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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A message from Mike Smithson

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,423

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    Sounds like he’s all over the place emotionally as well, tbh.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Jonathan said:

    eadric said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    I've at least four years worth of outgoings in the bank and a fairly secure job, even though I've been told there will be no bonuses this year, about a quarter of my income.

    And I have stopped spending. I don't mean, I've stopped spending on going out, that's taken as a given. I mean, I have looked at all the large discretionary purchases I was planning on making this year, from a new gaming rig, a refurbished bathroom, to another snazzy new watch, and said OK, that will have to wait. The jeweller has already phoned me desperate to know if I want to skip the wait list. But no. Apparently everyone else has had the same idea.

    Unless it's absolutely essential or breaks, the money stays in my pocket.

    And I am quite well off. I can only imagine what people who were living hand to mouth before all this are feeling.

    The economy is in dire shape, it will get worse from here, I think only discount brands selling essential products have a chance of doing well or even surviving this.

    This is a health crisis, but an economic catastrophe.
    Yes. Same here. And I have a guaranteed healthy income for the next couple years. The money goes on my kids, food, ok-ish wine, that’s it. I don’t need any clothes, champagne or absurd electronics.

    It’s just too frightening right now.

    On the upside, before all this happened my accountant told me: ‘to feel secure you need a year with basically spending nothing. Then you will catch up with the taxman’

    It seems to be unfurling that way.
    Inflation.
    Yeah. I have a six figure sum sitting in cash at the moment, inflation terrifies me.

    Considering punting it all into bitcoin. What's the worst that could happen?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Donated (middle option).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,423
    TOPPING said:

    Needless to say the best site out there.

    Funnily enough although an important community resource right now I'm not so sure the quality of the debate is at its best. A bunch of people selectively quoting whichever epidemiologist most closely agrees with their point of view.

    While most also, with a few notable exceptions, giving the government a free pass on whatever on the hoof policy seems most expedient at any particular time.

    And donated, obvs.

    At least there is always my awesome punning to lighten the mood.

    Or alternatively, wait until Kinabalu turns up and then say something about private schools.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    eadric said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    I've at least four years worth of outgoings in the bank and a fairly secure job, even though I've been told there will be no bonuses this year, about a quarter of my income.

    And I have stopped spending. I don't mean, I've stopped spending on going out, that's taken as a given. I mean, I have looked at all the large discretionary purchases I was planning on making this year, from a new gaming rig, a refurbished bathroom, to another snazzy new watch, and said OK, that will have to wait. The jeweller has already phoned me desperate to know if I want to skip the wait list. But no. Apparently everyone else has had the same idea.

    Unless it's absolutely essential or breaks, the money stays in my pocket.

    And I am quite well off. I can only imagine what people who were living hand to mouth before all this are feeling.

    The economy is in dire shape, it will get worse from here, I think only discount brands selling essential products have a chance of doing well or even surviving this.

    This is a health crisis, but an economic catastrophe.
    Yes. Same here. And I have a guaranteed healthy income for the next couple years. The money goes on my kids, food, ok-ish wine, that’s it. I don’t need any clothes, champagne or absurd electronics.

    It’s just too frightening right now.

    On the upside, before all this happened my accountant told me: ‘to feel secure you need a year with basically spending nothing. Then you will catch up with the taxman’

    It seems to be unfurling that way.
    Inflation.
    Yeah. I have a six figure sum sitting in cash at the moment, inflation terrifies me.

    Considering punting it all into bitcoin. What's the worst that could happen?
    You lose it ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Scarpia said:

    Have done so before and happy to bung a mite or so at the end of the week (pension arrives).
    It occurs to me as Mike and "co conspirators" don't get anything out of this, might not PB be turned into charitable status.. so getting HMRC top-ups to taxpayer contributors, as well as other possible tax breaks? We seem to have enough eminent lawyers on hand to advise.

    As a Charitable Trustee in flesh-world, I think the promotion of gambling on politics might struggle to get past the Charity Commisioners...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited April 2020
    Donated a few coins!

    Great site, even if there are too many PB Tories - wonderful strange species!

    PS - I was a PB Tory too once before I was kicked out for being far too good looking!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Needless to say the best site out there.

    Funnily enough although an important community resource right now I'm not so sure the quality of the debate is at its best. A bunch of people selectively quoting whichever epidemiologist most closely agrees with their point of view.

    While most also, with a few notable exceptions, giving the government a free pass on whatever on the hoof policy seems most expedient at any particular time.

    And donated, obvs.

    At least there is always my awesome punning to lighten the mood.

    Or alternatively, wait until Kinabalu turns up and then say something about private schools.
    For such comforts...
  • Foxy said:

    Scarpia said:

    Have done so before and happy to bung a mite or so at the end of the week (pension arrives).
    It occurs to me as Mike and "co conspirators" don't get anything out of this, might not PB be turned into charitable status.. so getting HMRC top-ups to taxpayer contributors, as well as other possible tax breaks? We seem to have enough eminent lawyers on hand to advise.

    As a Charitable Trustee in flesh-world, I think the promotion of gambling on politics might struggle to get past the Charity Commisioners...
    If I do a weekly thread on electoral voting systems perhaps we'll get classed as an educational charity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    He’s right if, as in 1945, the left comes forward with a positive and coherent programme that both addresses the serious medical and financial concerns we now face and taps into people’s hope that the sacrifices made this year ultimately deliver something better.

    He’s wrong if, as in 2008/9, the left simply relies on the right’s worldview having been proved deficient but has nothing worthwhile to offer in its place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    So, who are the companies that can manufacture 25,000 gallon oil tanks and get them to West Texas next month?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    eadric said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    I've at least four years worth of outgoings in the bank and a fairly secure job, even though I've been told there will be no bonuses this year, about a quarter of my income.

