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  • kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't know if this has already been posted, but this short thread is a very good explanation of what is happening in the oil market.

    https://twitter.com/gilbeaq/status/1252293724215762950

    What you have to understand is that the oil market is very different from any other.

    The replies under that thread, from people who clearly know nothing about oil, are terribly amusing.

    No, it doesn’t arrive in single barrels worth more than the contents. Yes, storage needs planning permission and needs to be in regulated vessels. No, the price doesn’t include delivery, you have to pick it up yourself. No, you can’t ‘buy’ it at a negative price then just pour it away.
    I mentioned down thread, the occasion that some traders at one oil company screwed over some bankers who thought they could raid the oil market. They got cheap oil, all right. Then found out that the only available storage was owned by the company the traders they had dealt with, worked for.....
    How much does an oil tanker cost? In for a penny, in for a pound.
    Ed Thorpe, who invented and popularised card-counting to win at Blackjack, once part-owned an oil tanker bought when storage was cheap but hedged by its scrap value, or something like that.
    You can buy rust buckets for pennies. Providing you are OK with killing some of the crew now and then.

    And you have the financial structure that Rob Lowe's character in the West Wing setup - ship is owned by a company which has no assets apart from the ship. The company is then controlled via a stack of shell companies via offshore.

    So when the ship sinks and fucks up half the coastline of a country, the 1st company declares bankruptcy and you walk away untouched.
    Sam the Seaborne expert iirc
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Bit concerned inspector poriot of twitter, might be more inspectator gadget, as he is currently asking twitter who the head of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee is.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm.

    We seem to know very little about Covid.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Alistair said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    I hope this is the first step in him and his colleague being sacked and then being charged.

    'Make something up' threat Lancashire Police officer suspended

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52358114

    He should be kicked off the force for being terminally fucking stupid.

    What sort of imbecile promises to lie, claiming that he will be believed, while being filmed?

    Before we crucify the officer, I’d like to see the full context of the video. Just how provocative were those kids being?

    I am well aware the police can be arseholes. I’ve seen it myself. But right now I’d err on the side of caution before condemning.

    I just wish they’d stop these absurd virtue signaling videos of dancing and clapping.
    They are scrotey chavs. So probably very.

    But that's besides the point. Provocations like that are bread and butter if you're a police officer.

    You are trained (or should be) how to handle it and it should never be like that.

    That guy totally lost his cool and some of the arrogant stuff he said was deeply disturbing.
    Sure. I just wouldn’t end his career and his family’s livelihood on the basis of one video

    The clamor of social media crucifixions needs to be confronted. And now is the time. I would likewise spare the NHS activists caught lying for Labour
    How many falsifying evidences does it take before we can cancel him?
    I think it looks like he has brought the police service into disrepute - which is a specific, sackable offence in the police regulations.

    Could he be liable for a charge of misconduct in a public office?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Is there any reason to believe that the Cushing situation won't also play out like this in late May? Late June? Because it is hard to see how the tanks in Cushing are going to be drained in coming weeks.

    Likely to be volatile, because the oil futures market amplifies price fluctuations. But yes, the big picture is that the oil price has collapsed and ain't gonna recover much anytime soon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    Kaboom!!!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    A reminder that "no lock down Sweden" banned all international travel entry from outside the EEA on the 19th of March.

    So no plane loads of JFK plague carriers arriving there for the last month.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't know if this has already been posted, but this short thread is a very good explanation of what is happening in the oil market.

    https://twitter.com/gilbeaq/status/1252293724215762950

    What you have to understand is that the oil market is very different from any other.

    The replies under that thread, from people who clearly know nothing about oil, are terribly amusing.

