Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
We are also continuing to record larger number of deaths and infections than the 3 you mention so the gap is still widening. Italy and Spain can at least claim with some justification that they were hit first and somewhat unawares. Given the trajectory of the virus around Europe I'm really not sure that we should have done as badly as we have done.
Wirth all due respect, what were the government supposed to do to mitigate deaths AND keep the economy afloat?
Jacinda Ardern says "Hi!"
Lead a country with a population density barely double that of the Scottish Highlands?
This is a deflection. Most people live in urban areas, same as everywhere else. The fact that there are great swathes where nobody lives is immaterial. What is material is the early decisive action the NZ government took. Taking advantage of their island status to protect the population. We didn't and over 60,000 have lost their lives as a result.
To illustrate this point: New Zealand 86.7% urbanised; UK 83.9% urbanised.
Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
We are also continuing to record larger number of deaths and infections than the 3 you mention so the gap is still widening. Italy and Spain can at least claim with some justification that they were hit first and somewhat unawares. Given the trajectory of the virus around Europe I'm really not sure that we should have done as badly as we have done.
On the flip side our population have been able to exercise outdoors and have a slightly looser lockdown. That will have physical and psychological benefits for years to come vs those who suffered in stricter lockdowns. Do we get any credit for that?
Wirth all due respect, what were the government supposed to do to mitigate deaths AND keep the economy afloat?
Jacinda Ardern says "Hi!"
Lead a country with a population density barely double that of the Scottish Highlands?
This is a deflection. Most people live in urban areas, same as everywhere else. The fact that there are great swathes where nobody lives is immaterial. What is material is the early decisive action the NZ government took. Taking advantage of their island status to protect the population. We didn't and over 60,000 have lost their lives as a result.
I'm sorry but that's just not accurate. Size and density of population have been crucial factors in facilitating the spread of the virus all across the world, and New Zealand's size and density is simply not comparable to our own in any way.
To put it in perspective:
Auckland is by far their largest and densest settlement, with 2418 / sq km.
The 70th (!) densest conurbation in the UK (Crawley) has 3107 / sq km.
Overall UK population density: 259 / sq km
Overall NZ population density: 18 / sq km
You're comparing crab-apples to watermelons.
All those megacities in China must have been screwed then.
Hong Kong must be a plague pit. Has anyone seen their figures?
The Gov't has some horrendous decisions to make around certain parts of the hospitality industry. You'd have thought they'd want to get to those with as much goodwill in the bank as possible, but apparently saving an advisor was deemed more important to use that particular capital on.
Sounds like they've already made their decisions. Any business unable to trade successfully under whatever restrictions are still in force in September will be abandoned to die.
My interpretation is that they feel that they can't keep furlough going indefinitely so they're going to try to tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)
Retail and leisure will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining number of providers equals the remaining number of available customers for the remaining permitted activities.
You may well be right.
But this sentence - “tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)”
Does the government really believe this? What alternative sources of employment, for a start?
It’s delusional if this is their plan.
I grew up in a mining town and turned 16 in 1982. Believe me it would be far from unprecedented.
And many of the areas devastated then will be devastated a second time, having just elected Tory MPs.
Its the urban areas which will be most affected by the structural changes the service sector seems likely to have.
It is perhaps ironic that the structural changes which manufacturing experienced in the 1980s had the most detrimental effects in Labour's then industrial heartland while the structural changes in the service sector in the 2020s will probably have the most detrimental effects in Labour current urban heartlands.
Wirth all due respect, what were the government supposed to do to mitigate deaths AND keep the economy afloat?
Jacinda Ardern says "Hi!"
She has done the easy bit but trashed her economy beyond belief
That's strange, I thought they were about to open up to Australian tourists. That would be the country where the greatest proportion of their visitors come from. And the locals are all out sipping flat whites and chilled lager.
Yes, they've really screwed up.
NZ is not remotely like UK or Europe. The clue is in the word, remote, and it depends on tourism from across the world plus cruise ships which are not coming back anytime soon. Plus international travel insurance will be fearfully expensive with lots of exlcusions deminishing the number of tourists
On the subject of travel insurance, having just re-booked our transatlantic crossing for next year, I was surprised to find the single trip travel insurance was significantly cheaper than the policy I booked for this year's abortive trip.
(Tbf it has an exclusion for cancellation due to covid-19 but if that cancellation is Cunard's inability to sail I should be covered.)
Excluding covid will revert to normal premiums but what about enforced quarantine and medical cover if you developed it in the USA. I would not take the risk to be fair
The Covid exclusion "does not apply to claims under the Emergency Medical and Repatriation Expenses". So we are covered if we contract Covid on the cruise or in the USA.
The Gov't has some horrendous decisions to make around certain parts of the hospitality industry. You'd have thought they'd want to get to those with as much goodwill in the bank as possible, but apparently saving an advisor was deemed more important to use that particular capital on.
Sounds like they've already made their decisions. Any business unable to trade successfully under whatever restrictions are still in force in September will be abandoned to die.
My interpretation is that they feel that they can't keep furlough going indefinitely so they're going to try to tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)
Retail and leisure will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining number of providers equals the remaining number of available customers for the remaining permitted activities.
You may well be right.
But this sentence - “tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)”
Does the government really believe this? What alternative sources of employment, for a start?
It’s delusional if this is their plan.
I grew up in a mining town and turned 16 in 1982. Believe me it would be far from unprecedented.
And many of the areas devastated then will be devastated a second time, having just elected Tory MPs.
Its the urban areas which will be most affected by the structural changes the service sector seems likely to have.
It is perhaps ironic that the structural changes which manufacturing experienced in the 1980s had the most detrimental effects in Labour's then industrial heartland while the structural changes in the service sector in the 2020s will probably have the most detrimental effects in Labour current urban heartlands.
Wirth all due respect, what were the government supposed to do to mitigate deaths AND keep the economy afloat?
Jacinda Ardern says "Hi!"
She has done the easy bit but trashed her economy beyond belief
That's strange, I thought they were about to open up to Australian tourists. That would be the country where the greatest proportion of their visitors come from. And the locals are all out sipping flat whites and chilled lager.
Yes, they've really screwed up.
NZ is not remotely like UK or Europe. The clue is in the word, remote, and it depends on tourism from across the world plus cruise ships which are not coming back anytime soon. Plus international travel insurance will be fearfully expensive with lots of exlcusions deminishing the number of tourists
On the subject of travel insurance, having just re-booked our transatlantic crossing for next year, I was surprised to find the single trip travel insurance was significantly cheaper than the policy I booked for this year's abortive trip.
(Tbf it has an exclusion for cancellation due to covid-19 but if that cancellation is Cunard's inability to sail I should be covered.)
Excluding covid will revert to normal premiums but what about enforced quarantine and medical cover if you developed it in the USA. I would not take the risk to be fair
The Covid exclusion "does not apply to claims under the Emergency Medical and Repatriation Expenses". So we are covered if we contract Covid on the cruise or in the USA.
Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
The problem for the UK now is that the infection and death rates are running a lot higher than its peers - eight times higher than Germany, four times higher than France and Spain, more than twice as high as Italy. It means we will struggle ever to get fully out of lockdown and the infection rates may be too high to run an effective test, track and isolate policy - see my retweet from Beth Rigby upthread.
Wirth all due respect, what were the government supposed to do to mitigate deaths AND keep the economy afloat?
Jacinda Ardern says "Hi!"
Lead a country with a population density barely double that of the Scottish Highlands?
This is a deflection. Most people live in urban areas, same as everywhere else. The fact that there are great swathes where nobody lives is immaterial. What is material is the early decisive action the NZ government took. Taking advantage of their island status to protect the population. We didn't and over 60,000 have lost their lives as a result.
I'm sorry but that's just not accurate. Size and density of population have been crucial factors in facilitating the spread of the virus all across the world, and New Zealand's size and density is simply not comparable to our own in any way.
To put it in perspective:
Auckland is by far their largest and densest settlement, with 2418 / sq km.
The 70th (!) densest conurbation in the UK (Crawley) has 3107 / sq km.
Overall UK population density: 259 / sq km
Overall NZ population density: 18 / sq km
You're comparing crab-apples to watermelons.
