Bringing Sanders' supporters to Trump seems unlikely; certainly not "large parts". For a start, Bernie himself might be persuaded to make a pro-Biden speech.
Ditching Pence would not be too shocking. Pence is no longer needed to attract the Christian right, and Pence is too susceptible to the sort of brain-fade moments that Trump will want to attack Biden for. The trouble with Tulsi is it looks too much like a stunt. There's no upside.
I'm sure Bernie would stump for Biden, but Bernie isn't as popular with the Bernie Bros as he used to be... Bernie-Trump swing voters are definitely a thing, this is why Trump kept bringing up Bernie on any pretext during the 2016 campaign. Also note that the surprise gains for Trump, Michigan and Wisconsin, were strong Bernie states.
I don't think Trump has ever been bothered by things looking like a stunt. Change the game, focus on populism vs the establishment, bring in some freshness and youth against the Dems' geriatric insider and his (assuming Kamala) dull careerist hack of a VP.
Bringing Sanders' supporters to Trump seems unlikely; certainly not "large parts". For a start, Bernie himself might be persuaded to make a pro-Biden speech.
Ditching Pence would not be too shocking. Pence is no longer needed to attract the Christian right, and Pence is too susceptible to the sort of brain-fade moments that Trump will want to attack Biden for. The trouble with Tulsi is it looks too much like a stunt. There's no upside.
I'm sure Bernie would stump for Biden, but Bernie isn't as popular with the Bernie Bros as he used to be... Bernie-Trump swing voters are definitely a thing, this is why Trump kept bringing up Bernie on any pretext during the 2016 campaign. Also note that the surprise gains for Trump, Michigan and Wisconsin, were strong Bernie states.
I don't think Trump has ever been bothered by things looking like a stunt. Change the game, focus on populism vs the establishment, bring in some freshness and youth against the Dems' geriatric insider and his (assuming Kamala) dull careerist hack of a VP.
It also assumes TG will not persuade more never-Trump Republicans to stay at home. However, so far as I can see there is no betting market on GOP VP nominee so we can afford to wait for the announcement.
Really interesting thread from somebody focus-grouping Trump voters. You might think divisiveness on race was kind of the whole point of Trump, and people who didn't like that wouldn't have voted for him. But no:
Really interesting thread from somebody focus-grouping Trump voters. You might think divisiveness on race was kind of the whole point of Trump, and people who didn't like that wouldn't have voted for him. But no:
It is interesting to reflect on those findings applied to British politics, and SKS's gentle, more in sorrow than anger probing of Boris at PMQs; even pre-2017 Jeremy Corbyn reading constituents' questions and asking Theresa May about buses.
Guesses: more efficient appliances; solar panels on people's roofs; global warming meaning less need for heating, and in Britain we do not compensate by having as much air-conditioning installed as other countries.
Working from home may reverse some of these trends, as it is now one lightbulb per worker. Electric cars too.
Around June 11 2016 Clinton led 5-12 point in the polls and still lost.
Yes, and that's why Biden is only a narrow favorite at this point in time.
One thing I don't think is fully appreciated is how narrow Trump's margin really was. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation where you apply a random number of +2.5 to -2.5% on each of the individual states (while keeping the overall vote shares at 48-46) - i.e. the kind of random variation that we'd expect between elections even if the top-line doesn't change - then you see Trump dropping (on average) about 30 EVs. He ends up President in most scenarios... but far from all.
It's not random variation though is it? Certain groups of states are heavily correlated. Fivethirtyeight's models take this kind of correlation into account, which is the main reason their model gave Trump a 30% chance of winning on the eve of the last election when other models gave him very little chance.
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
Really interesting thread from somebody focus-grouping Trump voters. You might think divisiveness on race was kind of the whole point of Trump, and people who didn't like that wouldn't have voted for him. But no:
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Do you think UKTV follow politicalbetting.com?! A few days ago I said that I nowadays found it impossible to watch the Germans episode (it's actually the Fire Drill) of Fawlty Towers. Not so much because of the Germans but because of the Major's words about West Indians, Indians and Pakistanis. Totally unacceptable in this day and age.
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Domestic abuse is a serious matter. Janice Turner in thevTimes yesterday was aaying penises could be female. Thats enough.
Boris Johnson had three meetings with a billionaire property developer in the months before he approved a housing scheme on the Isle of Dogs in east London, The Times can report.
