My hunch is that Sweden will be proved right and everywhere else proved wrong, but we'll see.
If so, and notwithstanding questions that would still need be asked of our own governmental response to do otherwise, I hope that the decision is seen in the context of what near everyone else was doing. But I do not think it will.
If Sweden has it right that's brilliant, a few awkward Gov't questions doesn't change that. Their Rt looks to be > 1 right now though, which doesn't bode well.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Sweden breaks down diagnosis age groups on their arcgis page
Brazil should already have more deaths than any Western European nation as it has a bigger population but it has not
It's not as if someone took the virus to every country and fired a starting pistol before releasing it. You can't make comparisons when the epidemic is at different stages in different places.
You most certainly can, the death rate from Covid depends almost entirely on how many over 70s and particularly over 80s there are in that country, no other factor comes close
Yes, that much is obvious. Brazil and Nigeria are in earlier phases of the curve. That is all.
Nope, neither will even be in the top 5 nations on deaths per head, Nigeria will almost certainly not even be in the top 10.
As I have said time and time again Covid is a rich countries disease, developing nations with few over 80s have a relatively low death rate from it
Life expectancy is a function largely of infant mortality. It is facile to compare it with life expectancy as an adult.
Nigeria has lots of older people, and is the most populous country in sub saharan Africa by quite some margin. Brazil has transformed in terms of population structure in a couple of generations in a way that took two centuries in Europe.
In absolute numbers both will have formidable mortality.
Tbf HYUFD talks about proportion of the population over 80 (which also depends a lot on birth rate) rather than life expectancy.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
The recent Korean legal drama Hyenas is also very entertaining. (Netflix)
I watched Train to Busan the other night. An exceptionally good zombie film, with a pacy story and engaging characterisation.
South Korea really is a country whose time has come. I hope North Korea can reunify peacefully with it when the despicable regime collapses.
The last few years of Korean cinema and TV have been exceptional. The difference between what is made there now, and what was made even as recently as ten years ago (particularly TV), is remarkable.
Reunification is an odd one. It remains deeply ingrained in both nations’ cultures, while the postwar development of the two is massively mutually antithetical.
(& btw, there’s a Train to Busan sequel in the works.)
"How did “flattening the curve” morph into “avoiding a second peak”? "
That is a bloody good question.
"Flattening the curve" was a popular idea early on before people knew just how many people would have to be hospitalized, and how long for. But two things have changed:
1) It seems (although this depends how many infected-but-healthy people there are out there) like you may need years and years of hospital capacity, in which case the flattened curve needs to be implausibly long.
2) Some countries in East Asia seem to be competently suppressing the disease while maintaining a normal or near-normal economy, so it seems like there's an alternative to just mitigating the damage until you get herd immunity.
My hunch is that Sweden will be proved right and everywhere else proved wrong, but we'll see.
If so, and notwithstanding questions that would still need be asked of our own governmental response to do otherwise, I hope that the decision is seen in the context of what near everyone else was doing. But I do not think it will.
If Sweden has it right that's brilliant, a few awkward Gov't questions doesn't change that.
That wasn't my point. If they are right, brilliant, and quesitons will need to be asked of all those governments who acted differently not just ours why they concluded differently and if their conclusions were reasonable. What I would hope to avoid is a pile on acting as though we acted particularly unreasonably if there is not evidence to suggest so, which given how common reactions like ours have been seems unlikely. It's not about avoiding awkward questions, it's about the rightness or wrongness of our governmental response being set in appropriate context, when I suspect if Sweden are right it will be played as though Boris and Cummings alone in the world played it wrong.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Sweden breaks down diagnosis age groups on their arcgis page
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
Nurses will need above inflation pay rises - so it's either triple lock or printing money.
Why will they need above inflation pay rises. Money will be needed for unemployment benefit , nurses and other public service jobs will be the gold standard without pay rises. No zero hours contracts for them.
"How did “flattening the curve” morph into “avoiding a second peak”? "
That is a bloody good question.
"Flattening the curve" was a popular idea early on before people knew just how many people would have to be hospitalized, and how long for. But two things have changed:
1) It seems (although this depends how many infected-but-healthy people there are out there) like you may need years and years of hospital capacity, in which case the flattened curve needs to be implausibly long.
2) Some countries in East Asia seem to be competently suppressing the disease while maintaining a normal or near-normal economy, so it seems like there's an alternative to just mitigating the damage until you get herd immunity.
I think his point is that we originally 'signed up', as it were, to a lockdown to flatten the curve and save the NHS, now the goalpost has been moved and it is about having no risk at all of a 2nd peak.
The UK is doing worse than Sweden right now and the US worse than the UK. But no sensible country would want to follow any of them. There are dozens of other countries that have handled the epidemic much better that you can base yourself on.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
The recent Korean legal drama Hyenas is also very entertaining. (Netflix)
I watched Train to Busan the other night. An exceptionally good zombie film, with a pacy story and engaging characterisation.
South Korea really is a country whose time has come. I hope North Korea can reunify peacefully with it when the despicable regime collapses.
The last few years of Korean cinema and TV have been exceptional. The difference between what is made there now, and what was made even as recently as ten years ago (particularly TV), is remarkable.
Reunification is an odd one. It remains deeply ingrained in both nations’ cultures, while the postwar development of the two is massively mutually antithetical.
