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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s WH2020 betting: Next President and the Dems VP Nomin

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited June 2020 in General

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    First.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Lance Bottoms?

    Seriously?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Around June 11 2016 Clinton led 5-12 point in the polls and still lost.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited June 2020
    Wasn't Harris supposed to have crashed and burned ages ago? I cannot keep track of these american races
    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    I think the more desperate his situation in the polls, and thus the more desperate to find someone else to blame he gets, the more unpredictable will be his actions.

    Like others I cannot confidently think of Trump's defeat given last time. Damn Clinton.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited June 2020

    kle4 said:

    I wonder if the first episode of Blackadder II will pass muster, where Blackadder falls for what he thinks (despite it being obvious not the case) is his male manservant, given the exended scene of the doctor mocking him for possibly being gay. He wasn't the good guy in the scene, but one cannot be too careful.

    I am gay and I do find that scene somewhat cringeworthy, but I wouldn't want it banned. It was of its time, and most of that show is still great fun (though FWIW if you were being a hardcore SJW killjoy you could write the whole thing off for its comic dismissal of the oppression of the working class by the feckless aristocracy.)

    Generally speaking there's too much of a rush to judgement and the atmosphere around these issues is far too censorious. We need better to distinguish between situations where people make mistakes of which they repent, where there are honest differences of opinion on difficult topics, and where people are wilfully offensive and discriminatory. This whole culture wars bollocks involves people branding each other as members of the latter category whenever they say something that doesn't fit *precisely* into their own worldview. It's crude and destructive and I wish it would stop.

    About the only thing to be said in favour of Chinese-style despotism is at least one of the first acts of the speculative dictator thereof would be to put Twitter behind an impenetrable firewall, never to be seen again.
    A thoughtful view. Not welcome.

    Personally I come at some of these issues acknowledging that due to history and culture we're not in a place where issues of gender, sexuality and race etc are unworthy of comment or that there are no issues to address, I cannot simply dismiss things by believing that they are better now than they used to be, but I have this lingering concern that we presently are becoming so hyper aware of specific charactertistics that it becomes a little self defeating. It feels like we are creating ever more tribes with their own sub-tribes - with people expected to think and feel things for their tribe and sub-tribe - rather than working toward some utopian star trek future of all peoples in harmony. Heck, even star trek doesn't have that anymore.

    I don't know what the solution is, and to get change sometimes there needs to be disruption aggression, but some of the aggression at present feels a little inefficiently directed, and one note with all sins being equally outrageous.

    But at the end of the day the more aggressive will win, as I don't have the will to fight it.

    Pleasant night to all.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    We're still in the middle of a pandemic with unknowable outcomes; a 12-percentage point gap between the two men seems a little overblown does it not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Listed status is prejudiced in favour of old things, ie the past. The past was racist. Listed status is racist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    It has been transferred to a museum so can remain Grade II listed there
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    100,000 slaves gets you a Grade 2. How many for a Grade 1?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    edited June 2020

    Lance Bottoms?

    Seriously?

    You'll get a bone marrow sample one day....

    (It's not like Carry On; they don't need the run up. And it *is* the size of a knitting needle. Or it was last Thursday.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Jonathan said:

    Around June 11 2016 Clinton led 5-12 point in the polls and still lost.

    She wasn't facing an incumbent dealing with 30m unemployed, a pandemic not under control and massive demos and disorder. And obviously totally out of his depth.
    And she was Hilary.
    So yes, he could still win but the situation is very different.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    It has been transferred to a museum so can remain Grade II listed there
    Yes, if listed building consent is obtained first. Otherwise, a criminal offence.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    I thought we debated that at the weekend.

    The West India Quay one is more interesting, because Mayor Sadiq seems to have taken pride in committing a criminal offence carrying a potential 2 years in jail and unlimited fine.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    100,000 slaves gets you a Grade 2. How many for a Grade 1?
    You need to build special warehouses and a dock:

    https://historicengland.org.uk/listing/the-list/list-entry/1242440
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Would it be impossible to implement some kind of law that said that if a product is sold in a country, the workers who made it must be paid that country's minimum wage?

    It would do wonders for the UK garment industry. If, for example, Bangladeshi garment workers had to be paid the British minimum wage for clothes sold in Britain, then the competitive advantages of offshoring the manufacture of clothes would be removed. Might as well make them in the UK again and dispense with the costs of shipping them halfway round the world.

