I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Bit racist there, what is your problem with older white men
I think the point being made is that Older White Men are disproportionately less likely to suffer domestic abuse. They’re more likely to be running everyone’s lives.
Is it back in fashion to be able to have a go at "gammons"?
To be a gammon one requires a certain political viewpoint, not just to be an older white male. To pick some random examples, Nigel Farage is a gammon, Sir Patrick Stewart is not a gammon, Morrissey is a gammon, Robert Smith is not a gammon etc etc. No one is forcing anyone into gammondom.
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Bit racist there, what is your problem with older white men
I think the point being made is that Older White Men are disproportionately less likely to suffer domestic abuse. They’re more likely to be running everyone’s lives.
I certainly do not suffer domestic abuse but also do not inflict any either. I do know that there is a lot of real bollox talked nowadays on many subjects by lots of minority self interest groups trying to impose their views and way of life on everyone else rather than just getting on with their own lives. People are scared to have opinions due to the visciousness, give me the old days when men were men and women watched the bairns and made the tea.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Bit racist there, what is your problem with older white men
I think the point being made is that Older White Men are disproportionately less likely to suffer domestic abuse. They’re more likely to be running everyone’s lives.
I certainly do not suffer domestic abuse but also do not inflict any either. I do know that there is a lot of real bollox talked nowadays on many subjects by lots of minority self interest groups trying to impose their views and way of life on everyone else rather than just getting on with their own lives. People are scared to have opinions due to the visciousness, give me the old days when men were men and women watched the bairns and made the tea.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
We are in unknown territory. The 20 per cent drop is not due to market failure like normal recessions but by government diktat. Some economic activity will be lost forever, some merely deferred. You say people might have run down savings but others will have built them up because there has been nothing on which to spend their earnings. It's not only furloughed workers who cancelled their holidays.
I think this is best compared to something like an earthquake or a hurricane, which hammers regular economic activity for a while.
In those cases, economic output bounces back fairly quickly. In the US, states which have re-opened have also seen economic activity come back fairly quickly.
The main difference is the impact on the public finances, which may last a generation.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Perhaps, because it would give him cover for a cheeky holiday in County Durham?
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
Oh come on. Look at what other governments were doing at the time. Hell, look at the pb threads from the time.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
Big fall. Odd situation, though. A lot of it may bounce back rapidly depending how businesses reopening goes.
One angle not mentioned too much is that schools failing to reopen mean many can't return to work. As well as being bad for kids it's not great for parents/the economy either.
My own turnover is probably about 50% of normal.
Mine is nearer 30%. The GDP figures are totally unsurprising but anyone moaning about us coming out of lockdown as fast as we are really needs to get a grip. As I have been saying for weeks now there is an economic imperative that is overruling scientific caution. As one our better PMs once said: TINA.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
Oh come on. Look at what other governments were doing at the time. Hell, look at the pb threads from the time.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
The Italian Government “two weeks ahead of the U.K.” went into lockdown on the 9th - what appears to have stayed the U.K. government’s hand was 1) the defective Imperial model which wasn’t challenged robustly enough and 2) the assertions of the behaviour scientists that the U.K. population wouldn’t wear a lockdown so timing was critical and best not to go too early., or the lockdown would breakdown near the peak.
Yes the government is responsible - but their sin appears to have been not challenging what has turned out to be poor advice - and in this case, Cummings appears to have been ahead of the game.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
But there had been about 7 known deaths.
Difficult to shut down an entire country on that.
We only have to look at the response of various PBers when the government recommended that they don't go to pubs the following week.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
Read the book ages and agers ago. The big issue, I think, is around slavery, and the attitudes of the plantation owners to their slaves. Early on, IIRC a house servant, called, again IIRC called 'Pork' (!!) is delighted that his master has purchased Pork's wife from a neighbouring planation.
The three local MPs in Poole and Bournemouth have said they don't support the taking down of the Baaden-Powell statue. They were elected with big majorities just a few months ago.
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
Eh? Near everyone in politics and the public wanted a lockdown and the GDP hit to come with it. The catastrophe of it therefore doesnt need to be spun, it's the response to the catastrophe that will need to be spun.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
I would put it in the category of so bad it's good. The sexual politics are at least as bad as the racial politics. It's way too long but Leigh and Gable have great on screen chemistry. It's ok as long as you understand that it is Lost Cause propaganda rather than an accurate depiction of American history.