All those megacities in China must have been screwed then.
Hong Kong must be a plague pit. Has anyone seen their figures?
Asia doesnt have massive seasonal peaks in flu like the West does. Not sure why we attribute differences on covid mainly to policy or govts when we dont know the real causes. It might be mostly policy, but we assume more than we know.
NZ is not remotely like UK or Europe. The clue is in the word, remote, and it depends on tourism from across the world plus cruise ships which are not coming back anytime soon. Plus international travel insurance will be fearfully expensive with lots of exlcusions deminishing the number of tourists
I'm less pessimistic about the future of cruising but I think it will change.
I suspect small ultra-luxury ships will be fine - Regent, Silversea and the like. It may be the loss of European tourists will be balanced by tourism from South Korea and Taiwan. Perhaps more of their ships will base over there.
The long-distance few stops voyages will be fine - the ship is the journey. The stops are an optional extra and cruises involving cruising through fjords or the Panama Canal or the Alaskan glaciers will still do well but I think it will be fewer stops.
Cruising will be less about stops and the risks of going onshore and more about the luxury and safety of being onboard. Ships will have strongly upgraded medical facilities and perhaps fewer larger cabins so there's more room with fewer passengers. The fares will go up and the lines will rely on people drinking and eating and paying on board.
It may be a smaller, leaner industry will emerge from this with the emphasis even more on the safety of the onboard experience.
More generally, just being a big metropolitan area doesn't seem to be crucial. When it goes wrong, it seems to be typically in individual sites from where it suddenly spurts out of control.
Wirth all due respect, what were the government supposed to do to mitigate deaths AND keep the economy afloat?
Jacinda Ardern says "Hi!"
Lead a country with a population density barely double that of the Scottish Highlands?
This is a deflection. Most people live in urban areas, same as everywhere else. The fact that there are great swathes where nobody lives is immaterial. What is material is the early decisive action the NZ government took. Taking advantage of their island status to protect the population. We didn't and over 60,000 have lost their lives as a result.
I'm sorry but that's just not accurate. Size and density of population have been crucial factors in facilitating the spread of the virus all across the world, and New Zealand's size and density is simply not comparable to our own in any way.
To put it in perspective:
Auckland is by far their largest and densest settlement, with 2418 / sq km.
The 70th (!) densest conurbation in the UK (Crawley) has 3107 / sq km.
Overall UK population density: 259 / sq km
Overall NZ population density: 18 / sq km
You're comparing crab-apples to watermelons.
I don't like country level population density numbers.
Imagine a country called London. It would be extremely dense, and have a really high CV-19 infection rate.
Now put London into - oh I don't know - North Dakota. Suddenly the state of North Dakota has really low population density. Shouldn't deaths now drop?
Obviously not. The reality is that localised density matters much more than country level density. Look at New York State. It is half the population density of the UK... but they also have New York City, and therefore a much higher deathrate as a percentage of people.
If we are looking at worst-case scenarios, there’s a frighteningly significant possibility that antibody-fuelled immunity will wear off. Somewhere between 6 months and 2 years, looking at other coronaviruses.
If, as some have said, contracting the virus means doubling your chance of death that year, then contracting the virus annually would lead to something like halving everyone’s remaining life expectancy. Contracting it every two years shaves it down to two-thirds.
Without social distancing (in the permanent absence of any other solution) and letting the virus rip again and again and again would lead to that.
Living past your early sixties would be rare. Those who are forty today with maybe forty years of life expectancy ordinarily would now expect 20 more years instead - and to be horribly ill for several days every year. Those who are twenty today would expect maybe 30 more years of life - with that annual fate.
If we’re looking at the worst case, we’ve got to bear that possibility in mind. Herd immunity through illness certainly doesn’t necessarily lead to a permanent escape; it is very possible that it would wear off.
There’s a frighteningly significant possibility of many things. Managing to engineer significant, massive, permanent changes to the human behaviour of seven or eight billion people (this is not a problem confined to our little island) to a norm unprecedented in the evolution of our species is not one of them
It is interesting how myxamatosis has changed the habits of rabbits in my lifetime. When I were a lad in t'seventies rabbits lived in sodding great 100+ rabbit warrens. Those same warrens are now as defunct as Maiden Castle because the disease wiped out the sociable and spared the solitary.
So Watership Down is based on a rabbit culture which no longer exists ???
And come to think of it the warren at the end is rather like Maiden Castle.
I returned to my office in central London for the first time in 11 weeks today to replace my broken (coffee incident) laptop for a new one. The only person I met on the journey was an elderly gent at my station who explained he preferred going into Guys over the local Princess Royal and seemed pretty sanguine about it all. It may have helped that we were the only two on the platform at 9:30 am; it was quieter than 6:30 am was three months ago.
Naturally London Bridge station was deserted but what struck me as I walked to the bridge was what has happened to the Big Issue sellers? My usual one has her own flat so isn't homeless and so won't be in a hotel somewhere but at the same doesn't really have any sort of fixed income to point to when claiming. The works on the bridge have started and the single (eastern) pavement is divided again with an exhortation to keep left. The seven of us on the entire length of the bridge complied.
As for my office there were four people in, a member of the IT team who needs to be in to keep it all going and who was shortly to explain to me why coffee and laptops are estranged, two sales traders and the office cleaner. The lights, which are usually motion activated didn't come on when I approached my (old) desk and so I suppose they are permanently off. All of it, save for my chat with the equities traders, was somber. They were their usual ribald selves but the office reminded me of an abandoned space station in a sci-fi movie: all floating motes and half light.
Eventually I left with a new laptop (I expect some hassle over the coffee disaster), back to the desserted streets to return to London Bridge station. I was pleasantly surprised that Pret was still open especially as I hadn't had any breakfast in my hurry to sort out the IT issue. Other than that the bulk of offices were desserted, all the historic pubs were closed and all the medieval churches were without admirers.
I've been a student history of the City of London all my life, in all its varied states over the last two hundred years from guild city beginnings to imperial grandeur to technocratic heights up to the financial crisis and beyond. It is my fear that I am in at the death of my historial muse.
For the record, New Zealand does have some massive advantages over the UK.
(1) The amount of international travel (because it's in the middle of nowhere) is really low. You didn't have hundreds of infected skiiers arriving back from Italy.
(2) Auckland, while urban, is nowhere near as densely populated as London, Milan or NYC. Not only that, but its "light rail" is hardly a tightly packed infection zone.
(3) None of the urban centres are full of high rise apartments and offices with lifts.
Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
Yep. One of the ironies of this saga is now naturally the UK fits into its peer group of large European nations.
If only some bright chap/chapess could think of a way to bring these great nations more together, imagine what they could do, maybe form the largest single market the world has ever seen?
Look at us - government a shambles, prime minister can barely string a sentence together, overwhelmed by death, about to fall out of the largest economic bloc in the world, and then look at Germany - with a competent government led by a smart scientist, successfully dealt with the virus, reopening the economy and at the centre of the European single market. It's embarrassing.
NZ is not remotely like UK or Europe. The clue is in the word, remote, and it depends on tourism from across the world plus cruise ships which are not coming back anytime soon. Plus international travel insurance will be fearfully expensive with lots of exlcusions deminishing the number of tourists
I'm less pessimistic about the future of cruising but I think it will change.
I suspect small ultra-luxury ships will be fine - Regent, Silversea and the like. It may be the loss of European tourists will be balanced by tourism from South Korea and Taiwan. Perhaps more of their ships will base over there.
The long-distance few stops voyages will be fine - the ship is the journey. The stops are an optional extra and cruises involving cruising through fjords or the Panama Canal or the Alaskan glaciers will still do well but I think it will be fewer stops.
Cruising will be less about stops and the risks of going onshore and more about the luxury and safety of being onboard. Ships will have strongly upgraded medical facilities and perhaps fewer larger cabins so there's more room with fewer passengers. The fares will go up and the lines will rely on people drinking and eating and paying on board.
It may be a smaller, leaner industry will emerge from this with the emphasis even more on the safety of the onboard experience.
Maybe but the on board experience played no part in the 15 or so cruises we have been on.