Mr Johnson met Mr Desmond, then owner of the Daily Express, for drinks at the five-star Corinthia hotel in Westminster in September 2015, and had lunch with him later that month. They met again in January 2016.
The planning application was called in by Mr Johnson three weeks later and approved by his deputy, Sir Edward Lister, in April, despite objections from the local council.
Sir Edward, now the prime minister’s chief strategic adviser in Downing Street, approved the first version of the scheme after the developers increased the proportion of affordable housing.
The West India Quay one is more interesting, because Mayor Sadiq seems to have taken pride in committing a criminal offence carrying a potential 2 years in jail and unlimited fine.
I thought we already discussed this and established that the Docklands statue is not included in the listed building status of the nearby building as it was erected almost fifty years after the building was listed?
It was erected ages ago. Taken away and put back recently.
Doesn't sound like a planning issue given lapse of time. Like the Cummings's second home.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
Don't Like, Don't Watch, is not a bad rule of thumb.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
Given how bad the 2008 crisis was - bearing in mind at one point we were literally hours away from a planet wide collapse of the entire economic system - it’s pretty astonishing.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
“The UK's economy shrank by 20.4% in April - the largest monthly contraction on record - as the full impact of lockdown was felt. The monthly decline was outlined in figures reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The fall is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn.”
"April's fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost 10 times larger than the steepest pre-Covid-19 fall," said Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS, "In April, the economy was around 25% smaller than in February.
Biden comes over as someone from a bygone, gentler age. You could imagine James Stewart saying this in "Mr Smith Goes to Washington".
I can see it working.
My principal worry about this election is that Americans love and generally go for 'the story', and it isn't clear to me how compelling Biden's story is?
Big fall. Odd situation, though. A lot of it may bounce back rapidly depending how businesses reopening goes.
One angle not mentioned too much is that schools failing to reopen mean many can't return to work. As well as being bad for kids it's not great for parents/the economy either.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
According to other reports, if the scientists had listened to Cummings there would have been no lockdown at all.
According to any reasonable interpretation of Cummings’ past, both are probably true depending on which day of the week it was and what he wanted people to think at the time.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
Big G, Britain has already had one of the worst outbreaks anywhere in the developed world. Dominic Cummings participated in that catastrophe. Only slavishly loyal Conservatives would see any way to explain away tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
(PS I’d wonder where these rumours are coming from. Dominic Cummings rewrote his blog and then claimed he’d been prescient. Try not to be too gullible as well as servile.)
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
You are aware that 99% of shops were shut, most manufacturers were shut, all pubs, cinemas, restaurants, nightclubs were shut. And people stayed home most of the time. What did you expect?
According to other reports, if the scientists had listened to Cummings there would have been no lockdown at all.
According to any reasonable interpretation of Cummings’ past, both are probably true depending on which day of the week it was and what he wanted people to think at the time.
Maybe we should check what his blog said at the time...
Big fall. Odd situation, though. A lot of it may bounce back rapidly depending how businesses reopening goes.
One angle not mentioned too much is that schools failing to reopen mean many can't return to work. As well as being bad for kids it's not great for parents/the economy either.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
Was that from a close Downing Street source posted in the Barnard Castle Gazette?
You may well find that Cummings did argue for earlier close down and the scientists rejected it and all four regions of the UK followed their advice
And no doubt his blog will be retrospectively edited to prove it. 🤷♂️ If that Rose garden press conference taught us anything , it is that you can’t trust any word that man says.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
Advisors advise, ministers decide.
If Cummings wanted an earlier lockdown, why didn't BoZo do it?
The scientists said no hence Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford, and Foster all acting in unison
If you want to attack the decison attack all four leaders. Remember Sturgeon has already said they were slow but she always states this is from hindsight
I can’t say the economic figures for April worry me. They were surely expected - desired, even, given that the government was trying to squelch economic activity.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
Was that from a close Downing Street source posted in the Barnard Castle Gazette?
You may well find that Cummings did argue for earlier close down and the scientists rejected it and all four regions of the UK followed their advice
And no doubt his blog will be retrospectively edited to prove it. 🤷♂️ If that Rose garden press conference taught us anything , it is that you can’t trust any word that man says.