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election:
At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VKuY0JCmiI
I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll.
It depends who viewed him as unfavourable and where.
Almost all Democrat hated Trump and slot of Republican voters knew what he was about but also disliked Hillary.
Hillary was disliked by independents and some of her base as well as Republicans and in the wrong places.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
Oh come on. Look at what other governments were doing at the time. Hell, look at the pb threads from the time.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
But IIRC we were told that the UK was three weeks behind Italy and two weeks behind Spain and France.
In reality it was less and the gap decreased as more coronavirus entered the country.
The lack of and slowness of testing was crucial then.
That's not to say mistakes weren't made - allowing people to go on holiday to Spain in the middle of March was madness for example.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
I would put it in the category of so bad it's good. The sexual politics are at least as bad as the racial politics. It's way too long but Leigh and Gable have great on screen chemistry. It's ok as long as you understand that it is Lost Cause propaganda rather than an accurate depiction of American history.
My sense is that it's as popular with the ladies as Dirty Dancing. For the love story.
Its pulling (be it temporary) has gone down like a bucket of cold sick.
The three local MPs in Poole and Bournemouth have said they don't support the taking down of the Baaden-Powell statue. They were elected with big majorities just a few months ago.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
I would put it in the category of so bad it's good. The sexual politics are at least as bad as the racial politics. It's way too long but Leigh and Gable have great on screen chemistry. It's ok as long as you understand that it is Lost Cause propaganda rather than an accurate depiction of American history.
It was surely a load of bollox but absolutely brilliant movie, almost as good as Braveheart and below Gladiator.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
Read the book ages and agers ago. The big issue, I think, is around slavery, and the attitudes of the plantation owners to their slaves. Early on, IIRC a house servant, called, again IIRC called 'Pork' (!!) is delighted that his master has purchased Pork's wife from a neighbouring planation.
The title of the movie is a statement of support for slavery. It refers to what the author considers to be the loss of the idillic antibellum Southern way of life. The full quote is -
“There was a land of Cavaliers and Cotton Fields called the Old South... Here in this pretty world Gallantry took its last bow.. Here was the last ever to be seen of Knights and their Ladies Fair, of Master and of Slave... Look for it only in books, for it is no more than a dream remembered. A Civilization gone with the wind...“
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
Oh come on. Look at what other governments were doing at the time. Hell, look at the pb threads from the time.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
The Italian Government “two weeks ahead of the U.K.” went into lockdown on the 9th - what appears to have stayed the U.K. government’s hand was 1) the defective Imperial model which wasn’t challenged robustly enough and 2) the assertions of the behaviour scientists that the U.K. population wouldn’t wear a lockdown so timing was critical and best not to go too early., or the lockdown would breakdown near the peak.
Yes the government is responsible - but their sin appears to have been not challenging what has turned out to be poor advice - and in this case, Cummings appears to have been ahead of the game.
The government seems to have failed to ask two basic questions:
1) what are the risks of this strategy? 2) why is everyone else doing something different and why is that wrong?
Yes, the advice looks to have been very poor. A competent government would have asked the questions to establish its weaknesses.
Of course, if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up for any of the COBRA meetings in February where this was all under consideration, perhaps the advisers would have seen the subject being treated seriously.
The three local MPs in Poole and Bournemouth have said they don't support the taking down of the Baaden-Powell statue. They were elected with big majorities just a few months ago.
Conor Burns has been leading the charge on that.
Robert Syms, our local MP, was rightly the first the comment - and will be the one dealing with all the residents' letters and emails. The statue is in his constituency.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
One big worry is that shopping habits will have changed. To take a sample of one, my mum used to love traipsing round the shops with my sisters. She can’t imagine doing that now.
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
It is how I responded to Malc continuing his beatification of the saintly Nicola
She is in her comfort zone hiding behind stay at home and is 'feart' to come out of the front door
In her news conference yesterday she accepted job loses are inevitable but will look to the UK government to bail her out which of course is why the union is so important
The test for the government is how much of the 20% can be recovered?
I have no idea what a par score would be, though. Making up 15% by year-end sounds like a lot - but we're still left with a 5% contraction. All fantasy figures if the government fail to keep the virus under control. I see that as the necessary precondition for economic recovery.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
We've been repeatedly warned that some areas area not bouncing back even if some will. I fear that even a faultless government of saints couldn't help us now and we dont have that. Plus we probably have either a collapse in local government or it being pared to the absolute bone to worry about. And do much else.