It was the destinations and exploration of the many and varied places.
On board dining, casino, theatre shows, cocktails, art auctions, over priced boutiques and even more overpriced drinks packages, and every other way possible to take money of us was not our scene
To simultaneously praise New Zealand, for being a low populated island several hours flight from anywhere, and China, for having to shut down cities so hard families were welded into their homes, require mental gymnastics I can only marvel at.
Cheers for brightening up my day
The point I making is that effective, early response is what has made the difference. NZ did it. The UK didn't. We have 60,000 dead.
Pity Sage were asleep at the wheel between January and March
It's unfortunate, but this highlights the difference between scientists and politicians.
The science now is clear- we need a couple more weeks of lockdown to get infection rates halved again so that other stuff that works can work reliably. Even if we botched March, that's no reason to botch June as well.
Now, pure scientists would be happy to say that; "we were wrong then, this is more likely to be right now." It's how science progresses.
For various reasons; "gotcha" journalism to be sure, but also a culture of will-to-power, "never apologise never explain", politicians won't do that.
It's why we don't get scientists getting far in UK politics these days, and why that is a pity.
To simultaneously praise New Zealand, for being a low populated island several hours flight from anywhere, and China, for having to shut down cities so hard families were welded into their homes, require mental gymnastics I can only marvel at.
Cheers for brightening up my day
The point I making is that effective, early response is what has made the difference. NZ did it. The UK didn't. We have 60,000 dead.
No more from me tonight. Stay safe all.
NZ locked down 2 days before our official lockdown and 5 days after our unofficial one started.
The Gov't has some horrendous decisions to make around certain parts of the hospitality industry. You'd have thought they'd want to get to those with as much goodwill in the bank as possible, but apparently saving an advisor was deemed more important to use that particular capital on.
Sounds like they've already made their decisions. Any business unable to trade successfully under whatever restrictions are still in force in September will be abandoned to die.
My interpretation is that they feel that they can't keep furlough going indefinitely so they're going to try to tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)
Retail and leisure will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining number of providers equals the remaining number of available customers for the remaining permitted activities.
You may well be right.
But this sentence - “tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)”
Does the government really believe this? What alternative sources of employment, for a start?
It’s delusional if this is their plan.
I grew up in a mining town and turned 16 in 1982. Believe me it would be far from unprecedented.
And many of the areas devastated then will be devastated a second time, having just elected Tory MPs.
Its the urban areas which will be most affected by the structural changes the service sector seems likely to have.
It is perhaps ironic that the structural changes which manufacturing experienced in the 1980s had the most detrimental effects in Labour's then industrial heartland while the structural changes in the service sector in the 2020s will probably have the most detrimental effects in Labour current urban heartlands.
Up to a point, yes. However, the worst affected are most likely to be areas heavily reliant on hospitality and tourism. So city centres yes. But also many smaller market towns, seaside resorts and National Parks. Which will be much less able to cope in the absence of a great deal of alternative employment.
Its likely urban areas will get hit by the loss of big offices and the businesses which depend on them.
Though, as usual, there will be individual gainers.
For example young people who want to live in a city are likely to get more affordable housing.
I accept Mr Cummings’ account of events and his explanations of the reasons behind his decisions. I do not believe that he ultimately broke any official guidance. I will therefore not be calling for his resignation and will continue to support his remaining in post.
Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
Belgium and Spain have higher death rates per head than the UK and the UK also has a lower unemployment rate than most of western Europe and the USA now.
Jenkins is wrong
We comfortably have the highest number of deaths in the UK
We also have the 3rd highest rates of death in Europe and given that we are gaining on Spain we could well soon have a worse rate than them. We have gradually overtaken every other European country.
Genuine question. Do you believe that if we end up with the most deaths per million anywhere in Europe except Belgium then that is a good outcome and something for our government to be proud of?
I think a fair way of looking at is the four countries most similar to the UK are Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Germany has done much better than the rest of us. The differences between France, Spain, Italy and the UK are too small to be able to be confident about which has done better or worse.
We are in the pack, admittedly miles behind Germany, but in line with the majority of our peer group. Not great, but it doesnt help to over play how bad it is either.
Yep. One of the ironies of this saga is now naturally the UK fits into its peer group of large European nations.
If only some bright chap/chapess could think of a way to bring these great nations more together, imagine what they could do, maybe form the largest single market the world has ever seen?
Look at us - government a shambles, prime minister can barely string a sentence together, overwhelmed by death, about to fall out of the largest economic bloc in the world, and then look at Germany - with a competent government led by a smart scientist, successfully dealt with the virus, reopening the economy and at the centre of the European single market. It's embarrassing.
My sentiments are very much in line with yours, but I think you are over playing it. I certainly wish we had a better PM, a better response, a more internationalist and longer term outlook but its not quite as bleak as you make out (and Im sure Germany has its own problems, for all its successes).
I see that Norway, who apparently could totally have managed without lockdown, are only very, very gradually opening up travel restrictions. No free border with Sweden for example.
Pity Sage were asleep at the wheel between January and March
It's unfortunate, but this highlights the difference between scientists and politicians.
The science now is clear- we need a couple more weeks of lockdown to get infection rates halved again so that other stuff that works can work reliably. Even if we botched March, that's no reason to botch June as well.
Now, pure scientists would be happy to say that; "we were wrong then, this is more likely to be right now." It's how science progresses.
For various reasons; "gotcha" journalism to be sure, but also a culture of will-to-power, "never apologise never explain", politicians won't do that.
It's why we don't get scientists getting far in UK politics these days, and why that is a pity.
The amount of time needed depends upon R.
As long as that is below 1 then the number infected will continue to fall.
The issue is whether upcoming changes will see R rise above 1.
But the end of lockdown two weeks ago and the increase in economic activity did not see that happen.
I see that Norway, who apparently could totally have managed without lockdown, are only very, very gradually opening up travel restrictions. No free border with Sweden for example.
Isn't it the case that Norway had a "lock-down" and Sweden didn't? I can confirm, via colleagues who actually live in Sweden that their approach was quie different to the UK's.
I accept Mr Cummings’ account of events and his explanations of the reasons behind his decisions. I do not believe that he ultimately broke any official guidance. I will therefore not be calling for his resignation and will continue to support his remaining in post.
I see that Norway, who apparently could totally have managed without lockdown, are only very, very gradually opening up travel restrictions. No free border with Sweden for example.
Isn't it the case that Norway had a "lock-down" and Sweden didn't? I can confirm, via colleagues who actually live in Sweden that their approach was quie different to the UK's.
Withdrawn - misread that (twice) for Norway managing without a lockdown.
The Gov't has some horrendous decisions to make around certain parts of the hospitality industry. You'd have thought they'd want to get to those with as much goodwill in the bank as possible, but apparently saving an advisor was deemed more important to use that particular capital on.
Sounds like they've already made their decisions. Any business unable to trade successfully under whatever restrictions are still in force in September will be abandoned to die.
My interpretation is that they feel that they can't keep furlough going indefinitely so they're going to try to tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)
Retail and leisure will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining number of providers equals the remaining number of available customers for the remaining permitted activities.
You may well be right.
But this sentence - “tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)”
Does the government really believe this? What alternative sources of employment, for a start?
It’s delusional if this is their plan.
I grew up in a mining town and turned 16 in 1982. Believe me it would be far from unprecedented.
And many of the areas devastated then will be devastated a second time, having just elected Tory MPs.
Its the urban areas which will be most affected by the structural changes the service sector seems likely to have.
It is perhaps ironic that the structural changes which manufacturing experienced in the 1980s had the most detrimental effects in Labour's then industrial heartland while the structural changes in the service sector in the 2020s will probably have the most detrimental effects in Labour current urban heartlands.
Up to a point, yes. However, the worst affected are most likely to be areas heavily reliant on hospitality and tourism. So city centres yes. But also many smaller market towns, seaside resorts and National Parks. Which will be much less able to cope in the absence of a great deal of alternative employment.
My point exactly. What alternatives to tourism are there in large parts of the Lake District? What is this alternative employment of which the government speaks?