    And I have stopped spending. I don't mean, I've stopped spending on going out, that's taken as a given. I mean, I have looked at all the large discretionary purchases I was planning on making this year, from a new gaming rig, a refurbished bathroom, to another snazzy new watch, and said OK, that will have to wait. The jeweller has already phoned me desperate to know if I want to skip the wait list. But no. Apparently everyone else has had the same idea.

    Unless it's absolutely essential or breaks, the money stays in my pocket.

    And I am quite well off. I can only imagine what people who were living hand to mouth before all this are feeling.

    The economy is in dire shape, it will get worse from here, I think only discount brands selling essential products have a chance of doing well or even surviving this.

    This is a health crisis, but an economic catastrophe.
    Yes. Same here. And I have a guaranteed healthy income for the next couple years. The money goes on my kids, food, ok-ish wine, that’s it. I don’t need any clothes, champagne or absurd electronics.

    It’s just too frightening right now.

    On the upside, before all this happened my accountant told me: ‘to feel secure you need a year with basically spending nothing. Then you will catch up with the taxman’

    It seems to be unfurling that way.
    Inflation.
    Yeah. I have a six figure sum sitting in cash at the moment, inflation terrifies me.

    Considering punting it all into bitcoin. What's the worst that could happen?
    Gone in a flash of an electron!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    I have to admit I've made some decisions for the future.

    I'm unlikely to go overseas for the near future, airplanes, even in first class, they seem like ideal vectors to spread something like Covid-19.

    If Covid-19 or something similar comes back in the future then I really don't want to be trapped overseas as the planes stop and get stuck in an overwhelmed health system like America or Italy.

    I was supposed to be on US, Japan and Australia this year. Unless i accidentally become a plague survivor, there is absolutely no chance i am getting on a load of long haul flights.
    Have to admit I'm not keen on using trains, which might be an issue as I'm a daily train user.
    For some of us, not travelling on trains is almost on a par with taking a vow of celibacy!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Evening all :)

    What I'm finding surprising is talking to contacts in local authorities there's no real sense of the fiscal armageddon approaching. Indeed, with budgets for 20/21 already agreed everyone is going on almost as though nothing was happening and looking forward to spending some quite generous capital allocations.

    Yes, most Councils did get very involved in the establishment of the Covid infrastructure but that now seems to be up and running and there's a view it's back to business as usual.

    I'm trying to work out what this will all mean for the commercial property market in the next 6-12 months and it looks very bad. Quite apart from those companies which will not survive and default on their rental payments from where is the demand for new office space going to come? Many firms are experiencing the full benefits/horror (delete as appropriate) of staff working at home and some are already wondering if the cost of their corporate estate is justifiable.

    The other sector on my mind is the residential care home area which has been financially weak for some time. The model of taking elderly people into residential care at £1000 or more per week just isn't sustainable - the care home industry is suffering hugely negative press and I just wonder if we may see a new demand for homes with integrated units for older relatives.

    There is the issue of dementia care which is much harder to resolve.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Has OGH considered acquiring some oil?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52350082
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited April 2020

    Well, my retirement has come at a titanic moment. We have three discrete sets of sources of income and all three are looking a little shaky at present. But we’d budgeted on the basis that markets might crash 30% when we pressed the button, so we should be ok.

    We’re cutting down our expenditure now because there’s nothing much to spend money on. However, that’s only temporary.

    I’m planning later in the year to see what pride of possession purchases might be out there. I doubt I can persuade the household FD that we need a sports car but works of art might get budgetary approval.

    Covid's taken a substantial hit on our finances....I really don't care provided all (or as many as humanly possible) of the people I know and care about- and that includes the familiar faces on pbCOM...get through this crisis with their health intact....
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    I made plenty of money on net from PB.com and will tithe.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    Though there will be some people who have money but are normally low spenders who now think "can't take it with you" and are now more willing to spend (especially if there are bargains about).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    I have to admit I've made some decisions for the future.

    I'm unlikely to go overseas for the near future, airplanes, even in first class, they seem like ideal vectors to spread something like Covid-19.

    If Covid-19 or something similar comes back in the future then I really don't want to be trapped overseas as the planes stop and get stuck in an overwhelmed health system like America or Italy.

    I was supposed to be on US, Japan and Australia this year. Unless i accidentally become a plague survivor, there is absolutely no chance i am getting on a load of long haul flights.
    Have to admit I'm not keen on using trains, which might be an issue as I'm a daily train user.
    For some of us, not travelling on trains is almost on a par with taking a vow of celibacy!
    I managed to time my daily walk to see a pair of 20s through Woking today.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Alistair said:
    On a serious note - some posters mentioned looking at the oil market for investment.

    Be careful - very careful. After 2008, some bankers thought hey, lets look for something new to try. And ended up being charged all the money in the world for storage of the physical deliveries they ended up with....

    The oil market is not generic as it sounds (types of crude for a start) and there is limited storage and refining capacity at most locations - can't just rock up and unload. Lots of deals done between tight groups of companies - and they love nothing more that picking the flesh off people who think they are being smart.

    There's money to be made - no doubt. But really do the research into what you buying/selling....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    eadric said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    I've at least four years worth of outgoings in the bank and a fairly secure job, even though I've been told there will be no bonuses this year, about a quarter of my income.

