Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.
We are all going to have to deal with social distancing for a lengthy period even when restrictions are eased. Part of it will be instruction from above and part will be residual fear and anxiety.
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
I think that Priti Patel managed to get all the numbers right this time. It's a start.
Just about managed to keep her temper, too. N. London/S. Hertfordshire word endings in plenty, too particularly as the Cons. went on. But who in Gods name writes this stuff for them? Can they not use manage to use to 75% fewer words, or at least cut out the platitudes and slogans. Patel put her shoulder to the wheel..... or all our shoulders to the wheel twice and I think three times.
I just took a look at the Italian numbers for the first time for ages. Three observations:
1. While the number of new infections continues to (broadly) trend downwards, it's come off less quickly than I would have expected. This is probably partly due to massive undercounting at the peak (56% peak postive test rate, against 4% now), and partly because lockdowns have not been as severe as (for example) China.
2. The number of people in ICU with CV-19 has roughly halved from the peak, and the number of offficially active cases is also declining now.
3. Some massive regions of Italy are basically CV-19 free, while Lombardy continues to see 1,000 official new cases a day. Big cities, with lots of people in apartment complexes. and dense public transport systems, are an utter nightmare.
And for those who want to know the difference lockdowns make, look at Rome and Milan. In the former, the lockdown happened early enough to make a difference. In the latter, it came too late.
I'd be interested in your analysis of the Spanish situation.
And my guess is that, regardless of what the scientific- and evidence-based policy recommendations that come out, the older people themselves are going to be more risk averse and more conservative in their own behaviours, voluntarily. I do not see how this will adversely impact the Tory vote on its own.
Not true, in my experience. In my bit of the Cotswolds, there's a clear dividing line around 77/78. North of that line, TimT's right: south, there's a real "if I climbed Kilimanjaro last year, why do I need to pretend I'm frail?" vibe.
Interestingly, that line roughly coincides with: - Voting Remain/LibDem (ie: the Kilimanjaro climbers all voted Remain) - No serious recent intimation of mortality (the risk-averse have all been in hospital in the past year or two) - Technically being a Boomer (crudely: if you were born after the Blitz, you think you know better than the PM how to look after yourself and others)
I'd also observe that the most prevalent form of gratuitous checking on others is by the Kilmanjaro cohort of over-60s on the over-77 cohort.
Let's remember these are people who lived through much more serious epidemics in 1957 and 1968. The 1968 flu epidemic killed 80,000 in the UK and the 1957 epidemic 33,000.
Population density will of course impact the spread of the virus but unless that results in a cluster which overwhelms an areas health system then it shouldn’t impact clinical outcomes .
The NHS seems to have coped well but why so many deaths per 1 million of population .
It’s not about quality of care the NHS will be delivering on that front . It’s likely to be because of late hospitalizations, people are leaving it too late to get help .
This probably isn’t helped by the advice , if your condition worsens you are asked to call 111 not an ambulance .
In Germany mobile units go round checking daily on those with Covid 19 who are ill and check blood oxygen etc , this means people are quickly admitted to hospital if their condition worsens , in France you are asked to call an ambulance if your condition worsens not an advice line .
Both of these countries have less hospital deaths than the UK . Germany around a quarter of UK hospital deaths and France has around 6,500 less before today’s update .
Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.
We are all going to have to deal with social distancing for a lengthy period even when restrictions are eased. Part of it will be instruction from above and part will be residual fear and anxiety.
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Not from today, though. Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March. The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.
Trying to embed it in this page:
(image from David Paton)
Thanks - these look encouraging. 8 April still looks like the peak.
Not to me. The deaths reported today that occured in the 7 days to 25th April are 32 more than the deaths reported yesterday that occured in the 7 days to 24th April. So the increase today is largely due to current data, not to late reporting of deaths from weeks back.
Population density will of course impact the spread of the virus but unless that results in a cluster which overwhelms an areas health system then it shouldn’t impact clinical outcomes .
The NHS seems to have coped well but why so many deaths per 1 million of population .
It’s not about quality of care the NHS will be delivering on that front . It’s likely to be because of late hospitalizations, people are leaving it too late to get help .
This probably isn’t helped by the advice , if your condition worsens you are asked to call 111 not an ambulance .
