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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Behind all the terrible COVID-19 statistics a story of two wom

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    So are all our PB don't question the government let me know when it's ok to get out from under the table crew happy that BoJo is still not able to function properly as PM?
  • Foxy said:

    I am not complaining of his illness, but even before that he was prone to absenteeism, from the prorogation of Parliament onwards. Can you really not see the pattern?
    To be fair there is a pattern but not in anyway should his covid experience be drawn into it though prorogation was political not absenteeism
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,267
    Foxy said:

    Yes, who hasn't had a long haul flight virus?

    This one based upon spread in a restaurant too:

    https://twitter.com/uh_csc/status/1255280359861899266?s=09

    Until we have a reliable antibody test and vaccine, then the garden it is.
    As I said at the very beginning, the air con needs to be switched off, if we want containment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    Dura_Ace said:

    "Raring to go" lasted two days... The useless fat sack of shit.
    +1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    On Monday we were told he was raring to go, fighting fit, on top form. Now he may not be well enough to answer questions for 30 minutes.
    One hour - which in fairness would be testing for a fully fit person.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Yes. Surely he has acquired permanent immunity to any form of criticism.
    Not at all, but the refrain of Britain Trump is a sure sign of titanic laziness and self comfort. Particularly on this issue tying it to Boris avoiding PMQs. Trump loves getting question so he can go on the attack, he seems to have only reluctantly stopped that.

    There are similarities but they're overblown and Boris has enough actual reasons to criticise him without comforting our selves by calling him Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    TGOHF666 said:

    She said her plan was "more ambitious" than the Uk targeting 25k per day at that time.

    No wonder she has resorted to shopping scarves..

    Scottish Daily Tests

    1st April : 1,112
    27th April : 1,206

    Uk Daily Tests

    1st April : 10,657
    27th April : 43,590
    Scotland's testing trajectory (Nowhere) is probably what would have happened without Hancock's (slightly overambitious) target being set. As soon as England hits 85,000 tests - that's the target, Scotland, Wales and NI should be at 15k collectively at that point to get to 100k.
  • Chris said:

    Yes. Surely he has acquired permanent immunity to any form of criticism.
    That is just silly. There is plenty to take Boris on about but not his covid illness
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    As I said at the very beginning, the air con needs to be switched off, if we want containment.
    It'll kill pretty much any indoor leisure activity. Cinema, restaurant, nightclubs, pubs... everything
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,422
    Foxy said:

    I am not complaining of his illness, but even before that he was prone to absenteeism, from the prorogation of Parliament onwards. Can you really not see the pattern?
    The Tory members picked lazy over hard-working, funny over solid, panache over calm and ideologically pure over accomplished. I wonder how many will quietly reflect they made the wrong choice.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    rkrkrk said:

    The Tory members picked lazy over hard-working, funny over solid, panache over calm and ideologically pure over accomplished. I wonder how many will quietly reflect they made the wrong choice.
    Yeah they must regret that 80 seat majority he won
  • TOPPING said:

    So are all our PB don't question the government let me know when it's ok to get out from under the table crew happy that BoJo is still not able to function properly as PM?

    I am not surprised if it is true but he will be acting under his doctors advice
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790

    One hour - which in fairness would be testing for a fully fit person.

    Being PM is physically and mentally demanding. Being held to account is a central part of the job description. If he can’t do that right now, he should not be back at work.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,903
    Dura_Ace said:

    "Raring to go" lasted two days... The useless fat sack of shit.

    Where your argument falls down is that when the Observer report on Cummings and SAGE came out I said on here a number of times that it was not credible and that the Observer had got it wrong. If this new report is right, though, it will mean I was wrong.

    I accept that from your perspective i had not seen your comment to.that effect.... nevertheless it is what the left's tactic is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Slackbladder, someone else had an interesting suggestion the other day about beer gardens etc becoming the norm. Not available everywhere, but could be a way to go.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Chris said:

    Yes, but to be fair, how many flights have you been on where someone's head has actually exploded?
    LOL
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    I am not surprised if it is true but he will be acting under his doctors advice
    All good Big G that at a time of unprecedented crisis our PM can't be PM?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,090
    We now know that there have been 8,307 pillar 4 tests - the high-quality serology tests being used for a population survey to determine the true rate of infection.