    No, it doesn’t arrive in single barrels worth more than the contents. Yes, storage needs planning permission and needs to be in regulated vessels. No, the price doesn’t include delivery, you have to pick it up yourself. No, you can’t ‘buy’ it at a negative price then just pour it away.
    I mentioned down thread, the occasion that some traders at one oil company screwed over some bankers who thought they could raid the oil market. They got cheap oil, all right. Then found out that the only available storage was owned by the company the traders they had dealt with, worked for.....
    How much does an oil tanker cost? In for a penny, in for a pound.
    Ed Thorpe, who invented and popularised card-counting to win at Blackjack, once part-owned an oil tanker bought when storage was cheap but hedged by its scrap value, or something like that.
    You can buy rust buckets for pennies. Providing you are OK with killing some of the crew now and then.

    And you have the financial structure that Rob Lowe's character in the West Wing setup - ship is owned by a company which has no assets apart from the ship. The company is then controlled via a stack of shell companies via offshore.

    So when the ship sinks and fucks up half the coastline of a country, the 1st company declares bankruptcy and you walk away untouched.
    Sam the Seaborne expert iirc
    Yup - in a later episode he gets upset when a whistleblower uses a legal dodge to protect himself by implicating Sam and others. Given that Sam apparently is a genius at the scam deals above, I thought the whistleblower was just being sensible, given who he was dealing with.
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207

    On spending for as long as I'm getting a full salary my plan is to spend as normally as possible - I'm conscious others depend on it.

    This does not extend to South Western Railway.

    So how does that read across to property buying. I put an offer in on a house in Manchester in November at the asking price. I'm buying from the builder and they have been very slow so we haven't exchanged yet. Should I be holding the price, or looking for a discount as cash is probably worth more to them now and prices will be falling soon if not already?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    IanB2 said:

    I had never heard of Cushing, until a comment down thread.

    "Cushing, Oklahoma, 70 miles northeast of Oklahoma City, is a sleepy town with a population just under 8,000. It’s also the intense focus of every major player in the American oil market right now.

    North American crude oil is pouring into Cushing, where dozens of steel storage tanks fan out from the outskirts of town, tank farms that march on for miles and connect to every major oil patch in North America through an maze of pipelines. Cushing’s nickname is “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.”

    It’s one of the largest crude oil storage hubs on Earth, and in the U.S. arguably the most important. Delivery for West Texas Intermediate crude is taken here, priced for Nymex contracts and stored before it’s shipped to refineries."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/05/cushing-oklahoma-small-town-is-holding-illions-in-black-gold.html

    Truly PB is educational!!!

    There’s a massive one under the Netherlands, as well.
    Cushing syndrome is not pleasant
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    I don't understand this false dichotomy between systems. Sweden is 75% less travel, the UK 85% and Italy and Spain deployed the Caribineiri. It's all a scale.
    Yes, it's also not necessarily the case that the Swedish approach is better for the economy.
    Sweden also has a degree of freedom we don't. If you're 25 and, knowing your chances of dying of this (if you get it) are, at the absolute worst, about 0.25% (and probably a good deal less), and you fancy going out for a pint with your mates, you can.

    I have a decent amount of assets, enough to last me a decade or so before I really start to sweat it.

    I'd give them all up in a heartbeat to relive a single summer of my youth.

    Life is precious, but perhaps not in the way the coronavirus pearl clutchers would have us believe.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2020
    No lockdown sweden also banned gatherings of over 500 people whilst British experts were saying it would have no effect and extended that to ban meetings of over 50 people at the end of march.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    eadric said:

    DougSeal said:

    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    Reading this board is like watching someone’s bipolar play out. So is this the end of the world or a massive overreaction? Depends on the time of day.
    Yes, it does.
    We locked down too early. We also locked down too late, too much, too little, too long, too short, too up, too down. too blue. Also grey with mauve patches.

    If you look long enough into the Abyss of Numbers, Piers Corbyn will look back at you....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    I had never heard of Cushing, until a comment down thread.

    "Cushing, Oklahoma, 70 miles northeast of Oklahoma City, is a sleepy town with a population just under 8,000. It’s also the intense focus of every major player in the American oil market right now.

