting blacks and poor whites alike, but as soon as King turned his attention to that he was killed.
Yes, that is why LBJ 's Great Society was as interested in Appalachia as much as the inner cities. Apart from Vietnam, LBJ was a great POTUS.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
It's no coincidence that the region of the US that had slavery also produced the phrase "white trash". The whole economy was based on a rigid hierarchy of privilege with the plantocracy at the top. Poor whites were viciously exploited, with the balm of racism to salve their grievances and give them someone to look down on. The civil rights era stripped them of that prop to their self esteem, but mostly left their economic and social grievances in place. The resulting anger has mostly been directed at minorities and liberals, reflecting centuries of conditioning. It should be mentioned that one of the civil rights movement's goals was to address the economic inequalities affecting blacks and poor whites alike, but as soon as King turned his attention to that he was killed.
Yes, that is why LBJ 's Great Society was as interested in Appalachia as much as the inner cities. Apart from Vietnam, LBJ was a great POTUS.
The Robert Caro books (whilst long and incredibly detailed) are a great read on LBJ.
Millions are hoping he can get that final one done.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
In reality there's little real world perceivable difference between saying 1m and 2m.
How many people have got a tape measure out and marked out 2 metres? Maybe in checkout queues but for the rest of the time in normal life it just means to people "keep a gap" - and that gap is very frequently under 2 metres already.
The difference is between pubs, restaurants, cafés and bars being able to run at 70-80% capacity and 30% capacity. Loads would survive with 1m distancing, almost all will go bankrupt with 2m distancing. In practical terms you're right the difference is not perceptible, but for the specific regulation it's a huge deal for the hospitality sector.
It's also the difference between a location which is high risk for superspreading events and one which is not. I agree that the 2m distancing rule can't survive for long owing to economic necessity, but abandoning it too soon (and we're talking a matter of perhaps a couple of weeks) is an unnecessary risk.
And it might need to be re-instituted later in the year. That would certainly be vastly preferable to a second lockdown, and with large scale testing now in place, along with track/trace/isolate, probably almost as effective.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I am of similar mind. Not just for economic reasons, important though that is, but also for social reasons.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.
The government is terrified of being criticised for cases ticking I expect
I thought Whitty took the right line the other day. It is not a matter of eliminating risks, but rather of balancing risks and mitigating where possible.
Not a simple story to tell, but the truth.
He's also been good in the past in acknowledging that if we knew then what we know now different decisions would have been made. It seems to me that the government line is not that they got this right, that would be ridiculous, but that they made the right decisions based upon what was known at the time and the advice they were getting from SAGE.
Which is fair enough but my criticism is that SAGE were not being challenged adequately, were perhaps not being asked the right questions, the experience of other countries was not being learned from fast enough and the priorities for the next stage were not being thought through adequately and focused upon with the result we were consistently playing catch up, whether in trace, test and isolate (phase 1), testing, the lockdown, care homes, the app, etc etc.
At the time I recall Rory getting a lot of grief for not even being a science graduate. I am not either but it seemed obvious that the right questions were not being addressed.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
The other villains, of course, being the 'carpetbaggers', who include among their number a free black man.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
The number of people who have protested is in the thousands. They are outside and many are wearing masks. This surely is a small point for public health vs. millions of people across the country going to work indoors, non-essential shops and schools opening.
100,000 last weekend and many more this weekend most of which will have no social distancing.
This is a huge test for the R number
Using the ONS estimates for the virus prevalence I think you'd expect ~60 of the 100,000 to be infected with the virus (you could argue less if you think symptomatic carriers would be more likely to stay home than protest, but let's use the worst-case).
If the protest acts as a super-spreader event and each of those 60 people infects an average of 100 each that will create 6000 more infections. It would be the first time there has been an outdoor super-spreader event (to my knowledge).
That's a lot, more than I was expecting - but it is a worst-case scenario and if the R otherwise is still below 1 then it might not be that noticeable as a bump in the decline.
By contrast if the R value for all the other 33,000 infected people in the country increases by 0.2 then they will infect an additional 6,600 as a result.
I'm nervous of people joining the protests, but it is hard to wrangle the Maths to make them responsible for any uptick in the infection rate that might occur. You have to make some unrealistic assumptions.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I am of similar mind. Not just for economic reasons, important though that is, but also for social reasons.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.
The government is terrified of being criticised for cases ticking I expect
I thought Whitty took the right line the other day. It is not a matter of eliminating risks, but rather of balancing risks and mitigating where possible.
