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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating their key voting group – the over 70s?

GE2017 might seem a long time ago but TMay’s government saw on that day what can happen when the oldies are hacked off. It might be recalled that there was marked decline in the numbers of over 70s actually voting following the fury over the “Dementia Tax”. The turnout change amongst the oldies was far greater than other age groups.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    First like Boris
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited April 2020
    Depends whether Keir offers anything different; he might make a conscious play for the oldie vote like Jez with those waspi women. As oldies are putting themselves at risk and as people seem to get more timid as they get older (paradoxically as they have less to lose) and will therefore mostly self-isolate voluntarily, I don't see the point of forcing them to stay inside.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    The over 70s I know wont do it. Twelve weeks, yeh, ok. For the rest of the year: 'sod that.'
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    IshmaelZ said:

    Depends whether Keir offers anything different.

    will be same crap different arses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Are we going to see the police harassing the over 70s?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    "Collective punishment" is an extraordinarily strange choice of words.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    noneoftheabove said:

    "Collective punishment" is an extraordinarily strange choice of words.

    I don't think it's extraordinary at all. There are many over 70s who are healthier than 55 year olds.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    For @eadric

    https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Either they upset the oldies now or they upset them in Winter, when the economy is utterly destroyed and they all therefore die of starvation or hypothermia.

    Separating the population into the over and under 70s (in fact, arguably, it really should be the over and under 60s) and locking the older fraction away for the duration seems the least worst option, given what we know of the mortality patterns of the illness - 96% of all deaths, according to up-to-date figures from Italy, are amongst the over 60s.

    Nor is all the burden placed upon the old under these circumstances: restarting the economy, which is going to have to be done progressively if we aren't all to perish, basically, entails withdrawal of measures like the furlough scheme and commanding younger people to go back to work and take their chances. Some of those people who would otherwise have survived if they stayed at home are going to die of Covid-19 as a direct result of that decision.

    It's bloody horrible and it's not fair, but viruses don't know anything about fairness.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited April 2020
    squareroot2 said:

    First like Boris

    I'm reading that although recovered physically he is a quieter, more introspective, slightly tentative individual compared to before. Perhaps make for a better leader?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    I think that Priti Patel managed to get all the numbers right this time. It's a start.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Grim stats today, frankly.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I see its the D-team out today for the government.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    If you're going to lock the oldies down, it has to be voluntary. They have to want it. Unless you want the spectacle of the rozzers bundling OAPs into the back of paddy wagons and jailing them along hardened crims for the crime of wanting to see their grandkids.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Did Spurs’ twitter team know today was the 14th anniversary of the invincibles winning the league at White Hart Lane?

    https://twitter.com/spursofficial/status/1253956914083487745?s=21
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Mysticrose said:

    Grim stats today, frankly.

    Explain please.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    another_richard said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Grim stats today, frankly.

    Explain please.
    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-hospital-deaths-rise-by-813-taking-total-to-20-319-11978678
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    kyf_100 said:

    If you're going to lock the oldies down, it has to be voluntary. They have to want it. Unless you want the spectacle of the rozzers bundling OAPs into the back of paddy wagons and jailing them along hardened crims for the crime of wanting to see their grandkids.

    My wife and I (80) and (76) will remain in lockdown as long as it takes and even when it is lifted we will not be rushing to go into town
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Finding it hard to understand how we are still adding 66 deaths from a fortnight or more back?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kyf_100 said:

    If you're going to lock the oldies down, it has to be voluntary. They have to want it. Unless you want the spectacle of the rozzers bundling OAPs into the back of paddy wagons and jailing them along hardened crims for the crime of wanting to see their grandkids.

    My wife and I (80) and (76) will remain in lockdown as long as it takes and even when it is lifted we will not be rushing to go into town
    That is absolutely in line with the all the elderly neighbours round here.

    They certainly aren't going to be blaming Boris if they have stay put a few weeks more. They are smart enough to know that, if it is longer than that, it is down to the science.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    There's a fair few countries easing lockdown and none of them have made age related rules (except the Spanish, with children), so it would look harsh if we did it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    the Donald focusing on important issues...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254022414058631170?s=19
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    In some ways the most alarming news for me today is the latest WHO report that there is no evidence that getting the virus once gives you antibodies or immunity.