    North American crude oil is pouring into Cushing, where dozens of steel storage tanks fan out from the outskirts of town, tank farms that march on for miles and connect to every major oil patch in North America through an maze of pipelines. Cushing’s nickname is “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.”

    It’s one of the largest crude oil storage hubs on Earth, and in the U.S. arguably the most important. Delivery for West Texas Intermediate crude is taken here, priced for Nymex contracts and stored before it’s shipped to refineries."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/05/cushing-oklahoma-small-town-is-holding-illions-in-black-gold.html

    Truly PB is educational!!!

    There’s a massive one under the Netherlands, as well.
    Cushing syndrome is not pleasant
    Neither is having a massive one under your Netherlands....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Bit concerned inspector poriot of twitter, might be more inspectator gadget, as he is currently asking twitter who the head of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee is.

    His timeline reads more like a mad conspiracy theorist pushing an agenda, as opposed to a data scientist. The “fake nurse” profile looks like a comedy spoof, and he’s not showing the output from what he claims is now a deleted account.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    medical guy on Newsnight saying he has never had a MD shift in 20 years that was so quiet.

    People have lost faith in general medicine, hospital appointments etc etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:


    - a lot of money is being dropped into the economy;
    - there is some pent up demand waiting for lockdown to end;
    - supply disruption means some things are in short supply (cf. fruit and veg prices);
    - companies desperately need to recover their balance sheets (cf. 2021 cruise prices);
    - we may be at peak globalisation, and stuff made cheaply in China may need to be produced again in the west;
    - inflation is by far the least worst political resolution of the impending debt crisis.

    I'm struggling with some of this:

    - Apart from the money spent immediately fighting the virus, the furlough money is, I suppose, in lieu of direct welfare and will be withdrawn at some point down the line.
    - Agree about the demand but until people feel safe and confident, will that demand be fully released?
    - Are the shortages of labour or of distribution? My home delivered fruit and veg from New Covent Garden all seems fine and well priced.
    - Well, yes, but I'd have thought luring people back with discounts would be the first step.
    - I don't see how we can match China's prices and how much do we get from India or Bangladesh? Could help Africa I suppose.

    I agree I'd rather work an hour for 30 inflated pounds than 5 deflated pounds but I'm still not convinced we will see a big spike in inflation.

    You’re right that predicting inflation feels somewhat brave; in 2008 everyone expected QE to lead to inflation, whereas what actually happened was that asset prices inflated but the feared retail and wage rate inflation never materialised. Hence what was expected to hit savers actually rewarded those with assets with the losers being those without, primcipally the young.

    This time however the printed money is dropping straight into the economy, on top of the money saved by consumers not spending on discretionary stuff. Whereas my meals out and drinks down the pub used to pay someone’s wages, now the government is paying those wages but I still have my meals out money in the bank.

    Supply shortages will arise from a combination of disruption to production and to transport. Basic stuff like not having people able to pick fruit and veg.

    We can’t match China’s prices. But in the new economy globalised free trade may, for the first time, start to wane.
  • Providing France and Spain permit entry and the FCO hasn't banned it we will drive to Spain in August as planned. Mrs RP needs to see her dad, the kids need to see their Abuelo. Yes of course it's holiday. But always the same town where the family live. As El Campello is a seaside town for Madrid natives and resident expats it won't be knackered by the forced closure of hotels as it only has a few.

    Suspect that package holidays to the costas won't be a big thing this year...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Another PR disaster for the government.

    https://twitter.com/JimBoardman/status/1252319591952519168

    I'm totally lost. The example account that appears to be quoted reads like Private Eye spoof to me.
    Though Google cache does seem to be all rather pro government. No sign of it being a parody.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1252355901765238784?s=09
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Good interview with Heneghan on Newsnight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Alistair said:

    No lockdown sweden also banned gatherings of over 500 people whilst British experts were saying it would have no effect and extended that to ban meetings of over 50 people at the end of march.

