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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating

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  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    edited April 2020

    The official government statement said that Cummings gave 'help' with 'problems in Whitehall'. Someone's not being straight with us here.

    Why?

    I doubt the problems in Whitehall were solvable while he was actually in the meeting. So, pre-armed with first-hand information, he rode shotgun for SAGE.

    Seems reasonable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    eek said:

    Socky said:

    eek said:

    Nurses will need above inflation pay rises.

    Like, definitely. Need?
    eek said:

    It's either triple lock or printing money.

    Printing money causes higher inflation - so....
    You have the idea that inflation is going to be avoidable.
    It might be, oil is definitely in deflation at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:
    He was present but not involved. Surely the Guardian appreciate the difference? :smiley:
    The official government statement said that Cummings gave 'help' with 'problems in Whitehall'. Someone's not being straight with us here.
    That'd be the Guardian.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Subtle pro-China propaganda from the BBC.

    https://twitter.com/Maxwellsnp/status/1253777198923866119
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Subtle pro-China propaganda from the BBC.

    https://twitter.com/Maxwellsnp/status/1253777198923866119

    It's the same way Sainsbury's sends me my groceries.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    Subtle pro-China propaganda from the BBC.

    https://twitter.com/Maxwellsnp/status/1253777198923866119

    On balance, taking everything into account and weighing it up, BBC Scotland would rather give credit to the regime in China than the SNP government.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    stodge said:


    I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.

    Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
    Its v expensive. I got a 3.99pc increase on.my pension. Better to ramp up fuel tax whipst prices are v low
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million

    I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?

    Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?



    It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.

    Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
    Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?
    If the alternative is to impose massive wealth taxes - especially a big increase in taxing the process that, er, transfers wealth to future generations - then I have no problem with it whatsoever. Bring on the debt, then (as I think will be inevitable if the economic consequences of CV unfold as expected), write it off one way or another.

    Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.

    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Socky said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think you’ll find that the scenario where the debt remains unaddressed by either inflation or taxes doesn’t turn out too well, either.

    Of course, so that means cuts. Where to cut is the problem.
    Trident seems a luxury. Or is that money already committed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Phillips’s appointment was also criticised by the Labour MP Naz Shah, who tweeted: “It’s an insult to the memory of the numerous Muslims who have lost their lives, and also an insult to those Muslims who continue to serve on the frontline.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/leading-muslims-hit-out-at-trevor-phillipss-role-in-covid-19-bame-deaths-inquiry
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Socky said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think you’ll find that the scenario where the debt remains unaddressed by either inflation or taxes doesn’t turn out too well, either.

    Of course, so that means cuts. Where to cut is the problem.
    Trident seems a luxury. Or is that money already committed?
    Hasn't defended us against this virus too well. MAD is ensured by the US-Russia balance of nukes anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @Alistair @Andy_Cooke

    Swedish data in English

    shorturl.at/cfG46

    Thanks, but I get:

    “Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”
    https://translate.
    This wins the prize for the longest link of all time.
    And, yes it doesn’t work.


    Click the link under ‘Ladda ner data’

    http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
  • Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Socky said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think you’ll find that the scenario where the debt remains unaddressed by either inflation or taxes doesn’t turn out too well, either.

    Of course, so that means cuts. Where to cut is the problem.
    Trident seems a luxury. Or is that money already committed?
    Hasn't defended us against this virus too well. MAD is ensured by the US-Russia balance of nukes anyway.
    As long as the French have nukes then so should we.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Phillips’s appointment was also criticised by the Labour MP Naz Shah, who tweeted: “It’s an insult to the memory of the numerous Muslims who have lost their lives, and also an insult to those Muslims who continue to serve on the frontline.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/leading-muslims-hit-out-at-trevor-phillipss-role-in-covid-19-bame-deaths-inquiry

    It might have been easier to list the muslims that weren't insulted by his appointment.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Also the freddie sayers guy is a decent interviewer. Seems reasonably well informed, asks sensible questions and most importantly lets the people answer.