I already figured I was going to need to work until I was dead, probably a lot more have joined me there.
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election:
At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VKuY0JCmiI
I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll.
It depends who viewed him as unfavourable and where.
Almost all Democrat hated Trump and slot of Republican voters knew what he was about but also disliked Hillary.
Hillary was disliked by independents and some of her base as well as Republicans and in the wrong places.
100%. A majority of Americans did vote against him. Just, as you say, the wrong Americans in the wrong places.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
One big worry is that shopping habits will have changed. To take a sample of one, my mum used to love traipsing round the shops with my sisters. She can’t imagine doing that now.
I totally agree with this.
I love shopping. Much of my London work was on the KR and Conduit St. I would think nothing of dropping a few hundred quid at Hackett, or Ralph Lauren on Regent's St. Pressies for friends and loved ones were often from Hermes, Fenwicks etc.
Plus I'd eat around there at the same time.
At the moment, I'm not planning to visit London until, say, August? Maybe later.
And I won't be hanging around browsing....
Pressies will continue online, I suspect, and I do have some loyalty to previous favourites. BUT, for myself I Haven't bought anything but food/drink, toiletries or the odd book/movie since early March.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
One big worry is that shopping habits will have changed. To take a sample of one, my mum used to love traipsing round the shops with my sisters. She can’t imagine doing that now.
If that happens it has worrying implications for public health.
Traipsing around the shops. or even going to a supermarket after work, is surprisingly good exercise for many people.
Really interesting thread from somebody focus-grouping Trump voters. You might think divisiveness on race was kind of the whole point of Trump, and people who didn't like that wouldn't have voted for him. But no:
In 2016 Trump had not 'cut through' swathes of people clung to the HYUFD like delusion tat Trump would pivot to the centre at some point or that the Presidency would moderate him.
At its core Trump's coalition wasn't in any way unique. It was the standard Republican coalition of the last 5 elections minus some #nevertrumpers.
But now with 4 years of evidence some of this coalition (suburban college educated whites) are reacting badly. You can't spend your life criticising uncivilised debate by your opponents without it coloring your opinion of your team leader as well.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Previously he dismissed such measures as populist and not science based.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
The words "Streisand effect" do come to mind. If it goes back up fairly soon, it'll probably be more watched in the next month than in the past year. If I was more cynical I'd say it's more about the free publicity than anything else.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
One big worry is that shopping habits will have changed. To take a sample of one, my mum used to love traipsing round the shops with my sisters. She can’t imagine doing that now.
If that happens it has worrying implications for public health.
Traipsing around the shops. or even going to a supermarket after work, is surprisingly good exercise for many people.
It’s probably the only real exercise my mum gets. That, and gardening.
Most of lockdown has been spent gently cajoling her to do more.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
The timing of this is astonishing. Gove had announced full inspections at the UK border as a means of ratcheting up the tone of the negotiations at the beginning of this year.
Also it was announced yesterday that Boris Johnson will be travelling to Europe to negotiate face to face so it seems odd that such a move, which weakens the UK's negotiating position so much would precede the talks.
Frankly a wide open UK border with EU tarrifs on their side is the perfect arrangment for the EU to pursue: why would they want to walk that position back?
An extension would be a better deal for the UK at this point as it would enable them to get their border controls in order otherwise the economy is now wide open without the ability to product its home industries. I'm genuinely concerned there will be an extension now.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
We've been repeatedly warned that some areas area not bouncing back even if some will. I fear that even a faultless government of saints couldn't help us now and we dont have that. Plus we probably have either a collapse in local government or it being pared to the absolute bone to worry about. And do much else.
I already figured I was going to need to work until I was dead, probably a lot more have joined me there.
Yes some sectors, tourism, café culture, restaurants, hotels, airlines and airports, etc, are going to burn for a long time but the money normally spent on these things will in most cases be available elsewhere and can drive economic growth. Rishi has had a good crisis until now but giving away money was the easy bit. Steering us out of this is going to make Osborne's job in 2010 look like a walk in the park. And, like you, I have given up any idea of retiring too.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Utah cases were increasing at around 1000 per week throughout May. Since the start of June that has accelerated rapidly and is currently over 2400 per week, showing no sign of slowing. Arizona very similar. Florida new cases back above the April peak. Alabama and both the Carolinas accelerating rapidly. Texas cases also accelerating. California on a steady upwards path. There is plenty to worry about in the US - this is one of the reasons for the fresh stock market falls yesterday.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
80,000 people died in the UK during the 1968/69 flu epidemic. There weren't any lockdowns of any sort. I don't think anyone blamed Harold Wilson's government for those 80,000 deaths, because people were more sensible back then.