    If that's the case, there goes the so-called "herd immunity."
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Black_Rook said:

    Either they upset the oldies now or they upset them in Winter, when the economy is utterly destroyed and they all therefore die of starvation or hypothermia.

    Separating the population into the over and under 70s (in fact, arguably, it really should be the over and under 60s) and locking the older fraction away for the duration seems the least worst option, given what we know of the mortality patterns of the illness - 96% of all deaths, according to up-to-date figures from Italy, are amongst the over 60s.

    Nor is all the burden placed upon the old under these circumstances: restarting the economy, which is going to have to be done progressively if we aren't all to perish, basically, entails withdrawal of measures like the furlough scheme and commanding younger people to go back to work and take their chances. Some of those people who would otherwise have survived if they stayed at home are going to die of Covid-19 as a direct result of that decision.

    It's bloody horrible and it's not fair, but viruses don't know anything about fairness.

    "Separating the population into the over and under 70s (in fact, arguably, it really should be the over and under 60s)"

    LOLs. I am 61. Best make it the over and under 65s ... ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see its the D-team out today for the government.

    Who?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    It would help if you interpreted the stats. Any death is grim. your statement is that of the bleeding obvious.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    bigjohnowls said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see its the D-team out today for the government.

    Who?
    The worst boss in Westminster...Mrs Patel.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MarqueeMark said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kyf_100 said:

    If you're going to lock the oldies down, it has to be voluntary. They have to want it. Unless you want the spectacle of the rozzers bundling OAPs into the back of paddy wagons and jailing them along hardened crims for the crime of wanting to see their grandkids.

    My wife and I (80) and (76) will remain in lockdown as long as it takes and even when it is lifted we will not be rushing to go into town
    That is absolutely in line with the all the elderly neighbours round here.

    They certainly aren't going to be blaming Boris if they have stay put a few weeks more. They are smart enough to know that, if it is longer than that, it is down to the science.
    And my guess is that, regardless of what the scientific- and evidence-based policy recommendations that come out, the older people themselves are going to be more risk averse and more conservative in their own behaviours, voluntarily. I do not see how this will adversely impact the Tory vote on its own.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    bigjohnowls said:

    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S

    Trump is far from a laughing stock, he is an ever present threat to peoples health and safety. He is just the worst POTUS I can remember and sadly, at this critical time, not suited to be anywhere near the levers of power
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2020
    squareroot2 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    It would help if you interpreted the stats. Any death is grim. your statement is that of the bleeding obvious.

    This, ladies and gents, comes courtesy of the dickhead who said it was all a hoax and that deaths wouldn't exceed 16 a day.

    The stats are grim because they show a rise, which has been occurring for three days. No overall decline would be expected to be linear but, even so, every sane and sensible (not you, obvs) person will be a touch disheartened by today's figures.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2020
    Looks like a pretty sharp drop in hospital admissions/ occupied critical care beds.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited April 2020
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    image

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Mysticrose said:

    In some ways the most alarming news for me today is the latest WHO report that there is no evidence that getting the virus once gives you antibodies or immunity.

    If that's the case, there goes the so-called "herd immunity."

    Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
    It looks like what they’ve said is that the level of antibodies you get afterwards appears to be variable and in some cases may not be enough to protect you from a second infection.

    Decent and reliable antibody tests would help indicate protection or lack of it, as would more studies.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FPT:
    bigjohnowls said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pretty bad new death numbers today.

    Expecting them to drop to virtually zero by July looks optimistic in the extreme.

    Been saying for a while we are headed for highest number of deaths in Europe.

    I expect when we do so, the daily slides will change to measuring deaths on a per million population basis.
    That will for a while at least , not have us as worst.

    The figures are massively skewed today due to a large number of back dated deaths from early April. Here is the trend...

