If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
I liked the good Doctor - does the Korean version go by the same title?
Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?
I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.
We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.
This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.
Yes of course that would be great! But its not going to happen regardless of what we want to happen, so we need a strategy for dealing with less Western co-operation, more nationalism, isolationism and trade tensions than we have seen for the last 25-30 years.
China and Russia will have long term plans on how to benefit from this period whilst our politicians will lurch from incident to incident with no coherent plan beyond appearing popular in the press.
Russia is facing one of the starkest strategic dilemmas of all, and may need to reorient its foreign policy towards Western integration.
You could quite possibly see a US-Russia alliance vs Western Europe emerge if Trump wins again.
This football challenge, it is a lot easier to include players from 70s and 80s as many only played for 2-3 teams across their entire careers.
With the modern ones, not only move around more, but check they didn't turn out for a load of clubs on loan like harry kane (obv not saying he would get near it) did as a youngster.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
I liked the good Doctor - does the Korean version go by the same title?
This is actually one of the issues he talks about. One thing that's complicated is that the problem of people being unable to access healthcare is, in different respects, both exacerbated but also relieved by lockdown.
Without lockdown you've got overcrowded hospitals and no capacity for other procedures. In fact until and unless lockdown manages to reduces cases to a manageable number, there'll still be the problem of eg vulnerable people not being able to go to hospital for fear of nosocomial infection, and things like chemotherapy/organ transplant being extremely dangerous due to their effect on the immune system. I don't think it's as simple as saying "if we had abolished lockdown, all this other health care would have been able to continue as normal".
But on the other hand, and Ferguson admits this in the interview, lockdown does produce serious health harms. It's a tricky one, frankly.
Yeah, I'm probably being unfair to the modellers, or at any rate some of them. I think when I wrote my previous remarks that my mood was being partially influenced by reading a piece about how disappointing the decline in hospitalisations was being viewed as by some medical personnages, with one venturing so far as to suggest that he thought that lockdown needed to continue as is for months. If it goes on like this until the Autumn then most of the economic damage will probably end up being permanent, the country will be seriously impoverished, and then what happens to the state of healthcare - let alone to the well being of the many millions of workers languishing on the scrapheap, who what's left of the state will struggle to keep from starvation?
I think my general point is that death and disaster can't be avoided, but its extent is still to be determined - and that determination has to be made in an holistic fashion. If this is just left to the medics then they'll try to keep things as they are until a vaccine is available - except that there may never be a vaccine, and even if there is societal collapse would probably occur before it became available.
The Death of Stalin was a hilarious movie of the panic and murderous jockeying for power after the death of a tyrant. So future movie makers may get good material out of things if they take a dark turn for Mr Kim, even if those in the short term won't.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
I liked the good Doctor - does the Korean version go by the same title?
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of low tax and high spend in 2019, May lost her majority in 2017 on a manifesto of high tax and low spend in 2017. Like it or not that is the mandate the voters gave the Tories and Boris.
As I said before the LDs are the most fiscally conservative party at the moment
As Martin Fry said before, "that was then but this is now".
Simply parroting the mantra of events from what now seem an eternity ago butters no parsnips with me. Obviously, the Government is the victim of circumstances which were (supposedly) unforeseeable back last December.
The "mandate" you cling to no longer exists or applies as the world has changed. I've asked you how you think a Conservative Government would or should respond to the new challenges provided by covid-19 and your response, to paraphrase Claudia and Tess is "keep borrowing".
That would make the Conservatives one of two high spending social democratic parties - why should we vote for them rather than Labour next time?
As the Tories also will keep taxes low.
As I said if you don't like it vote LD, as pursuing austerity worked out so well for them last time!
Yep, I thought that when the rumours appeared earlier this week and no footage appeared to contradict it. Nothing has changed that opinion.
He might not be dead. He might just be resting?
Perhaps he's shagged out after a long squawk and is pining for the fjords - lovely plumage, the North Korean Blue.
'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This despot is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-DESPOT!!
Self consciously, it appears from the YouGov chart above that this lefty free-range organic octogenarian is unrepresentative. I do apologise for my age group.
This football challenge, it is a lot easier to include players from 70s and 80s as many only played for 2-3 teams across their entire careers.
With the modern ones, not only move around more, but check they didn't turn out for a load of clubs on loan like harry kane (obv not saying he would get near it) did as a youngster.
Norwich City was surely the highlight off Kane's career to date!
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
I liked the good Doctor - does the Korean version go by the same title?