    And I have stopped spending. I don't mean, I've stopped spending on going out, that's taken as a given. I mean, I have looked at all the large discretionary purchases I was planning on making this year, from a new gaming rig, a refurbished bathroom, to another snazzy new watch, and said OK, that will have to wait. The jeweller has already phoned me desperate to know if I want to skip the wait list. But no. Apparently everyone else has had the same idea.

    Unless it's absolutely essential or breaks, the money stays in my pocket.

    And I am quite well off. I can only imagine what people who were living hand to mouth before all this are feeling.

    The economy is in dire shape, it will get worse from here, I think only discount brands selling essential products have a chance of doing well or even surviving this.

    This is a health crisis, but an economic catastrophe.
    Yes. Same here. And I have a guaranteed healthy income for the next couple years. The money goes on my kids, food, ok-ish wine, that’s it. I don’t need any clothes, champagne or absurd electronics.

    It’s just too frightening right now.

    On the upside, before all this happened my accountant told me: ‘to feel secure you need a year with basically spending nothing. Then you will catch up with the taxman’

    It seems to be unfurling that way.
    Inflation.
    Yeah. I have a six figure sum sitting in cash at the moment, inflation terrifies me.

    Considering punting it all into bitcoin. What's the worst that could happen?
    Inflation is a very likely consequence, if only because any other resolution of the immense financial challenges that governments will face would be both politically and socially worse.

    But why should inflation necessarily mean that bitcoin goes up?

    Putting a majority into index linked bonds and minorities into gold and some carefully chosen shares of companies likely to remain resilient in a changing world would be a more prudent strategy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Despite, um, "chilling from home" for over 18 months, I made a donation :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    Living within our means might come back into fashion for the first time in about 40 years.
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    away from donations. the WTI oil price is an example of many such weirdnesses coming down the line. with consumption patterns all over the place, supply is totally out of whack. From lemons to cut flowers via cars, travel and beer. there is going to be some very strange stuff in the next six months.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    Though there will be some people who have money but are normally low spenders who now think "can't take it with you" and are now more willing to spend (especially if there are bargains about).
    Mrs U doesn't need a global pandemic to decide to spend like that....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
    Fracking good banter.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    eadric said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    I've at least four years worth of outgoings in the bank and a fairly secure job, even though I've been told there will be no bonuses this year, about a quarter of my income.

    And I have stopped spending. I don't mean, I've stopped spending on going out, that's taken as a given. I mean, I have looked at all the large discretionary purchases I was planning on making this year, from a new gaming rig, a refurbished bathroom, to another snazzy new watch, and said OK, that will have to wait. The jeweller has already phoned me desperate to know if I want to skip the wait list. But no. Apparently everyone else has had the same idea.

    Unless it's absolutely essential or breaks, the money stays in my pocket.

    And I am quite well off. I can only imagine what people who were living hand to mouth before all this are feeling.

    The economy is in dire shape, it will get worse from here, I think only discount brands selling essential products have a chance of doing well or even surviving this.

    This is a health crisis, but an economic catastrophe.
    Yes. Same here. And I have a guaranteed healthy income for the next couple years. The money goes on my kids, food, ok-ish wine, that’s it. I don’t need any clothes, champagne or absurd electronics.

    It’s just too frightening right now.

    On the upside, before all this happened my accountant told me: ‘to feel secure you need a year with basically spending nothing. Then you will catch up with the taxman’

    It seems to be unfurling that way.
    Inflation.
    Yeah. I have a six figure sum sitting in cash at the moment, inflation terrifies me.

    Considering punting it all into bitcoin. What's the worst that could happen?
    You'd have Bitcoin. That's pretty bad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    TOPPING said:

    Needless to say the best site out there.

    Funnily enough although an important community resource right now I'm not so sure the quality of the debate is at its best. A bunch of people selectively quoting whichever epidemiologist most closely agrees with their point of view.

    While most also, with a few notable exceptions, giving the government a free pass on whatever on the hoof policy seems most expedient at any particular time.

    And donated, obvs.

    While clearly there are some people willing to bend facts to their preferred outcome, this is a site of unusual statistical literacy.

    Indeed, that is part of the reason I like it here. I find in flesh-world that folk who love spreadsheets and such are not easy to find.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    Winning the argument and losing elections. I think Boris and Rishi are going to pinch another of McDonnell's ideas which is to offset expenditure by classing it as investment and recording it as assets. Spend £10 squillion on nationalising manhole covers offset by HMG now owning £10 squillion-worth of round steel. Net cost to the Treasury, zero.

    Which means Rishi does not need to slap a wealth tax on the pb Tories so that's good.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Needless to say the best site out there.

    Funnily enough although an important community resource right now I'm not so sure the quality of the debate is at its best. A bunch of people selectively quoting whichever epidemiologist most closely agrees with their point of view.

    While most also, with a few notable exceptions, giving the government a free pass on whatever on the hoof policy seems most expedient at any particular time.

    And donated, obvs.

    While clearly there are some people willing to bend facts to their preferred outcome, this is a site of unusual statistical literacy.

    Indeed, that is part of the reason I like it here. I find in flesh-world that folk who love spreadsheets and such are not easy to find.
    Speaking of spreadsheets we are still outpacing the dirt simple 'pessimistic' spreadsheet model from back in January.

    I had expected us to be moving towards crossing over about now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    I have to admit I've made some decisions for the future.

    I'm unlikely to go overseas for the near future, airplanes, even in first class, they seem like ideal vectors to spread something like Covid-19.

    If Covid-19 or something similar comes back in the future then I really don't want to be trapped overseas as the planes stop and get stuck in an overwhelmed health system like America or Italy.