I accept Mr Cummings’ account of events and his explanations of the reasons behind his decisions. I do not believe that he ultimately broke any official guidance. I will therefore not be calling for his resignation and will continue to support his remaining in post.
If I was your MP I would say that just to wind you up
Perhaps someone should explain that you don't need R to be continually reducing and that if it remains under 1 the number of infected people will continue to fall.
And given that economic activity has increased in the last three weeks you would expect R to be higher.
I presume nice companies with a little cash will stump up the lowish contributions in Aug-Oct to get some income to their furloughed staff, while not so nice companies will cut them off after July.
Oh FFS! It’s not a question of being nice or not nice. It’s a question of not having the income and not being able to afford it. The rules on trading while insolvent have not been abolished.
Even those restaurants and pubs doing takeaways are losing money, just losing it less slowly than they might otherwise.
Is the 2 metre rule written in law anywhere ?
I believe that it would be enforced, as part of a risk assessment/plan, by HSE, on business premises.
And if it is, it means closure of thousands of businesses. Every pub and restaurant, cafe and club for miles around where I am living would have to close. That stuffs the local suppliers, the farmers, the local tourism sector, all the owners of holiday lets and B&B’s and all the local activities which visitors come up here for.
Does the government have any idea of what this means in practice for large areas of the country?
Do you have any idea what a second wave will mean?
Not just in terms of deaths, but in terms of the economic effect. Not just on a particular sector, but for the whole economy.
Exactly. Avoiding a second wave is the biggest hope the economy has at the moment.
A second wave hits and all those 'we can just about survive the lockdown' companies in ALL sectors go bust. Overnight.
The owners of companies that have used accumulated capital to get through one lockdown might not have the will or ability to stump up again.
Investment confidence (already low) will hit the floor. IMO social distancing is what saves the rest of the economy; it isn't without costs, but avoiding a second wave is worth the costs. There will no doubt be pressure, rightly, to support struggling industries - and I hope that happens. However, it must be remembered that all business involves risk. No one is guaranteed a profit despite working tremendously hard. Sometimes luck plays a tremendous part, and timing too. Its why I am very pleased the govt. didn't help out Ltd company directors dividends - that would be guaranteeing profit, and wouldn't wash.
Lots of companies I know (outside the hospitality sector) are paying their staff 100% now, but only claiming 80%. Thats what I am doing. I'm pretty realistic that profit, which makes up 80% of my income, is going to be severely down this year. However I'm in a much better position than my staff, and they deserve my loyalty, given they've been loyal to me over the years.
To be honest even 80% to the end of August is pretty generous; remember that many very small businesses won't be paying much employer NI because of the exemption, and many employers will have opted out of pensions too. And then only 10% less in September and only one month at 20% less. I'm (yet again) impressed by the treasury.
I know @Cyclefree has a personal link, but @FF43's comment was pretty accurate - mature businesses who are able (i.e. with a bit of a cash pile, or supportive owners willing to make the investment) will try to keep their staff if they see an end in sight. A second wave that necessitates any form of tightened restrictions changes that. It must be avoided at all costs.
I am afraid that you are dreaming if you think most of those companies are going to survive if social distancing remains in place. The reason they have survived until now is because they have been supported and believe that when this ends they will be able to return to relative normality. If that is not the case then a socially distanced 'normality' is actually worse than a second lockdown. Because a socially distanced normality means the end of whatever support they have been receiving but without the ability to survive on 1/3rd or less of the customer base they had last year.
Basically unless the end of support is matched by a complete lifting of restrictions the vast majority of our hospitality and entertainment businesses will go bust very quickly. At that point a second wave becomes, in economic and employment terms, completely immaterial.
I see that Norway, who apparently could totally have managed without lockdown, are only very, very gradually opening up travel restrictions. No free border with Sweden for example.
Isn't it the case that Norway had a "lock-down" and Sweden didn't? I can confirm, via colleagues who actually live in Sweden that their approach was quie different to the UK's.
I think the point the Norwegian Public Health Institute Director was making, was that the Norway had sufficient control over the epidemic and the numbers of infections were low. Therefore lockdown was addressing a problem that was non-existent at the time. Because lockdown itself has negative consequences, it would have been better not to have used it. She accepts that they only know this in hindsight.
Decent problem for Norway to have and it doesn't apply to the UK or Sweden.
I accept Mr Cummings’ account of events and his explanations of the reasons behind his decisions. I do not believe that he ultimately broke any official guidance. I will therefore not be calling for his resignation and will continue to support his remaining in post.
I see that Norway, who apparently could totally have managed without lockdown, are only very, very gradually opening up travel restrictions. No free border with Sweden for example.
Isn't it the case that Norway had a "lock-down" and Sweden didn't? I can confirm, via colleagues who actually live in Sweden that their approach was quie different to the UK's.
Yep and the reason they are not opening their border with Sweden is specifically because of the Swedish policy which they believe makes it too dangerous. They are reopening their borders with Denmark and Finland.
Denmark is also refusing to reopen its border with Sweden.
Pity Sage were asleep at the wheel between January and March
It's unfortunate, but this highlights the difference between scientists and politicians.
The science now is clear- we need a couple more weeks of lockdown to get infection rates halved again so that other stuff that works can work reliably. Even if we botched March, that's no reason to botch June as well.
Now, pure scientists would be happy to say that; "we were wrong then, this is more likely to be right now." It's how science progresses.
For various reasons; "gotcha" journalism to be sure, but also a culture of will-to-power, "never apologise never explain", politicians won't do that.
It's why we don't get scientists getting far in UK politics these days, and why that is a pity.
The amount of time needed depends upon R.
As long as that is below 1 then the number infected will continue to fall.
The issue is whether upcoming changes will see R rise above 1.
But the end of lockdown two weeks ago and the increase in economic activity did not see that happen.
Not quite.
It's true that the difference between R < 1 (decline), R = 1 (constant) and R > 1 (exponential growth) is massive. Also that the medium-term steady state is to manage this thing with R = 1.
But we still shouldn't necessarily rush to R = 1. Firstly, a steady state of about 10 deaths a day is morally nicer than one of 100 deaths a day, let alone 1000 deaths a day. And you basically get to choose that by how much effort you expend on reducing the initial wave.
Also, my understanding is that the population sampling tests imply about 8000 new infections a day at the moment and that's on the limit of what test'n'track can process if it works to spec. If you reduce the number of infections, the tracking has more slack to work, can take more of the load and lockdown measures don't have to contribute so much to keeping R = 1.
There's a tradeoff, to be sure- more hardish lockdown now to allow more release in the nearish future. But that's a conversation I don't see happening.
Just looking at the slides from today's Government briefing:
The working from home number was now 39% of employable numbers (21/5 to 25/5 so covers a weekend and a BH). I recall seeing a figure of 44% not so long ago so that's 1.5 million who were no longer working at home.
Have those 1.5 million gone back to work or has the work they were doing stopped and they have been furloughed? The number currently working from home is about three times what it was this time last year so an extra 8-9 million employed adults are at home.
With 324 deaths and over 2,000 new cases I'm not sure today's data was any cause for celebration though I do accept it continues the slow long-tern decline of the virus.
Is it time to further ease lockdown? As we now know outdoor transmission of the virus is very rare, restrictions on outdoor gatherings seem superfluous so lifting them isn't an issue but there are risks around a full re-opening of retail and particularly businesses which struggle with notions of social distancing so your pubs and clubs (outdoor space excepting perhaps) are going to need to stay closed.
I can't quite see how betting shops will work but I suppose irrespective of whether you think he was forced into it by the Cummings business or not, Johnson, as the purveyor of "good news" (anyone would think he has an image problem), has to keep offering goodies to keep us all happy so shops back on 15/6.
Little has been said on school re-openings on Monday. The information for each school seems very varied - I've seen one Primary which will take the Year 1 and Year 6 pupils on a two-days-per-week basis. Others don't seem ready to open at all yet - will be interesting to see how this get spun by all sides.
I accept Mr Cummings’ account of events and his explanations of the reasons behind his decisions. I do not believe that he ultimately broke any official guidance. I will therefore not be calling for his resignation and will continue to support his remaining in post.