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Yep, I thought that when the rumours appeared earlier this week and no footage appeared to contradict it. Nothing has changed that opinion.
If he has succumbed to the Covid-19 virus, then whoever is running the country in his absence daren't admit he has been ill with it. Because if the Glorious Leader should make a miraculous recovery (if only via one of his numerous body doubles), then admitting the country had the virus will result in them being executed by anti-aircraft gun...
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Income tax rises would only further dampen the economy; taxing wealth is surely the way to go. Plus a windfall tax on on-line companies.
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there at the top of the death count by the end of the year.
I doubt it, average life expectancy in Brazil is mid 70s, it is countries like Spain and Italy and Belgium with life expectancy over 80 who are top of the deaths per head chart.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
I liked the good Doctor - does the Korean version go by the same title?
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
Seems like they have a perfect combination of Brazilian trump in charge, highly religious, areas of extremely high population density and widespread poverty.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
I liked the good Doctor - does the Korean version go by the same title?
Yes. The Korean was the original.
Which is the Freddie Highmoor version?
The US one. He is very good in the lead role.
He is indeed. That one seems to have quite a bit of S. Korean involvement in the credits, hence my question. Will look out for the other version once I have finished with Babylon Berlin. Don't watch much TV normally so I've got quite a range of good material to have a look at whilst we're incarcerated!
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
Methinks I see a Black Wednesday style humiliation on the horizon.
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
In numbers probably, by rate it will take some going to beat Ecuador. I suspect that in the long run the hardest hit countries will be the poorest in Africa, assuming anyone even bothers to count.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
In numbers probably, by rate it will take some going to beat Ecuador. I suspect that in the long run the hardest hit countries will be the poorest in Africa, assuming anyone even bothers to count.
Not at all, the death rate in Nigeria is just 0.6 per million compared to a Global average of 26 per million as life expectancy in Nigeria is only mid 50s and it has very few over 80s
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
In numbers probably, by rate it will take some going to beat Ecuador. I suspect that in the long run the hardest hit countries will be the poorest in Africa, assuming anyone even bothers to count.
Not at all, the death rate in Nigeria is just 0.6 per million compared to a Global average of 26 per million as life expectancy in Nigeria is only mid 50s and it has very few over 80s
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
Methinks I see a Black Wednesday style humiliation on the horizon.
Far from it, thankfully we are not only now out of the ERM but we never joined the Euro either
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
So 10 years ago the Tories were telling us we had to cut public services to get the deficit down and now they're saying the deficit doesn't matter?
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
Methinks I see a Black Wednesday style humiliation on the horizon.
Far from it, thankfully we are not only now out of the ERM but we never joined the Euro either
And that makes us immune from the financial markets?
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
In numbers probably, by rate it will take some going to beat Ecuador. I suspect that in the long run the hardest hit countries will be the poorest in Africa, assuming anyone even bothers to count.
Not at all, the death rate in Nigeria is just 0.6 per million compared to a Global average of 26 per million as life expectancy in Nigeria is only mid 50s and it has very few over 80s
Some of the data on that site is laughable. Officially there are 576 deaths in Ecuador, but there was an article a few days ago about there being 5,700 excess deaths in one province of 3 million or so people in a fortnight, probably the worst death rate in the world until we find out what happened in Iran. The New York Times looking at reports thinks the real figure for Ecuador should be about 15 times higher than the official figures.
The poorest places in the world will fail to accurately count the deaths COVID-19 causes.
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
Methinks I see a Black Wednesday style humiliation on the horizon.
Far from it, thankfully we are not only now out of the ERM but we never joined the Euro either
And that makes us immune from the financial markets?
With tax cuts keeping the economy growing and fantastic new trade deals outside the EU nothing to fear, deficits will be the order of the day globally anyway for years with a few exceptions like maybe Germany
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
So 10 years ago the Tories were telling us we had to cut public services to get the deficit down and now they're saying the deficit doesn't matter?
When Cameron and Osborne lost the 2016 referendum austerity went with them, May's disastrous 2017 campaign with the 'no magic money tree' formula leading to her replacement by the populist Boris just put the final nails in its coffin
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
In numbers probably, by rate it will take some going to beat Ecuador. I suspect that in the long run the hardest hit countries will be the poorest in Africa, assuming anyone even bothers to count.