    Of course, it would also make the clothes a lot more expensive and serve to highlight just how hard up, relative to the UK average, a lot of families in this country really are. The news for them would be that formerly cheap clothes from the likes of Primark or the local supermarket would now be priced at mid-market level, so if you want something new to wear you probably can't afford it anymore. Instead, it's an exciting opportunity to rummage through other peoples' castoffs in the charity shops.
    There's an important question here. For most of us, if our clothes cost twice as much and we kept them for twice as long, would we really be worse off?
    We'd be morally better off if we paid the slave labour we keep out of sight the going rate
    It is quite interesting to see, around the world, how invariant the productivity cost of labour is. That is, the actual labour cost against stuff produced.

    With some exceptions - mainly things like the garment industry, where simple skills combine with automation - this is a function of education, cultural, legal stability, societal structures etc.

    An old favourite - in the 1980s, the Economist found that German steel workers cost 19x as much as their Indian counterparts. The German workers were making 22x as much steel, though.

    The whole get-a-PHd-for-50p-a-day thing is exaggerated and is long gone, in any case. Chinese wages have rocketed for example - many have come acropper assuming that outsourcing is cheaper, just because. Much of their advantage now is being current incumbent...

    If you imposed UK minimum wages on imports, then, quite simply you would be closing off imports from the non-first world. You would be launching a trade war with most of the human race.
    The next decade is likely to see middle class service sector jobs outsourced to cheaper countries in the same way that working class manufacturing ones were.

    Attempts to stop it will be made under the guise of 'maintaining standards'.
    I work in high end IT - its been tried a number of times.

    The productivity cost keeps on wacking the managers in the back of the head.

    Yes, I can get developers for x% of London wages. But it doesn't work out cheaper. In fact, one company where I worked, which had development sites around the world, actually worked out the real cost of software development. Cheapest to most expensive -

    1) London / Eastern Europe

    The first 2 were basically a dead heat

    2) US
    3) Canada
    4) India

    India was dead last on every metric. When you go and see how things work there, it is easy to understand.

    The biggest issue in London is getting the really good people.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    Around June 11 2016 Clinton led 5-12 point in the polls and still lost.

    She wasn't facing an incumbent dealing with 30m unemployed, a pandemic not under control and massive demos and disorder. And obviously totally out of his depth.
    And she was Hilary.
    So yes, he could still win but the situation is very different.
    It helps that Americans haven't been trained to hate Biden for 24 years. Versus a guy who had years of a TV show about how great he was, him and Chavez. All the senility memes can't beat that difference among the average American voter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,249
    Because the last thread was swabbed at the wrong moment - 2006.
    Foxy said:

    Do people remember what normal years used to be like? Like 2006 - did anything actually happen in 2006? I honestly can't remember.

    I miss 2006.

    Ah, the good old days under New Labour...
    I think 2006 was notional identity cards and 14 million carers on a National Database.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8ZHXGHEfHM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Gavin and Stacey in some sort of race row. Honestly I'm struggling to keep up.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    MattW said:

    Because the last thread was swabbed at the wrong moment - 2006.

    Foxy said:

    Do people remember what normal years used to be like? Like 2006 - did anything actually happen in 2006? I honestly can't remember.

    I miss 2006.

    Ah, the good old days under New Labour...
    I think 2006 was notional identity cards and 14 million carers on a National Database.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8ZHXGHEfHM
    That was nice, wasn't it?

    This is 2020:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA1SxZoFmOU
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    MattW said:

    Because the last thread was swabbed at the wrong moment - 2006.

    Foxy said:

    Do people remember what normal years used to be like? Like 2006 - did anything actually happen in 2006? I honestly can't remember.

    I miss 2006.

    Ah, the good old days under New Labour...
    I think 2006 was notional identity cards and 14 million carers on a National Database.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8ZHXGHEfHM
    2006 was the year the solar system lost a planet. Coulson may have become a non-person in 2020 but poor Pluto became a non-planet
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin and Stacey in some sort of race row. Honestly I'm struggling to keep up.

    I have never watched more than five minutes of it, but I hear it is because of a character called "Chinese Dave" who liked Chinese food
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin and Stacey in some sort of race row. Honestly I'm struggling to keep up.