    I was supposed to be on US, Japan and Australia this year. Unless i accidentally become a plague survivor, there is absolutely no chance i am getting on a load of long haul flights.
    Have to admit I'm not keen on using trains, which might be an issue as I'm a daily train user.
    For some of us, not travelling on trains is almost on a par with taking a vow of celibacy!
    Blood Covid is preventing me doing those last two trains I need west and north from Inverness!

    And the Sunday-only "Dale Rail" in Lancashire!
    And the brand new Trafford Branch on Manchester's Metrolink!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    For the train enthusiasts, this was taken about 400 yards from my home:




    At present it acts as a time-keeper for me while I’m working.

    Looks like a brand new Class 755 on Chappel Viaduct?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Damn. Missed the University Challenge final -- too busy watching Knives Out.

    Will donate after that. Many appeals like this; third in two days; the Marathon would have been a big fundraiser for a lot of smaller charities. Luckily my redundancy has been postponed a month.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Alistair said:
    On a serious note - some posters mentioned looking at the oil market for investment.

    Be careful - very careful. After 2008, some bankers thought hey, lets look for something new to try. And ended up being charged all the money in the world for storage of the physical deliveries they ended up with....

    The oil market is not generic as it sounds (types of crude for a start) and there is limited storage and refining capacity at most locations - can't just rock up and unload. Lots of deals done between tight groups of companies - and they love nothing more that picking the flesh off people who think they are being smart.

    There's money to be made - no doubt. But really do the research into what you buying/selling....
    I wish I had read you post earlier. I just bought 15 million barrels of Brent Crude. I am going to need a bigger garage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited April 2020

    For the train enthusiasts, this was taken about 400 yards from my home:




    At present it acts as a time-keeper for me while I’m working.

    An unusual gradient.
    (Edit... not so much, now.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Foxy said:

    Scarpia said:

    Have done so before and happy to bung a mite or so at the end of the week (pension arrives).
    It occurs to me as Mike and "co conspirators" don't get anything out of this, might not PB be turned into charitable status.. so getting HMRC top-ups to taxpayer contributors, as well as other possible tax breaks? We seem to have enough eminent lawyers on hand to advise.

    As a Charitable Trustee in flesh-world, I think the promotion of gambling on politics might struggle to get past the Charity Commisioners...
    If I do a weekly thread on electoral voting systems perhaps we'll get classed as an educational charity.
    A pitch to Dominos? - write threads to save the pineapple pizza.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited April 2020

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    Winning the argument and losing elections. I think Boris and Rishi are going to pinch another of McDonnell's ideas which is to offset expenditure by classing it as investment and recording it as assets. Spend £10 squillion on nationalising manhole covers offset by HMG now owning £10 squillion-worth of round steel. Net cost to the Treasury, zero.

    Which means Rishi does not need to slap a wealth tax on the pb Tories so that's good.
    Suddenly, infrastructure spending isn’t the problem, though, is it? The costs of Rishi’s various schemes can’t so simply be wished away.

    Edit/ of some relevance, and interest:

    https://unherd.com/2020/04/will-printing-money-get-us-out-of-this-mess/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    Mortimer said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    Wine growers of France start panicking now!
    It’s not calamitous. Yet. But I’ve gone from daily drinking wines in the £20-£40 bracket to the £10-£20 range.

    Indeed I reckon absurdly expensive French wine is going to take a big hit in this crisis. It is wildly overpriced. The Chinese are staring at their first recession in 50 years. And they are huge buyers of hideously expensive claret.

    Coming soon to a Lidl near you, Haut Brion for a fiver
    If it follows oil, bottles may be more expensive than the contents....
    It could be the first luxury product to be hammered. Outrageously pricey wine depends so much on discretionary spending by socially aspirant Asians. Not a great market to be reliant upon
    I'm inclined to agree with you.

    However, I expected my sales of rare books to tank.

    They haven't.

    In some areas, they've gone up. Lower priced (£50-350), very unusual books are still selling really well.

    My main problem is fulfilment. I can't send the books I've had orders for because the institutions that have ordered them are closed.
    Maybe the thought of death stalking us out in the landscape makes us rather more determined to die owning that first edition Ian Fleming we've always promised ourself?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:



    Inflation is a very likely consequence, if only because any other resolution of the immense financial challenges that governments will face would be both politically and socially worse.

    Yet fuel prices are going to be very low and so presumably will interest rates for the foreseeable. The problem will be getting the demand back into the economy so why should inflation be an issue?

    There will (apparently) be mass unemployment so supply of workers will keep wages low which helps keep unit costs down.

    Governments can borrow at historically low rates and while the debt has to be serviced (and that will mean less spending in other areas), I don't quite see how it is inflationary.

    I'd have thought deflation might be more of a risk but then I'm not an economist or an epidemiologist or an entomologist or even a horticulturalist so why I post here is a mystery.

    I have also donated some of my occasional horse race winnings to Mike - hope you are keeping well, sir.
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    What I'm finding surprising is talking to contacts in local authorities there's no real sense of the fiscal armageddon approaching....
    Yes, most Councils did get very involved in the establishment of the Covid infrastructure but that now seems to be up and running and there's a view it's back to business as usual.

    I'm trying to work out what this will all mean for the commercial property market in the next 6-12 months and it looks very bad. Quite apart from those companies which will not survive and default on their rental payments from where is the demand for new office space going to come? Many firms are experiencing the full benefits/horror (delete as appropriate) of staff working at home and some are already wondering if the cost of their corporate estate is justifiable...