    I'm not expecting to see the raw results, necessarily, but I can't find any conclusions from this being published at all. It's critically important information about the IFR that will have a big impact on the optimal future strategy.

    Has anyone seen anything about this that I've missed?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,422

    Yeah they must regret that 80 seat majority he won
    Would Hunt have won a majority? I think so.
    But you may be right that Tory members would see an incompetent response to a crisis, which likely cost hundreds if not thousands of lives, as a small price to pay for winning an election and keeping rich people's taxes low.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    So are all our PB don't question the government let me know when it's ok to get out from under the table crew happy that BoJo is still not able to function properly as PM?

    Be realistic.

    He will have to phase back into the job as would anyone in similar circumstances. Should he simply stay off until he's 100% fit? Or should he start back while avoiding the physically most taxing situations until he is able to withstand them physically?

    A footballer returning from injury isn't expected to play a full 90 minutes on their first day back. They return to training then to the pitch often for say 30 minutes off the bench before returning to a full fixture when match fit. Why should a PM who nearly died be any different?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,573
    edited April 2020
    Mango said:

    Setting the bar high.

    Berlusconi for christ's sake. Pure poison for democracy and for functioning institutions, and you are a cheerleader.

    As for Cheney...

    Unbelievable.

    Oh, tell me how they won a few elections. Because that is definitely the most important thing.
    HYUFD is apparently a bigwig in his local Tory branch.

    Reminds me of John Cleese’s “Mr Hilter” character in Monty Python who was planning to stand in North Minehead for the “National Bocialists” party.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155

    That's just silly. Nobody has been treating the scientists like gods. My guess is that the discussions went something like this:

    Scientists: Mr Johnson, you have a choice. According to our current knowledge, the lethality virus is low. If this is the case, a mitigation strategy with no lockdown will work. However, if this is not the case, we'll need a suppression strategy with lockdown (and valuable time will have been lost).

    Boris: The first option sounds great! Low economic cost and I'm sure it'll be fine. Let's do that.

    One week later.

    Scientists: It appears that the virus is indeed more lethal than we thought. Lockdown is now essential, or many, many people will die.

    Boris: Oh shit. Well, it'll have to be a lockdown then. We'll do it next week.

    Cummings: Er, Boris, maybe now would be a better idea!
    There have been comments, in some of the longer articles on what has happened, that the scientists were holding back on presenting options. Because they *thought* they were politically unacceptable - such as lockdown. Will try and have to dig to find the references.
  • TOPPING said:

    All good Big G that at a time of unprecedented crisis our PM can't be PM?
    It is what it is and Raab will continue if necessary

    Boris is going to speak directly to Starmer later today
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155

    Malc, 'the UK' is not making it's 'best efforts' to ensure that Scotland does badly in the coronavirus. For goodness sake.

    Anyway, another beautiful day here.
    Unless Scotland is healthy, there won't be any Scottish babies to eat. Tory 101, for gods sake.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    Be realistic.

    He will have to phase back into the job as would anyone in similar circumstances. Should he simply stay off until he's 100% fit? Or should he start back while avoiding the physically most taxing situations until he is able to withstand them physically?

    A footballer returning from injury isn't expected to play a full 90 minutes on their first day back. They return to training then to the pitch often for say 30 minutes off the bench before returning to a full fixture when match fit. Why should a PM who nearly died be any different?
    It's the PM. As we have seen, nothing very much happens without his say so, oversight, or input. I do not feel in the mood right now, with the UK facing a once in a lifetime crisis, to have a PM who is playing himself back in gradually.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,942
    edited April 2020

    Be realistic.
    He will have to phase back into the job as would anyone in similar circumstances. Should he simply stay off until he's 100% fit? Or should he start back while avoiding the physically most taxing situations until he is able to withstand them physically?
    A footballer returning from injury isn't expected to play a full 90 minutes on their first day back. They return to training then to the pitch often for say 30 minutes off the bench before returning to a full fixture when match fit. Why should a PM who nearly died be any different?
    Perhaps because there are millions of people in the country, who could do a better job than him, and do it full time too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    One hour - which in fairness would be testing for a fully fit person.

    That's a joke, right?