I think integration of North Korea will be more complex than the reunification of Germany, but will be a massive boost to South Korea when done. South Korea has amongst the lowest fertility rate in the world, and a North Korean workforce would solve that issue quickly.
It will happen at some point. When and how are problematic. We saw though in China and Vietnam how quickly Communist economies can transform . I think North Korea will do the same.
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
Sweden breaks down diagnosis age groups on their arcgis page
Has anybody got the stats for hospitalisation numbers for 40-60 year olds. It is not insignificant and it is something all the medics interviewed state, we were expecting a rush of oldies, what we got was a hell of a lot of middle aged folk.
That’s partly because many elderly patients never get hospitalised.
Yes, but also the decline in the middle aged is both more slow and more reversible with supportive measures. Even with aggressive hospital treatment survival of the older age groups is grim.
I know a couple of 20 something HCWs who look to have survived, but can barely walk 100 yards without getting breathless. Those who get it badly may survive at young ages, but that does not make it a minor illness.
It is quite inexplicably idiosyncratic in its severity. Like some random dice thrown by the gods.
I watched the Zoe webinar today. They are using the twin survey and reckon it's probably going to be half genetics and half environment. Being overweight seems to be bad, asthma less so. Mobility problems also bad. More studies under way. https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/webinar-covid-research
The UK is doing worse than Sweden right now and the US worse than the UK. But no sensible country would want to follow any of them. There are dozens of other countries that have handled the epidemic much better that you can base yourself on.
Are we doing worse than the USA ?
Better than New York for sure, but not as well as California. On average the USA has a lower death rate per million still.
The UK is doing worse than Sweden right now and the US worse than the UK. But no sensible country would want to follow any of them. There are dozens of other countries that have handled the epidemic much better that you can base yourself on.
Greece is perhaps the best example of an effective lockdown in Europe. Iceland and Finland pretty impressive too.
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.
The recent Korean legal drama Hyenas is also very entertaining. (Netflix)
I watched Train to Busan the other night. An exceptionally good zombie film, with a pacy story and engaging characterisation.
South Korea really is a country whose time has come. I hope North Korea can reunify peacefully with it when the despicable regime collapses.
The last few years of Korean cinema and TV have been exceptional. The difference between what is made there now, and what was made even as recently as ten years ago (particularly TV), is remarkable.
Reunification is an odd one. It remains deeply ingrained in both nations’ cultures, while the postwar development of the two is massively mutually antithetical.
I think integration of North Korea will be more complex than the reunification of Germany, but will be a massive boost to South Korea when done. South Korea has amongst the lowest fertility rate in the world, and a North Korean workforce would solve that issue quickly.
It will happen at some point. When and how are problematic. We saw though in China and Vietnam how quickly Communist economies can transform . I think North Korea will do the same.
I don’t disagree, but ‘at some point‘ could be quite a long wait.
"How did “flattening the curve” morph into “avoiding a second peak”? "
That is a bloody good question.
"Flattening the curve" was a popular idea early on before people knew just how many people would have to be hospitalized, and how long for. But two things have changed:
1) It seems (although this depends how many infected-but-healthy people there are out there) like you may need years and years of hospital capacity, in which case the flattened curve needs to be implausibly long.
2) Some countries in East Asia seem to be competently suppressing the disease while maintaining a normal or near-normal economy, so it seems like there's an alternative to just mitigating the damage until you get herd immunity.
"How did “flattening the curve” morph into “avoiding a second peak”? "
That is a bloody good question.
"Flattening the curve" was a popular idea early on before people knew just how many people would have to be hospitalized, and how long for. But two things have changed:
1) It seems (although this depends how many infected-but-healthy people there are out there) like you may need years and years of hospital capacity, in which case the flattened curve needs to be implausibly long.
2) Some countries in East Asia seem to be competently suppressing the disease while maintaining a normal or near-normal economy, so it seems like there's an alternative to just mitigating the damage until you get herd immunity.
"How did “flattening the curve” morph into “avoiding a second peak”? "
That is a bloody good question.
"Flattening the curve" was a popular idea early on before people knew just how many people would have to be hospitalized, and how long for. But two things have changed:
1) It seems (although this depends how many infected-but-healthy people there are out there) like you may need years and years of hospital capacity, in which case the flattened curve needs to be implausibly long.
2) Some countries in East Asia seem to be competently suppressing the disease while maintaining a normal or near-normal economy, so it seems like there's an alternative to just mitigating the damage until you get herd immunity.
Also. This was before we knew enough. You need the kind of measures used in China, unacceptable in any democratic society. Or the mass surveillance tracing and testing used in Korea and Taiwan. The measures used in the West result in a vast plateau stretching off into the who knows when future.. Where the number of cases remain high but within capacity. But any lessening threatens a second wave. Because it is simply extremely infectious. We didn't know just how much when Boris was on about sombreros.
My hunch is that Sweden will be proved right and everywhere else proved wrong, but we'll see.
If so, and notwithstanding questions that would still need be asked of our own governmental response to do otherwise, I hope that the decision is seen in the context of what near everyone else was doing. But I do not think it will.
If Sweden has it right that's brilliant, a few awkward Gov't questions doesn't change that.
That wasn't my point. If they are right, brilliant, and quesitons will need to be asked of all those governments who acted differently not just ours why they concluded differently and if their conclusions were reasonable. What I would hope to avoid is a pile on acting as though we acted particularly unreasonably if there is not evidence to suggest so, which given how common reactions like ours have been seems unlikely. It's not about avoiding awkward questions, it's about the rightness or wrongness of our governmental response being set in appropriate context, when I suspect if Sweden are right it will be played as though Boris and Cummings alone in the world played it wrong.