If I was your MP I would say that just to wind you up
It's like the old Japanese soldier joke
June 2021 and a couple are found who had a power cut in May 2020 that left them unaware lockdown had finished
I returned to my office in central London for the first time in 11 weeks today to replace my broken (coffee incident) laptop for a new one. The only person I met on the journey was an elderly gent at my station who explained he preferred going into Guys over the local Princess Royal and seemed pretty sanguine about it all. It may have helped that we were the only two on the platform at 9:30 am; it was quieter than 6:30 am was three months ago.
Naturally London Bridge station was deserted but what struck me as I walked to the bridge was what has happened to the Big Issue sellers? My usual one has her own flat so isn't homeless and so won't be in a hotel somewhere but at the same doesn't really have any sort of fixed income to point to when claiming. The works on the bridge have started and the single (eastern) pavement is divided again with an exhortation to keep left. The seven of us on the entire length of the bridge complied.
As for my office there were four people in, a member of the IT team who needs to be in to keep it all going and who was shortly to explain to me why coffee and laptops are estranged, two sales traders and the office cleaner. The lights, which are usually motion activated didn't come on when I approached my (old) desk and so I suppose they are permanently off. All of it, save for my chat with the equities traders, was somber. They were their usual ribald selves but the office reminded me of an abandoned space station in a sci-fi movie: all floating motes and half light.
Eventually I left with a new laptop (I expect some hassle over the coffee disaster), back to the desserted streets to return to London Bridge station. I was pleasantly surprised that Pret was still open especially as I hadn't had any breakfast in my hurry to sort out the IT issue. Other than that the bulk of offices were desserted, all the historic pubs were closed and all the medieval churches were without admirers.
I've been a student history of the City of London all my life, in all its varied states over the last two hundred years from guild city beginnings to imperial grandeur to technocratic heights up to the financial crisis and beyond. It is my fear that I am in at the death of my historial muse.
The image of desserted offices is a trifle amusing.....
I see that Norway, who apparently could totally have managed without lockdown, are only very, very gradually opening up travel restrictions. No free border with Sweden for example.
Isn't it the case that Norway had a "lock-down" and Sweden didn't? I can confirm, via colleagues who actually live in Sweden that their approach was quie different to the UK's.
Yep and the reason they are not opening their border with Sweden is specifically because of the Swedish policy which they believe makes it too dangerous. They are reopening their borders with Denmark and Finland.
Denmark is also refusing to reopen its border with Sweden.
You can cross the bridge, but you have to have a valid reason to do so, such as a job, returning home, or going to Copenhagen airport.
In Spain, travel between the regions is still banned, so you can't legally travel from Madrid to Barcelona without an official travel document from the State.
I presume nice companies with a little cash will stump up the lowish contributions in Aug-Oct to get some income to their furloughed staff, while not so nice companies will cut them off after July.
Oh FFS! It’s not a question of being nice or not nice. It’s a question of not having the income and not being able to afford it. The rules on trading while insolvent have not been abolished.
Even those restaurants and pubs doing takeaways are losing money, just losing it less slowly than they might otherwise.
Is the 2 metre rule written in law anywhere ?
I believe that it would be enforced, as part of a risk assessment/plan, by HSE, on business premises.
And if it is, it means closure of thousands of businesses. Every pub and restaurant, cafe and club for miles around where I am living would have to close. That stuffs the local suppliers, the farmers, the local tourism sector, all the owners of holiday lets and B&B’s and all the local activities which visitors come up here for.
Does the government have any idea of what this means in practice for large areas of the country?
Do you have any idea what a second wave will mean?
Not just in terms of deaths, but in terms of the economic effect. Not just on a particular sector, but for the whole economy.
Exactly. Avoiding a second wave is the biggest hope the economy has at the moment.
A second wave hits and all those 'we can just about survive the lockdown' companies in ALL sectors go bust. Overnight.
The owners of companies that have used accumulated capital to get through one lockdown might not have the will or ability to stump up again.
Investment confidence (already low) will hit the floor. IMO social distancing is what saves the rest of the economy; it isn't without costs, but avoiding a second wave is worth am very pleased the govt. didn't help out Ltd company directors dividends - that would be guaranteeing profit, and wouldn't wash.
Lots of companies I know (outside the hospitality sector) are paying their staff 100% now, but only claiming 80%. Thats what I am doing. I'm pretty realistic that profit, which makes up 80% of my income, is going to be severely down this year. However I'm in a much better position than my staff, and they deserve my loyalty, given they've been loyal to me over the years.
To be honest even 80% to the end of August is pretty generous; remember that many very small businesses won't be paying much employer NI because of the exemption, and many employers will have opted out of pensions too. And then only 10% less in September and only one month at 20% less. I'm (yet again) impressed by the treasury.
I know @Cyclefree has a personal link, but @FF43's comment was pretty accurate - mature businesses who are able (i.e. with a bit of a cash pile, or supportive owners willing to make the investment) will try to keep their staff if they see an end in sight. A second wave that necessitates any form of tightened restrictions changes that. It must be avoided at all costs.
I am afraid that you are dreaming if you think most of those companies are going to survive if social distancing remains in place. The reason they have survived until now is because they have been supported and believe that when this ends they will be able to return to relative normality. If that is not the case then a socially distanced 'normality' is actually worse than a second lockdown. Because a socially distanced normality means the end of whatever support they have been receiving but without the ability to survive on 1/3rd or less of the customer base they had last year.
Basically unless the end of support is matched by a complete lifting of restrictions the vast majority of our hospitality and entertainment businesses will go bust very quickly. At that point a second wave becomes, in economic and employment terms, completely immaterial.
In addition it requires customers happy to return in the same numbers as before. For indoor venues, that could be the crunch issue, restrictions or none.
I returned to my office in central London for the first time in 11 weeks today to replace my broken (coffee incident) laptop for a new one. The only person I met on the journey was an elderly gent at my station who explained he preferred going into Guys over the local Princess Royal and seemed pretty sanguine about it all. It may have helped that we were the only two on the platform at 9:30 am; it was quieter than 6:30 am was three months ago.
Naturally London Bridge station was deserted but what struck me as I walked to the bridge was what has happened to the Big Issue sellers? My usual one has her own flat so isn't homeless and so won't be in a hotel somewhere but at the same doesn't really have any sort of fixed income to point to when claiming. The works on the bridge have started and the single (eastern) pavement is divided again with an exhortation to keep left. The seven of us on the entire length of the bridge complied.
As for my office there were four people in, a member of the IT team who needs to be in to keep it all going and who was shortly to explain to me why coffee and laptops are estranged, two sales traders and the office cleaner. The lights, which are usually motion activated didn't come on when I approached my (old) desk and so I suppose they are permanently off. All of it, save for my chat with the equities traders, was somber. They were their usual ribald selves but the office reminded me of an abandoned space station in a sci-fi movie: all floating motes and half light.
Eventually I left with a new laptop (I expect some hassle over the coffee disaster), back to the desserted streets to return to London Bridge station. I was pleasantly surprised that Pret was still open especially as I hadn't had any breakfast in my hurry to sort out the IT issue. Other than that the bulk of offices were desserted, all the historic pubs were closed and all the medieval churches were without admirers.
I've been a student history of the City of London all my life, in all its varied states over the last two hundred years from guild city beginnings to imperial grandeur to technocratic heights up to the financial crisis and beyond. It is my fear that I am in at the death of my historial muse.
The image of desserted offices is a trifle amusing.....
I didn't get where I am today by trifling about desserted offices
If anyone wants to know what 2m social distancing in a cinema looks like, here's one that's just re-opened in my neck of the woods. 112 seats, reduced to 32.
They're struggling to fill any seats at all for most performances, a combination of no new releases and people preferring to stay home for a while longer.
I returned to my office in central London for the first time in 11 weeks today to replace my broken (coffee incident) laptop for a new one. The only person I met on the journey was an elderly gent at my station who explained he preferred going into Guys over the local Princess Royal and seemed pretty sanguine about it all. It may have helped that we were the only two on the platform at 9:30 am; it was quieter than 6:30 am was three months ago.