Not a simple story to tell, but the truth.
Yes it is - I worry the public were do effectively spooked too many people are treating any risk as unacceptable when living in a society together means there is risk.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
The 1m rule is working across all of Europe. I don't see why it wouldn't also work here.
People are religiously committed to 2m. My lockdown buddy has the radio on all day and I don't know that a single caller supported relaxing the 2m. They were also furious at grading plans but I doubt supported going back for exams.
Is it religious commitment, or just caution ? For now, I think it quite sensible; if the figures for new infections continue to fall, and the contact tracing efficiency continues to improve, it could be reviewed within a couple of weeks.
Although government seems to have been very slow indeed to get things up and running, they are actually doing the right things. Our capacity to control the virus is improving at the same time as its incidence continues to fall. It's possible both to be impatient with government action, and at the same time prudent to counsel patience for another week or so.
Its religious because plenty of other places never had it at 2m they had another number- our scientists decided on 2 and I trust them on that, but the religious devotion I refer to is people acting like a reduction from 2 in unthinkable when many countries never even went up to 2 so it's not as though a reduction once past the peak to say 1m or 1.5m is so in cautious as to be unacceptable in principal even if we think it can wait. .
Comments
The big thing Japan did was acting early, closing schools and asking people to cancel events and work from home at about 100 cases. They also restricted travel from the then-hotspots (China, Korea). They then briefly relaxed the response in mid-March, and didn't restrict entry from the new hotspots, and got the same kind of case growth as everywhere else (which I think refutes the various cultural theories) then tightened again which worked again.
These are the steps Rory Stewart was advocating and it seems likely that had he been PM, Britain would have avoided both most of the deaths, and most of the economic damage from the lockdown.
The last thing you want to do to an immune system is "boost" it, how do you think RA and MS work?
What everybody really needs, of course, is a good herbal detox.
England is proud of its institutional continuity, traced back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and for Britain as a whole to the Act of Union in 1707.
I can therefore draw a distinction between the two cases to conclude that Britain should take a degree of responsibility for its slaving past, while expecting the same of the Italians (or the Norwegians for the Vikings, or sundry North African states for the Barbary Pirates, etc) would be unreasonable.
Agriculture - 2.1
Health - 8.9
Manufacture -10.5
Retail -14.5
Construction -18.2
Transport -18.3
Food/Accom -40.9
It is clear the restaurant and leisure industry has been devastated and it is imperative that sector gets back in business quickly especially with the summer months ahead
I heard on 5 live this morning that plaster has become very scarce and concrete is also in danger of being unavailable.
These manufacturers need to step up production as well
If anyone has any doubts these figure show the urgent need to re-open the economy and if the summer is lost, the devastation to businesses and jobs will be utterly beyond compare
Also we seem to have the world's least healthy diet except possibly for Ireland and the USA.
Until fairly recently thought the attitude to the Confederacy was similar to that here towards the Jacobites.
Note...... will that bring the much missed JackW out again?
Could we institute a new constitution and avoid the question then? Due to lack of institutional continuity?
There was also a little bit of quarantine infrastructure like a thermometer that takes your temperature just before you join the queue for immigration dating back to SARS (or maybe earlier). I'm not sure whether this does any good or whether it's just security theatre.
Not a simple story to tell, but the truth.
This is a huge test for the R number
Quite incredible, possibly one of the most incredible events on PB, that those calling for lockdown to be harder and longer are also blaming the government for the drop in GDP
I'd say surprising, but I predicted on here they'd do it right from the start. Sad. At least we can ignore everything they say now
I do think that slave-raiding and piracy, directed by the Ottomans and their vassals, did have an enduring impact on parts of the Mediterranean and the Balkans.
https://twitter.com/eurosluggard/status/1271317984363941890
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/08/yes-gone-with-the-wind-is-another-neo-confederate-monument.html
I have firmly-held beliefs
You are a bigot
He is Michael Gove
She is Sarah Vine
We are sick of both of them
etc etc
Up until the seventies at least, that was very much the account of post Civil War history taught in US schools.
I believe Biden when he says he will pick a woman.
I also think this pick someone from a swing state theory is overblown.
Finally Biden has singled her out by mentioning her, that means she deserves to be front runner.
I also think Biden will be wary of picking an unknown a la Palin.
He will want someone who is ready to be President as he will be claiming his team are competent and experienced. That narrows the field considerably.