    Read it back to yourself for its inherent comic value.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790

    Be realistic.

    He will have to phase back into the job as would anyone in similar circumstances. Should he simply stay off until he's 100% fit? Or should he start back while avoiding the physically most taxing situations until he is able to withstand them physically?
    A footballer returning from injury isn't expected to play a full 90 minutes on their first day back. They return to training then to the pitch often for say 30 minutes off the bench before returning to a full
    fixture when match fit. Why should a PM who nearly died be any different?
    He is the PM, not a footballer. If he is too unwell to be held accountable for his decisions, he is too unwell to be doing the job currently.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited April 2020

    HYUFD is apparently a bigwig in his local Tory branch.

    Reminds me of John Cleese’s “Mr Hilter” character in Monty Python who was planning to stand in North Minehead for the “National Bocialists” party.
    HYUFD is chairman of his local Cons Party. Which is a great achievement.

    He has a tin ear for anything tangential or conceptual but as a party worker bee he is sans pareil. Which latter he will of course have to look up, being quite parochial also.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019



    He could have died two weeks ago and not only do you dismiss this, but even compare him to Trump

    Apparently we should be comparing him to Berlusconi.

    Way to go, Tories.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,573
    edited April 2020
    TOPPING said:

    That's a joke, right?

    Read it back to yourself for its inherent comic value.
    PB Tories:

    Boris is working hard while sick. He is having his papers sent to him.

    The government is perfectly able to carry on without Boris.

    Thank goodness Boris has returned to get some grip back, he is raring to go.

    Boris is Aslan.

    To be fair PMQs would test even a “fully fit” person.

    It is simply impossible to predict what the next PB Tory meme is. All we know for sure is that we have always been at war with East Asia, and that there are no tanks in Baghdad.
  • Mango said:

    Apparently we should be comparing him to Berlusconi.

    Way to go, Tories.
    If you follow my posts you will see I reject HYUFD posting such rubbish
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    It's the PM. As we have seen, nothing very much happens without his say so, oversight, or input. I do not feel in the mood right now, with the UK facing a once in a lifetime crisis, to have a PM who is playing himself back in gradually.
    It is what it is. Better that he is sensible and follows doctors advice than he returns to 100% too soon and makes his condition worse once more.

    The fact we need his oversight or input is precisely why he is back where it matters most. He's in Downing Street, I'm assuming in Cabinet and COBR. PMQs or Press Conferences Raab can deputise for as long as necessary ... And any cabinets or COBR's he needs to miss too.

    Better back gradually than off completely.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155
    For those who think that the Germans have no sense of humour, I give you -

    "Hamsterkauf" - panic buying.

    Literal translation would be something like "Hamster Action" - from the way that hamsters stuff their cheeks with food.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    rkrkrk said:

    Would Hunt have won a majority? I think so.
    But you may be right that Tory members would see an incompetent response to a crisis, which likely cost hundreds if not thousands of lives, as a small price to pay for winning an election and keeping rich people's taxes low.
    The Brexit Party would still have split the Tory vote under Hunt as he would have stuck to May's Withdrawal Agreement and kept GB in a customs union, so Hunt may not have won a majority.

    The UK has a lower death rate per head than France and Italy and Spain and Belgium
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If you follow my posts you will see I reject HYUFD posting such rubbish
    Everyone sane does.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Walker, ahem. Point of order.

    What I wrote was:
    "For some strange reason I suddenly wish Aslan was PM. I think we'd all be better off if a magic talking lion who is also Jesus was in charge."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Johnson might not be well enough to do the job right now - but do we really want Raab in charge on a permanent basis ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mango said:

    Apparently we should be comparing him to Berlusconi.

    Way to go, Tories.
    HYUFD does not represent Tories. He is the Tory version of a Corbynist without a Corbyn leading the party.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155

    Mr. Walker, ahem. Point of order.

    What I wrote was:
    "For some strange reason I suddenly wish Aslan was PM. I think we'd all be better off if a magic talking lion who is also Jesus was in charge."