Your dislike of Cummings seems to overpower your reason. Any public enquiry will seek independent witness statements of the meetings and Cummings role in them. If it then confirms Cummings did demand an earlier lockdown will you apologise
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
Given how bad the 2008 crisis was - bearing in mind at one point we were literally hours away from a planet wide collapse of the entire economic system - it’s pretty astonishing.
Were we? A number of banks might have gone under - which, admittedly would have made things worse in the short to medium term - but people would have still gone to the pub.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
Well this flies completely in the face of yesterday's market assessment. The falls were based on fears of a second wave.
Until there's a vaccine or cure you just cannot make those assertions (assumptions) Robert.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
Given how bad the 2008 crisis was - bearing in mind at one point we were literally hours away from a planet wide collapse of the entire economic system - it’s pretty astonishing.
Were we? A number of banks might have gone under - which, admittedly would have made things worse in the short to medium term - but people would have still gone to the pub.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
Big G, Britain has already had one of the worst outbreaks anywhere in the developed world. Dominic Cummings participated in that catastrophe. Only slavishly loyal Conservatives would see any way to explain away tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
(PS I’d wonder where these rumours are coming from. Dominic Cummings rewrote his blog and then claimed he’d been prescient. Try not to be too gullible as well as servile.)
Your last sentence can be applied in equal measure to yourself
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
Given how bad the 2008 crisis was - bearing in mind at one point we were literally hours away from a planet wide collapse of the entire economic system - it’s pretty astonishing.
Were we? A number of banks might have gone under - which, admittedly would have made things worse in the short to medium term - but people would have still gone to the pub.
How, if they couldn’t access money?
The tax payer would have bailed them out pretty quickly.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
Overall savings rates have been significantly up during the crisis period, I believe
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
Was that from a close Downing Street source posted in the Barnard Castle Gazette?
You may well find that Cummings did argue for earlier close down and the scientists rejected it and all four regions of the UK followed their advice
And no doubt his blog will be retrospectively edited to prove it. 🤷♂️ If that Rose garden press conference taught us anything , it is that you can’t trust any word that man says.
Your dislike of Cummings seems to overpower your reason. Any public enquiry will seek independent witness statements of the meetings and Cummings role in them. If it then confirms Cummings did demand an earlier lockdown will you apologise
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
Given how bad the 2008 crisis was - bearing in mind at one point we were literally hours away from a planet wide collapse of the entire economic system - it’s pretty astonishing.
Were we? A number of banks might have gone under - which, admittedly would have made things worse in the short to medium term - but people would have still gone to the pub.
How, if they couldn’t access money?
The tax payer would have bailed them out pretty quickly.
We did. That’s why the economy didn’t collapse!
The bailout plan was a success, on its own terms. The problem was that if the then government had been properly monitoring the banks, while they might have been less profitable in the short term they would probably never have needed bailing out at all. As the Australian banks did not.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
Overall savings rates have been significantly up during the crisis period, I believe
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
We are in unknown territory. The 20 per cent drop is not due to market failure like normal recessions but by government diktat. Some economic activity will be lost forever, some merely deferred. You say people might have run down savings but others will have built them up because there has been nothing on which to spend their earnings. It's not only furloughed workers who cancelled their holidays.
It’s going to be interesting to see the govt and its supporters try to spin itself out of this latest catastrophe.
"... which started in China" Hold on though. Let's hope there is a new thread before the pb Tories notice that graph shows George Osborne inherited a growing economy from Labour.
Would be more helpful to Labour if they didn’t. It draws attention to the year-long downturn beforehand...
April 2020 was worse than the whole 2008 economic crisis. That’s astonishing.
It really isn't.
Given how bad the 2008 crisis was - bearing in mind at one point we were literally hours away from a planet wide collapse of the entire economic system - it’s pretty astonishing.
Were we? A number of banks might have gone under - which, admittedly would have made things worse in the short to medium term - but people would have still gone to the pub.
How, if they couldn’t access money?
The tax payer would have bailed them out pretty quickly.
We did. That’s why the economy didn’t collapse!
The bailout plan was a success, on its own terms. The problem was that if the then government had been properly monitoring the banks, while they might have been less profitable in the short term they would probably never have needed bailing out at all. As the Australian banks did not.
Have a good morning.