    IS there a comprehensive list of Local Authorities who sank cheaply borrowed Government money into commercial property over the past few years, in the expectation that what they were assured would be rising rental income would fund essential services?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
    Fracking good banter.
    I’m sour all the best puns have gone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    blairf said:

    away from donations. the WTI oil price is an example of many such weirdnesses coming down the line. with consumption patterns all over the place, supply is totally out of whack. From lemons to cut flowers via cars, travel and beer. there is going to be some very strange stuff in the next six months.

    I was chatting to a Maltese friend the other day, busy cooking fresh cuttlefish and squid ink pasta (apparently octopus is not in season yet). He has never seen so many in the market unsold, what with all the restaurants closed. Virtually being given away. Tough on the fishermen, but good for the home cook.
  • My BA flights to Vancouver in May were cancelled by e mail from BA today

    Despite numerous attempts to phone as you cannot get a refund unless you do, (vouchers only on their app) I managed to e mail BA and on Alastair's recommendation contacted my credit card company requesting a full refund on the air fare

    Earlier this evening I phoned BA on the number they gave me and after a wait of one hour 15 minutes my call was answered by a BA customer care assistant. She was very helpful and processed my full refund but in the course of our conversation she said she was working from home in Bolton. Funnily enough my Father was born in Bolton and my Grandfather is buried in Dean Church yard, not far from where this lady lives

    It seems WFH is going to be a default position for many post covid though she was struggling with band width. She did ask how long I had had to wait so no doubt BA are keeping an eye on this

    I wished her well and to keep safe and she does seem to think her job with BA is secure and I agree as I expect HMG would nationalise BA if necessary, but please let Branson lose all his billions before bailing him out from the Virgin Islands.

    I think at times I am becoming a sort of leftee but never a Corbyn one !!!!

    And I will donate in the morning
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    I’d forgotten I had a few quid left in my PayPal account; a nice surprise.
    Fewer now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    Winning the argument and losing elections. I think Boris and Rishi are going to pinch another of McDonnell's ideas which is to offset expenditure by classing it as investment and recording it as assets. Spend £10 squillion on nationalising manhole covers offset by HMG now owning £10 squillion-worth of round steel. Net cost to the Treasury, zero.

    Which means Rishi does not need to slap a wealth tax on the pb Tories so that's good.
    The Tories aren't going to be able to run on business as usual / strong and steady post-CV. Boris was already shifting leftwards, but will be interesting to see what ideas they will come up with, as Labour will be waiting with a much more credible leader and promises for more interventionalist state.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Jonathan said:

    Alistair said:
    On a serious note - some posters mentioned looking at the oil market for investment.

    Be careful - very careful. After 2008, some bankers thought hey, lets look for something new to try. And ended up being charged all the money in the world for storage of the physical deliveries they ended up with....

    The oil market is not generic as it sounds (types of crude for a start) and there is limited storage and refining capacity at most locations - can't just rock up and unload. Lots of deals done between tight groups of companies - and they love nothing more that picking the flesh off people who think they are being smart.

    There's money to be made - no doubt. But really do the research into what you buying/selling....
    I wish I had read you post earlier. I just bought 15 million barrels of Brent Crude. I am going to need a bigger garage.
    Just pour it down the sink, what could go wrong?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    blairf said:

    away from donations. the WTI oil price is an example of many such weirdnesses coming down the line. with consumption patterns all over the place, supply is totally out of whack. From lemons to cut flowers via cars, travel and beer. there is going to be some very strange stuff in the next six months.

    I was chatting to a Maltese friend the other day, busy cooking fresh cuttlefish and squid ink pasta (apparently octopus is not in season yet). He has never seen so many in the market unsold, what with all the restaurants closed. Virtually being given away. Tough on the fishermen, but good for the home cook.
    The island’s boats are still going out daily to collect all the crabs from the pots, but who knows where they are all going. We had a surplus here before the crisis.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Alistair said:
    On a serious note - some posters mentioned looking at the oil market for investment.

    Be careful - very careful. After 2008, some bankers thought hey, lets look for something new to try. And ended up being charged all the money in the world for storage of the physical deliveries they ended up with....

    The oil market is not generic as it sounds (types of crude for a start) and there is limited storage and refining capacity at most locations - can't just rock up and unload. Lots of deals done between tight groups of companies - and they love nothing more that picking the flesh off people who think they are being smart.

    There's money to be made - no doubt. But really do the research into what you buying/selling....
    I wish I had read you post earlier. I just bought 15 million barrels of Brent Crude. I am going to need a bigger garage.
    Just pour it down the sink, what could go wrong?
    There's a good chance that that is exactly what Trump will allow oil companies to do.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    For the train enthusiasts, this was taken about 400 yards from my home:




    At present it acts as a time-keeper for me while I’m working.

    Looks like a brand new Class 755 on Chappel Viaduct?
    Its bad enough that you recognise the train :smiley:
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Made a donation.

    Incidentally I have always had to log on via the vanilla site, doesn't work on the PB site so I have generally logged on and then gone back to the PB site. A couple of days ago I also lost the ability to post from the PB site and have to go on to the vanilla site. Not a problem but am I doing something stupid? I prefer the PB site
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:

    For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

    But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

    I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

    If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

    Living within our means might come back into fashion for the first time in about 40 years.
    There will be quite a lot of people who used to commute but are now at home, with no train journeys or expensive lunches in the city to pay for and not very much else to spend the money on, either.

    Meanwhile, redundancy and furloughing is disproportionately hitting low paid workers who lacked the opportunity to put any money away even before this all started.

    This could all mean that the lockdown does wonders for average household savings, even if people earn as good as no interest at all on all that money.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    Thank you, Mike, the site is invaluable.