    Who fixes everything in the last 10 minutes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    If you follow my posts you will see I reject HYUFD posting such rubbish
    Yes Berlusconi won elections when you were voting for Blair and New Labour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049

    That's just silly. Nobody has been treating the scientists like gods. My guess is that the discussions went something like this:

    Scientists: Mr Johnson, you have a choice. According to our current knowledge, the lethality virus is low. If this is the case, a mitigation strategy with no lockdown will work. However, if this is not the case, we'll need a suppression strategy with lockdown (and valuable time will have been lost).

    Boris: The first option sounds great! Low economic cost and I'm sure it'll be fine. Let's do that.

    One week later.

    Scientists: It appears that the virus is indeed more lethal than we thought. Lockdown is now essential, or many, many people will die.

    Boris: Oh shit. Well, it'll have to be a lockdown then. We'll do it next week.

    Cummings: Er, Boris, maybe now would be a better idea!
    Perhaps.

    The rather more salient point is that it seems that SAGE isn't really distilling the 'best scientific advice' so much as recommending policies based on their understanding of the science on coronavirus.
    Given the government mantra of always following "the best scientific advice", it's hard not to conclude that policymaking has, to an extent, been devolved to the body.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    HYUFD does not represent Tories. He is the Tory version of a Corbynist without a Corbyn leading the party.
    Rubbish, you are a libertarian not a conservative so don't lecture me on what being a Tory is
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,573

    Mr. Walker, ahem. Point of order.

    What I wrote was:
    "For some strange reason I suddenly wish Aslan was PM. I think we'd all be better off if a magic talking lion who is also Jesus was in charge."

    Hehe.

    I was deliberately conflating your post with Halfon’s tweet from yesterday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155
    HYUFD said:

    What a perfectly balanced picture that is.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    rkrkrk said:

    Would Hunt have won a majority? I think so.
    But you may be right that Tory members would see an incompetent response to a crisis, which likely cost hundreds if not thousands of lives, as a small price to pay for winning an election and keeping rich people's taxes low.
    The anger towards Boris on PB is pronounced.

    Just for interest our Furlough payment from the Government hit our bank account this morning. This has kept this business going and 50 people employed. They have done an incredible job to get this system up and running and working so effectively, which is something I thought they had no chance of doing, and they should be commended. But hey lets all moan about Boris having a phased return to work after nearly dying a couple of weeks ago.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    That is just silly. There is plenty to take Boris on about but not his covid illness
    Just responding to your line of defence - "He could have died two weeks ago".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    He is the PM, not a footballer. If he is too unwell to be held accountable for his decisions, he is too unwell to be doing the job currently.

    No he's not. It's entirely within precedent to have someone else stand in on PMQs when the PM is unable to attend. Name one PM ever who never missed a PMQs please.

    He's recovering from nearly dying and transitioning back to 100% while cabinet government continues. Entirely within our British constitution.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    It is what it is. Better that he is sensible and follows doctors advice than he returns to 100% too soon and makes his condition worse once more.

    The fact we need his oversight or input is precisely why he is back where it matters most. He's in Downing Street, I'm assuming in Cabinet and COBR. PMQs or Press Conferences Raab can deputise for as long as necessary ... And any cabinets or COBR's he needs to miss too.

    Better back gradually than off completely.
    That is looking at it through a Boris/Cons Party (of which I am a member) prism.

    Better for Boris that it's steady as she goes.

    For the country, however, I would like someone at 100% fully fit and not a part timer. Are you really happy with someone who is evidently not at optimal capacity to lead us right at this moment?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson might not be well enough to do the job right now - but do we really want Raab in charge on a permanent basis ?

    Comment of the day. And it's only 9:20.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    HYUFD said:

    Yes Berlusconi won elections when you were voting for Blair and New Labour
    And Boris and the Leavers won elections (election) while you were voting Remain. So what?
  • HYUFD said:

    Rubbish, you are a libertarian not a conservative so don't lecture me on what being a Tory is
    You are as bad as any Corbynista and simply do not do our cause for compassion and fairness any good at all

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Being PM is physically and mentally demanding. Being held to account is a central part of the job description. If he can’t do that right now, he should not be back at work.

    I don't have a problem if Johnson feels that for health reasons it is better for Raab to again take PMQs. And anyway it's a pretty trivial issue in the round.