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041726811078656?s=20

    However, I think it is clear from all countries (except China) that there is a long tail where we will see significant deaths for a long period to come.
    Is that the graph that everybody says is misleading as last 4 days will increase?
    Which is why it stops 4 days ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1254067697857572864?s=20
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S

    Trump is far from a laughing stock, he is an ever present threat to peoples health and safety. He is just the worst POTUS I can remember and sadly, at this critical time, not suited to be anywhere near the levers of power
    Indeed. Even if his sarcasm explanation were true, WTF is he doing being sarcastic in a press conference where what the nation needs is clear, concise, actionable guidance?

    He is a danger to all Americans and the world. Plain and simple.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    the Donald focusing on important issues...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254022414058631170?s=19

    18.5 million reasons to do so.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    I really do think we should avoid politics in this crisis....

    If locking up the over 70's is the right thing...then do it....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,488
    I wonder if such a law or restriction could be subject to a successful legal challenge under the Equalities Act.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    Errr, those are the number of deaths occurring in UK hospitals during the last 24 hours. Not March. Not reported today but which happened in 1919. Last 24 hours.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-hospital-deaths-rise-by-813-taking-total-to-20-319-11978678

    "Dr Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said the UK could end up having one of the highest mortality rates in Europe.

    Speaking to PA, he warned: "Our deaths are increasing more rapidly than any other country really apart from the US. But the US is still a long way behind us in terms of deaths per one million of the population."

    This will put a damper on the calls for lockdown to ease.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited April 2020
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1254067697857572864?s=20

    Slides and data from the press conference -

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881292/2020-04-25_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__5_.pptx.pdf

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881291/2020-04-25_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Data__4_.xlsx

    and NHS England stats at -

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    IshmaelZ said:

    There's a fair few countries easing lockdown and none of them have made age related rules (except the Spanish, with children), so it would look harsh if we did it.

    No I can't see it. Perhaps advisory but not in any sense policed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    The southern half of the UK is one of the most densely populated areas in Europe, which means it was always going to be hit hard by a epidemic of this type. We've done well to keep the numbers under 1,000 a day at the peak IMO.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited April 2020
    Graph updates:



    7 day cumulative trend still going down. I've removed the trendline because it was shit, from Monday I'm off work so will spend some time looking into a linear regression model for day 2 and day 3 extrapolated to day 7 and day 14. I'll also try and do a forecasting model based on publicly available data, but I'm not sure how far I'll get.

    On the issue of late reporting, only 68% of reported deaths were from the past 7 days, that compares to ~92% on any other day. The issue with late reporting is that dents public confidence in the lockdown measures which are working. If someone without data experience looked at the headline figures they would assume that nothing was changing, but we've gone from ~700 deaths per day in England to ~ 500 deaths per day and falling. I think the 20th will be another mini-peak like the 15th, but the overall trend is very clear now. We are winning this war, just a lot more slowly than we would have liked.

    With all of the late reporting it looks like the 10 days from the 2nd to the 11th were absolutely horrific, which lines up to around 3-4 weeks after Cheltenham and the final large gatherings took place. That week now looks absolutely awful and questions need to be asked SAGE, the government and other advisors as to why they were allowed to take place when so many other countries were locking down.

    Finally the week-on-week change in deaths, it's still a nice downwards trend:


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,488
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    the Donald focusing on important issues...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254022414058631170?s=19

    His base will love that.

    Hell, even I like it a little bit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    The cynic in me wonders if the order has gone out: "Get all the deaths that might be Covid from however far back into the numbers before Boris gets back, so he can bring with him the happy decline in deaths..."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Oh yes - that is probably the best summation we have to date.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S

    Trump is far from a laughing stock, he is an ever present threat to peoples health and safety. He is just the worst POTUS I can remember and sadly, at this critical time, not suited to be anywhere near the levers of power
    100% agree. He IS a laughing stock too but there's a danger in viewing him too much like that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/JCBua/status/1254040490846162950?s=20
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Mysticrose said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    Errr, those are the number of deaths occurring in UK hospitals during the last 24 hours. Not March. Not reported today but which happened in 1919. Last 24 hours.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-hospital-deaths-rise-by-813-taking-total-to-20-319-11978678

    "Dr Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said the UK could end up having one of the highest mortality rates in Europe.