In Germany mobile units go round checking daily on those with Covid 19 who are ill and check blood oxygen etc , this means people are quickly admitted to hospital if their condition worsens , in France you are asked to call an ambulance if your condition worsens not an advice line .
Both of these countries have less hospital deaths than the UK . Germany around a quarter of UK hospital deaths and France has around 6,500 less before today’s update .
Yes, I think it not just non Covid-19 patients presenting late. Test early, isolate and monitor. Test and trace contacts.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.
We are all going to have to deal with social distancing for a lengthy period even when restrictions are eased. Part of it will be instruction from above and part will be residual fear and anxiety.
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
The U3a is giving some thought to that; one matter of concern is those over 70's who have no experience of, and are therefore 'not interested in' the internet. I'm not sure how get laptops and connections to all of those, ro keep them in contact. It's not too bad for my friends; we just set up a Zoom, or similar, meeting and off we go. However, I agree with Mr S, and as someone who has a close relative recently advised of the onset of dementia, I wonder how he's going to cope.
I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
Generally the government is doing OK, middle of the pack as far as I can see.
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
When I see Little Rocket man, for some reason I think of Elvis.....just imagine he is there eating burger after burger, because nobody will draw tell him to stop.
When I see Little Rocket man, for some reason I think of Elvis.....just imagine he is there eating burger after burger, because nobody will draw tell him to stop.
One of the reasons I loved Rocketman the film was when I saw it at the cinema, Godzilla: King of the Monsters was on the same time, and during several moments during Rocketman the sound of Godzilla bled through from the next screen.
“ Investigations are open in Sweden into representatives of the Syrian regime who are now in the Nordic country, with possible war crimes and crimes against humanity being looked into, a prosecutor told Swedish Radio.”
I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
Generally the government is doing OK, middle of the pack as far as I can see.
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
I just took a look at the Italian numbers for the first time for ages. Three observations:
1. While the number of new infections continues to (broadly) trend downwards, it's come off less quickly than I would have expected. This is probably partly due to massive undercounting at the peak (56% peak postive test rate, against 4% now), and partly because lockdowns have not been as severe as (for example) China.
2. The number of people in ICU with CV-19 has roughly halved from the peak, and the number of offficially active cases is also declining now.
3. Some massive regions of Italy are basically CV-19 free, while Lombardy continues to see 1,000 official new cases a day. Big cities, with lots of people in apartment complexes. and dense public transport systems, are an utter nightmare.
And for those who want to know the difference lockdowns make, look at Rome and Milan. In the former, the lockdown happened early enough to make a difference. In the latter, it came too late.
One thing that is very clear is that once the virus is in a confined environment - whether it be a cruise ship, a care home, or a family house (or indeed over a shorter timescale an aeroplane) it is very difficult to stop it spreading. Milan’s lockdown surely left hundreds of carriers locked away to share the virus with the rest of their household.
Talking to my mother, who isn’t going out but is still interacting with the other flat owners in her semi-sheltered block, it occurs to me that the type of small block (six to ten flats) apartments that are common in Italy and Spain may be a big part of their problem; behind the security of their gate the residents of each block may feel relaxed about interacting with each other. Which is fine until one of them is a carrier.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.
And that's before he refuses to leave the WH if he loses, and whips his armed base into a killing frenzy.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.
The US has a lower pandemic death toll per head than France, Italy, Spain and Belgium and us and is testing more per head than we and the French are too
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.
But at near zero interest rates, investment in infrastructure isn’t the problem, and won’t help balance the current account. Spending cuts are exhausted as a way out, hence it must be some combination of inflation and extra taxes.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.
The US has a lower pandemic death toll per head than France, Italy, Spain and Belgium and us and is testing more per head than we and the French are too
I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
Generally the government is doing OK, middle of the pack as far as I can see.
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
China is the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter and 'according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 20% since the Kyoto Protocol. The Asia Pacific region saw carbon dioxide emissions increase by 50% since 2005, while emissions in the U.S. and EU declined.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d04
I think that Priti Patel managed to get all the numbers right this time. It's a start.