    I do have a problem that the Government has utterly and completely messed up this country's response to the virus at just about every turn, as did the preceeding governments which ran down our resilience over the past decade and failed to prepare even when warned. That is not a trivial issue.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Rubbish, you are a libertarian not a conservative so don't lecture me on what being a Tory is
    I am a libertarian Conservative yes. Like Thatcher, Cameron and Johnson. So I'll lecture you all I like your desire for a purist conservative only party is no different to a Corbynist desire for a socialist only Labour party. Get over yourself.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,422

    The anger towards Boris on PB is pronounced.

    Just for interest our Furlough payment from the Government hit our bank account this morning. This has kept this business going and 50 people employed. They have done an incredible job to get this system up and running and working so effectively, which is something I thought they had no chance of doing, and they should be commended. But hey lets all moan about Boris having a phased return to work after nearly dying a couple of weeks ago.

    The furlough scheme is a great idea - and the UK seems to be doing very well on that front. You're right that is an incredible job if it is making payments already.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    rkrkrk said:

    The furlough scheme is a great idea - and the UK seems to be doing very well on that front. You're right that is an incredible job if it is making payments already.
    I cannot remember a time that I have be so surprised and impressed at the talent and efficiency of a Giovernment and their civil servants to create and deliver an initiative in this way.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    As I said on Monday, he looks to have come back way too early. If he can’t do PMQs, what else can’t he do?

    Dan Snow was on the BBC this morning, and in the course of conversation remarked that Lloyd George, while PM, had 'been flat on his back, the equivalent of intensive care' with the Spanish Flu in 1919.
    Must admit I didn't know, and there doesn't ever seem to have been a big thing about it.
    It was however, the catalyst for the establishment of a Ministry of Health, according to Snow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    TOPPING said:

    For the country, however, I would like someone at 100% fully fit and not a part timer. Are you really happy with someone who is evidently not at optimal capacity to lead us right at this moment?
    Who would you rather have?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    That is looking at it through a Boris/Cons Party (of which I am a member) prism.

    Better for Boris that it's steady as she goes.

    For the country, however, I would like someone at 100% fully fit and not a part timer. Are you really happy with someone who is evidently not at optimal capacity to lead us right at this moment?
    No I'm looking at it from the country perspective. Our country doesn't have a President it never has and I think it is better the PM recovers taking charge of what he can when he can than being an extremist view of all or nothing.

    Can you tell me how the country will improve at all by having Raab as permanent full time Prime Minister instead of having him deputise where required as part of a British cabinet government?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    rkrkrk said:

    The furlough scheme is a great idea - and the UK seems to be doing very well on that front. You're right that is an incredible job if it is making payments already.
    We seem to have raced ahead of France on the testing front too.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Prime Minister should either be on sick leave or he should be performing his duties. There isn't a halfway house. Clue: he should be on sick leave.

    If he had paid more attention to his duties when he was fully fit he, and we, wouldn’t be in quite so bad a mess now.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    I don't have a problem if Johnson feels that for health reasons it is better for Raab to again take PMQs. And anyway it's a pretty trivial issue in the round.

    I do have a problem that the Government has utterly and completely messed up this country's response to the virus at just about every turn, as did the preceeding governments which ran down our resilience over the past decade and failed to prepare even when warned. That is not a trivial issue.
    Utterly and completely messed up?? So in your view they have done nothing right
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The Prime Minister should either be on sick leave or he should be performing his duties. There isn't a halfway house. Clue: he should be on sick leave.

    If he had paid more attention to his duties when he was fully fit he, and we, wouldn’t be in quite so bad a mess now.

    That's not the NHS, doctors or governments advice for returning to work. Returning to work from a near death experience has never been a case of all or nothing no halfway house.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    That's not the NHS, doctors or governments advice for returning to work. Returning to work from a near death experience has never been a case of all or nothing no halfway house.
    If he can’t do Prime Minister’s Questions, he can’t do the job. Being held to account is a central part of the role.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    edited April 2020

    My state pension exceeds £12,500 as I did not contract out of SERPS and it was one of the best financial decisions I ever made
    Mine's a bit less as I had a period of self-employment, but my NHS pension is excellent, although I only worked for it for about 15 years. But on the general point I agree with Mr G.

    In Natural History news the tenant of our nest-box is now sitting on 11 eggs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Walker, well, quite.