I don’t think the public will pile on Boris if Sweden’s strategy works. He wanted to do as they have initially, and lost his nerve, but almost every other politician, from Farage to Starmer, wanted a more urgent lockdown, so he is on the right side of the argument really.
The criticism of Boris is from the other side - that he didn’t lockdown quickly or harshly enough. Obviously people who dislike him will criticise him whatever, but they are just a minority of political obsessives in the main
This matches what I hear from the stroke people through the grapevine.. DVT too. Coagulopathy is quite a problem.
Also along those lines, this was interesting...
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf ... We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID-19...
The UK is doing worse than Sweden right now and the US worse than the UK. But no sensible country would want to follow any of them. There are dozens of other countries that have handled the epidemic much better that you can base yourself on.
Are we doing worse than the USA ?
Better than New York for sure, but not as well as California. On average the USA has a lower death rate per million still.
Fair point, California and some other states have handled the epidemic well.
Went out this afternoon and assumed the lockdown had ended and I had missed the announcement, apart from non food shops and bars not being opened high street was busy. Groups of people having an open air beer session on the benches in the high street etc.
I note that the UK is now three weeks behind Italy. As they are on the way down, two weeks would be better.
The UK makes up 10% of all deaths worldwide, officially.
We are haifway through Episode 3 of a 10 episode Drama that may get green-lit for several seasons more, meaning dozens of episodes
Oh sure. Past performance is no indicator etc. Unfortunately we will pay the price for some time to come for the mistakes the government has made previously. Not just in lives lost, but high infection rates also give little headroom to ease off restrictions without overwhelming the system. People won't have the confidence to go about their business as freely as those in other countries where the risk of catching the disease is much lower.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.
Given the economy is flat on its back, programmes like HS2 make considerable sense Cutting spending in the face of a depression is Hoover economics.
It's funny how HS2 has become one of these identity issues that transcends political and economic realities. It was deemed expensive and potentially unnecessary when it was budgeted at £20bn. Then it went up to £80bn and still its supporters harrumphed on about 'cheaper to do it now, only have to do it in the future' etc.
Now the economy is being throttled by a global pandemic, which has also seen offices close and almost the entire nation's workforce work from home, perfectly satisfactorily. Making an utter mockery of the urgent need of worker ants to get into London a bit quicker.
I cannot help thinking that if Birmingham and London were both wiped out by a targeted nuclear strike, HS2 supporters would still find some reason to support the thing.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
Simply taking the headline figure announced every day as any indication of trend is for the ill informed and innumerate.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
Simply taking the headline figure announced every day as any indication of trend is for the ill informed and innumerate.
I'm starting to wonder if it'll be sustained though - anecdotally (And this is backed up by the overall data) the roads seemed busy today for a Saturday when we drove over for the daily horse duties. I'm not convinced everyone was out on an essential journey. Just hoping all this clear dicking around with lockdown measures hasn't pushed Rt over 1...
I've spent a half hour or so in the Hard Left twitter-sphere.
The desperation to blame Johnson and team for the deaths of people in UK from the virus is off the scale. They actually believe Johnson gets up in the morning and plots ways to kill more of his elderly core vote.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
There has also been in a reduction in absolute numbers of positive cases (by PCR testing) in hospital when assessed by specimen date.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
Simply taking the headline figure announced every day as any indication of trend is for the ill informed and innumerate.
I'm starting to wonder if it'll be sustained though - anecdotally (And this is backed up by the overall data) the roads seemed busy today for a Saturday when we drove over for the daily horse duties. I'm not convinced everyone was out on an essential journey.
Yes this isn't good.
And despite deaths / hospital admissions / ICU bed usage falling, I expect to see a significant number of daily deaths for many weeks to come i.e. a long tail to this first wave.
I've spent a half hour or so in the Hard Left twitter-sphere.
The desperation to blame Johnson and team for the deaths of people in UK from the virus is off the scale. They actually believe Johnson gets up in the morning and plots ways to kill more of his elderly core vote.
I heard he has spent the past week burying bodies in the grounds of chequers to keep them off the books.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.
Given the economy is flat on its back, programmes like HS2 make considerable sense Cutting spending in the face of a depression is Hoover economics.
It's funny how HS2 has become one of these identity issues that transcends political and economic realities. It was deemed expensive and potentially unnecessary when it was budgeted at £20bn. Then it went up to £80bn and still its supporters harrumphed on about 'cheaper to do it now, only have to do it in the future' etc.
Now the economy is being throttled by a global pandemic, which has also seen offices close and almost the entire nation's workforce work from home, perfectly satisfactorily. Making an utter mockery of the urgent need of worker ants to get into London a bit quicker.
I cannot help thinking that if Birmingham and London were both wiped out by a targeted nuclear strike, HS2 supporters would still find some reason to support the thing.
HS2 is a project to build a new N-S railway corridor that will be used for 100 or 150 years.
Our great grandchildren will be using it. They will have barely heard of the 2020 pandemic if at all.
There may well be something in keeping new arrivals out the country to be honest even if the disease is rampant. If the vaccine developed here works best against the most dominant mutagen present you don't want other mutagens entering to screw it up. Now that might be bollocks but I am wondering.
I've spent a half hour or so in the Hard Left twitter-sphere.