    Speaking to PA, he warned: "Our deaths are increasing more rapidly than any other country really apart from the US. But the US is still a long way behind us in terms of deaths per one million of the population."

    This will put a damper on the calls for lockdown to ease.
    Nope. For the 711 deaths in England:
    105 of the deaths occurred yesterday.
    236 occurred on the 23rd of April
    66 on the 22nd of April
    37 on the 21st of April
    23 on the 20th of April
    8 on the 19th of April
    11 on the 18th of April
    7 on the 17th of April
    3 on the 16th, 6 on the 15th, 2 on the 14th, 5 on the 13th, 3 on the 12th, 2 on the 11th, 5 on the 10th, 9 on the 9th, 14 on the 8th, 14 on the 7th, 22 on the 6th, and so on.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 500
    edited April 2020
    Mysticrose said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    Errr, those are the number of deaths occurring in UK hospitals during the last 24 hours. Not March. Not reported today but which happened in 1919. Last 24 hours.
    No they're not. Your Sky source states "The majority of those deaths - 18,084 (up 711) - are in England" - you can see here that only 105 of those 711 occured on 24 April.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2020
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256513/Britain-breaches-grim-20-000-death-milestone-781-deaths-announced-UK.html

    "Britain has announced a further 813 coronavirus victims today, taking the total number of fatalities in the UK to 20,319.

    The grim milestone - which also saw the number of people testing positive for coronavirus rise by 4,913 to 148,377 - came as the coronavirus lockdown continued into its fifth weekend and the government faced calls for greater transparency over the scientific advice given to ministers on the outbreak.

    In reality, deaths in the UK from coronavirus probably topped 20,000 several days ago.

    The figure does not include deaths in care homes, which the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates could account for half of all deaths in Europe."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see its the D-team out today for the government.

    most will be away at their holiday homes for the weekend
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JCBua/status/1254040490846162950?s=20

    I did wonder if the rumoured Chinese team who went there might have been specialist surgeons to give him a lung transplant, like senior Chinese Communist Party officials were rumoured to have had. But of course, that couldn't be the case, because there is no Covid-19 in North Korea, so that couldn't possibly be right.....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    TimT said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S

    Trump is far from a laughing stock, he is an ever present threat to peoples health and safety. He is just the worst POTUS I can remember and sadly, at this critical time, not suited to be anywhere near the levers of power
    Indeed. Even if his sarcasm explanation were true, WTF is he doing being sarcastic in a press conference where what the nation needs is clear, concise, actionable guidance?

    He is a danger to all Americans and the world. Plain and simple.
    Yes, exactly. I used to think he'd be just an unpredictable populist, prone to doing things for short-term gain. But he's a *childish* populist. We used to debate whether 16-year-olds were too young to get the vote - if I think of the teenagers that I know, there isn't one who I don't think would do a better, more mature job.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Andy_JS said:

    The southern half of the UK is one of the most densely populated areas in Europe, which means it was always going to be hit hard by a epidemic of this type. We've done well to keep the numbers under 1,000 a day at the peak IMO.

    If indeed we have. Inclusion of care home deaths might suggest otherwise.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    https://twitter.com/Egbert_PengWu/status/1254054589718040578
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Mysticrose said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    Errr, those are the number of deaths occurring in UK hospitals during the last 24 hours. Not March. Not reported today but which happened in 1919. Last 24 hours.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-hospital-deaths-rise-by-813-taking-total-to-20-319-11978678

    "Dr Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said the UK could end up having one of the highest mortality rates in Europe.

    Speaking to PA, he warned: "Our deaths are increasing more rapidly than any other country really apart from the US. But the US is still a long way behind us in terms of deaths per one million of the population."