    I have never watched more than five minutes of it, but I hear it is because of a character called "Chinese Dave" who liked Chinese food
    BURRRRN IT
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    EPG said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    Around June 11 2016 Clinton led 5-12 point in the polls and still lost.

    She wasn't facing an incumbent dealing with 30m unemployed, a pandemic not under control and massive demos and disorder. And obviously totally out of his depth.
    And she was Hilary.
    So yes, he could still win but the situation is very different.
    It helps that Americans haven't been trained to hate Biden for 24 years. Versus a guy who had years of a TV show about how great he was, him and Chavez. All the senility memes can't beat that difference among the average American voter.
    Sleepy Joe is a terrible nickname too.
    He's used them to encapsulate his opponents in ways which struck home. Lying Ted, Little Marco. But.

    Joe. Ordinary. Dull even.
    Sleepy. Restful. Peaceful. Relaxed.

    Does anyone actively want any more excitement in 2021?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin and Stacey in some sort of race row. Honestly I'm struggling to keep up.

    From what I can see a few Twitter users have moaned and this then makes the national press.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin and Stacey in some sort of race row. Honestly I'm struggling to keep up.

    From what I can see a few Twitter users have moaned and this then makes the national press.
    To be jfair they might be able to save themselves if they take the knee
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry

    Not sure his earlier work will be on again :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Gavin and Stacey in some sort of race row. Honestly I'm struggling to keep up.

    I have never watched more than five minutes of it, but I hear it is because of a character called "Chinese Dave" who liked Chinese food
    BURRRRN IT
    Chinese Alan.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Pulpstar said:

    Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry

    Not sure his earlier work will be on again :p
    His impression of David Bellamy was very bigoted against bearded climate-change deniers with silly voices.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    I keep thinking that chart has Val Doonican as second favourite.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Can I start a campaign to have Doctor Strange removed from Disney?
    Not offended it's just bloody awful.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Has the Sun pulled its front page tonight?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Would it be impossible to implement some kind of law that said that if a product is sold in a country, the workers who made it must be paid that country's minimum wage?

    It would do wonders for the UK garment industry. If, for example, Bangladeshi garment workers had to be paid the British minimum wage for clothes sold in Britain, then the competitive advantages of offshoring the manufacture of clothes would be removed. Might as well make them in the UK again and dispense with the costs of shipping them halfway round the world.

    Of course, it would also make the clothes a lot more expensive and serve to highlight just how hard up, relative to the UK average, a lot of families in this country really are. The news for them would be that formerly cheap clothes from the likes of Primark or the local supermarket would now be priced at mid-market level, so if you want something new to wear you probably can't afford it anymore. Instead, it's an exciting opportunity to rummage through other peoples' castoffs in the charity shops.
    There's an important question here. For most of us, if our clothes cost twice as much and we kept them for twice as long, would we really be worse off?
    We'd be morally better off if we paid the slave labour we keep out of sight the going rate
    It is quite interesting to see, around the world, how invariant the productivity cost of labour is. That is, the actual labour cost against stuff produced.

    With some exceptions - mainly things like the garment industry, where simple skills combine with automation - this is a function of education, cultural, legal stability, societal structures etc.

    An old favourite - in the 1980s, the Economist found that German steel workers cost 19x as much as their Indian counterparts. The German workers were making 22x as much steel, though.

    The whole get-a-PHd-for-50p-a-day thing is exaggerated and is long gone, in any case. Chinese wages have rocketed for example - many have come acropper assuming that outsourcing is cheaper, just because. Much of their advantage now is being current incumbent...

    If you imposed UK minimum wages on imports, then, quite simply you would be closing off imports from the non-first world. You would be launching a trade war with most of the human race.
    The next decade is likely to see middle class service sector jobs outsourced to cheaper countries in the same way that working class manufacturing ones were.

    Attempts to stop it will be made under the guise of 'maintaining standards'.
    I work in high end IT - its been tried a number of times.

    The productivity cost keeps on wacking the managers in the back of the head.

    Yes, I can get developers for x% of London wages. But it doesn't work out cheaper. In fact, one company where I worked, which had development sites around the world, actually worked out the real cost of software development. Cheapest to most expensive -

    1) London / Eastern Europe

    The first 2 were basically a dead heat

    2) US
    3) Canada
    4) India

    India was dead last on every metric. When you go and see how things work there, it is easy to understand.