Just about managed to keep her temper, too. N. London/S. Hertfordshire word endings in plenty, too particularly as the Cons. went on. But who in Gods name writes this stuff for them? Can they not use manage to use to 75% fewer words, or at least cut out the platitudes and slogans. Patel put her shoulder to the wheel..... or all our shoulders to the wheel twice and I think three times.
Also boasting that shoplifting is down when almost all shops are closed is pathetic, Tories struggling for positivity. Next it will be no fights in pubs.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
China is the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter and 'according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 20% since the Kyoto Protocol. The Asia Pacific region saw carbon dioxide emissions increase by 50% since 2005, while emissions in the U.S. and EU declined.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d04
It has a quarter of the worlds population so it is not surprising it emits the most carbon dioxide. On a per capita basis its not far from european countries, the worst offending big countries are USA and Russia.
Not from today, though. Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March. The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.
Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.
Trying to embed it in this page:
(image from David Paton)
Thanks - these look encouraging. 8 April still looks like the peak.
Not to me. The deaths reported today that occured in the 7 days to 25th April are 32 more than the deaths reported yesterday that occured in the 7 days to 24th April. So the increase today is largely due to current data, not to late reporting of deaths from weeks back.
Despite the increase in earlier days being larger than 32? That doesn't make sense.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
Elections are not won by future generations
You probably didn’t mean it, but you have hit a nail on the head. Democracy is flawed when a blocking vote of people who no longer participate in the labour market can protect their own position while letting the economy for the next generation go hang.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clinton
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
China is the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter and 'according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 20% since the Kyoto Protocol. The Asia Pacific region saw carbon dioxide emissions increase by 50% since 2005, while emissions in the U.S. and EU declined.' https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d04
Will that picture change, once "globalisation is dead" and those coveted manufacturing jobs have been "brought home"?
Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock. Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.
"Never in a month of Sundays" used to be said about something extremely unlikely, and we've just had a month of Sundays around here. Sundays, bloody Sundays eh?
Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock. Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.
Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock. Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.
It was a great policy when it came in as pensioners were amongst the poorest in society at the time. Now they are amongst the richest it is bonkers and only remains because of their bloc voting power.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
If the alternative is to impose massive wealth taxes - especially a big increase in taxing the process that, er, transfers wealth to future generations - then I have no problem with it whatsoever. Bring on the debt, then (as I think will be inevitable if the economic consequences of CV unfold as expected), write it off one way or another.
Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
If the alternative is to impose massive wealth taxes - especially a big increase in taxing the process that, er, transfers wealth to future generations - then I have no problem with it whatsoever. Bring on the debt, then (as I think will be inevitable if the economic consequences of CV unfold as expected), write it off one way or another.
Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.
The average age those lucky enough to inherit do so is 61. Hardly passing on to the working generations!
So on the other hand you give them some help with an unaffordable level of Inheritance Tax while at the same time bequeathing them an enormous level of debt which will require servicing let alone reduction so future generations will have to spend the national wealth on servicing the debt we have created for them.
So much for the Conservative Party's reputation for sound fiscal management and sensible economics. At the next GE we'll be faced with a choice of two high-spending social democratic parties.
On that basis, the only rationale for voting Conservative is they will be better at managing high levels of public borrowing and debt than Labour.
Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock. Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.
It was a great policy when it came in as pensioners were amongst the poorest in society at the time. Now they are amongst the richest it is bonkers and only remains because of their bloc voting power.
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
Nurses will need above inflation pay rises - so it's either triple lock or printing money.
Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ? I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated. I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
Nurses will need above inflation pay rises - so it's either triple lock or printing money.
For the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
Indeed, and they should turn up as an "above covid levels" of rise in Swedish deaths but overall daily death figure they produce doesn't show an anomalous rise.
Which is why I am keen to see if they turn up in the latest revision.
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
Sometimes the dice don't fall your way and you have to make a decision which while the right decision is going to be very unpopular especially with your core voting constituency.
The serious politician will take that decision and accept the storm.
Johnson isn't in that category - he's never lost an election and I don't think he will take well to being unpopular, to being booed rather than cheered and heckled rather than applauded. He enjoys indeed revels in being liked and if he starts facing real hostility from the electorate we'll see what kind of Prime Minister he really is.
Also the freddie sayers guy is a decent interviewer. Seems reasonably well informed, asks sensible questions and most importantly lets the people answer.