    To be fair this approach depends a lot on the willingness of the interviewee to actually respond to the question ... I don't like interviewers interrupting politicians all the time, but if they don't then the pols tend just to produce evasive or point-scoring answers anyway. Ferguson on the other hand seemed very happy to get an opportunity to put his views across in a non-soundbitey way. So works both way. Was a good interview overall. For what it's worth, I think the journalists at the daily briefings need to realise that many of the questions they are asking are going to be answered by non-politicians who aren't going to be playing the normal games that politicians play. Therefore, it's better to give them a sensible non-point-scoring question that they can give a sensible answer to because it's likely they're willing to do so (as Ferguson was here).

    Another case for the journos at the briefing not to be just the political correspondents, imo.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Socky said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think you’ll find that the scenario where the debt remains unaddressed by either inflation or taxes doesn’t turn out too well, either.

    Of course, so that means cuts. Where to cut is the problem.
    Trident seems a luxury. Or is that money already committed?
    Hasn't defended us against this virus too well. MAD is ensured by the US-Russia balance of nukes anyway.
    The virus/trident is mostly flippant but not entirely. I doubt this virus is a weapon os any sort. Imagin the Chinese developed something or other that was crippling unless you had some bit of gene code specific to Han ethnicity...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pulpstar said:

    Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
    I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
    I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.

    I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
    I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
    I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.

    I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.
    You can have a massive funeral if the potential attendees are sufficiently chavtastic :

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8253341/Police-rushed-funeral-gunman-opened-fire-mourners-Manchester-cemetery.html
  • novanova Posts: 692
    RobD said:

    .

    IshmaelZ said:
    He was present but not involved. Surely the Guardian appreciate the difference? :smiley:
    Skwawkbox and The Canary will be incandescent with rage at that statement!

    The Guardian is public enemy #1 for many who believe Mr C was present but not involved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Elections are not won by future generations

    So on the other hand you give them some help with an unaffordable level of Inheritance Tax while at the same time bequeathing them an enormous level of debt which will require servicing let alone reduction so future generations will have to spend the national wealth on servicing the debt we have created for them.

    So much for the Conservative Party's reputation for sound fiscal management and sensible economics. At the next GE we'll be faced with a choice of two high-spending social democratic parties.

    On that basis, the only rationale for voting Conservative is they will be better at managing high levels of public borrowing and debt than Labour.
    The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of low tax and high spend in 2019, May lost her majority in 2017 on a manifesto of high tax and low spend in 2017. Like it or not that is the mandate the voters gave the Tories and Boris.

    As I said before the LDs are the most fiscally conservative party at the moment
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Socky said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think you’ll find that the scenario where the debt remains unaddressed by either inflation or taxes doesn’t turn out too well, either.

    Of course, so that means cuts. Where to cut is the problem.
    ... or taxes?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited April 2020
    stodge said:

    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?



    "Do you expect me to talk?"

    "No Mr Branson - we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?



    "Do you expect me to talk?"

    "No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
    We need to screw Virgin.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?



    "Do you expect me to talk?"

    "No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
    We need to screw Virgin.
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?



    "Do you expect me to talk?"

    "No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
    We need to screw Virgin.
    Branson needs to.feel.the oai .personally . I have always refused to.give him any of my money.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?



    "Do you expect me to talk?"

    "No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
    We need to screw Virgin.
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    kinabalu said:


    Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.

    I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

    Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?



    "Do you expect me to talk?"

    "No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
    We need to screw Virgin.
    Branson needs to.feel.the oai .personally . I have always refused to.give him any of my money.
    Feel the pain..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020
    Gabs3 said:

    So it looks like North Korea is going to have a female leader before the Labour Party does.

    Miaouw...

    But, then, Scotland had a female leader before Labour as well.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    @MyBurningEars

    I am still working through those conundrums you posed me last week about elites and meritocracy etc. Brain whirring away like mad on it. Leading to one or two adjustments - which is a good thing I think. ☺
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    ydoethur said:
    You wouldn't want to be that surgeon would you? The poor man will probably be launched on the end of the next missile test.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    HYUFD said:


    The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of low tax and high spend in 2019, May lost her majority in 2017 on a manifesto of high tax and low spend in 2017. Like it or not that is the mandate the voters gave the Tories and Boris.