    The biggest issue in London is getting the really good people.
    I worked with a startup developing an app. They've always used Indian developers, but have to spend much of their management time on planes to make sure the Indians they use understand what's needed of them. They have a disconcerting tendency to say they understand things when they don't.

    Their best people are excellent, though, when they know what they've got to do, and for less than per hour I pay my cleaner.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    MattW said:

    I thought we debated that at the weekend.

    The West India Quay one is more interesting, because Mayor Sadiq seems to have taken pride in committing a criminal offence carrying a potential 2 years in jail and unlimited fine.
    I thought we already discussed this and established that the Docklands statue is not included in the listed building status of the nearby building as it was erected almost fifty years after the building was listed?
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    dixiedean said:

    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
    Interesting. If Trump were to lose on the issue, could he accept he'd lost or would he try to whip up (surely unsuccessfully) a military rebellion over it?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680

    MattW said:

    I thought we debated that at the weekend.

    The West India Quay one is more interesting, because Mayor Sadiq seems to have taken pride in committing a criminal offence carrying a potential 2 years in jail and unlimited fine.
    I thought we already discussed this and established that the Docklands statue is not included in the listed building status of the nearby building as it was erected almost fifty years after the building was listed?
    It all sounded a bit of a grey area from what I could make out. We shouldn't have to wait long for matters to be cleared up though: if Khan can face a legal challenge over it, then someone will make one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    dixiedean said:

    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
    Trump is in tune with Republican voters on this

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1270840792517615629?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1271087290748555264?s=20
  • Fishing said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Would it be impossible to implement some kind of law that said that if a product is sold in a country, the workers who made it must be paid that country's minimum wage?

    It would do wonders for the UK garment industry. If, for example, Bangladeshi garment workers had to be paid the British minimum wage for clothes sold in Britain, then the competitive advantages of offshoring the manufacture of clothes would be removed. Might as well make them in the UK again and dispense with the costs of shipping them halfway round the world.

    Of course, it would also make the clothes a lot more expensive and serve to highlight just how hard up, relative to the UK average, a lot of families in this country really are. The news for them would be that formerly cheap clothes from the likes of Primark or the local supermarket would now be priced at mid-market level, so if you want something new to wear you probably can't afford it anymore. Instead, it's an exciting opportunity to rummage through other peoples' castoffs in the charity shops.
    There's an important question here. For most of us, if our clothes cost twice as much and we kept them for twice as long, would we really be worse off?
    We'd be morally better off if we paid the slave labour we keep out of sight the going rate
    It is quite interesting to see, around the world, how invariant the productivity cost of labour is. That is, the actual labour cost against stuff produced.

    With some exceptions - mainly things like the garment industry, where simple skills combine with automation - this is a function of education, cultural, legal stability, societal structures etc.

    An old favourite - in the 1980s, the Economist found that German steel workers cost 19x as much as their Indian counterparts. The German workers were making 22x as much steel, though.

    The whole get-a-PHd-for-50p-a-day thing is exaggerated and is long gone, in any case. Chinese wages have rocketed for example - many have come acropper assuming that outsourcing is cheaper, just because. Much of their advantage now is being current incumbent...

    If you imposed UK minimum wages on imports, then, quite simply you would be closing off imports from the non-first world. You would be launching a trade war with most of the human race.
    The next decade is likely to see middle class service sector jobs outsourced to cheaper countries in the same way that working class manufacturing ones were.

    Attempts to stop it will be made under the guise of 'maintaining standards'.
    I work in high end IT - its been tried a number of times.

    The productivity cost keeps on wacking the managers in the back of the head.

    Yes, I can get developers for x% of London wages. But it doesn't work out cheaper. In fact, one company where I worked, which had development sites around the world, actually worked out the real cost of software development. Cheapest to most expensive -

    1) London / Eastern Europe

    The first 2 were basically a dead heat

    2) US
    3) Canada
    4) India

    India was dead last on every metric. When you go and see how things work there, it is easy to understand.

    The biggest issue in London is getting the really good people.
    I worked with a startup developing an app. They've always used Indian developers, but have to spend much of their management time on planes to make sure the Indians they use understand what's needed of them. They have a disconcerting tendency to say they understand things when they don't.