    The big thing i really really didnt understand the UK government banning asap was concerts. 1000s of people all rammed together in a hot sweaty environment, bashing into one another for several hours on end.

    I had tickets during that time and there was absolutely no way i was going to them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    Sweden has a much higher death rate than Norway and Germany and Taiwan and South Korea though, which shows it maybe mass testing that makes the difference more than lockdown
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Balrog said:

    On spending for as long as I'm getting a full salary my plan is to spend as normally as possible - I'm conscious others depend on it.

    This does not extend to South Western Railway.

    So how does that read across to property buying. I put an offer in on a house in Manchester in November at the asking price. I'm buying from the builder and they have been very slow so we haven't exchanged yet. Should I be holding the price, or looking for a discount as cash is probably worth more to them now and prices will be falling soon if not already?
    You should be backing out of the deal, unless you fancy being in negative equity soon.

    We were already in a bubble, now we're in a depression. Plus, we've no idea what the new normal is yet. House prices down about 35% over the next couple of years, I reckon. Maybe I'm wrong, but the downside is much greater than the upside at the moment.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    The Guardian is relentlessly pushing an angle, but most in Sweden are happy not to be in lockdown misery. (My theory is that the Guardian's target eyeballs are mopey people happy to be at home with their cats.)
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I have been saying this for weeks
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259
    I think I once had a very good (but expensive) smorgasbord in one of those buildings
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    edited April 2020

    medical guy on Newsnight saying he has never had a MD shift in 20 years that was so quiet.

    People have lost faith in general medicine, hospital appointments etc etc.

    Anecdote: the gate to the surgery by the fish and chip shop was blown shut, causing patients to think the practice was closed for the duration. Well, at least two patients until yours truly intervened.

    ETA a friend would not go into a pharmacy because "that's where the Covid-19 patients go to collect their medicine".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    Not so puzzling when they have no PPE kit....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    eadric said:

    DougSeal said:

    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    Reading this board is like watching someone’s bipolar play out. So is this the end of the world or a massive overreaction? Depends on the time of day.
    Yes, it does.
    We locked down too early. We also locked down too late, too much, too little, too long, too short, too up, too down. too blue. Also grey with mauve patches.

    If you look long enough into the Abyss of Numbers, Piers Corbyn will look back at you....
    As long as its not Piers Morgan.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Alistair said:

    No lockdown sweden also banned gatherings of over 500 people whilst British experts were saying it would have no effect and extended that to ban meetings of over 50 people at the end of march.

    The big thing i really really didnt understand the UK government banning asap was concerts. 1000s of people all rammed together in a hot sweaty environment, bashing into one another for several hours on end.

    I had tickets during that time and there was absolutely no way i was going to them.
    I went to one on the 21st February, and did a half marathon on the 8th March. About as late as seemed sensible for those types of events.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited April 2020

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I have been saying this for weeks
    Yes, and I have agreed. In part it is fear from patients, but there are also infrastructure issues. With our main operating theatres now overflow ICU and our anaesthetic machines being used as ventilators, with the anaesthetists running the place and supervising proning teams of orthopedic juniors, it isn't really surprising that hip replacements are not being done, is it?

    You cannot simultaneously use the Canberra as a Falklands hospital ship, and sell tickets for a South Atlantic Cruise to pensioners!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Sweden is not doing much better economically - but it is doing better socially, whereas the rest of us have hosed the low-income workers in hospitality while clever professionals get to WFH.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    NewsNight excellent tonight. Prof Carl Henegan and Prof Linda Bauld.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    eadric said:

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    I hope this is the first step in him and his colleague being sacked and then being charged.

    'Make something up' threat Lancashire Police officer suspended

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52358114

    He should be kicked off the force for being terminally fucking stupid.

    What sort of imbecile promises to lie, claiming that he will be believed, while being filmed?

    Before we crucify the officer, I’d like to see the full context of the video. Just how provocative were those kids being?