    As I said before the LDs are the most fiscally conservative party at the moment

    As Martin Fry said before, "that was then but this is now".

    Simply parroting the mantra of events from what now seem an eternity ago butters no parsnips with me. Obviously, the Government is the victim of circumstances which were (supposedly) unforeseeable back last December.

    The "mandate" you cling to no longer exists or applies as the world has changed. I've asked you how you think a Conservative Government would or should respond to the new challenges provided by covid-19 and your response, to paraphrase Claudia and Tess is "keep borrowing".

    That would make the Conservatives one of two high spending social democratic parties - why should we vote for them rather than Labour next time?
  • I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:
    You wouldn't want to be that surgeon would you? The poor man will probably be launched on the end of the next missile test.
    Well, if the reports are accurate the reason the operation to insert a stent went wrong is that the surgeon was so terrified his hands were shaking uncontrollably.

    In which case, like Stalin, Kim Jong Un’s viciousness and drive to induce gibbering terror in everyone will have ended up actually killing him.

    Karma’s a bitch...

    But, no, I would not want to be that surgeon unless I was also shagging Kim’s sister and therefore could hope for protection.

    Of course, she might be glad to be rid of him...and reward the surgeon!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    And better dress sense than you.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    Gabs3 said:

    So it looks like North Korea is going to have a female leader before the Labour Party does.

    Miaouw...

    But, then, Scotland had a female leader before Labour as well.
    Iran probably will.......
  • Floater said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    And better dress sense than you.....
    Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Floater said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    And better dress sense than you.....
    Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.
    The two statements are not mutually exclusive.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
    I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
    I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.

    I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.
    Funerals can be big vectors for infection - just look at Spain
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    MONARCHY = SOCIALISM! :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Floater said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
    I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
    I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.

    I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.
    Funerals can be big vectors for infection - just look at Spain
    Again : https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8253341/Police-rushed-funeral-gunman-opened-fire-mourners-Manchester-cemetery.html
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:
    You wouldn't want to be that surgeon would you? The poor man will probably be launched on the end of the next missile test.
    Well, if the reports are accurate the reason the operation to insert a stent went wrong is that the surgeon was so terrified his hands were shaking uncontrollably.

    In which case, like Stalin, Kim Jong Un’s viciousness and drive to induce gibbering terror in everyone will have ended up actually killing him.

    Karma’s a bitch...

    But, no, I would not want to be that surgeon unless I was also shagging Kim’s sister and therefore could hope for protection.

    Of course, she might be glad to be rid of him...and reward the surgeon!
    Poetic justice!

    If she is glad though, I'm afraid the surgeon would still have to go - to tie off the loose ends.

    I don't want to talk the poor man's chances down - hopefully most of the rumours about NK are overblown and he's going to be fine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020
    Floater said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
    I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
    I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.

    I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.
    Funerals can be big vectors for infection - just look at Spain
    Agreed.

    Therefore organists should have their fees tripled for attending them.

    *looks hopefully at bank account*
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    Also the freddie sayers guy is a decent interviewer. Seems reasonably well informed, asks sensible questions and most importantly lets the people answer.

    To be fair this approach depends a lot on the willingness of the interviewee to actually respond to the question ... I don't like interviewers interrupting politicians all the time, but if they don't then the pols tend just to produce evasive or point-scoring answers anyway. Ferguson on the other hand seemed very happy to get an opportunity to put his views across in a non-soundbitey way. So works both way. Was a good interview overall. For what it's worth, I think the journalists at the daily briefings need to realise that many of the questions they are asking are going to be answered by non-politicians who aren't going to be playing the normal games that politicians play. Therefore, it's better to give them a sensible non-point-scoring question that they can give a sensible answer to because it's likely they're willing to do so (as Ferguson was here).

    Another case for the journos at the briefing not to be just the political correspondents, imo.
    Some of the comments under the Ferguson interview on YouTube are shocking. People accusing him of being in the pay of Bill Gates and saying he's responsible for crimes against humanity because of the shutdown... 🤦‍♂️
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
    Why thank you.