    Good evening everyone.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Scarpia said:


    IS there a comprehensive list of Local Authorities who sank cheaply borrowed Government money into commercial property over the past few years, in the expectation that what they were assured would be rising rental income would fund essential services?

    I imagine the Public Works Loan Board know and I would also imagine CIPFA has a pretty good idea.

    Those who got in early (say 2009-10) got some very good investments which have so far returned solid rental yields. At the same time the only players in the commercial property market were local councils and pension funds. These more forward-thinking Councils got out (stopped buying any more) when the market got crowded and are either sitting on or are quietly divesting of their commercial property investments.

    Those who joined the rush later borrowed much larger amounts and overpaid for shopping centres and the like and won't get the strong rental yields. That may prove to be a disastrous policy.

    I have to say for all the grandiose claims the amounts these investments bring in are very small compared to the amounts Councils spend. A County Council or major metropolitan authority will have a Budget of more than a billion pounds - these investments bring in a few million at best.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Jonathan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
    It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Foxy said:

    Scarpia said:

    Have done so before and happy to bung a mite or so at the end of the week (pension arrives).
    It occurs to me as Mike and "co conspirators" don't get anything out of this, might not PB be turned into charitable status.. so getting HMRC top-ups to taxpayer contributors, as well as other possible tax breaks? We seem to have enough eminent lawyers on hand to advise.

    As a Charitable Trustee in flesh-world, I think the promotion of gambling on politics might struggle to get past the Charity Commisioners...
    If I do a weekly thread on electoral voting systems perhaps we'll get classed as an educational charity.
    A pitch to Dominos? - write threads to save the pineapple pizza.
    Definitely educational. I learn more on here each week than any place else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Donation made - keep up the good work!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Don’t want to alarm all you guys, but....

    Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20060566v1
    .... We observed that the testes was one of the highest sites of ACE2 expression in 3 independent RNA expression databases (Human Protein Atlas, FAMTOM5 and GETx). ACE2 was also determined to be highly expressed in testicular cells at the protein levels. Interestingly, very little expression of ACE2 was seen in ovarian tissue. Taken together, these observations demonstrate for the first time that male subjects have delayed viral clearance of SARS-CoV2. High expression of ACE2 in testes raises the possibility that testicular viral reservoirs may play a role in viral persistence in males and should be further investigated....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    stodge said:

    There is the issue of dementia care which is much harder to resolve.

    The second Covid wave will see to that, I fear. Nightingale Hospitals won't be handling them. After the first wave care home death stats, who will want to work with the dementia sufferers? Only places with massive stocks of PPE. And they will be few and far between, not least at continually inflated prices. And even then, the French will comandeer them.

    Will the state really mourn the death of 100,000 or more dementia sufferers? Probably not, if they were honest.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Nigelb said:

    Don’t want to alarm all you guys, but....

    Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20060566v1
    .... We observed that the testes was one of the highest sites of ACE2 expression in 3 independent RNA expression databases (Human Protein Atlas, FAMTOM5 and GETx). ACE2 was also determined to be highly expressed in testicular cells at the protein levels. Interestingly, very little expression of ACE2 was seen in ovarian tissue. Taken together, these observations demonstrate for the first time that male subjects have delayed viral clearance of SARS-CoV2. High expression of ACE2 in testes raises the possibility that testicular viral reservoirs may play a role in viral persistence in males and should be further investigated....

    Oh balls!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Nigelb said:

    Don’t want to alarm all you guys, but....

    Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20060566v1
    .... We observed that the testes was one of the highest sites of ACE2 expression in 3 independent RNA expression databases (Human Protein Atlas, FAMTOM5 and GETx). ACE2 was also determined to be highly expressed in testicular cells at the protein levels. Interestingly, very little expression of ACE2 was seen in ovarian tissue. Taken together, these observations demonstrate for the first time that male subjects have delayed viral clearance of SARS-CoV2. High expression of ACE2 in testes raises the possibility that testicular viral reservoirs may play a role in viral persistence in males and should be further investigated....

    Damn it, Covid-19 has got us by the balls....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
    It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?
    More than 2m apart.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    blairf said:

    away from donations. the WTI oil price is an example of many such weirdnesses coming down the line. with consumption patterns all over the place, supply is totally out of whack. From lemons to cut flowers via cars, travel and beer. there is going to be some very strange stuff in the next six months.

    I was chatting to a Maltese friend the other day, busy cooking fresh cuttlefish and squid ink pasta (apparently octopus is not in season yet). He has never seen so many in the market unsold, what with all the restaurants closed. Virtually being given away. Tough on the fishermen, but good for the home cook.
    The island’s boats are still going out daily to collect all the crabs from the pots, but who knows where they are all going. We had a surplus here before the crisis.
    I hope to get over to the Isle for May Bank Holiday to scoff a few. Just waiting for travel to be permitted again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited April 2020
    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:



    Inflation is a very likely consequence, if only because any other resolution of the immense financial challenges that governments will face would be both politically and socially worse.

    Yet fuel prices are going to be very low and so presumably will interest rates for the foreseeable. The problem will be getting the demand back into the economy so why should inflation be an issue?

    There will (apparently) be mass unemployment so supply of workers will keep wages low which helps keep unit costs down.

    Governments can borrow at historically low rates and while the debt has to be serviced (and that will mean less spending in other areas), I don't quite see how it is inflationary.

    I'd have thought deflation might be more of a risk but then I'm not an economist or an epidemiologist or an entomologist or even a horticulturalist so why I post here is a mystery.