I can believe it though that would be depressing. Among the countries which have done worse including us it seems a question of degree and different actions dont seem to be huge.
I keep having a recurring dream about being in the middle of a shopping centre - people all around, almost as if I'm holding my breath underwater and the exits are the only way to get oxygen. My other half has told me it doesn't need too much psycho analysis in the current climate.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
One big worry is that shopping habits will have changed. To take a sample of one, my mum used to love traipsing round the shops with my sisters. She can’t imagine doing that now.
High street retail was in trouble before this and I agree that there will be some initial caution. But we may be surprised. On another sample of 1 I had a really bad RTA 25 years ago now, I was lucky to survive. I remember lying in my hospital bed vowing that there were going to be serious changes and different priorities. I reckon those intentions lasted about 3 months and I was back to racing around the country again. These habits are pretty deep rooted and will come back so long as the virus continues to fade.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I keep having a recurring dream about being in the middle of a shopping centre - people all around, almost as if I'm holding my breath underwater and the exits are the only way to get oxygen. My other half has told me it doesn't need too much psycho analysis in the current climate.
I may say that the GDP figures also make the positioning of Nicola look seriously behind the curve yesterday. Stuck behind her "stay at home" lectern she indicated that Scotland may allow pubs, cafes and restaurants to open up in another month. It just won't do. Alastair Jack (the Scottish Secretary) was on the radio this morning saying Scotland must open up again as quickly as possible. Stopped clocks do come to mind but he is absolutely right about this.
It is how I responded to Malc continuing his beatification of the saintly Nicola
She is in her comfort zone hiding behind stay at home and is 'feart' to come out of the front door
In her news conference yesterday she accepted job loses are inevitable but will look to the UK government to bail her out which of course is why the union is so important
She has earned quite a lot of kudos during this by being more "responsible", "grown up" and cautious. But the price of caution has just been quantified and it is huge.
GDP, wow. You know it's going to be bad but it's still a punch in the gut when it comes. Thats the next couple if decades ruined.
Depends on the bounce back. I speculated yesterday that there might be quite a lot of short term pent up demand from those who have done rather well out of the lockdown and are missing their normal retail therapy. But the businesses must be opened to allow that spend to be made. The Scottish tourist industry, for example, cannot wait a month for that money to be spent when their competitors in the south west, the Lake District and others are open for business. It would be catastrophic.
One big worry is that shopping habits will have changed. To take a sample of one, my mum used to love traipsing round the shops with my sisters. She can’t imagine doing that now.
If that happens it has worrying implications for public health.
Traipsing around the shops. or even going to a supermarket after work, is surprisingly good exercise for many people.
Exercising as a task in itself is disliked by many. I wish I was one of those people who enjoyed jogging for instance. Having a job or hobby which causes people to exercise is vital. Despite being a desk monkey I'm somewhat fortunate I'm naturally very fidgety so I move about a lot and walk around, but some vegetate and need something like you describe.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
Hereford is a market town essentially, I lived there for several years, it is only a city as it has a cathedral.
Japan of course has very tight border control and few immigrants
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election:
At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VKuY0JCmiI
I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll.
It depends who viewed him as unfavourable and where.
Almost all Democrat hated Trump and slot of Republican voters knew what he was about but also disliked Hillary.
Hillary was disliked by independents and some of her base as well as Republicans and in the wrong places.
Especially the wrong places. Hillary won the popular vote and although we all know that, it is still easy to get suckered in to forgetting she was not a particularly unpopular or bad candidate, merely an incompetent one.
"RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: Despite voting in a Tory government with a massive majority just months ago, Britain feels like a left-wing dictatorship teetering on the brink of anarchy"
A statute gets thrown in a river and the right lose their everloving marbles. The Government’s negligence results in the population equivalent of a reasonably sized market town dying of a deeply unpleasant disease and they accept it with some equanimity. In the words of the writer linked to above “you couldn’t make it up”.