Naturally London Bridge station was deserted but what struck me as I walked to the bridge was what has happened to the Big Issue sellers? My usual one has her own flat so isn't homeless and so won't be in a hotel somewhere but at the same doesn't really have any sort of fixed income to point to when claiming. The works on the bridge have started and the single (eastern) pavement is divided again with an exhortation to keep left. The seven of us on the entire length of the bridge complied.
As for my office there were four people in, a member of the IT team who needs to be in to keep it all going and who was shortly to explain to me why coffee and laptops are estranged, two sales traders and the office cleaner. The lights, which are usually motion activated didn't come on when I approached my (old) desk and so I suppose they are permanently off. All of it, save for my chat with the equities traders, was somber. They were their usual ribald selves but the office reminded me of an abandoned space station in a sci-fi movie: all floating motes and half light.
Eventually I left with a new laptop (I expect some hassle over the coffee disaster), back to the desserted streets to return to London Bridge station. I was pleasantly surprised that Pret was still open especially as I hadn't had any breakfast in my hurry to sort out the IT issue. Other than that the bulk of offices were desserted, all the historic pubs were closed and all the medieval churches were without admirers.
I've been a student history of the City of London all my life, in all its varied states over the last two hundred years from guild city beginnings to imperial grandeur to technocratic heights up to the financial crisis and beyond. It is my fear that I am in at the death of my historial muse.
The image of desserted offices is a trifle amusing.....
I read the post but one from the bottom up, and when I read 'in at the death of my historial muse', I thought - that's got to be one of Sean's.
Which now makes me wonder if he's been stung by the criticism of all his totally unconvincing aliases and decided to go full remainiac to prove us all wrong.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
The Gov't has some horrendous decisions to make around certain parts of the hospitality industry. You'd have thought they'd want to get to those with as much goodwill in the bank as possible, but apparently saving an advisor was deemed more important to use that particular capital on.
Sounds like they've already made their decisions. Any business unable to trade successfully under whatever restrictions are still in force in September will be abandoned to die.
My interpretation is that they feel that they can't keep furlough going indefinitely so they're going to try to tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)
Retail and leisure will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining number of providers equals the remaining number of available customers for the remaining permitted activities.
You may well be right.
But this sentence - “tough out mass unemployment, let the unlucky workers rot on Universal Credit for a couple of years, and hope that the bombed out sectors are resurrected or replaced by alternative sources of employment after the virus is dealt with (but before the next election.)”
Does the government really believe this? What alternative sources of employment, for a start?
It’s delusional if this is their plan.
I grew up in a mining town and turned 16 in 1982. Believe me it would be far from unprecedented.
And many of the areas devastated then will be devastated a second time, having just elected Tory MPs.
Its the urban areas which will be most affected by the structural changes the service sector seems likely to have.
It is perhaps ironic that the structural changes which manufacturing experienced in the 1980s had the most detrimental effects in Labour's then industrial heartland while the structural changes in the service sector in the 2020s will probably have the most detrimental effects in Labour current urban heartlands.
Up to a point, yes. However, the worst affected are most likely to be areas heavily reliant on hospitality and tourism. So city centres yes. But also many smaller market towns, seaside resorts and National Parks. Which will be much less able to cope in the absence of a great deal of alternative employment.
My point exactly. What alternatives to tourism are there in large parts of the Lake District? What is this alternative employment of which the government speaks?
If the lesson of the 80's is followed. Most of the bright, young people up sticks. Never to return. Leaving an increasingly older, less educated and enterprising and poorer demographic in their stead. Up to this government to think of an alternative.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
Sturgeon was always going to do different things just for the point of doing different things.
By this time next year this will be the most unpopular government in modern polling.
Hmm it's popular amongst a whole bunch of people "Don't care how many were killed or how bad the economy is doing, Boris and Dom delivered BREXIT". That's a portion of the Brexiteers, a small one I hope.
As the GE will not be before 2024 nobody has a clue of the outcome of that election
But it has gone back to two party politics
And the uncertainty about 2024 is, in itself, significant.
If the election takes place on May 2nd 2024 as required by FTPA, we are now closer to Polling Day than to Cameron's resignation statement the day following the EU Referendum.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
I don't mind differences, I mind announcements that are utter crap.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
By this time next year this will be the most unpopular government in modern polling.
Hmm it's popular amongst a whole bunch of people "Don't care how many were killed or how bad the economy is doing, Boris and Dom delivered BREXIT". That's a portion of the Brexiteers, a small one I hope.
So far nothing's been delivered except a continuation of the status quo, and there's no indication they'll be able to deliver anything else without it descending into chaos.
I presume nice companies with a little cash will stump up the lowish contributions in Aug-Oct to get some income to their furloughed staff, while not so nice companies will cut them off after July.
Oh FFS! It’s not a question of being nice or not nice. It’s a question of not having the income and not being able to afford it. The rules on trading while insolvent have not been abolished.
Even those restaurants and pubs doing takeaways are losing money, just losing it less slowly than they might otherwise.
Is the 2 metre rule written in law anywhere ?
I believe that it would be enforced, as part of a risk assessment/plan, by HSE, on business premises.
And if it is, it means closure of thousands of businesses. Every pub and restaurant, cafe and club for miles around where I am living would have to close. That stuffs the local suppliers, the farmers, the local tourism sector, all the owners of holiday lets and B&B’s and all the local activities which visitors come up here for.
Does the government have any idea of what this means in practice for large areas of the country?
Do you have any idea what a second wave will mean?
Not just in terms of deaths, but in terms of the economic effect. Not just on a particular sector, but for the whole economy.
Exactly. Avoiding a second wave is the biggest hope the economy has at the moment.
A second wave hits and all those 'we can just about survive the lockdown' companies in ALL sectors go bust. Overnight.
The owners of companies that have used accumulated capital to get through one lockdown might not have the will or ability to stump up again.
Investment confidence (already low) will hit the floor. IMO social distancing is what saves the rest of the economy; it isn't without costs, but avoiding a second wave is worth am very pleased the govt. didn't help out Ltd company directors dividends - that would be guaranteeing profit, and wouldn't wash.
Lots of companies I know (outside the hospitality sector) are paying their staff 100% now, but only claiming 80%. Thats what I am doing. I'm pretty realistic that profit, which makes up 80% of my income, is going to be severely down this year. However I'm in a much better position than my staff, and they deserve my loyalty, given they've been loyal to me over the years.
To be honest even 80% to the end of August is pretty generous; remember that many very small businesses won't be paying much employer NI because of the exemption, and many employers will have opted out of pensions too. And then only 10% less in September and only one month at 20% less. I'm (yet again) impressed by the treasury.
I know @Cyclefree has a personal link, but @FF43's comment was pretty accurate - mature businesses who are able (i.e. with a bit of a cash pile, or supportive owners willing to make the investment) will try to keep their staff if they see an end in sight. A second wave that necessitates any form of tightened restrictions changes that. It must be avoided at all costs.
I am afraid that you are dreaming if you think most of those companies are going to survive if social distancing remains in place. The reason they have survived until now is because they have been supported and believe that when this ends they will be able to return to relative normality. If that is not the case then a socially distanced 'normality' is actually worse than a second lockdown. Because a socially distanced normality means the end of whatever support they have been receiving but without the ability to survive on 1/3rd or less of the customer base they had last year.
Basically unless the end of support is matched by a complete lifting of restrictions the vast majority of our hospitality and entertainment businesses will go bust very quickly. At that point a second wave becomes, in economic and employment terms, completely immaterial.
In addition it requires customers happy to return in the same numbers as before. For indoor venues, that could be the crunch issue, restrictions or none.
I think that is the salient point. Those who have made high volume, high density, low margin their business model will need rapid change. Open or not, confidence in safety will be vital. Punters may have to pay much more too. Therefore quality will win out.
This is a government completely at sea, other than the Treasury.
Johnson is totally out of his depth and surrounded by lightweights and idiots.
The change comes in on monday as in Wales and Wales will do the same
I agree Boris is a disaster but this is no different than elsewhere
Do you agree that this is laugh out loud stupid. No one is going to wait until Monday to have a gathering in their garden.