    This will put a damper on the calls for lockdown to ease.
    That's not how the stats work. The announcement and reporting are not related to the previous day's actual deaths. The stats lag by around 7-10 days before we get a full picture of what has happened. Unfortunately the way the reporting works the public is in the dark about what is actually happening right now on the ground.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    bigjohnowls said:

    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S

    My view is that the very fact that Trump is a laughing stock from any rational point of view is precisely why he's popular with his supporters. They feel that what has passed for political rationality over the last 20 years or so hasn't worked for them, in the way that it did before that time. If "rational" policies lead to a decline in your standard of living, you start to lose confidence in it.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
    Sure - try:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited April 2020
    On topic, as somene who just turned 70, I think it'd be fair enough as a first approximation. Those of us who are in good health could perhaps apply for exemption from the ban, in the same way as I think (with some trepidation) that people over 70 should be asked to retake their driving test to show they're familiar with currennt regulations.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    NickPalmer said:

    TimT said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    If anyone ever again questions whether or not #TrumpIsALaughingStock, just show them this brilliance from @sarahcpr https://t.co/GLZUuuax8S

    Trump is far from a laughing stock, he is an ever present threat to peoples health and safety. He is just the worst POTUS I can remember and sadly, at this critical time, not suited to be anywhere near the levers of power
    Indeed. Even if his sarcasm explanation were true, WTF is he doing being sarcastic in a press conference where what the nation needs is clear, concise, actionable guidance?

    He is a danger to all Americans and the world. Plain and simple.
    Yes, exactly. I used to think he'd be just an unpredictable populist, prone to doing things for short-term gain. But he's a *childish* populist. We used to debate whether 16-year-olds were too young to get the vote - if I think of the teenagers that I know, there isn't one who I don't think would do a better, more mature job.
    I can think of one or two.

    But then I teach about 150 or so...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Mysticrose said:

    In some ways the most alarming news for me today is the latest WHO report that there is no evidence that getting the virus once gives you antibodies or immunity.

    If that's the case, there goes the so-called "herd immunity."

    However they did not say their was any evidence to the opposite , ie they have no clue.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Also on the question of 1000 deaths in a single day, it's pretty likely that this happened on the 8th, deaths in England are now up to 855 for the day, with the other three nations it is likely to be near or over 1000 for the day. Including non-hospital deaths it was probably around 1400-1600.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Andy_Cooke said:

    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
    Sure - try:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium

    Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Mysticrose said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256513/Britain-breaches-grim-20-000-death-milestone-781-deaths-announced-UK.html

    "Britain has announced a further 813 coronavirus victims today, taking the total number of fatalities in the UK to 20,319.

    The grim milestone - which also saw the number of people testing positive for coronavirus rise by 4,913 to 148,377 - came as the coronavirus lockdown continued into its fifth weekend and the government faced calls for greater transparency over the scientific advice given to ministers on the outbreak.

    In reality, deaths in the UK from coronavirus probably topped 20,000 several days ago.

    The figure does not include deaths in care homes, which the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates could account for half of all deaths in Europe."

    To see how those deaths line up to the days in which they occurred (in England), See:
    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see its the D-team out today for the government.

    Who?
    The worst boss in Westminster...Mrs Patel.
    Imagine her on SAGE.

    That would give the feckless scientists something to think about.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    FPT:

    Andy’s posts are very helpful, and I am greatly reassured by the way the numbers are trending, as well as the least estimates from Imperial.

    Some form of easing from May 10 is absolutely the right thing to do; maybe even a partial reopening of the primary school system.

    Encouragement for over 60s to observe extra measures through May would of course be fine.

    I believe we locked down too late (said so at the time and was criticised on here) and we are now to slow to *communicate* the likely easing of lock down.

    The first has cost us unnecessary deaths, the latter will cost unnecessary economic damage.

    Govt planning and comms have been really underwhelming, but they do get a C pass for avoiding an NHS meltdown - just in the nick of time if you listen to Ferguson.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    malcolmg said:

    Mysticrose said:

    In some ways the most alarming news for me today is the latest WHO report that there is no evidence that getting the virus once gives you antibodies or immunity.

    If that's the case, there goes the so-called "herd immunity."