    Welcome to PB Tory Club.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    He refused to wear a mask because he "wanted to look them in the eyes" Eh?

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1255387533636186115?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    HYUFD said:

    Rubbish, you are a libertarian not a conservative so don't lecture me on what being a Tory is
    You're quite happy to lecture everyone else on the matter.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If I was a supermarket currently basking in the flow of massive extra sales I would be shit scared of the post Covid world of my high value customers discovering the twin knives of the reliability of subscription services and the value & quality uplift of getting orders from catering wholesalers who have pivoted into home delivery.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    Dura_Ace said:

    "Raring to go" lasted two days... The useless fat sack of shit.
    I was given some abuse a few days ago for describing him as the FF; Fat Fornicator.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    edited April 2020

    It'll kill pretty much any indoor leisure activity. Cinema, restaurant, nightclubs, pubs... everything
    No, it just requires HEPA filters to be mandatory (and effective).
    Businesses which are actually planning to reopen should have this at the top of their list.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,573
    Nigelb said:

    You're quite happy to lecture everyone else on the matter.
    And will repeatedly quote mendacious “statistics” until the cows come home.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,422

    If he can’t do Prime Minister’s Questions, he can’t do the job. Being held to account is a central part of the role.
    Disagree on this. Missing a PMQs doesn't seem a big deal to me (heresy on here I know).
    If he had a normal cold today, he should skip it, but he would certainly still be PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,667
    HYUFD said:

    Rubbish, you are a libertarian not a conservative so don't lecture me on what being a Tory is
    Love a bit of right-wing civil war in the morning, with my breakfast. Please, do continue.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,504

    Cummings had far more sense than the scientists then.

    Thank goodness he was there.
    Cummings may well have been giving sensible advice. But this claim, if true (and it paints Cummings in a good light and the scientists in a bad one, it’s worth noting) does rather undermine the previous claims that the government was “following the science”.

    Of course the decision was a mixture of science and politics. But it feels as if the government is trying to make its decision seem inevitable, rather than a decision for which Ministers - rather than scientists - should be accountable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    I am a libertarian Conservative yes. Like Thatcher, Cameron and Johnson. So I'll lecture you all I like your desire for a purist conservative only party is no different to a Corbynist desire for a socialist only Labour party. Get over yourself.
    Thatcher was not a libertarian, nor really are Cameron and Johnson.

    Osborne maybe but if you think the Tories would have won the last general election on a platform of more austerity and deeper spending cuts you are deluded
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Pulpstar said:

    We seem to have raced ahead of France on the testing front too.
    Well according to the majority of PB this morning the Government has completely messed everything up and it would have been better if Boris had died.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Dan Snow was on the BBC this morning, and in the course of conversation remarked that Lloyd George, while PM, had 'been flat on his back, the equivalent of intensive care' with the Spanish Flu in 1919.
    Must admit I didn't know, and there doesn't ever seem to have been a big thing about it.
    It was however, the catalyst for the establishment of a Ministry of Health, according to Snow.
    Subsequently MacDonald, Chamberlain, Churchill, Eden, MacMillan and Wilson (by 1976 he had symptoms of colon cancer and early onset Alzheimers) also experienced serious illness in office.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If he can’t do Prime Minister’s Questions, he can’t do the job. Being held to account is a central part of the role.
    If he can't do PMQs he has to send a deputy to be held to account. Same as every other PM ever.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    I cannot remember a time that I have be so surprised and impressed at the talent and efficiency of a Giovernment and their civil servants to create and deliver an initiative in this way.
    One of the successes imo of govt in recent years is that amount of stuff you can do online eg car tax, indeed self-assessment tax, etc. All extremely efficient.

    Boris, however, should not be trying to do a job he is manifestly unfit (in the literal sense) to do.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Wouldn't the UK regulations prevent you leaving your house for non-essential dental treatment?
    I don't think so, as any form of healthcare seems to be considered "essential". "Essential" does not have to mean "emergency".
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    If he can't do PMQs he has to send a deputy to be held to account. Same as every other PM ever.
    No. Not the same as every PM ever. Prime Ministers have given, rightly, Prime Minister’s Questions very high priority. They usually miss it only if they are out of the country.