    I have also donated some of my occasional horse race winnings to Mike - hope you are keeping well, sir.
    - a lot of money is being dropped into the economy;
    - there is some pent up demand waiting for lockdown to end;
    - supply disruption means some things are in short supply (cf. fruit and veg prices);
    - companies desperately need to recover their balance sheets (cf. 2021 cruise prices);
    - we may be at peak globalisation, and stuff made cheaply in China may need to be produced again in the west;
    - inflation is by far the least worst political resolution of the impending debt crisis.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    stodge said:

    There is the issue of dementia care which is much harder to resolve.

    The second Covid wave will see to that, I fear. Nightingale Hospitals won't be handling them. After the first wave care home death stats, who will want to work with the dementia sufferers? Only places with massive stocks of PPE. And they will be few and far between, not least at continually inflated prices. And even then, the French will comandeer them.

    Will the state really mourn the death of 100,000 or more dementia sufferers? Probably not, if they were honest.
    People’s fathers, mothers, brothers and sisters? Yes they will mourn.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    stodge said:

    There is the issue of dementia care which is much harder to resolve.

    The second Covid wave will see to that, I fear. Nightingale Hospitals won't be handling them. After the first wave care home death stats, who will want to work with the dementia sufferers? Only places with massive stocks of PPE. And they will be few and far between, not least at continually inflated prices. And even then, the French will comandeer them.

    Will the state really mourn the death of 100,000 or more dementia sufferers? Probably not, if they were honest.
    But their kids will...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    Don’t want to alarm all you guys, but....

    Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20060566v1
    .... We observed that the testes was one of the highest sites of ACE2 expression in 3 independent RNA expression databases (Human Protein Atlas, FAMTOM5 and GETx). ACE2 was also determined to be highly expressed in testicular cells at the protein levels. Interestingly, very little expression of ACE2 was seen in ovarian tissue. Taken together, these observations demonstrate for the first time that male subjects have delayed viral clearance of SARS-CoV2. High expression of ACE2 in testes raises the possibility that testicular viral reservoirs may play a role in viral persistence in males and should be further investigated....

    Damn it, Covid-19 has got us by the balls....
    All of a sudden I understand Sean’s apparently excessive caution.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Alistair said:
    On a serious note - some posters mentioned looking at the oil market for investment.

    Be careful - very careful. After 2008, some bankers thought hey, lets look for something new to try. And ended up being charged all the money in the world for storage of the physical deliveries they ended up with....

    The oil market is not generic as it sounds (types of crude for a start) and there is limited storage and refining capacity at most locations - can't just rock up and unload. Lots of deals done between tight groups of companies - and they love nothing more that picking the flesh off people who think they are being smart.

    There's money to be made - no doubt. But really do the research into what you buying/selling....
    I wish I had read you post earlier. I just bought 15 million barrels of Brent Crude. I am going to need a bigger garage.
    That was a waste of £7.50
    What a waste. Why did you pay Amazon extra for next day delivery?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    For the train enthusiasts, this was taken about 400 yards from my home:




    At present it acts as a time-keeper for me while I’m working.

    You live so close to where I used to live, I';m surprised I never bumped into you!

    Maybe I did...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
    Fracking good banter.
    I’m sour all the best puns have gone.
    Tar for the heads up!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
    It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?
    More than 2m apart.
    How would you know, visibility on Venus being so poor?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    Winning the argument and losing elections. I think Boris and Rishi are going to pinch another of McDonnell's ideas which is to offset expenditure by classing it as investment and recording it as assets. Spend £10 squillion on nationalising manhole covers offset by HMG now owning £10 squillion-worth of round steel. Net cost to the Treasury, zero.

    Which means Rishi does not need to slap a wealth tax on the pb Tories so that's good.
    The Tories aren't going to be able to run on business as usual / strong and steady post-CV. Boris was already shifting leftwards, but will be interesting to see what ideas they will come up with, as Labour will be waiting with a much more credible leader and promises for more interventionalist state.
    The middle class are in for a good soaking regardless of who's in charge. The poor can't help to pay the debts and the rich are insufficiently numerous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
    Fracking good banter.
    I’m sour all the best puns have gone.
    Tar for the heads up!
    Sweet that you don’t find it a bore.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    For the train enthusiasts, this was taken about 400 yards from my home:




    At present it acts as a time-keeper for me while I’m working.

    You live so close to where I used to live, I';m surprised I never bumped into you!

    Maybe I did...
    I apparently once shared a lift with @Verulamius in my office. So such coincidences do happen.

    We only moved here two years ago.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
    It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?
    More than 2m apart.
    How would you know, visibility on Venus being so poor?
    Sorry, you’re not coming too. Venus is strictly a one person planet. Get your arse to Mars.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    blairf said:

    away from donations. the WTI oil price is an example of many such weirdnesses coming down the line. with consumption patterns all over the place, supply is totally out of whack. From lemons to cut flowers via cars, travel and beer. there is going to be some very strange stuff in the next six months.

    I was chatting to a Maltese friend the other day, busy cooking fresh cuttlefish and squid ink pasta (apparently octopus is not in season yet). He has never seen so many in the market unsold, what with all the restaurants closed. Virtually being given away. Tough on the fishermen, but good for the home cook.
    The island’s boats are still going out daily to collect all the crabs from the pots, but who knows where they are all going. We had a surplus here before the crisis.
    I hope to get over to the Isle for May Bank Holiday to scoff a few. Just waiting for travel to be permitted again.
    Free barrel of oil with every pound of crabs....
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Just donated to Cap'n Tom
    so why not PB.Com?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
    It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?
    More than 2m apart.
    How would you know, visibility on Venus being so poor?
    The good news is that with a surface temperature of several hundred Centigrade the virus wouldn't last long. I think the PH should provide belt and braces safety.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    For the train enthusiasts, this was taken about 400 yards from my home:




    At present it acts as a time-keeper for me while I’m working.