    However they did not say their was any evidence to the opposite , ie they have no clue.
    malcolmg said:

    Mysticrose said:

    In some ways the most alarming news for me today is the latest WHO report that there is no evidence that getting the virus once gives you antibodies or immunity.

    If that's the case, there goes the so-called "herd immunity."

    However they did not say their was any evidence to the opposite , ie they have no clue.
    WHO have had a shit crisis too.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    Errr, those are the number of deaths occurring in UK hospitals during the last 24 hours. Not March. Not reported today but which happened in 1919. Last 24 hours.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-hospital-deaths-rise-by-813-taking-total-to-20-319-11978678

    "Dr Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said the UK could end up having one of the highest mortality rates in Europe.

    Speaking to PA, he warned: "Our deaths are increasing more rapidly than any other country really apart from the US. But the US is still a long way behind us in terms of deaths per one million of the population."

    This will put a damper on the calls for lockdown to ease.
    Nope. For the 711 deaths in England:
    105 of the deaths occurred yesterday.
    236 occurred on the 23rd of April
    66 on the 22nd of April
    37 on the 21st of April
    23 on the 20th of April
    8 on the 19th of April
    11 on the 18th of April
    7 on the 17th of April
    3 on the 16th, 6 on the 15th, 2 on the 14th, 5 on the 13th, 3 on the 12th, 2 on the 11th, 5 on the 10th, 9 on the 9th, 14 on the 8th, 14 on the 7th, 22 on the 6th, and so on.
    Would you mind posting a link to these figures?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
    Sure - try:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium

    Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.
    Trying to embed it in this page:


    (image from David Paton)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Andy_JS said:

    "Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/

    Didn't Brezhnev die in 1976 and was wheeled around as a stuffed mannequin for some years after?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Andy_Cooke said:

    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
    Sure - try:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium

    Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.
    Trying to embed it in this page:


    (image from David Paton)
    Thanks - these look encouraging. 8 April still looks like the peak.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Also on the question of 1000 deaths in a single day, it's pretty likely that this happened on the 8th, deaths in England are now up to 855 for the day, with the other three nations it is likely to be near or over 1000 for the day. Including non-hospital deaths it was probably around 1400-1600.

    I expect Wave 1 to result in 80,000 excess deaths from March thru June, as measured by the ONS. Edit: only 50% of them are currently showing up in the hospital death figures.

    That’s about the same I think as the Hong Kong Flu of 1968, I think - but our population was a bit smaller then.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Stocky said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
    Sure - try:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium

    Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.
    Trying to embed it in this page:


    (image from David Paton)
    Thanks - these look encouraging. 8 April still looks like the peak.
    That worked. Thanks, Andy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    NickPalmer said:

    On topic, as somene who just turned 70, I think it'd be fair enough as a first approximation. Those of us who are in good health could perhaps apply for exemption from the ban, in the same way as I think (with some trepidation) that people over 70 should be asked to retake their driving test to show they're familiar with currennt regulations.

    I agree. Both my parents are over 70 and neither of them are on any medication or have any medical conditions, whereas the vast majority of people over 70 are on some sort of medication and/or have conditions. It doesn't seem fair to keep them confined for the next 12 months or whatever as part of a blanket ban. (Not trying to boast or anything, just a statement of facts).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8256513/Britain-breaches-grim-20-000-death-milestone-781-deaths-announced-UK.html

    "Britain has announced a further 813 coronavirus victims today, taking the total number of fatalities in the UK to 20,319.

    The grim milestone - which also saw the number of people testing positive for coronavirus rise by 4,913 to 148,377 - came as the coronavirus lockdown continued into its fifth weekend and the government faced calls for greater transparency over the scientific advice given to ministers on the outbreak.

    In reality, deaths in the UK from coronavirus probably topped 20,000 several days ago.

    The figure does not include deaths in care homes, which the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates could account for half of all deaths in Europe."

    To see how those deaths line up to the days in which they occurred (in England), See:
    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
    For the avoidance of doubt: 69 out of the 711 deaths declared in England today occurred in March, on dates between 11th March and 31st March.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    TimT said:



    And my guess is that, regardless of what the scientific- and evidence-based policy recommendations that come out, the older people themselves are going to be more risk averse and more conservative in their own behaviours, voluntarily. I do not see how this will adversely impact the Tory vote on its own.