Your opinion that she's not very good sounds like you betting with your heart not your head.
How many people have got a tape measure out and marked out 2 metres? Maybe in checkout queues but for the rest of the time in normal life it just means to people "keep a gap" - and that gap is very frequently under 2 metres already.
I've just watched the Major scene - it's fine in my opinion, but some people are sensitive to language.
That said, I think a focus on old film and TV is a distraction. All it does is present the "PC gorn mad" brigade with an open goal for a torrent of jokey belittling of the serious issue of racism. And some of the jokes, given it IS an open goal, will be quite close to being funny.
So imo we should stick to the knitting. Racism is a problem. Part of solving it involves an honest appraisal of our colonialism and its legacy. So let us not shirk this.
Which is fair enough but my criticism is that SAGE were not being challenged adequately, were perhaps not being asked the right questions, the experience of other countries was not being learned from fast enough and the priorities for the next stage were not being thought through adequately and focused upon with the result we were consistently playing catch up, whether in trace, test and isolate (phase 1), testing, the lockdown, care homes, the app, etc etc.
At the time I recall Rory getting a lot of grief for not even being a science graduate. I am not either but it seemed obvious that the right questions were not being addressed.
I meant William III, aka of Orange and the Boyne.
For it evidently went in a very different direction from most.
Gibson walks along jauntily, the dog scampers up and he grins and goes "Hello there beep," - just like when a swear word is beeped out on pre-watershed TV. The c word for example. Happens all the time. Did not ruin the film for me.
OTOH, when Kanye West perfomed "All Day N*gg*r" at the Brits a few years back, and they bleeped out every time the word featured, that did spoil it. The song was stripped of its power.
Actually, there are other things besides the virus that matter, such as the economy and climate change. I would like to be still around in five years time when normal priorities are starting to return. This will happen because even the most fervent virus avoiders have to eat and need a roof over their heads. Society must adapt to the virus or it will perish.
Point is, Basil is the joke and is being sent up and laughed at. Sexism and racism are not being celebrated. Whole thing is OK for me. And still funny imo, most of it.
If we are going to take bits out it should be the scenes where Basil abuses Manuel. There, Manuel - the victim - is the joke and we are invited to laugh at his despicable treatment at the hands of his tormentor Basil. It's not great.
For now, I think it quite sensible; if the figures for new infections continue to fall, and the contact tracing efficiency continues to improve, it could be reviewed within a couple of weeks.
Although government seems to have been very slow indeed to get things up and running, they are actually doing the right things. Our capacity to control the virus is improving at the same time as its incidence continues to fall.
It's possible both to be impatient with government action, and at the same time prudent to counsel patience for another week or so.
My opinion of her competence is based on her performance in debates, and in her campaign, which didn't impress.
I don't see how's she's ready to be President either. I wouldn't have her any shorter than 9/4.
I think there are various aspects that you can look at to judge the extent of discontinuity. So with 1688 we see that war in Ireland followed in the immediate aftermath, and there were two subsequent Jacobite rebellions in the 18th century. That points to a fairly substantial discontinuity, though other factors less so.
In your example of France I think it's notable that de Gaulle opposed Vichy throughout - but I'm sure you could point to other factors that indicate continuity.
In the case of Britain some people might argue for the Great Reform Act constituting a sufficient discontinuity, while others are alleged to believe that history began in 1948.
I think it's a useful framework for this sort of discussion. The alternative is to disclaim any responsibility for the past at all - and all too often recently we have seen this extend to avoiding responsibility for the present.
I agree that the 2m distancing rule can't survive for long owing to economic necessity, but abandoning it too soon (and we're talking a matter of perhaps a couple of weeks) is an unnecessary risk.
And it might need to be re-instituted later in the year. That would certainly be vastly preferable to a second lockdown, and with large scale testing now in place, along with track/trace/isolate, probably almost as effective.
If the protest acts as a super-spreader event and each of those 60 people infects an average of 100 each that will create 6000 more infections. It would be the first time there has been an outdoor super-spreader event (to my knowledge).
That's a lot, more than I was expecting - but it is a worst-case scenario and if the R otherwise is still below 1 then it might not be that noticeable as a bump in the decline.
By contrast if the R value for all the other 33,000 infected people in the country increases by 0.2 then they will infect an additional 6,600 as a result.
I'm nervous of people joining the protests, but it is hard to wrangle the Maths to make them responsible for any uptick in the infection rate that might occur. You have to make some unrealistic assumptions.