Someone needs to get a grip.
Most of Wales said the same about Drakesford today
My son, his partner and our two grandchildren can visit us in our garden on monday
My daughter, son in law and two grandchildren who live 12 miles away will be stopped even though they can travel the 15 miles to B & Q and pass the end of our road as we are more than 5 miles from them.
You think Boris is bad, you should have Drakesford who is a disaster
By this time next year this will be the most unpopular government in modern polling.
Hmm it's popular amongst a whole bunch of people "Don't care how many were killed or how bad the economy is doing, Boris and Dom delivered BREXIT". That's a portion of the Brexiteers, a small one I hope.
Popularity isn't needed as long as you're viewed as less bad or not as intrinsically hostile as the other options.
Which is why I've kept saying that Starmer has been missing open goals.
He should have been pointing out the costs of not restricting entry to the UK and he should have been saying "after ten years of Conservative government the UK has become dependent upon imported PPE".
Both things would have played well among the voters Labour has lost.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
I don't mind differences, I mind announcements that are utter crap.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
The comms on all this have been shit.
The whole thing since easing began has been a farce. Utter farce.
Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed by the majority of people who choose to visit friends/family this weeke --- I mean, from Monday.
Oh, and if it rains, you can't shelter in the house, you have to go home.
Lol!
One walk along Whitstable beach tonight - groups of people from multiple households all meeting up and sharing a few tinnies, no social distancing. Queue for the chippie was around the corner, no social distancing in that either.
The virus ended three weeks ago for most people, just not the media, social media and us all on here.
As the GE will not be before 2024 nobody has a clue of the outcome of that election
But it has gone back to two party politics
And the uncertainty about 2024 is, in itself, significant.
I think covid has made it like that. Not a good time to be in government
To an extent, that bucket of nastiness is still to hit. There's been lots of sickness and too much death, but most of us haven't been touched by it. The economic outlook is grim, but it's still mostly outlook for most people. Lockdown is boring, but compared with the sacrifices previous generations have made, it's trivial.
Two things have happened so far. Sir Keir is visibly less rubbish than Mr Jeremy, which makes a massive change compared with December 2019. I don't know how big the "BoJo is awful but Jezza is worse" vote was, but I suspect it was non-trivial. Also, the crisis has highlighted stuff that was known before about Boris, but not really known. He's pretty lazy, a poor speaker, and morally pretty dodgy. I mean, we all half-knew this before, but this crisis has brought it into sharper relief. And unlike the crises of last year, he has nobody else to blame now.
Tory and BRX is almost the same as at the general election. Seems to be a swing from LD to Lab, which is surprising since the LDs were already pretty low.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
I don't mind differences, I mind announcements that are utter crap.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
The comms on all this have been shit.
The whole thing since easing began has been a farce. Utter farce.
Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed by the majority of people who choose to visit friends/family this weeke --- I mean, from Monday.
Oh, and if it rains, you can't shelter in the house, you have to go home.
Lol!
One walk along Whitstable beach tonight - groups of people from multiple households all meeting up and sharing a few tinnies, no social distancing. Queue for the chippie was around the corner, no social distancing in that either.
The virus ended three weeks ago for most people, just not the media, social media and us all on here.
Let's hope we have hidden immunity etc etc, or else we are looking at a public health disaster.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
I don't mind differences, I mind announcements that are utter crap.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
The comms on all this have been shit.
The whole thing since easing began has been a farce. Utter farce.
Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed by the majority of people who choose to visit friends/family this weeke --- I mean, from Monday.
Oh, and if it rains, you can't shelter in the house, you have to go home.
Lol!
One walk along Whitstable beach tonight - groups of people from multiple households all meeting up and sharing a few tinnies, no social distancing. Queue for the chippie was around the corner, no social distancing in that either.
The virus ended three weeks ago for most people, just not the media, social media and us all on here.
Has someone told the virus this? Maybe we need some publicity campaign. Maybe tiny "Go Home" vans to inject into people.
By this time next year this will be the most unpopular government in modern polling.
That could very well be true but it will not be because of Cummings
It will be the fallout from the economic armageddon
Indeed. That's what I meant, although Cummings events have started the undermining of respect for the government.
No Deal will throw petrol on the fire of post-covid economic mess.
Not sure it matters anymore, so much has changed and for the EU
I expect Rishi to announce hundreds of billions investment on green schemes and constructio n this summer to create new UK industries to provide new employment for millions.
Corbyn will look like a conservative chancellor compared to what is coming
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
I don't mind differences, I mind announcements that are utter crap.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
The comms on all this have been shit.
The whole thing since easing began has been a farce. Utter farce.
Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed by the majority of people who choose to visit friends/family this weeke --- I mean, from Monday.
Oh, and if it rains, you can't shelter in the house, you have to go home.
Lol!
One walk along Whitstable beach tonight - groups of people from multiple households all meeting up and sharing a few tinnies, no social distancing. Queue for the chippie was around the corner, no social distancing in that either.
The virus ended three weeks ago for most people, just not the media, social media and us all on here.
Has someone told the virus this? Maybe we need some publicity campaign. Maybe tiny "Go Home" vans to inject into people.
Brace yourself for a second spike come July, I should imagine.
@rottenborough Over this weekend people in Scotland can meet in a garden I think but not England, whereas you can play golf in England but not Scotland ?
I don't mind differences, I mind announcements that are utter crap.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
The comms on all this have been shit.
The whole thing since easing began has been a farce. Utter farce.
Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed by the majority of people who choose to visit friends/family this weeke --- I mean, from Monday.
Oh, and if it rains, you can't shelter in the house, you have to go home.
Lol!
One walk along Whitstable beach tonight - groups of people from multiple households all meeting up and sharing a few tinnies, no social distancing. Queue for the chippie was around the corner, no social distancing in that either.
The virus ended three weeks ago for most people, just not the media, social media and us all on here.
Let's hope we have hidden immunity etc etc, or else we are looking at a public health disaster.
Or perhaps not.
Isn't this exactly what was being said three weeks ago ?
By this time next year this will be the most unpopular government in modern polling.
That could very well be true but it will not be because of Cummings
It will be the fallout from the economic armageddon
Indeed. That's what I meant, although Cummings events have started the undermining of respect for the government.
No Deal will throw petrol on the fire of post-covid economic mess.
Not sure it matters anymore, so much has changed and for the EU
I expect Rishi to announce hundreds of billions investment on green schemes and constructio n this summer to create new UK industries to provide new employment for millions.
Corbyn will look like a conservative chancellor compared to what is coming
Comments
I suspect small ultra-luxury ships will be fine - Regent, Silversea and the like. It may be the loss of European tourists will be balanced by tourism from South Korea and Taiwan. Perhaps more of their ships will base over there.
The long-distance few stops voyages will be fine - the ship is the journey. The stops are an optional extra and cruises involving cruising through fjords or the Panama Canal or the Alaskan glaciers will still do well but I think it will be fewer stops.
Cruising will be less about stops and the risks of going onshore and more about the luxury and safety of being onboard. Ships will have strongly upgraded medical facilities and perhaps fewer larger cabins so there's more room with fewer passengers. The fares will go up and the lines will rely on people drinking and eating and paying on board.
It may be a smaller, leaner industry will emerge from this with the emphasis even more on the safety of the onboard experience.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Hong_Kong
More generally, just being a big metropolitan area doesn't seem to be crucial. When it goes wrong, it seems to be typically in individual sites from where it suddenly spurts out of control.
Imagine a country called London. It would be extremely dense, and have a really high CV-19 infection rate.
Now put London into - oh I don't know - North Dakota. Suddenly the state of North Dakota has really low population density. Shouldn't deaths now drop?
Obviously not. The reality is that localised density matters much more than country level density. Look at New York State. It is half the population density of the UK... but they also have New York City, and therefore a much higher deathrate as a percentage of people.
And come to think of it the warren at the end is rather like Maiden Castle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PdwxamslN0
(1) The amount of international travel (because it's in the middle of nowhere) is really low. You didn't have hundreds of infected skiiers arriving back from Italy.
(2) Auckland, while urban, is nowhere near as densely populated as London, Milan or NYC. Not only that, but its "light rail" is hardly a tightly packed infection zone.