    I am the Kim of puns.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    I think over 80's (for the most part) would not object as strongly to being socially confined, and there are less of them to make a huge fuss.

    Over 70's however, especially recent ones, just won't accept it and in many cases, I agree.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    And better dress sense than you.....
    Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.
    The two statements are not mutually exclusive.
    In this case they pretty much are :smiley:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
    Why thank you.

    I am the Kim of puns.
    Oh God, mske it stop :smiley:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
    Why thank you.

    I am the Kim of puns.
    Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    And better dress sense than you.....
    Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.
    The two statements are not mutually exclusive.
    In this case they pretty much are :smiley:
    Dominic Cummings‘ judgement is awesome.

    Awesomely bad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
    Why thank you.

    I am the Kim of puns.
    Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.
    Nah, I will Inchon to success.

    (Sorry, @Floater. But if you don’t like puns you’ve got no Seoul.)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
    Why thank you.

    I am the Kim of puns.
    Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.
    Nah, I will Inchon to success.

    (Sorry, @Floater. But if you don’t like puns you’ve got no Seoul.)
    That made me actually LOL
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited April 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Why should age be the sole criterion? From what we know people are at much greater risk if they are fat or male.

    Why not quarantine all fat men? [SNIP]

    I am not sure your assumption that fat people are at greater risk is true. Take a look at figure 9 on page 10 of the latest Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre report on Covid-19 cases in ICUs.

    https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c5a62b13-6486-ea11-9125-00505601089b
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020

    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.

    Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    isam said:

    Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21

    Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.

    Southall
    Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
    Kante Valderama
    Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
    Pele
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.

    We may well see 50k deaths in first 3 months with shielding so same order of magnitude. Not impossible we get towards 100k in the first year still with the lockdown.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    This note from the government website suggests that the fraction positive number over the past few weeks may have been rather overstated, since I imagine many of these negative tests are quite recent, given the ramp up in capacity:

    "The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for people tested is 50,499 higher than the daily increase figure. Cumulative testing figures include 50,499 retrospective reports of people who tested negative between 31 January and 24 April. These are now available due to a new reporting system that includes more laboratories reporting all test results. The overnight change reported is based on figures using the new system. The reporting system of positive results remains stable and no issues have been identified with this data."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    A history of the Kim dynasty:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2018/06/keeping-kims-north-korea-s-communist-monarchy
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    I think he may really be the 'other Kardashian'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.

    It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.
    That might be your best (or worst??) yet
    Why thank you.

    I am the Kim of puns.
    Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.
    Nah, I will Inchon to success.

    (Sorry, @Floater. But if you don’t like puns you’ve got no Seoul.)
    That made me actually LOL
    Who are North Korea's favourite hip hop band?

    Run-DMZ!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    edited April 2020
    To carry on with the TLAs, FFS.

    I wonder if there are nearby collectively-minded western organisations whose support they can enlist in their struggle?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    dr_spyn said:
    Dangerously low poll rating for the Tories there.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Listening to Iron Maiden in concert right now

    What a band....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dr_spyn said:
    Labour is only back to its 2019 GE vote share.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Interesting use of the word "research" by the Tories to mean "haters".
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited April 2020
    Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Gabs3 said:

    So it looks like North Korea is going to have a female leader before the Labour Party does.

    Made me chuckle. :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Some of the comments under the Ferguson interview on YouTube are shocking. People accusing him of being in the pay of Bill Gates and saying he's responsible for crimes against humanity because of the shutdown... 🤦‍♂️

    Never ever, ever, ever read the comments on a youtube video of anything remotely current affairs. It makes politics twitter look like a phd thesis.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    GIN1138 said:

    Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?
    I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    ydoethur said:

    Gabs3 said:

    So it looks like North Korea is going to have a female leader before the Labour Party does.

    Miaouw...

    But, then, Scotland had a female leader before Labour as well.
    Back in the 16th century as well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.