You managed to understate the government's 'achievement'. ~60,000 excess deaths equals the population of Hereford, a city and not just a market town.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
80,000 people died in the UK during the 1968/69 flu epidemic. There weren't any lockdowns of any sort. I don't think anyone blamed Harold Wilson's government for those 80,000 deaths, because people were more sensible back then.
Quite.
But Japan has had no lockdown; the law doesn't allow it. After they'd done some very bad things, we wrote a constitution for them in 1945 and forced them to adopt it.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
True, though how likely would the 19th of March lockdown have been without big Dom pushing for it?
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
The words "Streisand effect" do come to mind. If it goes back up fairly soon, it'll probably be more watched in the next month than in the past year. If I was more cynical I'd say it's more about the free publicity than anything else.
It’s not as if it’s not available on streaming services. You can rent it on Apple TV for £3.49 today if you really want to. It’s hardly censorship.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
The horse had bolted by then.
The data changed. He changed his mind. And appears to have been ahead of SAGE.
Oh come on. Look at what other governments were doing at the time. Hell, look at the pb threads from the time.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
The Italian Government “two weeks ahead of the U.K.” went into lockdown on the 9th - what appears to have stayed the U.K. government’s hand was 1) the defective Imperial model which wasn’t challenged robustly enough and 2) the assertions of the behaviour scientists that the U.K. population wouldn’t wear a lockdown so timing was critical and best not to go too early., or the lockdown would breakdown near the peak.
Yes the government is responsible - but their sin appears to have been not challenging what has turned out to be poor advice - and in this case, Cummings appears to have been ahead of the game.
The government seems to have failed to ask two basic questions:
1) what are the risks of this strategy? 2) why is everyone else doing something different and why is that wrong?
Yes, the advice looks to have been very poor. A competent government would have asked the questions to establish its weaknesses.
Of course, if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up for any of the COBRA meetings in February where this was all under consideration, perhaps the advisers would have seen the subject being treated seriously.
As was pointed out (by Moi, amongst others on here) it is not necessarily the case that Government by Chris Witty is a crazy thing, but, as in fact Rory the ex-Tory points out very articulately, and we were all saying at the beginning of this thing, it is not good government.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
Its health risks vs economic risks.
And if future waves of virus are a possibility then building some more herd immunity over the summer is a good idea.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I keep having a recurring dream about being in the middle of a shopping centre - people all around, almost as if I'm holding my breath underwater and the exits are the only way to get oxygen. My other half has told me it doesn't need too much psycho analysis in the current climate.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Previously he dismissed such measures as populist and not science based.
That's the other problem the UK government has. There was massive hubris in the early days; the invitations to euromeetings turned down, the media boycott, the cocky dismissal of what other countries were doing.
And hubris isn't always followed by massive success.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
No, that graph shows deep declines in growth in 2008 and 2009 under Labour and consistent increases in growth under the Tories since with no decline as big as under Labour until Covid hit
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
We desperately need to encourage people to get some sun and vitamin D. It boosts the immune system. If as I expect, no vaccine is ever developed, the immune system is all we have, so people will need to take vitamin D tablets all winter. We can then go back to life as normal.
A healthy diet also helps which is why I think some countries have done better, notably Japan.
Exhibit A: Prince Charles (71). He seems to eat a pretty healthy diet and had it only 'mildly'.
Exhibit B: the PM (55). He weighs twice as much as I do (for much the same height) and all the official sources claim he nearly died.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisure industry by will be the ultimate disaster
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
The number of people who have protested is in the thousands. They are outside and many are wearing masks. This surely is a small point for public health vs. millions of people across the country going to work indoors, non-essential shops and schools opening.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
It would be too late for some if it was done today. Trying to find a sweet spot where it saves as many as possible without being too soon is an unenviable task. No doubt they'll take advice but its also a judgement call, and they will already be screwed whatever they choose. I hope they get it as right as possible.
The 1m rule is working across all of Europe. I don't see why it wouldn't also work here.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
Yes, there are lots of class stereotypes in there too. Indeed Scarlett O'hara is looked down on for being Irish, by the other white gentry too, and that is part of her motivation to marry Ashley.
I recently watched The 1926 film The General with Fox Jr. It wasn't until the end that the penny dropped with him that the Confederates are the good guys in the film.
The "Lost Cause" was a very popular meme in twenties and thirties America.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
I've spent years trying to avoid watching Gone With The Wind (my wife, her mother and my mother love it.. and it's a 3 hour+ soppy love story) but I might endure the whole thing now to see what the fuss is all about.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
It's a good film, but problematic in parts, this is the scene where the alibi for the KKK attack on "Shanty town" is created. Rhett Butler is the hero of the moment.