The point I'm making is that there is a difference between the economy and the banking system. The crisis in 2008 was related to a specific industry, which just happens to be quite important to the day-to-day functioning of the economy. Right now it's the economy itself that is in trouble.
The government could scrap all measures relating to COVID-19 today and it would make very little difference in my opinion.
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Bit racist there, what is your problem with older white men
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
Overall savings rates have been significantly up during the crisis period, I believe
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Bit racist there, what is your problem with older white men
I think the point being made is that Older White Men are disproportionately less likely to suffer domestic abuse. They’re more likely to be running everyone’s lives.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
Overall savings rates have been significantly up during the crisis period, I believe
Says it all really!
It says the shops have been shut.
And a lot of people have been protected by the furlough scheme so savings haven't been run down.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
Advisors advise, ministers decide.
If Cummings wanted an earlier lockdown, why didn't BoZo do it?
Perhaps it was one of those unusual occassions when Boris showed some backbone.
Everyone knows Johnson is pathelogically averse to what he would consider restrictive and illiberal government dictat. I suspect the lockdown was totally at odds with his political and personal philosophy.
That said, I don't for one minute believe Cummings was overruled by dodgy science, more than likely the diametric opposite.
According to reports if the scientists had listened to Cummings lockdown would have been earlier
Advisors advise, ministers decide.
If Cummings wanted an earlier lockdown, why didn't BoZo do it?
The scientists said no hence Boris, Sturgeon, Drakeford, and Foster all acting in unison
If you want to attack the decison attack all four leaders. Remember Sturgeon has already said they were slow but she always states this is from hindsight
G trying to protect your heroes Bozo and Cummings by always highlighting Sturgeon is not a pretty sight. Look at the ratings.
I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.
I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
It is a sign of our times that people argue about this. Frankly it bores me to tears..
That says a lot about you.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
Bit racist there, what is your problem with older white men
I think the point being made is that Older White Men are disproportionately less likely to suffer domestic abuse. They’re more likely to be running everyone’s lives.
Is it back in fashion to be able to have a go at "gammons"?
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
We are in unknown territory. The 20 per cent drop is not due to market failure like normal recessions but by government diktat. Some economic activity will be lost forever, some merely deferred. You say people might have run down savings but others will have built them up because there has been nothing on which to spend their earnings. It's not only furloughed workers who cancelled their holidays.
I think this is best compared to something like an earthquake or a hurricane, which hammers regular economic activity for a while.
In those cases, economic output bounces back fairly quickly. In the US, states which have re-opened have also seen economic activity come back fairly quickly.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
Well this flies completely in the face of yesterday's market assessment. The falls were based on fears of a second wave.
Until there's a vaccine or cure you just cannot make those assertions (assumptions) Robert.
Sure I can.
Look. I just made them.
And look at yesterday's market moves if you like: at the beginning of yesterday, the S&P500 was up for the year. Despite CV-19 and already stretched valuations, the S&P500 was actually up. That's absurd.
Is GDP down 10.4% or 20%, I mean both are bad but they're not the same
-20.4 in April, -10.4 February, March and April. This is bad.
Certainly doesn’t look good. And with the huge levels of government debt, low interest rates and sluggish manufacturing sector, it’s not easy to see a way back either.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
No.
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
We are in unknown territory. The 20 per cent drop is not due to market failure like normal recessions but by government diktat. Some economic activity will be lost forever, some merely deferred. You say people might have run down savings but others will have built them up because there has been nothing on which to spend their earnings. It's not only furloughed workers who cancelled their holidays.
I think this is best compared to something like an earthquake or a hurricane, which hammers regular economic activity for a while.
In those cases, economic output bounces back fairly quickly. In the US, states which have re-opened have also seen economic activity come back fairly quickly.
Don't under-estimate the impact of the climate and seasons. It's understandable why businesses are getting itchy; they can see summer disappearing and the economic recovery is likely to be suppressed in the autumn and winter.
Comments
I don't think Trump has ever been bothered by things looking like a stunt. Change the game, focus on populism vs the establishment, bring in some freshness and youth against the Dems' geriatric insider and his (assuming Kamala) dull careerist hack of a VP.
https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1271255334984826881
https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1271255335819411461
https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1271255338000490496
Does anyone know why power generation in the UK peaked in 2005 and has been dropping ever since? Fewer factories maybe.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-electricity-generation-2018-falls-to-lowest-since-1994
Working from home may reverse some of these trends, as it is now one lightbulb per worker. Electric cars too.