The desperation to blame Johnson and team for the deaths of people in UK from the virus is off the scale. They actually believe Johnson gets up in the morning and plots ways to kill more of his elderly core vote.
I heard he has spent the past week burying bodies in the grounds of chequers to keep them off the books.
That explains his absence. I presume he is using below minimum wage grave diggers?
So the press conference questions for tomorrow....
What took so long for you to manage to get a working antibody test? Why were the academics only working 20hrs a day on this? Why are they only 99% accurate? Why did you waste so much money on the Chinese antibody tests? Why will it take a month before we can get it in a large numbers? Why will it take a year before everybody can get one all of the time? What about Maureen, she is poor, blind, house bound, has no access to a computer or the internet, and has a mental health condition means she can't interact with strangers, what will you do to ensure she gets a test?
Summary of the press conference....total confusion over new antibody tests, as government fails to promise a test for everybody who wants one for many months.
I'm certain this will be the case. Even assuming a near perfect response there will have been tens of thousands of deaths and an economy shattered, and even the more positive assessments would not suggest we will have a near perfect response. It will take time, as people are supportive in the moment and it will be an extended moment, but things are going to be bad for a long time, and there will be plenty of mistakes or errors - understandable, reasonable, it will only matter by degree - which will contribute to a very hostile view when looking back with perfect hindsight.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
Simply taking the headline figure announced every day as any indication of trend is for the ill informed and innumerate.
I'm starting to wonder if it'll be sustained though - anecdotally (And this is backed up by the overall data) the roads seemed busy today for a Saturday when we drove over for the daily horse duties. I'm not convinced everyone was out on an essential journey. Just hoping all this clear dicking around with lockdown measures hasn't pushed Rt over 1...
I think you’re right that it won’t be sustained, but isn’t that how things are meant to be? The speed limit is 30 so people won’t drive at 40 and so on, and I think if the worst people are doing is having a quiet drink or going for a walk with 3-4 close friends or family, that’s a good outcome
Went out this afternoon and assumed the lockdown had ended and I had missed the announcement, apart from non food shops and bars not being opened high street was busy. Groups of people having an open air beer session on the benches in the high street etc.
Yes, I ventured out in daytime for the first time and went back home straight away. Horrifying, it was impossible to keep any sort of distance, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. It's back to my 'only after 10pm' rule now.
I'm certain this will be the case. Even assuming a near perfect response there will have been tens of thousands of deaths and an economy shattered, and even the more positive assessments would not suggest we will have a near perfect response. It will take time, as people are supportive in the moment and it will be an extended moment, but things are going to be bad for a long time, and there will be plenty of mistakes or errors - understandable, reasonable, it will only matter by degree - which will contribute to a very hostile view when looking back with perfect hindsight.
Yes, I’m sure the people who criticise Boris for not locking down fast or hard enough will be criticising him for the recession that the lockdown causes as well.
My hunch is that Sweden will be proved right and everywhere else proved wrong, but we'll see.
If so, and notwithstanding questions that would still need be asked of our own governmental response to do otherwise, I hope that the decision is seen in the context of what near everyone else was doing. But I do not think it will.
If Sweden has it right that's brilliant, a few awkward Gov't questions doesn't change that.
That wasn't my point. If they are right, brilliant, and quesitons will need to be asked of all those governments who acted differently not just ours why they concluded differently and if their conclusions were reasonable. What I would hope to avoid is a pile on acting as though we acted particularly unreasonably if there is not evidence to suggest so, which given how common reactions like ours have been seems unlikely. It's not about avoiding awkward questions, it's about the rightness or wrongness of our governmental response being set in appropriate context, when I suspect if Sweden are right it will be played as though Boris and Cummings alone in the world played it wrong.
I don’t think the public will pile on Boris if Sweden’s strategy works. He wanted to do as they have initially, and lost his nerve, but almost every other politician, from Farage to Starmer, wanted a more urgent lockdown, so he is on the right side of the argument really.
It wasn't the public I was really thinking of (though for entirely separate reasons I think long term there willbe consequences, fair or not, simply because of being the governemnt when it occurred and suffering its effects). And that almost every other politician wanted the lockdown will I am sure play into the defensive arguments the government will use, not without reason. In fact, what scientists and politicians were asking, nay, demanding, is something that needs to be kept in mind when this is all assessed.
Ultimately many things are political choices, but the choice even if wrong may not have been unreasonable. That is what will need answering alongside the basic question of whether things went wrong.
I'm certain this will be the case. Even assuming a near perfect response there will have been tens of thousands of deaths and an economy shattered, and even the more positive assessments would not suggest we will have a near perfect response. It will take time, as people are supportive in the moment and it will be an extended moment, but things are going to be bad for a long time, and there will be plenty of mistakes or errors - understandable, reasonable, it will only matter by degree - which will contribute to a very hostile view when looking back with perfect hindsight.
Yes, I’m sure the people who criticise Boris for not locking down fast or hard enough will be criticising him for the recession that the lockdown causes as well.
I think there will be a lot of 'right decision, poorly implemented' calls. Some of which will turn out true, some will not be true. We'll see where the balance falls for the majority. The sooner we are at something closer to normality the easier it will be.
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.
Given the economy is flat on its back, programmes like HS2 make considerable sense Cutting spending in the face of a depression is Hoover economics.