Didn't the film have the inhabitants of shanty town as 'white trash' rather than former slaves ?
In fact, IIRC, while the slaves are generally romanticised in the film as loyal to their masters aren't the white working class characters villainized as various types of criminal ?
It's no coincidence that the region of the US that had slavery also produced the phrase "white trash". The whole economy was based on a rigid hierarchy of privilege with the plantocracy at the top. Poor whites were viciously exploited, with the balm of racism to salve their grievances and give them someone to look down on. The civil rights era stripped them of that prop to their self esteem, but mostly left their economic and social grievances in place. The resulting anger has mostly been directed at minorities and liberals, reflecting centuries of conditioning. It should be mentioned that one of the civil rights movement's goals was to address the economic inequalities affecting blacks and poor whites alike, but as soon as King turned his attention to that he was killed.
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Previously he dismissed such measures as populist and not science based.
That's the other problem the UK government has. There was massive hubris in the early days; the invitations to euromeetings turned down, the media boycott, the cocky dismissal of what other countries were doing.
And hubris isn't always followed by massive success.
If you read the SAGE papers, you will see the reverse. Most of the government's action was taken on the assumption that a tidal wave of cases was inevitable and therefore: - we needed NHS capacity even if that risked transmission into care homes and - things like large events would not be a significant contributor to case load.
Debating what Cummings said or didn't say is a distraction (I wasn't one of those who obsessed about his private arrangements either). One needs to look at Government policy as it actually emerged. It looks as though the late lockdown was a tragic error (notably, Johnson hasn't denied it, just said it's too soon to judge).
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
I agree Nick but do we give all the protest marches a free pass
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
It might be too late by then for a lot of businesses.
I am sure you are right but allowing the summer to pass the leisue industry by will be the ultimate disaster
I'm suggesting we do the opposite and get everything open now. Put a 1m rule in place and get on with it.
I am of similar mind. Not just for economic reasons, important though that is, but also for social reasons.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.
Comments
After the 12 March meeting, Cummings changed his view and became one of the strongest advocates in government for tough restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the Sunday Times said.
Which I suspect is rather little, excepting it was made in the 1930s.
She's far too short and not very good.
The British government was a study in lethargy. And Dominic Cummings was fully complicit in that.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8412783/Britannia-teetering-brink-anarchy-national-emergency-says-Richard-Littlejohn.html
Yes the government is responsible - but their sin appears to have been not challenging what has turned out to be poor advice - and in this case, Cummings appears to have been ahead of the game.
Difficult to shut down an entire country on that.
We only have to look at the response of various PBers when the government recommended that they don't go to pubs the following week.
Almost all Democrat hated Trump and slot of Republican voters knew what he was about but also disliked Hillary.
Hillary was disliked by independents and some of her base as well as Republicans and in the wrong places.
Keep calm and carry on.
In reality it was less and the gap decreased as more coronavirus entered the country.
The lack of and slowness of testing was crucial then.
That's not to say mistakes weren't made - allowing people to go on holiday to Spain in the middle of March was madness for example.
Its pulling (be it temporary) has gone down like a bucket of cold sick.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/11/poole-oxford-seeing-first-stirrings-silent-majority/
“There was a land of Cavaliers and Cotton Fields called the Old South... Here in this pretty world Gallantry took its last bow.. Here was the last ever to be seen of Knights and their Ladies Fair, of Master and of Slave... Look for it only in books, for it is no more than a dream remembered. A Civilization gone with the wind...“
1) what are the risks of this strategy?
2) why is everyone else doing something different and why is that wrong?
Yes, the advice looks to have been very poor. A competent government would have asked the questions to establish its weaknesses.
Of course, if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up for any of the COBRA meetings in February where this was all under consideration, perhaps the advisers would have seen the subject being treated seriously.
She is in her comfort zone hiding behind stay at home and is 'feart' to come out of the front door
In her news conference yesterday she accepted job loses are inevitable but will look to the UK government to bail her out which of course is why the union is so important
I have no idea what a par score would be, though. Making up 15% by year-end sounds like a lot - but we're still left with a 5% contraction. All fantasy figures if the government fail to keep the virus under control. I see that as the necessary precondition for economic recovery.
I already figured I was going to need to work until I was dead, probably a lot more have joined me there.