    Their best people are excellent, though, when they know what they've got to do, and for less than per hour I pay my cleaner.
    We had a large IT project with work outsourced to India. The Senior Indian PM reported progress on schedule until the deadline, then went on holiday until his team made a partial delivery of sub-standard code. This happened 3 times over 6 months, and any complaints about poor delivery or quality were called out as racism. The Indian coders were Ok but it was the culture not to be up front about problems that caused issues. We could have managed the delay if they'd been honest.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599

    Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry

    Do you mean this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96T2uSjn_mc
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
    Trump is in tune with Republican voters on this

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1270840792517615629?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1271087290748555264?s=20
    Mmm. Southern Pride or racism? Bit of a strange binary choice there.
    I would say both.
    Southern Pride. Pride in racism.
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    No "unity speech" yet, then.

    CNN, 7 June:

    "After a weekend of massive peaceful protests around the country, White House officials are currently deliberating a plan for President Donald Trump to address the nation this week on issues related to race and national unity."

    We did get a tweet praising a crazy archbishop's letter to him about the "offspring of the Serpent", freemasons, and the "deep state", though. C'mon, Donald, tell us about unity...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
    Trump is in tune with Republican voters on this

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1270840792517615629?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1271087290748555264?s=20
    Mmm. Southern Pride or racism? Bit of a strange binary choice there.
    I would say both.
    Southern Pride. Pride in racism.
    For the South states rights is still a big issue, except Virginia every state which fought for the Confederacy in the US civil war voted for Trump
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andy_JS said:

    Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry

    Do you mean this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96T2uSjn_mc
    Oh dear, Rowan Atkinson blacking up. What with that and the homophobic scene in BlackAdder II, he could be popping down the memory hole.

    Is he related to Ron?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    As I found out when I attended Brighton Uni, when you give the far left power, their principles go out of the window, and they become exactly like the people they replaced. They just have different prejudices, bias, and victims of their jokes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Surrey said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
    Interesting. If Trump were to lose on the issue, could he accept he'd lost or would he try to whip up (surely unsuccessfully) a military rebellion over it?
    I favour Fort Sumter, perhaps to replace Bragg.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Surrey said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271145584791965696

    And some think she should be Biden's running mate.

    Trump sounds scared of Republican senators
    The House Minority Leader has declared himself "open" to the idea. It is not inconceivable that some may be toying with the thought. Ones facing re-election with an unpopular President for example.
    Trump is in tune with Republican voters on this

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1270840792517615629?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1271087290748555264?s=20
    Mmm. Southern Pride or racism? Bit of a strange binary choice there.
    I would say both.
    Southern Pride. Pride in racism.
    For the South states rights is still a big issue, except Virginia every state which fought for the Confederacy in the US civil war voted for Trump
    Well indeed.
    In a way I can see the edgy attraction of a white guy from Mississippi or South Carolina flying one as a regional pride thing. Even if it misguided.
    It is the "ultra patriotic" loons from Michigan and Ohio whose logic I really don't follow.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    Fishing said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Would it be impossible to implement some kind of law that said that if a product is sold in a country, the workers who made it must be paid that country's minimum wage?

    It would do wonders for the UK garment industry. If, for example, Bangladeshi garment workers had to be paid the British minimum wage for clothes sold in Britain, then the competitive advantages of offshoring the manufacture of clothes would be removed. Might as well make them in the UK again and dispense with the costs of shipping them halfway round the world.

    Of course, it would also make the clothes a lot more expensive and serve to highlight just how hard up, relative to the UK average, a lot of families in this country really are. The news for them would be that formerly cheap clothes from the likes of Primark or the local supermarket would now be priced at mid-market level, so if you want something new to wear you probably can't afford it anymore. Instead, it's an exciting opportunity to rummage through other peoples' castoffs in the charity shops.
    There's an important question here. For most of us, if our clothes cost twice as much and we kept them for twice as long, would we really be worse off?
    We'd be morally better off if we paid the slave labour we keep out of sight the going rate
    It is quite interesting to see, around the world, how invariant the productivity cost of labour is. That is, the actual labour cost against stuff produced.

    With some exceptions - mainly things like the garment industry, where simple skills combine with automation - this is a function of education, cultural, legal stability, societal structures etc.