It's funny how HS2 has become one of these identity issues that transcends political and economic realities. It was deemed expensive and potentially unnecessary when it was budgeted at £20bn. Then it went up to £80bn and still its supporters harrumphed on about 'cheaper to do it now, only have to do it in the future' etc.
Now the economy is being throttled by a global pandemic, which has also seen offices close and almost the entire nation's workforce work from home, perfectly satisfactorily. Making an utter mockery of the urgent need of worker ants to get into London a bit quicker.
I cannot help thinking that if Birmingham and London were both wiped out by a targeted nuclear strike, HS2 supporters would still find some reason to support the thing.
HS2 is a project to build a new N-S railway corridor that will be used for 100 or 150 years.
Our great grandchildren will be using it. They will have barely heard of the 2020 pandemic if at all.
I don't think that the mass urge to travel long distances to physically meet with people will survive the current intensive crash course in holding remote business meetings via the likes of Zoom? The technology's been there for a while, the difference is that now the whole nation has been trained in how to use it. Likewise the trend towards working from an office at home has I think been greatly accelerated.
Projections for a continued long term growth of long distance rail travel are going to look as outdated as the projections of the NCB for a continued long term growth in the use of coal for energy generation.
Israel was shit hot on early quarantine. Seems to be about a 1/10th our fatality rate.
I notice that even in Israel they have discontinued the use of the tracking app they developed because of public concern over the level of surveillance.
With the news that China have been trying to hack a load of research facilities looking at CV....I hope they haven't been using Zoom to conduct conference calls.
Went out this afternoon and assumed the lockdown had ended and I had missed the announcement, apart from non food shops and bars not being opened high street was busy. Groups of people having an open air beer session on the benches in the high street etc.
Yes, I ventured out in daytime for the first time and went back home straight away. Horrifying, it was impossible to keep any sort of distance, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. It's back to my 'only after 10pm' rule now.
Israel was shit hot on early quarantine. Seems to be about a 1/10th our fatality rate.
One of the hardest countries to get into is one of the easiest countries to quarantine. No shit Sherlock etc
The big test will be if and when these countries - Israel, New Zealand. Iceland - open up again. Because if they don’t open up their economies are fucked
Was Israel particularly hard to get into pre-lockdown ? Remember seeing loads of adverts for a twin break of Tel Aviv/Jerusalem during the Tour De France on Eurosport ages back. I mean it's tricky to get into if you're in Gaza, but for a general passport holder wanting to do some sightseeing ?
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.
Given the economy is flat on its back, programmes like HS2 make considerable sense Cutting spending in the face of a depression is Hoover economics.
It's funny how HS2 has become one of these identity issues that transcends political and economic realities. It was deemed expensive and potentially unnecessary when it was budgeted at £20bn. Then it went up to £80bn and still its supporters harrumphed on about 'cheaper to do it now, only have to do it in the future' etc.
Now the economy is being throttled by a global pandemic, which has also seen offices close and almost the entire nation's workforce work from home, perfectly satisfactorily. Making an utter mockery of the urgent need of worker ants to get into London a bit quicker.
I cannot help thinking that if Birmingham and London were both wiped out by a targeted nuclear strike, HS2 supporters would still find some reason to support the thing.
HS2 is a project to build a new N-S railway corridor that will be used for 100 or 150 years.
Our great grandchildren will be using it. They will have barely heard of the 2020 pandemic if at all.
I don't think that the mass urge to travel long distances to physically meet with people will survive the current intensive crash course in holding remote business meetings via the likes of Zoom? The technology's been there for a while, the difference is that now the whole nation has been trained in how to use it. Likewise the trend towards working from an office at home has I think been greatly accelerated.
Projections for a continued long term growth of long distance rail travel are going to look as outdated as the projections of the NCB for a continued long term growth in the use of coal for energy generation.
Good point particularly as opposed to 100/ 150 year prediction.
I'm certain this will be the case. Even assuming a near perfect response there will have been tens of thousands of deaths and an economy shattered, and even the more positive assessments would not suggest we will have a near perfect response. It will take time, as people are supportive in the moment and it will be an extended moment, but things are going to be bad for a long time, and there will be plenty of mistakes or errors - understandable, reasonable, it will only matter by degree - which will contribute to a very hostile view when looking back with perfect hindsight.
Yes, I’m sure the people who criticise Boris for not locking down fast or hard enough will be criticising him for the recession that the lockdown causes as well.
Justifiably. A fast, hard lockdown would likely also have been a shorter lockdown and hence have caused less economic damage.
I'm certain this will be the case. Even assuming a near perfect response there will have been tens of thousands of deaths and an economy shattered, and even the more positive assessments would not suggest we will have a near perfect response. It will take time, as people are supportive in the moment and it will be an extended moment, but things are going to be bad for a long time, and there will be plenty of mistakes or errors - understandable, reasonable, it will only matter by degree - which will contribute to a very hostile view when looking back with perfect hindsight.
Yes, I’m sure the people who criticise Boris for not locking down fast or hard enough will be criticising him for the recession that the lockdown causes as well.
Justifiably. A fast, hard lockdown would likely also have been a shorter lockdown and hence have caused less economic damage.
Such certainty in respect of the uncertain. Idiot.
I'm certain this will be the case. Even assuming a near perfect response there will have been tens of thousands of deaths and an economy shattered, and even the more positive assessments would not suggest we will have a near perfect response. It will take time, as people are supportive in the moment and it will be an extended moment, but things are going to be bad for a long time, and there will be plenty of mistakes or errors - understandable, reasonable, it will only matter by degree - which will contribute to a very hostile view when looking back with perfect hindsight.