Not at all, the death rate in Nigeria is just 0.6 per million compared to a Global average of 26 per million as life expectancy in Nigeria is only mid 50s and it has very few over 80s
Some of the data on that site is laughable. Officially there are 576 deaths in Ecuador, but there was an article a few days ago about there being 5,700 excess deaths in one province of 3 million or so people in a fortnight, probably the worst death rate in the world until we find out what happened in Iran. The New York Times looking at reports thinks the real figure for Ecuador should be about 15 times higher than the official figures.
The poorest places in the world will fail to accurately count the deaths COVID-19 causes.
Every piece of data on Covid shows over 80s have by far the highest death rate and that is absolute and not related to life expectancy in each country.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Yes, that much is obvious. Brazil and Nigeria are in earlier phases of the curve. That is all.
Nope, neither will even be in the top 5 nations on deaths per head, Nigeria will almost certainly not even be in the top 10.
As I have said time and time again Covid is a rich countries disease, developing nations with few over 80s have a relatively low death rate from it
Its relatively low in developed countries because 40-60 year olds can get access to oxygen / CPAP masks which seems quite effective and stand some chance on a ventilator.
In much of the developing world, if you are in that not insignificant bracket that gets it bad, you aren't going to be getting any of the above.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Percentage wise there are far fewer over 70s in Brazil than in Italy
OK older population is going to be one factor, maybe even the biggest factor in many cases, but current differences in death rates are certainly not "almost entirely" dependent on how many over 70s and over 80s there are in each country. Even a brief glance at the figures will tell you that.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Yes, that much is obvious. Brazil and Nigeria are in earlier phases of the curve. That is all.
Nope, neither will even be in the top 5 nations on deaths per head, Nigeria will almost certainly not even be in the top 10.
As I have said time and time again Covid is a rich countries disease, developing nations with few over 80s have a relatively low death rate from it
But why have you said it "time and time again" with this plonking overcertainty, in the very early stage of the disease? It might be right, of course, but we just can't tell. One point which seems to have escaped you is that longevity correlates with first world status correlates with the ability to produce reliable data, whereas with somewhere like Nigeria or India we will probably never know what the death count was even to the right order of magnitude. So even if the figures "prove" you right, you won't necessarily be right. On top of that there is the very real possibility that a lower CV headcount will still lead to greater loss of life from the collapse of what very little there is in the way of an economy and a healthcare system in these countries. No one should be as certain about anything, as you are about everything.
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
Methinks I see a Black Wednesday style humiliation on the horizon.
Far from it, thankfully we are not only now out of the ERM but we never joined the Euro either
And that makes us immune from the financial markets?
With tax cuts keeping the economy growing and fantastic new trade deals outside the EU nothing to fear, deficits will be the order of the day globally anyway for years with a few exceptions like maybe Germany
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Yes - but in reverse order. This time the broadest shoulders WILL have to bear the load. There's no way it can be otherwise. Not again.
More ugly numbers from Brazil today. Have the feeling they'll be up there near the top of the death count by the end of the year.
In numbers probably, by rate it will take some going to beat Ecuador. I suspect that in the long run the hardest hit countries will be the poorest in Africa, assuming anyone even bothers to count.
Not at all, the death rate in Nigeria is just 0.6 per million compared to a Global average of 26 per million as life expectancy in Nigeria is only mid 50s and it has very few over 80s
Some of the data on that site is laughable. Officially there are 576 deaths in Ecuador, but there was an article a few days ago about there being 5,700 excess deaths in one province of 3 million or so people in a fortnight, probably the worst death rate in the world until we find out what happened in Iran. The New York Times looking at reports thinks the real figure for Ecuador should be about 15 times higher than the official figures.
The poorest places in the world will fail to accurately count the deaths COVID-19 causes.
Every piece of data on Covid shows over 80s have by far the highest death rate and that is absolute and not related to life expectancy in each country.
Because countries with higher life expectancies also have better data gathering. You are probably misinterpreting an artefact as an actual thing.
Isn't the tax burden already the highest it's been since the Seventies? Or something like that, anyway?
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Boris ain't doing that, there will be no tax rises under Boris of any significance.
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
So 10 years ago the Tories were telling us we had to cut public services to get the deficit down and now they're saying the deficit doesn't matter?
That transformation had occurred prior to coronavirus. Albeit, in fairness, after it had been significantly reduced.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Yes, that much is obvious. Brazil and Nigeria are in earlier phases of the curve. That is all.
Nope, neither will even be in the top 5 nations on deaths per head, Nigeria will almost certainly not even be in the top 10.