(3) None of the urban centres are full of high rise apartments and offices with lifts.
It was the destinations and exploration of the many and varied places.
On board dining, casino, theatre shows, cocktails, art auctions, over priced boutiques and even more overpriced drinks packages, and every other way possible to take money of us was not our scene
No more from me tonight. Stay safe all.
The science now is clear- we need a couple more weeks of lockdown to get infection rates halved again so that other stuff that works can work reliably. Even if we botched March, that's no reason to botch June as well.
Now, pure scientists would be happy to say that; "we were wrong then, this is more likely to be right now." It's how science progresses.
For various reasons; "gotcha" journalism to be sure, but also a culture of will-to-power, "never apologise never explain", politicians won't do that.
It's why we don't get scientists getting far in UK politics these days, and why that is a pity.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52843846?fbclid=IwAR3JjKDDe4eLvpEtqBwyV0kqNCR-VHtJSUAiP2pu9HY_jMPnoRhXZUkeyQo
Though, as usual, there will be individual gainers.
For example young people who want to live in a city are likely to get more affordable housing.
I got a reply from my local MP
I accept Mr Cummings’ account of events and his explanations of the reasons behind his decisions. I do not believe that he ultimately broke any official guidance. I will therefore not be calling for his resignation and will continue to support his remaining in post.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52853556
Was it really a dead cat to "move on" from Cummings?
As long as that is below 1 then the number infected will continue to fall.
The issue is whether upcoming changes will see R rise above 1.
But the end of lockdown two weeks ago and the increase in economic activity did not see that happen.
It was Sage advice that the four parts of the Country acted on and they mistook covid for flu, thereby not suggesting early lockdown
Perhaps someone should explain that you don't need R to be continually reducing and that if it remains under 1 the number of infected people will continue to fall.
And given that economic activity has increased in the last three weeks you would expect R to be higher.
Basically unless the end of support is matched by a complete lifting of restrictions the vast majority of our hospitality and entertainment businesses will go bust very quickly. At that point a second wave becomes, in economic and employment terms, completely immaterial.
Decent problem for Norway to have and it doesn't apply to the UK or Sweden.
Denmark is also refusing to reopen its border with Sweden.
Michelle Obama, on the other hand.....
It's true that the difference between R < 1 (decline), R = 1 (constant) and R > 1 (exponential growth) is massive. Also that the medium-term steady state is to manage this thing with R = 1.
But we still shouldn't necessarily rush to R = 1. Firstly, a steady state of about 10 deaths a day is morally nicer than one of 100 deaths a day, let alone 1000 deaths a day. And you basically get to choose that by how much effort you expend on reducing the initial wave.
Also, my understanding is that the population sampling tests imply about 8000 new infections a day at the moment and that's on the limit of what test'n'track can process if it works to spec. If you reduce the number of infections, the tracking has more slack to work, can take more of the load and lockdown measures don't have to contribute so much to keeping R = 1.
There's a tradeoff, to be sure- more hardish lockdown now to allow more release in the nearish future. But that's a conversation I don't see happening.
The working from home number was now 39% of employable numbers (21/5 to 25/5 so covers a weekend and a BH). I recall seeing a figure of 44% not so long ago so that's 1.5 million who were no longer working at home.
Have those 1.5 million gone back to work or has the work they were doing stopped and they have been furloughed? The number currently working from home is about three times what it was this time last year so an extra 8-9 million employed adults are at home.
With 324 deaths and over 2,000 new cases I'm not sure today's data was any cause for celebration though I do accept it continues the slow long-tern decline of the virus.
Is it time to further ease lockdown? As we now know outdoor transmission of the virus is very rare, restrictions on outdoor gatherings seem superfluous so lifting them isn't an issue but there are risks around a full re-opening of retail and particularly businesses which struggle with notions of social distancing so your pubs and clubs (outdoor space excepting perhaps) are going to need to stay closed.
I can't quite see how betting shops will work but I suppose irrespective of whether you think he was forced into it by the Cummings business or not, Johnson, as the purveyor of "good news" (anyone would think he has an image problem), has to keep offering goodies to keep us all happy so shops back on 15/6.
Little has been said on school re-openings on Monday. The information for each school seems very varied - I've seen one Primary which will take the Year 1 and Year 6 pupils on a two-days-per-week basis. Others don't seem ready to open at all yet - will be interesting to see how this get spun by all sides.
40 seats lost, keep going Keir - a minority Government awaits!!!!
What poll are you on about?
June 2021 and a couple are found who had a power cut in May 2020 that left them unaware lockdown had finished
"So we are allowed to leave the house?"
"Yes you've been allowed out for a year now"
"Are the pubs still closed?"
"No, they reopened last June"
"Crowds still banned at football?"
"No, the 20/21 season has had fans at games"
"Scott P still going on about Cummings?"
LOL
In Spain, travel between the regions is still banned, so you can't legally travel from Madrid to Barcelona without an official travel document from the State.
I think not.
You are no Churchill, Johnson.
Which now makes me wonder if he's been stung by the criticism of all his totally unconvincing aliases and decided to go full remainiac to prove us all wrong.
But it has gone back to two party politics
It's just totally surreal now.
This is a government completely at sea, other than the Treasury.
Johnson is totally out of his depth and surrounded by lightweights and idiots.
By this time next year this will be the most unpopular government in modern polling.
I agree Boris is a disaster but this is no different than elsewhere
Up to this government to think of an alternative.
It will be the fallout from the economic armageddon
Someone needs to get a grip.
If you think that gatherings of six are ok in a garden on a sunny afternoon with a few drinks, then announce that that is ok from this weekend (when forecast is 26 degrees). Don't make a tit of yourself by saying wait until Monday.
Or maybe R is going to plunge so much in next 48 hours that it will be safe to have six people around?
The comms on all this have been shit.
Jonathan Sumption
The former Supreme Court justice on being a libertarian and why lockdown is 'despotic'"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08fjy9j
Open or not, confidence in safety will be vital.
Punters may have to pay much more too. Therefore quality will win out.
Thus the regulations which are only guidance and therefore are advice do not apply.
My son, his partner and our two grandchildren can visit us in our garden on monday
My daughter, son in law and two grandchildren who live 12 miles away will be stopped even though they can travel the 15 miles to B & Q and pass the end of our road as we are more than 5 miles from them.
You think Boris is bad, you should have Drakesford who is a disaster
Which is why I've kept saying that Starmer has been missing open goals.
He should have been pointing out the costs of not restricting entry to the UK and he should have been saying "after ten years of Conservative government the UK has become dependent upon imported PPE".
Both things would have played well among the voters Labour has lost.
Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed by the majority of people who choose to visit friends/family this weeke --- I mean, from Monday.
Oh, and if it rains, you can't shelter in the house, you have to go home.
Lol!
One walk along Whitstable beach tonight - groups of people from multiple households all meeting up and sharing a few tinnies, no social distancing. Queue for the chippie was around the corner, no social distancing in that either.
The virus ended three weeks ago for most people, just not the media, social media and us all on here.
No Deal will throw petrol on the fire of post-covid economic mess.
Two things have happened so far. Sir Keir is visibly less rubbish than Mr Jeremy, which makes a massive change compared with December 2019. I don't know how big the "BoJo is awful but Jezza is worse" vote was, but I suspect it was non-trivial.
Also, the crisis has highlighted stuff that was known before about Boris, but not really known. He's pretty lazy, a poor speaker, and morally pretty dodgy. I mean, we all half-knew this before, but this crisis has brought it into sharper relief. And unlike the crises of last year, he has nobody else to blame now.
Rehearsals for the public inquiry are up and running.
I expect Rishi to announce hundreds of billions investment on green schemes and constructio n this summer to create new UK industries to provide new employment for millions.
Corbyn will look like a conservative chancellor compared to what is coming
Isn't this exactly what was being said three weeks ago ?
Quite a significant move over last few days.
The Beijing-based biotech company is currently building a commercial plant with the objective of delivering 100 million doses."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-99-chance-that-covid-19-vaccine-will-work-says-chinese-firm-11996787