    Has this been peer-reviewed by Piers Morgan?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kinabalu said:

    @MyBurningEars

    I am still working through those conundrums you posed me last week about elites and meritocracy etc. Brain whirring away like mad on it. Leading to one or two adjustments - which is a good thing I think. ☺

    Reassuring to know that, given the volume of stuff I spew out on here, at least a fraction of it is genuinely thought-provoking...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Andrew said:


    Some of the comments under the Ferguson interview on YouTube are shocking. People accusing him of being in the pay of Bill Gates and saying he's responsible for crimes against humanity because of the shutdown... 🤦‍♂️

    Never ever, ever, ever read the comments on a youtube video of anything remotely current affairs. It makes politics twitter look like a phd thesis.
    Nevervread twitter either
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21

    Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.

    Southall
    Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
    Kante Valderama
    Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
    Pele
    Very similar to mine. I almost had Valderama, changed last minute

    Although unfortunately Kante and Terry both played for the same club, Chelsea... a tweak required


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,490

    GIN1138 said:

    Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?
    I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.
    We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.

    This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.

    Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.
    Of course not. It looks as if all these modellers are interested in Covid-19 and absolutely nothing else.

    The Government also needs to be asking about the scale of mortality from non-Covid cases that go undiagnosed or untreated, a potentially huge spike in mental illness, mass unemployment and poverty, the collapse of the tax base and the consequent inability to fund public services at anything like their current level.

    I also make no apology for repeating the following:


    Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.

    A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.

    Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.

    People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.

    But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.

    "Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.

    With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".

    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303


    In short, there's a realistic prospect of the lockdown killing more people than the virus and resulting in far more years of life lost as a result of cancer *alone*, never mind anything else. This absolutely does not mean that the lockdown simply has to go and people should be left to take their chances with the disease, but an easing of restrictions is essential and, presumably, cannot be left until about March 2021 whilst the modellers fret and pore over the daily Covid statistics.

    Government has more things to worry about than the virus: its approach to handling it going forward will have to strike a balance, not just be 'Stay at Home' ad infinitum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Watching Goodfellas, Sunak would kill for an economy as vibrant as this
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    dr_spyn said:
    Starmer surge!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On Kim Jong Un, the rumours seem to be numerous and some from apparently well-connected sources:

    https://twitter.com/minchaochoy/status/1253879387868598279?s=21

    I’m inclined to believe that he’s dead.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Andy_JS said:

    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.

    Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.
    Of course not. It looks as if all these modellers are interested in Covid-19 and absolutely nothing else.

    The Government also needs to be asking about the scale of mortality from non-Covid cases that go undiagnosed or untreated, a potentially huge spike in mental illness, mass unemployment and poverty, the collapse of the tax base and the consequent inability to fund public services at anything like their current level.

    I also make no apology for repeating the following:


    Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.

    A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.

    Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.

    People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.

    But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.

    "Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.

    With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".

    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303


    In short, there's a realistic prospect of the lockdown killing more people than the virus and resulting in far more years of life lost as a result of cancer *alone*, never mind anything else. This absolutely does not mean that the lockdown simply has to go and people should be left to take their chances with the disease, but an easing of restrictions is essential and, presumably, cannot be left until about March 2021 whilst the modellers fret and pore over the daily Covid statistics.

    Government has more things to worry about than the virus: its approach to handling it going forward will have to strike a balance, not just be 'Stay at Home' ad infinitum.
    It's a valid point but one which I suspect is repeated in all the countries affected in much the same way. Certainly in Spain it is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    felix said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Starmer surge!
    Ten more years of this and we'll have a Labour government!
  • felix said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Starmer surge!
    At this rate Labour will be in the lead by the end of June.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21

    Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.

    Southall
    Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
    Kante Valderama
    Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
    Pele
    Rather than Terry...as you cant have kante and terry...what about bobbie moore?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Andy_JS said:

    In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.

    Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.
    Of course not. It looks as if all these modellers are interested in Covid-19 and absolutely nothing else.

    The Government also needs to be asking about the scale of mortality from non-Covid cases that go undiagnosed or untreated, a potentially huge spike in mental illness, mass unemployment and poverty, the collapse of the tax base and the consequent inability to fund public services at anything like their current level.