Yes, I’m sure the people who criticise Boris for not locking down fast or hard enough will be criticising him for the recession that the lockdown causes as well.
Justifiably. A fast, hard lockdown would likely also have been a shorter lockdown and hence have caused less economic damage.
Israel was shit hot on early quarantine. Seems to be about a 1/10th our fatality rate.
One of the hardest countries to get into is one of the easiest countries to quarantine. No shit Sherlock etc
The big test will be if and when these countries - Israel, New Zealand. Iceland - open up again. Because if they don’t open up their economies are fucked
On the second point, aren't we about to do what they've all been doing with regards to the quarantine etc just with plenty more CV and deaths already in the pipeline ? We'll need to hope for a mahoosive iceberg effect for that to be anywhere near better than early lockdown countries.
Antibody test announcement, quarantine when returning from travel, is Boris back at work or something?
There's an antibody test now?
Apparently the government tasked some so called scientists at that second rate institution, Cowley Poly, to come up with one and it appears they have managed to do what nobody else has, i.e. a reliable home antibody kit, and the government have ordered 50 million of them.
Apparently the original Mr Super Spreader was involved, because of his weirdness, it allowed them to solve the issue of those that don't some any real symptoms and weren't being picked up by most tests.
Israel was shit hot on early quarantine. Seems to be about a 1/10th our fatality rate.
One of the hardest countries to get into is one of the easiest countries to quarantine. No shit Sherlock etc
The big test will be if and when these countries - Israel, New Zealand. Iceland - open up again. Because if they don’t open up their economies are fucked
Was Israel particularly hard to get into pre-lockdown ? Remember seeing loads of adverts for a twin break of Tel Aviv/Jerusalem during the Tour De France on Eurosport ages back. I mean it's tricky to get into if you're in Gaza, but for a general passport holder wanting to do some sightseeing ?
Israel is very ‘hard’ to get into, in terms of rigorous checks. Nearly everyone arrives by plane at Ben Gurion airport and the security is extreme.
Cross the land border and you can expect hours of waiting.
It’s not hard to tighten all that a tad and bingo you have a very effective quarantine.
Closing down a free trading, porous, large liberal nation like the UK is infinitely harder. London is New York is Milano
Antibody test announcement, quarantine when returning from travel, is Boris back at work or something?
There's an antibody test now?
Apparently the government tasked some so called scientists at that second rate institution, Cowley Poly, to come up with one and it appears they have managed to do what nobody else has and the government have ordered 50 million of them.
Not surprising, given Cowley Poly is the epicenter of biomedical research these days.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
If there is its pretty minimal looking at the Worldometer charts and it certainly doesn't compare with the pace of the fall in those other countries. Hence the current disparity in daily death rates between the UK and elsewhere in Europe seems to be widening.
Antibody test announcement, quarantine when returning from travel, is Boris back at work or something?
There's an antibody test now?
Apparently the government tasked some so called scientists at that second rate institution, Cowley Poly, to come up with one and it appears they have managed to do what nobody else has and the government have ordered 50 million of them.
Not surprising, given Cowley Poly is the epicenter of biomedical research these days.
Silliness aside, that's utterly excellent news.
Yes, it is the best bit of news in weeks. Although it seems we will have to wait until June before they have produced the first million and they can then be distributed widely.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
If there is its pretty minimal looking at the Worldometer charts and it certainly doesn't compare with the pace of the fall in those other countries. Hence the current disparity in daily death rates between the UK and elsewhere in Europe seems to be widening.
Head desk...thud.....take no notice of the daily announced headline figure (or the ones on Worldometer). Use the ones from the official government source that provides them by actual date of death. Once you do that...you get the actual picture, and our decline looks a bit faster than the likes of Spain, France and Italy. And for the record, not only is this guy an academic, he was on R4 the other day explaining this.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
If there is its pretty minimal looking at the Worldometer charts and it certainly doesn't compare with the pace of the fall in those other countries. Hence the current disparity in daily death rates between the UK and elsewhere in Europe seems to be widening.
Head desk...thud.....take no notice of the daily announced headline figure (or the ones on Worldometer). Use the ones from the official government source that provides them by actual date of death. Once you do that...you get the actual picture, and our decline looks a bit than the likes of Spain, France and Italy.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....
Might be for the best, if people think the numbers are heading south they'll meet up for a group hair and nails sesh at Jane's place.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....
Might be for the best, if people think the numbers are heading south they'll meet up for a group hair and nails sesh at Jane's place.
That is probably correct, although the egg-head stand there and openly talk about it having peaked, decline in admissions etc etc etc. Then the media go "but but but the number of deaths is up again today", which makes it look like the egg-heads have been talking crap.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
It makes no difference what number you use when you're talking to people who don't understand process error. You're always going to get random noise resulting in increases from time to time, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the reporting seems to be pretty low.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
It makes no difference what number you use when you're talking to people who don't understand process error. You're always going to get random noise resulting in increases from time to time, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the reporting seems to be pretty low.
I just despair when I see the BBC putting trend lines through the headline daily death number. Their job is to inform the public, not misinform them.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
I've spent a half hour or so in the Hard Left twitter-sphere.
The desperation to blame Johnson and team for the deaths of people in UK from the virus is off the scale. They actually believe Johnson gets up in the morning and plots ways to kill more of his elderly core vote.