    Not true, in my experience. In my bit of the Cotswolds, there's a clear dividing line around 77/78. North of that line, TimT's right: south, there's a real "if I climbed Kilimanjaro last year, why do I need to pretend I'm frail?" vibe.

    Interestingly, that line roughly coincides with:
    - Voting Remain/LibDem (ie: the Kilimanjaro climbers all voted Remain)
    - No serious recent intimation of mortality (the risk-averse have all been in hospital in the past year or two)
    - Technically being a Boomer (crudely: if you were born after the Blitz, you think you know better than the PM how to look after yourself and others)

    I'd also observe that the most prevalent form of gratuitous checking on others is by the Kilmanjaro cohort of over-60s on the over-77 cohort.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020
    Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.

    In terms of the 2017 general election, the biggest swing from 2017 to 2019 was with 50 to 59 year olds who voted only 47% Tory in 2017 compared to 49% Tory in 2019 and 40 to 49 year olds also went from a 5% Labour lead in 2017 to a 6% Tory lead in 2019. Over 70s were 69% Tory in 2017 and only 67% Tory in 2019.

    The reason May's dementia tax was more unpopular with the middle aged than the old was of course that is the middle aged who want a sizeable inheritance, once the old have died what happens to their estate is of less direct interest to them. Boris understood how unpopular it was with middle aged voters and opposed it in 2017 and did not go near any similar plans in 2019.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    @Andy_Cooke and @TimT (and anyone else), this is a link to the daily compiled data, you can add the latest data with a vlookup:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SV_NG2JENO6G6YH9rUd5rYO4T-SgvBcd1fyQBdw6Skc/edit?usp=sharing
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MaxPB said:

    @Andy_Cooke and @TimT (and anyone else), this is a link to the daily compiled data, you can add the latest data with a vlookup:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SV_NG2JENO6G6YH9rUd5rYO4T-SgvBcd1fyQBdw6Skc/edit?usp=sharing

    Thanks Max, really helpful
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Flanner said:

    TimT said:



    And my guess is that, regardless of what the scientific- and evidence-based policy recommendations that come out, the older people themselves are going to be more risk averse and more conservative in their own behaviours, voluntarily. I do not see how this will adversely impact the Tory vote on its own.

    Not true, in my experience. In my bit of the Cotswolds, there's a clear dividing line around 77/78. North of that line, TimT's right: south, there's a real "if I climbed Kilimanjaro last year, why do I need to pretend I'm frail?" vibe.

    Interestingly, that line roughly coincides with:
    - Voting Remain/LibDem (ie: the Kilimanjaro climbers all voted Remain)
    - No serious recent intimation of mortality (the risk-averse have all been in hospital in the past year or two)
    - Technically being a Boomer (crudely: if you were born after the Blitz, you think you know better than the PM how to look after yourself and others)

    I'd also observe that the most prevalent form of gratuitous checking on others is by the Kilmanjaro cohort of over-60s on the over-77 cohort.
    Very interesting. Thanks
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TimT said:

    MaxPB said:

    @Andy_Cooke and @TimT (and anyone else), this is a link to the daily compiled data, you can add the latest data with a vlookup:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SV_NG2JENO6G6YH9rUd5rYO4T-SgvBcd1fyQBdw6Skc/edit?usp=sharing

    Thanks Max, really helpful
    NP, there was a copy error and I forgot to select the columns for the 24th and 25th. You can add them back with the vlookup, shouldn't take long.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2020
    https://twitter.com/CiceroBlog/status/1254071369475727360?s=20
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1254072462482067456?s=20
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    MaxPB said:

    @Andy_Cooke and @TimT (and anyone else), this is a link to the daily compiled data, you can add the latest data with a vlookup:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SV_NG2JENO6G6YH9rUd5rYO4T-SgvBcd1fyQBdw6Skc/edit?usp=sharing

    Excellent, Max, thanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/

    Didn't Brezhnev die in 1976 and was wheeled around as a stuffed mannequin for some years after?
    I haven't heard that before. Maybe it's true.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    I just took a look at the Italian numbers for the first time for ages. Three observations:

    1. While the number of new infections continues to (broadly) trend downwards, it's come off less quickly than I would have expected. This is probably partly due to massive undercounting at the peak (56% peak postive test rate, against 4% now), and partly because lockdowns have not been as severe as (for example) China.