    The current Prime Minister is missing it today, it seems, solely because he is not up to the job. If he is not up to the job, he shouldn’t be playing at doing it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291

    The Prime Minister should either be on sick leave or he should be performing his duties. There isn't a halfway house. Clue: he should be on sick leave.

    If he had paid more attention to his duties when he was fully fit he, and we, wouldn’t be in quite so bad a mess now.

    As I postulated a few days ago, I think Johnson will be keen to prolong this period whereby with the (valid) excuse of "still a bit weak" he can keep hold of the strings of power but duck out of anything he finds tedious or smacks of hard work such as PMQs or in depth reading of papers. It's a most acceptable situation for him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher was not a libertarian, nor really are Cameron and Johnson.

    Osborne maybe but if you think the Tories would have won the last general election on a platform of more austerity and deeper spending cuts you are deluded
    Thatcher was libertarian. So were Cameron and Johnson.

    If you think anyone would ever win an election on your platform of only true believer conservatives f**k everyone else they should vote for someone else platform then you are deluded. You are worse than Iain Duncan Smith, whom it wouldn't surprise me if you supported.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239

    If he can’t do Prime Minister’s Questions, he can’t do the job. Being held to account is a central part of the role.
    I`d say it depends on the circumstances. If a PM couldn`t do the full role because he or she has a permanant and recurring illness this would be one thing, a PM who is temporarily incapacitated for a relatively short period is another.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    Two years old, but interesting insight into Trump's most vocal supporters:

    https://psmag.com/news/inside-the-minds-of-hardcore-trump-supporters
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,903
    Stocky said:

    I`d say it depends on the circumstances. If a PM couldn`t do the full role because he or she has a permanant and recurring illness this would be one thing, a PM who is temporarily incapacitated for a relatively short period is another.
    Ist it the Govt that is held to account....
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,942

    No I'm looking at it from the country perspective. Our country doesn't have a President it never has and I think it is better the PM recovers taking charge of what he can when he can than being an extremist view of all or nothing.
    Can you tell me how the country will improve at all by having Raab as permanent full time Prime Minister instead of having him deputise where required as part of a British cabinet government?
    I am not convinced that Raab is the answer. On the other hand, it does appear that the present Cabinet is incapable of taking any real decisions without being given instructions by the prime minister, so the sooner we get a fully functioning prime minister, the better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    Norm said:

    Subsequently MacDonald, Chamberlain, Churchill, Eden, MacMillan and Wilson (by 1976 he had symptoms of colon cancer and early onset Alzheimers) also experienced serious illness in office.
    None of those were particularly purple patches for their administrations...
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    If Sweden can cope without a lockdown, we can, right?

    - Sweden has massive restrictions still. You know that, right?

    But not a lockdown

    - And if we go to Swedish levels of restriction, the majority of what is not allowed will still be, you know, not allowed.

    But they're doing fine, right? Better than us. So maybe, if we'd not limited infectivity as much, we'd have... fewer infections? I'm sorry, that made more sense before I said it.

    - Really?

    But - their death rate is lower than ours! So if we did what they're doing, logically, our death rate would be lower. And we can go to the pub, still.

    - Not really. Infection spread is a function of where people are in relation to each other and what they're doing. It's very difficult to compare between countries. Different distributions of people (what proportion of your people live in cities, towns, and the countryside, how dense are your cities and towns, how interconneted your country is), different lifestyles and cultures (the difference in desired personal space between cultures is massive, the way people socialise and live), different economic setups (if everyone works alone on farms, versus everyone working in shared and dense offices), different geographical factors (how extensive are their borders with other land countries and how any people from other countries pass through them regularly) and so forth. These are huge factors.

    Well, that's convenient, isn't it?

    - No. Not really. Why would it be "convenient"?

    You lockdown supporters can just dismiss solid evidence like Sweden without taking it on board!

    - "Lockdown supporters"? You think I ENJOY this? That it's an ideological or partisan support? That I'm happy my severely autistic son is in near constant distress, that my Mum is going mad from loneliness, that I'm stuck here day after day after day after sodding day?

    So why don't you support an end to the lockdown, huh? Why do you keep arguing against it?