I heard he has spent the past week burying bodies in the grounds of chequers to keep them off the books.
That explains his absence. I presume he is using below minimum wage grave diggers?
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
It makes no difference what number you use when you're talking to people who don't understand process error. You're always going to get random noise resulting in increases from time to time, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the reporting seems to be pretty low.
I just despair when I see the BBC putting trend lines through the headline daily death number. Their job is to inform the public, not misinform them.
Truth is, the picture that gives won't actually be a million miles away from what's really happening.
Obviously it isn't the metric I'd choose, but part of my job is to explain this sort of stuff to fairly high-powered (and supposedly fairly numerate) people. It seems to be very hard work to wrap your head around if you're not thinking about it on a daily basis. And I take the view that, if it was easy, that I'd be a whole lot less employable. It helps me stay very relaxed about others failing to understand things that are blindingly obvious to me.
Also worth noting that even the likes of David Paton are missing that you need to look at the speed of the whole reporting pattern, not just compare results after x days and hope they're comparable.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
As if the media would be able to understand why a change was being made. There'd be screams of a cover up.
Went out this afternoon and assumed the lockdown had ended and I had missed the announcement, apart from non food shops and bars not being opened high street was busy. Groups of people having an open air beer session on the benches in the high street etc.
Yes, I ventured out in daytime for the first time and went back home straight away. Horrifying, it was impossible to keep any sort of distance, I couldn't believe what I was seeing. It's back to my 'only after 10pm' rule now.
How do you exercise?
Walking up massive hills (there is no other sort around here). Tire myself out before going to be and I sleep better.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
It makes no difference what number you use when you're talking to people who don't understand process error. You're always going to get random noise resulting in increases from time to time, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the reporting seems to be pretty low.
I just despair when I see the BBC putting trend lines through the headline daily death number. Their job is to inform the public, not misinform them.
Truth is, the picture that gives won't actually be a million miles away from what's really happening.
Obviously it isn't the metric I'd choose, but part of my job is to explain this sort of stuff to fairly high-powered (and supposedly fairly numerate) people. It seems to be very hard work to wrap your head around if you're not thinking about it on a daily basis. And I take the view that, if it was easy, that I'd be a whole lot less employable. It helps me stay very relaxed about others failing to understand things that are blindingly obvious to me.
Also worth noting that even the likes of David Paton are missing that you need to look at the speed of the whole reporting pattern, not just compare results after x days and hope they're comparable.
I don't think he is missing it. I am fairly certain I have seen him tweet mentioning the changes in reporting speed.
If you were really trying to do this A++ obviously you would be doing more than his basic spreadsheet, but I believe he is simply trying to quickly show an alternative view of the released figure that are closer to the real picture.
ut others failing to understand things that are blindingly obvious to me.
Also worth noting that even the likes of David Paton are missing that you need to look at the speed of the whole reporting pattern, not just compare results after x days and hope they're comparable.
'Speed' is all over the place with loads of backfitted cases. Quite how George Elliot added a death that occured on 11th March to its 25th April figures I'm not sure but it's now in the data and wasn't on the 24th April.
I honestly don't know why the government slides keep using the daily headline figure nor the media. It gives such a distorted picture.
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
It makes no difference what number you use when you're talking to people who don't understand process error. You're always going to get random noise resulting in increases from time to time, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the reporting seems to be pretty low.
I just despair when I see the BBC putting trend lines through the headline daily death number. Their job is to inform the public, not misinform them.
Truth is, the picture that gives won't actually be a million miles away from what's really happening.
Obviously it isn't the metric I'd choose, but part of my job is to explain this sort of stuff to fairly high-powered (and supposedly fairly numerate) people. It seems to be very hard work to wrap your head around if you're not thinking about it on a daily basis. And I take the view that, if it was easy, that I'd be a whole lot less employable. It helps me stay very relaxed about others failing to understand things that are blindingly obvious to me.
Also worth noting that even the likes of David Paton are missing that you need to look at the speed of the whole reporting pattern, not just compare results after x days and hope they're comparable.
I don't think he is missing it. I am fairly certain I have seen him tweet mentioning the changes in reporting speed.
If you were really trying to do this A++ obviously you would be doing more than his basic spreadsheet, but I believe he is simply trying to quickly show an alternative view of the released figure that are closer to the real picture.
Oh, fair enough then. All I've seen is some stuff about distortions caused by weekend delays. But yes, that makes sense.
A few more days like today and they'll be changing their mind. Today's UK daily death rate was more than the combined total of any two other European countries. The UK also came close to achieving that nadir using yesterday's figures.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
There is a clear downward trend in the UK too. Its been going on for 2+ weeks.
If there is its pretty minimal looking at the Worldometer charts and it certainly doesn't compare with the pace of the fall in those other countries. Hence the current disparity in daily death rates between the UK and elsewhere in Europe seems to be widening.
Head desk...thud.....take no notice of the daily announced headline figure (or the ones on Worldometer). Use the ones from the official government source that provides them by actual date of death. Once you do that...you get the actual picture, and our decline looks a bit than the likes of Spain, France and Italy.
Comments
Perhaps smoking skewed the stats more in China.
over 65 in Brazil 9%
In Italy 23%
The difference between what is made there now, and what was made even as recently as ten years ago (particularly TV), is remarkable.