As I have said time and time again Covid is a rich countries disease, developing nations with few over 80s have a relatively low death rate from it
Life expectancy is a function largely of infant mortality. It is facile to compare it with life expectancy as an adult.
Nigeria has lots of older people, and is the most populous country in sub saharan Africa by quite some margin. Brazil has transformed in terms of population structure in a couple of generations in a way that took two centuries in Europe.
In absolute numbers both will have formidable mortality.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
Nurses will need above inflation pay rises - so it's either triple lock or printing money.
Why will they need above inflation pay rises. Money will be needed for unemployment benefit , nurses and other public service jobs will be the gold standard without pay rises. No zero hours contracts for them.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
That might be, but the point is all the medic report just how many younger people they get in and that it is wrong to categorise this as simply an oldies disease. The difference is 80 year olds and ventaliators aren't really a goer, 40 year olds stand some chance.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
The middle aged didnt go to hospital just for fun you know....
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
Yes, but also the decline in the middle aged is both more slow and more reversible with supportive measures. Even with aggressive hospital treatment survival of the older age groups is grim.
I know a couple of 20 something HCWs who look to have survived, but can barely walk 100 yards without getting breathless. Those who get it badly may survive at young ages, but that does not make it a minor illness.
It is quite inexplicably idiosyncratic in its severity. Like some random dice thrown by the gods.
Oh it's not sarcasm now? Those red-hatted nutters have to switch realities again.
Besides that, even if Trump was speaking to someone else, and there was a man sitting near Birx, it doesn't change that fact the Trump was seriously suggesting some insane nonsense.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
The recent Korean legal drama Hyenas is also very entertaining. (Netflix)
The source said: 'Jonathan and the team have been working up to 20-hour days, seven days a week – literally around the clock. There is a huge determination to achieve this as quickly as is humanly possible.
Media question will be...what were you doing the other 4hrs of the day?
I hope Big Dom wasn't anywhere near the planning meetings for this antibody testing consortium (it was brought together by #10 apparently)...certain sections of the media will have a total and utter meltdown.
How good are average UK adults at assessing how well the government of each of those countries has coped with the pandemic?
Probably not very well, but also probably not well at assessing how well this government is coping. But in terms of measuring general perceptions it is not that surprising - Germany has widely been reported to be doing better, and their numbers look better, and ours generally look comparable to other big european nations, so naturally the default would be we are doing similarly well or badly.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
The recent Korean legal drama Hyenas is also very entertaining. (Netflix)
I watched Train to Busan the other night. An exceptionally good zombie film, with a pacy story and engaging characterisation.
South Korea really is a country whose time has come. I hope North Korea can reunify peacefully with it when the despicable regime collapses.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
Yes, but also the decline in the middle aged is both more slow and more reversible with supportive measures. Even with aggressive hospital treatment survival of the older age groups is grim.
I know a couple of 20 something HCWs who look to have survived, but can barely walk 100 yards without getting breathless. Those who get it badly may survive at young ages, but that does not make it a minor illness.
It is quite inexplicably idiosyncratic in its severity. Like some random dice thrown by the gods.
Do you think HCWs have a poorer prognosis than other similiar members of the public due to the increased potential risk of getting a whoppingly huge initial dose of the virus compared to someone who say acquires it through touch infection ?
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Sweden breaks down diagnosis age groups on their arcgis page
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
How good are average UK adults at assessing how well the government of each of those countries has coped with the pandemic?
If you look at the raw national death figures to date, they map onto these pretty well. Germany has definitely done better, the UK government stats showed similar death rates to France for a while (until it was acknowledged that they were handling the hospital / non-hospital distinction differently), the figures for Italy and Spain are known to be grim and everyone knows that the USA is the USA.
What gets missed is that countries are at different stages in their outbreaks and it's really not easy to do comparisons until the outbreaks are over everywhere. If you take the graphs at https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest (other analyses are available), the UK outbreak started about 2 weeks after Italy's and a week after France and Spain. That makes like-for-like in real time hard to do well.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
Yes, but also the decline in the middle aged is both more slow and more reversible with supportive measures. Even with aggressive hospital treatment survival of the older age groups is grim.
I know a couple of 20 something HCWs who look to have survived, but can barely walk 100 yards without getting breathless. Those who get it badly may survive at young ages, but that does not make it a minor illness.
It is quite inexplicably idiosyncratic in its severity. Like some random dice thrown by the gods.