    - Because reality doesn't give two shits what any of us want or argue for. Reality IS. In fact, that's almost the DEFINITION of reality: that which exists whether you like it or believe in it or not. And the reality is that there's a pandemic raging across the world, that unchecked it grows exponentially (which, despite Hollywood's misues of the term, means something far more significant than just "very fast"), and that carrying out extensive restrictions on human interactions reduces infectivity extensively. And that we're finally - despite our population density, despite our interconnected lives and economy, despite all our dense cities and towns - bringing it down. And I don't want it to go shooting up again.

    [part 1 of 2]
  • eekeek Posts: 28,798

    No. Not the same as every PM ever. Prime Ministers have given, rightly, Prime Minister’s Questions very high priority. They usually miss it only if they are out of the country.

    The current Prime Minister is missing it today, it seems, solely because he is not up to the job. If he is not up to the job, he shouldn’t be playing at doing it.
    Ever heard of a staged return to work?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Okay. We can argue over the death rate, and whether or not I, in particular, am vulnerable if we lift the lockdown...

    - Let's not. No-one really knows, and I'm tired of people going "I found THIS on the internet which says what I want it to say." We don't know. We don't know what the IFR actually is - it's probably somewhere between 0.4% and 1.0%; we don't know if survivors are permanently damaged; we don't know if children can or cannot pass it on; we don't know what would happen to those in younger and fitter demographics if the health service was overwhelmed, so there's not much use in that. Far more heat than light.

    Okay. But what about Sweden? Are you going to continue to dismiss it?

    - If you like, we CAN do a comparison.

    You said we couldn't.

    - Usually, we can't. But it happens that Sweden is one of a trio of very similar countries. Similar distributions of people, similar lifestyles and cultures, similar geographically, and fairly similar economic setups. Similar history - even similar languages. Hell, they've been one country before now, or two countries, dependent on who Norway was part of. The Nordic countries: Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. Sweden's population is a bit less than that of the other two added together. Denmark is a bit denser population-wise, and has a significant land border with Germany and close to the extremely population dense region of the Benelux area, but other than that - very close, overall. It would probably be the most meaningful comparison between countries of almost any selected countries.

    And what do you get?

    - Well, if all three did the same thing, you'd expect Denmark to be hit the worst (highest population densities and most borders with other countries). Then Sweden (bigger than the other two and with a border with Denmark), and then Norway. Denmark and Norway both locked down, so here's the cumulative death tolls for both of them (scaled up to the level they would be if they had Sweden-level populations) and a "counterfactual Sweden" exactly half way between the two. It's a very crude model, but should be broadly indicative.



    - And this is what actually happened with Sweden. If all else was the same (it never quite is), then the only difference would be the lockdown issue.



    - And, to add crude model onto crude model, we can derive a multiplier factor from the first one (as infections spread multiplicatively). If (and, as said above, this "If" is bearing a lot of weight) the only different factor was the lockdown-or-Swedish-partial-lockdown, we could apply the multiplier to reported death rates in hospitals in England and get this:



    - Bear in mind my original insistence that we CAN'T compare countries to countries. But if we did, the best comparison we can have with running a counterfactual on "What would have happened if we followed Sweden's route" is right there.
    [part 2 of 2]
  • Mine's a bit less as I had a period of self-employment, but my NHS pension is excellent, although I only worked for it for about 15 years. But on the general point I agree with Mr G.

    In Natural History news the tenant of our nest-box is now sitting on 11 eggs.
    I understand my state pension which includes an uplift of over £5,000 pa from serps is much higher than average and entirely due to the serps content

    And how fabulous about your tenant.

    We have watched our robin's nest inside our greenhouse over the last three weeks as the parents diligently fed their young. Yesterday the three young robins left their nest and it seems strange not to see the parents going in and out of the greenhouse as we left the door open for them
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    eek said:

    Ever heard of a staged return to work?
    Sure. You still have to be able to do the job. Evidently, Boris Johnson isn’t.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    Norm said:

    Subsequently MacDonald, Chamberlain, Churchill, Eden, MacMillan and Wilson (by 1976 he had symptoms of colon cancer and early onset Alzheimers) also experienced serious illness in office.
    Well, I have a personal memory of the illnesses of those from Churchill onwards, and I knew about the first two. In other words they were public knowledge. Wilson's mental condition was, of course, why he resigned.
This discussion has been closed.