    An old favourite - in the 1980s, the Economist found that German steel workers cost 19x as much as their Indian counterparts. The German workers were making 22x as much steel, though.

    The whole get-a-PHd-for-50p-a-day thing is exaggerated and is long gone, in any case. Chinese wages have rocketed for example - many have come acropper assuming that outsourcing is cheaper, just because. Much of their advantage now is being current incumbent...

    If you imposed UK minimum wages on imports, then, quite simply you would be closing off imports from the non-first world. You would be launching a trade war with most of the human race.
    The next decade is likely to see middle class service sector jobs outsourced to cheaper countries in the same way that working class manufacturing ones were.

    Attempts to stop it will be made under the guise of 'maintaining standards'.
    I work in high end IT - its been tried a number of times.

    The productivity cost keeps on wacking the managers in the back of the head.

    Yes, I can get developers for x% of London wages. But it doesn't work out cheaper. In fact, one company where I worked, which had development sites around the world, actually worked out the real cost of software development. Cheapest to most expensive -

    1) London / Eastern Europe

    The first 2 were basically a dead heat

    2) US
    3) Canada
    4) India

    India was dead last on every metric. When you go and see how things work there, it is easy to understand.

    The biggest issue in London is getting the really good people.
    I worked with a startup developing an app. They've always used Indian developers, but have to spend much of their management time on planes to make sure the Indians they use understand what's needed of them. They have a disconcerting tendency to say they understand things when they don't.

    Their best people are excellent, though, when they know what they've got to do, and for less than per hour I pay my cleaner.
    We had a large IT project with work outsourced to India. The Senior Indian PM reported progress on schedule until the deadline, then went on holiday until his team made a partial delivery of sub-standard code. This happened 3 times over 6 months, and any complaints about poor delivery or quality were called out as racism. The Indian coders were Ok but it was the culture not to be up front about problems that caused issues. We could have managed the delay if they'd been honest.
    Former colleague's husband worked for RBS, and his whole team were in India. Complete shitfest. Not terribly impressive from a publicly owned bank.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    MattW said:

    I thought we debated that at the weekend.

    The West India Quay one is more interesting, because Mayor Sadiq seems to have taken pride in committing a criminal offence carrying a potential 2 years in jail and unlimited fine.
    I thought we already discussed this and established that the Docklands statue is not included in the listed building status of the nearby building as it was erected almost fifty years after the building was listed?
    It was erected ages ago. Taken away and put back recently.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Andrew said:
    The only surprising thing about that is the willingness to admit it.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    HYUFD said:
    If he is only four points ahead in Georgia he's in trouble.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    isam said:

    I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.

    I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.

    I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
    So is Fawlty Towers now apparently
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    I don't see why the BBC are obliged to have all of their shows available to watch on Netflix or whatever it is that's cancelled an episode of Fawlty Towers though. It's not illegal to buy the DVD, I don't really get the fuss over it.

    I tried to buy Gone With The Wind today but it was sold out.
    So is Fawlty Towers now apparently
    No prob. I still have my Black and White Minstrel Show compilations to last me through lockdown.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    HYUFD said:
    If he is only four points ahead in Georgia he's in trouble.
    Trump only won Georgia by 5% in 2016
  • Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry

    He did whiteface in True Identity...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354

    HYUFD said:
    If he is only four points ahead in Georgia he's in trouble.
    Trump only won Georgia by 5% in 2016
    Yeah but it suggests the popular vote is going even worse for him this time and he can't expect to nick it again with the marginal States.

    You think the rust belt is going to give him another chance?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Andy_JS said:
    Other versions of the same video with the same message are still available online but they show only white people when Sir David talks of population growth.

    Well that's okay then.

  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    edited June 2020
    The Trump campaign is selling babysuits saying "Baby Lives Matter" on its website:

    image

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2020

    HYUFD said:
    If he is only four points ahead in Georgia he's in trouble.
    Trump only won Georgia by 5% in 2016
    Yeah but it suggests the popular vote is going even worse for him this time and he can't expect to nick it again with the marginal States.
    It really doesn't, this poll is statistically the same as Georgia polling in June 2016.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.

    I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    I have committed the sin of speaking in defence of JK Rowling on Facebook and appear to have lost some friends as a result. What a dispiriting way to have spent a Thursday evening.