Sounds pretty implausible, if not ridiculous.
‘Usually‘ is a bit of a stretch.
Trans rights, women's rights, as well as the follow-up on domestic abuse are incredibly important.
You're obviously an older white man. Sometimes it's good to listen and learn.
I'm afraid it had to be pulled.
Take Back Control...https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1271309511911825409
Mr Johnson met Mr Desmond, then owner of the Daily Express, for drinks at the five-star Corinthia hotel in Westminster in September 2015, and had lunch with him later that month. They met again in January 2016.
The planning application was called in by Mr Johnson three weeks later and approved by his deputy, Sir Edward Lister, in April, despite objections from the local council.
Sir Edward, now the prime minister’s chief strategic adviser in Downing Street, approved the first version of the scheme after the developers increased the proportion of affordable housing.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/developer-richard-desmond-met-boris-johnson-for-drinks-726686fhx
https://twitter.com/EdwardTHardy/status/1271200537233457153?s=20
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1271325691980558336
I can see it working.
This could rapidly become a negative spiral of depressed demand.
The monthly decline was outlined in figures reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The fall is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn.”
"April's fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost 10 times larger than the steepest pre-Covid-19 fall," said Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician for economic statistics at the ONS,
"In April, the economy was around 25% smaller than in February.
And when the public enquiry confrms this what will you post then Scott
Big fall. Odd situation, though. A lot of it may bounce back rapidly depending how businesses reopening goes.
One angle not mentioned too much is that schools failing to reopen mean many can't return to work. As well as being bad for kids it's not great for parents/the economy either.
If Cummings wanted an earlier lockdown, why didn't BoZo do it?
According to any reasonable interpretation of Cummings’ past, both are probably true depending on which day of the week it was and what he wanted people to think at the time.
(PS I’d wonder where these rumours are coming from. Dominic Cummings rewrote his blog and then claimed he’d been prescient. Try not to be too gullible as well as servile.)
The reality is that April and May will be terrible, but then we'll see a positive feedback loop. Some people will return to work in June, and parts of the economy will re-open.
Demand increases, and people feel this month is better than last month. They feel more cheerful and maybe spend a little more than they earn. This means another firm suddenly needs to hire an additional worker. Rinse and repeat.
Now, this doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. Lots of people will have run down savings in the last couple of months, and will therefore have elevated savings rates going forward (and even those that didn't will realise they probably have sailed closer to the wind than they should have).
But I would expect the UK economy to grow month on month through to the end of the year. Even if output is still down year-over-year.
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1271335083547361280?s=20
If you want to attack the decison attack all four leaders. Remember Sturgeon has already said they were slow but she always states this is from hindsight
June onwards are figures to pay attention to.
Haven't seen those. Thanks.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model
It's not likely to be a pretty sight on the markets today.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb
And the Official Denial:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/22/no-10-denies-claim-dominic-cummings-argued-to-let-old-people-die
You need a better spin line
Until there's a vaccine or cure you just cannot make those assertions (assumptions) Robert.
2) I’m not a Labour supporter.
I’d say try harder, but you’re already a try-hard.
In a rather different context but Hislop’s comments on censorship still ring true:
https://youtu.be/jG-1YQ1qC8w
Ignore the second half, it’s Mark Steele trying to be funny and isn’t a success.
The bailout plan was a success, on its own terms. The problem was that if the then government had been properly monitoring the banks, while they might have been less profitable in the short term they would probably never have needed bailing out at all. As the Australian banks did not.
Have a good morning.
The government could scrap all measures relating to COVID-19 today and it would make very little difference in my opinion.
Everyone knows Johnson is pathelogically averse to what he would consider restrictive and illiberal government dictat. I suspect the lockdown was totally at odds with his political and personal philosophy.
That said, I don't for one minute believe Cummings was overruled by dodgy science, more than likely the diametric opposite.
HaHaHa
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa
In those cases, economic output bounces back fairly quickly. In the US, states which have re-opened have also seen economic activity come back fairly quickly.
Look. I just made them.
And look at yesterday's market moves if you like: at the beginning of yesterday, the S&P500 was up for the year. Despite CV-19 and already stretched valuations, the S&P500 was actually up. That's absurd.