Do you think HCWs have a poorer prognosis than other similiar members of the public due to the increased potential risk of getting a whoppingly huge initial dose of the virus compared to someone who say acquires it through touch infection ?
I am not convinced that viral dose matters. All the badly affected HCW that I know were on non covid wards. I think it simply that they are more likely to catch it than their peers, and some get it badly.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Sweden breaks down diagnosis age groups on their arcgis page
My hunch is that Sweden will be proved right and everywhere else proved wrong, but we'll see.
If so, and notwithstanding questions that would still need be asked of our own governmental response to do otherwise, I hope that the decision is seen in the context of what near everyone else was doing. But I do not think it will.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
Comments
With the modern ones, not only move around more, but check they didn't turn out for a load of clubs on loan like harry kane (obv not saying he would get near it) did as a youngster.
Give over.
I think my general point is that death and disaster can't be avoided, but its extent is still to be determined - and that determination has to be made in an holistic fashion. If this is just left to the medics then they'll try to keep things as they are until a vaccine is available - except that there may never be a vaccine, and even if there is societal collapse would probably occur before it became available.
I like to be different so it was either Juusi or that Colombian who did the scorpion kick.
EDIT: I could have Jan Oblak, he’s quite good.
As I said if you don't like it vote LD, as pursuing austerity worked out so well for them last time!
Golly.
Regardless, it's only going upwards from here. Someone has to pay to clean up this mess, and the state can't keep borrowing forever. At some point the gilt market is going to start expecting a better yield in exchange for the risk of being repaid in a debased currency, and then what do we do?
Most likely, stick up income tax until working age people can't take anymore and then, when there's absolutely nowhere else left to go, scrap the pension triple lock and execute a major raid on property wealth. All that money has to come from somewhere.
Only excludes Spartan and USSR.
Tough call.
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
Boris is firmly a believer in the Dick Cheney mantra that 'deficits don't matter' and will borrow and borrow and borrow again rather than put up tax or cut spending.
'Cake for all' Berlusconi style is the Boris philosophy
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8229497/Countries-older-populations-likely-hit-hardest-coronavirus.html
Global average of 26 per million as life expectancy in Nigeria is only mid 50s and it has very few over 80s
As I have said time and time again Covid is a rich countries disease, developing nations with few over 80s have a relatively low death rate from it
The poorest places in the world will fail to accurately count the deaths COVID-19 causes.
In much of the developing world, if you are in that not insignificant bracket that gets it bad, you aren't going to be getting any of the above.
You are truly living in cloud cuckoo land!
Nigeria has lots of older people, and is the most populous country in sub saharan Africa by quite some margin. Brazil has transformed in terms of population structure in a couple of generations in a way that took two centuries in Europe.
In absolute numbers both will have formidable mortality.
Oh wait...hold on...its been developed by that 2nd rate institution...they will probably be crap then ;-)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8257233/Government-orders-50million-game-changing-immunity-tests.html
A reliable antibody test must mean a vaccine is closer perhaps too...
Once this thing goes away the twenties are going to be roaring.
I know a couple of 20 something HCWs who look to have survived, but can barely walk 100 yards without getting breathless. Those who get it badly may survive at young ages, but that does not make it a minor illness.
It is quite inexplicably idiosyncratic in its severity. Like some random dice thrown by the gods.
Besides that, even if Trump was speaking to someone else, and there was a man sitting near Birx, it doesn't change that fact the Trump was seriously suggesting some insane nonsense.
Dan Hannan, Toby Young
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1254156945658912768?s=21
Stay home and stay safe comrades.
Bella ciao
Media question will be...what were you doing the other 4hrs of the day?
South Korea really is a country whose time has come. I hope North Korea can reunify peacefully with it when the despicable regime collapses.
https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1254151460771823619?s=21
"How did “flattening the curve” morph into “avoiding a second peak”? "
That is a bloody good question.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
As you. Say it is 50-59 who is the largest group of covid positive. However 50-59 barely even tickles the scorers when it comes to deaths.
The interesting/weird thing to me is the female/male split for diagnosis, intensive care and deaths
9940/8237 female/male diagnose
333/947 female/male in intensive care
956/1236 female/male dead
Cutting spending in the face of a depression is Hoover economics.
What gets missed is that countries are at different stages in their outbreaks and it's really not easy to do comparisons until the outbreaks are over everywhere. If you take the graphs at https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest (other analyses are available), the UK outbreak started about 2 weeks after Italy's and a week after France and Spain. That makes like-for-like in real time hard to do well.