    You live so close to where I used to live, I';m surprised I never bumped into you!

    Maybe I did...
    I apparently once shared a lift with @Verulamius in my office. So such coincidences do happen.

    We only moved here two years ago.
    Too late for the free Blur concert!
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 69
    stodge said:

    Scarpia said:




    I have to say for all the grandiose claims the amounts these investments bring in are very small compared to the amounts Councils spend. A County Council or major metropolitan authority will have a Budget of more than a billion pounds - these investments bring in a few million at best.


    Hmm .. I'm old enough to remember previous lunacies in local government such as sale and lease back of streetlights and parking meters in the 1980's, not to forget the interest rate swaps that almost bankrupted LB Hammersmith and Fulham. So I'm somewhat sceptical of the LA risk approach that might have been taken on purchase of commercial property.
  • Floater said:

    stodge said:

    There is the issue of dementia care which is much harder to resolve.

    The second Covid wave will see to that, I fear. Nightingale Hospitals won't be handling them. After the first wave care home death stats, who will want to work with the dementia sufferers? Only places with massive stocks of PPE. And they will be few and far between, not least at continually inflated prices. And even then, the French will comandeer them.

    Will the state really mourn the death of 100,000 or more dementia sufferers? Probably not, if they were honest.
    But their kids will...
    It is very real in our family with our son in laws mother in a home with dementia and her 87 year very ill husband kept in his home and refused access to his wife. The family's emotions are all over the place as they cannot visit their mother/grandmother and if they visit their father it is in ppe
  • Downing Street looking to sack Matt Hancock?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1252339097663950848
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    (BBC) Maryland buys half a million tests from South Korea
    Maryland’s Republican Governor has purchased 500,000 test kits from South Korea with the help of his Korean-born wife.

    Yumi Hogan, who speaks fluent Korean, was up late at night on the phone helping to secure the deal from LabGenomics, the governor said at a press conference on Monday...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Downing Street looking to sack Matt Hancock?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1252339097663950848

    Nadine Dorries is waiting in the wings.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • I hope this is the first step in him and his colleague being sacked and then being charged.

    'Make something up' threat Lancashire Police officer suspended

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52358114
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    ydoethur said:

    McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

    Do you mean emotionally or physically?
    Physically. He has very active the past week. He is currently banging on about how coronavirus is an opportunity for the left.
    "Socialist distancing!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
    Fracking good banter.
    I’m sour all the best puns have gone.
    Tar for the heads up!
    Sweet that you don’t find it a bore.
    It's a gas! (natural of course)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Nigelb said:

    (BBC) Maryland buys half a million tests from South Korea
    Maryland’s Republican Governor has purchased 500,000 test kits from South Korea with the help of his Korean-born wife.

    Yumi Hogan, who speaks fluent Korean, was up late at night on the phone helping to secure the deal from LabGenomics, the governor said at a press conference on Monday...

    His next task is to get those test kits into Maryland without them being diverted.
  • Downing Street looking to sack Matt Hancock?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1252339097663950848

    It was an unnecessary hostage to fortune.

    He looks shattered and maybe a change is a possibility
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    IanB2 said:


    - a lot of money is being dropped into the economy;
    - there is some pent up demand waiting for lockdown to end;
    - supply disruption means some things are in short supply (cf. fruit and veg prices);
    - companies desperately need to recover their balance sheets (cf. 2021 cruise prices);
    - we may be at peak globalisation, and stuff made cheaply in China may need to be produced again in the west;
    - inflation is by far the least worst political resolution of the impending debt crisis.

    I'm struggling with some of this:

    - Apart from the money spent immediately fighting the virus, the furlough money is, I suppose, in lieu of direct welfare and will be withdrawn at some point down the line.
    - Agree about the demand but until people feel safe and confident, will that demand be fully released?
    - Are the shortages of labour or of distribution? My home delivered fruit and veg from New Covent Garden all seems fine and well priced.
    - Well, yes, but I'd have thought luring people back with discounts would be the first step.
    - I don't see how we can match China's prices and how much do we get from India or Bangladesh? Could help Africa I suppose.

    I agree I'd rather work an hour for 30 inflated pounds than 5 deflated pounds but I'm still not convinced we will see a big spike in inflation.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second!
    Damn, Richard III

    Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

    I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...
    The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!
    You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

    That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.
    This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.
    I trust you told them not to be so crude?
    Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.
    That was a cracking comment.
    Fracking good banter.
    I’m sour all the best puns have gone.
    Tar for the heads up!
    Sweet that you don’t find it a bore.
    Regretting I didn't get onto the thread fractionally earlier.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    Nigelb said:

    Don’t want to alarm all you guys, but....

    Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20060566v1
    .... We observed that the testes was one of the highest sites of ACE2 expression in 3 independent RNA expression databases (Human Protein Atlas, FAMTOM5 and GETx). ACE2 was also determined to be highly expressed in testicular cells at the protein levels. Interestingly, very little expression of ACE2 was seen in ovarian tissue. Taken together, these observations demonstrate for the first time that male subjects have delayed viral clearance of SARS-CoV2. High expression of ACE2 in testes raises the possibility that testicular viral reservoirs may play a role in viral persistence in males and should be further investigated....

    Oh bollocks!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    edited April 2020

    Damn. Missed the University Challenge final -- too busy watching Knives Out.

    Hey, @TheScreamingEagles

    Imperial thrash some two-bit college from Cambridge!
This discussion has been closed.