I love shopping. Much of my London work was on the KR and Conduit St. I would think nothing of dropping a few hundred quid at Hackett, or Ralph Lauren on Regent's St. Pressies for friends and loved ones were often from Hermes, Fenwicks etc.
Plus I'd eat around there at the same time.
At the moment, I'm not planning to visit London until, say, August? Maybe later.
And I won't be hanging around browsing....
Pressies will continue online, I suspect, and I do have some loyalty to previous favourites. BUT, for myself I Haven't bought anything but food/drink, toiletries or the odd book/movie since early March.
Traipsing around the shops. or even going to a supermarket after work, is surprisingly good exercise for many people.
At its core Trump's coalition wasn't in any way unique. It was the standard Republican coalition of the last 5 elections minus some #nevertrumpers.
But now with 4 years of evidence some of this coalition (suburban college educated whites) are reacting badly. You can't spend your life criticising uncivilised debate by your opponents without it coloring your opinion of your team leader as well.
https://twitter.com/peston/status/1236739529303830530?s=21
Most of lockdown has been spent gently cajoling her to do more.
https://youtu.be/PgA0mJBAN1U
Also it was announced yesterday that Boris Johnson will be travelling to Europe to negotiate face to face so it seems odd that such a move, which weakens the UK's negotiating position so much would precede the talks.
Frankly a wide open UK border with EU tarrifs on their side is the perfect arrangment for the EU to pursue: why would they want to walk that position back?
An extension would be a better deal for the UK at this point as it would enable them to get their border controls in order otherwise the economy is now wide open without the ability to product its home industries. I'm genuinely concerned there will be an extension now.
And, like you, I have given up any idea of retiring too.
I wonder if Japan has had any perceptible excess deaths. The worldometer figures are:
Japan 7 deaths per million
UK 600 deaths per million.
I'm not interested in doing slightly better; before the 'next plague' I'd like to know how to do nearly that well.
My other half has told me it doesn't need too much psycho analysis in the current climate.
The situation was undeniably difficult, and there was lots of conflicting advice. I expect that despite the thousands of deaths apparently arising, many people might forgive a mistake. What they would not forgive is doing the same thing *again* by over-hasty opening up for political reasons. We are really quite close to bringing the pandemic right down. It would be quite mad to put that at risk so that people can mingle freely in July rather than September. If that difference means that otherwise healthy businesses would go under, then help the businesses directly - don't extend the pandemic so that the Dog & Duck can have 100 customers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53013189
If you want to lay him at anything with a 2 handle I'd recommend doing it fairly soon.
Japan of course has very tight border control and few immigrants
But Japan has had no lockdown; the law doesn't allow it. After they'd done some very bad things, we wrote a constitution for them in 1945 and forced them to adopt it.
And if future waves of virus are a possibility then building some more herd immunity over the summer is a good idea.
It is impossible to enforce social distancing but I have no idea just how these marches will reflect in the R rate over the next three weeks
If R remains below 1 by the end of the month I expect Boris will reduce the 2 metre rule by mid July and open the leisure industry including pubs, restaurants, hotels, caravan parks etc
And hubris isn't always followed by massive success.
https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1271337568672657410?s=19
No, I've got it - raceblind casting.
https://twitter.com/wabbey/status/1271353892874465280?s=21
A healthy diet also helps which is why I think some countries have done better, notably Japan.
Exhibit A: Prince Charles (71). He seems to eat a pretty healthy diet and had it only 'mildly'.
Exhibit B: the PM (55). He weighs twice as much as I do (for much the same height) and all the official sources claim he nearly died.
StayHomeRuinHealthDestroyJobs
I recently watched The 1926 film The General with Fox Jr. It wasn't until the end that the penny dropped with him that the Confederates are the good guys in the film.
The "Lost Cause" was a very popular meme in twenties and thirties America.
The civil rights era stripped them of that prop to their self esteem, but mostly left their economic and social grievances in place. The resulting anger has mostly been directed at minorities and liberals, reflecting centuries of conditioning.
It should be mentioned that one of the civil rights movement's goals was to address the economic inequalities affecting blacks and poor whites alike, but as soon as King turned his attention to that he was killed.
- we needed NHS capacity even if that risked transmission into care homes and
- things like large events would not be a significant contributor to case load.
They are an interesting read. Check them out.
I expect that cases will tick up, but we do need to take the plunge with less strict measures.