    I am well aware the police can be arseholes. I’ve seen it myself. But right now I’d err on the side of caution before condemning.

    I just wish they’d stop these absurd virtue signaling videos of dancing and clapping.
    However provocative they were being, there is no way a police officer can threaten to commit perjury as part of an incident. None. Nada. Zero. Zilch.

    But doing it on camera - that’s utterly cretinous.
    Ffs he’s a human. He didn’t punch or kick anyone. In America he would have shot someone and then got away with it.

    His mouth was bigger than his brain. It’s not good. Demote him. Whatever. But a career should not end over a stupid statement, and we do need to see the bigger video if we can.
    A school friend of mine got chucked out of the force for crashing a party while drunk. Mind you he did smash the front door off its hinges to do so.

    He was a a bit Constable Savage so no one was too surprised.
    Without being too virtuous - I hope - we are entering an epoch when we all need to be a bit more understanding of each other, and the perils of the human condition.

    The absurd snitching and cancel culture of social media needs to end. People are going to say mad things from all ends of politics. We need to cut some slack for the Labour activist nurse who fibs about PPE just as we tolerate the cop who gets a bit mouthy in Cumbria.

    We don’t have time for this shit. Let people say sorry and let them keep their jobs.
    Before Twitter and other social media it felt as if the general level of bossiness and self-righteousness in society was always going down throughout the 80s, 90s and noughties. Twitter's big "achievement" has been to bring them back and it isn't a positive development IMO.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Sandpit said:

    Bit concerned inspector poriot of twitter, might be more inspectator gadget, as he is currently asking twitter who the head of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee is.

    His timeline reads more like a mad conspiracy theorist pushing an agenda, as opposed to a data scientist. The “fake nurse” profile looks like a comedy spoof, and he’s not showing the output from what he claims is now a deleted account.
    I expect Guido will be onto it eventually but if this is the government, heads should roll. Oh, hold on, what am I saying? This is CCHQ's GE2019 redux.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited April 2020

    eadric said:

    DougSeal said:

    eadric said:

    This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy

    https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21

    Reading this board is like watching someone’s bipolar play out. So is this the end of the world or a massive overreaction? Depends on the time of day.
    Yes, it does.
    We locked down too early. We also locked down too late, too much, too little, too long, too short, too up, too down. too blue. Also grey with mauve patches.

    If you look long enough into the Abyss of Numbers, Piers Corbyn will look back at you....
    As long as its not Piers Morgan.
    The other Piers is worse for your sanity. Colour Out Of Space is a quiet, amusing tale by comparison....
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    That’s brilliant, made me laugh
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    "An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Some interesting points being made on Newsnight by Mervyn King.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I have been saying this for weeks

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I have been saying this for weeks
    And people have explained why.

    Time and again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1

    Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes.

    This is NYC, but I suspect a similar story here:

    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/massive-spike-in-nyc-cardiac-arrest-deaths-seen-as-sign-of-covid-19-undercounting/2368678/

    In part it could be Covid-19 myocarditis, or it could be those who should have pitched up in ED with their chest pain, but didn't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    "An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...
    An Albanian cab driver told me that he 'ad that Keith Starmer in the back of the cab....

    On a comic note, I am taking an elderly relative to a West London hospital tomorrow for a checkup. So I shall see what is actually happening in non-COVID medicine...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    HYUFD said:

    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19

    As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    "An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...
    Not the Chief SpAd then?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    I agree. 111 should not be directing people with cough and fever to self isolste. They should be booked to a drive in swab centre. Too many late presentations, IMO.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    "An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...
    Not the Chief SpAd then?
    It could be - but given several stories (such as the Chancellor ruling out any economic help, hours before he rolled out...) - the above analysis could well be true.