Reunification is an odd one. It remains deeply ingrained in both nations’ cultures, while the postwar development of the two is massively mutually antithetical.
(& btw, there’s a Train to Busan sequel in the works.)
1) It seems (although this depends how many infected-but-healthy people there are out there) like you may need years and years of hospital capacity, in which case the flattened curve needs to be implausibly long.
2) Some countries in East Asia seem to be competently suppressing the disease while maintaining a normal or near-normal economy, so it seems like there's an alternative to just mitigating the damage until you get herd immunity.
That is a big change of goal.
It will happen at some point. When and how are problematic. We saw though in China and Vietnam how quickly Communist economies can transform . I think North Korea will do the same.
Monarchism = Personality Cult
Monarchism = Socialism!
HYUFD = Socialist!
The story that paints is a weird picture.
This matches what I hear from the stroke people through the grapevine.. DVT too. Coagulopathy is quite a problem.
Better than New York for sure, but not as well as California. On average the USA has a lower death rate per million still.
The UK makes up 10% of all deaths worldwide, officially.
The measures used in the West result in a vast plateau stretching off into the who knows when future..
Where the number of cases remain high but within capacity. But any lessening threatens a second wave.
Because it is simply extremely infectious.
We didn't know just how much when Boris was on about sombreros.
The criticism of Boris is from the other side - that he didn’t lockdown quickly or harshly enough. Obviously people who dislike him will criticise him whatever, but they are just a minority of political obsessives in the main
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf
... We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID-19...
Jeremy Corbyn's brother Piers, 73, leads protest against coronavirus lockdown which has to be shut down by police
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8257133/Jeremy-Corbyns-brother-Piers-73-leads-protest-against-coronavirus-lockdown.html
Outcry as rich Saint-Tropez residents 'given coronavirus tests'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/outcry-as-rich-saint-tropez-residents-given-coronavirus-tests
Two weeks' quarantine if travelling to the UK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/25/two-weeks-quarantine-travelling-uk/
'They are trying to steal everything.' US coronavirus response hit by foreign hackers
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/25/politics/us-china-cyberattacks-coronavirus-research/index.html
Now the economy is being throttled by a global pandemic, which has also seen offices close and almost the entire nation's workforce work from home, perfectly satisfactorily. Making an utter mockery of the urgent need of worker ants to get into London a bit quicker.
I cannot help thinking that if Birmingham and London were both wiped out by a targeted nuclear strike, HS2 supporters would still find some reason to support the thing.
The stats seem to show that it's not only Germany that has turned things around in Europe. There's a clear downward cumulative trend in deaths in Italy, Spain and France as well.
Simply taking the headline figure announced every day as any indication of trend is for the ill informed and innumerate.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1254163143141527552?s=20
Guernsey has been doing this for five weeks.
Just hoping all this clear dicking around with lockdown measures hasn't pushed Rt over 1...
The desperation to blame Johnson and team for the deaths of people in UK from the virus is off the scale. They actually believe Johnson gets up in the morning and plots ways to kill more of his elderly core vote.
And despite deaths / hospital admissions / ICU bed usage falling, I expect to see a significant number of daily deaths for many weeks to come i.e. a long tail to this first wave.
Our great grandchildren will be using it. They will have barely heard of the 2020 pandemic if at all.
What took so long for you to manage to get a working antibody test?
Why were the academics only working 20hrs a day on this?
Why are they only 99% accurate?
Why did you waste so much money on the Chinese antibody tests?
Why will it take a month before we can get it in a large numbers?
Why will it take a year before everybody can get one all of the time?
What about Maureen, she is poor, blind, house bound, has no access to a computer or the internet, and has a mental health condition means she can't interact with strangers, what will you do to ensure she gets a test?
Summary of the press conference....total confusion over new antibody tests, as government fails to promise a test for everybody who wants one for many months.
Ultimately many things are political choices, but the choice even if wrong may not have been unreasonable. That is what will need answering alongside the basic question of whether things went wrong.
Projections for a continued long term growth of long distance rail travel are going to look as outdated as the projections of the NCB for a continued long term growth in the use of coal for energy generation.
https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1254118875844825088?s=20
I mean it's tricky to get into if you're in Gaza, but for a general passport holder wanting to do some sightseeing ?
We'll need to hope for a mahoosive iceberg effect for that to be anywhere near better than early lockdown countries.
Apparently the original Mr Super Spreader was involved, because of his weirdness, it allowed them to solve the issue of those that don't some any real symptoms and weren't being picked up by most tests.
Silliness aside, that's utterly excellent news.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?s=20
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041726811078656?s=20
I keep getting texts from friends saying, but you said the death rate has peaked 2 weeks ago, you are talking crap, I have seen it on the BBC it is up 30% today....try to explain the reason...next day...same again..
Obviously it isn't the metric I'd choose, but part of my job is to explain this sort of stuff to fairly high-powered (and supposedly fairly numerate) people. It seems to be very hard work to wrap your head around if you're not thinking about it on a daily basis. And I take the view that, if it was easy, that I'd be a whole lot less employable. It helps me stay very relaxed about others failing to understand things that are blindingly obvious to me.
Also worth noting that even the likes of David Paton are missing that you need to look at the speed of the whole reporting pattern, not just compare results after x days and hope they're comparable.
If you were really trying to do this A++ obviously you would be doing more than his basic spreadsheet, but I believe he is simply trying to quickly show an alternative view of the released figure that are closer to the real picture.