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
Sometimes the dice don't fall your way and you have to make a decision which while the right decision is going to be very unpopular especially with your core voting constituency.
The serious politician will take that decision and accept the storm.
Johnson isn't in that category - he's never lost an election and I don't think he will take well to being unpopular, to being booed rather than cheered and heckled rather than applauded. He enjoys indeed revels in being liked and if he starts facing real hostility from the electorate we'll see what kind of Prime Minister he really is.
A former Prime Minister would be an appropriate sort.
Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ? I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated. I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.
Yes, I'm of a similar mind. I can work at home and my employers seem quite comfortable to let me continue to do so. I'll be pleased to see my local Chinese takeaway open for deliveries and when the Racing Post comes back I shall venture to the local paper shop but social distancing isn't going to go away for a long time to come.
Cummings is defo a guy for campaigns. Less so for Gov't - can't he be ascribed a job to sort out the Ministry of Defence that he was going to do. Not particularly comfortable with him overseeing or whatnot SAGE - though I don't think the man on the clapham omnibus will give a monkeys about it.
Comments
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
But who in Gods name writes this stuff for them? Can they not use manage to use to 75% fewer words, or at least cut out the platitudes and slogans.
Patel put her shoulder to the wheel..... or all our shoulders to the wheel twice and I think three times.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/kim-jong-uns-sister-tyrant-21923676
The NHS seems to have coped well but why so many deaths per 1 million of population .
It’s not about quality of care the NHS will be delivering on that front . It’s likely to be because of late hospitalizations, people are leaving it too late to get help .
This probably isn’t helped by the advice , if your condition worsens you are asked to call 111 not an ambulance .
In Germany mobile units go round checking daily on those with Covid 19 who are ill and check blood oxygen etc , this means people are quickly admitted to hospital if their condition worsens , in France you are asked to call an ambulance if your condition worsens not an advice line .
Both of these countries have less hospital deaths than the UK . Germany around a quarter of UK hospital deaths and France has around 6,500 less before today’s update .
Time to watch "The Death of Stalin" again.....
There are a lot of lessons to be learned.
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
It's not too bad for my friends; we just set up a Zoom, or similar, meeting and off we go.
However, I agree with Mr S, and as someone who has a close relative recently advised of the onset of dementia, I wonder how he's going to cope.
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Swedish nursing homes are not consistent in their testing/reporting of covid deaths. Stockholm test and report more than other counties
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7453417
Interesting website
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7453417
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7459084
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.
Talking to my mother, who isn’t going out but is still interacting with the other flat owners in her semi-sheltered block, it occurs to me that the type of small block (six to ten flats) apartments that are common in Italy and Spain may be a big part of their problem; behind the security of their gate the residents of each block may feel relaxed about interacting with each other. Which is fine until one of them is a carrier.
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
If anything is going to be cut then yes HS2 may go, it is not that popular and was Osborne's pet project not Boris'
There wont be cuts. We'll have to inflate our way out would be my guess.
2) Is China really looking for another way of pissing off the ROTW?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d04
Better broadband, new motorways, a new airport? Maybe.
Inflation and extra taxes both hit future growth.
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1254089093610340352?s=20
“Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”
Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.
So for me it's fingers toes and anything you care to mention crossed for Nov 3rd.
The thing I had found amazing last I had checked was the entirety of their excess mortality over the 5 year average was covered by covid 19 deaths.
Which suggested zero hidden care home deaths or the like.
Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7454445
So much for the Conservative Party's reputation for sound fiscal management and sensible economics. At the next GE we'll be faced with a choice of two high-spending social democratic parties.
On that basis, the only rationale for voting Conservative is they will be better at managing high levels of public borrowing and debt than Labour.
https://twitter.com/rickygervais/status/706465063599808512
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.
This lot are quite capable of doing both.
Which is why I am keen to see if they turn up in the latest revision.
The serious politician will take that decision and accept the storm.
Johnson isn't in that category - he's never lost an election and I don't think he will take well to being unpopular, to being booed rather than cheered and heckled rather than applauded. He enjoys indeed revels in being liked and if he starts facing real hostility from the electorate we'll see what kind of Prime Minister he really is.
Depending on who replaces him, of course.
They haven't updated their 2020 death figures from the previous week