    I suppose nobody thinks of themselves as a bigot. Is there a reliable test?

    Ducking stool?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    Jonathan said:

    Around June 11 2016 Clinton led 5-12 point in the polls and still lost.

    Yes, and that's why Biden is only a narrow favorite at this point in time.

    One thing I don't think is fully appreciated is how narrow Trump's margin really was. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation where you apply a random number of +2.5 to -2.5% on each of the individual states (while keeping the overall vote shares at 48-46) - i.e. the kind of random variation that we'd expect between elections even if the top-line doesn't change - then you see Trump dropping (on average) about 30 EVs. He ends up President in most scenarios... but far from all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    rcs1000 said:
    "I don't care how sick you are. I don't care if you just came back from the doctor and he gave you the worst possible prognosis, meaning it's over - you won't be around in two weeks. Doesn't matter. Hang out until November 8th. Get out and vote."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPQLYrCyd3Y
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    rcs1000 said:
    I see we're now back to the deadly virus after our politically approved mass-gatherings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    Just realised that if all this racist comedy is banned we may be left with Lenny Henry

    He did whiteface in True Identity...
    IIRC, that was mildly amusing.

    What about Robert Downey Jr in Tropic Thunder: he played a white man playing a black man...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    twitter.com/GuzKhanOfficial/status/1271039186829807618

    twitter.com/hershpat/status/1271040559248035844

    Isn't the first guy a "comedian" with his own show on BBC? And by comedian, I mean about as funny as Nish Kumar.
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    edited June 2020
    Four-star general Mark Milley has said that his accompanying Trump on the walk to the photo-op outside the church was a "mistake". Unfortunately he doesn't say whose mistake he thinks it was. I haven't found a full transcript but in the clip I've seen it's not true to say he apologises. Whose mistake it was is important because if it was his then that would mean that if in the future his commander-in-chief were to give him a direct order to do it again he would disobey. If it was Trump's mistake it might only be a matter of "Permission to speak, Sir? I think you're making a mistake", followed by carrying out the order as instructed if Trump replied "No I'm not - just do it."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtN4U2xng1M

    Presumably when Milley says he shouldn't have gone for a walk what he really means is there are no good grounds for invoking the Insurrection Act and the military should not be used to crush riots on the scale that they have occurred.

    Trump - still on the ticket on 3 November? Ha!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were in favour of it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were in favour of it.
    Hm... time to tear down the Colosseum?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were in favour of it.
    Rome is going to have to undergo some major renovations in order to fit with the new standards.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were in favour of it.
    Rome is going to have to undergo some major renovations in order to fit with the new standards.
    The Pyramids have got to go, too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were so far ahead of their time that they were an inspiration for the British Empire.

    The route from slave to citizen was a lot longer (and involves more paperwork) in the British iteration, so clearly we still have much to learn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,118
    edited June 2020
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were in favour of it.
    Rome is going to have to undergo some major renovations in order to fit with the new standards.
    The Pyramids have got to go, too.
    Just flatten everything everywhere pre 2000, just to be on the safe side. Well other than the Marxist stuff, that gets a pass.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chart-topping US pop group Lady Antebellum have changed their name to Lady A because Antebellum has connotations with the slavery era. They say they took the name from the architectural style,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53005676

    Antebellum architecture

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antebellum_architecture

    At this rate we won't just be taking down statues and banning movies / tv-shows, we are literally going to have to come up with new names for basically anything old.

    Didn't the Romans invent that word?

    What was their stance on slavery and general human mistreatment?
    They were in favour of it.
    Rome is going to have to undergo some major renovations in order to fit with the new standards.
    The Pyramids have got to go, too.
    Just flatten everything everywhere pre 2000, just to be on the safe side. Well other than the Marxist stuff, that gets a pass.
    On the plus side, no Millennium Dome.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    Tulsi Gabbard, you heard it here first
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited June 2020
    kle4 said:

    Wasn't Harris supposed to have crashed and burned ages ago? I cannot keep track of these american races

    I think the trajectory was:
    * Appeared to take positions among the base like supporting Medicare For All
    * Had a (single) debate win against Biden
    * Spiked in the polls, grew her campaign really big
    * Backed off her base-pleasing positions
    * Followup debates were kind-of meh
    * Polls went back to normal
    * Ran out of money, dropped out

    So she didn't blow herself up with some disqualifying gaffe or anything, she just mismanaged her campaign. That's not really disqualifying for the VP spot, since Biden runs the campaign not her, and she just has to say the lines they give her, which she seems entirely capable of doing. But it's a bit unfortunate for the Democrats (more than for Biden) if the next-in-line to their very elderly president isn't very good.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    Tulsi Gabbard, you heard it here first
    If Trump does want a Democrat running mate, surely Ivanka is closer to home.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    Tulsi Gabbard, you heard it here first
    That's very believable.