    In easier times, I would suggest having some fun with planting bullshit stories to test the hypothesis.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    HYUFD said:

    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19

    As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.
    So like the pathologist? Always has the correct diagnosis, just 24 hours too late...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited April 2020

    Another PR disaster for the government.

    https://twitter.com/JimBoardman/status/1252319591952519168

    Surely mid-pandemic Malcolm Tucker would be kept firmly in his box.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020

    HYUFD said:

    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19

    As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.
    Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shops
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....
    Bit drastic, surely ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    The other Piers is worse for your sanity. Colour Out Of Space is a quiet, amusing tale by comparison....

    I'm tending towards the opinion that anyone called Piers needs to be locked up. There's something wrong with them.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1

    Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.

    Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.

    Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    "An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...
    Not the Chief SpAd then?
    It could be - but given several stories (such as the Chancellor ruling out any economic help, hours before he rolled out...) - the above analysis could well be true.

    In easier times, I would suggest having some fun with planting bullshit stories to test the hypothesis.
    Quite possibly. Look earlier in the thread for both sides accused of fake NHS propaganda.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1

    Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.

    Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.

    Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.
    It's disturbing that it appears to be so difficult to work out when the peak occurred or if it's occurred.
  • A very long time lurker here, tempted out of cover by Mike's post above.

    Very happy indeed to make a small contribution for the many years of reading pleasure, and (more often than not) genuine insight this site and comments have given me. I stumbled across PB and read avidly in the run up to the 2008 Presidential. It feels a lifetime ago, but most things do these days.

    I suppose my way of saying that while I even feel a little guilty at not contributing to discussion here, that discussion is appreciated by more than you might expect, so, thank you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Andrew said:


    The other Piers is worse for your sanity. Colour Out Of Space is a quiet, amusing tale by comparison....

    I'm tending towards the opinion that anyone called Piers needs to be locked up. There's something wrong with them.
    I quite agree. When I am Absolutely Not A Dictator of Britain.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    I agree. 111 should not be directing people with cough and fever to self isolste. They should be booked to a drive in swab centre. Too many late presentations, IMO.
    That’s one of the theories about Germany’s apparently low death rate. They actively seek to get Covid patients into hospital asap.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1

    Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.

    Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.

    Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.
    It's disturbing that it appears to be so difficult to work out when the peak occurred or if it's occurred.
    I’m not sure it really matters. As both agreed, what counts is how we manage things post lockdown, whether that’s in a week’s time or a month.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....
    Bit drastic, surely ?
    Harsh but fair...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....
    Bit drastic, surely ?
    Harsh but fair...
    Results oriented ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19

    As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.
    Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shops
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Difficult to stick to it, since we have yet to practice it.
    But I agree it is one to be followed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....
    Bit drastic, surely ?
    Harsh but fair...
    Results oriented ?
    Got to make that 4hr target! :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19

    As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.
    Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shops
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Possibly. But for whatever reasons, we can't do mass testing in this country as we don't have the kit/chemicals/swabs/gloves/whatever today's excuse is
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.
    This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.
    The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.
    Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....
    Bit drastic, surely ?
    Harsh but fair...
    Results oriented ?
    Got to make that 4hr target! :)
    Good to know that best practice is so deeply embedded. :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1

    Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.

    Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.

    Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.
    It's disturbing that it appears to be so difficult to work out when the peak occurred or if it's occurred.
    In Leicester, I reckon it peaked Holy Week. We do have some fairly poorly patients in ICU though, and not easy to wean off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Andy_JS said:

    Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.

    I should hope no one would be surprised at that reaction. People don't remember nuance, but they remember the very clear central messaging and that would definitely see that happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    A very long time lurker here, tempted out of cover by Mike's post above.

    Very happy indeed to make a small contribution for the many years of reading pleasure, and (more often than not) genuine insight this site and comments have given me. I stumbled across PB and read avidly in the run up to the 2008 Presidential. It feels a lifetime ago, but most things do these days.

    I suppose my way of saying that while I even feel a little guilty at not contributing to discussion here, that discussion is appreciated by more than you might expect, so, thank you.