    2. The number of people in ICU with CV-19 has roughly halved from the peak, and the number of offficially active cases is also declining now.

    3. Some massive regions of Italy are basically CV-19 free, while Lombardy continues to see 1,000 official new cases a day. Big cities, with lots of people in apartment complexes. and dense public transport systems, are an utter nightmare.

    And for those who want to know the difference lockdowns make, look at Rome and Milan. In the former, the lockdown happened early enough to make a difference. In the latter, it came too late.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    edited April 2020
    TimT said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Mysticrose said:

    813 more UK hospital deaths

    Grim

    Not from today, though.
    Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
    The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
    https://imgur.com/D8ybVBO

    Show what is happening, to a fair degree
    This is better:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7

    By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
    Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
    Tim, here is a link to those data.
    I was working on it yesterday, so you'll need to add today's data yourself.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iGzAkLGelUHStKYxmYL-gxp_kWonYMLVY3C3qejExLU/edit?usp=sharing

    edit: Beaten to it by MaxPB I see, but if you're interested you can see my analysis too.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1254072462482067456?s=20

    Nobody cares about this story.

    It is relevant however in that the govt (Dom) was briefing that it would follow the science and that the UK needed no lessons from Italy etc.

    Then, abruptly “the science changed”.

    February was a wasted month, and Dom’s fingers are in there somewhere.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    "Government website runs out of coronavirus home testing kits within two minutes".

    2nd day in a row. Never mind the quality, feel the width. Lets just get the numbers up to try and meet a spurious target to damp down political criticism. Never mind making sure that the people who really need testing in social care homes get priority.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/24/government-website-runs-coronavirus-home-testing-kits-within/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Guernsey is ahead of the UK (much easier if you're a small island with a border that's effectively closed - all arrivals on the 10 flights a week from the UK have to self isolate for 14 days - used to be about 20 a day) - so is starting to ease the lock down.

    This is how Estate Agents are handling it:

    https://www.livingroom.gg/news/25-04-2020-government-and-livingroom-protocol

    Comments from the Chief Minister suggest that at the back of the queue are pubs and nightclubs, and the very back, travel restrictions.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    Did Spurs’ twitter team know today was the 14th anniversary of the invincibles winning the league at White Hart Lane?

    https://twitter.com/spursofficial/status/1253956914083487745?s=21

    16th anniversary! 🙈
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Flanner said:

    TimT said:



    And my guess is that, regardless of what the scientific- and evidence-based policy recommendations that come out, the older people themselves are going to be more risk averse and more conservative in their own behaviours, voluntarily. I do not see how this will adversely impact the Tory vote on its own.

    Not true, in my experience. In my bit of the Cotswolds, there's a clear dividing line around 77/78. North of that line, TimT's right: south, there's a real "if I climbed Kilimanjaro last year, why do I need to pretend I'm frail?" vibe.

    Interestingly, that line roughly coincides with:
    - Voting Remain/LibDem (ie: the Kilimanjaro climbers all voted Remain)
    - No serious recent intimation of mortality (the risk-averse have all been in hospital in the past year or two)
    - Technically being a Boomer (crudely: if you were born after the Blitz, you think you know better than the PM how to look after yourself and others)

    I'd also observe that the most prevalent form of gratuitous checking on others is by the Kilmanjaro cohort of over-60s on the over-77 cohort.
    Let's remember these are people who lived through much more serious epidemics in 1957 and 1968. The 1968 flu epidemic killed 80,000 in the UK and the 1957 epidemic 33,000.

    https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/history-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-uk-in-recent-times/
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