    I also make no apology for repeating the following:


    Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.

    A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.

    Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.

    People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.

    But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.

    "Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.

    With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".

    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303


    In short, there's a realistic prospect of the lockdown killing more people than the virus and resulting in far more years of life lost as a result of cancer *alone*, never mind anything else. This absolutely does not mean that the lockdown simply has to go and people should be left to take their chances with the disease, but an easing of restrictions is essential and, presumably, cannot be left until about March 2021 whilst the modellers fret and pore over the daily Covid statistics.

    Government has more things to worry about than the virus: its approach to handling it going forward will have to strike a balance, not just be 'Stay at Home' ad infinitum.
    I'd recommend watching that full Unherd interview with Ferguson:

    https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1254055568626630656

    This is actually one of the issues he talks about. One thing that's complicated is that the problem of people being unable to access healthcare is, in different respects, both exacerbated but also relieved by lockdown.

    Without lockdown you've got overcrowded hospitals and no capacity for other procedures. In fact until and unless lockdown manages to reduces cases to a manageable number, there'll still be the problem of eg vulnerable people not being able to go to hospital for fear of nosocomial infection, and things like chemotherapy/organ transplant being extremely dangerous due to their effect on the immune system. I don't think it's as simple as saying "if we had abolished lockdown, all this other health care would have been able to continue as normal".

    But on the other hand, and Ferguson admits this in the interview, lockdown does produce serious health harms. It's a tricky one, frankly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    GIN1138 said:

    Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?
    I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.
    We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.

    This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.
    Yes of course that would be great! But its not going to happen regardless of what we want to happen, so we need a strategy for dealing with less Western co-operation, more nationalism, isolationism and trade tensions than we have seen for the last 25-30 years.

    China and Russia will have long term plans on how to benefit from this period whilst our politicians will lurch from incident to incident with no coherent plan beyond appearing popular in the press.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21

    Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.

    Southall
    Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
    Kante Valderama
    Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
    Pele
    Rather than Terry...as you cant have kante and terry...what about bobbie moore?
    That seems ok... played with Pelé in Escape to victory but that doesn’t count!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    On Kim Jong Un, the rumours seem to be numerous and some from apparently well-connected sources:

    https://twitter.com/minchaochoy/status/1253879387868598279?s=21

    I’m inclined to believe that he’s dead.

    Yep, I thought that when the rumours appeared earlier this week and no footage appeared to contradict it. Nothing has changed that opinion.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!

    https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21

    Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.

    Southall
    Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
    Kante Valderama
    Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
    Pele
    Very similar to mine. I almost had Valderama, changed last minute

    Although unfortunately Kante and Terry both played for the same club, Chelsea... a tweak required


    Doh, think I can have Kompany for Terry. Probably a lot easier without Ronaldo as he takes up Juve, Real and Man Utd but he has to be in!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited April 2020
    My team per the no duplicate teams rule:

    Jaaskeleinen

    Alexander-Arnold
    Kompany
    Montero
    Maldini

    Extebberia
    Moutinho
    Keane
    Pires

    Messi

    Lewandowski
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eek said:

    On Kim Jong Un, the rumours seem to be numerous and some from apparently well-connected sources:

    https://twitter.com/minchaochoy/status/1253879387868598279?s=21

    I’m inclined to believe that he’s dead.

    Yep, I thought that when the rumours appeared earlier this week and no footage appeared to contradict it. Nothing has changed that opinion.
    He might not be dead. He might just be resting?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    GIN1138 said:

    Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?
    I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.
    We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.

    This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.
    Yes of course that would be great! But its not going to happen regardless of what we want to happen, so we need a strategy for dealing with less Western co-operation, more nationalism, isolationism and trade tensions than we have seen for the last 25-30 years.

    China and Russia will have long term plans on how to benefit from this period whilst our politicians will lurch from incident to incident with no coherent plan beyond appearing popular in the press.
    Russia is facing one of the starkest strategic dilemmas of all, and may need to reorient its foreign policy towards Western integration.
This discussion has been closed.