    Good to hear from you, after all these years. Welcome to the front line. :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Doesn't seem like scientists in places with stringent lockdowns are being convinced to change course as a result of Sweden. If the latter are right, most places are doubling down before they find that out.
  • This is one of my personal fears that I seem to know many who have convinced themselves they had the thing back in February or earlier. Wandering round with that degree of assuredness post-lockdown, without testing, is a real risk for the many family reunions we'll be seeing not long after.

    Unfortunately, in the absence of testing, it's hard to persuade them otherwise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128

    https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19

    As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.
    Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shops
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Possibly. But for whatever reasons, we can't do mass testing in this country as we don't have the kit/chemicals/swabs/gloves/whatever today's excuse is
    It has not escaped British eyes that Germany seems to be efficient at these things:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252249517208018944?s=09

    And there is that old polling favourite showing no change:


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1252276937864679424?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited April 2020
    Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52358920
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    kle4 said:

    Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52358920

    I notice that the channel behind the David Icke interview that kicked it all off have doubled down with an Alex Jones interview.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    edited April 2020
    Ah, shucks, no 4th GE in 15 months after all - coalition deal in Israel. And this part makes it sound very good for Netanyahu's longer term prospects, subject to his legal woes.

    Mr Gantz, our correspondent adds, has ditched half of the political alliance he built over three elections - it had fractured under the strain of Mr Netanyahu's manoeuvres, with the coronavirus emergency providing a backdrop of urgency.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52358479
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    kle4 said:

    Doesn't seem like scientists in places with stringent lockdowns are being convinced to change course as a result of Sweden. If the latter are right, most places are doubling down before they find that out.

    Though it does look as if the Swedes are not quite so convinced either. The grass is always greener:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252236927161364482?s=19
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/

    CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.
    Venus very prominent in the west right now.
    Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.
    It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?
    More than 2m apart.
    How would you know, visibility on Venus being so poor?
    Sorry, you’re not coming too. Venus is strictly a one person planet. Get your arse to Mars.
    Surely that should be a one man planet...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/15/domestic-abuse-killings-treble-victims-could-offered-escape/

    Domestic killings up by 250% in lockdown. Horrific statistic which pushes me a long way towards the Swedish approach.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sounding a bit like the Turks aren't overly keen on exporting PPE all of a sudden .....
  • kle4 said:

    Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52358920

    I notice that the channel behind the David Icke interview that kicked it all off have doubled down with an Alex Jones interview.
    I have never understood why London Live is still going. You get the occasional story about them often having no measurable audience.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/10785953/London-Live-broadcast-to-zero-viewers-on-eight-occasions.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    kle4 said:

    Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52358920

    I notice that the channel behind the David Icke interview that kicked it all off have doubled down with an Alex Jones interview.
    I have never understood why London Live is still going. You get the occasional story about them often having no measurable audience.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/10785953/London-Live-broadcast-to-zero-viewers-on-eight-occasions.html
    Just to be clear, don't fancy being sued by London Live owner, I was talking about the YouTube Channel that the interview was from. Why London Live was running that interview I don't know, do they usually show content from London Real? Because if they are, that is a very "interesting" decision.

    London Real is a very very strange YouTube channel. It appears to have long form interviews with plenty of mainstream normal folk, then has an equal number of shall we say fringe individuals.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    What could possibly go wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    What could possibly go wrong.
    Be interesting to see what happens to the digital currency held by those that criticise the government.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    HYUFD said:
    They could call it "extending the transition"?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1252350276549226502?s=20

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1252361232415207433?s=20

    It doesn't sound that different to Germany. Small shops to open in a few weeks, but nothing big like sports, concerts, etc until the Autumn. And continued WFH for people throughout summer (I don't know what Germany's approach on this is).

    Bit worrying that they say it is spreading quickly in hospitals. Care homes are very difficult, but hospitals appear on the surface to have planned, separated out CV from non-CV, etc.
This discussion has been closed.