    The question is does that help or harm the Trump campaign?

    The issue is with the Religious Right, I think. Especially as there's a fair chance that his VP might end up President.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't Harris supposed to have crashed and burned ages ago? I cannot keep track of these american races

    I think the trajectory was:
    * Appeared to take positions among the base like supporting Medicare For All
    * Had a (single) debate win against Biden
    * Spiked in the polls, grew her campaign really big
    * Backed off her base-pleasing positions
    * Followup debates were kind-of meh
    * Polls went back to normal
    * Ran out of money, dropped out

    So she didn't blow herself up with some disqualifying gaffe or anything, she just mismanaged her campaign. That's not really disqualifying for the VP spot, since Biden runs the campaign not her, and she just has to say the lines they give her, which she seems entirely capable of doing. But it's a bit unfortunate for the Democrats (more than for Biden) if the next-in-line to their very elderly president isn't very good.
    The Trump campaign will presumably be scouring the Democrat primaries for any criticisms of Biden by his VP pick so although I backed Harris earlier, her current price is less tempting. It would not greatly surprise me if the eventual nominee is not on OGH's chart. That said, the running mate's main job in a normal election would be to out-debate Mike Pence, which does not seem too onerous. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy!

    What else we should remember about that put-down is that Dan Quayle was answering a question about his ascending to the presidency should anything happen to George Bush. Joe Biden's running mate will surely face the same question.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMaEC-C4Y20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    "Only a fifth of UK universities say they are 'decolonising' curriculum

    Just 24 out of 128 asked about reforms to address colonial legacy are committed to idea"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/11/only-fifth-of-uk-universities-have-said-they-will-decolonise-curriculum
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    Andy_JS said:

    "Only a fifth of UK universities say they are 'decolonising' curriculum

    Just 24 out of 128 asked about reforms to address colonial legacy are committed to idea"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/11/only-fifth-of-uk-universities-have-said-they-will-decolonise-curriculum

    It seems somehow ironic that the url has a British story under US News.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited June 2020
    BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election:

    At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%).

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VKuY0JCmiI

    I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    Tulsi Gabbard, you heard it here first
    That's very believable.

    The question is does that help or harm the Trump campaign?

    The issue is with the Religious Right, I think. Especially as there's a fair chance that his VP might end up President.
    Well, the context is that he's losing to Biden. I think the religious right would almost certainly back Trump over Biden in that situation. But in any case, even if this isn't a sure thing, if you're heading for near-certain defeat unless you can get some *new* voters from somewhere (in this case the Tankie left) it's worth rolling the dice on whether you'll keep the ones you already have.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    Tulsi Gabbard, you heard it here first
    If Trump does want a Democrat running mate, surely Ivanka is closer to home.
    Ivanka doesn't bring over anyone new (OK, maybe some of Ivanka's followers on instagram), Tulsi brings large parts of the Bernie Sanders base.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Jonathan said:

    Could Trump ditch Pence? The sort of thing he does, but all the more so if he is suffering in the polls.

    Tulsi Gabbard, you heard it here first
    If Trump does want a Democrat running mate, surely Ivanka is closer to home.
    Ivanka doesn't bring over anyone new (OK, maybe some of Ivanka's followers on instagram), Tulsi brings large parts of the Bernie Sanders base.
    Bringing Sanders' supporters to Trump seems unlikely; certainly not "large parts". For a start, Bernie himself might be persuaded to make a pro-Biden speech.

    Ditching Pence would not be too shocking. Pence is no longer needed to attract the Christian right, and Pence is too susceptible to the sort of brain-fade moments that Trump will want to attack Biden for. The trouble with Tulsi is it looks too much like a stunt. There's no upside.
This discussion has been closed.